Global Monthly February 2019

Source: CME Group, World Bank. Notes: "0" indicates no changes relative to the current policy rate range of 2.25-2.50 percent. Last observation is February 21, 2019.

Market-derived probability of Federal Reserve policy rate changes by end of 2019

Overview

• Global activity decelerated at the end of 2018 and incoming data point to continued weakness in 2019Q1.

• Following dovish signals from major central banks, financial conditions have eased in recent months, with global equity valuations rising, bond yields declining, and capital flows returning to many emerging markets and developing economies.

• Oil prices have been rising since the beginning of the year, primarily reflecting planned production cuts by OPEC members.

Chart of the Month

• Markets expect that the U.S. Federal Reserve will not increase its policy rate in 2019, in contrast with expectations as recently as November when additional hikes were envisioned.

• The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield has declined from a recent high of 3.2 percent in November to 2.7 percent.

• Other central banks—including the European Central Bank, the Bank of England, the Reserve Bank of India, and the People’s Bank of China—have also recently signaled a more accommodative stance.

Special Focus: Poverty Impact of Food Price Shocks and Policies

• Low-income countries are susceptible to sharp increases in food prices, which raise poverty, reduce nutrition, and curtail the consumption of essential services such as education and health care.

• Countries often use policy interventions to dampen the domestic impact of international food price spikes; however, the combined intervention of many countries may actually raise international prices.

8e Global Monthly is a publication of the Prospects Group. 8is edition was prepared by Patrick Kirby and Collette Wheeler, based on contributions from Eung Ju Kim, Csilla Lakatos, Claudia Marchini, Peter Nagle, Julia Roseman, Rudi Steinbach, Temel Taskin, Ekaterine Vashakmadze, Dana Vorisek, and Sandy Ye. 8is Global Monthly re@ects data available up to February 21. For more information, visit: www.worldbank.org/en/research/brief/economic-monitoring.

Table of Contents

Monthly Highlights ........................................... 2

Special Focus .................................................... 6

Recent Prospects Group Publications ................... 8

Recent World Bank Working Papers.................... 8

Recent World Bank Reports ............................... 8

Table A: Major Data Releases ............................ 8

Table B: Activity and Inflation........................... 9

Table C: Trade and Finance .............................. 9

Table D: Financial Markets ............................ 10

Table E: Commodity Prices .............................. 10

2

February 2019

Global economy: continued deceleration. 8e global economy

grew by an estimated 2.2 percent in 18Q3 (q/q saar), down

signiEcantly from 3.2 percent in the previous quarter. 8e

slowdown re@ected contractions in both the Euro Area and Japan,

as well as in emerging market and developing economies

(EMDEs) that experienced substantial Enancial market pressure,

such as Argentina and Turkey. Incoming data indicate that global

growth may have softened further in 18Q4, with goods trade

growth stagnating and industrial production growth declining to a

26-month low of 1.8 percent (y/y) in November. 8e weakness in

global growth seems to have continued in 2019, with the global

manufacturing PMI falling to 50.7 in January, its lowest in more

than two years. Uncertainty remains elevated, likely contributing

to the deceleration in activity (Figure 1.A).

Global goods trade: deterioration. 8e slowdown in global trade

has continued. World trade volume growth contracted by 0.1

percent in November (3m/3m saar), with the Euro Area

experiencing its largest contraction in export and import volumes

since 2009 and 2013, respectively. 8e WTO World Trade

Outlook Indicator was 96.3 in December (a reading below 100

indicates below-trend growth), its lowest value since March 2010.

Recent survey data suggest the recent deterioration in global trade

will likely continue into 2019, with the new export orders index

falling to 49.5 in January, the lowest reading since late 2016

(Figure 1.B). TariJs imposed on about $200 billion worth of U.S.

imports from China are scheduled to increase from 10 to 25

percent after March 1st but are the subject of ongoing

negotiations. 8e U.S. administration has 90 days to decide

whether to impose tariJs on automobiles and parts following the

February 17th delivery of a conEdential Commerce Department

report @agging potential national security implications related to

these imports.

Global �nancing conditions: recent rebound. Despite continuing

concerns about global growth, equity markets have rebounded

after bottoming out in December (Figure 1.C). 8e recovery has

been driven by a perceived dovish tilt of the U.S. Federal Reserve

and the European Central Bank, with the market currently pricing

in no change in policy rates in 2019 for either central bank. 8e

yield on U.S. 10-year treasuries stands at around 2.7 percent, well

below its recent peak of 3.2 percent in November, while the U.S.

dollar has given up about a quarter of the gains it experienced in

2018.

Monthly Highlights

FIGURE 1.B Global goods trade volume growth and new export orders

FIGURE 1.C Global equity markets

Source: CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis, Haver Analytics, J.P. Morgan, PolicyUncertainty.com, World Bank. A.B. PMI stands for Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI). Readings above 50 indicate expansion, readings below indicate contraction. A. The Global Economic Policy uncertainty Index is a current price GDP weighted average of 18 national indices. Last observation is January 2019 for both uncertainty and the Global PMI. B. Last observation is January 2019 for PMI and November 2018 for trade volumes. C. Last observation is February 21, 2019.

