global mitigation of non-co2 greenhouse gases: … results presented in this report can be...
TRANSCRIPT
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United States Environmental Protection AgencyOffice of Atmospheric Programs (6207J) EPA-430-R-13-011 Washington, DC 20005 September 2013
Global Mitigation of Non-CO2 Greenhouse Gases: 2010-2030
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How to obtain copies You can electronically download this document from the U.S. EPAs Web site at .
For further information The results presented in this report can be downloaded in spreadsheet format from the U.S. EPAs Web site at . For additional information, contact Shaun Ragnauth, (202) 343-9142, [email protected], U.S. Environmental Protection Agency.
Peer-reviewed document This report has undergone an external peer review consistent with the guidelines of the U.S. EPA Peer Review Policy. Comments were received from experts in the private sector, academia, nongovernmental organizations, and other government agencies. See the Acknowledgements section for a list of reviewers. A copy of the EPA Peer Review guidelines can be downloaded from the following web page at .
http://www.epa.gov/climatechange/EPAactivities/economics/nonco2mitigation.htmlhttp://www.epa.gov/climatechange/EPAactivities/economics/nonco2mitigation.htmlmailto:[email protected]://www.epa.gov/osa/spc/2peerrev.htm
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Acknowledgements
This report was prepared under a contract between the U.S. Environmental Protection
Agency (USEPA) and RTI International. Shaun Ragnauth edited and directed completion
of the report. Lead authors include Jeffry Petrusa of RTI, Shaun Ragnauth of USEPA,
Jameel Alsalam of USEPA, David Godwin of USEPA, Jared Creason of USEPA, Jia Li of
USEPA, and Robert Beach of RTI. We thank USEPA reviewers Reid Harvey, Allison Costa,
Kurt Roos, Tom Wirth, Jefferson Cole, Carey Bylin, Suzanne Waltzer, Tom Frankiewicz,
Chris Godlove, Sally Rand, Kirsten Cappel, Jayne Somers, Melissa Weitz, and Elisa Rim.
Other significant contributors and co-authors include Sara Ohrel of USEPA, William Salas
of Applied GeoSolutions, Changsheng Li of University of New Hampshire, Pete Ingraham
of Applied GeoSolutions, Stephen Ogle of Colorado State University, and
Benjamin Henderson of International Food Policy Research Institute.
The staff at RTI assisted in compiling and finalizing the report. The staff at RTI and
ICF Consulting prepared many of the individual analyses. Special recognition goes to
Jeffrey Petrusa at RTI and Marian Van Pelt at ICF Consulting for their significant
contributions on this project.
We also thank the following external reviewers: Stuart Day (CSIRO Energy Technology),
Clark Talkington (Advanced Resources International), Jon Kelefant (Advanced Resources
International), Mike Godec (Advanced Resources International), Ronald Collings (Ruby
Canyon Engineering), Pam Lacey (American Gas Association), Erica Bowman
(Americas Natural Gas Alliance), Richard Meyer (American Gas Association), Karin Ritter
(American Petroleum Institute), Lisa Beal (Interstate Natural Gas Association of America),
Alex MacPherson (USEPA), David McCabe (Clean Air Task Force), Maureen Hardwick
(International Pharmaceutical Aerosol Consortium), Paul Ashford (Caleb Group),
Debra Reinhart (National Science Foundation), Morton Barlaz (North Carolina State
University), Chris Bayless (World Aluminum), Jerry Marks, Kenneth Martchek (Alcoa),
Lee Bray (U.S. Geological Survey), Silvio Stangherlin (ABB), Archie McCulloch,
Deborah Kramer (U.S. Geological Survey), Roger Desaulniers (Polycontrols), Kurt Werner
(3M), Cynthia Murphy (University of Texas), Lambert Kuijpers (Technical University ECfS),
Robert Wilkins (Danfoss), Bill Neuffer (USEPA), David Hind (Orica), Lorraine Gershman
(American Chemistry Council), Mausami Desai (USEPA), Nathan Frank (USEPA),
Himanshu Pathak (Indian Agricultural Research Institute), Kristen Johnson (Washington
State University), Ron Sass (Rice University), Phil Robertson (Michigan State University),
Arvin Mosier (USDA/ARS), Keith Smith (University of Edinburgh) Steven Smith (Pacific
Northwest National Laboratory), Steven Rose (Electric Power Research Institute),
Francesco Tubiello (UN Food and Agriculture Organization).
Although these individuals participated in the review of this analysis, their efforts do not
constitute an endorsement of the reports results or of any USEPA policies and programs.
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CONTENTS
Contents Section Page
Executive Summary .................................................................................................................... ES-1
I. Technical Summary
I. Technical Summary ........................................................................................................................ I-1 I.1 Overview ............................................................................................................................................. I-1
I.2 Non-CO2 Greenhouse Gases ............................................................................................................. I-1
I.2.1 Methane (CH4)...................................................................................................................... I-2
I.2.2 Nitrous Oxide (N2O)............................................................................................................ I-3
I.2.3 F-Gases Gases ....................................................................................................................... I-3
I.2.4 Use of GWPs in this Report ................................................................................................ I-4
I.3 Methodology ....................................................................................................................................... I-4
I.3.1 Baseline Emissions for Non-CO2 Greenhouse Gases ...................................................... I-5
I.3.2 Mitigation Option Analysis Methodology ....................................................................... I-7
I.3.3 Marginal Abatement Cost Curves ................................................................................... I-13
I.3.4 Methodological Enhancements from Analysis .............................................................. I-15
I.4 Aggregate Results ............................................................................................................................ I-15
I.4.1 Baselines .............................................................................................................................. I-16
I.4.2 Global MACs ...................................................................................................................... I-19
I.5 Limitations and Uncertainties ........................................................................................................ I-20
I.5.1 Exclusion of Transaction Costs ........................................................................................ I-21
I.5.2 Static Approach to Abatement Assessment ................................................................... I-21
I.5.3 Limited Use of Regional Data .......................................................................................... I-21
I.5.4 Exclusion of Indirect Emissions Reductions .................................................................. I-21
References .................................................................................................................................................... I-22
II. Energy
II.1. Coal Mining ..................................................................................................................................... II-1 II.1.1 Sector Summary ............................................................................................................................. II-1
II.1.2 Methane Emissions from Coal Mining ....................................................................................... II-3
II.1.2.1 Activity Data and Related Assumptions .................................................................. II-4
II.1.2.2 Emissions Estimates and Related Assumptions ...................................................... II-5
II.1.3 Abatement Measures and Engineering Cost Analysis ............................................................. II-6
II.1.3.1 Methane Recovery System from Degasification/Drainage Systems .....................II-8
GLOBAL MITIGATION OF NON-CO2 GREENHOUSE GASES III
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CONTENTS
II.1.3.2 Degasification for Utilization in Energy Production .............................................. II-9
II.1.3.3 Degasification for On-site UtilizationProcess Heat ........................................... II-11
II.1.3.4 Combustion through Flaring.................................................................................... II-12
II.1.3.5 VAM Oxidation .......................................................................................................... II-12
II.1.3.6 Evaluation of Future Mitigation Option and Trends ............................................ II-13
II.1.4 Marginal Abatement Costs Analysis ........................................................................................ II-13
II.1.4.1 Methodological Approach ........................................................................................ II-13
II.1.4.2 Assessment of Sectoral Trends................................................................................. II-14
II.1.4.3 Definition of Model Facilities for the Analysis ...................................................... II-15
II.1.4.4 Estimating Abatement Project Costs and Benefits ................................................ II-15
II.1.4.5 MAC Analysis Results .............................................................................................. II-16
II.1.4.6 Uncertainties and Limitations .................................................................................. II-17
References ................................................................................................................................................... II-19
II.2. Oil and Natural Gas Systems ...................................................................................................... II-21 II.2.1 Sector Summary ........................................................................................................................... II-21
II.2.2 Methane Emissions: Oil and Natural Gas Systems ................................................................. II-22
II.2.2.1 Activity Data or Important Sectoral or Regional Trends and Related
