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Spotlight on Artificial Intelligence
14th September 2017
Global Mobile Radar – Webinar Series
The Radar approach to strategic foresight
Spotlight on Artificial Intelligence
Q&A
Next events
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The Radar approach to strategic foresight
Spotlight on Artificial Intelligence
Q&A
Next events
Spotlight on Artificial IntelligenceContent
AI as reality, not myth
AI is a technology, not a product
1
2The ecosystem is moving to an AI first strategy3AI will drive the next wave of ecosystem disruption4Economic and social impact could be significant5
AI as reality, not myth
Artificial IntelligencePoll question 1
How is your
organisation using
AI today?
(Multiple answers)
1
2
Enhancement of current products and services
Launch of new AI-driven products and services
3 Automation of business processes
4 Still in strategy or planning phase
5 No current plans to use AI
28%
28%
30%
45%
17%
The next era, the next 10 years, is about AI
ED CHANGED
“Gone is the era of PC, and
soon will we say goodbye to
the era of mobile internet –
we believe that coming is
the era of AI
”Robin Li, CEO, Baidu
There has been a vast increase in AI M&A since 2014…
2014 2015 2016 201720132012
Sources: CB Insights, GSMA
11Sources: GSMA, CB Insights, Google
Patents & Projects in AI - GAFAM
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Microsoft
Amazon
Apple
Investments in AI – Corporates, Governments
Corporates
Governments
$865m$1,200m NA $325m $20m
New research centres
New AI funds since 2016
Pa
ten
t La
g…coupled with heavy investment in corporate and government AI
Source: CB Insights
0
50
100
150
200
250
$0
$500
$1,000
$1,500
$2,000
$2,500
2012Q1
2012Q2
2012Q3
2012Q4
2013Q1
2013Q2
2013Q3
2013Q4
2014Q1
2014Q2
2014Q3
2014Q4
2015Q1
2015Q2
2015Q3
2015Q4
2016Q1
2016Q2
2016Q3
2016Q4
Funding Deals
Venture Capital investment in AI ($m)
Growth – 4.6x increase in AI
deals over the last 5 years
VC maturing – 52% of Q1
deals at series C later
Venture Capital is also highly bullish on AI
13
Turing
Ratio Club
Asimov
I, Robot
Minsky
The top down
approach
HAL 9000
1st AI
winter
Bottom-up
revival
IBM Watson
@ Jeopardy!
IBM Deep Blue
vs Kasparov
AlphaGo
Towards
the AI Era
1943 1956 19681950 1973 1981 1997 20162011
However this isn’t our first rodeo – 60 years of AI
Accelerators
Drivers Machine Learning
1
Cheap Compute
2
Growth in Big Data
3
Low barriers to
innovation
Smartphones Early collaboration PlatformsTech giants
AI alliance
Three core advancements are driving the AI era
Advances in Machine Learning critical to resurgence in AI confidence
Microservices and REST APIs
enabling algorithm re-use
Open Platforms Open ML Libraries ML Automation
AutoML to enable automated
neural network production
1
Boom in Machine Learning research over past year
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
Exponential growth in transistor count
1974 2017
Source: Wikipedia, Company announcements, MIT ImageNet Large Scale Visual Recognition Challenge
2
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Entries Using GPUs Error Rate
Mill
ion
s
ImageNet competition error rates
Humans = 5.1%
Mill
ions
Moore’s Law is coming to an end, GPUs are powering the AI resurgence
17
Annual data traffic equals 44ZB by 2020 – 44 x growth in data volumes from 2010 to 2020
Source: Cisco
2015 2020 2015 2020 2015 2020
2015 2020 2015 2020 2015 2020
40% 52% 2.2 3.4 10GB 25GB
89% 93% 7.1 12.2 69GB 159GB
