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Global Population Age Structures and Sustainable Development Nicole Mun Sim Lai United Nations Population Division Expert Group Meeting on Changing Population Age Structures and Sustainable Development New York, 13-14 October 2016

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Page 1: Global Population Age Structures and Sustainable Development · Age Distribution of the World Population, 1980-2050 16% 50% 8% 0-14 children 15-24 youth 25-64 working age ... Philippines,

Global Population Age Structures and Sustainable Development

Nicole Mun Sim Lai

United Nations Population Division

Expert Group Meeting on Changing Population Age

Structures and Sustainable Development

New York, 13-14 October 2016

Page 2: Global Population Age Structures and Sustainable Development · Age Distribution of the World Population, 1980-2050 16% 50% 8% 0-14 children 15-24 youth 25-64 working age ... Philippines,

I. Changing Population Age Structure: Disparities and Drivers

Page 3: Global Population Age Structures and Sustainable Development · Age Distribution of the World Population, 1980-2050 16% 50% 8% 0-14 children 15-24 youth 25-64 working age ... Philippines,

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Perc

enta

ge o

f p

op

ula

tio

n

Year

Age Distribution of the World Population, 1980-2050

16%

50%

8%

0-14 children

15-24 youth

25-64 working age

65+ older persons

49%

14%

21% 26%

16%

The share of older persons is set to double by 2050, while the share of children and youth will decline. The working-age population is expected to stay at one half of the population.

Data source: World Population Prospects: The 2015 Revision

Page 4: Global Population Age Structures and Sustainable Development · Age Distribution of the World Population, 1980-2050 16% 50% 8% 0-14 children 15-24 youth 25-64 working age ... Philippines,

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Africa

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Asia

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

LAC

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Northern America

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Europe

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Oceania

Europe, Northern America, LAC and Asia are ageing, while Africa has a very young population

Data source: World Population Prospects: The 2015 Revision

Perc

enta

ge o

f p

op

ula

tio

n

Perc

enta

ge o

f p

op

ula

tio

n

0-14 years 15-24 years 25-64 years 65+ years

Page 5: Global Population Age Structures and Sustainable Development · Age Distribution of the World Population, 1980-2050 16% 50% 8% 0-14 children 15-24 youth 25-64 working age ... Philippines,

Fertility decline is, by far, the most

important driver of population ageing

• Mortality decline occurs among both

younger and older age groups, with little

overall effect on the age distribution

• Fertility decline reduces the number of

births, gradually shifting the balance from

young people towards older people in the

population

Page 6: Global Population Age Structures and Sustainable Development · Age Distribution of the World Population, 1980-2050 16% 50% 8% 0-14 children 15-24 youth 25-64 working age ... Philippines,

4.7 5.1

5.5 5.8 4.9

3.3 2.5 2.4 2.2

1.6 2.2 1.9

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

TFR

Ch

ildre

n p

er

wo

man

2010-2015

Data source: World Population Prospects: the 2015 Revision

Fertility remains high in many countries in Sub-Sahara Africa; it has fallen to low levels in most other regions.

2.5

Page 7: Global Population Age Structures and Sustainable Development · Age Distribution of the World Population, 1980-2050 16% 50% 8% 0-14 children 15-24 youth 25-64 working age ... Philippines,

64

33 28

17 23

40

53

64 59

68 69 73 75

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

01020304050607080

Contraceptive use TFR

Per

cen

tage

Ch

ildre

n p

er

wo

man

2015 2010-2015

Data sources: World Population Prospects: the 2015 Revision and Trends in Contraceptive Use Worldwide 2015

A majority of married or in-union women use contraceptives, but prevalence is low in Western and Middle Africa

Page 8: Global Population Age Structures and Sustainable Development · Age Distribution of the World Population, 1980-2050 16% 50% 8% 0-14 children 15-24 youth 25-64 working age ... Philippines,

