global outlook: two-speed recovery in motion real gdp growth (percent change from a year earlier)...
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Regional Economic OutlookFall 2010
AfghanistanAfghanistan
PakistanPakistan
IranIran
IraqIraq
Saudi ArabiaSaudi Arabia
YemenYemen
OmanOman
United Arab EmiratesUnited Arab Emirates
QatarQatar
BahrainBahrain
KuwaitKuwait
SudanSudan
LibyaLibyaAlgeria
Algeria
MoroccoMorocco
MauritaniaMauritania
LebanonLebanon Syria
Syria
JordanJordan
EgyptEgypt
TunisiaTunisia
DjiboutiDjibouti
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Global outlook: Two-speed recovery in motion
Real GDP Growth(percent change from a year earlier)
2000 02 04
World
Emerging economies
Advanced economies
1006 08
Temporary slow-down2010:H2 — 2011:H1
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A closer look at the two-speed recovery
Real GDP Growth(percent change from a year earlier)
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Rebalancing is needed along two dimensions
Demand from external surplus economies
4
Demand from external deficit economies
Private demand
Publicdemand
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Prospects for World GDP Growth(percent change)
Downside risks remain, but global double-dip unlikely
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Inflationary pressures are forecast to remain subdued
Core Inflation(Twelve-month change in the core CPI)
062002 04 Jul.10
08
For countries with a peg to the USD or euro, this means that higher inflation rates may lead to real appreciation.
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Oil Demand Growth(contributions to y-o-y growth in percent)
Total demand
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Major Food Crops, Nearest Futures Prices (index, Jul. 1, 2010 = 100)
Wheat
Corn
Temporary Wheat Supply Shock, Limited Spillovers
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Net Monthly Flows to Emerging Market Equity Funds
(billions of U.S. dollars)
Sep. 10
Net Monthly Flows to Emerging Market Bond Funds
(billions of U.S. dollars)
9
Capital Flows, Reserves, Appreciation
Sep. 10
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MENAP Oil Exporters
IranIran
IraqIraq
Saudi ArabiaSaudi Arabia
YemenYemen
OmanOman
United Arab EmiratesUnited Arab Emirates
QatarQatar
BahrainBahrain
KuwaitKuwait
SudanSudan
LibyaLibyaAlgeria
Algeria
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Overview — Oil Exporters
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Global demand recovers, boosts activity
Sources: National authorities; and IMF staff estimates.
MENAP Oil Exporters
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…and external balances rebound
Sources: National authorities; and IMF staff estimates.
MENAP Oil Exporters
$257
$75$101 $124$107
$5$23 $31
-$6
-$10
-$7-$7
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…as do fiscal balances
Sources: National authorities; and IMF staff estimates.
MENAP Oil Exporters
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Many countries approaching break-even prices
Sources: National authorities; and IMF staff estimates.
Average oil price in 2010
MENAP Oil Exporters
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Some countries continue to provide stimulus
Sources: National authorities; and IMF staff estimates.
MENAP Oil Exporters
Percent change in total government expenditures in U.S. dollars(From 2008 to 2011)
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Keep an eye on inflation
Source: National authorities.1Algeria, Bahrain, Iraq, Kuwait, Libya, and Oman
MENAP Oil Exporters
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Financial sectors after the crisis (December 2009)
Source: National authorities.1December 2008
MENAP Oil Exporters
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MENAP Oil Exporters
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MENAP Oil Importers
AfghanistanAfghanistan
PakistanPakistan
MoroccoMorocco
MauritaniaMauritania
LebanonLebanon Syria
Syria
JordanJordan
EgyptEgypt
TunisiaTunisia
DjiboutiDjibouti
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Overview — Oil Importers
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Trade recovery is moving ahead
Annual percent change of U.S. dollar value, 3-month moving average
Sources: National authorities; IMF Direction of Trade Statistics; and Haver Analytics.¹ Egypt, Jordan, Lebanon, Morocco, Pakistan, and Tunisia.
Region’s exports are again growing steadily
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
Jun-06 Dec-06 Jun-07 Dec-07 Jun-08 Dec-08 Jun-09 Dec-09 Jun-10
European Union: imports
MENAP oil importers:¹ exports
Emerging and devel. economies: exports
MENAP Oil Importers
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Real GDP picking up across region
Source: National Authorities; and IMF staff estimates.
Annual percentage change
MENAP Oil Importers
2011
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Progress in fiscal consolidation
Source: National Authorities; and IMF staff estimates and projections.
MENAP Oil Importers
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Most can maintain current monetary stance
Sources: Haver Analytics; and national authorities.
Consumer Prices; annual percentage change
MENAP Oil Importers
Aug-10
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Dominique Strauss-Kahn:
“We must not underestimate the daunting prospects we face: a lost generation, disconnected from the labor market, with a progressive loss of skills and motivation.”
More than 18 million jobs needed
MENAP Oil Importers
AFP/ABDELHAK SENNA/Getty Images. Reprinted with permission. (Unemployed workers wait for a job in the Bani Makada quarter of Tangiers, Morocco on March 20, 2004.)
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High unemployment a long-standing issue
Sources: National authorities; IMF, World Economic Outlook; staff estimates; and International Labor Organization.Note: MENA6 refers to Egypt, Jordan, Lebanon, Morocco, Syria, and Tunisia. Youth unemployment estimate for MENA6 excludes Jordan. Data refers to 2008 or latest available year.
MENAP Oil Importers
MENA6
Central and South-Eastern Europe (non-EU) and CIS
Sub-Saharan Africa
Latin America
Developed EconomiesWorld
South-East Asia and the
Pacific
South Asia
East Asia
5
7
9
11
13
15
17
19
21
23
4 6 8 10
Yo
uth
un
emp
loym
ent
(Per
cen
t)
Total unemployment rate (Percent)
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Growth and export gaps: getting bigger
Source: IMF, World Economic Outlook.
Goods exports(in percent of GDP)
MENAP Oil Importers
EM total
EGY
JOR
LBN
MRT
MARPAK
SYR
TUN
Emerging Asia
China
India
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
-5 0 5 10 15
Volume of exports of goods and services per capita(average annual growth rate, 1990–2009)
Rea
l GD
P p
er c
apit
a(a
vera
ge a
nnua
l gro
wth
rat
e, 1
990–
2009
)
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Competitiveness will need to improve
Source: World Economic Forum, Global Competitiveness Report, 2010–11.
MENAP Oil Importers
Competitiveness Rankings, 2010–11¹
¹Economies are ranked from 1 to 139, with first place being the best. MENAP oil importers is a simple average of Egypt, Jordan, Lebanon, Mauritania, Morocco, Pakistan, Syria, and Tunisia. Emerging Asia is simple average of China, Hong Kong SAR, India, Indonesia, Korea, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore, Taiwan Province of China, Thailand, and Vietnam.
0
25
50
75
100Market size
Inf rastructure
Macroeconomic stability
Health and primary
education
Higher education and
training
Goods market ef f iciency
Labor market ef f iciency
Financial market
sophistication
Innovation
Business sophistication
Technological readiness
Institutions
MENAP oil importers Emerging Asia
Best
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Real GDP trends, annual percent change
901980 85 2000 10
Advancedeconomies
1595 05
Source: IMF, World Economic Outlook database.
Note: 1980-2015 real GDP growth data are de-trended as 10-year backward rolling averages.
Asia
Latin America
Broader Partnerships
MENAP Oil Importers
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MENAP Oil Importers