global market opportunities for u.s. moldmakers -- bric countries
TRANSCRIPT
Global Market Opportunities for U.S. Moldmakers
Brazil, Russia, India and China (BRIC)
August 26, 2014
Presented By:Michael D. Taylor, Senior Director, International Affairs and Trade
Upcoming Global Market Opportunities for U.S. Moldmakers Webinars
November 18 Europe
• Macroeconomic Overview• Ease of Doing Business• Trade Flows & Market Opportunities• Trade Missions• Q&A
Agenda
Michael Taylor Michael Taylor is Senior Director for International Affairs and Trade at SPI: The Plastics Industry Trade Association. Mr. Taylor serves as SPI’s primary staff expert on international trade policy, programs, and activities. He advises SPI staff and membership on the impact of international trade law and regulatory actions, and advocates SPI positions before government officials and other policy makers. Mr. Taylor organizes and leads trade missions, provides trade facilitation services, and assists member companies in market entry planning and execution. Prior to his current responsibilities, Mr. Taylor was Director, Europe and Multilateral Programs of the Global Intellectual Property Center (GIPC) at the U.S. Chamber of Commerce. Mr. Taylor is a part-time lecturer in political science at Trinity Washington University in Washington, DC. He has taught undergraduate and graduate courses in American politics, comparative politics, international relations, political economy, and research methods for more than twenty years. He received his B.A. in International Affairs from the Elliott School of International Affairs at the George Washington University, and his M.A. in World Politics from the Catholic University of America.
BRICS Bank Announced
• Headquartered in Shanghai, the new BRICS Bank actually takes the form of a pair of new institutions.
• The New Development Bank, with $50bn in initial capital, will finance infrastructure and sustainable development projects (much like the World Bank), and the Contingent Reserve Arrangement, with $100bn in initial capital, will provide assistance to members in financial difficulty (much like the IMF).
Macroeconomic Overview
Growth of Plastics – Industry Exports
NAFTA BRIC Free Trade Agreement Countries
Asia EU28 South America TOTAL-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
10.6% 10.0%10.9% 11.2%
6.5%
11.5%10.4%
6.2%
-7.4%
3.8%
-8.3%
-4.0%
2.2%1.3%
4.9%2.6% 3.5%
-4.4%
3.4%
-2.9%
2.7%
2011 2012 2013
Percentage Growth of Plastics Industry Exports2011-2013
Changes in U.S. Plastics Industry Exports
Mexico Canada China Belgium Brazil Japan South Korea
Germany United Kingdom
Singapore-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
10.4% 10.9%8.2%
2.7%
13.0%
4.7%
11.4% 10.6% 10.4%
36.1%
9.4%
2.9%
-8.8%
-2.9% -4.6%-2.5% -2.5%
-9.8%
0.8%
-20.8%
9.1%
0.4% 0.5%
10.9% 11.4%
-12.9%
14.4%
2.0% 2.0%
-20.2%
2011 2012 2013
Changes in U.S. Plastics Industry Exports for the Top 10 Exports Markets2011-2013
Top Ten U.S. Plastics Industry Export Markets
Canada Mexico China United Kingdom
Japan Germany Netherlands Belgium Brazil Singapore World-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
4.8% 5.3%
10.5% 11.5%7.4% 7.2%
49.4%
-1.0%
0.7%
-0.3%
5.6%
0.4%5.3% 5.3%
15.6%
-5.4%
7.4%
18.8%
-1.2%
2.2%
-7.8%
1.5%
Plastic Products Manufacturing All Manufacturing
Percentage Changes in Exports for the Top Ten U.S. Plastics Industry Export Markets Second Quarter 2014 Versus Second Quarter 2013
Why the BRIC are Important
• The BRIC are both the fastest growing and largest emerging markets economies. They account for almost three billion people, or just under half of the total population of the world. In recent times, the BRIC have also contributed to the majority of world GDP growth.
• Projections say it is only a matter of time before China becomes the biggest economy in the world - sometime between 2030 and 2050 seems the consensus. In fact, Goldman Sachs believe that by 2050 these will be the most important economies, relegating the U.S. to fifth place.
• By 2020, all of the BRIC should be in the top 10 largest economies of the world. The undisputed heavyweight, though, will be China, also the largest creditor in the world.