FIGURE 1.A Global manufacturing and economic policy uncertainty

3

February 2019

EMDE �nancing conditions and capital �ows: recovery. Bond

and equity funds in EMDEs attracted $7.7 billion in the week

ending February 6th, among the highest weekly in@ows since July

2016, bringing total in@ows to over $30 billion for 2019 (Figure

2.A). Aggregate EMDE sovereign bond spreads, which peaked in

early January, have since shrunk by 60 basis points to 381 basis

points (Figure 2.B). EMDE bond issuance activity was robust in

January, raising about $38 billion, and is likely to remain solid in

February as many borrowers plan to come to the market.

Commodity markets: decline in oil supply. Oil prices have been

rising since the beginning of the year, with Brent crude oil

climbing above $65/bbl in mid-February. 8e increase was driven

by a fall in the global oil supply of more than 2 million barrels per

day, mainly due to planned production cuts by OPEC members

and their non-OPEC partners, with Saudi Arabia contributing the

most to the reduction (Figure 2.C). Prices were further supported

by an announcement by the United States that it would impose

sanctions on Venezuela’s state-oil company, PDVSA. Venezuela

currently produces 1.3 mb/d, just over 1 percent of global supply.

Prices rose for iron ore (10 percent, m/m) and nickel (6.2 percent)

in January following the bursting of the Brumadinho dam in

Brazil, which has led to a suspension of mining activity in the area.

Agricultural prices rose 1.2 percent on the month, with gains in

rice (1.5 percent) and soybeans (0.5 percent).

United States: softening con�dence, rising employment.

Consumer conEdence fell more than 6 points to 120 in January,

following a 10-point drop in December (Figure 3.A). 8e decline

may have been partly due to the partial shutdown of the federal

government from December 22nd to January 25th, which resulted

in interruptions in pay for about 800,000 government workers and

a signiEcant number of federal contractors. 8e shutdown has

delayed the publication of some economic indicators, such as

18Q4 GDP. 8e labor market appeared unaJected (employees on

furlough are considered employed) in January, with continued

strength in employment (up 304,000), labor force participation

(up 0.2 percentage point to 74 percent), and hourly earnings (up

3.2 percent, y/y). However, retail sales posted the worst

contraction since the Enancial crisis, shrinking by 1.2 percent (m/

m) in December. Total CPI in@ation fell from 1.9 to 1.5 percent

(y/y) in January, primarily due to lower energy prices, while core

CPI in@ation dipped slightly to 2.1 percent.

Euro Area: continued weakness, recession in Italy. Growth in the

Euro Area failed to meaningfully rebound in 18Q4, rising 0.8

percent (q/q saar) following 0.6 percent growth in 18Q3. German

FIGURE 2.B EMDE sovereign bond spreads

FIGURE 2.A Capital inflows into EMDEs

FIGURE 2.C Oil supply changes in major oil-exporting economies

Source: Bloomberg, International Energy Agency, J.P. Morgan, World Bank. A. Latest observation is February 13, 2019. B. Latest observation is February 19, 2019.

4

February 2019

activity was essentially @at in 18Q4 after having contracted in Q3,

while Italy entered recession, with activity shrinking by 0.5 percent

and 0.9 percent in the last two quarters (Figure 3.B). Incoming

data do not point to recovery. Industrial production in the Euro

Area has slowed sharply, contracting by 3.9 percent in December

(y/y), its lowest level since 2012. 8e manufacturing PMI dipped

to a 4-year low of 50.5 in January. 8e unemployment rate has

been steady between 7.9 and 8 percent since August, suggesting

that the labor market may be stabilizing after Eve years of

continuous improvement. Headline in@ation fell 0.3 percentage

point to 1.6 percent in December, while core in@ation was

unchanged at 1.1 percent. In contrast, earnings rose 2.5 percent

(y/y) in 18Q3, the fastest pace since 2012.

United Kingdom: high uncertainty about Brexit. 8e United

Kingdom is scheduled to exit the European Union at the end of

March. 8e framework for what is to follow remains absent, as the

draft withdrawal treaty negotiated with European authorities was

rejected by Parliament on January 15. An alternative has yet to be

proposed, despite ongoing negotiations. A no-deal Brexit could

disrupt activity in the short term and might exacerbate Enancial

stability risks in the United Kingdom and abroad. Uncertainty

remains high, likely hampering activity (Figure 3.C).

Japan: tepid growth. Japanese data point to continued modest

growth and low in@ation. Following uneven growth in the Erst

three quarters of last year, the economy expanded by 1.4 percent

(q/q saar) in 18Q4, with private consumption and investment

rebounding from earlier natural disasters. Employment seems to

have stabilized after a decade of improvement, as the

unemployment rate has hovered around 2.4 percent since early

2018. Despite low unemployment, core in@ation remains only

slightly above 0 percent (Figure 4.A).

