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OECD Steel Committee Meeting, March 25, 2019, ParisGlobal Steel Market Outlook

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Key observations:Mild deceleration in steel demand amid elevated uncertainties

Steel demand in 2018 remained resilient despite volatile

environment 2018 saw rapid deterioration in environment with peaking of cycle, elevated uncertainty

Chinese steel demand showed stable deceleration thanks to boost from mild stimulus on real estate. Some statistical issues

Emerging economies continued to recover, but weaker than expected growth

2019/20 will continue to see deceleration in global steel demand Uncertainties remain escalated, mostly politically driven

Developed economies moderating, still positive growth in EU and US expected

China’s deceleration will be cushioned by stimulus measures

While featuring overall slow growth, the picture of other developing economies seems mixed: resilient Asia vs slowly recovering LA vs troubled Turkey vs muted CIS vs emerging North Africa vs struggling Middle East

Downside risks vs upside risks Deteriorating confidence vs Stimulus 3

Global overviewSteel demand, finished steel (SRO October 2018)

1 595.4 million tonnes, 5.0%/ 2.6%* growth

1 657.9 million tonnes, 3.9%/ 2.1%* growth

1 681.2 million tonnes, 1.4% growth

2017

2018 (forecasts)

2019 (forecasts)

4

*- Series based on Chinese steel using sectors dynamics

db

200520062007200820092010201120122013201420152016201720182019

Austria3.4784.0764.0903.8853.1053.5103.8943.6583.5663.6063.9113.8364.0994.3224.411

Belgium-Luxembourg4.6005.5005.6005.4004.1004.6115.0344.2484.1914.3234.3294.3864.5574.6394.741

Czech Republic5.2355.9706.5686.5364.5065.5206.0635.8505.8656.1956.6156.6957.0437.2547.472

Finland2.1032.3782.5412.3131.5601.4041.1161.9171.7201.7091.7061.7781.8671.9041.942

France14.84216.16016.61915.32810.99813.06514.01312.60812.60912.52512.74112.93813.53613.85014.100

Germany35.25839.22242.72042.36728.20536.23840.71237.49738.01339.64239.26540.45441.00741.19941.900

Hungary2.0232.2412.6492.7301.5331.7771.8881.7061.8632.0862.3432.5382.6592.7982.750

Italy31.63136.44235.93033.28920.07525.65226.55021.51921.90421.92824.48823.73324.64925.59025.854

Netherlands3.5003.6435.2284.7483.0233.5184.0814.0263.7423.4633.6083.9434.5164.5814.641

Poland8.37410.66212.05111.5178.1949.95211.02110.40610.39712.27812.57913.14813.60114.03614.300

Slovak Republic1.4911.9422.2942.1361.3861.8001.8431.8392.0172.1412.2262.2542.4372.5302.638

Slovenia1.0471.2031.3961.2480.8750.8830.9240.8840.8510.8010.8220.8770.9170.9701.020

Spain20.89523.64124.50017.99711.87613.06813.11410.43310.92311.59912.55212.57113.59614.20814.563

Sweden4.1024.4694.8564.3392.5693.6403.8923.5023.5903.3883.3743.8734.1254.1834.183

United Kingdom12.54614.14314.31613.0337.8789.89410.2259.6479.59310.65510.48410.87710.79610.63310.759

Rest of EU (28)16.03919.87121.69019.68711.36712.13312.62210.94311.53712.60912.68813.71313.61413.88914.117

European Union (28)167.164191.563203.048186.553121.249146.664156.992140.683142.380148.948153.731157.614163.017166.584169.391

European Union (15)141.642160.269167.136152.29799.519120.499128.122113.930115.184118.139121.837124.285128.695131.169133.252

Turkey18.44021.22223.77021.45318.02623.56726.93128.46831.30130.77334.38134.07736.05535.22635.754

Rest of Other Europe5.7227.2165.3766.2985.1395.2445.7285.5905.6056.2385.7176.6296.5256.6546.762

Other Europe24.16228.43829.14627.75223.16528.81132.65934.05836.90637.01140.09840.70642.58041.88042.516

Kazakhstan2.3052.3832.9952.3972.6372.1052.2272.7813.4902.7572.6902.3052.6132.6732.823

Russia29.33034.91840.37935.46724.82836.74541.49042.79343.31043.14639.82438.64740.62341.07041.193

Ukraine5.7176.6438.0526.6993.9225.4806.3326.1485.5694.2323.3094.2484.4554.6334.772

Rest of CIS4.4144.9205.5976.1975.7135.8786.0757.3497.7987.5566.5965.7416.3556.4466.501

CIS41.76748.86457.02250.76037.10150.20856.12559.07260.16757.69152.41950.94054.04654.82255.289

Canada16.84318.11815.51114.6759.53114.09014.17115.57514.80015.77513.34415.04516.60517.33017.252

Mexico15.27917.13317.10617.73715.17517.76019.80420.91120.57423.47224.95625.48726.43025.92826.239

United States105.380119.601108.28598.40959.20679.89789.20096.20095.700106.95796.13191.86197.72299.926101.177

NAFTA137.502154.852140.902130.82183.912111.747123.175132.686131.074146.204134.431132.393140.757143.184144.668

Argentina3.7004.4944.6174.7863.2034.6205.3384.8995.0655.0095.2544.2064.9204.9615.069

Brazil16.81218.53522.06024.04818.57626.66926.09426.57328.01825.60621.29118.21719.16920.11521.360

Chile2.0762.3022.3102.5681.7052.3822.7383.0082.7012.6372.7972.7602.7592.7902.860

Colombia2.3812.8232.7602.5582.2332.7993.2183.5063.4883.9544.0323.6603.5603.6513.761

Peru1.0851.3871.5432.1491.5852.4212.4222.6762.7662.9003.4923.2663.6593.7783.905

Venezuela2.4293.2353.6473.4002.6842.2662.6062.9902.8722.0381.8440.7350.5110.5110.511

Rest of C & S America4.1084.5685.6865.8304.3044.7754.9645.4036.7747.1137.3637.0897.1957.3937.592

Central & South America32.59137.34442.62245.33934.29045.93247.38149.05551.68449.25846.07339.93341.77343.20045.058