Assumptions ............................................................................................................... II-24
II.2.2.2 Emissions Estimates and Related Assumptions .................................................... II-25
II.2.3 Abatement Measures and Engineering Cost Analysis ........................................................... II-26
II.2.3.1 Oil and Natural Gas Production .............................................................................. II-26
II.2.3.2 Gas Processing and Transmission Segments ......................................................... II-29
II.2.3.3 Gas Distribution Segment ......................................................................................... II-34
II.2.4 Marginal Abatement Costs Analysis ........................................................................................ II-35
II.2.4.1 Methodological Approach ........................................................................................ II-35
II.2.4.2 MAC Analysis Results .............................................................................................. II-40
II.2.4.3 Uncertainties and Limitations .................................................................................. II-42
References ................................................................................................................................................... II-43
III. Waste
III.1. Landfill Sector ............................................................................................................................... III-1 III.1.1 Sector Summary ........................................................................................................................... III-1
III.1.2 Methane Emissions from Landfills............................................................................................ III-3
III.1.2.1 Activity Data or Important Sectoral or Regional Trends and Related
Assumptions ............................................................................................................... III-4
III.1.2.2 Emissions Estimates and Related Assumptions .................................................... III-5
III.1.3 Abatement Measures and Engineering Cost Analysis ........................................................... III-6
GLOBAL MITIGATION OF NON-CO2 GREENHOUSE GASES IV
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CONTENTS
III.1.3.1 Landfill CH4 Mitigation Technologies .................................................................... III-7
III.1.3.2 Diversion Alternatives .............................................................................................III-10
III.1.4 Marginal Abatement Costs Analysis .......................................................................................III-15
III.1.4.1 Methodological Approach .......................................................................................III-16
III.1.4.2 MAC Analysis Results .............................................................................................III-22
III.1.4.3 Uncertainties and Limitations .................................................................................III-23
References ..................................................................................................................................................III-24
III.2. Wastewater .................................................................................................................................. III-27 III.2.1 Sector Summary ..........................................................................................................................III-27
III.2.2 GHG Emissions from Wastewater ...........................................................................................III-29
III.2.2.1 CH4 Emissions from Domestic and Industrial Wastewater ................................III-29
III.2.2.2 N2O Emissions from Domestic WastewaterHuman Sewage ..........................III-30
III.2.2.3 Emissions Estimates and Related Assumptions ...................................................III-30
III.2.3 Abatement Measures and Engineering Cost Analysis ..........................................................III-32
III.2.3.1 Overview of Abatement Measures .........................................................................III-34
III.2.3.2 CH4 Mitigation Technology for Existing Decentralized Treatment ...................III-35
III.2.3.3 CH4 Mitigation Technology for Existing Collection System without Treatment ...................................................................................................................III-37
III.2.3.4 CH4 Mitigation Technology for Existing Centralized Aerobic WWTPs ............III-38
III.2.4 Marginal Abatement Costs Analysis .......................................................................................III-40
III.2.4.1 Methodological Approach .......................................................................................III-40
III.2.4.2 MAC Analysis Results .............................................................................................III-42
III.2.4.3 Uncertainties and Limitations .................................................................................III-44
References ..................................................................................................................................................III-45
IV. Industrial Processes
IV.1. Nitric and Adipic Acid Production ...............................................................................................IV-1 IV.1.1 Sector Summary ........................................................................................................................... IV-1
IV.1.2 N2O Emissions from Nitric and Adipic Acid Production ...................................................... IV-2
IV.1.2.1 Nitric Acid Production and Emission Factors ....................................................... IV-2
IV.1.2.2 Adipic Acid Production and Emission Factors...................................................... IV-4
IV.1.2.3 Emissions Estimates and Related Assumptions .................................................... IV-5
IV.1.3 Abatement Measures and Engineering Cost Analysis ........................................................... IV-6
IV.1.3.1 Adipic AcidN2O Abatement Methods ................................................................ IV-7
IV.1.3.2 Nitric AcidPrimary Abatement Measures .......................................................... IV-7
IV.1.3.3 Nitric AcidSecondary Abatement Measures ...................................................... IV-7
GLOBAL MITIGATION OF NON-CO2 GREENHOUSE GASES V
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CONTENTS
IV.1.3.4 Nitric AcidTertiary Abatement Measure: Direct Catalytic Decomposition ........................................................................................................... IV-8
IV.1.3.5 Nitric AcidTertiary Abatement Measure: Non-selective Catalytic Reduction (NSCR)...................................................................................................... IV-9
IV.1.4 Marginal Abatement Costs Analysis ........................................................................................ IV-9
IV.1.4.1 Methodological Approach ........................................................................................ IV-9
IV.1.4.2 MAC Analysis Results ............................................................................................ IV-13
IV.1.4.3 Uncertainties and Limitations ................................................................................ IV-15
References ................................................................................................................................................. IV-16
IV.2. HFC Emissions from Refrigeration and Air Conditioning ......................................................IV-19 IV.2.1 Sector Summary ......................................................................................................................... IV-19
IV.2.2 Emissions from Refrigeration and Air Conditioning............................................................ IV-20
IV.2.2.1 Activity Data or Important Sectoral or Regional Trends.................................... IV-22
IV.2.2.2 Emission Estimates and Related Assumptions .................................................... IV-23
IV.2.3 Abatement Measures and Engineering Cost Analysis ......................................................... IV-23
IV.2.3.1 Enhanced HFC-134a in New MVACs ................................................................... IV-25
IV.2.3.2 HFO-1234yf in New MVACs.................................................................................. IV-25
IV.2.3.3 Enhanced HFO-1234yf in New MVACs ............................................................... IV-25
IV.2.3.4 Distributed Systems in New Large Retail Food .................................................. IV-26
IV.2.3.5 HFC Secondary Loop and/or Cascade Systems in New Large Retail Food..... IV-26
IV.2.3.6 NH3 or HCs Secondary Loop and/or Cascade Systems in New Large
Retail Food ................................................................................................................ IV-27
IV.2.3.7 CO2 Transcritical Systems in New Large Retail Food ........................................ IV-27
IV.2.3.8 Retrofits of R-404A in Large Retail Food .............................................................. IV-28
IV.2.3.9 HCs in New Small Retail Food Refrigeration Systems ....................................... IV-28
IV.2.3.10 HCs in New Window AC and Dehumidifiers ..................................................... IV-29
IV.2.3.11 R-32 in New Unitary AC Equipment and PTAC/PTHP ..................................... IV-29
IV.2.3.12 MCHX in New Unitary AC Equipment................................................................ IV-30
IV.2.3.13 R-32 with MCHX in New Unitary AC Equipment.............................................. IV-30
IV.2.3.14 MCHX in New Positive Displacement Chillers ................................................... IV-30
IV.2.3.15 NH3 or CO2 in New IPR and Cold Storage Systems ........................................... IV-31
IV.2.3.16 Refrigerant Recovery at Disposal for All Existing Equipment Types .............. IV-31
IV.2.3.17 Refrigerant Recovery at Servicing for Existing Small Equipment .................... IV-32
IV.2.3.18 Leak Repair for Existing Large Equipment .......................................................... IV-32
IV.2.3.19 HCs in New Domestic Refrigeration Systems ..................................................... IV-33
IV.2.3.20 CO2 in Transport Refrigeration ............................................................................. IV-33