China: continued slowdown. Growth slowed to 6.1 percent (q/q

saar) in 18Q4, bringing the rate for 2018 as a whole to 6.6

percent. Recent data point to further deceleration in 2019 amid

ongoing rebalancing away from manufacturing and exports and

toward consumption and services. Both the Caixin and oMcial

manufacturing PMIs showed a contraction in manufacturing

activity in January, with readings at 48.3 and 49.5, respectively;

however, the services PMI has remained steady above 53.5 for the

past three months, consistent with a continued expansion in non-

manufacturing activity. Trade growth decelerated over the course

of 2018—nonetheless, annual exports grew 4.7 percent, in part in

anticipation of future trade restrictions, while imports rose 7.2

percent due to strong domestic demand. Stock prices and the

FIGURE 3.B GDP growth in the Euro Area, Germany, and Italy

FIGURE 3.A U.S. consumer confidence and em-ployment

FIGURE 3.C U.K. industrial production growth and economic policy uncertainty

Source: Bundesbank, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Conference Board, Haver Analytics, ISTAT, Office for National Statistics, PolicyUncertainty.com, World Bank. A. Consumer confidence is seasonally adjusted. Employment refers to total employees on nonfarm payrolls. Last observation is January 2019. B. Seasonally and working day adjusted data in 2010 chained euro. Last observation is 2018Q4. C. Last observation is December 2018 for industrial production and January 2019 for policy uncertainty.

5

February 2019

renminbi stabilized, and bond spreads tightened by about 10 basis

points in the Erst two months of 2019, alongside government

stimulus and optimism about U.S.-China trade negotiations.

Major commodity exporters: mixed recovery, moderating

in�ation. 8e recovery in activity is proceeding well in some

commodity exporters and lagging in others. By contrast, there has

been a generalized deceleration in in@ation in EMDEs as oil prices

have fallen (Figure 4.B). Growth in Nigeria accelerated to 2.4

percent (y/y) in the fourth quarter of 2018, bolstered by expansion

in the non-oil sector. In Saudi Arabia, growth was 4 percent (y/y)

in 18Q4, supported by strong activity in the oil sector. Growth in

Indonesia remained steady at 5.2 percent in 2018Q4 (y/y),

continuing a trend of growth registering between 5-5.3 percent

every quarter since 2017Q1. In Russia, 2018 growth came in at 2.3

percent, surprising on the upside due to data revisions, but

incoming data suggest weakening momentum going into 19Q1.

8e recovery in Brazil continues to be weak—industrial

production growth was nearly @at to end the year, while

unemployment remained unchanged at 11.6 percent in December.

In South Africa, mining production contracted on a year-on-year

basis in November, while the manufacturing PMI declined to 49.9

in January as new sales orders slowed.

Commodity-importing EMDEs: deceleration. Growth in

commodity-importing EMDEs slowed to 4.2 percent (q/q saar) in

18Q3 from 5.4 percent the previous quarter. Many countries also

slowed in 18Q4, pointing to a weak hand-oJ into 2019 (Figure

4.C). Manufacturing PMIs have also been declining to begin the

year. Industrial production in Turkey shrank by nearly 10 percent

(y/y) in December, the fourth straight month of year-on-year

contraction. Survey data point to continued weakness in 2019,

with the manufacturing PMI remaining @at and business

conEdence declining in January. In Poland, the economy grew 4.6

percent (y/y) in 18Q4, a notable decline from the pace of 5.7

percent in Q3. Incoming data indicate that momentum will

continue to weaken in 19Q1, as new export orders registered 43.7

in January—its lowest recording since the global recession in

2009—and the manufacturing PMI remained low at 48.2. In

Mexico, growth softened to 1.2 percent in 18Q4 (q/q saar),

weighed down by a contraction in the industrial sector. In India,

the government announced signiEcant spending increases and tax

breaks ahead of upcoming elections while the central bank cut

rates for the Erst time since mid-2017. Revisions to GDP data

suggest that the economy lost momentum in 2018. Growth in the

Philippines has held up well, remaining steady at 6.1 percent (y/y)

in 2018Q4, with continued strong private consumption growth.

FIGURE 4.B EMDE median inflation and nominal oil prices

FIGURE 4.A Inflation and unemployment in Ja-pan

FIGURE 4.C Growth in EMDEs, 2018

Source: Haver Analytics, Japan Ministry of Health, Labour, Japan Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications & Welfare, World Bank. A. CPI corrected from April 14 to March 2015 to exclude effects of VAT hike. Last observation is December 2018. B. Last observation is December for inflation and January 31st for the West Texas Intermediate oil price. C. All data for 18Q4 are q/q saar, except for Poland, which is y/y.

6

February 2019

FIGURE 5.B Share of agriculture in economy

FIGURE 5.A Global food prices

FIGURE 5.C Share of food in total consumption expenditure

Source: Ag-Incentives Database, World Bank. A. Based on annual commodity price indexes, deflated using the World Bank manufactures unit value index. B. Based on a sample of 93 non-LIC EMDEs and 21 LICs. Averages for 2010-16. C. Based on data from the Global Consumption Database reflecting on the share of food in total consumption expenditure of households. Data is based on 63 non-LIC EMDEs and 25 LICs. The base year of the household surveys differs but the data has been converted to a common reference year, 2010.

In August 2011, nominal international food prices hit a record

high. 8is followed shortly after the 2007-08 food price spike,

which pushed an estimated 105 million people into extreme pov-

erty. Although food prices have declined considerably since then,

in real terms, they are still signiEcantly above their lows in 2000

(Figure 5.A). In 2019, agricultural and food prices are expected to

rise only moderately, but the risks of extreme weather, an escala-

tion of trade tensions, or a jump in energy prices could trigger

higher prices.