Algeria2.8233.1032.9093.6974.2773.0633.7874.6445.6416.1735.9905.6885.8135.8836.047

Egypt4.9714.6635.5107.46011.0549.3327.7809.4689.20710.18210.86211.68310.17810.91211.567

Morocco1.5191.4991.4201.8761.7271.6332.7992.6002.7732.5352.7002.8593.0313.1223.246

South Africa4.6775.8685.8076.1264.4565.0015.3325.2665.6895.1175.2944.9704.7064.6904.780

Rest of Africa5.4334.8437.1749.04810.38212.2009.75110.95513.11313.38413.83612.40911.17611.38511.691

Africa19.42319.97622.82028.20731.89631.22929.44932.93336.42337.39138.68237.60934.90435.99137.332

Iran14.01013.78018.30915.04517.54619.69021.12018.97319.79819.88019.72019.10519.95720.45620.456

Saudi Arabia7.4667.8968.4189.61310.00610.72012.00012.54013.30014.10013.50012.20011.83411.96412.263

United Arab Emirates4.9946.4977.71212.0926.2416.6286.8337.0446.8207.1497.1367.8337.9318.0708.069

Rest of the Middle East8.4098.1619.18610.74312.22411.62211.30112.18212.79613.38513.46013.94913.60113.96914.331

Middle East34.87936.33443.62547.49346.01748.66051.25450.73952.71454.51453.81653.08753.32354.45955.119

587.581641.223660.105741.446710.768672.340681.020736.830781.040781.040

China347.472377.664418.426446.861551.443587.581641.223660.105741.446710.768672.340681.020736.830781.040781.040

India39.90045.60051.48251.43857.89264.94069.78872.38373.65275.93180.19883.64388.68095.360102.287

Indonesia7.2356.2457.2458.8237.4208.95010.95212.50012.69212.89811.37512.67313.59314.40815.417

Japan76.73078.99081.18077.95052.79063.57064.10063.95065.24067.69062.95062.17064.38064.50064.800

Malaysia6.8266.7797.6948.4916.6458.3148.2388.92210.04910.07910.00010.2569.4439.63110.017

Philippines3.0763.1613.3973.5553.4343.9995.1086.0086.7057.3258.7609.6779.81910.40811.241

Singapore3.0002.0002.9003.3962.8042.6803.8973.8264.2763.8334.0162.8322.7872.7312.750

South Korea47.12349.83255.20358.57245.41452.39056.39154.06951.76255.52155.80057.07656.40254.10354.725

Taiwan, China19.91019.82018.08016.91011.28017.79018.09617.77718.57119.55817.52718.27717.65217.27417.588

Thailand13.87612.59012.71813.46610.75014.08514.51816.38017.82917.66716.68619.21216.49516.72617.964

Vietnam5.6606.1479.3168.18410.92210.5729.69810.95611.76914.44118.25422.32821.63722.50223.628

Rest of Asia0.0000.0008.6727.2028.1359.32511.89611.72612.43415.42219.58821.39920.73721.78823.172

Asia570.808608.828676.313704.846768.930844.196913.903938.6021026.4251011.133977.4941000.5631058.4541110.4731124.627

Australia6.9006.9007.3377.4265.3416.9666.0246.4585.7576.4496.2915.8495.4416.1946.052

New Zealand0.9400.8900.9300.9000.5600.7350.7000.7370.7690.8430.8080.7560.7880.7310.820

Other Oceania0.0930.1020.1670.2630.2270.2890.6050.5350.3010.2880.3250.3420.3300.3670.364

Oceania7.9337.8928.4348.5896.1297.9907.3297.7306.8277.5807.4246.9476.5597.2927.236

Asia & Oceania578.741616.720684.748713.435775.059852.186921.232946.3321033.2531018.713984.9181007.5101065.0131117.7651131.863

3.0002.0000.000

World1036.2301134.0911223.9321230.3601152.6891315.4361418.2681445.5571544.6011549.7301504.1681519.7931595.4121657.8861681.235

World excl. China688.758756.427805.507783.499601.246727.855777.045785.452803.155838.962831.828838.773858.582876.846900.195

BRIC433.514476.717532.346557.814652.739715.935778.595801.855886.426855.451813.653821.527885.301937.584945.879

MENA44.78646.17054.36961.45964.49463.56264.72167.27170.45173.49872.94772.56771.73873.73875.344

Developed Economies434.228473.368473.768446.569298.051372.353395.287386.893387.074410.838395.751395.076407.245411.158416.122

Emerging & Developing Economies (world-advances)602.002660.723750.165783.791854.638943.0831022.9821058.6651157.5271138.8921108.4171124.7171188.1671246.7271265.113

Emerging & Developing Economies (world-advances) excl. China254.530283.059331.739336.930303.195355.502381.759398.560416.081428.124436.077443.697451.337465.687484.073

World excl. BRIC602.715657.374691.586672.546499.950599.501639.673643.703658.175694.279690.515698.266710.110720.302735.356

Developing Asia420.153454.525516.438546.174655.055705.969769.662797.124884.303861.985833.675857.189915.045969.688982.526

Developing Asia excl. China72.68176.86198.01399.313103.612118.388128.439137.019142.857151.217161.335176.169178.215188.649201.486

ASEAN (5)36.67334.92240.37042.51839.17245.92048.51354.76659.04462.41065.07674.14770.98773.67778.266

Developed Asia150.655154.303159.875158.673113.875138.227144.241141.478142.122149.148143.819143.374143.409140.785142.102

Northern Europe82.95592.67599.12794.09062.71577.35384.78978.93578.84381.20481.43884.19486.65087.49988.900

Southern Europe58.68867.59468.00958.20736.80443.14643.33234.99536.34036.93540.39940.09142.04543.67144.352

Middle East excl. Iran20.86922.55425.31632.44828.47128.97030.13431.76632.91634.63434.09633.98233.36634.00334.663

MENA excl. Iran30.77632.39036.06046.41446.94843.87243.60148.29850.65353.61853.22753.46251.78153.28254.888