12

22 24 24 26 24 15 13 15

10 10 11 7

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

01020304050607080

Contraceptive use Unmet need for family planning TFR

Per

cen

tage

Ch

ildre

n p

er

wo

man

2015 2015 2010-2015

Data sources: World Population Prospects: the 2015 Revision and Trends in Contraceptive Use Worldwide 2015

Unmet need for family planning is highest in sub-Saharan Africa, where contraceptive use is low and fertility is high

Page 9: Global Population Age Structures and Sustainable Development · Age Distribution of the World Population, 1980-2050 16% 50% 8% 0-14 children 15-24 youth 25-64 working age ... Philippines,

25%

9%

23%

39% 51% 52%

71%

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

World Africa Asia LAC Europe Oceania N America

Ch

ange

in li

fe e

xpe

ctan

cy a

t b

irth

(ye

ars)

0 to 4 years 5 to 59 years 60 years or over

Contribution of mortality decline at different ages to improvements in the life expectancy at birth between 1995-2000 and 2010-2015

Source: World Population Ageing Report 2015

Improvements in survival at age 60+ accounted for more than half of the total improvement in longevity in Oceania, Europe and N. America, while reduced mortality at younger ages was more important in Africa,

Asia and LAC.

Page 10: Global Population Age Structures and Sustainable Development · Age Distribution of the World Population, 1980-2050 16% 50% 8% 0-14 children 15-24 youth 25-64 working age ... Philippines,

Can population ageing be slowed

or reversed? • Population ageing is in many ways a

demographic success story, driven by changes in fertility and mortality that are associated with economic and social development.

• But the changes in population age structure brought on by sustained low fertility pose challenges, including an expanding older population and shrinking workforce to pay for social services and pensions and to drive economic growth

Page 11: Global Population Age Structures and Sustainable Development · Age Distribution of the World Population, 1980-2050 16% 50% 8% 0-14 children 15-24 youth 25-64 working age ... Philippines,

Government migration policy and ageing concerns in the past 5 years, 2015

9 12

50

4 10 9

61

20 0

20

40

60

80

100

120

Nointervention/noofficial policy/no

data

Lower Maintain Raise

Major concern

Minor concern

Austria, Brazil, Bulgaria, China, Finland, Germany, Hungary, Israel, Kazakhstan, Rep Korea, Lithuania,

Poland, Portugal, Romania, Russian, Rwanda, Sweden,

Thailand, Ukraine, Uruguay

Barbados, Belize, France, Ghana, Greece, Iran, Seychelles, Switzerland, UK

Nu

mb

er o

f co

un

trie

s Governments that consider populating ageing as major

concern are more likely to have policies to maintain or raise regular immigration into their countries.

Ageing concern

Source: World Population Policies 2015

Page 12: Global Population Age Structures and Sustainable Development · Age Distribution of the World Population, 1980-2050 16% 50% 8% 0-14 children 15-24 youth 25-64 working age ... Philippines,

II. Social and Economic Implications and Policy Priorities for Sustainable

Development

Page 13: Global Population Age Structures and Sustainable Development · Age Distribution of the World Population, 1980-2050 16% 50% 8% 0-14 children 15-24 youth 25-64 working age ... Philippines,

Sustainable Development

• Sustainable development entails meeting the needs of the present without compromising the ability of future generations to meet their needs

• The 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development embraces 3 core elements: economic growth, social inclusion and environmental protection, to be achieved through 17 goals

• Demographic change and population age structure affect the trajectory of development, and the type of policies best suited to each stage of the demographic transition

Page 14: Global Population Age Structures and Sustainable Development · Age Distribution of the World Population, 1980-2050 16% 50% 8% 0-14 children 15-24 youth 25-64 working age ... Philippines,

Philippines, 1999 (young age structure) Germany, 2003 (aged population)

Source: National Transfer Accounts Manual, United Nations 2013.