Macroeconomic channels of transmission. A high share of agri-

culture and food in total output, consumption, employment,

trade, and government revenues heighten countries’ vulnerability

to volatility in international food prices. Low-income countries

(LICs) are particularly susceptible, as agriculture in these coun-

tries accounts for close to one-third of value added and two-thirds

of total employment, nearly three times their shares in EMDEs

(Figure 5.B). Food price increases also result in higher in@ation,

which can signiEcantly aJect household real incomes and reduce

purchasing power. For food-importing countries, high food prices

can also result in terms of trade shocks that lower growth and

reduce policy space.

Microeconomic channels of transmission. A high share of net

food buyers among the poorest segments of society heightens the

adverse eJects of food price spikes on poverty and income distri-

bution. In LICs, most households are net buyers of food, spend-

ing on average close to 60 percent of their income on food—

more than one-third more than in EMDEs (Figure 5.C). On av-

erage, sharp increases in food prices raise poverty, reduce nutri-

tion, and curtail the consumption of essential services such as

education and health care.

Widespread use of insulating policies. Countries often use policy

interventions to dampen the domestic impact of international

food price spikes and lessen the burden on vulnerable population

groups. For example, during the 2007-08 food price spike, close

to three-quarters of EMDEs took policy action to insulate their

domestic prices from the sharp increase in international food

prices. In the event of food price spikes, net food-importing

Special Focus: Poverty Impact of Food Price Shocks and Policies

7

February 2019

FIGURE 6.B Global poverty impact of the 2010-11 food price spike

FIGURE 6.A Increase in world prices, 2010-11

FIGURE 6.C Regional poverty impact of the 2010-11 food price shock

Source: Ag-Incentives Database, World Bank. A. Real terms based on weighted averages. Active policies refer to trade policy interventions such as import tariffs or subsidies, export taxes or subsidies and export bans. The increase in world prices “with active policies” represents the observed increase in the world price of these respective commodities during 2010-11. The increase in world prices “without active policies” is a counterfactual scenario calculated to remove the weighted average of trade policy interventions in each country, where the weights are the share of each country in global supply and demand, and taking into account the responsiveness of production and consumption in these countries. B.C. Based on estimates using the computable general equilibrium model MIRAGRODEP. Assuming increases in the price of maize, rice, and wheat, as represented in panel A “with active policies” and based on a poverty line of $1.90/day purchasing power parity.

countries usually intervene by lowering trade protection (typically

tariJs) on food items, while net food-exporting countries impose

export restrictions or bans.

Impact of policy interventions on global prices. To the extent

that policy interventions reduce the transmission of international

price spikes to domestic markets, they may appear to be successful

for individual countries. However, the combined intervention of

many countries raises international prices. Only countries that

insulate themselves to an above-average degree can reduce price

volatility in their domestic markets. Insulating policies introduced

during the 2010-11 food price spike may have accounted for 40

percent of the increase in the world price of wheat and one-

quarter of the increase in the world price of maize (Figure 6.A).

Poverty impact of 2010-11 food price spike. Combined with

government policy responses, the 2010-11 food price spike tipped

8.3 million people (almost 1 percent of the world’s poor) into

poverty. On average, the share of extreme poor living on less than

$1.90 per day increased by 0.12 percentage point from 13.7 per-

cent (Figure 6.B).

Heterogeneity in poverty impact. 8e increase in world food

prices, combined with government intervention, was most strong-

ly felt in countries such as India and Uganda, where the extreme

poor tend to be net food-buyers whose real incomes declined. 8e

poverty impact of the 2010-11 food price spike on some regions

such as East Asia and the PaciEc (EAP), and Latin America and

the Caribbean (LAC) is estimated to have been limited: low rates

of poverty combined with the beneEts of the price increase for

countries that are heavy exporters of rice (EAP) or maize (LAC)

oJset some of the losses incurred due to the increase in prices.

Even in Sub-Saharan Africa—the region that accounts for two-

thirds of the global increase in poverty—countries like Ethiopia

and Nigeria implemented insulation policies that reduced poverty

(Figure 6.C).

Alternative policy responses. Targeted safety net interventions

such as cash transfers, food and in-kind transfers etc. can mitigate

the negative impact of food price shocks while reducing the econ-

omy-wide distortionary impacts of trade policies. Additional

measures such as crop and weather insurance, warehouse receipt

systems, commodity exchanges and futures markets could also be

used as risk management instruments.

8

February 2019

Recent Prospects Group Publications Global Economic Prospects - January 2019: Darkening Skies

Inflation in Emerging and Developing Economies: Evolution, Drivers and Policies

Commodity Markets Outlook - October 2018: The Changing of the Guard: Shifts in Commodity Demand

Recent World Bank Working Papers Inflation: Concepts, Evolution, and Correlates

Poverty Impact of Food Price Shocks and Policies

A Joint Foreign Currency Risk Management Approach for Sovereign Assets and Liabilities

When the Cycle Becomes the Trend: The Emerging Market Experience with Fiscal Policy during the Last Commodity Super Cycle

Interest Rate Pass-Through: A Meta-Analysis of the Literature

Policy Implications of Non-linear Effects of Tax Changes on Output

Investing in Human Capital: What Can We Learn from the World Bank's Portfolio Data?

