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Global Scenarios for Fast Reactor Deployment
7 October 2008
Hotel Lake View Mito, Mito, Japan
Kiyoshi ONO, Atsushi Kato, Akira OHTAKI
Japan Atomic Energy Agency
The Tenth OECD Nuclear Energy Agency
Information Exchange Meeting on
Actinide and Fission Product Partitioning and Transmutation
1
1. Purpose
Based on homogeneous scenario concept, we grasp the maximum scale of FBR
deployment, natural uranium saving benefit and so on if JSFR (main concept selected in
the Japanese Feasibility Studies on Commercialized FBR Cycle System; sodium-cooled
FBR with MOX fuel) is deployed in the world.
Main assumptions are as follows,
(1) Perspective of world nuclear generating electricity;
IPCC SRES-B2 scenario, IIASA/WEC C2 scenario
- about 2,000GWe at 2050, about 5,000GWe constant after 2100 in SRES-B2 scenario
- about 1,000GWe at 2050, about 2,200GWe constant after 2100 in IIASA-C2 scenario
(2) Timing of FBR deployment in world key countries;
- India: 2020
- Russia: 2020-2025
- France: about 2040
- China: 2030-2035
- Japan: about 2050
FBRs are assumed to be deployed
at 2020 - 2070
2
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
1950 2000 2050 2100 2150 2200
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100
IPCC-A1C
IPCC-A2
IPCC-B1
IPCC-B2
IIASA-A1
IIASA-A2
IIASA-A3
IIASA-B
IIASA-C1
IIASA-C2
IEA-AlternativeScenarioIEA-ReferenceScenarioIAEA-Low
IAEA-High
2.1 Assumption of nuclear power generation and
capacity in the world (IPCC SRES-B2)
World nuclear power capacity in SRES-B2
(No FBR deployment)
Nuclear capacity after 2100 is constant
BWR
PWR
ABWR(20%)
APWR(70%)
HWR-U(10%)
Nu
clea
r p
ow
er g
ener
ati
on
(T
Wh
)
Year
*1
Typical perspectives for nuclear power
generation
IPCC SRES-B2
Note IPCC :The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, IIASA :International Institute for Applied System Analysis, WEC: World Energy Council*1: By MESSAGE Code
Nu
clea
r C
ap
aci
ty (
GW
e)
Year
Load Factor 90%
IIASA/WEC-C2
3
Ref.)Mi Xu, Status and Prospects of Sustainable Nuclear Power Supply in
China, GLOBAL2005, No.511, Tsukuba, JAPAN (2005).
237
79400
160
580
270
20
50
2.1 11.7 4060
1650
600
960
72.4327
237
79400
160
580
270
20
50
2.1 11.7 4060
1650
600
960
72.4327
Electric capacity development envisaged in China
250GWe
Projected Installed Power Capacity in India
Ref. )Department of Atomic Energy (DAE), http://www.dae.gov.in/
275GWe
2.2 Perspectives for nuclear power generation and
capacity in China and India
4
2.3 Main assumptions of nuclear power reactor system
- characteristic data -
Life time 60 years for all type of reactors
Reactor
type
BWR Burn-up 45GWd/t, for Reactors which will be deployed by 2019
ABWR Burn-up 60GWd/t, for Reactors which will be deployed after 2020
PWR Burn-up 49GWd/t, for Reactors which will be deployed by 2019
APWR Burn-up 60GWd/t, for Reactors which will be deployed after 2020
HWR-U Burn-up 8.3GWd/t, natural uranium fuels for CANDU
FBR
High Breeding ratio type(Sodium-cooled, MOX fuel)
: Breeding ratio 1.20, Average Burn-up 55GWd/t
Low Breeding ratio type(Sodium-cooled, MOX fuel)
: Breeding ratio 1.03, Average Burn-up 115GWd/t
Deploym
ent ratio
BWR&ABWR 20% of all capacity except FBR
PWR&APWR 70% of all capacity except FBR
HWR-U 10% of all capacity except FBR
5
2.4 Main assumptions of nuclear fuel cycle system
Ex-core time period
LWR 4 years(Cooling time 3years, Reprocessing 0.5 year, Fab. & trans. 0.5 year)
FBR 5 years (Cooling time 4years, Reprocessing 0.5 year, Fabrication 0.5 year)3 years (Cooling time 2years, Reprocessing 0.5 year, Fabrication 0.5 year)
Enrichment plant Capacity is not limited.
