global majority e-journal -...

Global Majority E-Journal

Volume 1, Number 1 (June 2010)

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About the Global Majority E-Journal The Global Majority E-Journal is published twice a year and freely available online at: http://www.american.edu/cas/economics/ejournal/. The journal publishes articles that discuss critical issues for the lives of the global majority. The global majority is defined as the more than 80 percent of the world’s population living in developing countries. The topics discussed include poverty, population growth, access to safe water, climate change, agricultural development, etc. The articles are based on research papers written by AU undergraduate students (mostly freshmen) as one of the course requirements for AU’s General Education Course: Econ-110—The Global Majority. Editor Dr. Bernhard G. Gunter, Adjunct Associate Professor, Economics Department, American University; Washington, DC; and President, Bangladesh Development Research Center (BDRC), Falls Church, VA, United States. The editor can be reached at [email protected]. Cover Design Based on an animated GIF available as Wikimedia Commons, created in 1998 by Christian Janoff, showing the “Globe” demonstration as it can be found on the Commodore REU 1700/1750 test/demo disk; please see: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Globe.gif. ISSN 2157-1252 Copyright © 2010 by the author(s) for the contents of the articles.

Copyright © 2010 by American University for the journal compilation. All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored or transmitted in any form or by any means without the prior permission in writing from the copyright holder. American University, the editor and the authors cannot be held responsible for errors or any consequences arising from the use of information contained in this journal. The views and opinions expressed are those of the authors and should not be associated with American University.

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Volume 1, Number 1 (June 2010) Contents Sinking the Pearl of the Indian Ocean: Climate Change in Sri Lanka Nazran Baba 4 The Water Crisis in Yemen: Causes, Consequences and Solutions Nicole Glass 17 Indonesia: A Vulnerable Country in the Face of Climate Change Mariah Measey 31 Poverty in Nigeria: Some Dimensions and Contributing Factors Chimobi Ucha 46

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Global Majority E-Journal, Vol. 1, No. 1 (June 2010), pp. 4-16

Sinking the Pearl of the Indian Ocean: Climate Change in Sri Lanka

Nazran Baba

Abstract This article analyzes the impact of climate change on Sri Lanka. It recognizes that climate change is a multidimensional phenomenon which does not only impact the environment but also Sri Lanka’s economy, health and society. The article provides a literature review and some empirical background on Sri Lanka’s greenhouse gas emissions before analyzing the gravity of climate change in Sri Lanka. Sri Lanka’s options to reacting to this global phenomenon via mitigation and adaptation will also be addressed briefly.

I. Introduction Nestled in the middle of the Indian Ocean, the island of Sri Lanka seems distant from the rest of the world. However, climate change is a phenomenon which affects us all. The United States (U.S.) Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) (2009, p. 3) defines climate change as “any distinct change in measures of climate lasting for a long period of time. In other words, climate change means major changes in temperature, rainfall, snow, or wind patterns lasting for decades or longer.”

Out of 149 countries, the Environmental Performance Index (EPI) 2008 ranked Sri Lanka as the 50th best country in terms of environmental health and ecosystem vitality.1 According to most data, Sri Lanka’s greenhouse gas (GHG) emission levels are one of the lowest in the world. Sri Lanka’s Ministry of Forestry & Environment (2000, p. xi) states “Sri Lanka’s contribution to the emission of green house gases is considered negligible. Nonetheless the adverse impacts of the anticipated changes arising out of 1 The EPI is compiled by Yale and Columbia University based on 25 performance indicators tracked across ten policy categories covering both environmental public health and ecosystem vitality. Climate Change is one of the ten policy categories and accounts for 10 percent of the EPI. Due to Sri Lanka’s relatively low carbon dioxide emission, Sri Lanka ranks even higher if just looking at the climate change category. For further details, see: http://epi.yale.edu/.

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global warming are likely to be significant.”2 Sri Lanka will be drastically affected by climate change. Rising water levels, shifting temperatures, eroding beaches, dying forests, increased weather anomalies, and natural disasters are just a few dreadful outcomes the island will soon come to face; some of which, it has already had its fair share of.

This article analyzes Sri Lanka’s GHG emissions and the impact climate change has on Sri Lanka. Climate change is a multidimensional phenomenon which does not only impact the environment. It also has a major impact on Sri Lanka’s agriculture, tourism, society, and health. These topics will be considered individually even though they are interrelated. For instance, when climate change affects the environment, it also affects the economy since a part of the economy is dependent on the primary sector such as agriculture and fisheries for instance. Furthermore, the article will summarize Sri Lanka’s proposed plans for reacting to this global crisis in relation to the various measures and proposals that have been adopted and discussed by the government of Sri Lanka.

The article is structured as follows. Following this introduction, the next section provides a brief review of the Sri Lanka specific literature. Section III provides some empirical background by reviewing Sri Lanka’s GHG emissions, while Section IV analyzes the effects climate change has on Sri Lanka. The fifth section summarizes some of Sri Lanka’s options to mitigate and adapt, while the last section provides some conclusions. II. Literature Review A particularly valuable news article, entitled “Sri Lanka: Climate Change Worse than Civil War – UN Expert” has been written by Samath (2007). It discusses in some detail the various impact climate change may have on Sri Lanka if conditions continue in the same manner. Samath writes that even though the civil war raged on for the battle of land, because of the dire consequences of climate change that very land they fought for might be underwater in a matter of time. The article goes on to bring numerous statistics and important information on the current situation and the future prospects of not only Sri Lanka but the impact on India as well. The article touches on health related issues, environmental impact, and even the economic sectors. It provides excellent points, statistics, and arguments.

Another source which has been considered is the official meteorological department website of Sri Lanka (http://www.meteo.gov.lk), which boasts a variety of information. The site documents various data relating to weather, climate, and geography. It uses this data to link different topics which have a relevant impact on Sri Lanka. Building on this, there is a myriad of information on the impact of climate change on Sri Lanka as well. The site provides over ten different papers by experts in their fields which explain impacts, adaptation strategies, and mitigation aimed at climate change. The papers deal with essays on topics such as health, agriculture, energy, industry, environment, and weather.

Alwis (2004) wrote a meticulous paper entitled “Sri Lanka: Its Industry and Challenges in the Face of Climate Change.”Alwis discusses how Sri Lanka’s industrial sector is the

2 See Ministry of Environment & Forest (2000), page 19.

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real determinant of how Sri Lanka should react to climate change. He emphasizes that Sri Lanka’s efforts to battle climate change needs to be crafted according to its own situation, not a policy adopted for/by any other country. The paper brings in detailed statistics and reasoning about industry while clearly linking it to climate change. This important link has been very useful for this article’s subject matter as well.

Lastly, we turn to Sri Lanka’s Initial National Communication under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change: Sri Lanka. This report, prepared by Sri Lanka’s Ministry of Environment & Forest (2000) spans 122 pages, and provides detailed information on many issues related to Sri Lanka and climate change. Data includes general figures of Sri Lanka’s resources, geographical, and environmental information. It also includes various climate change related data on Sri Lanka, like GHG levels, temperature, rainfalls. Mitigation efforts and adaptive strategies are also discussed in depth in this report. III. Empirical Background: Sri Lanka’s Greenhouse Gas (GHG)

Emissions While there are a variety of GHGs, carbon dioxide (CO2) is due to its high share in GHGs the most important one. CO2 is also the GHG for which the data availability is the least limited. The following sub-sections concentrate therefore on CO2 emissions. Given that most of the world’s CO2 emissions are due to human activities, a country’s CO2 emissions are determined mostly by its population size, its economic size (measured by a country’s gross domestic product (GDP)), the sectoral shares of GDP, and what kind of energy a country uses. What kind of energy a country uses largely determines a country’s carbon intensity (defined as CO2 emissions per unit of energy use), with fossil fuels being the most carbon intensive energy. Related to income per capita and energy use are living standards and life styles.

Sri Lanka has a lot of poor people. Therefore, energy is rationed and people aim at cost effectiveness with minimal wastage. The same is true to some degree for India and China which are emerging economies, but still have a lot of poor people. Countries like the United States have relatively few poor people, and the average person is considered to be well off. Hence, people in the United States tend to use more energy.

To address some of these interrelated and complex issues, the first sub-section looks at Sri Lanka’s total CO2 emissions, the second sub-section looks at Sri Lanka’s CO2 emissions in per capita terms, the third sub-section reviews Sri Lanka’s CO2 emissions per GDP, while the last sub-section summarizes some the issues related to Sri Lanka’s energy supply. III.1. Sri Lanka’s Total CO2 Emissions Figure 1 depicts the current CO2 emissions of Sri Lanka and three other countries: India, China and the United States. India has been chosen since it is Sri Lanka’s neighbor, and thereby ties in regional considerations of South Asia. China and the United States have been chosen in regard to the fact that they are the two biggest emitters of CO2.

Sri Lanka’s CO2 emissions amounts currently to about 12,000 kilo tons (kt), which is so marginal relative to the other three countries, that it is barely visible in Figure 1. Indeed,

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Sri Lanka’s produces less than 0.1 percent of the world’s CO2 emissions. The United States and China combined produce almost half (42 percent) of the world’s GHG emission, while India accounts for 5.3 percent. Hence, Sri Lanka is not producing GHGs that induce global warming and climate change. Yet, as Figure 2 shows, Sri Lanka’s CO2 emissions have grown considerably over time. Indeed, the 2004 value is with 11,524 kt more than three times the 1970 value (3,593 kt). We will discuss some of the main reasons for this rapid increase in the following sub-sections.

Figure 1: CO2 emissions (in 1000s on tons (kt)) in 2006

Source: Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center (CDIAC), as quoted on Wikipedia;

available at: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_carbon_dioxide_emissions.

Figure 2: Sri Lanka’s CO2 emissions (kt), 1970-2004

Source: World Bank (2008) World Development Indicators 2008, CD-Rom.

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III.2. Sri Lanka’s per capita CO2 Emissions As is shown in Figure 3, taking population size into account, Sri Lanka’s CO2 emissions become a bit more significant, especially if comparing Sri Lanka to India. On the other hand, the figure also shows that correcting for population, China’s CO2 emission was less than a quarter of the U.S. emission in 2004. Figure 4 shows that while Sri Lanka’s per capita CO2 emissions remained—despite some volatility—at about the same level during the 1970s and 1980s, it has started to grow since the early 1990s. As will be shown in the next sub-section, this is at least partly due to increasing GDP growth.

Figure 3: Per capita CO2 emissions (in tons) in 2004


Figure 4: Sri Lanka’s per capita CO2 emissions (in tons), 1970-2004


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III.3. Sri Lanka’s CO2 Emissions per GDP Sri Lanka is not an industrialized country; instead it falls into the category of developing nations. Within the last few decades, the country has seen shifting trends in relation to its industry. While Sri Lanka had previously a mostly agrarian economy, the service and manufacturing sectors dominate the present economy. However, as a whole the industrial sector has been neglected, at least partly due to the ongoing civil conflict and a lack of capital. Sri Lanka’s relatively low share of industry is a main reason for Sri Lanka’s low carbon emission per unit of GDP (shown in Figure 5) as well as over time (Figure 6).

Figure 5: CO2 emissions (kg per 2005 PPP $ of GDP) in 2004


Figure 6: Sri Lanka’s CO2 emissions (kg per 2005 PPP $ of GDP), 1980-2004


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III.4. Sri Lanka’s Energy Supply As shown in Figure 7, most (59 percent) of Sri Lanka’s energy comes from clean sources like biomass and hydro. Biomass is a popular option because Sri Lanka has a high rural population, amount to 85 percent (see World Bank, 2008). Biomass is cheap and easy to attain and is therefore viable for the mostly poor rural population.

Figure 7: Energy Supply in Sri Lanka (in percent), 1999

Source: Compiled by author based on data provided in World Resources Institute (2003).

On the other hand, as is shown in Figure 8, in the United States, 86 percent of the U.S. energy supply comes from fossil fuels (comprising coal, oil, petroleum, and natural gas products), which emit high levels of GHGs (i.e., are energy intensive). On the other hand, renewable energy contributes to only 7 percent. This startling difference between Sri Lanka and the United States explains to some degree why the United States’ GHG emission is so high. Based on World Bank (2008), the percentages of energy generated in 2005 from fossil fuels in Sri Lanka, India, China and the United States amounted, respectively, to 44, 68, 84 and 86 percent.

Figure 8: Energy Supply in the United States, 2006

Source: http://www.eia.doe.gov/cneaf/solar.renewables/page/prelim_trends/images/h1_08.gif,

based on data provided by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (2007).

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IV. Is Sri Lanka Feeling the Effects of Climate Change? The short answer to this question is yes. The longer answer is to look at some tangible evidence in the form of long-term weather data and the climate change impacts on Sri Lanka’s environment, agriculture, tourism, health, and society. IV.1. Impact on Sri Lanka’s weather and environment Let’s consider first Sri Lanka’s temperature, which relates to the most discussed aspect of climate change: global warming. According to the Department of Meteorology in Sri Lanka, annual mean air temperature has shown significant increases in recent decades (see Basnayake et al., 2007). The rate of increase of mean air temperature from 1961-1990 has been identified as 0.016 °C per year. Annual mean maximum air temperatures have shown increasing trends in island-wide monitoring stations. The maximum rate of increase has been about 0.021 °C per year at Puttalam. Colder areas in the country which are located in the more hilly regions seem to show greater increases than low lying areas.