GCC14.84616.92118.92925.74419.45420.83421.93723.05124.08925.72225.30924.62824.30724.73125.208

Sub-Saharan Africa excl. South Africa4.8946.6587.3949.5648.6198.95810.56410.67611.3319.8938.6588.8319.096

World excl. China and EU521.594564.864602.459596.946479.997581.191620.053644.770660.775690.015678.097681.159695.565710.262730.805

European Union (13)25.52182631.29346535.91219934.25596821.73002626.16497928.8705726.752898327.19631630.809226631.893854233.329187434.322440735.414445729736.1388784287

The Pacific Alliance (excl. Mexico)5.5426.5126.61294998787.27465231215.5228847.6023928.3787049.18963088.9559.49110.3219.68593159.9779810.219030710.5255616

Mercosur23.23626.58430.53432.434268529324.70458133.91858834.49444534.926740836.41414433.118719428.857149923.661560425.099464226.233523827.6056054

North Africa11.5969911.2433412.1181415.42320.0458916.66415.497618.708620.1700521.5970522.05722.74621.53930622.46978323.455293

Sub-Saharan Africa10.70147812.78431111.84986914.56457713.9514714.22441516.25259115.79359116.62508114.86312713.36437613.521677313.876215619

presentation

2017

1,595.4million tonnes,5.0%/ 2.6%*growth

2018 (forecasts)

1,657.9million tonnes,3.9%/ 2.1%*growth

2019 (forecasts)

1,681.2million tonnes,1.4%growth

Regional summarySteel demand, finished steel (SRO October 2018)

5

-8-6-4-202468

10

EuropeanUnion (28)

Other Europe CIS NAFTA Central &South

America

Africa Middle East DevelopedAsia

DevelopingAsia excl.

China

China World

% 2017* 2018* 2019

2019 (Mt):

169.4 42.5 55.3 144.7 45.1 37.3 55.1 142.1 781.0 1 681.2201.5


2017 2018 2019 17/16 18/17 19/18 2019 as % of 2007

World 1 595.4 1 657.9 1 681.2 5.0/ 2.6* 3.9/ 2.1* 1.4 137.4

Developed Economies 407.2 411.2 416.1 3.1 1.0 1.2 87.8Emerging & Developing Economies excl. China

451.3 465.7 484.1 1.7 3.2 3.9 145.9

China 736.8 781.0 781.0 8.2/ 3.0* 6.0/ 2.0* 0.0 186.7

Mt %

db

200520062007200820092010201120122013201420152016201720182019

Austria3.4784.0764.0903.8853.1053.5103.8943.6583.5663.6063.9113.8364.0994.3224.411


Czech Republic5.2355.9706.5686.5364.5065.5206.0635.8505.8656.1956.6156.6957.0437.2547.472

Finland2.1032.3782.5412.3131.5601.4041.1161.9171.7201.7091.7061.7781.8671.9041.942

France14.84216.16016.61915.32810.99813.06514.01312.60812.60912.52512.74112.93813.53613.85014.100

Germany35.25839.22242.72042.36728.20536.23840.71237.49738.01339.64239.26540.45441.00741.19941.900

Hungary2.0232.2412.6492.7301.5331.7771.8881.7061.8632.0862.3432.5382.6592.7982.750

Italy31.63136.44235.93033.28920.07525.65226.55021.51921.90421.92824.48823.73324.64925.59025.854

Netherlands3.5003.6435.2284.7483.0233.5184.0814.0263.7423.4633.6083.9434.5164.5814.641

Poland8.37410.66212.05111.5178.1949.95211.02110.40610.39712.27812.57913.14813.60114.03614.300

Slovak Republic1.4911.9422.2942.1361.3861.8001.8431.8392.0172.1412.2262.2542.4372.5302.638

Slovenia1.0471.2031.3961.2480.8750.8830.9240.8840.8510.8010.8220.8770.9170.9701.020

Spain20.89523.64124.50017.99711.87613.06813.11410.43310.92311.59912.55212.57113.59614.20814.563

Sweden4.1024.4694.8564.3392.5693.6403.8923.5023.5903.3883.3743.8734.1254.1834.183

United Kingdom12.54614.14314.31613.0337.8789.89410.2259.6479.59310.65510.48410.87710.79610.63310.759

Rest of EU (28)16.03919.87121.69019.68711.36712.13312.62210.94311.53712.60912.68813.71313.61413.88914.117

European Union (28)167.164191.563203.048186.553121.249146.664156.992140.683142.380148.948153.731157.614163.017166.584169.391

European Union (15)141.642160.269167.136152.29799.519120.499128.122113.930115.184118.139121.837124.285128.695131.169133.252

Turkey18.44021.22223.77021.45318.02623.56726.93128.46831.30130.77334.38134.07736.05535.22635.754


Other Europe24.16228.43829.14627.75223.16528.81132.65934.05836.90637.01140.09840.70642.58041.88042.516

Kazakhstan2.3052.3832.9952.3972.6372.1052.2272.7813.4902.7572.6902.3052.6132.6732.823

Russia29.33034.91840.37935.46724.82836.74541.49042.79343.31043.14639.82438.64740.62341.07041.193

Ukraine5.7176.6438.0526.6993.9225.4806.3326.1485.5694.2323.3094.2484.4554.6334.772

Rest of CIS4.4144.9205.5976.1975.7135.8786.0757.3497.7987.5566.5965.7416.3556.4466.501

CIS41.76748.86457.02250.76037.10150.20856.12559.07260.16757.69152.41950.94054.04654.82255.289

Canada16.84318.11815.51114.6759.53114.09014.17115.57514.80015.77513.34415.04516.60517.33017.252

Mexico15.27917.13317.10617.73715.17517.76019.80420.91120.57423.47224.95625.48726.43025.92826.239

United States105.380119.601108.28598.40959.20679.89789.20096.20095.700106.95796.13191.86197.72299.926101.177

NAFTA137.502154.852140.902130.82183.912111.747123.175132.686131.074146.204134.431132.393140.757143.184144.668

Argentina3.7004.4944.6174.7863.2034.6205.3384.8995.0655.0095.2544.2064.9204.9615.069

Brazil16.81218.53522.06024.04818.57626.66926.09426.57328.01825.60621.29118.21719.16920.11521.360