Recent World Bank Reports Fiscal Policies for Development and Climate Action

Doing Business 2019: Training for Reform

World Development Report 2019: The Changing Nature of Work

Atlas of Sustainable Development Goals 2018

Fair Progress? Economic Mobility Across Generations Around the World

The Changing Wealth of Nations 2018: Building a Sustainable Future

TABLE A: Major Data Releases

(Percent change, y/y)

(Percent change y/y)

Recent releases: January 20, 2018 - February 19, 2019 Upcoming releases: February 20, 2019 - March 19, 2019

Country Date Indicator Period Actual Forecast Previous Country Date Indicator Period Previous

China 1/20/19 GDP Q4 6.4 % 6.4 % 6.5 % South Africa 2/20/19 CPI JAN 4.5 %

South Korea 1/21/19 GDP Q4 3.1 % 2.2 % 2.0 % Germany 2/21/19 CPI JAN 1.7 %

South Africa 1/23/19 CPI DEC 4.5 % 5.2 % Japan 2/21/19 CPI JAN 0.3 %

France 1/30/19 GDP Q4 0.9% 1.3% Euro Area 2/22/19 CPI JAN 1.6 %

Japan 1/30/19 IP DEC -1.9 % 1.5 % Canada 2/27/19 CPI JAN 2.0 %

Mexico 1/30/19 GDP Q4 1.8% 2.5 % South Korea 2/27/19 IP JAN 1.6 %

Italy 1/31/19 GDP Q4 0.1 % 0.6% Brazil 2/28/19 GDP Q4 1.3 %

Brazil 2/1/19 IP DEC -3.6 % -1.0% France 2/28/19 GDP Q4 0.9%

Turkey 2/4/19 CPI JAN 20.4% 20.3% India 2/28/19 GDP Q4 7.1 %

Indonesia 2/5/19 GDP Q4 5.2% 5.2% Indonesia 3/1/19 CPI FEB 2.8 %

Germany 2/7/19 IP DEC -3.9% -2.7% -4.0% Turkey 3/4/19 CPI FEB 20.4%

United Kingdom 2/11/19 GDP Q4 1.3% 1.6% South Korea 3/4/19 GDP Q1 3.1%

India 2/12/19 IP DEC 2.4% 0.3% Italy 3/5/19 GDP Q4 0.1%

United States 2/13/19 CPI JAN 1.5% 1.9 % Australia 3/5/19 GDP Q4 2.8 %

Japan 2/13/19 GDP Q4 0.0% 0.1% South Africa 3/6/19 GDP Q4 1.1 %

China 2/14/19 CPI JAN 1.7 % 1.9 % France 3/8/19 IP JAN -1.4 %

Germany 2/14/19 GDP Q4 0.6 % 0.8 % 1.1 % Turkey 3/11/19 GDP Q4 1.6%

Euro Area 2/14/19 GDP Q4 1.2 % 1.7% India 3/12/19 IP JAN 2.4 %

Turkey 2/14/19 IP DEC -9.8 % -6.6% China 3/13/19 IP JAN 5.7 %

United States 2/15/19 IP JAN 3.8% 4.1% Mexico 3/13/19 IP JAN -2.5 %

Thailand 2/18/19 GDP Q4 3.7% 3.2% United States 3/15/19 CPI FEB 1.5%

9

February 2019

TABLE B: Activity and Inflation (Percent change y/y, except quarterly data on industrial production, which are percent change q/q, annualized)

Sources: Haver Analytics, IMF International Financial Statistics, World Bank. 1 Industrial production is total production (may exclude construction). When data are unavailable, "industrial production, manufacturing" is used as a proxy. 2 Median inflation rate for each grouping.

TABLE C: Trade and Finance

Sources: Haver Analytics, IMF International Financial Statistics, World Bank. 1Total reserves excluding gold are used as proxies when total reserves data are unavailable.

2018

2017 2018 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Industrial production, sa 1 World 3.9 3.6 3.8 2.8 2.1 1.8 4.5 4.6 4.2 4.4 3.9 3.6 3.8 3.5 3.4 3.8 2.3 1.9

Advanced economies 2.5 2.2 0.0 3.0 1.0 1.0 2.5 2.9 3.1 2.5 2.5 2.4 2.1 2.4 2.2 2.5 0.9 0.3

Emerging market and developing economies 5.2 5.1 7.7 2.6 3.3 2.6 6.5 6.4 5.3 6.3 5.3 4.7 5.5 4.6 4.5 5.0 3.7 3.4

Commodity-exporting EMDEs 2.5 2.6 5.9 -1.7 4.1 1.1 3.8 3.5 3.2 5.0 1.6 0.5 2.9 2.2 1.4 3.4 2.0 1.5

Other EMDEs 6.0 5.8 8.2 3.8 3.1 3.0 7.3 7.2 5.8 6.6 6.3 5.8 6.2 5.3 5.3 5.5 4.2 3.8

East Asia and Pacific 6.1 6.0 10.1 4.1 3.0 5.4 7.2 7.0 5.7 7.0 6.6 5.0 5.9 5.7 5.3 6.1 5.4 5.4

East Asia excl. China 3.5 4.6 17.2 -5.2 5.4 4.8 7.4 5.9 3.8 7.2 5.6 -1.2 5.0 3.0 2.4 7.2 5.1 3.5

Europe and Central Asia 6.0 4.6 6.0 2.7 2.2 -4.0 7.5 7.6 5.8 6.1 5.6 4.7 6.0 3.9 3.6 3.2 1.8 0.1

Latin America and Caribbean 0.9 1.0 2.5 -2.3 0.8 -4.8 1.6 2.1 2.9 4.5 -1.0 2.2 1.6 1.2 0.3 0.4 -0.7 -2.6