Unfortunately, a similar trend is also noted when considering rainfall. Annual average rainfall over Sri Lanka has been decreased to an amount of 144 millimeters. This is a decrease of about seven percent. This data has been monitored once again, from 1961 to 1990 and has been compared to the period of 1931 to 1960. As mentioned in the introduction, climate change is only considered climate change when there is “significant change” which occurs for an “extended period.” Weather anomalies compared on a year-to-year basis is irrelevant. However, this data has been compiled and analyzed on the basis of decades. The results clearly show that Sri Lanka is experiencing change in its climate.

Evidently, climate change also takes its toll on the environment. GHG emissions increase temperature levels and thereby melt ice caps. Islands like the Maldives and Sri Lanka face the brunt of this phenomenon. According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) (2008, p. 2), the global average sea level has risen since 1961 at an average rate of 1.8 millimeter/year and since 1993 at 3.1 millimeter/year (with contributions from thermal expansion, melting glaciers and ice caps, and the polar ice sheets). With a rise in sea level, Sri Lanka is impacted in many ways such as coastal erosion; natural habitat destruction; intrusion of salinity and of course the most dire consequence, shoreline retreat.

Sri Lanka has been experiencing a staggering coastal erosion rate of 0.30-0.35 meter a year. This has been said to adversely impact almost 55 percent of the shoreline. The coastal belt is one of the major lifelines in Sri Lanka’s economy. Geographically, it covers 24 percent of the total land area and 32 percent of the total population. This negative phenomenon will have catastrophic affects. Tourism, fisheries, human settlements and rich natural habitat are all at danger from rise in sea levels. Low lying areas of Sri Lanka like regions in the north and east will be the first to be affected. The coastal belt also houses 65 percent of the urban land area including the capital Colombo. IV.2. Impact on Agriculture Agriculture will be severely affected by climate change. This sector is impacted from various levels. The erratic weather is one such instance. Dr. B. V. R. Punyawardena, who

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is the Head of Agro-Climatology, Natural Resources Management Centre in Sri Lanka says: “variability of both summer and winter monsoon rains and rains of convectional origin has increased significantly during recent decades. As a result, both extremes, i.e. water scarcity and excess water has become a recurrent problem in crop production in Sri Lanka”.3

Sri Lanka harvests crops according to ancient seasons which were determined over 2000 years ago by ancient kings. They are called “Yala” and “Maha.” Previously, these two seasons were always predicted for the same time and has been so for the thousands of years. However, recent decades have seen shifts in these seasons which are based on the timings of monsoons. This is creating a negative impact on farmers who are unable to harvest crops in their correct times and then fall into financial trouble as well apart from a low yield. What is even more frightening is that Sri Lanka’s Meteorological Department released a statement saying: “this (erratic weather) will result in paddy farming output falling by 20-30 percent in the next 20 to 30 years. The output will begin to drop gradually over the next few years.”4 Agriculture employs 35 percent of the working population in Sri Lanka. The consequences of such a negative impact will be disastrous. IV.3. Impact on Tourism Tourism is the main source of foreign reserves for the island. Sun, sea and sand have been an effective advertising campaign when Sri Lanka is considered. However, implementations of adaptation measures like buffer zones at the beaches will negatively impact the tourism industry. Coral reefs, which are another main attraction of the island, are also at risk with the increase in sea levels and sea water temperatures. IV.4. Impact on Health Health risks are important factors to consider when looking at the impact of climate change. In Sri Lanka’s Initial National Communication under the UNFCCC (see Ministry of Forestry & Environment, 2000) the following health hazards are listed as a result of different aspects of climate change.

• As a result of temperature increase, people working in Sri Lanka may face various types of illnesses. With poor working conditions in this developing country, people according to their fitness levels will be more susceptible to dehydration and fatigue.

• The impacts of droughts will human health, sanitation, diseases with dirty water such as cholera, hepatitis, typhoid etc., while the collection of water in rock pools will encourage diseases like dengue from mosquitoes which Sri Lanka is facing even today.

• High intensity rainfalls will damage people houses and may culminate in floods which breed different diseases on. Heaps of human settlements may be dislodged creating a nationwide emergency. This occurred in May 2003 in the Ratnapura

3 Punyawardena (undated); available at: http://www.meteo.gov.lk/Non_%20Up_Date/pages/CC%20&%20agreculture.pdf. 4 See Samath (2007).

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District where the whole town was submerged and the issue became a national emergency. It was only overshadowed by the December 2004 Tsunami.

Considering the various outcomes of climate change on Sri Lanka’s health sector is alarming. The country already has an over taxed government dominated (majority) health care system which is struggling to meet growing demands. This oncoming crisis will only exacerbate and already waning health care system. In effect, it will strain essential funds of the country, which can be allocated for development of the country.

Though Sri Lanka has a youth bulge in its population pyramid, in the next 10-20 years there will be a higher ageing population than there is today. Older people are more susceptible to health hazards from climate change than the working population. Thus, this will be another additional burden on the Sri Lankan economy as a whole if efforts aren’t taken to mitigate these negative effects. IV.5. Social Implications Another impact that climate change can have over society is creating conflict. Sri Lanka ended a civil war which has been raging on for the last 25 years. However, sea-level rises will mean that the northern and eastern areas of Sri Lanka which were fought over will be the first to be submerged. This is because geographically, the coastal areas in the northern and eastern parts of the island are flatter than the rest of the island. This also explains why these areas faced the brunt of the devastating Tsunami. Rajendra Pachauri, chairman of IPCC, said at a press conference in New Delhi that up to 60 million coastal people in the low-lying areas of South Asia could be displaced by global warming by the end of the 21st century.5 The necessary migration of people from the submerged areas is likely to make the civil conflict resurface in Sri Lanka. V. Options for Sri Lanka’s Mitigation and Adaptation Efforts Sri Lanka’s role in causing climate change is negligible. Hence, efforts to mitigate the process take a back seat in comparison to adaptive strategies. Nevertheless, this is not to say that Sri Lanka is not playing its role in being environmentally friendly. To the contrary, it has recently stepped up measures to increase healthy eco-friendly practices. Below are a few examples of the efforts Sri Lanka is turning to and already using to help reduce the occurrence and impacts of climate change. V.1. Mitigation Efforts Despite some deforestation,6 Sri Lanka still has enough forests that make Sri Lanka carbon neutral. Forests are a vital component in helping mitigate the negative impact of climate change. Sri Lanka is able to proudly boast that it is one of very few countries which function as a carbon sink. According to Responsible Tourism Partnership Sri Lanka (2008), Sri Lanka’s 2 million hectares of forest store approximately 21 tons of CO2 per hectare, for a total of about 40 million tons of carbon. In addition to Sri Lanka

5 See Samath (2007). 6 Based on the World Development Indicators 2008, Sri Lanka reduced its forests from 36 percent of its total land area in 1990 to 29 percent of its total land area in 2006.

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being a carbon sink, Sri Lanka’s main mitigation efforts are concentrated on energy, industry, and agriculture.

• Energy – Fuel switching with more fuels which emit less GHG to the environment; using efficient new technology which reduces power and enhances efficiency; energy conservation measures through florescent light bulbs and less wastage; investing in alternative renewable energy sources such as solar, wind and biomass.

• Industry – Change in industrial policies to encourage “soft industries” which are more environmentally friendly; enhancing productivity; pollution control through both monitoring and waste management; energy efficiency; emission control.

• Agriculture – Establishing forestry and vegetation on non-forested lands; promotion of mixed cropping to ensure fertile soil in the long-run; introducing changes I irrigation and fertilizers to reduce methane emissions from for instance wet rice cultivation.

Furthermore, it is worth to mention that Sri Lanka ratified the Kyoto Protocol7 when it signed the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) on November 23rd, 1993. It belongs to the Non-Annex 1 list of countries which do not have legally binding targets to where they have to reduce their GHG emissions, unlike most developed countries. However, every country has to submit an annual GHG inventory. Finally, the ability within the UNFCCC to trade carbon credit proves advantageous for countries like Sri Lanka since there is a form of revenue. Sri Lanka can trade its extra credits with an Annex 1 country that is looking for excess credits. V.2. Adaptation Responses Sri Lanka’s adaptation responses are concentrated mostly in the coastal zones, in the forest sector, health sector, education sector, and by building awareness.

• Coastal Zone – Accommodate sea level rise with new coastal structures; evaluation of engineering new engineering methods to counter threat; preparing back limits that take account of coastal erosion.

• Forestry – Identifying vulnerable areas and preparing contingency plans; promoting alternative timber such as rubber; ensuring conservation of natural forests and banning deforestation for commercial practices.

• Health Sector – Preparing with crisis management techniques before hand; enacting and introducing local standards for “hot” working environments; upgrading safe drinking water and sanitation facilities in the rural areas.

• Education – Educating school children and youth about the current climate crisis and encouraging healthy practices through all aspects of life.

7 On December 11, 1997, the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) was linked to what is known as the Kyoto Protocol in Kyoto, Japan. It is an international agreement that sets specific targets for 37 industrialized countries and the European community for reducing GHG emissions, roughly by about 5 percent. As of November 2009, 187 states have ratified this protocol. Surprisingly, this excludes the United States, the most noted polluter in the modern world.

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• Awareness – Advocating for efforts which help reduce the negative impact of climate change. Awareness is created through various measures such as fundraisers, fairs, concerts, live events, seminars, posters etc…

VI. Conclusion “Resolving the present environmental crisis is not just a question of ethics but a question of our own survival” writes the Dalai Lama (2004, p. iii). This beautiful quote summarizes the gravity of climate change in a nutshell. Climate change hinders our survival in many ways as it has physical and psychological effects. Sri Lanka is in great need of change. It needs to adopt practices that will not only ensure reductions in GHG emission levels but more importantly, adapt measures to ensure a safe future. From this article, it can be assimilated that climate change is directly affecting Sri Lanka, whereby we looked specifically as the impact on Sri Lanka’s environment, agriculture, tourism, health, and society.

Sri Lanka is a developing nation which needs increased domestic and foreign investments to further its infrastructure and industry in order to hop on the band-wagon of rapidly developing nations such as Brazil, India and China. Climate change looks like it can hinder this process dramatically if efforts are not taken to reduce present day trends. Leading stakeholders in this issue like the United States, European Union, and China, along with most other developed nations have to consider the negative aspects of their industries and curb these industries in a way which will reduce the impact of climate change. It is the less developed nations like Sri Lanka which will suffer first and most.

Sri Lanka seems to be playing its role well in terms of environmental indicators but it still has a long way to go. There are a myriad of policies and measures the government of Sri Lanka and other international organizations are implementing to help reduce the negative impacts from climate change in addition to the points outlined, but were not mentioned in this article. The most effective way to deal with this crisis is that the top GHG emitting countries cut back their emissions and that Sri Lanka starts to adapt to climate change before it is too late. Even though Sri Lanka has an infinitesimal role in mitigating this global threat, Sri Lanka and the whole world will nevertheless have to face this challenge as one.

References Alwis, Ajith de (2004) “Sri Lanka: Its Industry and Challenges in the Face of Climate

Change”, in: Velma I. Grover (ed.) Climate Change Five Years after Kyoto (New York: Science Publishers).

Basnayake, B. R. S. B; K. R. Abjhyasinghe; W. L Sumathipala; B. V. R. P Punyawardene; N. Perera; and P. G Joseph (2007) Climate Change in Sri Lanka: Impacts, Adaptation & Mitigation : Proceedings of the National Conference on Climate Change (Colombo: Dept. of Meteorology, Centre for Climate Change Studies; and Kobe: Asia-Pacific Network for Global Change Research).

Dalai Lama (The) (2004) “Foreword”, in: Velma I. Grover (ed.) Climate Change Five Years after Kyoto (New York: Science Publishers).

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Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) (2008) Climate Change 2007: Synthesis Report -- Summary for Policymakers (Geneva, Switzerland: IPCC).

Ministry of Forestry & Environment, Government of Sri Lanka (2000) Initial National Communication under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change: Sri Lanka (Colombo, Sri Lanka: Ministry of Forestry & Environment, Final Draft, 27. October); available at: http://unfccc.int/resource/docs/natc/srinc1.pdf .

Punyawardena, B. V. R. (undated) “Impact of Climate Change on Agriculture in Sri Lanka and Possible Response Strategies”; available at: http://www.meteo.gov.lk/Non_%20Up_Date/pages/CC%20&%20agreculture.pdf.

Responsible Tourism Partnership Sri Lanka (2008) “Carbon-neutral Sri Lanka – Long-haul destination of the developing world”, Colombo: Responsible Tourism Partnership Sri Lanka, Press Release of March 2008; available at: http://www.responsibletourismsrilanka.org/media_releases_carbon_neutral.html.

Samath, Feizal (2007) “Sri Lanka: Climate Change Worse than Civil War - UN Expert”, IPS Inter Press Service (April 24); available at: http://ipsnews.net/news.asp?idnews=37463.