IV.2.3.21 Low-GWP Refrigerants and Blends ...................................................................... IV-33
GLOBAL MITIGATION OF NON-CO2 GREENHOUSE GASES VI
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CONTENTS
IV.2.4 Engineering Cost Data Summary ............................................................................................ IV-33
IV.2.5 Marginal Abatement Costs Analysis ...................................................................................... IV-35
IV.2.5.1 Methodological Approach ...................................................................................... IV-36
IV.2.5.2 Assessment of Technical Effectiveness ................................................................. IV-36
IV.2.5.3 Estimating Abatement Project Costs and Benefits .............................................. IV-39
IV.2.5.4 MAC Analysis Results ............................................................................................ IV-41
IV.2.6 Uncertainties and Limitations .................................................................................................. IV-42
References ................................................................................................................................................. IV-44
IV.3. HFC Emissions from Solvent Use .............................................................................................IV-49 IV.3.1 Sector Summary ......................................................................................................................... IV-49
IV.3.2 Emissions from Solvents ........................................................................................................... IV-50
IV.3.2.1 Activity Data or Important Sectoral or Regional Trends.................................... IV-51
IV.3.2.2 Emission Estimates and Related Assumptions .................................................... IV-51
IV.3.3 Abatement Measures and Engineering Cost Analysis ......................................................... IV-52
IV.3.3.1 HFC to HFE .............................................................................................................. IV-53
IV.3.3.2 Retrofit....................................................................................................................... IV-53
IV.3.3.3 Not-in-Kind Aqueous.............................................................................................. IV-54
IV.3.3.4 Not-in-Kind Semi-aqueous ..................................................................................... IV-54
IV.3.3.5 Low-GWP Alternatives ........................................................................................... IV-54
IV.3.3.6 Engineering Cost Data Summary .......................................................................... IV-55
IV.3.4 Marginal Abatement Costs Analysis ...................................................................................... IV-55
IV.3.4.1 Methodological Approach ...................................................................................... IV-56
IV.3.4.2 Assessment of Technical Effectiveness ................................................................. IV-56
IV.3.4.3 Estimating Abatement Project Costs and Benefits .............................................. IV-56
IV.3.4.4 MAC Analysis Results ............................................................................................ IV-57
IV.3.5 Uncertainties and Limitations .................................................................................................. IV-58
References ................................................................................................................................................. IV-59
IV.4. HFC Emissions from Foams Manufacturing ............................................................................IV-61 IV.4.1 Sector Summary ......................................................................................................................... IV-61
IV.4.2 Emissions from Foams .............................................................................................................. IV-62
IV.4.2.1 Activity Data, Important Sectoral or Regional Trends and Related
Assumptions ............................................................................................................. IV-64
IV.4.2.2 Emission Estimates and Related Assumptions .................................................... IV-64
IV.4.3 Abatement Measures and Engineering Cost Analysis ......................................................... IV-64
IV.4.3.1 HCs in PU Appliances............................................................................................. IV-66
IV.4.3.2 HCs in Commercial Refrigeration ......................................................................... IV-66
GLOBAL MITIGATION OF NON-CO2 GREENHOUSE GASES VII
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CONTENTS
IV.4.3.3 HC in Polyurethane Spray Foams ......................................................................... IV-67
IV.4.3.4 CO2 in Polyurethane Spray Foams ....................................................................... IV-67
IV.4.3.5 LCD/Alcohol in XPS Boardstock ........................................................................... IV-67
IV.4.3.6 HFC-134a to HCs in PU One-Component Foam ................................................. IV-68
IV.4.3.7 HFC-152a to HCs in PU One-Component Foam ................................................. IV-68
IV.4.3.8 HCs in PU Continuous and Discontinuous Foams ............................................. IV-68
IV.4.3.9 Manual Blowing Agent Recovery from Appliances at End of Life (EOL) ....... IV-69
IV.4.3.10 Fully Automated Blowing Agent Recovery from Appliances at EOL ............. IV-69
IV.4.3.11 Solstice Liquid Blowing Agent in PU Foams ....................................................... IV-69
IV.4.3.12 Solstice Gas Blowing Agent in XPS Foam and One-Component Foam ........... IV-70
IV.4.3.13 Methyl Formate in PU and XPS Foams................................................................. IV-71
IV.4.4 Engineering Cost Data Summary ............................................................................................ IV-71
IV.4.5 Marginal Abatement Cost Analysis ........................................................................................ IV-72
IV.4.5.1 Methodological Approach ...................................................................................... IV-72
IV.4.5.2 Assessment of Technical Effectiveness ................................................................. IV-72
IV.4.5.3 Estimating Abatement Project Costs and Benefits .............................................. IV-73
IV.4.5.4 MAC Analysis Results ............................................................................................ IV-74
IV.4.6 Uncertainties and Limitations .................................................................................................. IV-74
References ................................................................................................................................................. IV-76
IV.5. HFC Emissions from Aerosol Product Use ..............................................................................IV-79 IV.5.1 Sector Summary ......................................................................................................................... IV-79
IV.5.2 Emissions from Aerosol Product Use ..................................................................................... IV-80
IV.5.2.1 Activity Data or Important Sectoral or Regional Trends.................................... IV-81
IV.5.2.2 Emission Estimates and Related Assumptions .................................................... IV-81
IV.5.3 Abatement Measures and Engineering Cost Analysis ......................................................... IV-81
IV.5.3.1 Hydrocarbons ........................................................................................................... IV-82
IV.5.3.2 Not-in-Kind .............................................................................................................. IV-83
IV.5.3.3 HFO-1234ze .............................................................................................................. IV-83
IV.5.3.4 HFC-134a to HFC-152a ........................................................................................... IV-84
IV.5.3.5 Dry Powder Inhalers ............................................................................................... IV-84
IV.5.3.6 Engineering Cost Data Summary .......................................................................... IV-85
IV.5.4 Marginal Abatement Costs Analysis ...................................................................................... IV-85
IV.5.4.1 Methodological Approach ...................................................................................... IV-85
IV.5.4.2 Assessment of Technical Effectiveness ................................................................. IV-85
IV.5.4.3 Estimating Abatement Project Costs and Benefits .............................................. IV-86
IV.5.4.4 MAC Analysis Results ............................................................................................ IV-87
GLOBAL MITIGATION OF NON-CO2 GREENHOUSE GASES VIII
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CONTENTS
IV.5.5 Uncertainties and Limitations .................................................................................................. IV-88
References ................................................................................................................................................. IV-89
IV.6. HFC and PFC Emissions from Fire Protection.........................................................................IV-91 IV.6.1 Sector Summary ......................................................................................................................... IV-91
IV.6.2 Emissions from Fire Protection ................................................................................................ IV-92
IV.6.2.1 Activity Data or Important Sectoral or Regional Trends.................................... IV-93
IV.6.2.2 Emission Estimates and Related Assumptions .................................................... IV-93
IV.6.3 Abatement Measures and Engineering Cost Analysis ......................................................... IV-94
IV.6.3.1 FK-5-1-12 in New Class A Total Flooding Applications .................................... IV-95
IV.6.3.2 Inert Gas Systems in New Class A Total Flooding Applications ...................... IV-96
IV.6.3.3 Water Mist Systems in New Class B Total Flooding Applications ................... IV-96
