global outlook of high speed transmissions
TRANSCRIPT
The Global Outlook The Global Outlook of of High Speed High Speed Transmissions Transmissions -- What's in Store?What's in Store?
Fuel Economy Norms and Regional Market Dynamics to Boost Global Fuel Economy Norms and Regional Market Dynamics to Boost Global Volumes to Over 13.0 Million By 2020Volumes to Over 13.0 Million By 2020
Yeswant Abhimanyu,
Senior Research Analyst Senior Research Analyst
Automotive & Transportation
© 2012 Frost & Sullivan. All rights reserved. This document contains highly confidential information and is the sole property of
Frost & Sullivan. No part of it may be circulated, quoted, copied or otherwise reproduced without the written approval of Frost & Sullivan.
17th September 2013
Today’s Presenter
Automotive Research and Consulting Professional with a keen interest in exploring next generation disruptive
Yeswant Abhimanyu
Senior Research AnalystFrost & Sullivan
2
Automotive Research and Consulting Professional with a keen interest in exploring next generation disruptive business models and market roadmaps, and to engage in knowledge sharing with visionary thinkers and thought leaders of the world
Authored studies with core competences in:
• Automotive Powertrain
• Vehicle Fleet & Leasing
• Eco-Innovation, Mega Trends
• Future of Mobility (Mobility Integration, Multi-Modality)
in.linkedin.com/pub/yeswant-abhimanyu/3a/54/b07/
Focus Points — Agenda for Today’s Presentation
• Drivers, Restraints and Trends influencing rise of High Speed Transmissions
• Global High Speed Transmission Snapshot
• Regional High Speed Transmission Snapshot
• OEM Comparative Competitor Positioning
• Conclusions and Final Verdict
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Poll Question
What do you think is the driving force for more number of speeds in a transmissions ?
A. It is a race to showcase technological expertise by OEMs and Suppliers
B. It is a marketing tool to attract consumers
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C. It is a “real” requirement to adhere to future global emissions and fuel economy regulations
D. It is a strategy to differentiate Premium vs. Mass Market segments by OEMs
E. All of the above
Note: Figures used only for representation purposes. Source: Frost & Sullivan analysis.
Top 5 Key Findings
1Global
Globally, high speed transmissions (high speed steppes ATs and DCTs) are expected to account for about 13.0 to 13.5 million vehicles annually in 2020.
2Region
North America and China are expected to be the most attractive high speed transmission markets globally by 2020.
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Note: Images used only for representation purposes. Source: Frost & Sullivan.
3Speed
Globally, the 8-speed ATs are expected to be the most dominant with a share of about 39.0 to 43.0 percent in 2020 from a current 100.0 percent in 2012.
4OEM
Globally, General Motors is expected to lead the market in terms of units shipments by 2020, followed by Toyota and Ford.
5Supplier
A number of OEMs including Hyundai, Daimler, Ford and GM are focusing on in-house high speed transmission manufacturing. This is because it is considered a core competence and a key pillar of the engine and overall powertrain strategy.
Market Engineering MeasurementsGlobally, high speed transmission is expected to have a penetration of about 14.0 – 17.0 million by 2020 within the overall transmission market.
Market Stage
GROWTH
Market Units/Volume
(2012)
Total High Speed Transmission Market: Global, 2012Market Overview
1.4–1.6 M
Market Size for Last Year of Study Period
(2020)
13.0–13.5 M
Market Concentration
(% of market share held by
top 2 stepped high speed AT
suppliers – 2020)
~ 60.0%
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Note: All figures are rounded. The base year is 2012. Source: Frost & Sullivan.Stable IncreasingDecreasing
Market Concentration
~ 77.0%
(% of market share held by
top 2 OEMs – 2012)
Number of Competitors
6
(active market competitors in
2012 - OEMs)
Drivers and Restraints and Top Level Fact Sheet Fuel economy norms and regional emissions regulations amongst key drivers in all markets. Regional market dynamics like AT domination in North America to drive or challenge high speed transmission uptake
Driv
ers
Global engine downsizing and down-speeding
trend.
Global fuel economy standards and emission
norms
High Speed Transmission Market: Key Market Drivers and Restraints, Global, 2012–2020
High speed transmissions for
both FWD and RWD vehicles
High Speed Transmission Market: Unit Shipment
Forecast, Global, 2012 and 2020
57.3
80.7
60.0
80.0
100.0
Un
its (
Millio
n)
7
Denotes long-term impact Source: Frost & Sullivan.
Re
stra
ints
Denotes current impact
Increased cost of high-speed transmissions and customer perception. Competition from
other transmissions.
Design complexity –packaging constraints
and heavier transmissions
GLOBAL
2.0–4.0%
14.0–17.0%
0.0
20.0
40.0
2012 2020
Total Vehicle Volumes High Speed Transmission Volumes
Year
Global Hot Spots—High Speed Transmission Volume SnapshotCompetitive AT market in Japan and push by premium OEMs in Europe amongst key drivers for the respective regions.
0.49
2.51
2012 2020Europe
6.58
0.13
0.71
2012 2020
High Speed Transmission Market: Volume Snapshot, Global, 2012 and 2020
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Note: The volumes are in million and the percentages shown are CAGR. All figures are rounded. The base year is 2012. Source: Frost & Sullivan.