U.S. Energy Information Administration (2007) Renewable Energy Consumption and Electricity Preliminary 2006 Statistics (Washington, DC: U.S. Energy Information Administration, August); available at: http://www.eia.doe.gov/fuelrenewable.html.

U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) (2009) Frequently Asked Questions about Global Warming and Climate Change: Back to Basics (Washington, DC: EPA, April); available at: http://www.epa.gov/climatechange/downloads/Climate_Basics.pdf.

World Bank (2008) World Development Indicators 2008 CD-Rom (Washington, DC: The World Bank).

World Resources Institute (WRI) (2003) “Earth Trends, Country Profiles, Energy and Resources: Sri Lanka” (Washington, DC: WRI); available at: http://earthtrends.wri.org/pdf_library/country_profiles/ene_cou_144.pdf.

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Global Majority E-Journal, Vol. 1, No. 1 (June 2010), pp. 17-30

The Water Crisis in Yemen: Causes, Consequences and Solutions

Nicole Glass

Abstract Yemen, a country located in a dry and semi-arid region of the Middle East, is already facing a severe water crisis. Mostly due to high population growth, misguided agricultural development and the growth of qat, a lack of law enforcement to regulate water use, and a vulnerable climate to climate change, the crisis may soon reach catastrophic levels. Beyond a brief description of the main causes of Yemen’s water crisis, this article also provides a brief overview of the literature, some empirical background, an analysis on the consequences, and a discussion of some of the proposed solutions to Yemen’s water crisis.

I. Introduction Yemen is a country with one of the highest rates of population growth in the world. It is also the country with the highest rate of exhaustion of water sources in the Middle East. Sana’a is the only capital city in the world that may run out of water within the next decade. The combination of high population growth and exhaustion of water has contributed to a severe water crisis in Yemen that may be one of the most catastrophic in the world. Unless immediate action is taken, Yemen may experience mass fatalities caused by dehydration of its people.

Abdul Kareem Al-Eryani, a former Prime Minister of Yemen, said: “I am very pessimistic, frankly, for the next two to three years. Nature and man are squeezing Yemen. And I think this alarm bell should ring in various corners around us and in the United States as well.”1 The World Bank (2006) described Yemen as the single largest development challenge in the Middle East. Since the 1970s, Yemen has undergone a number of rapid social and economic changes that the government could not control. Many of these changes have led to water shortages. 1 Kenyon (2008), last paragraph of news report.

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According to Al-Asbahi (2005), Yemen’s total renewable water resource amounts to 2.5 billion cubic meters per year, while the total demand is estimated to be 3.4 billion cubic meters per year, with 900 million cubic meters per year being covered from deep aquifers. Hence, ground water aquifers decline one to seven meters each year, with very rare recharge due to droughts that have been intensified by climate change. Given that the consumption of water is exceeding the rate of natural recharge, it is only a matter of time before the existing groundwater is all used up.

This article is about the causes, effects and proposed solutions to the Yemen water crisis. The next section provides a brief overview of the literature. The third section provides some empirical background on Yemen’s water shortage. The subsequent three sections review and discuss respectively the causes, consequences and some of the proposed solutions to Yemen’s water crisis. The last section provides some conclusions. II. Literature Review

Besides a variety of news reports, there is very little literature covering Yemen’s water crisis. Van der Gun (2009) looks specifically at Yemen as an example of how climate change impacts alluvial aquifers in arid regions. The Human Development Report 2006 on the global water crisis also provides various references to Yemen, though without making Yemen a focal point.2

The most comprehensive information on water resources in Yemen has been provided by Al-Asbahi (2005). He introduces the topic by illustrating how the scarcity of water in Yemen has become a water crisis and describes then the use and development of Yemen’s water resources. Al-Asbahi provides also detailed information on the institutional background of water resources management in Yemen and discusses Yemen’s water resources strategies, policies and legislations. He proposes various solutions to the water crisis, including rainwater harvesting and desalination of seawater as a resource.

A number of news organizations have published articles about the water crisis in Yemen. Most of them provide information on the causes and impact of the crisis. Some of the news reports also propose some solutions. The following news reports have been some of the most recent ones.

• Kasinof (2009) provides a report published by ABC news entitled “Yemen Water Crisis Fuels Conflict.” This report discusses how the lack of water is causing conflicts in Yemen – from demonstrations, to small riots, to an intensified war between the government and a group of rebels. Kasinof (2009) also warns that if the water crisis is not solved, current conflicts may spin out of control, and new conflicts may arise. When it comes down to survival, people will fight to stay alive – and that can cause anything from an argument to a war.

• United Press International (UPI) Science News (2009) provides information on the tensions and conflicts induced by water shortages, and gives statistics on the severity of the crisis. “Water is definitely a security problem in the region,” Samir Tariq, director of the Orient Center for Strategic Studies, told UPI.

2 See United Nations Development Program (UNDP) (2006).

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• Kenyon (2008) provides interviews with the Yemeni population about the deterioration of plants and agriculture in the country and other physical changes that have occurred as a result of decreased water availability.

• Carter (2009) provides information on how the Obama administration is willing to help Yemen financially – but only if Yemen cooperates with the United States in relation to capturing terrorists.

• Lyon (2009) and Hill (2009) give a general overview of the situation in Yemen and particularly Sana’a, the capitol city that is most affected by the water crisis and destined to run dry in a decade unless immediate preventative action is taken.

• Al-Omari (2008) and especially Wardam (2009) discuss Yemen’s climate vulnerability to global warming, which severely worsens the water crisis.

III. Empirical Background Yemen is located in a dry and semi-arid region of the Middle East, where the average annual rainfall ranges from 500 to 800 mm in the high lands, 40 to 100 mm in the coastal areas and 50 mm in the desert areas (Al-Omari, 2008). Unlike other Middle-Eastern countries like Lebanon, Syria and Egypt, Yemen has no rivers. It depends on rainwater as well as underground water. Yemen’s water shortage is far worse than that of any other country in the Middle East. The average person in the Middle East has 1,250 millimeter (mm) of water per year. The average person in Yemen has 140 mm of water per year. Figure based on WDI.

Water availability in Yemen is decreasing every year. The World Bank reports that in the year 1990, 71 percent of the Yemeni population had access to water. In 2004, this figure decreased to 67 percent. This does not follow the pattern of water availability in the region (Middle East and North Africa), where the water availability has been increasing from 87.5 percent of the population in 1990 to 89.5 percent in 2004. Yemen’s water availability per capita is the lowest in the region as well as in the world.

In Yemen, urban areas have greater access to water than rural areas. However, the decrease in water availability is more drastic in urban areas. Water availability in urban areas decreased from 84 percent in 1990 to 71 percent in 2004. In rural areas, this figure decreased from 68 to 65 percent. At the present time, cities still have more water availability than rural areas – but at the rate of decreasing availability, this will soon change (World Bank).

Table 1 shows the sectoral use of water from 1990 to 2010. The table shows that water used for agriculture and irrigation has increased and is expected to increase further from 1990 to 2010. It is also increasing for domestic, urban and rural purposes and industrial and mining purposes. Overall, water use has increased since 1990 and is expected to increase. In 1990, total water use was 2,799 million cubic meters per year. In 2010 it was 3,970 million cubic meters per year – but since availability is declining and population is increasing, Yemen may soon run dry.

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Table 1: Use of Water for a Period of 30 Years (1990-2010)

in Different Water Use Sectors (million cubic meters per year)

Water Use 1990 2000 2005 (estimated)

2010 (estimated)

Agriculture/Irrigation 2,600 3,145 3,235 3,328Domestic/Urban/Rural 168 210 265 552Industrial & Mining 31 45 65 90Total 2,799 3,400 3,565 3,970

Source: Al-Asbahi (2005), Table 1 (p. 4), based on data provided by the TNO Institute of Applied Geo-science.

IV. Causes of the Water Crisis There are five key causes of Yemen’s water crisis: (1) high population growth, (2) misguided agricultural development and policies, (3) the use of water to grow qat, (4) a lack of law enforcement to regulate water use, and (5) a high vulnerability to climate change. IV.1. Population Growth Yemen has one of the highest population growths in the world – and with more people comes the need for more water. Since 1990, the Yemeni population has nearly doubled. The World Bank estimates that in 1990, the population was 12.3 million. The population today is 23.1 million. The population is increasing most rapidly in cities; hence, water availability is decreasing most rapidly in cities. Figure 1 shows the population density of Yemen. It is evident that the majority of the population is clustered in cities like Sana’a, Aden and Ta’izz. Figure 2 shows that Yemen’s annual population growth is amongst the highest in the world. IV.2. Misguided Agricultural Development and Policies In recent years, many Yemenis migrated to neighboring countries, like Saudi Arabia, to work in the oil industry. This stimulated the growth of the Yemeni market, which allowed agricultural technology to develop rapidly. Tractors, chemical inputs and tube well technology were introduced, which steered Yemen away from traditional farming practices and systems of water management. The country could no longer live in balance with its natural resources when these technologies were used.

Furthermore, the government failed to prevent the sinking of wells and regulate groundwater extraction. It implemented policies that encouraged the use of water, including low-interest loans, cheap diesel pricing and public investment in surface or spate irrigation. Because of this, groundwater and surface irrigation have been significantly under priced, causing Yemenis to be wasteful in their use of water (Ward, 2001).

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Figure 1: Population Density

Source: University of Texas Libraries, Perry-Castañeda Library, Map Collection from Yemen (Wall Map, 2002); available at:

http://lib.utexas.edu/maps/middle_east_and_asia/yemen_pop_2002.jpg

Figure 2: Population Growth Rate, 2005-2010

Source: Wikipedia (based on UN data); available at:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_population_growth_rate

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In the 1990s, the Yemeni government had placed import and export bans on certain resources to try to stimulate their economy. The export of fish was temporarily prohibited in 1994, because the country was in short supply of fish. In 1996, there was an import ban on fruits, vegetables and coffee – meaning, importing these products was made illegal (Enders, 2002). This was done to supposedly enhance the economy’s efficiency and growth prospects. Though the ban on fruits and vegetables was lifted in 2000, the damage had already been done in terms of decreasing the groundwater level (Ward, 2001). Furthermore, many farmers continue to grow water-intensive fruits and vegetables as agricultural and trade policies make it highly profitable to grow them. IV.3. Qat and Its Effect on the Crisis More than half of Yemen’s water is used to grow qat (or Khat). Qat is a narcotic drug that is chewed by 80 percent of the Yemeni population. Weir (1981) discusses the impact of qat on the people, the region and water in Yemen. Qat, in the form of chewable leaves, is used to produce excitation, forgo sleep and enhance communication between people. It also reduces feelings of hunger and fatigue – both of which are common in a country as impoverished as Yemen. Addiction to qat is similar to an addiction to cocaine – it is difficult to give up once an individual has started using the drug. Most Yemeni men and some women chew the leaves of this plant every day for its narcotic effect. It is a way of life in Yemen. Qat chewing starts after lunch, the main meal of the day, and continues for the rest of the day. It is a highly social event – families and friends gather in private homes, each bringing their own qat.

According to Worth (2009), farmers harvest this plant to make profit – and use the already-scare supplies of water to do so. Although the government has tried to limit the growth of qat, to preserve water – no one is listening. Farmers are unwilling to give up this crop because it is often their only source of income, and the majority of the population is addicted to this drug. Qat is one of the major causes of the water crisis because the crop is sucking up most of Yemen’s groundwater. About 90 percent of the nation’s groundwater is currently used to irrigate qat (Hill, 2008). “The increase in qat cultivation is having a huge impact on the groundwater (stock),” said Noori Gamal, senior hydro-geologist at the Ministry of Water and Environment. According to a news report by McGrath (2009), agriculture accounts for about 90 percent of Yemen’s groundwater consumption, and at least 30 percent of this is used just for growing qat. IV.4. Lack of Law Enforcement The Yemeni government also lacks law enforcement to prevent water from being wasted. Wells are being drilled illegally into natural groundwater aquifers. This is happening at an alarming rate. Leaky pipes are common, sometimes wasting up to 60 percent of the water passing through them (Kasinof, 2009). In some basins (like the Sa’adh basin), Yemenis must drill up to 800 m in depth to reach any water. In any case, it is clear that the lack of law enforcement and flawed policies have contributed to the water crisis – which could have been prevented, or at least be less serious, if the government had implemented laws and policies that would have limited water use.

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IV.5. Climate Vulnerability Climate change is drastically affecting Yemen’s water availability. The summary of the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) (2008) came to the conclusion that the climate in the Middle East and North African region will become even hotter and drier. As detailed in van der Gun (2009), this will increase the occurrence of droughts, potentially destroy agriculture, reduce tourism and cause rising sea levels and flooding in coastal regions.

To reduce the severity of climate change in this region, which includes Yemen, the World Bank will partner with affected nations to help them adapt in three ways:

• The first is infrastructure investment. Projects must be completed in ways that will limit their vulnerability to climate change. For example, buildings must be designed so that they will survive the changing climate. Building near the coast is discouraged, to avoid destruction due to flooding. The World Bank has $1.1 billion in its budget to help affected countries with their infrastructure investment.

• The second is building awareness and knowledge. The public needs to be informed of climate change and how to adapt to it. The World Bank is currently building a program in the Middle East and North African region for technical assistance on climate change adaptation.

