Global Scenarios ServiceThe Global Scenarios Service employs the Oxford Economics Global Economic Model to explore the implications of key risks to the world economy. Every quarter, our economists analyse at least four potential global scenarios and their impact, including the effects on our baseline forecast, downside risks, and one upside trend.

Clients receive a written report describing the features of the baseline forecast and of each of the five-year scenarios, accompanied by the headline results. In addition, we supply an Excel file that shows both the quarterly and annual results for a range of variables for each of 80 countries, plus the Eurozone and the World as a whole. To ensure the scenarios are tailored to your needs, you can suggest upcoming simulations and speak directly with our economists.

Service Features

■■ Quarterly updated baseline forecast, with fully fleshed out upside and downside scenarios quantifying the impact of key risks and opportunities for the world economy over the next five years.

■■ Five-year forecasts and scenarios for each of 80 individual economies, covering the developed world and the bulk of world GDP, plus the Eurozone and world aggregates.

■■ Forecasts cover key variables for output, spending, employment, inflation, interest rates, balance of payments, and government finances. The forecasts also show projected rates for the US dollar, the euro, sterling, and the yen.

■■ A written report describes the baseline forecast and how each scenario develops, together with the headline results.

■■ Detailed Excel spreadsheets present quarterly and annual data for each variable for each country.

■■ Global scenarios Databank allows users to quickly build custom queries with complete flexibility and view the data in tables, charts, and maps.

■■ Economist support. We offer full support to clients to answer questions about our data or forecasts.

The service includes in-depth analysis of each scenario and its implications, charts, Excel tables, an interactive databank, webinars, and access to our economists

Country coverageEurope: Austria, Belgium, Bulgaria, Croatia, Cyprus, Czech Republic, Denmark, Estonia, Eurozone, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Ireland, Italy, Latvia, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Malta, Netherlands, Norway, Poland, Portugal, Romania, Russia, Slovak Republic, Slovenia, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Turkey, United Kingdom.

Americas: Argentina, Brazil, Canada, Chile, Colombia, Ecuador, Mexico, Peru, United States, Uruguay, Venezuela.

Middle East and Africa: Algeria, Angola, Bahrain, Egypt, Ghana, Iran, Iraq, Israel, Kenya, Kuwait, Mauritius, Morocco, Namibia, Nigeria, Oman, Pakistan, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, South Africa, Tunisia, Uganda, UAE, Zambia.

Asia Pacific: Australia, China, Hong Kong, India, Indonesia, Japan, Malaysia, New Zealand, Philippines, Singapore, South Korea, Taiwan, Thailand, Vietnam.

Data series includedQuarterly and annual forecasts under our baseline and alternative scenarios:

Macroeconomic data: Consumer price index; Consumption (government, real, LCU; government, constant prices & exchange rate, US$; private, real, LCU; private, constant prices & exchange rate, US$); Current account balance (in LCU, share of GDP); Current account of balance of payments (LCU; US$); Employment; Exchange rate (period average, per Euro; v US$); Exports, goods & services (real, LCU; constant prices & exchange rate, US$); Exports, goods (constant prices & exchange rate, US$; nominal, US$); Exports, services (constant prices & exchange rate, US$; nominal, US$); External debt (total, US$); Foreign direct investment (US$ GDP deflator); GDP

per capita (constant prices & exchange rate, US$; nominal, US$; PPP exchange rate, nominal, US$; real, US$); GDP (constant prices and exchange rate, US$; nominal, LCU; nominal, US$; PPP exchange rate, real, US$; real, LCU; Government balance, LCU); Government balance (share of GDP), Government debt (gross, LCU); Gross government debt (as a % of GDP); Imports, goods & services (real, LCU; constant prices & exchange rate, US$); Imports, goods (constant prices and exchange rate, US$; nominal, US$);

Imports, services (constant prices & exchange rate, US$; nominal, US$); Industrial production index; Investment (total fixed investment, real, LCU; total fixed, constant prices and exchange rate, US$); Population, total; Reserves (foreign exchange, US$; months of import cover); Services balance (in US$, as % of GDP); Stockbuilding (real, share of GDP); Unemployment rate; Visible trade balance (in US$, share of GDP).

Financial & commodity prices: Exchange rate (period average, per Euro; end of period, per euro; period average, v US$; end of period, v US$; effective, broad-based; real effective, broad-based); Interest rate (short-term, period average; short-term, eop; 10 year government bonds, period average; 10 year government bonds, eop; corporate bonds, period average; corporate bonds, eop); Interest rate spread (corporate bonds over government bonds, period average; corporate bonds over government bonds, eop); Share price index (period average; eop; internationally consistent basis, period average; internationally consistent basis, eop); World prices agriculture raw materials price; World commodity index price, non-fuel; World copper price (US$ period average; US$ eop); World food price; World gold price (US$ period average; US$ eop); World metals price; World oil price index (Brent crude spot; Brent crude spot, $pb period average; Brent crude spot, $pb eop; Crude oil, Dubai Fateh 32 API); World oil price (real, index; West Texas Intermediate).

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