IV.6.4 Engineering Cost Data Summary ............................................................................................ IV-97
IV.6.5 Marginal Abatement Cost Analysis ........................................................................................ IV-97
IV.6.5.1 Methodological Approach ...................................................................................... IV-97
IV.6.5.2 Assessment of Technical Effectiveness ................................................................. IV-98
IV.6.5.3 Estimating Abatement Project Costs and Benefits .............................................. IV-99
IV.6.5.4 MAC Analysis Results ............................................................................................ IV-99
IV.6.6 Uncertainties and Limitations .................................................................................................. IV-99
References ............................................................................................................................................... IV-101
IV.7. PFC Emissions from Primary Aluminum Production ........................................................... IV-103 IV.7.1 Sector Summary ....................................................................................................................... IV-103
IV.7.2 Emissions from Primary Aluminum Production ................................................................ IV-105
IV.7.2.1 Activity Data and Important Trends ................................................................... IV-106
IV.7.2.2 Emission Estimates and Related Assumptions .................................................. IV-107
IV.7.3 Abatement Measures and Engineering Cost Analysis ....................................................... IV-108
IV.7.3.1 Minor Retrofit ......................................................................................................... IV-109
IV.7.3.2 Major Retrofit ......................................................................................................... IV-109
IV.7.3.3 Engineering Cost Data Summary ........................................................................ IV-110
IV.7.4 Marginal Abatement Costs Analysis .................................................................................... IV-110
IV.7.4.1 Methodological Approach .................................................................................... IV-111
IV.7.4.2 Definition of Model Facilities ............................................................................... IV-111
IV.7.4.3 Assessment of Technical Effectiveness ............................................................... IV-111
IV.7.4.4 Estimating Abatement Project Costs and Benefits ............................................ IV-112
IV.7.4.5 MAC Analysis Results .......................................................................................... IV-113
IV.7.4 Uncertainties and Limitations ................................................................................................ IV-114
References ............................................................................................................................................... IV-115
GLOBAL MITIGATION OF NON-CO2 GREENHOUSE GASES IX
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CONTENTS
IV.8. HFC-23 Emissions from HCFC-22 Production ...................................................................... IV-117 IV.8.1 Sector Summary ....................................................................................................................... IV-117
IV.8.1.1 Emissions from HCFC-22 Production................................................................. IV-119
IV.8.1.2 Activity Data or Important Sectoral or Regional Trends.................................. IV-119
IV.8.1.3 Emission Estimates and Related Assumptions .................................................. IV-120
IV.8.2 Abatement Measures and Engineering Cost Analysis ....................................................... IV-122
IV.8.2.1 Thermal Oxidation................................................................................................. IV-123
IV.8.2.2 Evaluation of Future Mitigation Options and Trends ...................................... IV-123
IV.8.3 Marginal Abatement Costs Analysis .................................................................................... IV-124
IV.8.3.1 Methodological Approach .................................................................................... IV-124
IV.8.3.2 Assessment of Technical Effectiveness ............................................................... IV-124
IV.8.3.3 Estimating Abatement Project Costs and Benefits ............................................ IV-125
IV.8.3.4 MAC Analysis Results .......................................................................................... IV-125
IV.8.4 Uncertainties and Limitations ................................................................................................ IV-127
References ............................................................................................................................................... IV-128
IV.9. F-GHG Emissions from Semiconductor Manufacturing ...................................................... IV-129 IV.9.1 Sector Summary ....................................................................................................................... IV-129
IV.9.2 Emissions from Semiconductor Manufacturing .................................................................. IV-131
IV.9.2.1 Activity Data or Important Sectoral or Regional Trends.................................. IV-131
IV.9.2.2 Emissions Estimates and Related Assumptions ................................................ IV-133
IV.9.3 Abatement Measures and Engineering Cost Analysis ....................................................... IV-134
IV.9.3.1 Thermal Abatement ............................................................................................... IV-135
IV.9.3.2 Catalytic Abatement .............................................................................................. IV-136
IV.9.3.3 Plasma Abatement ................................................................................................. IV-136
IV.9.3.4 NF3 Remote Chamber Clean................................................................................. IV-137
IV.9.3.5 Gas Replacement.................................................................................................... IV-138
IV.9.3.6 Process Optimization ............................................................................................ IV-138
IV.9.4 Marginal Abatement Cost Analysis ...................................................................................... IV-139
IV.9.4.1 Methodological Approach .................................................................................... IV-139
IV.9.4.2 Definition of Model Facilities ............................................................................... IV-140
IV.9.4.3 Assessment of Technical Effectiveness ............................................................... IV-140
IV.9.4.4 Estimating Abatement Project Costs and Benefits ............................................ IV-142
IV.9.4.5 MAC Analysis Results .......................................................................................... IV-143
IV.9.5 Uncertainties and Limitations ................................................................................................ IV-144
References ............................................................................................................................................... IV-145
GLOBAL MITIGATION OF NON-CO2 GREENHOUSE GASES X
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CONTENTS
IV.10. SF6 Emissions from Electric Power Systems........................................................................ IV-147 IV.10.1 Sector Summary ....................................................................................................................... IV-147
IV.10.2 SF6 Emissions from Electric Power Systems ........................................................................ IV-149
IV.10.2.1 Activity Data or Important Sectoral or Regional Trends.................................. IV-150
IV.10.2.2 Emission Estimates and Related Assumptions .................................................. IV-152
IV.10.3 Abatement Measures and Engineering Cost Analysis ....................................................... IV-153
IV.10.3.1 SF6 Recycling........................................................................................................... IV-153
IV.10.3.2 Leak Detection and Leak Repair (LDAR) ........................................................... IV-155
IV.10.3.3 Equipment Refurbishment ................................................................................... IV-155
IV.10.3.4 Improved SF6 Handling ....................................................................................... IV-156
IV.10.4 Marginal Abatement Costs Analysis .................................................................................... IV-157
IV.10.4.1 Methodological Approach .................................................................................... IV-157
IV.10.4.2 Definition of EPS Model Facilities ....................................................................... IV-157
IV.10.4.3 Parameters Used to Estimate Technical Effectiveness ...................................... IV-159
IV.10.4.4 Estimating Abatement Project Costs and Benefits ............................................ IV-159
IV.10.4.5 MAC Analysis Results .......................................................................................... IV-160
IV.10.5 Uncertainties and Limitations ................................................................................................ IV-162
References ............................................................................................................................................... IV-163
IV.11. SF6 Emissions from Magnesium Production........................................................................ IV-165 IV.11.1 Sector Summary ....................................................................................................................... IV-165
IV.11.2 SF6 Emissions from Magnesium Manufacturing ................................................................. IV-166
IV.11.2.1 Activity Data or Important Sectoral or Regional Trends.................................. IV-167
IV.11.2.2 Emission Estimates and Related Assumptions .................................................. IV-168
