Global Space Weather Coordination:Perspectives and Activities

Dr. Jack Hayes, U.S. Permanent Representative to the WMO, Assistant Administrator for Weather Services and Director, National Weather Service

Outline

• Our Increasing Vulnerability to Space Weather

• The Need for Global Coordination

• Global Space Weather Hazards

• Available Training and Services

• The Role of the WMO

– HF communication – wireless technology

– Electric power grids

– Satellite-based applications:

– GEO NetCast

– Meteorology observations

– Navigation and communication

– Airline safety:

– Navigation and communication

– Radiation

Increasing Vulnerabilities to Space Weather

• Operating in space is now an integral component of our economic and security infrastructures

• The impacts are global, affecting all regions

• Detecting and predicting space weather threats is a complex challenge – impossible for one nation or agency to address alone

Addressing Space Weather through International Cooperation

• Coordinated ground-based and space-based data and modeling are required over the Sun-Earth system

• WMO has an opportunity to coordinate action to address a growing environmental vulnerability.

Space Weather is Driven by Atmospheric Disturbances from Below and Solar Disturbances from Above

Transformer damage

Failures of GPS based positioning

Polar flights rerouted

NOTAMAirline communication impacts

Oilfield services instrument Interference

SatComm and HF outages

Nuclear power plants reduced power

Widespread HF outage over African continent

SatComm and HF outages

Over 130 hours of HF communication blackout in Anarctic

Japan’s Data Relay Test Satellite safe mode

Space Weather Impacts are Global

Reported impacts from a storm in October, 2003

Strong Customer Growth is Occurring During Quiet Solar Conditions

Air Canada Air China Air New Zealand American Airlines British Airways

Cathay Pacific Airway Korean Air Lufthansa Quantas Airways United Airlines

Examples of global airline customers:

Customer Demand for Space Weather Products in U.S.

2011 March 7 20 UTC

2011 March 8 10:48 UTC

Global Products are Available for HF Radio Communication

X-Ray Flares create HF radio communication outages over the daylight region

Energetic Particles create HF Radio communication outages and increased radiation at high latitudes

HF Communication is critical for:- Commercial Airlines- Humanitarian Operations- Numerous other applications

Ionospheric Disturbances Occur at All Latitudes

Kintner et al., 2009

Ionospheric disturbances create Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) position errors and loss of signal.

Disturbances can last from hours to days.

Frequent

Infrequent

Scintillation Occurrence Frequency

Highest occurrence frequency is at low and high latitudes. During large storms, disturbances extend into mid latitudes.

Expanding GNSS Applications

- Airline navigation systems - Agriculture- Mining operations - Deep-sea drilling- Surveying - Construction

GNSS will continue to increase in importance to all Members

Global Navigation Satellite Service (GNSS) Applications are Growing Rapidly

New Initiative Within the U.S. National Space Weather Program

-Coordinate interagency activities

-Develop the needed science

-Integrate new capabilities into operations

-Jump start near-term efforts to prepare for Solar Maximum

-Establish the partnerships for long-term improvements

Integrated Space Weather Science and Service Program

Educational Resources for Space Weather

- Background information on space weather and its impacts is available

- Additional training resources are planned for development

- All Members can utilize this free information online

- All Members can obtain services from existing service providers, such as www.spaceweather.gov and www.ises-spaceweather.org

http://www.meted.ucar.edu

Online Space Weather Module

The WMO’s Role

-Partner with International Space Environment Service and other relevant entities to optimize capabilities

-Solicit WMO Members who can contribute data products and expertise

- Coordinate training and services within WMO to benefit all Members

- Develop strategy and roadmap to grow capabilities needed to address space weather vulnerabilities proactively

THE POTENTIAL ROLE OF WMO IN SPACE WEATHERA REPORT ON THE POTENTIAL SCOPE, COST AND BENEFIT OF A WMO ACTIVITY IN SUPPORT OF INTERNATIONAL COORDINATION OF SPACE WEATHER SERVICES, PREPARED FOR THE SIXTIETH EXECUTIVE COUNCIL

April 2008