Fuel fabrication plant Capacity is not limited.
Reprocessing Plant
LWR-UO2 -2009: 4,100 ton-HM/year2010-just before FBR development: 4,900 ton HM/yearAfter FBR deployment: The reprocessing plant capacity is gradually increased in accordance with amount of spent fuels discharged from FBR.
LWR-MOX
They will be processed in the FBR reprocessing plant in 20-40 years.
HWR Long-term storage of spent fuels
FBR Reprocessing of all spent fuels
Loss factor LWR, HWR
Enrichment 0%, Conversion0.5%, Fabrication 0.1%, Reprocessing 0.5%
FBR Fabrication 0.1%, Reprocessing 0.1%
U-235 enrichment 0.25%, 0.2%
Other The uranium recovered from spent fuels is re-enriched
6
3. Analysis cases for IPCC SRES-B2 scenario
CaseFBR deployment Tails assay
FBR Ex-core time
period
In 2020 In 2030 0.25% 0.20% 5 years*1 3 years*2
Resources free
LWR once-through (A1)
- - X - -
Deployment in 2030 (A2) X X X
Deployment in 2020(A3)
X X X
Uranium saving(A4) X X X
Resources restriction
*3
LWR once-through (B1) X X
Base case (B2) X X X
Ex-core Time 3 years (B3) X X X
Uranium saving(B4) X X X
Note
*1: 5 years (Cooling time 4years, Reprocessing 0.5 year, Fabrication 0.5 year)
*2: 3 years (Cooling time 2years, Reprocessing 0.5 year, Fabrication 0.5 year)
*3: Limitation of natural uranium 14.8 million ton U after 2005
7
39
8
0
10
20
30
40
50
2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100
4.1 Nuclear capacity and Cumulative U demands of LWR once-through in the world
Year
LWR
ALWR
HWR
Total
Total Conventional Uranium
Resources(14.8 million tonU)*1
Case-A1
*1 OECD/NEA-IAEA. Uranium 2005:Resources, Production and Demand (2006)
Pu recyclingin LWR
Year
World nuclear capacity(Case-A1:LWR once-through)
Nu
clea
r C
ap
aci
ty (
GW
e)
Acc
um
ula
tiv
e u
ran
ium
dem
an
ds
(mil
lio
n t
on
U)
World cumulative natural uranium demands after 2005 (Case-A1:LWR once-through)
8
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
2000 2050 2100 2150 2200
Year
LWRAdv. LWR
HWR
Total
Case-A3
Pu recyclingin LWR
World nuclear capacity(Case-A3:FBR deployment in 2020)
Nu
clea
r C
ap
aci
ty (
GW
e)
FBR(B.R.1.2)
FBR(B.R.1.03)
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
2000 2050 2100 2150 2200
4.2 Nuclear capacity of CaseA2-A4
Year
LWRAdv. LWR
HWR
Total
Case-A2&A4
Pu recyclingin LWR
World nuclear capacity(Case-A2&A4:FBR deployment in 2030)
Nu
clea
r C
ap
aci
ty (
GW
e)
FBR(B.R.1.2)
FBR(B.R.1.03)
9
26.625.424.4
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
2000 2050 2100 2150 2200
4.3 Cumulative Natural Uranium demands of Case A2-A4
Total Conventional Uranium Resources after 2005(14.8 million tonU)
Year
Acc
um
ula
tive
ura
niu
m d
ema
nd
s (m
illi
on
to
nU
)
World cumulative natural uranium demands after 2005
Case-A2: FBR introduction in 2030(Tails assay 0.25%)
Case-A3: FBR introduction in 2020(Tails assay 0.25%)
Case-A4: FBR deployment in 2030(Tails assay 0.20%)
10
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
2000 2050 2100 2150 2200
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
2000 2050 2100 2150 2200
Year
Case-A2
LWR(MOX) SF
FBR reprocessing plants capacity in the world(Case-A2: FBR deployment in 2030)
Rep
roce
ssin
g C
ap
aci
ty (
ton
/yea
r)Year
Amount of processed
LWR(UO2) SF
LWR reprocessing plants capacity
Case-A2
