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Global Risk ForumDavos
Global Risk ForumGlobal Risk ForumDavosDavos
David AlexanderDavid AlexanderGRF GRF --
DavosDavos
(CH)(CH)
Global Risk Forum DavosGlobal Risk Forum DavosGlobal Risk Forum Davos
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From Thought to Action
Earthquakes and HousingHow to Develop a Survival StrategyEarthquakes and HousingEarthquakes and HousingHow to Develop a Survival StrategyHow to Develop a Survival Strategy
Recent research by Recent research by David AlexanderDavid Alexander
Damage level 1:minimum
Damage level 1:Damage level 1:minimumminimum
Damage level 2:mainly non-structural
Damage level 2:Damage level 2:mainly nonmainly non--structuralstructural
Damage level 3:architectural
Damage level 3:Damage level 3:architecturalarchitectural
Damage level 4:serious structuralDamage level 4:Damage level 4:serious structuralserious structural
Damage level 5:collapse
Damage level 5:Damage level 5:collapsecollapse
Character-isation ofdamage forassessmentof personalrisk level
CharacterCharacter--isation ofisation ofdamage fordamage forassessmentassessmentof personalof personalrisk levelrisk level
Poor buildingquality
(low seismicresistance)
Poor buildingPoor buildingqualityquality
(low seismic(low seismicresistance)resistance)
Proximityto epicentreand faultrupture
ProximityProximityto epicentreto epicentreand faultand faultrupturerupture
TopographicamplificationTopographicTopographicamplificationamplification
SedimentaryamplificationSedimentarySedimentaryamplificationamplification
QQQ EEE
TTT SSSConcentrationof casualties
C
ConcentrationConcentrationof casualtiesof casualties
CC
C = f { E,Q,S,T }C = C = f f { E,Q,S,T }{ E,Q,S,T }
The 2009 L'Aquila (Italy) earthquakeThe 2009 L'Aquila (Italy) earthquakeThe 2009 L'Aquila (Italy) earthquake
03.32 hrs, Monday 6 April 2009Magnitude Mw
6,3
Duration 25 secondsAcceleration on hard rock 0,3g
Acceleration on sediments 0,7-1,0gPart of an earthquake swarm from
October 2008 to July 2009308 deaths, 1500 injuries.
03.32 hrs, Monday 6 April 200903.32 hrs, Monday 6 April 2009Magnitude MMagnitude Mww
6,36,3
Duration 25 secondsDuration 25 secondsAcceleration on hard rock 0,3gAcceleration on hard rock 0,3g
Acceleration on sediments 0,7Acceleration on sediments 0,7--1,0g1,0gPart of an earthquake swarm fromPart of an earthquake swarm from
October 2008 to July 2009October 2008 to July 2009308 deaths, 1500 injuries308 deaths, 1500 injuries..
6-25 deaths 3-5 deaths 1-2 deaths
Clustersof multiple
deaths
ClustersClustersof multipleof multiple
deathsdeaths
n=202
L'Aquila city
One or two individualsOne or two individualsOne or two individuals
No deathsNo deathsNo deaths
No deaths:housing stock wasin relatively good
condition anddamage was limited
No deaths:No deaths:housing stock washousing stock wasin relatively goodin relatively good
condition andcondition anddamage was limiteddamage was limited
Damage/riskscale: 1-2
Damage/riskDamage/riskscale: 1scale: 1--22
One or two individuals:people rushed outsideand were killed byfalling masonry
One or two individuals:One or two individuals:people rushed outsidepeople rushed outsideand were killed byand were killed byfalling masonryfalling masonry
Damage/riskscale: 3-4
Damage/riskDamage/riskscale: 3scale: 3--44
... or inthe collapseof stairwells.
... or in... or inthe collapsethe collapseof stairwells.of stairwells.
Clusters of multiple deaths:
spectacular collapsesof multi-occupancybuildings with up
to 25 deaths each:topographic
amplification was anadditional factor.
Clusters of Clusters of multiple deaths:multiple deaths:
spectacular collapsesspectacular collapsesof multiof multi--occupancyoccupancybuildings with upbuildings with up
to 25 deaths each:to 25 deaths each:topographictopographic
amplification was anamplification was anadditional factoradditional factor..
Damage/riskscale: 5
Damage/riskDamage/riskscale: 5scale: 5
Mid-floor damage to multi-occupancy bldg:Mid-floor damage to multi-occupancy bldg:
Intertia effectIntertia effectIntertia effect
Basal accelerationBasal accelerationBasal acceleration
Interaction = damageInteraction = damageInteraction = damage
Lack of stiffness in frameLack of stiffness in frameLack of stiffness in frame
Models of typical Models of typical vernacular housingvernacular housing
building typesbuilding types
Analysis ofAnalysis ofcharacteristiccharacteristicfailure modesfailure modes
DeterminationDeterminationof appropriateof appropriatecrisis behaviourcrisis behaviour
Education andEducation andtraining oftraining ofhouseholdshouseholds
Culture ofCulture ofprotectionprotection
and resilienceand resilience
emergency-planning.blogspot.comwww.slideshare.net/dealexander
emergency-planning.blogspot.comwww.slideshare.net/dealexanderwww.slideshare.net/dealexander