Chile2.0762.3022.3102.5681.7052.3822.7383.0082.7012.6372.7972.7602.7592.7902.860

Colombia2.3812.8232.7602.5582.2332.7993.2183.5063.4883.9544.0323.6603.5603.6513.761

Peru1.0851.3871.5432.1491.5852.4212.4222.6762.7662.9003.4923.2663.6593.7783.905

Venezuela2.4293.2353.6473.4002.6842.2662.6062.9902.8722.0381.8440.7350.5110.5110.511



Algeria2.8233.1032.9093.6974.2773.0633.7874.6445.6416.1735.9905.6885.8135.8836.047

Egypt4.9714.6635.5107.46011.0549.3327.7809.4689.20710.18210.86211.68310.17810.91211.567

Morocco1.5191.4991.4201.8761.7271.6332.7992.6002.7732.5352.7002.8593.0313.1223.246

South Africa4.6775.8685.8076.1264.4565.0015.3325.2665.6895.1175.2944.9704.7064.6904.780

Rest of Africa5.4334.8437.1749.04810.38212.2009.75110.95513.11313.38413.83612.40911.17611.38511.691

Africa19.42319.97622.82028.20731.89631.22929.44932.93336.42337.39138.68237.60934.90435.99137.332

Iran14.01013.78018.30915.04517.54619.69021.12018.97319.79819.88019.72019.10519.95720.45620.456

Saudi Arabia7.4667.8968.4189.61310.00610.72012.00012.54013.30014.10013.50012.20011.83411.96412.263



Middle East34.87936.33443.62547.49346.01748.66051.25450.73952.71454.51453.81653.08753.32354.45955.119

587.581641.223660.105741.446710.768672.340681.020736.830781.040781.040

China347.472377.664418.426446.861551.443587.581641.223660.105741.446710.768672.340681.020736.830781.040781.040

India39.90045.60051.48251.43857.89264.94069.78872.38373.65275.93180.19883.64388.68095.360102.287

Indonesia7.2356.2457.2458.8237.4208.95010.95212.50012.69212.89811.37512.67313.59314.40815.417

Japan76.73078.99081.18077.95052.79063.57064.10063.95065.24067.69062.95062.17064.38064.50064.800

Malaysia6.8266.7797.6948.4916.6458.3148.2388.92210.04910.07910.00010.2569.4439.63110.017

Philippines3.0763.1613.3973.5553.4343.9995.1086.0086.7057.3258.7609.6779.81910.40811.241

Singapore3.0002.0002.9003.3962.8042.6803.8973.8264.2763.8334.0162.8322.7872.7312.750

South Korea47.12349.83255.20358.57245.41452.39056.39154.06951.76255.52155.80057.07656.40254.10354.725

Taiwan, China19.91019.82018.08016.91011.28017.79018.09617.77718.57119.55817.52718.27717.65217.27417.588

Thailand13.87612.59012.71813.46610.75014.08514.51816.38017.82917.66716.68619.21216.49516.72617.964

Vietnam5.6606.1479.3168.18410.92210.5729.69810.95611.76914.44118.25422.32821.63722.50223.628

Rest of Asia0.0000.0008.6727.2028.1359.32511.89611.72612.43415.42219.58821.39920.73721.78823.172

Asia570.808608.828676.313704.846768.930844.196913.903938.6021,026.4251,011.133977.4941,000.5631,058.4541,110.4731,124.627

Australia6.9006.9007.3377.4265.3416.9666.0246.4585.7576.4496.2915.8495.4416.1946.052

New Zealand0.9400.8900.9300.9000.5600.7350.7000.7370.7690.8430.8080.7560.7880.7310.820

Other Oceania0.0930.1020.1670.2630.2270.2890.6050.5350.3010.2880.3250.3420.3300.3670.364

Oceania7.9337.8928.4348.5896.1297.9907.3297.7306.8277.5807.4246.9476.5597.2927.236

Asia & Oceania578.741616.720684.748713.435775.059852.186921.232946.3321,033.2531,018.713984.9181,007.5101,065.0131,117.7651,131.863

3.0002.0000.000

World1,036.2301,134.0911,223.9321,230.3601,152.6891,315.4361,418.2681,445.5571,544.6011,549.7301,504.1681,519.7931,595.4121,657.8861,681.235

World excl. China688.758756.427805.507783.499601.246727.855777.045785.452803.155838.962831.828838.773858.582876.846900.195

BRIC433.514476.717532.346557.814652.739715.935778.595801.855886.426855.451813.653821.527885.301937.584945.879

MENA44.78646.17054.36961.45964.49463.56264.72167.27170.45173.49872.94772.56771.73873.73875.344


Emerging & Developing Economies (world-advances)602.002660.723750.165783.791854.638943.0831,022.9821,058.6651,157.5271,138.8921,108.4171,124.7171,188.1671,246.7271,265.113


World excl. BRIC602.715657.374691.586672.546499.950599.501639.673643.703658.175694.279690.515698.266710.110720.302735.356

Developing Asia420.153454.525516.438546.174655.055705.969769.662797.124884.303861.985833.675857.189915.045969.688982.526


ASEAN (5)36.67334.92240.37042.51839.17245.92048.51354.76659.04462.41065.07674.14770.98773.67778.266

Developed Asia150.655154.303159.875158.673113.875138.227144.241141.478142.122149.148143.819143.374143.409140.785142.102

Northern Europe82.95592.67599.12794.09062.71577.35384.78978.93578.84381.20481.43884.19486.65087.49988.900

Southern Europe58.68867.59468.00958.20736.80443.14643.33234.99536.34036.93540.39940.09142.04543.67144.352


MENA excl. Iran30.77632.39036.06046.41446.94843.87243.60148.29850.65353.61853.22753.46251.78153.28254.888

GCC14.84616.92118.92925.74419.45420.83421.93723.05124.08925.72225.30924.62824.30724.73125.208



European Union (13)25.52231.29335.91234.25621.73026.16528.87126.75327.19630.80931.89433.32934.32235.41436.139


Mercosur23.23626.58430.53432.43424.70533.91934.49434.92736.41433.11928.85723.66225.09926.23427.606