LWR reprocessing plants capacity in the world(Case-A2: FBR deployment in 2030)
Rep
roce
ssin
g C
ap
aci
ty (
ton
/yea
r)4.4 Capacity for each type of reprocessing plants of Case-A2
FBR reprocessing plants capacity
Amount of processed
FBR SF
11
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
2000 2050 2100 2150 2200
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
2000 2050 2100 2150 2200
Year
LWR
Adv. LWR
HWR
Case-B2
Pu recyclingin LWR
World nuclear capacity(Case-B2:Base case)
Nu
clea
r C
ap
aci
ty (
GW
e)
FBR(B.R.1.2)
FBR(B.R.1.03)
4.5 Nuclear capacity of Case-B1&B2
Year
LWR
Adv. LWR
HWR
IPCC SRES-B2
Case-B1
Pu recyclingin LWR
World nuclear capacity(Case-B1: LWR once-through )
Nu
clea
r C
ap
aci
ty (
GW
e)
IPCC SRES-B2 Shortage of 1,630GWe
12
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
2000 2050 2100 2150 2200
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
2000 2050 2100 2150 2200
Year
Case-B4
Pu recyclingin LWR
World nuclear capacity(Case-B4:Tails assay 0.2%)
Nu
clea
r C
ap
aci
ty (
GW
e)
4.6 Nuclear capacity for each type reactor of Case-B3&B4
IPCC SRES-B2
Year
LWR
ALWR
HWR
Case-B3
Pu recyclingin LWR
World nuclear capacity(Case-B3:Ex-core time period 3years)
Nu
clea
r C
ap
aci
ty (
GW
e)
FBR(B.R.1.2)
FBR(B.R.1.03)
IPCC SRES-B2
LWR
ALWR
HWR
FBR(B.R.1.2)
FBR(B.R.1.03)
Maximum shortage of
1,360GWe
Maximum shortage of
360GWe
13
14.314.7
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
2000 2050 2100 2150 2200
4.7 Cumulative Natural Uranium demands of Case B1-B4
Total Conventional Uranium Resources(14.8 million tonU)
Limit of natural uranium 14.8 million ton-U after 2005
Year
Acc
um
ula
tive
ura
niu
m d
eman
ds
(mil
lion
ton
U)
World cumulative natural uranium demand after 2005(Case B1-B4 )
FBR deployment(B2-B4)
Once-through(B1)
14
4.8 Summary of scenario study in IPCC SRES-B2 scenario
Case
Cumulative natural uranium
demand (million ton U)Nuclear
capacity in
2100 (GWe)
The year whenshift to FBR will finish *
(year)
The year whennuclear
generation will reach SRES-B2
caseat 2100 maximum
Resource
free
LWR once-
through (A1)39.1 - 5,000 - -
Introduction in
2030 (A2)19.1 26.6 5,000 2160 -
Introduction in
2020 (A3)18.2 25.4 5,000 2160 -
Uranium
saving(A4)17.4 24.4 5,000 2160 -
Resource
restriction
LWR once-
through (B1)14.3 - 290 - -
Base case (B2) 13.7 14.4 3,371 2121 2132
Ex-core Time
3years(B3)13.5 14.7 4,641 2128 2106
Uranium
saving(B4)13.6 14.7 3,642 2125 2129
*) At the year when all LWRs will be replaced by FBR
15
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100
IPCC/SRES-A1(AIM)IPCC/SRES-A2(ASF)IPCC/SRES-B1(IMAGE)IPCC/SRES-B2(MESSAGE)IIASA/WEC-A1
IIASA/WEC-A2
IIASA/WEC-A3
IIASA/WEC-B
IIASA/WEC-C1
IIASA/WEC-C2
IEA-AlternativeScenarioIEA-ReferenceScenarioIAEA-Low
IAEA-High
Typical perspectives for nuclear power generation
Nu
clea
r p
ow
er g
ener
ati
on
(T
Wh
)
Year
IIASA/WEC-C2
Note IPCC :The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change), SRES: Special Report Emission ScenariosIIASA : International Institute for Applied System Analysis, WEC: World Energy Council
IPCC SRES-B2
5.1 Assumption of nuclear power generation and capacity in the
world (IIASA/WEC-C2)
16
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
1950 2000 2050 2100 2150 2200