• The third is policy reform. Countries that are severely affected by climate change need to change some of their policies in order to adapt. Fiscal reform (government spending and revenue collection) would be useful in improving efficiency of land use and the use of water and energy. Not only would this make for a more sustainable environment, but it would also free up public funds that could instead be used to protect the most vulnerable social groups from climate change (like the poor).

Agriculture constitutes 15 percent of Yemen’s GDP. The government is worried that climate change will decrease the frequency and amount of rainfall, thereby destroying the country’s agriculture. This would not only be a water crisis, but also a food and economic crises. The World Bank is helping farmers in Yemen by teaching them strategies to conserve and use biodiversity to make agriculture less vulnerable to climate change. The strategy emphasizes the conservation of agro biodiversity and developing coping mechanisms with climate change. V. Consequences of the Water Crisis V.1. Decline in Water, Tourism and Food

Yemen is the Arab world’s poorest country. The average person in Yemen survives on one-fifth the amount of water that the World Health Organization considers adequate. In Sana’a, some residents receive piped city water once every nine days – others get none at all. The following are some quotes of what had been said on this issue:

• “Yemen’s water share per capita is under 100 cubic meters a year, compared to the water poverty line of 1,000 cubic meters,” said Hosny Khordagui, Head of the

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United Nations Development Program’s water governance program (see Lyon, 2009).

• Yemen is running out of water. “The catastrophe is coming, but we don’t know when,” said Abu Hatim from the World Bank. “Without water, peoples’ health will suffer and many may not survive.”3

• “This year, with no rain, nothing’s growing – the coffee, the corn, the wheat, the khat – nothing” said Sheikh Abdullah Hussein Khalil, a resident in the Haraz Mountains. “A couple of years ago we might get as many as 150 tourists in a day, sometimes twice that. But now it’s only a few and some days none at all.”4

• The Haraz Mountains used to be lush and green, with fruit orchards, coffee bushes and qat trees. Now, the mountains are a hazy brown with a few blackened areas where a farmer has given up for the season and burned the land. The sheep are starving and thin, looking for something to eat (Kenyon, 2008).

• Based on Kenyon (2008) a shepherdess in the mountains said that five out of 25 of her sheep have died out of dehydration or starvation (which is caused by lack of plants as a result of no water). “It’s hard, very hard this year,” she said. “There’s no rain, and the plants the sheep eat are dry. The sheep are dying, the plants are dying. There’s nothing else to do; we wait for the rain. That’s what we always do.”

Tourists have no will to visit Yemen because of what it has become – largely due to the water crisis. Figure 3 shows the current state of the Haraz Mountains in Yemen. A few years ago, the entire region was green and lush. Now it is dry and barren, because of droughts and the decline in water.

Figure 3: Current State of the Haraz Mountains

Source: Matthew Kuehl for NPR, as posted at: http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=90328214.

3 See Lyon (2009). 4 See Kenyon (2008).

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The land is dried up, the people are thirsty and hungry, poverty is everywhere, and conflicts are continually arising. Without water, crops cannot grow – and without crops, there is no food. Yemenis are not only suffering from a water shortage, but also a food shortage. And with the decline in tourism previously mentioned, Yemen does not have the funds to import food for its people. The cost of staple foods is rising and the economic crisis has hit hard, making it difficult for Yemenis to afford them (Kenyon, 2008). V.2. Water Crisis at the Heart of Yemen’s Conflicts Kasinof (2009) wrote that Yemen’s water crisis has the potential to contribute to the country’s instability and potential trajectory toward failure. According to Kasinof (2009), Abdulrahman Al Eryani, Yemen’s Minister of Water and Environment, said that much of the country’s rising militancy is a conflict over resources. “They manifest themselves in very different ways: tribal conflicts, sectarian conflicts, political conflicts. (…) Really they are all about sharing and participating in the resources of the country, either oil, or water and land.” Current conflicts include a widening armed rebellion in the north and a violent separatist movement in the south. These are intensified by the water crisis, and further prevent the government from entering the regions to try to solve the crisis in an organized manner. Many regions are too dangerous for government engineers or hydrologists to go to.

A study by Sana’a University researchers found that between 70-80 percent of all rural conflicts in Yemen are related to water. A geology professor at the university estimates that Sana’as wells – one of its primary water sources – will run dry by 2015, based on the current water-usage rates. In Taiz, Yemen’s third-largest city, residents are only allowed to access public water tanks once every 45 days. In Sana’a, there were 180 wells ten years ago. Today there are only 80. “We have a water shortage that reflects itself in fighting between the people,” Deputy Planning Minister Hisham Sharaf said.5 According to Lyon (2009), on August 24, 2009, one person was shot dead and three were wounded during water protests in the southern city of Aden. People fear that if the crisis is not solved, more serious conflicts could break out in Yemen to add to the ones that already exist.

The link between Yemen’s water crisis and conflict is not new. Sultan (2004) wrote an article for Asia Times that stated that most of the conflict is between a Shiite Muslim rebel group called Houthis and the Yemeni government. The Houthis are a militant organization from Zaydi Shia who believe they are fighting to defend their community from the government and discrimination. The government believes they are trying to take over and bring Shia religious law to the country. According to Sultan (2004), they are also said to be stirring anti-American sentiment.

Sporadic warfare has occurred in the region for several years, but the conflict has recently intensified. The ongoing conflict has escalated to a war in the Saada province, where the country’s army has launched several offensives against the Houthis. This conflict is restraining the Yemeni government from focusing on the water crisis. In areas where the rebels are present, water usage cannot be regulated. The government needs to use its 5 See ECOWORLD, http://www.ecoworld.com/waters/yemens-water-crisis-mideast-warning.html.

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money and resources to fight the rebels – money that could otherwise be used to reduce the effects of the water crisis. Before a country can focus on sustainability, it needs to maintain peace – at least on its own grounds. VI. Proposed Solutions With no food, no water, and no income from tourism, what are the prospects for Yemen? It is clear that Yemen needs help to prevent that the water crisis reaches catastrophic levels. Foreign assistance could be useful, though has been very little in the past, largely due to political reasons. In 1990, when the United Nations Security Council voted to authorize the use of force to remove Iraqi troops from Kuwait, Yemen was one out of two countries (the other being Cuba) to vote against this resolution. Before 1990, the United States gave $70 million a year to Yemen in foreign aid. After the vote, the aid was eliminated for ten years. By the time the ten years had passed, the Bush administration was in power.

The Bush administration refused to provide assistance to Yemen because it was angry at Yemen’s freeing of convicted terrorists. Yemen released one man from prison who was involved in the 2000 bombing of the USS Cole, which killed 17 American sailors. Yemen is also the homeland of Osama Bin Laden, whose father was born in Yemen. In 2002, a North Korean ship carrying 15 missiles, warheads and chemicals was intercepted on its way to Yemen. This made the United States unsure of Yemen’s cooperation in its fight against Al-Qaeda.

In 2002, the United States decided to give Yemen another chance by giving Yemen $30 million for security assistance. However, the following year ten suspected terrorists disappeared from a high-security prison located in Yemen and guarded by Yemenis. Also, thousands of Yemenis protested the war in Iraq in demonstrations (Carter, 2009). As a result, the Bush administration has been reluctant to grant Yemen any foreign aid – and many of the other Western nations are equally reluctant. This leaves Yemen alone, struggling to survive without foreign resources.

However, there is hope for Yemen when it comes to foreign aid. Yemen is home to al Qaeda – a safe haven for members to hide in the mountains and small villages. Some fear that al Qaeda is increasing their numbers in Yemen and taking over. President Obama sent a letter to the President of Yemen in September (Carter, 2009) in which he offered “that the United States would present an initiative to support Yemen to face all its development obstacles and enhance efforts or reforms through the International Monetary Fund (IMF), World Bank (WB) and donors as well as states of the Gulf Cooperation Council.” As long as Yemen cooperates with the United States, the United States and its allies will financially support the nation – and that may be crucial in times where the water crisis is threatening the survival of the country.

Recently, the Yemeni government has with the help of GTZ (a German development agency) introduced a national mascot, named Rowyan, to persuade people to limit their water usage. Rowyan is an animated raindrop with a moustache and a headdress. As shown in Figure 4, Rowyan has a wife – who is also a raindrop – that is dressed in a veil and black robes, and carrying a handbag. Rowyan and his wife appear on television in short advertisements, promoting the proper use of water – using it sparingly and avoiding

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wasting the water. The cartoon is meant to grab the attention of television viewers and persuade them to change their consumptions lifestyles to help save the country from the water crisis. It is proving to be an effective tool in spreading awareness.

Figure 4: Rowyan and his wife as animated raindrops

Source: http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/middle_east/7595552.stm

The visual impact of the cartoon is designed to appeal in a country with low literacy levels, where advertising and market research are limited (Hill, 2008). The cartoon also attracts children, who are the generation of the future and will influence water use. “Rowyan really seems to have captured the public’s imagination,” Jochen Renger, head of GTZ’s sector in Yemen said. “This indicates people are receptive to the message at some level. But is there a behavioral change? We don’t know yet.”

According to Al- Al-Asbahi (2005), there are a number of solutions to minimize the water crisis, which can be summarized in four points:

• Rainfall water harvesting is technique to prevent as much rainfall from being wasted as possible. The Yemeni government must construct dams to prevent water from flowing away. The government should also construct weirs, which are small overflow-type dams that are used to create millponds to prevent water loss. Water concrete tanks (to store water and canals must also be built. These structures all prevent water from disappearing into the ground. It is much easier and more effective to use surface water than to drill and pump groundwater.

• Improving the irrigation efficiency is another important technique. Irrigation systems are in use in Yemen, but often waste water because they are broken or have leaks. Sometimes up to 60 percent of water in irrigation systems is lost due to leaks. Improving the system, through use of better pipes and sprinkler systems, would drastically reduce that number. The improved systems represent only four percent of the total area irrigated with groundwater. The

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efficiency of the traditional irrigation system is only between 30 and 40 percent, which means a lot of water is lost.

• Extensive investigations for groundwater are necessary to determine how much groundwater is available to cover the drinking water requirements for the Yemeni population. Precise calculations need to be made so that everyone has water.

• Extensive studies for desalination, which is the practice of converting saltwater from the ocean into drinkable water, would be useful to provide water to populations living near the coast. However, a problem with this is, it is expensive to desalinate water, and this would subsequently raise the price of water for the population, which may not be affordable.

VII. Conclusion The water crisis in Yemen has the potential to cause the destruction of the nation. The water crisis was triggered by a sharp population increase, misguided agricultural policies promoting the use of water, the growing of qat, a lack of governmental regulation on using water, and a vulnerable climate to global warming. Due to inadequate water, Yemenis are suffering from lack-of-water-induced food shortages, and dehydration-related health problems. The water crisis has also triggered some local conflicts, which led to a decline in tourism and had therefore also negative implications on Yemen’s economy. Internal conflicts have also made it impossible for the Yemeni government to regulate water use in conflict-affected areas.

For Yemen to survive as a nation, some believe it must cooperate with the United States to receive foreign aid, regulate water use and implement strict regulation policies, prohibit (or at least minimize) the cultivation of qat, import fruits and vegetables that require lots of water, prepare for climate change and use positive images (like the Rowyan cartoon) to encourage the population to participate in water conservation methods.

Al-Asbahi (2005) recommended that Yemen uses rainfall water harvesting methods, improves its irrigation efficiency, investigates groundwater availability and studies the desalination of water to possibly use it as a future source. Today, Yemen is trying to make some changes, though only time will show if these attempts will be sufficient to avert an even more severe crisis.

References Al-Asbahi, Qahtan Yehya A. M. (2005) “Water Resources Information in Yemen”,

paper presented at the United Nations Intersecretariat Working Group on Environment Statistics (IWG-ENV), International Work Session on Water Statistics, Vienna (June 20-22), available at: http://unstats.un.org/unsd/environment/envpdf/pap_wasess3a3yemen.pdf.

Al-Omari, Moneer (2008) “Yemen's Water Crisis Looms”, YemenPost.com (11. August); available at: http://www.yemenpost.net/42/Health/20081.htm.

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Carter, Sarah A. (2009) “Obama offers anti-terrorism aid to Yemen”, Washington Times - Politics, Breaking News, US and World News (9. September); available at: http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2009/sep/09/obama-offers-aid-to-yemen-for-terrorism-fight/.

Hill, Ginny (2008) “Comic answer to Yemen water crisis”, BBC News, News Front Page (4. September); available at: http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/middle_east/7595552.stm.

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) (2008) Climate Change 2007: Synthesis Report -- Summary for Policymakers (Geneva, Switzerland: Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change).

Kasinof, Laura (2009) “Water Crisis at Heart of Yemen's Conflicts”, ABC News (November 9); available at: http://abcnews.go.com/WN/yemen-water-crisis-fuels-conflict/story?id=9013421&page=1; also published as “At heart of Yemen's conflicts: water crisis”, The Christian Science Monitor.com (5. November); available at: http://www.csmonitor.com/2009/1105/p06s13-wome.html.

Kenyon, Peter (2008) “Water, Food Shortages Squeeze Yemen” Washington, DC: NPR : National Public Radio : News & Analysis, World, US, Music & Arts (3. June); available at: http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=90328214.

