Global Outlook

September 2011

Beech Island South Carolina

Industrial Pipes

Federal ReserveThere are significant

downside risks to the economic

outlook, including strains in global financial markets

What the Economy LacksJobs

Confidence

U.S. Economy: Employment

16-19

20-24

25-54

55+

65+

Monetary Base Growth

USA

Japan

Double Dip?External

Save the Euro?

Unit Labor Costs

What to Do?Restructure

Breakup

Breakup Euro?

China Risk

China: Inflation

House Prices for Asian Cities

Gov’t PoliciesPurchase

RestrictionsProperty TaxesHigher Interest

Rates

Double Dip?Internal

Real Estate Dip?

Upside Upside Down Mortgages

Troubled Mortgages

Refinancing Hard To DoBuy Back Bad Loans

Higher FeesSecond Mortgages

Mortgage Originations by Investors

Drag fromGov’ts

Fiscal Drag from Federal, State, Local Gov’ts

Brinkmanship

Deficit UnderstatedInterest Rate

Economic GrowthHealthcare

Federal Debt as % of GDP

Higher Taxes

Tax the Rich?

More Stimulus?Poorly TargetedRicardian Equiv.

Let’s Twist

Operation Twist?

Earnings Forecasts for 2012

ConclusionsLost Decade?Market Share

Asia

DrSohn.com

(not Dr.Sohn.com)