BWR PWR ABWR
APWR HWR-U BWR⇒BWRプルサーマル
PWR⇒PWRプルサーマル 合計
Nu
clea
r ca
pa
city
(G
We)
Year
IIASA/WEC-C2 scenario(Nuclear capacity after 2100 is constant)
BWRPWR
ABWR (20%)
APWR (70%)
HWR-U (10%)
World nuclear power capacity (IIASA/WEC-C2)
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
2000 2050 2100 2150 2200
Nu
clea
r ca
pa
city
(G
We)
Year
FBR deploymentin 2030
IIASA/WEC-C2 scenario(Nuclear capacity after 2100 is constant)
FBR deployment in 2050
FBR deployment in 2070
FBR deployment capacity
BWR ⇒BWR-MOX
PWR ⇒PWR-MOX TOTAL
5.2 Nuclear capacity in IIASA/WEC-C2 scenario
17
World cumulative natural uranium demands after 2005
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2000 2050 2100 2150 2200
FBR deployment in 2050
Na
tura
l u
ran
ium
dem
an
ds
(ten
th
ou
san
d to
nU
)
Year
Total Conventional UraniumResources (14.8 million tonU)
Identified Resources
(4.74million tU)
FBR deploymentin 2030
LWR once-through FBR deployment
in 2070
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
2000 2050 2100 2150 2200R
epro
cess
ing
Ca
pa
city
(to
n/y
ear)
Year
Amount of processed LWR (UO2) SF
LWR(MOX) SF
Amount of processed FBR SF
FBR reprocessing
plants capacity
FBR reprocessing plants capacity
(FBR deployment in 2050)
5.3 Cumulative U demands and Capacity for reprocessing plants
of IIASA/WEC-C2 scenario
18
6. Conclusions
- In IPCC SRES-B2 scenario, cumulative natural uranium demands will
exceed the total conventional uranium resources of 14.8 million ton
(OECD/NEA-IAEA, Uranium 2005), even if FBRs are deployed at 2020.
- Under constrained condition of the total conventional uranium resources,
it is difficult to supply electricity assumed in IPCC SRES-B2 scenario.
- Shortening of the duration of the ex-core time period and decrease of tails
assay concentration have effects on decrease of cumulative natural
uranium demands.
- In IIASA/WEC-C2 scenario, cumulative uranium demands will saturate
within 14.8 million ton, if FBRs with about 1.2 BR are deployed before 2050.
19
20
Appendix
21
Natural Uranium Resources
OECD/NEA-IAEA.Uranium 2005:Resources, Production and Demand(2006)
Cost ranges
Identified Resources
(million ton U)Undiscovered Resources
(million ton U)Total
Conventional
Uranium
Resources
(million ton
U)
Reasonably
Assured
Resources
Inferred
Resources
Prognosticated
Resources
Speculative
Resources
Cost range
unassigned― ― ― 2.98
14.80
<US$130/kgU4.74
2.52
4.56
3.30 1.45
<US$80/kgU3.80
1.702.64 1.16
<US$40/kgU2.75
1.95 0.80
22
17.1
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
2000 2050 2100 2150 2200
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
2000 2050 2100 2150 2200
Sample results of sodium cooled type reactor with metallic fuel
Year
LWR
ALWR
HWR
Total
Total Conventional Uranium Resources
(14.8 million tonU)
Pu recyclingin LWR
Year
World nuclear capacity(FBR with metal fuel deployment in 2020)
Nu
clea
r C
apac
ity (
GW
e)
Acc
um
ula
tiv
e u
ran
ium
dem
and
s (m
illi
on
to
nU
)
World cumulative natural uranium demand after 2005
FBR(B.R.1.26)
FBR(B.R.1.03)
FBR: Sodium cooled type reactor with metal fuelTails assay 0.2%,
The uranium recovered from LWR SF is re-enriched
23
10.3
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
2000 2050 2100 2150 22000