North Africa11.59711.24312.11815.42320.04616.66415.49818.70920.17021.59722.05722.74621.53922.47023.455


presentation

Mt%

20172018201917/1618/1719/182019 as % of 2007

World1,595.41,657.91,681.25.0/ 2.6*3.9/ 2.1*1.4137.4

Developed Economies407.2411.2416.13.11.01.287.8

Emerging & Developing Economies excl. China451.3465.7484.11.73.23.9145.9

China736.8781.0781.08.2/ 3.0*6.0/ 2.0*0.0186.7

Developments in China Mt %2017 2018 2019 17/16 18/17 19/18 2019 as % of 2007

World 1 595.4 1 657.9 1 681.2 5.0/ 2.6* 3.9/ 2.1* 1.4 137.4China 736.8 781.0 781.0 8.2/ 3.0* 6.0/ 2.0* 0.0 186.7


In 2018, despite decelerating economy and poor industrial performance, mild stimulus on real estate supported steel demand, but not as high as nominal growth rate suggests.

In 2019, stimulus measures to finetune the economy are expected to boost steel demand. Upside risk from the effect of stimulus is noted.

China Steel Using Sectors Index

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

6.0%

7.0%

8.0%

9.0%

10.0%

2011

Q1

2011

Q2

2011

Q3

2011

Q4

2012

Q1

2012

Q2

2012

Q3

2012

Q4

2013

Q1

2013

Q2

2013

Q3

2013

Q4

2014

Q1

2014

Q2

2014

Q3

2014

Q4

2015

Q1

2015

Q2

2015

Q3

2015

Q4

2016

Q1

2016

Q2

2016

Q3

2016

Q4

2017

Q1

2017

Q2

2017

Q3

2017

Q4

2018

Q1

2018

Q2

2018

Q3

2018

Q4

GDP & FAI Growth

GDP(LHS)

Steel demand, finished steel (SRO October 2018)

6

db

200520062007200820092010201120122013201420152016201720182019

Austria3.4784.0764.0903.8853.1053.5103.8943.6583.5663.6063.9113.8364.0994.3224.411


Czech Republic5.2355.9706.5686.5364.5065.5206.0635.8505.8656.1956.6156.6957.0437.2547.472

Finland2.1032.3782.5412.3131.5601.4041.1161.9171.7201.7091.7061.7781.8671.9041.942

France14.84216.16016.61915.32810.99813.06514.01312.60812.60912.52512.74112.93813.53613.85014.100

Germany35.25839.22242.72042.36728.20536.23840.71237.49738.01339.64239.26540.45441.00741.19941.900

Hungary2.0232.2412.6492.7301.5331.7771.8881.7061.8632.0862.3432.5382.6592.7982.750

Italy31.63136.44235.93033.28920.07525.65226.55021.51921.90421.92824.48823.73324.64925.59025.854

Netherlands3.5003.6435.2284.7483.0233.5184.0814.0263.7423.4633.6083.9434.5164.5814.641

Poland8.37410.66212.05111.5178.1949.95211.02110.40610.39712.27812.57913.14813.60114.03614.300

Slovak Republic1.4911.9422.2942.1361.3861.8001.8431.8392.0172.1412.2262.2542.4372.5302.638

Slovenia1.0471.2031.3961.2480.8750.8830.9240.8840.8510.8010.8220.8770.9170.9701.020

Spain20.89523.64124.50017.99711.87613.06813.11410.43310.92311.59912.55212.57113.59614.20814.563

Sweden4.1024.4694.8564.3392.5693.6403.8923.5023.5903.3883.3743.8734.1254.1834.183

United Kingdom12.54614.14314.31613.0337.8789.89410.2259.6479.59310.65510.48410.87710.79610.63310.759

Rest of EU (28)16.03919.87121.69019.68711.36712.13312.62210.94311.53712.60912.68813.71313.61413.88914.117

European Union (28)167.164191.563203.048186.553121.249146.664156.992140.683142.380148.948153.731157.614163.017166.584169.391

European Union (15)141.642160.269167.136152.29799.519120.499128.122113.930115.184118.139121.837124.285128.695131.169133.252

Turkey18.44021.22223.77021.45318.02623.56726.93128.46831.30130.77334.38134.07736.05535.22635.754


Other Europe24.16228.43829.14627.75223.16528.81132.65934.05836.90637.01140.09840.70642.58041.88042.516

Kazakhstan2.3052.3832.9952.3972.6372.1052.2272.7813.4902.7572.6902.3052.6132.6732.823

Russia29.33034.91840.37935.46724.82836.74541.49042.79343.31043.14639.82438.64740.62341.07041.193

Ukraine5.7176.6438.0526.6993.9225.4806.3326.1485.5694.2323.3094.2484.4554.6334.772

Rest of CIS4.4144.9205.5976.1975.7135.8786.0757.3497.7987.5566.5965.7416.3556.4466.501

CIS41.76748.86457.02250.76037.10150.20856.12559.07260.16757.69152.41950.94054.04654.82255.289

Canada16.84318.11815.51114.6759.53114.09014.17115.57514.80015.77513.34415.04516.60517.33017.252

Mexico15.27917.13317.10617.73715.17517.76019.80420.91120.57423.47224.95625.48726.43025.92826.239

United States105.380119.601108.28598.40959.20679.89789.20096.20095.700106.95796.13191.86197.72299.926101.177

NAFTA137.502154.852140.902130.82183.912111.747123.175132.686131.074146.204134.431132.393140.757143.184144.668

Argentina3.7004.4944.6174.7863.2034.6205.3384.8995.0655.0095.2544.2064.9204.9615.069

Brazil16.81218.53522.06024.04818.57626.66926.09426.57328.01825.60621.29118.21719.16920.11521.360

Chile2.0762.3022.3102.5681.7052.3822.7383.0082.7012.6372.7972.7602.7592.7902.860

Colombia2.3812.8232.7602.5582.2332.7993.2183.5063.4883.9544.0323.6603.5603.6513.761

Peru1.0851.3871.5432.1491.5852.4212.4222.6762.7662.9003.4923.2663.6593.7783.905

Venezuela2.4293.2353.6473.4002.6842.2662.6062.9902.8722.0381.8440.7350.5110.5110.511