Lyon, Alistair (2009) “Water crisis threatens Yemen's swelling population”, Reuters.com (August 30); available at: http://www.reuters.com/article/environmentNews/idUSTRE57T0HK20090830.

McGrath, Cam (2009) “Qat Cultivation Draining Water Reserves” IPS, The Story Underneath—Yemen (28. May); available at: http://ipsnews.net/news.asp?idnews=47016.

Sultan, Nabil (2004) “Asia Times - Asia's most trusted news source for the Middle East." Asia Times Online: Asian news hub providing the latest news and analysis (10. July); available at: http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Middle_East/FG10Ak02.html.

United Nations Development Program (UNDP) (2006) Human Development Report 2006 — Beyond Scarcity: Power, Poverty and the Global Water Crisis (Houndmills, Basingstoke and New York: Palgrave MacMillan); available at: http://hdr.undp.org/en/media/HDR06-complete.pdf.

United Press International (UPI) (2009) “Yemen's water crisis a Mideast warning”, UPI Energy Resources; available at: http://www.upi.com/Science_News/Resource-Wars/2009/10/29/Yemens-water-crisis-a-Mideast-warning/UPI-52511256844951/.

Van der Gun, Jac A. M. (2009) “Climate Change and Alluvial Aquifers in Arid Regions: Examples from Yemen”, in: Fulco Ludwig et al. (eds.) Climate Change Adaptation in the Water Sector (London, UK and Sterling, VA: Earthscan).

Ward, Christopher (2001) “British-Yemeni Society: Yemen’s water crisis”, AL-BAB: an open door to the Arab world (July); available at: http://www.al-bab.com/bys/articles/ward01.htm.

Wardam, Batir (2009) “Vulnerability to Climate Change in the Middle East”, Arab Environment Watch - Jeeran Blogs (based on The Palestine Telegraph, processed

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from World Bank resources, 11. November); available at: http://www.arabenvironment.net/archive/2009/11/969153.html.

Weir, Shelagh (1985) Qat in Yemen: Consumption and Social Change (London: British Museum Publications).

World Bank (2006) Middle East & North Africa Region (MENA) – Yemen (Washington, DC: The World Bank, Country Brief, August); available at: http://siteresources.worldbank.org/INTYEMEN/Resources/YEMEN-ENG2006AM.pdf.

Worth, Robert F. (2009) “Thirsty Plant Dries Out Yemen”, The New York Times - Breaking News, World News & Multimedia (1. November); available at: http://www.nytimes.com/2009/11/01/world/middleeast/01yemen.html.

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Global Majority E-Journal, Vol. 1, No. 1 (June 2010), pp. 31-45 Indonesia: A Vulnerable Country in the

Face of Climate Change

Mariah Measey Abstract This article reviews the causes of Indonesia’s high greenhouse gas releases, the impacts climate change has on the country, and the effects of climate change. It shows that deforestation, forest fires and the degradation of peat land have been the main causes for Indonesia being the world’s third largest emitter of greenhouse gases. It summarizes some of the main impacts climate change has in Indonesia, which include, but are not limited to: temperature increase, intense rainfall, sea level rise, and a threat to food security. It examines the effects climate change has on (i) Indonesia’s economy and poor people, (ii) human health, and (iii) Indonesia’s environment and biodiversity.

I. Introduction Climate change in Indonesia is receiving a lot of attention as the country is the world’s third largest emitter of greenhouse gases, which are the root causes of the current global climate change. While Indonesia is opulently endowed with lush natural resources, the environmental degradation is continuing at a fast rate, and unlike in most industrialized countries, Indonesia’s greenhouse gas emissions are mostly the result of forest fires and environmental degradation. As a country extremely vulnerable to climate change, Indonesia must adapt to these various environmental pressures. Indonesia has also become a frontrunner in the international limelight due to the country’s eagerness to reduce greenhouse emissions by roughly 26 percent (World Bank, 2010).

Climate change in Indonesia not only has implications for the country’s environment, it also immensely affects its people and development. Indonesia’s economy has been growing at a fast pace over the last two decades due to good economic policy and political stability (see Ministry of Environment, Republic of Indonesia, 1999). However, climate change makes the task of development for poor countries an even harder challenge. The shocks of climate change are already harshly felt in Indonesia, with additional droughts, heat waves, and floods. Hence, if these effects continue to increase

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in Indonesia, it will pose as an even greater threat to the country’s development challenge.

Climate change in Indonesia has also gotten the world’s attention when the Government of Indonesia hosted the United Nations Climate Change Conference in Bali in December 2007. The Conference gathered some 10,000 participants to discuss solutions to Indonesia’s as well as global climate change concerns. The conference culminated in the adoption of the Bali Road Map, a variety of decisions and programs that will reach toward a safer climate future. 1

The remainder of this article is structured as follows. The next section provides a brief literature review, summarizing the main country-specific publications on this topic, while the third section will present some empirical background. The fourth, fifth, and sixth sections discuss, respectively, the causes of Indonesia’s high greenhouse gas releases, the impacts climate change has on the country, and the effects climate change has on Indonesia’s economy, human health, and the environment. The last section provides some conclusions. II. Brief Literature Review Due to Indonesia’s standing as the world’s third largest emitter of green house gases, there has been an abundance of studies and reports concerning the current status and policies of climate change in Indonesia. The research includes the causes of Indonesia’s high release of green house gases and the effects these emissions have on the nation’s social and economic development.

There are various news articles that cover the effects that climate change has in Indonesia, such as the increase of natural disasters in the country. One of the more recent such reports has been posted by the Integrated Regional Information Networks (IRIN) in October 2009, stating that there has been an increase in the number and severity of disasters occurring in Indonesia. The news article reports specifically of more intense typhoons, droughts, forest fires, and floods that will take place in Indonesia due to climate change. Another article by Williamson (2007), posted at the BBC News website, explains how the poor population in Indonesia is uneducated about climate change. The farmers who tend the rice fields are currently confused about the irregularity of the harvests. Parto, a Java rice field farmer, states that “The harvests have become irregular (...) normally we harvest two to three times a year, but it depends on the weather. We need to wait for the right conditions, but now that's become unpredictable.”2 A local woman said that the people in Indonesia who are tending the rice farms do not talk about climate change.

The World Bank has provided numerous summaries and reports on the status and implications of climate change in Indonesia. These reports explain why Indonesia’s emission of greenhouse gases is so high and the impacts the increasing emissions have in Indonesia. Sari, Maulidya, Butarbutar, Sari and Rusmantoro (2007) provide an overview of the background and key climate change issues facing the country. They also include

1 See http://unfccc.int/meetings/cop_13/items/4049txt.php for further details and reports. 2 Williamson, Lucy (2007).

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some analysis on the effects of climate change on the country’s future development. The World Bank (2009) report details Indonesia’s rising policy and priorities that will help the country mitigate climate change. The 2009 report, entitled “Mainstreaming Climate Change for Sustainability”, summarizes Indonesia’s key climate change concerns, including more intense rainfall and a rise in sea level. The report outlines various aspects of life influenced in Indonesia by climate change, such as food security, water resources, health, farming life, and forest and marine biodiversity. The report also explains the implications that climate change will have on Indonesia’s economic growth as deforestation will decrease the country’s potential for development.

Along with various studies discussing the causes and effects of Indonesia’s high release of greenhouse gases, there is also an abundance of articles concerning the suggested solutions and programs that will help the vulnerable country combat climate change. There is also literature on sector-specific programs that will aid in combating Indonesia’s increase in greenhouse gas emissions. For example, the United States Agency for International Development (USAID, 2008) has proposed various solutions to the climate change issues in the country, such as a sustainable forest and biodiversity management and reducing energy emissions. Most of these suggestions are not new. For example, the report of the Indonesian Ministry of Environment (1999) covered the efforts of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) to aid Indonesia with its main climate change concerns. The report includes a detailed outline of the general programmatic and policy steps that must be taken by the Government of Indonesia to combat the issue of climate change. The report also discussed goals that must be accomplished in each of the following areas: energy, transportation, forestry, agriculture, waste, coastal resources, public health, and international cooperation. III. Empirical Background Indonesia is the world’s largest archipelago, consisting of 17,000 islands and spanning across two biogeographic regions – the Indolalayan and Australasian (World Bank, 2010). Indonesia is home to the world’s richest biological diversity of plant and animal life on the entire planet (USAID, 2008). The country has the highest marine diversity in the world, and the second largest area of rainforest (USAID, 2008). However, along with the rich array of biological assortment in Indonesia, the country’s emission of greenhouse gases is also severely increasing (USAID, 2008).

Figure 1 depicts the increasing population in Indonesia, growing from slightly less than 150 million in 1980 to over 220 million in 2006, while Figure 2 shows Indonesia’s deforestation. In 1990, Indonesia’s forest covered close to 65 percent of the total land area. By 2006, forests covered only 48 percent of the total land area. The charts provide the background for Indonesia’s growing pressures of population demands, which combined with insufficient environmental management, pose problems for both Indonesia’s people and economy. For example, air pollution has cost the Indonesian economy approximately $400 million per year (World Bank, 2010). Due to the fact that the poor of Indonesia are more vulnerable, they are more affected by these costs. Thus, climate change is not only a threat to environmental issues in Indonesia, but it also greatly impacts the country’s development, especially for the poor population present in the country.

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Figure 1: Evolution of Indonesian Population (in millions), 1980-2006


Figure 2: Indonesia’s deforestation (forests as percent of total land area), 1990-2006


The next three figures show Indonesia’s CO2 emissions from 1980-2006, respectively in millions of metric tons, in metric tons per capita, and in kg per 2000 US$ of GDP. Figure 3 shows that Indonesia’s CO2 emissions have increased drastically from 95 million metric tons in 1980 to about 330 million metric tons in 2006. As Figures 4 shows, Indonesia’s CO2 emissions have typically grown faster than Indonesia’s population, though there seems to have been some stabilization in per capita CO2 emissions since 2004. Finally,

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Figure 5 shows that CO2 emissions per unit of GDP (measured in constant US$ of year 2000) have overall remained stable, despite some ups and downs in some specific years.

Figure 3: Indonesia’s CO2 Emissions (millions of metric tons) from 1980-2006

Source: World Bank (2008) World Development Indicators 2008, CD-Rom, updated with

the latest information available on the World Bank data website as of May 2010.

Figure 4: Indonesia’s CO2 Emissions (metric tons per capita) from 1980-2006


the latest information available on the World Bank data website as of May 2010.

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Figure 5: Indonesia’s CO2 Emissions (kg per 2000 US$ of GDP) from 1980-2006


the latest information available on the World Bank data website as of May 2010. IV. Causes for Indonesia’s High Greenhouse Gas (GHG) Emissions According to the World Bank (2010), deforestation, forest fires, and degradation of peat land have placed Indonesia as the world’s third largest emitter of greenhouse gases. The emissions resulting from forest fires and degradation are five times greater than those ensuing from non-forestry emissions. According to Sari, Maulidya, Butarbutar, Sari and Rusmantoro (2007), the yearly emissions from Indonesia in agriculture, waste, and energy total approximately 451 million tons of carbon dioxide.

In 1994, the main sources of CO2 emissions in Indonesia were from the forestry and energy sectors, which contributed for about 98 percent of the total CO2 emissions for that year. The forestry sector’s CO2 emissions resulted primarily from the burning of biomass during grassland and forest conversion activities (Ministry of Environment, Republic of Indonesia (1999). The following table and figure show the sources of emission for Indonesia and other countries for year 2003.

Table 1: GHG Emissions of Selected Countries by Source (in Mt CO2e)

Emission Sources

United States

China Indonesia Brazil Russia India

Energy 5,752 3,720 275 303 1,527 1,051

Agriculture 442 1,171 141 598 118 442

Forestry -403 -47 2,563 1,372 54 -40

Waste 213 174 35 43 46 124

Total 6,005 5,017 3,014 2,316 1,745 1,577

Source: Sari, Maulidya, Butarbutar, Sari and Rusmantoro (2007), Table 1, p. 2.

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Figure 6: GHG Emissions of Selected Countries by Source (in Mt CO2e)

Source: Sari, Maulidya, Butarbutar, Sari and Rusmantoro (2007), Figure 1, p. 2.

As Table 1 and Figure 6 illustrate, Indonesia is the world’s third greatest emitter of greenhouse gases. The table and figure also depict that the main contributor to Indonesia’s high release of greenhouse gases is due to forestry. Forestry accounts for approximately 2,563 million tons (Mt) of CO2-equivlent green house gases (CO2e), the highest in the world coming from forestry. Indonesia contains a multitude of vast forested areas, and approximately 24 billion tons of carbon stock (BtC) are stored in the vegetation and soil, and 80 percent of this is stored in forests (World Bank, 2007). The conversion of land and deforestation, which the World Bank estimates at around 2 million hectares per year, results in the emission of a significant amount of Indonesia’s carbon reservoir (World Bank, 2007). The deforestation emissions from the so-called Land Use, Land-Use Change and Forestry (LULUCF) sector account for about 83 percent of the yearly releases of greenhouse gases in Indonesia, and approximately 34 percent of global LULUCF emissions (World Bank, 2007).