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
2000 2050 2100 2150 2200
Sample results of IIASA/WEC-C2 scenario analysis
Year
LWR
ALWR
HWR
IIASA/WEC-C2 scenario
(Nuclear capacity after 2100 will be constant)
Total Conventional Uranium Resources
(14.8 million tonU)
Pu recyclingin LWR
Year
World nuclear capacity for IIASA/WEC-C2 case(FBR deployment in 2030)
Nu
clea
r C
apac
ity (
GW
e)
Acc
um
ula
tiv
e u
ran
ium
dem
and
s (m
illi
on
to
nU
)
World cumulative natural uranium demands after 2005(IIASA/WEC-C2 case)
FBR(B.R.1.2) FBR
(B.R.1.03)
FBR: Sodium-cooled type reactor with mixed-oxide fuelEx-core time period; 5 years, Tails assay ;0.25% The uranium recovered from LWR SF is re-enriched
24
Fuel mass balance for FBRCoolant
Fuel type/form
Core type Breeding core type Break-even core type Breeding core type Break-even core type
Electricity output (MWe) 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000Average burn-up (MWd/t) 54,300 114,900 55,400 153,000Breeding ratio (-) 1.20 1.03 1.26 1.03Load factor (%) 90.0 90.0 90.0 90.0Life time (Years) 60 60 60 60
CoreAxial
blanket
Radial
BlanketCore
Axial
blanket
Radial
BlanketCore
Axial
blanket
Radial
BlanketCore
Axial
blanket
Radial
BlanketInitial core loading
Heavy metal (ton) 31.663 39.094 29.656 50.079 19.261 48.753 24.366 15.101 65.176Uranium (ton) 23.850 39.094 29.656 39.753 19.261 42.712 24.366 15.101 57.370Plutonium (ton) 7.461 0.000 0.000 9.861 0.000 5.860 0.000 0.000 7.572Fissile plutonium (ton) 4.563 0.000 0.000 6.031 0.000 4.128 0.000 0.000 5.334Uranium enrichment (%) 0.300 0.300 0.300 0.300 0.300 0.300 0.300 0.300 0.300
Equiribrium fuel chargeHeavy metal (ton/year) 4.749 5.864 4.448 5.141 1.977 8.163 4.080 2.529 5.332Uranium (ton/year) 3.577 5.864 4.448 4.081 1.977 7.152 4.080 2.529 4.694Plutonium (ton/year) 1.119 0.000 0.000 1.012 0.000 0.981 0.000 0.000 0.619Fissile plutonium (ton/year) 0.684 0.000 0.000 0.619 0.000 0.691 0.000 0.000 0.436Uranium enrichment (%) 0.300 0.300 0.300 0.300 0.300 0.300 0.300 0.300 0.300
Initial core dischargeHeavy metal (ton/year) 4.560 5.848 4.445 4.945 1.967 7.886 4.072 2.525 5.191Uranium (ton/year) 3.436 5.788 4.423 3.909 1.939 6.852 4.036 2.506 4.544Plutonium (ton/year) 1.071 0.060 0.022 0.988 0.028 1.002 0.036 0.018 0.627Fissile plutonium (ton/year) 0.645 0.055 0.021 0.599 0.026 0.705 0.035 0.018 0.440Uranium enrichment (%) 0.258 0.278 0.288 0.257 0.269 0.247 0.280 0.282 0.269
Equiribrium fuel dischargeHeavy metal (ton/year) 3.991 5.799 4.433 4.357 1.937 7.330 4.058 2.517 4.482Uranium (ton/year) 3.011 5.560 4.345 3.392 1.823 6.253 3.950 2.462 3.797Plutonium (ton/year) 0.925 0.239 0.088 0.916 0.113 1.044 0.108 0.055 0.663Fissile plutonium (ton/year) 0.527 0.221 0.084 0.537 0.102 0.732 0.104 0.054 0.460Uranium enrichment (%) 0.108 0.207 0.252 0.100 0.168 0.125 0.239 0.245 0.077
Final core dischargeHeavy metal (ton) 28.400 38.856 29.599 45.248 19.054 45.459 24.287 15.061 59.116Uranium (ton) 21.421 37.789 29.215 35.469 18.319 39.095 23.840 14.835 50.782Plutonium (ton) 6.616 1.062 0.383 9.306 0.734 6.171 0.445 0.225 8.082Fissile plutonium (ton) 3.857 1.002 0.371 5.549 0.680 4.355 0.432 0.220 5.691
Uranium enrichment (%) 0.165 0.238 0.269 0.159 0.212 0.172 0.258 0.263 0.146
SodiumMixed-oxide/Pellet
SodiumMetal/Casting