Algeria2.8233.1032.9093.6974.2773.0633.7874.6445.6416.1735.9905.6885.8135.8836.047

Egypt4.9714.6635.5107.46011.0549.3327.7809.4689.20710.18210.86211.68310.17810.91211.567

Morocco1.5191.4991.4201.8761.7271.6332.7992.6002.7732.5352.7002.8593.0313.1223.246

South Africa4.6775.8685.8076.1264.4565.0015.3325.2665.6895.1175.2944.9704.7064.6904.780

Rest of Africa5.4334.8437.1749.04810.38212.2009.75110.95513.11313.38413.83612.40911.17611.38511.691

Africa19.42319.97622.82028.20731.89631.22929.44932.93336.42337.39138.68237.60934.90435.99137.332

Iran14.01013.78018.30915.04517.54619.69021.12018.97319.79819.88019.72019.10519.95720.45620.456

Saudi Arabia7.4667.8968.4189.61310.00610.72012.00012.54013.30014.10013.50012.20011.83411.96412.263



Middle East34.87936.33443.62547.49346.01748.66051.25450.73952.71454.51453.81653.08753.32354.45955.119

587.581641.223660.105741.446710.768672.340681.020736.830781.040781.040

China347.472377.664418.426446.861551.443587.581641.223660.105741.446710.768672.340681.020736.830781.040781.040

India39.90045.60051.48251.43857.89264.94069.78872.38373.65275.93180.19883.64388.68095.360102.287

Indonesia7.2356.2457.2458.8237.4208.95010.95212.50012.69212.89811.37512.67313.59314.40815.417

Japan76.73078.99081.18077.95052.79063.57064.10063.95065.24067.69062.95062.17064.38064.50064.800

Malaysia6.8266.7797.6948.4916.6458.3148.2388.92210.04910.07910.00010.2569.4439.63110.017

Philippines3.0763.1613.3973.5553.4343.9995.1086.0086.7057.3258.7609.6779.81910.40811.241

Singapore3.0002.0002.9003.3962.8042.6803.8973.8264.2763.8334.0162.8322.7872.7312.750

South Korea47.12349.83255.20358.57245.41452.39056.39154.06951.76255.52155.80057.07656.40254.10354.725

Taiwan, China19.91019.82018.08016.91011.28017.79018.09617.77718.57119.55817.52718.27717.65217.27417.588

Thailand13.87612.59012.71813.46610.75014.08514.51816.38017.82917.66716.68619.21216.49516.72617.964

Vietnam5.6606.1479.3168.18410.92210.5729.69810.95611.76914.44118.25422.32821.63722.50223.628

Rest of Asia0.0000.0008.6727.2028.1359.32511.89611.72612.43415.42219.58821.39920.73721.78823.172

Asia570.808608.828676.313704.846768.930844.196913.903938.6021,026.4251,011.133977.4941,000.5631,058.4541,110.4731,124.627

Australia6.9006.9007.3377.4265.3416.9666.0246.4585.7576.4496.2915.8495.4416.1946.052

New Zealand0.9400.8900.9300.9000.5600.7350.7000.7370.7690.8430.8080.7560.7880.7310.820

Other Oceania0.0930.1020.1670.2630.2270.2890.6050.5350.3010.2880.3250.3420.3300.3670.364

Oceania7.9337.8928.4348.5896.1297.9907.3297.7306.8277.5807.4246.9476.5597.2927.236

Asia & Oceania578.741616.720684.748713.435775.059852.186921.232946.3321,033.2531,018.713984.9181,007.5101,065.0131,117.7651,131.863

3.0002.0000.000

World1,036.2301,134.0911,223.9321,230.3601,152.6891,315.4361,418.2681,445.5571,544.6011,549.7301,504.1681,519.7931,595.4121,657.8861,681.235

World excl. China688.758756.427805.507783.499601.246727.855777.045785.452803.155838.962831.828838.773858.582876.846900.195

BRIC433.514476.717532.346557.814652.739715.935778.595801.855886.426855.451813.653821.527885.301937.584945.879

MENA44.78646.17054.36961.45964.49463.56264.72167.27170.45173.49872.94772.56771.73873.73875.344


Emerging & Developing Economies (world-advances)602.002660.723750.165783.791854.638943.0831,022.9821,058.6651,157.5271,138.8921,108.4171,124.7171,188.1671,246.7271,265.113


World excl. BRIC602.715657.374691.586672.546499.950599.501639.673643.703658.175694.279690.515698.266710.110720.302735.356

Developing Asia420.153454.525516.438546.174655.055705.969769.662797.124884.303861.985833.675857.189915.045969.688982.526


ASEAN (5)36.67334.92240.37042.51839.17245.92048.51354.76659.04462.41065.07674.14770.98773.67778.266

Developed Asia150.655154.303159.875158.673113.875138.227144.241141.478142.122149.148143.819143.374143.409140.785142.102

Northern Europe82.95592.67599.12794.09062.71577.35384.78978.93578.84381.20481.43884.19486.65087.49988.900

Southern Europe58.68867.59468.00958.20736.80443.14643.33234.99536.34036.93540.39940.09142.04543.67144.352


MENA excl. Iran30.77632.39036.06046.41446.94843.87243.60148.29850.65353.61853.22753.46251.78153.28254.888

GCC14.84616.92118.92925.74419.45420.83421.93723.05124.08925.72225.30924.62824.30724.73125.208



European Union (13)25.52231.29335.91234.25621.73026.16528.87126.75327.19630.80931.89433.32934.32235.41436.139


Mercosur23.23626.58430.53432.43424.70533.91934.49434.92736.41433.11928.85723.66225.09926.23427.606

North Africa11.59711.24312.11815.42320.04616.66415.49818.70920.17021.59722.05722.74621.53922.47023.455


presentation

Mt%

20172018201917/1618/1719/182019 as % of 2007

World1,595.41,657.91,681.25.0/ 2.6*3.9/ 2.1*1.4137.4

China736.8781.0781.08.2/ 3.0*6.0/ 2.0*0.0186.7

Developments in key regions (1/4) Asia India (October 2018 SRO for 2018&19: 7.5% & 7.3%)

The Indian economy is returning to faster growth overcoming the twin shocks of demonetization and GST. Steel demand will be supported by plentiful infrastructure projects, strong consumption and recovery of private investment.

