global research gold & silver marketwatchtechnical commentary gold - the near-term technical...
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Global Research
Gold & Silver Marketwatch
Strategist Contact Information Camilla Sutton, CFA Stephen Malyon, CFA [email protected] [email protected] (416) 866-5470 (416) 863-7719 Trading Contacts Reuters MMCN or (212)225-6200 Stephen Abbriano—[email protected] Robert Lockwood—[email protected]
Daily Update: Monday, August 13, 2007
www.scotiamocatta.com
Market Commentary Gold opened 670.30/670.80 in New York and rallied to a high of 671.60/672.10. The move higher was mainly on the back of a jump higher in oil prices. However, gold met resistance as it approached 672. Later in the morning gold dropped to its intraday low of 668.50/669.00, mainly due to another round of USD strength after retail sales. Late in the trading day, gold rebounded from the low to close at 669.90/670.40. All in all, today was a fairly range bound day, with a tight spread between the high and low. Silver opened at 1281.00/1283.00 and fell as funds sold early in the morning, reaching a low of 1275.00/1278.00. Most of the drop was on the back of a strong USD, but as oil and base metal prices gained momentum dealer buying caused the price to climb to a high of 1283.00/1286.00. The metal fell marginally from the high and traded sideways during the latter part of the day finally closing at 1282.00/1285.00. Technical Commentary Gold - The near-term technical outlook for gold continues to look rela-tively mixed, though it is leaning to further weakness. As the chart on page 2 highlights, the candlestick pattern remains bearish as the strong candle on Friday lacked conviction to close above Thursday’s open and there was no follow through today. A close above 674.70, is needed to convince us that the bulls have regained control. However, gold is trading above both its 100 and 200 day moving average, which provides reassurance that the current trading is more likely to be one of range trading. Silver - The narrowing pattern that has formed in silver over the last few months (see candle chart on page 2), has broken and silver has had its second close below. Accordingly, the near-term outlook for silver points to the potential for further weakness.
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1.5
2.2
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0.8
-6.0 -3.0 0.0 3.0 6.0
Gold
Silver
Platinum
Palladium
Oil WTI fut
Copper fut
EUR
S&P 500
CRB
%
1-Day Commodity Moves
-0.3
-1.3
-0.9
-1.7
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-6.0 -3.0 0.0 3.0 6.0
Gold
Silver
Platinum
Palladium
Oil WTI fut
Copper fut
EUR
S&P 500
CRB%
5-Day Commodity Moves
Gold Silver Platinum PalladiumOpen 670.30/670.80 12.81/12.84 1,271 356.50 High 671.60/672.10 12.83/12.86 1,282 365.00 Low 668.50/669.00 12.75/12.78 1,271 351.00 Close / Last Mid* 669.90/670.40 12.82/12.85 1,277 357.00 London Fix AM 669.85 12.870 1,273 353.00 London Fix PM 668.75 - 1,276 354.00 Handy Harman (Base) 668.75 12.830 1,276 354.00 Gold / Silver Ratio 52.0 NA NA NAOpen Interest Gold OI 1 Day Ch Silver OI 1 Day ChCOMEX 351,736 (2,425) 122,314 (55)CBOT 19,665 (55) 7,039 50Total 371,401 (2,480) 129,353 (5)
Gold, Silver, Platinum & PalladiumGold Silver Platinum Palladium
Pivot 668.29 12.808 1,275 356.33 Primary Support (Buy) 659.89 12.602 1,269 347.67 Primary Resistance (Sell) 678.11 13.022 1,288 365.67 HBOP 696.33 13.442 1,307 383.67 LBOP 641.67 12.182 1,249 329.67 Bollinger Band Upper 684.07 13.372 1,338 372.53 Bollinger Band Mid 670.96 13.001 1,297 364.34 Bollinger Band Lower 657.86 12.630 1,257 356.14 Relative Strength 14 Day 51 44 40 34
Technical Levels, etc.
Close/last mid refers to the spot closing floor price in gold and silver, and spot’s last mid price as provided by Bloomberg in platinum & palladium spot All other data provided by Bloomberg. Actual market levels may have differed .
Global Research Monday, August 13,
This report has been prepared by ScotiaMocatta and is not intended for use by private individuals. The ScotiaMocatta trademark represents the precious metals business of The Bank of Nova Scotia. The Bank of Nova Scotia, a Canadian chartered bank, is incorporated in Canada with limited liability. Opinions, estimates and projections con-tained herein are subject to change without notice. The information and opinions contained herein have been compiled or arrived at from sources believed reliable but no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to their accuracy or completeness. Neither the Bank of Nova Scotia, its affiliates, employees or agents accepts any liability whatsoever for any loss arising from the use of this report or its contents. The Bank of Nova Scotia, its affiliates, employees or agents may hold a position in the products contained herein. This report is not a direct offer financial promotion, and is not to be construed as, an offer to sell or solicitation of an offer to buy any products whatsoever. The Bank of Nova Scotia is authorized and regulated by The Financial Services Authority.
CAD 1.0517 CRB 313.01 EUR 1.3622 DJAIG 167.86 GBP 2.0140 Crude (fut) 72.18 CHF 1.2057 S&P 500 1,459.06 AUD 0.8420 US 10 Yr 4.77 ZAR 7.1895 US 30 Yr 5.00 JYP 118.26 CDN 10 Yr 4.47 as of: 8/13/2007 14:16 as of: 8/13/2007 14:16
MarketsFX Majors
6
8
10
12
14
16
Sep-05 Jan-06 May-06 Sep-06 Jan-07 May-07
Spot
100-Day
200-Day
400-Day
$/oz
Silver: 2-Year Close with Moving Averages
12.0
12.5
13.0
13.5
14.0
21-Jun 1-Jul 11-Jul 21-Jul 31-Jul 10-Aug
Silver: 2-Month Candlesticks
Gold Silver Platinum Palladium5 Day MA 670.42 12.910 1,278 359.30 10 Day MA 669.39 12.940 1,283 361.60 20 Day MA 670.96 13.000 1,297 364.34 30 Day MA 667.17 12.940 1,298 365.38 60 Day MA 661.57 13.010 1,291 367.16 100 Day MA 667.20 13.210 1,290 367.03 200 Day MA 654.07 13.220 1,231 351.80
Moving Averages
400
450
500
550
600
650
700
750
Sep-05 Jan-06 May-06 Sep-06 Jan-07 May-07
Spot
100-Day
200-Day
400-Day
$/oz
620
630
640
650
660
670
680
690
700
21-Jun 1-Jul 11-Jul 21-Jul 31-Jul 10-Aug
Gold: 2-Year Close with Moving Averages Gold: 2-Month Candlesticks
Candlestick pattern remains bearish as Friday’s strong up candle could not close above Thursday’s open (674.70).
Narrowing pattern breaks, which points to downside