Middle East and North Africa - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

South Asia 4.6 5.7 5.5 -2.1 9.6 4.5 8.1 7.2 5.5 5.3 4.5 6.2 7.8 4.3 6.3 8.6 1.4 3.1

Sub-Saharan Africa 0.1 1.3 -8.6 1.0 9.5 5.7 1.4 0.7 0.9 -1.6 1.3 1.8 2.6 1.6 2.1 2.8 1.5 0.8

Inflation, sa 2

World 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.5 2.2 2.1 2.3 2.4 2.3 2.3 2.4 2.4 2.5 2.3 2.5 2.3 2.0

Advanced economies 1.4 1.7 1.3 1.8 2.1 2.0 1.4 1.2 1.3 1.5 1.8 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.2 2.2 2.0 1.7

Emerging market and developing economies 3.1 2.9 2.9 2.9 3.0 2.7 2.9 2.9 2.7 2.7 2.8 3.0 3.0 3.0 2.9 3.3 2.9 2.2

Commodity-exporting EMDEs 3.3 2.8 2.9 2.8 3.0 2.5 2.9 2.9 2.7 2.5 2.8 2.5 2.6 3.0 2.9 2.7 2.7 2.2

Other EMDEs 2.9 3.1 3.1 3.0 3.0 3.3 2.8 3.2 2.8 2.8 2.9 3.1 3.1 3.2 3.3 3.7 3.1 2.4

East Asia and Pacific 2.3 3.2 2.5 3.5 3.6 3.2 2.6 2.7 2.6 2.8 3.2 3.1 3.2 3.2 3.0 3.1 2.1 1.8

Europe and Central Asia 2.4 2.6 2.7 2.2 2.8 2.0 2.5 2.7 2.5 2.3 2.1 2.3 2.4 3.0 2.4 2.2 1.9 1.8

Latin America and Caribbean 2.6 2.3 2.8 2.4 2.6 2.8 2.7 2.8 2.7 2.7 2.1 2.5 2.6 2.4 2.3 3.4 2.8 2.3

Middle East and North Africa 1.6 2.5 2.8 2.7 2.2 1.8 2.9 2.9 2.6 2.5 2.8 2.8 2.7 2.3 2.1 2.0 2.1 2.1

South Asia 3.8 3.9 3.5 4.4 4.1 4.1 4.4 3.6 3.7 4.1 4.1 4.5 4.4 4.0 3.9 4.7 3.8 5.4

Sub-Saharan Africa 5.5 3.9 3.5 3.5 3.4 3.9 4.3 3.4 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.1 3.5 3.7 3.9 4.0 3.5

2018

2018

2017 2018 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Exports, nominal, US$, sa

World 10.4 9.4 25.6 -4.4 -1.7 -3.3 17.4 17.4 9.9 16.8 10.8 10.1 11.9 6.8 4.5 10.8 2.4 -2.7

Advanced economies 9.7 8.2 23.1 -4.9 -4.6 -3.3 18.2 13.0 11.9 17.3 9.5 9.4 10.2 5.1 1.4 9.0 0.8 -3.6

Emerging market and developing economies 11.8 11.6 30.1 -3.4 3.9 -3.2 15.9 25.6 6.4 15.9 13.1 11.4 15.1 10.2 10.4 14.0 5.3 -0.8

Commodity-exporting EMDEs 17.5 - 29.9 -0.6 10.5 - 20.4 15.3 12.9 23.7 15.5 16.1 23.0 13.6 9.5 18.8 9.3 -

Other EMDEs 9.5 10.3 30.2 -4.7 1.4 -5.7 14.1 30.0 3.8 12.9 12.1 9.4 11.9 8.8 10.8 12.3 3.8 -2.5

East Asia and Pacific 10.0 10.3 33.2 -4.5 2.0 -9.5 13.9 33.0 1.2 12.2 11.7 10.4 12.4 8.9 11.0 13.6 3.0 -3.7

Europe and Central Asia 16.6 16.6 37.1 -0.8 2.7 5.9 26.6 20.9 14.9 27.6 19.8 13.9 23.8 13.6 11.0 16.6 11.1 3.5

Latin America and Caribbean 12.0 9.3 21.2 -6.1 9.4 6.9 12.0 11.9 10.6 13.6 7.3 6.5 12.2 9.5 6.1 10.5 8.0 3.8

Middle East and North Africa - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

South Asia 5.6 11.8 6.4 5.2 22.4 29.4 7.3 10.1 5.4 9.2 20.0 4.6 14.0 3.3 22.9 18.8 12.7 14.8

Sub-Saharan Africa 14.8 - 24.7 -5.3 14.9 - 11.8 15.7 10.3 18.0 13.9 16.0 16.9 12.7 9.7 - - -

Imports, nominal, US$, sa

World 12.1 11.6 18.0 3.6 1.2 1.5 16.4 21.5 9.0 25.1 4.4 10.2 12.7 2.4 24.9 13.9 2.9 1.3

Advanced economies 8.9 9.6 22.7 -3.4 -3.5 1.2 18.7 15.3 11.9 18.6 10.0 9.2 12.0 7.0 3.9 11.0 2.4 -1.9

Emerging market and developing economies 13.8 12.6 15.6 7.6 3.7 0.9 15.2 24.8 7.4 28.7 1.9 10.7 13.1 -0.1 37.7 15.4 3.2 2.3