ASEAN 5: (October 2018 SRO for 2018&19: 3.8% & 6.2%)After a contraction in 2017 due to stock building and delay of construction projects, ASEAN steel demand resumed high growth in 2018 backed by infrastructure development and industrial growth. Outlook for 2018/19 remains strong. Elections, deceleration of the global economy and trade tensions raise challenges.

Japan: (October 2018 SRO for 2018&19: 0.2% & 0.5%)Steel demand got boost from favorable investment environment and public projects and the effect of consumption tax in 2018, but outlook will weaken as these effects fade and export environment worsens.

Korea: (October 2018 SRO for 2018&19: -4.1% & 1.1%)Steel demand contraction is expected due to weak steel using sector activities, in particular auto and shipbuilding. Toughened real estate measures and deteriorating trade environment will put additional pressure on steel demand despite some recovery in shipbuilding.

7

Developments in key regions (2/4) EU (October 2018 SRO for 2018&19: 2.2% & 1.7% ) EU economy which passed the peak of business cycle during 2018 gets additional

pressure from trade tensions and Brexit uncertainties. Industrial production is decelerating sharply especially in export dependent economies. Investment and construction is also expected to moderate with falling confidence.

NAFTA US (October 2018 SRO for 2018&19: 2.3% & 1.3% )

US economy is likely to decelerate in 2019/20 to potential growth, with the effect of fiscal stimulus fading. Steel demand growth is expected to decelerate in 2019/20 with most steel using sectors slowing down. Investment in the energy sector is also expected to decelerate. Mexico (October 2018 SRO for 2018&19 : -1.9% & 1.2% )

In 2018, uncertainties surrounding the NAFTA renegotiation and the election took toll on Mexican steel demand with declining auto production. Weak mining investment, fiscal budget constraint and slowing US economy along with policy uncertainties are likely to continue to constrain Mexico’s steel demand in 2019/20.

8

Developments in key regions (3/4) South America Broadly shared recovery of South American economies is taking place despite

deteriorating external environment, but faces policy uncertainties.

Brazil (October 2018 SRO for 2018&19 : 4.9% & 6.2% )

Despite the disruptions from the truckers’ strike, recovery in steel demand continued in 2018. Despite uncertainties on reform policies, confidence is high and construction sector is expected to recover to support continued recovery in 2019&20.

CIS and Other Europe Russia (October 2018 SRO for 2018&19 : -1.1% & 0.3% )

Steady recovery in steel demand continues, but at a slow speed, due to structural issues and geopolitical tensions.

Turkey (October 2018 SRO for 2018&19 : -2.3% & 1.5% )

Currency crisis of August 2018 continues drag down the economy and 2019 will continue to see contraction of steel demand.

9

Developments in key regions (4/4) MENA

GCC (October 2018 SRO for 2018&19 : 1.7% & 1.9% )

While economic diversification continues, fiscal consolidation continues to constrain steel demand with scaled down construction projects .

North Africa (October 2018 SRO for 2018&19 : -1.9% & 1.2% )

Outlook for North Africa improves, with recovery in oil price, infrastructure projects and investment friendly policies. Egypt is expected to rebound strongly with improved fundamentals following structural reforms and infrastructure spending on energy and housing development

Iran (October 2018 SRO for 2018&19 : 2.5% & 0% )

Reinstatement of US sanctions weakens the economy and hence steel demand outlook.

10

Revisions from October 2018 forecastsSteel demand, finished steel (October 2018 and April 2019)

Mt % Mt ∆ growth rate ∆ accel.

2018 2019 2018 2019 2018 2019 2018 2019 20/19

World 1 657.9 1 681.2 3.9/ 2.1* 1.4EU (28) 166.6 169.4 2.2 1.7Other Europe 41.9 42.5 -1.6 1.5CIS 54.8 55.3 1.4 0.9NAFTA 143.2 144.7 1.7 1.0C&S America 43.2 45.1 3.4 4.3Africa 36.0 37.3 3.1 3.7Middle East 54.5 55.1 2.1 1.2Asia & Oceania 1 117.8 1 131.9 5.0 1.3