IV.11.3 Abatement Measures and Engineering Cost Analysis ....................................................... IV-169
IV.11.3.1 Replacement with Alternative Cover GasSulfur Dioxide (SO2) .................. IV-169
IV.11.3.2 Replacement with Alternative Cover GasHFC 134a ..................................... IV-170
IV.11.3.3 Replacement with Alternative Cover GasNovec 612 ................................ IV-170
IV.11.3.4 Summary of Mitigation Technology Costs and Characteristics ...................... IV-170
IV.11.4 Marginal Abatement Costs Analysis .................................................................................... IV-171
IV.11.4.1 Methodological Approach .................................................................................... IV-171
IV.11.4.2 Model Facilities Defined ....................................................................................... IV-171
IV.11.4.3 Assessment of Technical Effectiveness ............................................................... IV-172
IV.11.4.4 Estimating Abatement Project Costs and Benefits ............................................ IV-172
IV.11.4.5 MAC Analysis Results .......................................................................................... IV-172
IV.11.5 Uncertainties and Limitations ................................................................................................ IV-174
References ............................................................................................................................................... IV-175
GLOBAL MITIGATION OF NON-CO2 GREENHOUSE GASES XI
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IV.12. Emissions from Photovoltaic Cell Manufacturing ................................................................ IV-177 IV.12.1 Sector Summary ....................................................................................................................... IV-177
IV.12.2 Emissions from Photovoltaic Cell Manufacturing .............................................................. IV-178
IV.12.2.1 Activity Data and Important Sectoral/Regional Trends ................................... IV-180
IV.12.2.2 Emissions Estimates and Related Assumptions ................................................ IV-180
IV.12.3 Abatement Measures and Engineering Cost Analysis ....................................................... IV-181
IV.12.3.1 Thermal Abatement ............................................................................................... IV-182
IV.12.3.2 Catalytic Abatement .............................................................................................. IV-183
IV.12.3.3 Plasma Abatement ................................................................................................. IV-183
IV.12.3.4 NF3 Remote Chamber Clean................................................................................. IV-183
IV.12.3.5 Summary of Mitigation Technology Costs and Characteristics ...................... IV-184
IV.12.4 Marginal Abatement Costs Analysis .................................................................................... IV-184
IV.12.4.1 Methodological Approach .................................................................................... IV-184
IV.12.4.2 Definition of Model Facility ................................................................................. IV-184
IV.12.4.3 Assessment of Technical Effectiveness ............................................................... IV-185
IV.12.4.4 Estimating the Break-Even Price of Abatement Measures ............................... IV-185
IV.12.4.5 MAC Analysis Results .......................................................................................... IV-186
IV.12.5 Uncertainties and Limitations ................................................................................................ IV-187
References ............................................................................................................................................... IV-189
IV.13. PFC Emissions from Flat Panel Display Manufacturing ...................................................... IV-191 IV.13.1 Sector Summary ....................................................................................................................... IV-191
IV.13.2 Emissions from Flat Panel Display Manufacturing ............................................................ IV-192
IV.13.2.1 Activity Data or Important Sectoral or Regional Trends and Related
Assumptions ........................................................................................................... IV-193
IV.13.2.2 Emissions Estimates and Related Assumptions ................................................ IV-194
IV.13.3 Abatement Measures and Engineering Cost Analysis ....................................................... IV-194
IV.13.3.1 Central Abatement................................................................................................. IV-195
IV.13.3.2 Thermal Abatement ............................................................................................... IV-195
IV.13.3.3 Catalytic Abatement .............................................................................................. IV-195
IV.13.3.4 Plasma Abatement ................................................................................................. IV-196
IV.13.3.5 NF3 Remote Chamber Clean................................................................................. IV-196
IV.13.3.6 Gas Replacement.................................................................................................... IV-196
IV.13.3.7 Summary of Mitigation Technology Costs and Characteristics ...................... IV-197
IV.13.4 Marginal Abatement Costs Analysis .................................................................................... IV-197
IV.13.4.1 Methodological Approach .................................................................................... IV-197
IV.13.4.2 Facility Definition .................................................................................................. IV-197
IV.13.4.3 Estimating the Technical Effectiveness Parameter ............................................ IV-197
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IV.13.4.4 Estimating Break-Even Prices .............................................................................. IV-198
IV.13.4.5 MAC Analysis Results .......................................................................................... IV-199
IV.13.5 Uncertainties and Limitations ................................................................................................ IV-200
References ............................................................................................................................................... IV-201
V. Agriculture
V.1. Non-Rice Croplands .......................................................................................................................V-1 V.1.1 Sector Summary .............................................................................................................................V-1
V.1.2 Emissions from Non-Rice Croplands..........................................................................................V-4
V.1.2.1 Methodology ................................................................................................................V-4
V.1.3 Abatement Measures and Engineering Cost Analysis .............................................................V-6
V.1.3.1 Mitigation Technologies ............................................................................................V-6
V.1.4 Marginal Abatement Costs Analysis ........................................................................................V-11
V.1.4.1 Estimate Abatement Measure Costs and Benefits .................................................V-11
V.1.4.2 MAC Analysis Results ..............................................................................................V-11
V.1.5 Sensitivity Analysis .....................................................................................................................V-13
V.1.5 Uncertainties and Limitations ....................................................................................................V-15
References ...................................................................................................................................................V-17
V.2. Rice Cultivation ............................................................................................................................V-19 V.2.1 Sector Summary ...........................................................................................................................V-19
V.2.2 CH4 and N2O Emissions and Changes in Soil Carbon from Rice Cultivation.....................V-21
V.2.2.1 Activity Data or Important Sectoral or Regional Trends and Related
Assumptions ...............................................................................................................V-22
V.2.2.2 Emissions Estimates and Related Assumptions ....................................................V-32
V.2.3 Abatement Measures and Engineering Cost Analysis ...........................................................V-32
V.2.4 Marginal Abatement Costs Analysis ........................................................................................V-36
V.2.4.1 MAC Analysis Results ..............................................................................................V-36
V.2.5 Sensitivity Analyses ....................................................................................................................V-39
V.2.5. Uncertainties and Limitations .........................................................................................V-41
References ...................................................................................................................................................V-42
V.3. Livestock .......................................................................................................................................V-43 V.3.1 Sector Summary ...........................................................................................................................V-43
V.3.2 CH4 and N2O Emissions from Livestock Management ..........................................................V-46
V.3.2.1 CH4 Emissions from Enteric Fermentation............................................................V-46
V.3.2.2 CH4 and N2O Emissions from Manure Management ...........................................V-46
V.3.2.3 Baseline CH4 and N2O Emissions Estimates ..........................................................V-47
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CONTENTS