0.48
2012 2020
North America
2012 2020
Japan
0.44
3.39
2012 2020
China
Unit Shipment Forecast by Region and TechnologyNA is expected to account for a share of close to 50.0 percent of the 2020 high speed market globally
High Speed Transmission Market: Unit Shipment Forecast by Region and Technology, Global, 2012 and 2020
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
Un
its
(M
illi
on
)
~1.4–1.6 million
~13.0–13.5 million
37.0–
13.0–15.0%
6.0–8.0%
~3.2–3.5
~6.3–6.8
~2.3–2.6
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Note: All figures are rounded. The base year is 2012. Source: Frost & Sullivan analysis.
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
Europe North America China Japan
Un
its
(M
illi
on
)
8 Speed AT 9 Speed AT 10 Speed AT High Speed DCT
Note: Graph in center represents data for 2020
Region2012
100.0%
2020
37.0–40.0%
39.0–43.0%
~0.67–0.80
~2.3–2.6
High Speed Transmission Market—Unit Shipment Forecast by OEM and Transmission TypeVolume OEMs , Ford and GM, expected to lead the high speed transmission market by 2020.
High Speed Transmission Market: Unit Shipment Forecast by OEM and Transmission Type, Global, 2012 and 2020
1.5
2.0
2.5
Un
its
(M
illi
on
)
10
Note: All figures are rounded. The base year is 2012. Source: Frost & Sullivan analysis.
0.0
0.5
1.0
BMW Daimler Fiat-Chrysler
Ford Geely GM Honda Hyundai Tata Toyota VW
8 Speed AT 9 Speed AT 10 Speed AT High Speed DCT
Note: Graph in center represents data for 2020. The goal post charts are representative of the total market and not only the OEMs shown on this slide. The OEMs shown however account for majority of the total high speed transmission market by 2020.
OEM
Market ParticipantsMarket Participants
High Speed Transmission Market: Competitive Landscape, Global, 2012
Key SuppliersKey SuppliersHigh Speed Transmission —
Focus towards 2020High Speed Transmission —
Focus towards 2020Key Vehicle ModelsKey Vehicle Models
Ford
Fiat-Chrysler
BMW
Daimler
In-house, Getrag
ZF, FPT
ZF
In-house manufacturing
9-speed AT FWD, 10-speed AT RWD.
8-speed AT for RWD and 9-speed AT for FWD vehicles
8-speed AT for RWD and 9-speed AT for FWD vehicles
9-speed AT RWD. Expected high speed DCT in future
Fusion, MKC, F-series, Taurus, Explorer
RAM 1500, 300, Charger, Cher
okee, Guilia
7-series, 5-series, 3-series
S-Class, E-Class, C-Class
Competitive Positioning of Key Industry ParticipantsIn-house manufacturing of high speed transmissions to play a key role as its considered a core competence
Key participants in North America
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General Motors
JLR
In-house, Aisin8-Speed Aisin RWD and in-house AT. 9-speed AT FWD, 10-speed
AT RWD.
CTS, ATS, Sierra, Silverado, Impala, LaCrosse
ZF, Getrag8-speed AT for RWD and 9-speed
AT for FWD vehiclesXF, XJ, Discovery, Evoq
ue, Freelander
Source: Frost & Sullivan.
Volkswagen
Honda
BorgWarner, in-house, ZF, Aisin
ZF and in-house (F&S-2)
8-speed ATs RWD on Audi and Porsche marquee.
9-speed AT FWD10-speed AT FWD (F&S-2)
Cayenne, Panamera, Audi marquee, Touareg
Accord, Odyssey, MDX, Pilot
Hyundai-Kia In-house8- and 10- speed RWD AT8-speed FWD AT (F&S-2)
Equus, Genesis, Mohave
ToyotaToyota Aisin 8-speed FWD and RWD AT
IS-series, Land Cruiser, RX-
series, Camry
North America
Premium OEMs and
marquees –high adoption of high speed transmissions
High speed DCT expected in the future
The Last Word—Three Big Predictions
North America is expected to account for over 6.0 million high speed
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The global market for high speed transmissions is expected to grow to about
13.0–13.5 million by 2020. High speed ATs are expected to account for about
90.0 percent of the high speed transmissions market. The 8-speed AT is
expected to be the most dominant at about 39.0–43.0 percent by 2020.
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Source: Frost & Sullivan analysis.
2transmissions annually by 2020, account for close to 50.0 percent of the global
transmissions market. China is expected to be the 2nd largest market with over
3.0 million units.
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Premium OEMs and marquees are expected to continue to adopt high speed
transmissions. However by 2020, the top 2 market players are expected to be
volume manufacturers.
Contents
Section Slide Numbers
Executive Summary 5
Research Scope, Objectives, Methodology, and Background 22
Definitions and Segmentation 29
Market Overview 34
Mega Trends and Industry Convergence Implications 66
Total High Speed Transmission Market
• External Challenges: Drivers and Restraints—Total Market 69
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• External Challenges: Drivers and Restraints—Total Market 69
• Forecasts and Trends—Total Market 86
High Speed Transmission—Regional Markets
• Forecasts and Trends—Europe 103
• Market Share and Competitive Analysis—Europe 114
• Forecasts and Trends—North America 119
• Market Share and Competitive Analysis—North America 130
• Forecasts and Trends—Asia (China and Japan) 135
• Market Share and Competitive Analysis— Asia (China and Japan) 148
Contents
Section Slide Numbers
Global High Speed Transmission Market—OEM Profiles 156
Supplier Profiles 205
Conclusions and Future Outlook 219
Appendix 225
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For Additional Information
Katja Feick
Corporate Communications Manager
0049 (0) 69 7703343
Yeswant Abhimanyu
Senior Research Analyst
Automotive & Transportation
(0091) 44 6681 4019
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Global Program Manager – Powertrain
Automotive & Transportation
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