China 781.0 781.0 6.0/ 2.0* 0.0Developing Asia excl. China

188.6 201.5 5.9 6.8

Developed Asia 140.8 142.1 -1.8 0.9

SRO October 2018 SRO April 2019

11


*

*

db

201420152016201720182019

Austria3.6063.9113.8364.0994.3224.4106

Belgium-Luxembourg4.3234.3294.3864.5574.6394.741141

Czech Republic6.1956.6156.6957.0437.2547.472067

Finland1.7091.7061.7781.8671.9041.942

France12.52512.74112.93813.53613.85014.1

Germany39.64239.26540.45441.00741.19941.9

Hungary2.0862.3432.5382.6592.7982.75

Italy21.92824.48823.73324.64925.59025.854369

Netherlands3.4633.6083.9434.5164.5814.6408204

Poland12.27812.57913.14813.60114.03614.3

Slovak Republic2.1412.2262.2542.4372.5302.638418

Slovenia0.8010.8220.8770.9170.9701.02

Spain11.59912.55212.57113.59614.20814.563016

Sweden3.3883.3743.8734.1254.1834.1825542

United Kingdom10.65510.48410.87710.79610.63310.7589279

Rest of EU (28)12.60912.68813.71313.61413.88914.1167805556

European Union (28)148.948153.731157.614163.017166.584169.3906940556

European Union (15)118.139121.837124.285128.695131.169133.251815627

Turkey30.77334.38134.07736.05535.22635.754

Rest of Other Europe6.2385.7176.6296.5256.6546.7617965915

Other Europe37.01140.09840.70642.58041.88042.5157965915

Kazakhstan2.7572.6902.3052.6132.6732.82332507

Russia43.14639.82438.64740.62341.07041.192794

Ukraine4.2323.3094.2484.4554.6334.7719839

Rest of CIS7.5566.5965.7416.3556.4466.5011039596

CIS57.69152.41950.94054.04654.82255.2892069296

Canada15.77513.34415.04516.60517.33017.252

Mexico23.47224.95625.48726.43025.92826.2389079

United States106.95796.13191.86197.72299.926101.177

NAFTA146.204134.431132.393140.757143.184144.6679079

Argentina5.0095.2544.2064.9204.9615.0688

Brazil25.60621.29118.21719.16920.11521.36

Chile2.6372.7972.7602.7592.7902.86

Colombia3.9544.0323.6603.5603.6513.7605616

Peru2.9003.4923.2663.6593.7783.905

Venezuela2.0381.8440.7350.5110.5110.5113705

Rest of C & S America7.1137.3637.0897.1957.3937.5924534812

Central & South America49.25846.07339.93341.77343.20045.0581855812

Algeria6.1735.9905.6885.8135.8836.047473

Egypt10.18210.86211.68310.17810.91211.56672

Morocco2.5352.7002.8593.0313.1223.246443

South Africa5.1175.2944.9704.7064.6904.78

Rest of Africa13.38413.83612.40911.17611.38511.690872619

Africa37.39138.68237.60934.90435.99137.331508619

Iran19.88019.72019.10519.95720.45620.455925

Saudi Arabia14.10013.50012.20011.83411.96412.263

United Arab Emirates7.1497.1367.8337.9318.0708.069

Rest of the Middle East13.38513.46013.94913.60113.96914.3306437089

Middle East54.51453.81653.08753.32354.45955.1185687089

710.768672.340681.020736.830781.040781.0398

China710.768672.340681.020736.830781.040781.0398

India75.93180.19883.64388.68095.360102.286619

Indonesia12.89811.37512.67313.59314.40815.416936

Japan67.69062.95062.17064.38064.50064.8

Malaysia10.07910.00010.2569.4439.63110.016731

Philippines7.3258.7609.6779.81910.40811.241053

Singapore3.8334.0162.8322.7872.7312.75

South Korea55.52155.80057.07656.40254.10354.725

Taiwan, China19.55817.52718.27717.65217.27417.588

Thailand17.66716.68619.21216.49516.72617.963952

Vietnam14.44118.25422.32821.63722.50223.627604

Rest of Asia15.42219.58821.39920.73721.78823.171749339

Asia1011.133977.4941000.5631058.4541110.4731124.6274443391

Australia6.4496.2915.8495.4416.1946.0519186

New Zealand0.8430.8080.7560.7880.7310.82

Other Oceania0.2880.3250.3420.3300.3670.363892857

Oceania7.5807.4246.9476.5597.2927.235811457

Asia & Oceania1018.713984.9181007.5101065.0131117.7651131.8632557961

3.0002.0000

World1549.7301504.1681519.7931595.4121657.8861681.2351241819

World excl. China838.962831.828838.773858.582876.846900.1953241819

BRIC855.451813.653821.527885.301937.584945.879213

MENA73.49872.94772.56771.73873.73875.344313

Developed Economies410.838395.751395.076407.245411.158416.1218772662

Emerging & Developing Economies (world-advances)1138.8921108.4171124.7171188.1671246.7271265.1132469158

Emerging & Developing Economies (world-advances) excl. China428.124436.077443.697451.337465.687484.0734469158

World excl. BRIC694.279690.515698.266710.110720.302735.3559111819

Developing Asia861.985833.675857.189915.045969.688982.5258562915

Developing Asia excl. China151.217161.335176.169178.215188.649201.4860562915

ASEAN (5)62.41065.07674.14770.98773.67778.266276

Developed Asia149.148143.819143.374143.409140.785142.1015880475

Northern Europe81.203853581.437681284.19369977786.65087.49988.8997940677

Southern Europe36.93464940.39918840.09131242.04543.67144.3520215593

Middle East excl. Iran34.634037334.09602533.98192433.36634.00334.6626437089

MENA excl. Iran53.618318353.22680353.46214151.78153.28254.888388

GCC25.722418325.30852824.628324.30724.73125.207777

Sub-Saharan Africa excl. South Africa10.67624911.3312289.8930428.6588.8319.096215619

World excl. China and EU690.01476384678.09749545681.15896133695.565710.262730.8046301263

European Union (13)30.809226631.893854233.329187434.32235.41436.1388784287

The Pacific Alliance (excl. Mexico)9.49110.3219.68593159.97810.21910.5255616

Mercosur33.118719428.857149923.661560425.09926.23427.6056054

North Africa21.5970522.05722.74621.53922.47023.455293

Sub-Saharan Africa15.79359116.62508114.86312713.36413.52213.876215619

presentation

Mt%Mt ∆growth rate ∆accel.

2018201920182019201820192018201920/19

SRO October 2018SRO April 2019

World1,657.91,681.2!3.9/ 2.1*1.4

EU (28)166.6169.42.21.7

Other Europe41.942.5-1.61.5

CIS54.855.31.40.9

NAFTA143.2144.71.71.0

C&S America43.245.13.44.3

Africa36.037.33.13.7

Middle East54.555.12.11.2

Asia & Oceania1,117.81,131.95.01.3

China781.0781.06.0/ 2.0*0.0

Developing Asia excl. China188.6201.55.96.8

Developed Asia140.8142.1-1.80.9

Long term steel demand outlook

12

Global steel demand expected to grow, very slowly Shift in global economic & political environment + megatrend forces

will have further impact on steel demand The impact of circular economy thinking is like to grow over time and

needs to be assessed carefully

Thank you for your attention.

13

For further information contact:

Dr Nae Hee Han | Director, Economic Studies and StatisticsWorld Steel [email protected] | T: +32 (0)2 702 8913 | worldsteel.org

worldsteel.org

Global Steel Market OutlookDisclaimer textKey observations:�Mild deceleration in steel demand amid elevated uncertaintiesGlobal overview�Steel demand, finished steel (SRO October 2018)Regional summary�Steel demand, finished steel (SRO October 2018)Developments in China�Developments in key regions (1/4)Developments in key regions (2/4)Developments in key regions (3/4)Developments in key regions (4/4)Slide Number 11Long term steel demand outlookSlide Number 13Slide Number 14

global steel market outlook - oecd.org steel committee... · the indian economy is returning to...

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