V.3.3 Abatement Measures and Engineering Cost Analysis ...........................................................V-50
V.3.3.1 Enteric Fermentation CH4 Mitigation Technologies .............................................V-50
V.3.3.2 Manure Management CH4 Mitigation Technologies ............................................V-53
V.3.4 Marginal Abatement Costs Analysis ........................................................................................V-58
V.3.4.1 Development of Disaggregated Baseline Livestock Populations ........................V-58
V.3.4.4 MAC Analysis Results ..............................................................................................V-63
V.3.5 Sensitivity Analyses ....................................................................................................................V-65
V.3.4.5. Uncertainties and Limitations ..................................................................................V-71
References ...................................................................................................................................................V-73
Appendixes A: Tables.............................................................................................................................................. A-1
B: Coal Mining .................................................................................................................................... B-1
C: Natural Gas and Oil Systems .......................................................................................................C-1
D: Refrigeration and Air Conditioning ........................................................................................... D-1
E: Solvent Use ..................................................................................................................................... E-1
F: Foams Manufacturing ................................................................................................................... F-1
G: Aerosol Product Use..................................................................................................................... G-1
H: Fire Protection ............................................................................................................................... H-1
I: Primary Aluminum Production ................................................................................................... I-1
J: HCFC-22 Production ...................................................................................................................... J-1
K: Electric Power Systems .................................................................................................................K-1
L: Magnesium Manufacturing.......................................................................................................... L-1
M: Photovoltaic Cell Manufacturing ............................................................................................... M-1
N: Flat Panel Display Manufacturing.............................................................................................. N-1
O: Description of the Input Data Used in DAYCENT Simulations ............................................ O-1
GLOBAL MITIGATION OF NON-CO2 GREENHOUSE GASES XIV
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CONTENTS
List of Figures Number Page
Section I I-1 Contribution of Anthropogenic Emissions of Greenhouse Gases to the Enhanced
Greenhouse Effect from Preindustrial to Present (measured in watts/meter2) ...................... I-2 I-2 Illustrative Non-CO2 Marginal Abatement Curve ................................................................... I-13 I-3 Percentage Share of Global Non-CO2 Emissionsa by Type of Gas in 2010............................ I-16 I-4 Non-CO2 Global Emissions Forecast to 2030 by Greenhouse Gas ......................................... I-17 I-5 Global Emissions by Major Sector for all Non-CO2 Greenhouse Gases ................................ I-18 I-6 Projected World Emissions Baseline for Non-CO2 Greenhouse Gases, Including
Top Emitting Regions................................................................................................................... I-18 I-7 Global 2030 MACs by Non-CO2 Greenhouse Gas.................................................................... I-19 I-8 Global 2030 MACs for Non-CO2 Greenhouse Gases by Major Emitting Regions ............... I-20 I-9 Global 2030 MACs for Non-CO2 Greenhouse Gases by Major Emitting Regions ............... I-20
Section II 1-1 CH4 Emissions from Coal Mining: 20002030............................................................................II-1 1-2 Global Abatement Potential in Coal Mining: 2010, 2020, and 2030 ........................................II-2 1-3 Flow Chart of the Coal Mining Sector MAC Modeling Approach .......................................II-14 1-4 Marginal Abatement Cost Curve for Top 5 Emitters and Rest of World in 2030 ...............II-17 2-1 Emissions Projections for the Oil and Natural Gas Systems Sector: 20002030 ..................II-21 2-2 Global Abatement Potential in Oil and Natural Gas Systems: 2010, 2020, and 2030 .........II-22 2-3 Segments of Oil and Natural Gas Systems ...............................................................................II-23 2-4 Global Natural Gas Production: 20152035 .............................................................................II-24 2-5 Diagram of BAU Emissions for the United States Oil and Natural Gas System.................II-37 2-6 Marginal Abatement Cost Curves for Top 5 Emitters in 2030...............................................II-41
Section III 1-1 Emissions Projections for the Landfill Sector: 20002030 ....................................................... III-1 1-2 Global Abatement Potential in Landfill Sector: 2010, 2020, and 2030................................... III-2 1-3 Conceptual Model for Estimating Mitigation Potential in the MSW Landfill Sector ....... III-17 1-4 Marginal Abatement Cost Curve for Top 5 Emitters in 2030 .............................................. III-23 2-1 CH4 Emissions from Wastewater: 20002030......................................................................... III-27 2-2 N2O Emissions from Domestic Wastewater: 20002030 ....................................................... III-28 2-3 Global MAC for Wastewater: 2010, 2020, and 2030 .............................................................. III-29 2-4 Sanitation Ladder for Improvements to Wastewater Treatment ........................................ III-33 2-5 Five Existing Scenarios Evaluated for Given Wastewater Discharge Pathways
Based on Technology Level, Treatment Alternative, and Collection Method .................. III-33 2-6 Mitigation Technology Approach for Developing Countries with Decentralized
Treatment .................................................................................................................................... III-35 2-7 Mitigation Technology Approach for Developing Countries with Decentralized
Treatment .................................................................................................................................... III-38 2-8 Mitigation Technology Approach for Countries with Existing Centralized WWTPs ...... III-39 2-9 Domestic Wastewater MAC Analysis Flow Chart ................................................................ III-40
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2-10 Share of Wastewater CH4 Emissions to Domestic and Industrial Sources (Avg. 20022007)................................................................................................................................... III-41
2-11 Marginal Abatement Cost Curve for Top 5 Emitters in 2020 .............................................. III-43
Section IV 1-1 N2O Emissions from Nitric and Adipic Acid: 20002030 ....................................................... IV-1 1-2 Global MAC for Nitric and Adipic Acid: 2010, 2020, and 2030 ............................................. IV-2 1-3 Adipic Acid Production Capacity by Country: 2010 .............................................................. IV-4 1-4 Operational Adipic Acid Production Facilities in 2010 by Share of Global Capacity ...... IV-11 1-5 Marginal Abatement Cost Curve for Top 5 Emitters in 2030 .............................................. IV-14 2-1 HFC Emissions from Refrigeration and AC: 20002030 (MtCO2e) ..................................... IV-19 2-2 Global Abatement Potential in Refrigeration and AC: 2010, 2020, and 2030 .................... IV-20 2-3 Global HFC Emissions in 2020 by Application Type (% of GWP-Weighted
Emissions) ................................................................................................................................... IV-21 2-4 Marginal Abatement Cost Curves for Top Five Emitters in 2030 ....................................... IV-42 3-1 HFC and PFC Emissions from Solvent Use: 20002030 (MtCO2e)...................................... IV-49 3-2 Global Abatement Potential in Solvent Use: 2010, 2020, and 2030 ..................................... IV-50 3-3 Global HFC Emissions in 2020 by Degreaser Type (% of GWP-Weighted Emissions) .... IV-51 3-4 Marginal Abatement Cost Curves for Top Five Emitters in 2030 ....................................... IV-58 4-1 HFC Emissions from Foams Manufacturing: 20002030 (MtCO2e).................................... IV-61 4-2 Global Abatement Potential in Foams Manufacturing: 2010, 2020, and 2030 ................... IV-62 4-3 Global HFC Emissions in 2020 by Application Type (% of GWP-Weighted
Emissions) ................................................................................................................................... IV-63 4-4 Marginal Abatement Cost Curves for Top Five Foam Emitters in 2030 ............................ IV-75 5-1 HFC Emissions from Aerosol Product Use: 20002030 (MtCO2e) ...................................... IV-79 5-2 Global Abatement Potential in Aerosol Product Use: 2010, 2020, and 2030 ...................... IV-80 5-3 Global HFC Emissions in 2020 by Facility Type (% of GWP-Weighted Emissions)......... IV-81 5-4 Marginal Abatement Cost Curves for Top Five Emitters in 2030 ....................................... IV-88 6-1 HFC and PFC Emissions from Fire Protection: 20002030 (MtCO2e)................................. IV-91 6-2 Global Abatement Potential in Fire Protection: 2010, 2020, and 2030 ................................ IV-92 6-3 Global HFC and PFC Emissions in 2020 (% of GWP-Weighted Emissions)...................... IV-93 6-4 Marginal Abatement Cost Curves for Top Five Emitters in 2030 ..................................... IV-100 7-1 PFC Emissions from Primary Aluminum Production: 20002030 (MtCO2e) .................. IV-104 7-2 Global Abatement Potential in Primary Aluminum Production: 2010, 2020, and