Within the forestry sector, the largest amount of carbon dioxide emissions arise from deforestation and land conversion, which account for 75 percent. Forest-related energy consumption accounts for 23 percent of carbon dioxide emissions, and the remaining 2 percent occurs from forest-related industrial processes. The main cause of the high emission from deforestation and land conversion are forest fires, which account for 57 percent of the total emissions. For example, in 1997 it was estimated that forest fires caused the emission of between 3,000 and 9,000 Mt CO2e into the atmosphere. The likely cause of this vicious cycle of the drying up of peat swamps and rainforest is global warming, thus increasing the risk of more intense forest fires (see Sari, Maulidya, Butarbutar, Sari and Rusmantoro, 2007).

The key issues that contribute to Indonesia’s deforestation include the following: weak political accountability; policies favoring large-scale commercial businesses over small

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and medium size; distorted incentives for timber transport and prices; ineffective legal foundation for protecting the poor land-users; the undervaluation of forest assets; and corruption (World Bank, 2007). These underlying issues impact the landscape of Indonesia, thus contributing to the country’s high greenhouse gas emissions.

Even though the emissions from the energy sector in Indonesia are small, they are growing at a rapid pace. The current emissions from the energy sector accounted for 9 percent of Indonesia’s total emissions. As a result of economic growth and industrialization, the emissions from industry, transport, and power generation are also increasing. It is expected that these emissions will continue to grow and actually triple in the next few years, increasing from 275 Mt CO2e in 2003 to approximately 716 Mt CO2e in 2030. V. Impacts of Climate Change Due to the rise of the greenhouse gas emissions in Indonesia, the impacts of climate change will be heavily felt by the country. The influence of observed climate changes is already an event in Indonesia, and the impacts will continue to worsen due to further human-caused climate change (Case, Ardiansyah and Spector, 2007, p. 5). The impacts of climate change in Indonesia include, but are not limited to: temperature increase, intense rainfall, a rise in sea-level, and a threat to food security. The increase in GHG emissions will also continue to affect the “natural” climate variability, thus leading to more intense weather events (Case, Ardiansyah and Spector, 2007, p. 8).

Figure 7: Projected Change of Mean Temperature in 2020

Source: Sari, Maulidya, Butarbutar, Sari and Rusmantoro (2007), Figure 2, p. 4 (referring

to a study by Susandi, 2007).

As a result of climate change, Indonesia will experience a modest temperature increase. Since 1990, the annual mean temperature in Indonesia has increased around 0.3 degrees Celsius, and has occurred during all of the yearly seasons. In the year 2020, it is expected

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that the mean temperature in Indonesia will have increased by 0.36 to 0.47 degrees Celsius, with the highest temperatures increase projected to occur in the Kalimantan islands and the Moluccas; see Figure 7 above.

Indonesia will also experience more intense rainfall due to the impact of climate change. Climate change is predicted to result in about 2 percent to 3 percent more rainfall in Indonesia each year (see Sari, Maulidya, Butarbutar, Sari and Rusmantoro, 2007). As Figure 8 illustrates, the entire country will experience more rainfall with a considerably large change in the Moluccas. The amplified rainfall is expected to persist and result in a shorter rainy season, with a substantial increase in the risk of floods. For example, the Jakarta flood in February 2007 affected 80 districts and caused traffic chaos paralyzing the affected cities. In the flood more than 70,000 houses had water levels ranging from 5-10 cm, and an estimated 420,000 to 440,000 people were displaced from their homes (Case, Ardiansyah and Spector, 2007, pp. 4-5).

Figure 8: The Average Change of Precipitation Pattern 1900-2000 (for September-November, in mm/100 years)

Source: Sari, Maulidya, Butarbutar, Sari and Rusmantoro (2007), Figure 3, p. 5 (referring

to a study by Ratag, 2007).

Climate change will also increase the average sea level as a result of the increased volume of warmer water and the melting of polar ice caps. The mean sea level in the Jakarta Bay will rise as much as 0.57 centimeters (cm) annually and the land surface will decline as high as 0.8 cm per year. In Indonesia, the combination of rising sea-levels and land subsidence will move the coastline inland, which will cause an increase risk of flooding.3 A study published in 2007 by Indonesia’s Institute for Technology in Bandung (referred to in ADB, 2009), illustrated that with a sea level rise of 0.25, 0.57, and 1.00 cm per year, the total area of north Jakarta that will be affected by inundation in the year

3 ADB (2009).

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2050 would be about 40, 45, and 90 square km (ADB, 2009). If land subsidence continues these sea risings are expected to increase further.

Even a moderate sea-level rise will conclude in significant socio-economic and physical impacts because much of Indonesia’s population, infrastructure, and fertile agricultural lands are located in low-lying coastal areas.4 Approximately 60 percent of Indonesians live in low-lying coastal cities such as Jakarta and Surabaya, and thus these people will strongly be impacted by the sea level rise. The sea-level rise, along with the observed sinking in the Jakarta Bay region, will have massive influences on infrastructure and businesses (Case, Ardiansyah and Spector, 2007, p. 3).

The rise will also reduce coastal livelihoods and farming. The sea-level rise will most likely affect the production of both fish and prawn, with an estimated loss of over 7,000 tons, worth over 0.5 million US dollars, in the Krawang and Subang districts. The Citarum Basin is also expected to experience a loss of 15,000 tons of fish, shrimp, and prawns yield. The overall effect of this sea-level rise will result in the reduction of potential average income. For example, it is predicted that in the Subang region alone, 43,000 farm laborers will lose their jobs. Also, more than 81,000 farmers will have to seek other sources of income due to the flooding of farms from rising sea-levels (Sari, Maulidya, Butarbutar, Sari and Rusmantoro, 2007).

Climate change will also pose a threat to food security in Indonesia. One of the major concerns for Indonesia is the risk of a reduced food security due to climate change. Climate change will affect evaporation, precipitation, and run-off soil moisture and water, hence affecting agriculture and food security. As previously discussed, the sea-level rise will also cause the flooding of more rice and fish farms, thus affecting farmers’ food production. For example, the 1997 El Nino droughts affected approximately 426,000 hectares of rice. A model that simulated the impacts of climate change on crops at the Goddard Institute of Space Studies in the United Kingdom depicted a decrease of crop harvest in East and West Java. Along with these effects, climate change will also lower soil fertility by 2 to 8 percent, which will result in the estimated decrease of rice yields by 4 percent per year and maize by 50 percent per year (Sari, Maulidya, Butarbutar, Sari and Rusmantoro, 2007). VI. Effects of Climate Change on Indonesia Climate change in Indonesia greatly affects many aspects of the country, including Indonesia’s economy, poor population, human health, and the environment. Indonesia has been identified as one of the most vulnerable Asian countries in the face of climate change. Vulnerability studies have illustrated that the economically productive areas of Bali, Java, Sumatra, and Papua are particularly vulnerable to the effects of climate change (World Bank, 2009). The poor communities that live on the coast and those dependent on agriculture will greatly be affected by droughts, sea-level-rises, floods, and landslides (World Bank, 2010). Despite these hazards, the annual benefit of adopting measures to combat climate change is likely to exceed its expected costs by the year 2050 (World Bank, 2010). Thus, adopting methods and policies to mitigate climate change now will

4 Case, Ardiansyah, Spector (2007), p. 5.

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promote the potential development of Indonesia and help to preserve the country’s rich biodiversity. VI.1. Effects on the Economy and the Poor Even though the Indonesian economy has grown rapidly during the last two decades, with GDP growth averaging over 7 percent annually (Ministry of Environment, Republic of Indonesia (1999), if climate change is not adequately addressed it will have severe consequences on economic development and the reduction of poverty (Asian Development Bank (ADB), 2009). The ADB predicted that climate change will cost Indonesia approximately between 2.5 percent and 7 percent of GDP by the end of this century (World Bank, 2009). The greatest impacts of climate change will be experienced by the poorest people in the country, especially those who live in areas vulnerable to flooding, landslides, and drought. Figure 9 below depicts the various climate-related disasters by their type that have occurred in Indonesia from 1950 to 2005.

Figure 9: Number of Climate-Related Hazard Occurrences in Indonesia (1950-2005)

Source: Asian Development Bank (ADB) (2009), Figure 3.4, p. 29 (referring to a study

by Boer and Perdinan, 2008).

As the graph illustrates, Indonesia has experienced an affluent amount of floods, mostly due to climate change. The poor population in Indonesia is going to be the hardest hit by climate disasters. The poor lack the assets and flexibility to handle the impacts that climate change have on productivity and the devastations caused by natural disasters and extreme weather conditions. As it was discussed earlier, climate change will increase the rise in the sea-level, which will increase floods and simultaneously affect those people who are dependent on agriculture and fisheries. Climate change and the induced sea-level rise are going to drastically effect the agricultural sector in Indonesia, and in turn those poor dependent on the sector (ADB, 2009). Climate change brings about the loss of arable lands due to the advancing of sea level, and poor people lack the ability and the means to find other land in order to continue production.

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VI.2. Human Health Human health in Indonesia will be both directly affected by climate change, through deaths from floods and other disasters, and also indirectly affected due to increased infections and diseases. The more frequent prolonged heat waves, extreme weather, floods, and droughts caused by climate change will also lead to increased injury, sickness, and mortality (Case, Ardiansyah and Spector, 2007, p. 9). The direct affects – higher temperatures, sea-level rising, and frequent floods and heat waves – will lead to more injury and deaths.

The indirect effects of climate change include more widespread and extensive vector-borne diseases, such as malaria and dengue. Climate change will also lead to an expansion of water-borne diseases, such as diarrhea, infectious diseases, and poor nutrition due to a disruption in food production. This increase in infections and disease is linked to the threat to food security previously discussed in the section concerning the impacts of climate change on Indonesia. For example, if more and more people become sick, they will not be able to continue working on the rice and fish farms, and thus food production will decrease (see Case, Ardiansyah and Spector, 2007, p. 9).

Many people in Indonesia will also experience enlarged respiratory effects as a result of increased burning and air pollution. Numerous studies have also observed the association between climate-related factors – severe floods, droughts, and warming temperatures – with diarrheal diseases such as malaria, hepatitis, cholera, and dengue fever (Case, Ardiansyah and Spector, 2007). The rise in sea levels, precipitation changes, and increased flooding may also degrade the quality of freshwater and potentially contaminate drinking water. Thus, water-borne disease will become more common in the region.

Once again, the poor in Indonesia are going to be the most impacted by the threat to human health posed by climate change. Many of the region’s poor live in coastal areas, and most of the small farmers and fisherman are too poor to acquire access to sufficient health services. Thus, the poor lack a safety net to protect them against the threats that climate change causes. VI.3. Environment and Biodiversity

Along with affecting the Indonesian economy, poor population, and human health, climate change also threatens the country’s environment and biodiversity. The precipitation changes, land-use change, and temperature increases over the past 20 years have increased the amount and intensity of forest fires and burned areas in Southeast Asia (Case, Ardiansyah and Spector, 2007). For example, the 1997-1998 El Nino prompted the burning of 9.7 million hectare of forests and cost Indonesia approximately US$9 billion. During the El Nino event, over 2 million hectares of peat swamp forests were burned. The burning of peat swamps directly contributes to climate change because these swamps can hold around 30 times more carbon than tropical rainforests. Thus, forest fires and land-use change can release this stored carbon into the atmosphere, thus causing increased warming and added fires (Case, Ardiansyah and Spector, 2007).

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Climate change poses a particular threat to coral reefs, such as those in western Indonesia. The warming of the sea surface temperatures can lead to the extensive destruction of the coral reefs, and thus a loss of biodiversity. Indonesia’s marine turtle populations may also be impacted by sea-level rising, increasing extreme weather conditions, and warming temperatures (Case, Ardiansyah and Spector, 2007). Because Indonesia contains many of the world’s most endangered species, such as the Sumatran and Bornean Orangutan, the country’s biodiversity is especially placed at risk by climate change.

Climate change in Indonesia will also have drastic effects on the orangutans. Orangutans are especially dependent on their forest habitat for survival, as the trees and vines produce their main source of food. Orangutans need a habitat with trees that produce nutrient-rich fruits, and the numbers of trees that yield fruit vary with the season. For example, in the Indonesian peat swamps, there are at least 40 species of trees that produce fruit during wet season and 60 during the dry season.

However, warming temperatures and precipitation changes will affect the phenology of fruit trees, and thus have negative impacts on orangutans. A longer dry season will reduce the amount of fruit and thus limit female reproduction, as they cannot conceive orangutan babies during a time with limited food resources. The fires from the El Nino event alone eliminated 1,000 out of 40,000 total orangutans (i.e., 2.5 percent) in the single year of 1997. It is estimated that severe El Nino events, such as those in 1997-1998, would kill an average of 3.5 percent of orangutans per episode, while less severe episodes would kill around 1 percent (Case, Ardiansyah and Spector, 2007, p. 8). VII. Conclusion Indonesia is the world’s third largest emitter of greenhouse gases. Indonesia is also extremely vulnerable to the effects of climate change. Climate change will impact many aspects of Indonesia, including its economy, poor populace, human health, and the environment. Indonesia faces the challenge of forming effective and appropriate strategies to adapt to the effects of climate change by building resilience and resistance. Action must take place at all levels, from the national and local to the international.