Internet users: % of pop Devices per Capita Ave. traffic per cap/monthGlobal
North America
3
Exponential data growth: in AI data is learning
AI is a technology, not a product
Source: Accenture, GSMA
Computer Vision
Audio Processing
Machine Learning
Neural Networks
Natural Language Processing
Knowledge Representation
Sense
Comprehend
Act
Causal Reasoning
AI Technologies
AI
The new rules of the game
Set goals, not rules
Learned, not
programmed
Multiple data sources,
not structured
Self-improving, not
taught
AI is a cluster of technologies that together offer
an ‘expression of intelligence’
AI ConsciousnessTechnological singularity
Generalised AI platformsAlgorithm reuse across services
Narrow AIVertical propositions
CO
MP
LE
XIT
Y O
F G
OA
LS
COMPLEXITY OF ENVIRONMENTS
Super-
intelligence
Generalised AI
Narrow AI
Source: GSMA
Today, we are at the beginning of a new era,
but we can only achieve narrow AI
21
Neural Networks - combination of statistical techniques used to learn hierarchies and match patterns
o Pattern recognition
o Association
o Complexity
o Noise tolerance
o Calculation
o Precision
o Logic
Input
Data
Output
Data
Neural Networks & other techniques enable software
to act like the brain…
Categories of problems Machine Learning can solve
Source: GSMA, McKinsey Global Institute Analysis
Predictive analytics
Predictive maintenance
Forecasting
Radical personalization/ recommendation system
Prediction
Real time optimization
Strategic optimization
Prescriptive
Process unstructured data
Classification Discovery
1
2
3
4
5
6
7 8 New ideas
Discovery9
…being highly effective when applied to structured
problem-solving tasks
Personalization of
financial products
Fraud management
Personalized advertising
Automated comms
Targeting
Optimized pricing
Real time scheduling
Predictive pricing
Automated diagnosis
Personalized outcomes
Optimized clinical trials
Optimized pricing
Discover new trends
Optimize merchandising
Autonomous cars
Mapping
LogisticsArtificial
Intelligence
Source: GSMA, McKinsey
300+ high impact use cases identified in recent study
Consequently, we are starting to see narrow AI
demonstrated across many sectors
The ecosystem is moving
to an AI first strategy
Source: GSMA
Broadest AI strategy AI to drive user engagement
Positioned as trusted AI partner
Democratizing AI, less intrusive
Disrupting devices through AI cloud
Integrating AI seamlessly into products
Leveraging huge user reach
Capitalizing on early investment
Major platform players are making large strides in AI…
Privacy Centric
Data Centric
End-to-end private systemStrategies
AI in the device, cloud,
at the edge or on request
Trust or data
as point of differentiationRationale
Data = learning in AI
So, can privacy centric AI
approaches succeed?
Caveat
AI on the device
AI in the cloud, user control over requests
AI in the services
AI in the services
AI in the cloud
AI in the cloud, less user control
AI in the cloud, Alexa everywhere
…with differences in strategic approach, especially to data / privacy
3
Applications
Solving specific problems
VERTICAL SOLUTIONS
1
HORIZONTAL PLATFORM
Asset
Optimising operations,
enabling new solutions
Intelligent Cloud
2
Automating processes,
customer centricity,
innovation
Seamless computing,
a new control point
4
User Interfaces
Commercially, AI is being offered on four dimensions
Source: CB Insights
1000s of funded (vertical) AI start-ups in ecosystem
There is an ecosystem of 1,000s of AI start-ups
Artificial IntelligencePoll question 2
Who do you think
will create the
biggest impact with
AI?