2030 ............................................................................................................................................ IV-105 7-3 Global PFC Emissions in 2020 by Facility Type (% of GWP-Weighted Emissions) ....... IV-106 7-4 Marginal Abatement Cost Curves for Top Five Emitters in 2030 ..................................... IV-114 8-1 HCF-23 Emissions from HCFC-22 Production: 20002030 (MtCO2e) .............................. IV-117 8-2 Global Abatement Potential in HCFC-22 Production: 2010, 2020, and 2030 ................... IV-118 8-3 Global HFC-23 Emissions in 2020 by Facility Type (% of GWP-Weighted
Emissions) ................................................................................................................................. IV-120 8-4 Marginal Abatement Cost Curves for Countries with Abatement Potential in 2030 ..... IV-126 9-1 Projected Baseline Emissions from Semiconductor Manufacturing: 20002030
(MtCO2e) ................................................................................................................................... IV-129 9-2 Global Abatement Potential in Semiconductor Manufacturing: 2010, 2020, and 2030 .. IV-130 9-3 Global F-GHG Emissions in 2020 by Fab Type and Process (% of GWP-Weighted
Emissions) ................................................................................................................................. IV-132
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9-4 Marginal Abatement Cost Curves for Top Five Emitters in 2030 ..................................... IV-143 10-1 SF6 Emissions from Electric Power Systems: 20002030 (MtCO2e) ................................... IV-147 10-2 Global Abatement Potential in Electric Power Systems: 2010, 2020, and 2030................ IV-148 10-3 Percentage of Global SF6 Emissions in 2020 by Emission Stream (% of GWP-
Weighted Emissions) ............................................................................................................... IV-149 10-4 Global SF6 Emissions in 2020 by Facility Type (% of GWP-Weighted Emissions) ......... IV-151 10-5 Distribution of 2010 Emission Rates Reported through USEPAs Voluntary
Partnership ............................................................................................................................... IV-158 10-6 Marginal Abatement Cost Curves for Top Five and Rest of World Emitters in 2030 .... IV-161 11-1 SF6 Emissions from Magnesium Production: 20002030 (MtCO2e) .................................. IV-165 11-2 Global Abatement Potential in Magnesium Manufacturing: 2010, 2020, and 2030 ........ IV-166 11-3 Global SF6 Emissions in 2020 by Facility Type (% of GWP-Weighted Emissions) ......... IV-167 11-4 Marginal Abatement Cost Curves for Top Five Emitters in 2030 ..................................... IV-174 12-1 F-GHG Emissions from PV Cell Manufacturing: 20002030 (MtCO2e)............................ IV-177 12-2 Global Abatement Potential in PV Cell Manufacturing: 2010, 2020, and 2030................ IV-178 12-3 Global F-GHG Emissions in 2020 by Facility Type (% of GWP-Weighted Emissions) .. IV-179 12-4 Marginal Abatement Cost Curves for Top Five Emitters and Rest of World in 2030 .... IV-187 13-1 F-GHG Emissions from FPD Manufacturing: 20002030 (MtCO2e) ................................. IV-191 13-2 Global Abatement Potential in FPD Manufacturing: 2010, 2020, and 2030 ..................... IV-192 13-3 Global F-GHG Emissions in 2020 by Facility Type (% of GWP-Weighted Emissions) .. IV-193 13-4 Marginal Abatement Cost Curves by Emitting County in 2030........................................ IV-199
Section V 1-1 Global Baseline Emissions from Non-Rice Croplands by GHG: 2010-2030 ......................... V-2 1-2 Baseline Net GHG Emissions from Non-Rice Croplands, Top Five Emitting
Countries........................................................................................................................................ V-3 1-3 Global MAC Curve for Net GHG Reductions from Non-Rice Cropland Soils .................... V-4 1-4 Marginal Abatement Cost Curve for Top-Five Emitting Countries in 2010 and 2030 ...... V-12 1-5 Global Abatement Potential in Non-rice Croplands Management: 2010, 2020, and
2030 (Includes Optimal N Fertilization Strategy) ............................................................... V-14 1-6 Marginal Abatement Cost Curve for Top 5 Emitters in 2010, 2030 (Includes
Optimal N Fertilization Strategy) ......................................................................................... V-15 2-1 Net GHG Emissions Projections for Rice Cultivation: 20002030........................................ V-19 2-2 Global Abatement Potential in Rice Cultivation with Production Equal to Baseline
Levels: 2010, 2020, and 2030 ...................................................................................................... V-21 2-3 DNDC Rice Cropland Area Sown, Top 5 countries, by Type and Water
Management ................................................................................................................................ V-23 2-4 Marginal Abatement Cost Curve for Top 5 Emitters in 2030, Baseline Production
Case............................................................................................................................................... V-39 2-5 Marginal Abatement Cost Curve, Baseline Area Case .......................................................... V-40 2-6 Marginal Abatement Cost Curve for Top 5 Emitters in 2030, Baseline Area Case ............ V-40 3-1 Total Net GHG Emissions and Projections for the Livestock Sector: 2000-2030 ................ V-43 3-2 CH4 Emissions Projections for the Livestock Sector: 20102030 .......................................... V-44 3-3 N20 Emissions Projections from the Livestock Sector: 20102030 ........................................ V-44 3-4 Global Abatement Potential in Livestock Management: 2010, 2020, and 2030 .................. V-45 3-5 Marginal Abatement Cost Curve for Top 5 Emitters in 2030 (Baseline Production
Case) ............................................................................................................................................. V-64
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3-6 Global Net GHG Livestock Emissions Reduction Potential by Mitigation Option (Baseline Production Case) ........................................................................................................ V-65
3-7 Global Abatement Potential in Livestock Management, Baseline Number of Animals : 2010, 2020, and 2030.................................................................................................. V-66
3-8 Global Abatement Potential in Livestock Management, Baseline Production with No Antimethanogen: 2010, 2020, and 2030 ............................................................................. V-67
3-9 Global Abatement Potential in Livestock Management, Baseline Number of Animals with No Antimethanogen: 2010, 2020, and 2030 .................................................... V-69
3-10 Global Beef Production under Baseline and Mitigation Options, Assuming Full
Adoption of Individual Options and Holding the Number of Animals Constant ............ V-70
3-11 Global Production of Milk from Dairy Cattle Under Baseline and Mitigation Options, Assuming Full Adoption of Individual Options and Holding the Number of Animals Constant ................................................................................................................... V-71
GLOBAL MITIGATION OF NON-CO2 GREENHOUSE GASES XVIII
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List of Tables Number Page
Section I I-1 Global Non-CO2 Greenhouse Gas (GHG) Emissions for 2010 (MtCO2e) by Source
and Gas Type................................................................................................................................... I-2 I-2 Global Warming Potentials ........................................................................................................... I-4 I-3 Calculation of Potential Emission Reduction for an Abatement Option ................................ I-9 I-4 Financial Assumptions in Breakeven Price Calculations for Abatement Options .............. I-11 I-5 International Economic Adjustment Factors for Selected Countries ..................................... I-12
Section II 1-1 IPCC Suggested Underground Emissions Factors for Selected Countries in
m3/tonne Coal Produced ...............................................................................................................II-5 1-2 Projected Emissions from Coal Mine CH4 by Country and Region: 2010 to 2030
(MtCO2e) .........................................................................................................................................II-6 1-3 Summary of Abatement Measures for Coal Mines ...................................................................II-7 1-4 Factors Used to Estimate Abatement Potential in Coal Mines ................................................II-7 1-5 Example Break-Even Price Calculation for Coal Mine Abatement Measures .....................II-15 1-6 Abatement Potential by Region at Selected Break-Even Prices ($/tCO2e) in 2030 ..............II-16 2-1 Emissions Source from Oil and Natural Gas Systems ............................................................II-23 2-2 Projected Baseline CH4 Emissions for Oil and Natural Gas Systems by
Country/Region: 20102030 (MtCO2e) ......................................................................................II-25 2-3 Abatement Measures Applied in Oil and Gas Production Segments ..................................II-27 2-4 Abatement Measures for the Natural Gas Processing Segment ............................................II-30 2-5 Abatement Measures for the Natural Gas Transmission Segment .......................................II-31 2-6 Abatement Measures for the Distribution Segment ...............................................................II-34 2-7 International Statistics on Key Activity Drivers: 2010 ............................................................II-36 2-8 Example Break-Even Price Calculation based on 2010 MAC for the United States ...........II-39 2-9 Abatement Potential by Region at Selected Break-Even Prices in 2030 ...............................II-41
Section III 1-1 Projected Baseline Emissions for MSW Landfills by Country: 20102030 (MtCO2e) ......... III-5 1-2 Summary of the Engineering and Cost Assumptions for Abatement Measures at