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90+

Agg

rega

te f

low

s (b

illio

n p

eso

s)

Labor income

Consumption

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90+

Agg

reat

e f

low

s (b

illio

n e

uro

s)

Consumption

Labor income

Economic consequences of population age structures are also determined by the characteristics of the economic life cycle

Child deficits are large Old-age deficits are larger than child deficits

Page 15: Global Population Age Structures and Sustainable Development · Age Distribution of the World Population, 1980-2050 16% 50% 8% 0-14 children 15-24 youth 25-64 working age ... Philippines,

How economic life cycle is being financed has important implications on fiscal sustainability and welfare of individuals

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

50

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90+

Agg

rega

te v

alu

es

(bill

ion

pe

sos)

Age

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90

Public transfers Private transfers

Public asset-based reallocations Private asset-based reallocationsA

ggre

gate

val

ue

s (b

illio

n e

uro

s)

Age

Old age is financed by asset income and some private transfers

Public transfers financed substantially old age

Public transfers are as large as private transfers for children

Data source: computed from the NTA database. Available at http://www.ntaccounts.org/

Philippines, 1999 Germany, 2003

Children deficits are mainly financed by private transfers

A balance approach to old-age support by having asset income, increase labour supply at older ages, public social protection may yield less fear from population ageing

Page 16: Global Population Age Structures and Sustainable Development · Age Distribution of the World Population, 1980-2050 16% 50% 8% 0-14 children 15-24 youth 25-64 working age ... Philippines,

Economic Implications and Policies • How to spark demographic transition by

addressing human development challenges and speeding up the decline in fertility needed to raise working-age population to boost economic growth?

• How to accelerate job creation to grab the first demographic dividend for countries with large share of working-age population?

Page 17: Global Population Age Structures and Sustainable Development · Age Distribution of the World Population, 1980-2050 16% 50% 8% 0-14 children 15-24 youth 25-64 working age ... Philippines,

• How to prepare for rapid ageing population for countries facing high share of older population soon, especially for countries without sound social protection system?

• How to maintain population welfare and economic growth with rapid ageing?

• What are the implications for gender and social equality, intergenerational equity, and individual behavioral change (i.e. living arrangement, health)?

Economic Implications and Policies

Page 18: Global Population Age Structures and Sustainable Development · Age Distribution of the World Population, 1980-2050 16% 50% 8% 0-14 children 15-24 youth 25-64 working age ... Philippines,

Acknowledgement

Colleagues of Population Division, including Jorge Bravo, Patrick Gerland, Sara Hertog, Nan Li, and Vladimira Kantorova, have contributed comments and review of this presentation

Thank you

Page 19: Global Population Age Structures and Sustainable Development · Age Distribution of the World Population, 1980-2050 16% 50% 8% 0-14 children 15-24 youth 25-64 working age ... Philippines,

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

A. alone B. couple C. skippedgeneration

D1. withyoung kids

D2. with adultkids only

NT

th

ou

sa

nd

s

private education

private health

private other

public education

public health

public other

average C

Source: Tung and Lai, 2013

Mean Consumption of Older Persons by Living Arrangement

Page 20: Global Population Age Structures and Sustainable Development · Age Distribution of the World Population, 1980-2050 16% 50% 8% 0-14 children 15-24 youth 25-64 working age ... Philippines,

Migration can contribute to population growth, especially where fertility is low

-100

0

100

200

300

400

500

Mill

ion

s

Africa

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

80

Mill

ion

s

Europe

0

10

20

30

40

Mill

ion

s

Northern America

Page 21: Global Population Age Structures and Sustainable Development · Age Distribution of the World Population, 1980-2050 16% 50% 8% 0-14 children 15-24 youth 25-64 working age ... Philippines,

International migration is expected to add modestly to the working-age populations of some regions

0

250

500

750

1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Pop

ula

tio

n a

ged

15

-64

(m

illio

ns)

Medium variant Zero net migration

Working age population, Medium variant vs. Zero net migration (starting in 2015)

Europe

Northern America

8 per cent larger in

2050

18 per cent

larger in 2050