Commodity-exporting EMDEs 13.1 - 8.2 13.1 3.7 - 10.5 29.4 6.0 32.1 -1.9 10.4 11.7 -3.8 48.3 15.7 3.2 -

Other EMDEs 16.5 12.5 43.7 -8.8 3.8 -14.5 32.3 11.1 12.2 17.9 17.0 11.8 18.1 12.2 8.8 14.4 3.0 -5.4

East Asia and Pacific 17.6 14.7 57.8 -11.9 11.3 -18.5 37.5 9.2 12.0 21.9 20.8 11.7 21.3 16.7 11.9 19.3 4.7 -5.5

Europe and Central Asia 18.7 8.0 35.1 -19.4 -18.3 0.5 30.0 22.1 17.7 19.5 10.0 7.7 6.6 -0.9 -1.6 1.7 -3.0 -6.7

Latin America and Caribbean 6.0 12.2 23.5 6.7 10.1 -0.5 13.6 14.3 4.3 21.7 12.7 9.8 23.3 13.6 6.3 16.1 11.7 1.1

Middle East and North Africa - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

South Asia 22.7 12.5 21.4 11.3 6.7 -16.8 24.8 11.9 7.9 4.9 15.8 20.7 23.6 19.8 10.9 15.5 2.6 -3.2

Sub-Saharan Africa 4.4 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

International reserves, US$1

World 7.2 -0.5 1.4 -1.2 -0.6 0.1 1.4 -0.5 0.5 -0.5 -0.5 -0.2 0.0 -0.1 -0.5 -0.8 0.5 0.5

Advanced economies 10.0 0.4 1.3 -0.8 0.0 0.0 1.3 -0.5 0.5 -1.0 -0.2 0.4 -0.1 0.1 0.0 -0.7 0.4 0.3

Emerging market and developing economies 5.3 -1.1 1.4 -1.5 -1.1 0.2 1.4 -0.5 0.5 -0.2 -0.7 -0.6 0.0 -0.3 -0.9 -0.9 0.5 0.6

Commodity-exporting EMDEs 3.6 - 2.0 -0.5 -1.0 - 1.3 -0.3 1.1 0.8 -0.4 -0.8 -0.2 0.2 -1.0 -0.3 - -

Other EMDEs 6.1 -2.1 1.1 -2.0 -1.1 0.0 1.5 -0.6 0.3 -0.6 -0.8 -0.6 0.2 -0.5 -0.8 -1.1 0.4 0.7

East Asia and Pacific 5.6 -2.1 0.6 -1.4 -1.0 -0.1 1.1 -0.8 0.4 -0.5 -0.5 -0.3 0.1 -0.2 -0.8 -1.0 0.4 0.5

Europe and Central Asia 10.3 3.9 4.3 -3.3 -0.9 4.0 3.5 0.2 0.6 -0.5 -1.2 -1.6 0.9 -1.1 -0.8 -0.2 1.6 2.6

Latin America and Caribbean 2.2 -1.0 1.6 -1.9 -1.1 0.2 1.3 0.0 0.3 -0.1 -0.3 -1.4 0.3 -0.2 -1.2 -0.1 0.5 -0.2

Middle East and North Africa - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

South Asia 11.8 -4.9 2.5 -3.8 -2.1 -1.4 2.4 -0.2 0.3 -0.2 -2.4 -1.2 -0.7 -0.7 -0.8 -1.9 -0.1 0.6

Sub-Saharan Africa 10.4 - 8.4 1.0 -6.4 - 1.6 0.9 5.7 1.0 2.1 -1.9 -0.2 -3.3 -3.0 -3.1 - -

2018

(Percent change y/y, except quarterly trade data, which are percent change q/q, annualized, and international reserves data, which are percent change over the previous period)

10

February 2019

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TABLE D: Financial Markets (Percent change y/y, except quarterly trade data, which are percent change q/q, annualized, and international reserves data, which are percent change over the previous period)

TABLE E: Commodity Prices

2018 2019 MRV 1

2017 2018 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan

Interest rates and LIBOR (percent)

U.S. Fed Funds Effective 0.97 1.78 1.40 1.67 1.88 2.16 1.38 1.45 1.63 1.63 1.77 1.88 1.88 1.90 2.13 2.13 2.22 2.38 2.38

ECB repo 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

US$ LIBOR 3-months 1.26 2.31 1.93 2.34 2.34 2.63 1.87 2.18 2.35 2.34 2.33 2.34 2.32 2.35 2.46 2.65 2.79 2.78 2.64

EURIBOR 3-months -0.33 -0.32 -0.33 -0.33 -0.32 -0.32 -0.33 -0.33 -0.33 -0.33 -0.32 -0.32 -0.32 -0.32 -0.32 -0.32 -0.31 -0.31 -0.31

US 10-yr Treasury yield 2.33 2.91 2.76 2.92 2.92 3.03 2.86 2.84 2.87 2.97 2.91 2.89 2.89 3.00 3.16 3.12 2.83 2.71 2.65

German Bund, 10 yr 0.37 0.39 0.57 0.42 0.28 0.29 0.67 0.54 0.48 0.46 0.33 0.25 0.26 0.35 0.37 0.32 0.19 0.12 0.00

Spreads (basis points)

JP Morgan Emerging Markets 325 360 309 351 378 402 309 319 322 353 377 366 383 386 377 405 423 402 378