Landfills ........................................................................................................................................ III-6 1-3 Electricity Generation Technology Costs ................................................................................. III-8 1-4 Model Facilities Share of BAU Emissions: 20102030........................................................... III-18 1-5 Model Facility Assumptions for International LFG Mitigation Options ........................... III-19 1-6 CH4 Generation Factors by Country ....................................................................................... III-20 1-7 Example Break-Even Prices for MSW Landfill Technology Options ................................. III-21 1-8 Break-Even Prices of Waste Diversion Options..................................................................... III-21 1-9 Abatement Potential by Region at Selected Break-Even Prices in 2030 (MtCO2e)............ III-22 2-1 Projected CH4 Baseline Emissions from Wastewater: 20102030 (MtCO2e) ...................... III-31 2-2 Projected N2O Baseline Emissions from Human: 20102030 (MtCO2e) ............................. III-31 2-3 Abatement Measures for the Wastewater Sector .................................................................. III-34
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2-4 Example Break-Even Prices for Wastewater Abatement Measures in 2030 for the United States............................................................................................................................... III-42
2-5 Abatement Potential by Region at Selected Break-Even Prices in 2030 ............................. III-43
Section IV 1-1 IPCC Emissions Factors for Nitric Acid Production ............................................................... IV-3 1-2 Projected N2O Baseline Emissions from Nitric and Adipic Acid Production: 2010
2030 ................................................................................................................................................ IV-5 1-3 Abatement Measures for Nitric and Adipic Acid Production............................................... IV-6 1-4 Adipic Acid-Producing Countries Share of Baseline Emissions ........................................ IV-12 1-5 Model Nitric Acid Facilities Assumptions ............................................................................. IV-13 1-6 Example Break-Even Prices for N2O Abatement Measures ................................................. IV-13 1-7 Abatement Potential by Region at Selected Break-Even Prices in 2030 ............................. IV-14 2-1 Projected Baseline Emissions from Refrigeration and AC: 2010 to 2030 (MtCO2e) .......... IV-23 2-2 Refrigeration and AC Abatement Options............................................................................. IV-24 2-3 Engineering Cost Data on a Facility Basis .............................................................................. IV-34 2-4 Technical Effectiveness Summary ........................................................................................... IV-36 2-5 Example Break-Even Prices for Abatement Measures in Refrigeration and AC .............. IV-39 2-6 Abatement Potential by Country/Region at Selected Break-Even Prices in 2030
(MtCO2e) ..................................................................................................................................... IV-41 3-1 Projected Baseline Emissions from Solvent Use: 20102030 (MtCO2e) .............................. IV-52 3-2 Solvent Use Abatement Options.............................................................................................. IV-52 3-3 Engineering Cost Data on a Facility Basis .............................................................................. IV-55 3-4 Technical Effectiveness Summary ........................................................................................... IV-56 3-5 Example Break-Even Prices for Abatement Measures in Solvent Use ............................... IV-57 3-6 Abatement Potential by Country/Region at Selected Break-Even Prices in 2030
(MtCO2e) ..................................................................................................................................... IV-57 4-1 Projected Baseline Emissions from Foams Manufacturing: 20102030 (MtCO2e) ............ IV-65 4-2 Foams Manufacturing Abatement Options ........................................................................... IV-65 4-3 Engineering Cost Data on a Facility Basis .............................................................................. IV-71 4-4 Technical Effectiveness Summary ........................................................................................... IV-73 4-5 Example Break-Even Prices for Abatement Measures in Foams Manufacturing ............. IV-74 4-6 Abatement Potential by Country/Region at Selected Break-Even Prices in 2030
(MtCO2e) ..................................................................................................................................... IV-75 5-1 Projected Baseline Emissions from Aerosol Product Use: 2010-2030 (MtCO2e)................ IV-82 5-2 Aerosol Product Use Abatement Options .............................................................................. IV-83 5-3 Engineering Cost Data on a Facility Basis .............................................................................. IV-85 5-4 Technical Effectiveness Summary ........................................................................................... IV-86 5-5 Example Break-Even Prices for Abatement Measures in Aerosol Product Use................ IV-86 5-6 Abatement Potential by Country/Region at Selected Break-Even Prices in 2030
(MtCO2e) ..................................................................................................................................... IV-87 6-1 Projected Baseline Emissions from Fire Protection: 2010 to 2030 (MtCO2e) ...................... IV-94 6-2 Fire Protection Abatement Options......................................................................................... IV-95 6-3 Engineering Cost Data on a Facility Basis .............................................................................. IV-98 6-4 Technical Effectiveness Summary ........................................................................................... IV-98 6-5 Example Break-Even Prices for Abatement Measures in Fire Protection .......................... IV-99
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6-6 Abatement Potential by Country/Region at Selected Break-Even Prices in 2030
(MtCO2e) ................................................................................................................................... IV-100
7-1 Projected Baseline Emissions from Primary Aluminum Production: 20102030
(MtCO2e) ................................................................................................................................... IV-108
7-2 Primary Aluminum Production Abatement Options ......................................................... IV-109 7-3 Engineering Cost Data on a Facility Basis ............................................................................ IV-111 7-4 Description of Primary Aluminum Production Facilities .................................................. IV-112 7-5 Technical Effectiveness Summary ......................................................................................... IV-112 7-6 Example Break-Even Prices for Abatement Measures in Primary Aluminum
Production ................................................................................................................................ IV-113 7-7 Abatement Potential by Country/Region at Selected Break-Even Prices in 2030
(MtCO2e) ................................................................................................................................... IV-113 8-1 Projected Baseline Emissions from HCFC-22 Production: 20102030 (MtCO2e) ............ IV-120 8-2 Distribution of HCF-23 Emissions by Location and Facility Type: 20102030................ IV-121 8-3 HCFC-22 Production Abatement Options ........................................................................... IV-122 8-4 Engineering Cost Data on a Facility Basis ............................................................................ IV-122 8-5 Technical Effectiveness Summary ......................................................................................... IV-125 8-6 Example Break-Even Prices for Abatement Measures in HCFC-22 Production ............. IV-125 8-7 Abatement Potential by Country/Region at Selected Break-Even Prices in 2030
(MtCO2e) .................................................................................................................................. IV-126 9-1 Projected Baseline Emissions from Semiconductor Manufacturing: 2010-2030
(MtCO2e) ................................................................................................................................... IV-133 9-2 Semiconductor Manufacturing Abatement Options .......................................................... IV-134 9-3 Engineering Cost Data on a Facility Basis ............................................................................ IV-135 9-4 Annual Cost per Tool for Thermal Abatement Systems .................................................... IV-136 9-5 Capital Costs per CVD Chamber for Making a Facility NF3 Ready ................................. IV-138 9-6 Percentage of Annual Emissions by Process and Fab Type ............................................... IV-141 9-7 Technical Effectiveness Summary for New Fabs (Constant Over Time) ......................... IV-141 9-8 Technical Effectiveness Summary for Old Fabs (in 2020) .................................................. IV-141 9-9 Example Break-Even Prices for Abatement Measures in Semiconductor
Manufacturing.......................................................................................................................... IV-142 9-10 Abatement Potential by Country/Region at Selected Break-Even Prices in 2030
(MtCO2e) ................................................................................................................................... IV-143 10-1 Projected Baseline Emissions from Electric Power Systems: 20102030 (MtCO2e)........ IV-152 10-2 EPS Abatement Options ......................................................................................................... IV-153 10-3 Engineering Cost Data on a Facility Basis ............................................................................ IV-154 10-4 EPSs System Country Mapping ............................................................................................. IV-159 10-5 Technical Effectiveness Summary .....................................