Even though Indonesia signed the Kyoto Protocol in 1998 and ratified the doctrine in 2004, there are still necessary steps that must be taken by the Indonesian government to face the climate change struggle (World Bank, 2007). Indonesia’s forestry policies and legislation are good; however, the endorsement and implementation of these policies must become stronger. Currently, the government’s enforcement of these laws is very weak.

According to a report by the Indonesian Ministry of Environment (1999), the Indonesian government must take steps in each of the following sectors in order to combat the effects and impacts of climate change: energy, agriculture, forestry, and coastal resources.

• In the energy sector, Indonesia must promote the use and development of renewable energy, such as through tax incentives. The Indonesia government must also encourage the public to adopt energy efficiency and conservation through public campaigns and economic incentives. It is also necessary to endorse

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efficient and clean energy use for both commercial and industrial sectors, as various technologies, such as clean production, are available to boost the efficiency of these sectors.

• In order to speed innovation, the Indonesian government must focus on improving the technology and transfer of information to the farmer. It is also important to strengthen the research that is done on the development of more sustainable agricultural practices. The government must also promote innovative and improved agricultural practices that release the least amount of greenhouse gases into the atmosphere.

• One of the main steps that the Indonesian government must take in order to handle the effects of climate change is to prevent forest fires in areas that are prone to such fires. Forestry is the main cause of Indonesia’s high greenhouse gas emission, and thus it must be the country’s primary concern. The government must provide land grants to universities for forestry research and also replenish the forests in rural areas and replant trees in urban areas.

• The coastal areas are greatly affected by climate change due to the rise in sea-level, and thus the Indonesian government must prepare long term adaptation strategies to these effects. It is also important that the government promotes the rehabilitation planning and management of coral reefs. The government should also seek to continue strengthening water resource management to promote water availability in the event that it becomes contaminated by pollutants.

References Asian Development Bank (2009) The Economics of Climate Change in Southeast Asia: A

Regional Review (Manila, The Philippines: Asian Development Bank, April); available at: http://www.adb.org/Documents/Books/Economics-Climate-Change-SEA/PDF/Economics-Climate-Change.pdf.

Case, Michael; Fitrian Ardiansyah; and Emily Spector (2007) Climate Change in Indonesia. Implications for Humans and Nature (Gland, Switzerland: World Wide Fund for Nature (WWF)); available at: http://assets.panda.org/downloads/inodesian_climate_change_impacts_report_14nov07.pdf.

Integrated Regional Information Networks (IRIN) (2009) “Indonesia: Climate Change worsening disasters, says UN”, (Nairobi, Kenya: IRIN, Humanitarian News and Analysis, 16. October); available at: http://www.irinnews.org/Report.aspx?ReportID=86617.

Ministry of Environment, Republic of Indonesia (1999) Indonesia: The First National Communication on Climate Change Convention (Jakarta: Ministry of Environment); available at: http://unfccc.int/resource/docs/natc/indonc1.pdf.

Sari, Agus P.; Martha Maulidya; Ria N. Butarbutar; Rizka E. Sari; and Wisnu Rusmantoro (2007) Executive Summary: Indonesia and Climate Change --

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Working Paper on Current Status and Policies (Washington, DC: The World Bank and London, UK: Department for International Development (DFID), March); available at: http://www.conflictrecovery.org/bin/PEACEClimateChange-ExecSum.pdf.

United States Agency for International Development (USAID) (2008) Global Climate Change: Country and Regional Information (Washington, DC: USAID); available at: http://www.usaid.gov/our_work/environment/climate/country_nar/indonesia.html.

Williamson, Lucy (2007) “Climate Change Lessons in Indonesia” (Jakarta: BBC News, 2. May); available at: http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/asia-pacific/6610973.stm.

World Bank (2008) World Development Indicators 2008, CD-Rom (Washington, DC: The World Bank).

World Bank (2009) Indonesia Rising: Mainstreaming Climate Change for Sustainability (Jakarta, Indonesia: World Bank Office Jakarta); available at: http://go.worldbank.org/JIGX6UTVJ0.

World Bank (2010) Indonesia: Climate Change (Washington, DC: The World Bank, online resource); available at: http://go.worldbank.org/HQQFW5MV70.

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Global Majority E-Journal, Vol. 1, No. 1 (June 2010), pp. 46-56 Poverty in Nigeria: Some Dimensions and

Contributing Factors

Chimobi Ucha

Abstract Unemployment, corruption, non-diversification of the economy, income inequality, laziness, and a poor education system can be considered to be some of the key factors contributing to poverty in Nigeria. This article analyzes these factors after reviewing some of the most recent contributions to the literature and summarizing some of the key dimensions of poverty in Nigeria. It also shows that there are various linkages between the six key factors as well as enforcing feedbacks from the various dimensions of poverty in Nigeria.

I. Introduction Poverty is a multidimensional phenomenon. The World Development Report 2000/2001 (see World Bank, 2001) summarizes the various dimensions as a lack of opportunity, lack of empowerment and a lack of security. The window of opportunity remains closed to the poor masses, and this makes them practically inactive in the society. Their lack of empowerment limits their choices in almost everything and their lack of security makes them vulnerable to diseases, violence and so on. Similarly, a United Nations statement says:

Poverty is a denial of choices and opportunities, a violation of human dignity. It means lack of basic capacity to participate effectively in society. It means not having enough to feed and clothe a family, not having a school or clinic to go to; not having the land on which to grow one’s food or a job to earn one’s living, not having access to credit. It means insecurity, powerlessness and exclusion of individuals, households and communities. It means susceptibility to violence, and it often implies living on marginal or fragile environments, without access to clean water or sanitation.1

1 United Nations Statement of June 1998, which was signed by the heads of all UN agencies; see: http://wwww.helium.com/items/1587576-poor-service-delivery.

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In Nigeria, widespread and severe poverty is a reality. It is a reality that depicts a lack of food, clothes, education and other basic amenities. Severely poor people lack the most basic necessities of life to a degree that it can be wondered how they manage to survive. There are several effects and deficiencies associated with poverty in Nigeria. One of the main effects of poverty is poor health, as is reflected in Nigeria’s high infant mortality and low life expectancy. Poor people in Nigeria face several health issues as they lack basic health amenities and competent medical practitioners. Most children do not have the opportunity of being immunized and this leads to certain physical defects in some of the children. Their health has become low priority and as they have little or no choices, they live with whatever they are provided with, whether healthy or not.

This article focuses on some of the key factors that contribute to poverty in Nigeria: (1) unemployment, especially among young graduates; (2) corruption, especially among political office holders; (3) non-diversification of the economy; (4) income inequality; (5) laziness, especially among those who come from wealthy households; and (6) a poor education system. Some of these could also be considered to be causes of poverty. While the distinction between causes and effects of poverty is fuzzy, our discussion below will show that these factors seem more likely to be causes than effects of poverty in Nigeria. Some of the more obvious effects or dimensions of poverty in Nigeria are provided in the section on empirical background. II. Literature Review: There is a relatively large literature addressing poverty in Nigeria. The following three publications are some of the most recent contributions.

• According to Garcia, Kohl, Ruengsorn and Zislin (2006), Nigeria’s main challenges include, reducing poverty, diversifying its economy from the oil and gas sector towards more labor intensive sectors, and improving health and education. The oil has increased economic volatility and inflation while those living in poverty being most vulnerable to volatility and inflation. To add to it, instability of government revenues and a crowding out of agriculture (which provides the source of income to the poor) have made the situation worsen. The oil industry does not employ a sizeable number of unskilled workers, thereby contributes little to reducing poverty.2

• Ford (2007) discusses the oil crisis in the oil producing region of Nigeria. He states that poverty has been linked to high crime rates, especially in the Niger Delta region where there is a sharp contrast between the rich and the poor. The masses cause social unrest because the wealth gotten from their territory does not get to them. In the Nigerian society, the best way to acquire wealth is to enter the political sphere. Most of the time political success is tied to criminal activities. He ends the article by stating that the link between economic and political power must me broken for progress to be made.

• Nnadi (2008) discusses the various impacts of globalization on the Nigerian economy. These impacts have resulted to social and economic problems in the

2 Garcia, Kohl, Ruengsorn and Zislin (2006), p. 15.

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country such as inequality, the emergence of a social underclass and low development. He also states that globalization has affected Nigeria’s economic growth through a decline of foreign direct investment and that for unemployment, poverty and inequality to be alleviated Nigeria’s economic policies need to be changed.

III. Empirical Background: Some Dimensions of Poverty in Nigeria Nigeria is a West African country with about 152 million people (as of 2008). It is by far the most populous country in the whole of Africa. Although Nigeria’s GDP per capita has been increasing through the course of time in nominal US dollar terms (see Figure 1), many Nigerians are still living in poverty. Obviously, the average income per capita does not give the real picture due to Nigeria’s high income inequality, which will be discussed in more details in the next section. According to the World Resources Institute’s environmental resource portal Earth Trends, about 71 percent of Nigerians live on less than $1 a day and about 92 percent live on less than $2 a day.3

Figure 1: GDP per capita in current international dollars, 1980-2006


Though data on poverty is many times controversial, this seems to be confirmed by the data provided by the United States Central Intelligence Agency’s World Factbook (henceforth CIA Factbook),4 which stated that 70 percent of the Nigerian population lived below the poverty line in 2007. On the other hand, based on the World Bank’s 3 See http://earthtrends.wri.org/povlinks/country/nigeria.php. 4 https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/geos/ni.html

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World Development Indicators 2008 CD-Rom, Nigeria’s prevalence of undernourished is with about 10 percent of the population over the last decade inconsistent with 70 percent of the people living below the poverty line, especially as the prevalence of undernourished in Sub-Saharan Africa is given to be at around 30 percent over the last decade.

Anyway, it is clear that given the rich natural resources, the level of poverty in Nigeria is remarkably high. While data on Nigeria’s poverty over time remains scattered, there is some evidence that Nigeria’s poverty has actually increased over time.5 Nigeria also ranks third in the world for the most people living with HIV/AIDS and has the third highest death rate as a result of HIV/AIDS (CIA Factbook).

Nigeria’s infant mortality rate has been estimated to be currently 99 per 1000 births, which implies that Nigeria has the thirteenth highest infant mortality rate in the world (CIA Factbook). The infant mortality of children under the age of 5 was 189 per 1000 births in 2007. These high mortality rates are mostly due to mothers not having enough money to take care of their children. Many mothers are also ignorant of some preventive measures such as immunizations and vaccines. The immunization rate against diphtheria, pertussis and tetanus (DPT) for children between 12-23 months was about 54 percent in 2007. Many children in Nigeria die as a result of malaria, diarrhea, tetanus and similar diseases. Most of these are preventable and curable diseases, but due to inadequate health care facilities and lack of money far too many children die off from them. Like the grown-up population, many children also lack access to safe water and sanitation, which typically leads to several diseases.

When compared to Sub-Saharan Africa, Nigeria seems to be better off in a few economic and social aspects but worse off in most. This is illustrated with some selected economic and social data in Table 1. First of all, the average Nigerian is slightly poorer in terms of GDP per capita than the average person in Sub-Saharan Africa. Second, the life expectancy of an average Nigerian at birth has been estimated to be as low as 47 years, which is again slightly topped by that of Sub-Saharan Africa (51 years). In terms of gross primary enrollment in 2006, Nigeria was with 96.2 percent slightly better off than Sub-Saharan Africa (93.2 percent), though Nigeria’s gross primary enrollment for girls was slightly below that of Sub-Saharan Africa. Nigeria’s immunization rates for both DPT and measles are relatively low compared to Sub-Saharan Africa which rates as high as 72 percent in DPT and 71 percent in measles, while Nigeria’s immunization rates are still at 54 percent and 62 percent, respectively for DPT and measles.

5 For example, according to the Encyclopedia of Nations [http://www.nationsencyclopedia.com/], Nigeria’s GDP per capita declined from $1,200 in 1981 to about $300 in 2000. It also states that while the standard of living has declined for many Nigerians, it has improved substantially for a few, mostly the already better off. It has also been stated that the number of people below the poverty line has been on the rise in Sub-Saharan Africa, with 45 percent of the population living below the international poverty line of $1 a day. The region is said to have the highest level of intra-regional poverty as half of its population is classified as poor (see the Organization of the Islamic Conference (OIC), Statistical, Economic and Social Research and Training Centre for Islamic Countries (SESRTCIC) (2007), p. 8).

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Table 1: Selected Poverty and Social Data for Nigeria and Sub-Saharan Africa

Source: World Bank (2008), Nigeria at a glance, available at:

http://devdata.worldbank.org/AAG/nga_aag.pdf

As Figure 2 shows, Nigeria’s infant mortality rate stood at 140 per 1000 births in 1970. Although there was some progress during the 1970s, an increase was noticed by 1985. During the subsequent ten years, Nigeria made zero progress in reducing infant mortality. Following some progress in the late 1990s and early 2000s, Nigeria’s infant mortality rate is today about the same as it was since 2005. Figure 2 also shows that Sub-Saharan Africa has been making more progress on the issue of infant mortality than Nigeria.