GDP Growth Rate 2000-2012 (Annual %)
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
Brazil ChinaIndia Russian Federation
Ra
te o
f G
row
th
Exports of Goods and Services 2000-2012
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
Brazil ChinaIndia Russian Federation
Pe
rce
nt
of
GD
P
Inflation, Consumer Prices2000-2012
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
Brazil ChinaIndia Russian Federation
An
nu
al P
erc
en
tag
e
Total Unemployment2000-2012
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
Brazil ChinaIndia Russian Federation
% o
f T
ota
l La
bo
r F
orc
e
HSBC China Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index
Ease of Doing Business Index
Ease of Doing Business
Economy
Ease of Doing
Business Rank
Starting a Business
Dealing with Construction
Permits
Getting Electricity
Registering Property
Getting Credit
Protecting Investors
Paying Taxes
Trading Across Borders
Enforcing Contracts
Resolving Insolvency
Russia
92 26 59 37 2 41 41 12 48 4 18
China 96 52 62 38 14 26 34 33 25 7 26
Brazil 116 42 41 6 37 41 30 50 35 40 50
India 134 61 61 34 31 11 13 49 40 61 43
Trade Flows & Market Opportunities
In 2013: – U.S. plastics industry exported goods valued at $2.3
billion, up 11.4 percent from 2012
• Resins: $1.7 billion (+13.4 percent)
• Products: $461 million (+5.6 percent)
• Machinery: $64 million (+7.9 percent)
• Molds: $7 million (-20.4 percent)
– Plastics imports were down 0.9 percent to $232.2 million
– Positive trade balance of $2.0 billion
U.S.-Brazil Trade Statistics 2013
In 2013: – U.S. plastics industry exported goods valued at $395.9
million, down 2.9 percent from 2012
• Resins: $303 million (-9.1 percent)
• Products: $73 million (+18.3 percent)
• Machinery: $20 million (+55.4 percent)
• Molds: $377 thousand (+272.1 percent)
– Plastics imports were up 20.2 percent to $24.8 million
– Positive trade balance of $371.1 million
U.S.-Russia Trade Statistics 2013
In 2013: – U.S. plastics industry exported goods valued at
$702.3 million, down 4.6 percent from 2012
• Resins: $504 million (-4.1 percent)
• Products: $170 million (-3.3 percent)
• Machinery: $27 million (-19.1 percent)
• Molds: $1 million (-0.3 percent)
– Plastics imports were up 0.5 percent to $435.5 million
– Positive trade balance of $266.8 million
U.S.-India Trade Statistics 2013
U.S.-China Trade Statistics 2013
In 2013: – U.S. plastics industry exported goods valued at $4.8
billion, up 0.5 percent from 2012
• Resins: $3.5 billion (+0.6 percent)
• Products: $1.2 billion (+2.3 percent)
• Machinery: $137 million (-15.7 percent)
• Molds: $15 million (+27.8 percent)
– Plastics imports were up 6.6 percent to $12.2 billion
– Negative trade balance or deficit of $5.6 billion
U.S. Plastics Industry Exports to the BRIC Countries 2000-2013
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
0
1,000,000,000
2,000,000,000
3,000,000,000
4,000,000,000
5,000,000,000
6,000,000,000
China Brazil India Russia
U.S
. $ M
illio
ns
U.S. Molds Exports to the BRIC Countries 2000-2013
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
130
5,000,000
10,000,000
15,000,000
20,000,000
25,000,000
China Brazil India Russia
U.S
. $
Th
ou
san
ds
The Distribution of Molds Exports to BRIC Countries
2013
57.3%14.5%
14.2% 0.1%0.1%
INJECTION TYPE MOLDS FOR RUBBER OR PLASTICS, NESOI
MOLDS FOR RUBBER OR PLASTICS, OTHER THAN INJECTION OR COM-PRESSION TYPES
COMPRESSION TYPE MOLDS FOR RUBBER OR PLASTICS, NESOI
INJECTION OR COMPRESSION TYPE MOLDS, FOR THE MANUFACTURE OF SEMICONDUCTOR DEVICES
INJECTION OR COMPRESSION TYPE MOLDS FOR RUBBER OR PLASTICS,FOR SHOE MACHINERY
U.S. Molds Exports to Brazil by Type 2000-2013
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
130
1,000,000
2,000,000
3,000,000
4,000,000
5,000,000
6,000,000
7,000,000
8,000,000
INJECTION TYPE MOLDS FOR RUBBER OR PLASTICS, NESOI COMPRESSION TYPE MOLDS FOR RUBBER OR PLASTICS, NESOI MOLDS FOR RUBBER OR PLASTICS, OTHER THAN INJECTION OR COMPRESSION TYPES INJECTION OR COMPRESSION TYPE MOLDS FOR SHOE MACHINERY INJECTION OR COMPRESSION TYPE MOLDS, FOR THE MANUFACTURE OF SEMICONDUCTOR DEVICES
U.S
. $
Mill
ion
s
U.S. Molds Exports to China by Type 2000-2013
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
130
2,000,000
4,000,000
6,000,000
8,000,000
10,000,000
12,000,000
14,000,000
16,000,000
INJECTION TYPE MOLDS FOR RUBBER OR PLASTICS, NESOI INJECTION OR COMPRESSION TYPE MOLDS, FOR THE MANUFACTURE OF SEMICONDUCTOR DEVICES MOLDS FOR RUBBER OR PLASTICS, OTHER THAN INJECTION OR COMPRESSION TYPES COMPRESSION TYPE MOLDS FOR RUBBER OR PLASTICS, NESOI INJECTION OR COMPRESSION TYPE MOLDS FOR SHOE MACHINERY
U.S
. $
Mill
ion
s
U.S. Machine Tools Exports to the BRIC Countries 2000-2013
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
130
5,000,000
10,000,000
15,000,000
20,000,000
25,000,000
30,000,000
35,000,000
China Russia Brazil India
U.S
. $
Mill
ion
s
BRIC Summary• Only China and Russia showed growth overall from 2012 to 2013.
• In China, the most growth was in Injection-Type Molds NESOI, Injection/Compression Type for Semiconductor Devices, and Injection/Compression Type Molds for Shoe Machinery.
• In Russia, the most growth was in Non-Injection/Non-Compression Type Molds.
• For China, the most consistent performer from 2000 to 2013 was Injection Type Molds NESOI.
SPI 2013 Upcoming Trade Missions
Istanbul, Turkey December 4-7, 2014 in conjunction with Plast Eurasia 2014 and
PAGDER
Upcoming Global Market Opportunities for U.S. Moldmakers Webinars
November 18 Europe
Thank You!
谢谢 Merci Vielen Dank
Grazie ありがとうございました 감사합니다 Obrigado Спасибо Gracias Teşekkürler
Questions & Answers
Michael [email protected]