Asia 164 183 157 185 189 202 156 168 171 186 197 193 185 189 190 204 211 199 186

Europe 243 281 221 275 313 316 217 234 246 277 301 291 329 318 299 316 334 319 307

Latin America & Caribbean 429 471 418 455 487 523 420 423 422 459 486 471 493 498 492 528 549 519 502

Middle East 385 439 367 429 464 497 366 374 385 432 472 451 464 478 453 497 541 562 404

Africa 376 407 320 385 440 481 317 337 342 379 436 420 445 455 445 485 515 489 448

Stock Indices (end of period)

Global (MSCI) 508 456 500 505 524 456 517 500 510 509 505 520 524 524 484 491 456 491 500

Advanced Economies ($ Index) 2086 1884 2042 2089 2184 1884 2113 2042 2087 2093 2089 2153 2179 2184 2019 2041 1884 2028 2073

United States (S&P 500) 2668 2507 2590 2718 2923 2507 2711 2590 2648 2729 2718 2816 2902 2923 2712 2760 2507 2702 2786

Europe (S&P Euro 350) 1558 1368 1493 1533 1548 1368 1522 1493 1556 1545 1533 1581 1547 1548 1454 1450 1368 1452 1496

Japan (Nikkei 225) 22530 20019 21203 22305 24021 20019 21794 21203 22488 22095 22305 22554 22788 24021 21920 22351 20019 20773 21303

Emerging Market and Developing Economies (MSCI)

1139 966 1167 1070 1048 966 1202 1167 1164 1121 1070 1087 1055 1048 954 995 966 1050 1037

EM Asia 577 485 589 552 537 485 603 589 587 582 552 553 546 537 476 503 485 521 520

EM Europe 341 292 350 312 313 292 370 350 335 316 312 319 294 313 293 301 292 325 314

EM Europe & Middle East 275 246 280 253 259 246 295 280 271 257 253 263 246 259 247 252 246 270 259

EM Latin America & Caribbean 2811 2566 3008 2477 2577 2566 3095 3008 2988 2561 2477 2702 2466 2577 2684 2600 2566 2948 2853

Exchange Rates (LCU / USD)

Advanced Economies

Euro Area 0.89 0.85 0.81 0.84 0.86 0.88 0.81 0.81 0.81 0.85 0.86 0.86 0.87 0.86 0.87 0.88 0.88 0.88 0.88

Japan 112.11 110.34 107.94 109.16 111.52 112.74 107.96 106.02 107.62 109.72 110.13 111.45 111.03 112.09 112.76 113.40 112.06 108.96 110.45

Emerging and Developing Economies

Brazil 3.19 3.65 3.24 3.61 3.95 3.81 3.25 3.28 3.41 3.64 3.79 3.82 3.93 4.10 3.76 3.80 3.89 3.74 3.70

China 6.76 6.61 6.35 6.38 6.81 6.92 6.32 6.32 6.30 6.37 6.47 6.72 6.85 6.86 6.93 6.94 6.88 6.79 6.77

Egypt 17.85 17.82 17.68 17.80 17.90 17.92 17.67 17.63 17.68 17.83 17.88 17.90 17.88 17.92 17.92 17.93 17.93 17.86 17.54

India 65.11 68.41 64.40 66.99 70.19 72.04 64.44 65.06 65.69 67.49 67.79 68.74 69.62 72.22 73.59 71.83 70.71 70.78 71.23

Russia 58.31 62.84 56.96 62.03 65.64 66.74 56.81 57.15 61.01 62.28 62.81 62.83 66.48 67.60 65.86 66.69 67.66 66.79 66.35

South Africa 13.31 13.25 11.93 12.65 14.09 14.31 11.82 11.84 12.10 12.52 13.33 13.39 14.13 14.75 14.54 14.10 14.31 13.85 14.10

Memo: U.S. nominal effective rate (index)

119.6 118.4 114.1 116.6 120.4 122.5 113.7 113.9 113.9 117.0 118.9 119.6 120.6 120.9 121.7 123.0 122.8 120.9 121.0

Sources: Bloomberg, J.P. Morgan, and World Bank.

1 MRV = most recent value.

2018

2018 2019 MRV 1

2017 2018 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan

Energy 2 68 87 82 89 93 84 81 81 86 92 91 92 90 96 97 82 73 74 74

Non-energy 2 84 85 88 89 83 81 88 88 90 90 88 84 83 81 82 81 81 81 81

Agriculture 2 87 87 89 91 85 83 89 90 92 92 89 86 85 83 83 82 83 84 84

Metals and minerals 2 79 84 88 88 80 79 89 85 87 88 88 81 79 79 81 79 77 77 78

Memo items:

Crude oil, average ($/bbl) 53 68 64 71 73 64 63 64 69 73 72 73 71 75 77 62 54 56 62

Gold ($/toz) 1258 1269 1329 1307 1213 1229 1331 1325 1335 1303 1282 1238 1202 1198 1215 1221 1250 1292 1292

Baltic Dry Index 1152 1346 1171 1256 1602 1356 1130 1149 1126 1289 1352 1649 1710 1447 1545 1201 1322 1068 643

Sources: World Bank, World Bank Commodities Price Data (The Pink Sheet), Bloomberg.

1 MRV = most recent value.

2 Indexes, 2010 = 100.

2018