Figure 2: Infant Mortality (per 1000 live births) in Nigeria and SSA, 1970-2006


Nigeria Sub-Saharan Africa

Basic Data (2007)Population, mid-year (millions) 148 800GNI per capita (Atlas method, US $) 920 952GNI (Atlas method, US $) 136.3 762

Average Annual Growth (2001-2007)Population (%) 2.4 2.5Labor Force (%) 2.5 2.6

Most Recent Estimate (2001-2007)Life expectancy at birth (years) 47 51Infant mortality (per 1000 live births) 99 94Child Malnutrition (% of children under 5) 27 27Access to an improved water source (% of population) 47 58Literacy (% of population age 15+) 69 59Gross primary enrollment (% of school-age population) 96 94

Male 105 99Female 87 88

020406080

100120140160

1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2006Nigeria SSA

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IV. Some Key Factors Contributing to Poverty in Nigeria IV.1. Unemployment Unemployment is a major factor contributing to poverty in Nigeria. There is a strong correlation between unemployment and poverty. When people are unemployed, their source of livelihood depletes over time. The cost of living becomes high and the standard of living goes down. There are many people in Nigeria who lack the opportunity of being employed. The formal unemployment rate in Nigeria as estimated by the World Bank in 2007 was 4.9 percent and Nigeria ranked 61st across the worlds countries (CIA Factbook).

As reported by Teshome (2008), the then newly released African Development Indicators report of the World Bank showed that “education, once seen as the surest, undisputed gateway to employment, no longer looks so certain.” This is very true in the case of Nigeria. The fact that you are an educated Nigerian is no guarantee that you will be employed. Furthermore, according to the World Bank report, unemployment in Africa is higher among those who have attained a higher education of some kind, and also those in wealthy households because they depend solely on the wealth of their families and do not consider employment a priority.

Many graduates in Nigeria wander the streets without anything reasonable to do for a living. The government is capable but unwilling to provide jobs for them. Employment in Nigeria is usually not based on merit but depends on how connected you are with people that have power. This leaves many highly qualified people in poverty as seemingly no one cares to know what they are capable of achieving. These people are missing out on the income they would have gotten if they were employed. The number of quality jobs in the economy is low and many government resources are misallocated.

Unemployment-induced poverty tends to increase the crime rate and violence in the country. Most unemployed youths resort to crimes such as armed robbery, kidnapping for ransom, internet fraud and other forms of fraudulent activities. The reservation wage they get from these activities is typically barely enough to take care of their basic necessities. IV.2 Corruption Transparency International defines corruption as “the abuse of entrusted power for private gain.”6 This has become a common act in Nigeria and it has destabilized the political system drastically. Government funds are being misappropriated on a daily basis by the leaders, who only put the interest of their family and friends at heart while ignoring the masses. The corruption has eaten so deeply into the government and economy that everyone seems to be blinded by it. Corruption has almost become an accepted way of life in Nigeria.

In Nigeria, the government’s income is generated mostly from natural resource revenues. This income, instead of being used for developmental purposes, is then circulated among the political office holders and their families, leaving the rest of the people to wallow in poverty. Political leaders practically ignore the affairs and wellbeing of their people who

6 See http://www.transparency.org/news_room/faq/corruption_faq.

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elected them into office. They mismanage and embezzle funds. There are several issues involved with bad governance in Nigeria, use of wrong policies, adaptation to wrong policies and implementation of those wrong policies. In any case, it is clear that Nigeria’s corruption has increased poverty and inequality as well as contributed to high crime rates. IV.3. Non-Diversification of the Economy – Oil Over-Dependency While Nigeria’s poverty has been identified to be caused by many factors, Nigeria’s non-diversification of the economy can be seen as a major factor. Before 1970, the Nigerian economy was driven by the agricultural sector. The oil sector which only constituted 1 percent of the country’s export revenue in 1958 rose to 97 percent by 1984 and has since then not gone below 90 percent. In 2008, the oil and gas sector constituted about 97.5 percent of their export revenues, 81 percent of government revenues and about 17 percent of GDP.7

In Nigeria, those in power have practically ignored other sources of income, and today, Nigeria depends heavily on exporting oil. This dependency on natural resources is often referred to as “Dutch disease”, whereby natural resources make a country less competitive. Excluding the few working in the oil sector, the majority of the people have been impoverished as their products have become irrelevant. The agricultural sector, which was their major means of income before the discovery of oil, is considered almost useless.

Beyond the Dutch disease, Nigeria’s abundance of a natural resource has led to what is known as a resource course, which is reflected in the “Niger Delta Crisis (reflecting the region of the country where most of the oil is coming from). The people in this region are fighting for resource control as they claim the government is not fulfilling their promise of giving them the large part of the oil revenues. The wealth from natural resources in Nigeria is supposed to be working with the derivation policy, but this policy is not functional in any way, as the oil-producing states are still impoverished and this policy is supposed to work in a way such that these states with these natural resources should be able to get a large part of the countries revenue as they contribute a lot to the national wealth.

According to Collier (2007), resource wealth sometimes contributes to a conflict trap and the surplus from natural resource exports reduces growth. He goes on to discuss the case of Nigeria in the 1970s, when other exports of the country like agriculture became non-profitable due to increase oil revenues. He explains how the Dutch disease can damage the growth process by closing out on the exports in other promising sectors of the economy. The first half of the 1980s gave rise to a huge oil boom in Nigeria and also led to excessive government borrowing and investment on wasteful projects that made the corruption in the country more apparent. As the world price of oil crashed in 1986, Nigeria’s oil revenues reduced drastically and Nigeria’s external debt increased drastically. The introduction of the structural adjustment program (SAP) was one of the

7 The relatively low contribution of the oil and gas sectors to GDP has been due to the ongoing security crisis in the Niger delta region. According to Nigeria’s National Bureau of Statistics (http://www.nigerianstat.gov.ng/index.php/pages/sectorStatistics), the share of the oil and gas sector in GDP has typically been between 25 to 30 percent in most of the recent years.

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government reforms advocated by the international financial institutions to reduce Nigeria’s oil dependency. Despite increased national output in non-oil sectors, poverty and social indicators worsened as most of the revenues generated were used for servicing Nigeria’s external debt. Nigerians have blamed the soaring poverty level despite the increase in output to the introduction of the reforms and policies introduced during the late 1980s. Nigerians hence came to the conclusion that there was a conspiracy by world financial institutions to take their country down. IV.4. Inequality Inequality implies a concentration of a distribution, whether one is considering income, consumption or some other welfare indicators or attributes (see Oyekale, Oyekale and Adeoti, 2007). There was an increase in income disparity after the economic growth which Nigeria experienced between1965-1975, and this income inequality has increased the dimension of poverty in the country (Oluwatayo, 2008, p. 1). The income inequality between the people in rural and urban areas in Nigeria is remarkably high, as those who live in the rural areas base all their income on agriculture which is today not a thriving sector in Nigeria as oil has taken over the economy. They do not invest their money to acquire skills as people in the urban areas would and this makes them more vulnerable to poverty and leads to some social and economic problems such as violence, corruption and so on (Oluwatayo, 2008, p. 2).

Table 2 shows that there is a very high disparity between the income of the richest 10 and 20 percent and the poorest 10 and 20 percent. In 2003, the income of the poorest 10 percent of Nigeria’s population was only 1.9 percent, while that of the richest 10 percent was 33.2 percent. Table 2 also shows that the income share of the richest 10 percent has decreased slightly compared to 1996 (37.1 percent), though the 2003 share remains higher than what it was in 1993 (32.5 percent). A more equal distribution of Nigeria’s income would go a long way in reducing the rate of poverty, but because it is typically the rich people who hold political offices or are related to those holding political office, income remains concentrated among the rich.

Table 2: Nigeria’s Income Inequality, 1993-2003

1993 1996 2003

Income Shared by Lowest 10% 1.4 1.9 1.9

Income Shared by Lowest 20% 4.0 5.0 5.0

Income Shared by Highest 10% 31.5 37.1 33.2

Income Shared by Highest 20% 49.4 52.1 49.2


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IV.5. Laziness Laziness is a common disease which is virtually suffered by many Nigerians today, especially those from wealthy households. Everyone wants to be comfortable but they are not ready to work towards it. This often leads to greed where people will do whatever they can to keep the family wealth for themselves. In most families, everyone depends on the bread winner, who works so much to keep the family going and when he dies the family is likely to become poor because of mismanagement of funds. In most Nigerian families, the death of the bread winner means the death of the whole family fortunes; because everyone was depending on him/her to provide everything. IV.6. Poor Education System Education can play a major role in reducing poverty. According to the World Bank, education is central to development. It promotes economic growth, national productivity and innovation, and values of democracy and social cohesion. In Nigeria, the population with no education account for most of the poor. The education system in Nigeria can be regarded as a failure compared to other countries in the world. The United Nations Universal Declaration of Human Rights8 states that “everyone has the right to an education.” This right to education has been denied to many Nigerians, of which many of them can be considered invisible to the society now. This deprivation of education applies more to females than males, because they are considered the inferior sex. Hence educating them is seen as unnecessary as they are expected to marry as early as possible. V. Conclusion Poverty is multi-dimensional and even though it is difficult to separate the various dimensions of poverty from the various causes of poverty, in the case of Nigeria, we have shown that unemployment, corruption, the non-diversification of Nigeria’s economy, inequality, laziness, and a poor education system are some of the key determinants of poverty. These determinants are many times related to each other and also enforce each other. For example, unemployment, poor education and poverty can be seen as vicious cycle. Today, people who are not educated lack the opportunity of being hired for good jobs, and the poor masses today still cannot afford to go to school which makes them the poor unemployed masses tomorrow. Hence, all these factors are correlated and must all be tackled together if any progress wants to be made.

Being educated does not necessarily mean you will be employed. Many people graduate from school and stay for years without a job. This is partly due to a lack of employment opportunities as well as corruption. Many offices hire solely by preference, not by merit. Preferential treatments have become the order of the day, and this increases the number of unemployed graduates. Nigeria needs to do more for the employment of young graduates, which will also help in reducing crime rates, as many youths resort to crime for survival.

A factor that is very critical for Nigeria is the need for economic diversification. As the Niger Delta crisis suggests, if there is a problem in the oil sector, the whole country is

8 See http://www.un.org/en/documents/udhr/index.shtml.

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facing economic and social problems as oil contributes about 97 percent of Nigeria’s export revenues. More investments need to be made in the agricultural sector and other promising sectors of the economy.

Finally, there are various aspects of poverty that have not been discussed in this article. For example, the area of health care also needs more attention, especially with regards to reducing Nigeria’s high rate of infant mortality. Many children are dying from several preventable diseases, such as cholera, malaria and so on. By providing clean water and adequate health care services, the government can save the lives of these infants.

References Collier, Paul (2007) The Bottom Billion: Why the Poorest Countries are Failing and

What Can Be Done About It (Oxford and New York: Oxford University Press).

Ford, Neil (2007) “Nigeria: Pouring Oil on Delta’s Troubled Waters?” African Business, Wednesday, August 1, 2007; available at: http://www.allbusiness.com/government/elections-politics-politics/8909190-1.html

Garcia, Rose Mary; Richard Kohl; Ann Ruengsorn; and Julia Zislin (2006) Nigeria: Economic Performance Assessment (Washington, DC: United States Agency for International Development (USAID), February); available at: http://pdf.usaid.gov/pdf_docs/PNADF350.pdf.

Nnadi, Stanley E. (2008) “The Impact of Globalization on the Nigerian Economy”, Minneapolis, Minnesota: Walden University, Dissertation; available at: http://gradworks.umi.com/33/36/3336742.html.

Oluwatayo, I. B. (2008) “Explaining Inequality and Welfare Status of Households in Rural Nigeria: Evidence from Ekiti State”, Humanity & Social Science Journal, Vol. 3, No. 1, pp. 70-80; available at: http://www.idosi.org/hssj/hssj3(1)08/9.pdf

Oyekale, A. S.; T. O. Oyekale; and A. I. Adeoti (2007) “Regression-Based Approach to Income Inequality Decomposition in Rural and Urban Nigeria”, International Journal of Economic Perspectives, Vol. 1, No. 2, pp. 45-54.

Organization of the Islamic Conference (OIC), Statistical, Economic and Social Research and Training Centre for Islamic Countries (SESRTCIC) (2007) Poverty in Sub-Saharan Africa: The Situation in the OIC Member Countries (Ankara, Turkey: OIC, Statistical, Economic and Social Research and Training Centre for Islamic Countries (SESRTCIC), A Preliminary Report (February)); available at: http://www.sesric.org/files/article/233.pdf.

Teshome, Mekonnen (2008) “Multi-sectoral Approach to Cope with African Youth Unemployment”, waltaINFO of Tuesday, December 9, 2008; available at: http://www.waltainfo.com/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=5407&Itemid=82.

World Bank (2001) World Development Report 2000/2001—Attacking Poverty (New York: Oxford University Press).

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World Bank (2008) “Nigeria at a Glance”, Washington, DC: The World Bank; available at: http://devdata.worldbank.org/AAG/nga_aag.pdf.

World Bank (2008) World Development Indicators 2008, CD-Rom (Washington, DC: The World Bank).