(Select one)
1
2
Amazon
3 Facebook
4 Baidu
5 Other (i.e. Alibaba, Tencent)
61%
17%
13%
3%
6%
AI will drive the next wave of
ecosystem disruption
1 2 3 4
DevicesUser Interfaces Chips Applications
AI is stimulating change and disruption across the
digital ecosystem
Information
Digital Services
Personal Assistant Smarter Devices
Communications
Expert Advice
1New user interfaces could become a control point
across the digital ecosystem…
Siri Cortana M Google
Assistant
Echo Tap/
Dot, Show,
Look
Aldebaran
Rob
Tapia
2011 2014 2015 2016 2017
Alexa
Echo
BixbyAlicloud
ET
1
• Alexa leading – Smart Speakers (70%), Mobile Digital Assistants (37%)
• Early cooperation – Cortana & Alexa partnership
• High growth expected – 1.8 B digital assistants 2021
Source: GSMA
…which has prompted a frenetic race
to build AI UIs
Post-
Smartphone
Centric
Smartphone
Centric
Privacy Centric
Data Centric
Launched
Watson
Software Centric
2
Coming
Siri +
iPhone
Siri +
iPad, Mac
Pixel +
AssistantSearch
FB, M,
MessengerFB Phone
Fire Phone
Store
CortanaWindows
Phone
Siri +
HomePod
HomeDaydream
Oculus
“Alexa
everywhere”
API
Echo, Show,
Fire TV
Kindle
Cortana + Speakers
(e.g. Harman Kardon)
Dead
Source: GSMA
Major platform players are betting on development of the
post-smartphone era
3
Source: GSMA
GPU TPU2.0VCA 2 Neural EngineTrueNorth Mate 10To be launchedNPU SDK
Aggressive players are entering the GPU market, including
Google and Apple
IPU To be launched Dynamic
4
Source: GSMA
AI is working its way deeper into software and
transforming the software market
AI is the horizontal enabling layer for applications
Artificial IntelligencePoll question 3
In what part of the
digital value chain
will AI have the
biggest impact?
(Multiple answers)
1
2
User interfaces and OS
Devices
3 Chipsets
4 Applications and software
5 Other
46%
23%
7%
68%
5%
Economic and social impact
could be significant
Baseline GDP growth vs AI steady state (2035)
Source: Accenture, Frontier Economics
Baseline AI Steady State
UNITED
STATES
FINLAND UNITED
KINGDOM
SWEDEN NETHER-
LANDS
GERMANY AUSTRIA FRANCE JAPAN BELGIUM SPAIN ITALY
2.6
4.6
2.1
4.1
2.5
3.9
1.7
3.6
1.6
3.2
1.4
3.0 3.0
1.4
1.7
2.9
0.8
2.7 2.7
1.6 1.7
2.5
1.0
1.8
The economic impact of AI could be material
Intelligent
Automation
1
Labour and
Capital Augmentation
2
Innovation
Diffusion
3
Speed creation of virtual
workforces and automation
Enhance skills of existing
workforces and physical capital
Drive faster adoption of innovation
across sectors
AI will revolutionise productivity on three axes
Source: GSMA, Accenture, Frontier Economics
ProductivityLabourCapital
Entrepreneurship CreativityAI
New
Growth
Model
Traditional
Growth
Model
AI is a new factor of production in the 4th Industrial Revolution…
Impact of digital? Income inequality in the US
Source: Piketty, World Income Database. Pre-tax income, expressed in constant US$ 2015
$0
$20,000
$40,000
$60,000
$80,000
$100,000
$120,000
$140,000
$160,000
$180,000
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
Bottom 50% Top 10%
$67,453
$7,473
$151,196
$6,513k
2014
AI drivers for changes in wealth capture
People
Companies
Countries
Automation
Network effects,
winner takes all
AI arms race
across nations
…and could exacerbate wealth inequality across people,
companies and countries
How will AI
affect you?
What are you going
to do about it?
AI is anticipated to have an enormous impact on society, companies and people:
1
2
Homework!
Conclusions
We are entering the AI era
AI is a cluster of intelligent technologies. Today we can only achieve narrow AI
Big tech platforms are leading the race on AI ; strategies differ on their
approach to data privacy & data ecosystems
AI is driving the next and deepest wave of disruption across the ecosystem
AI will have a profound impact on society. What is your personal strategy?!
1
2
3
4
5
Get in touch if you would like to join or get
involved with the AI community
Moving into the Artificial Intelligence eraA community to accelerate the adoption of AI in the mobile industry
working with the ecosystem and operators
We are launching the ‘Moving into the Artificial Intelligence era’
community
The Radar approach to strategic foresight
Spotlight on Artificial Intelligence
Q&A
Next events
The Radar approach to strategic foresight
Spotlight on Artificial Intelligence
Q&A
Next events
Global Mobile RadarNext events
Q4 2017:
The next Radar report
October 2017:
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Thanks for your participationContacts
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Moving into the AI era