global teak trade in the aftermath of · 3. global trade in teak roundwood > 1 million m3/yr;...
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Global Teak Trade in the Aftermath of
Myanmar’s Log Export Ban
3rd World Teak Conference 2015, Guayaquil, Ecuador Walter Kollert, FAO & Przemyslaw J. Walotek , WaKa Serviços de
Investimentos Florestais
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Myanmar & Teak
• No 1 in natural teak
forests (50%)
• No 1 producer of teak
logs (25%)
• No 3 in planted teak
area (ca. 400,000 ha)
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1) Myanmar - a teak heavyweight
2) Log export ban: 1 April 2014
3) Impacts ?
• Illegal harvests, log smuggling,
illegal exports
• Price collaps in log auctions -
no international buyers
• Market opportunity for teak
from Africa and Latin America
• Price increase in consumer
countries due to scarcity of
high quality logs?
Introduction
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• Official statistics of national customs
departments
• Global Trade Information Services (GTIS)
• HS code
440349 other tropical roundwood
440729 other tropical sawnwood
• Teak export data from Myanmar not
available. Myanmar exports have to be
assessed from imports of major teak
importing countries
Methodology
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1) Trade Volume
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China 10%
India 74%
Thailand 16%
Global teak imports (avg. 2005-2014) 1.07 million m3/yr, 487 million USD/yr
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0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
China India Thailand
Share of imports from Myanmar
455,000 m3 (43%)
81%
25%
99%
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Colombia
Panama
Laos
Costa Rica
Taiwan
Myanmar
1,111
1,625
3,638
3,770
3,896
84,580
China (m3/yr) from 6 major countries (>1000 m3/yr)
India (m3/yr) from 10 major countries (> 20,000 m3/yr)
Nigeria
Togo
Panama
Benin
Malaysia
Costa Rica
Ivory Coast
Ecuador
Ghana
Myanmar
21,259
25,039
36,451
38,436
40,169
68,158
75,037
80,178
98,997
200,169
Teak imports to ...(avg. 2005-2014)
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Roundwood imports by major countries Trend 2000-2014
m3
0
200,000
400,000
600,000
800,000
1,000,000
1,200,000
1,400,000
Total
India
China Thailand
557,000 m3
1.236 million m3
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Share of imports from Myanmar to
China, India, Thailand, 2000-2014
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
%
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Imports by China and India from Africa
and Latin America, 2000-2014
Africa
Latin America
Asia (w/o Myanmar)
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
350,000m
3
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Emerging roundwood traders
Africa (2000-2014) Latin America (2000-2014)
Ghana
Ivory Coast
Benin
Togo
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
140,000
160,000
180,000
m3
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
140,000
160,000
180,000
m3
Ecuador
Costa Rica
Panama
Colombia
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2) Trade Value
Plantation logs, Panama Natural forest logs, Myanmar
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Unit price of China imports 2005-2014
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1,000
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
US
D/m
3
Myanmar
Myanmar trendline +4.1%/yr
Africa Lat Am
Africa, Asia, Lat Am trendline +3.1%
Asia
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Unit price of India imports 2005-2014
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
US
D/m
3
Myanmar trendline +3.7%/yr
Myanmar
Africa
Lat Am
Africa, Asia, Lat Am trendline +4.5%/yr
Asia
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3) Log Export Ban
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China imports Jan 2012 to Dec 2014, by months
Volume Unit price Myanmar Laos
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
40000
45000
50000
Jan12
Apr1
2
Jul1
2
Oct1
2
Jan13
Apr1
3
Jul1
3
Oct1
3
Jan14
Apr1
4
Jul1
4
Oct1
4
m3
Log export
ban
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
Jan12
Apr1
2
Jul1
2
Oct1
2
Jan13
Apr1
3
Jul1
3
Oct1
3
Jan14
Apr1
4
Jul1
4
Oct1
4
US
D/m
3
Log export
ban
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India imports from Africa Jan 2012 to Oct 2014, by months
Volume Unit price Ghana Benin Ivory Coast
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
16000
18000
Jan12
Apr1
2
Jul1
2
Oct1
2
Jan13
Apr1
3
Ju
l13
Oct1
3
Jan14
Apr1
4
Jul1
4
Oct1
4
m3
Log export
ban
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
Jan12
Apr1
2
Jul1
2
Oct1
2
Jan13
Apr1
3
Jul1
3
Oct1
3
Jan14
Apr1
4
Ju
l14
Oct1
4
US
D/m
3
Log export
ban
Togo
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India imports from Latin America Jan 2012 to Dec 2014, by months
Volume Unit price Ecuador Colombia
Costa Rica
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
Jan12
Apr1
2
Jul1
2
Oct1
2
Jan13
Apr1
3
Jul1
3
Oct1
3
Jan14
Apr1
4
Jul1
4
Oct1
4
m3
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
Jan12
Apr1
2
Jul1
2
Oct1
2
Jan13
Apr1
3
Jul1
3
Oct1
3
Jan14
Apr1
4
Jul1
4
Oct1
4
US
D/m
3
Log export
ban
Log export
ban
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Summary & Conclusions (1)
1. National customs data on teak imports according
to HS (Harmonized System)
2. Myanmar is a teak heavyweight - impact of log
export ban ?
3. Global trade in teak roundwood > 1 million m3/yr;
dominated by India, China and Thailand
4. Trade volume more than doubled since 2000,
trade value more than quadrupled
5. Emerging teak roundwood exporters:
Africa: Ghana, Ivory Coast, Benin, Togo, Nigeria
Lat Am: Ecuador, Costa Rica, Panama, Colombia
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6. Rise in prices: 3% to 4.5 % per year on average
since 2005
7. Global demand for teak expected to grow
8. Future belongs to teak plantations
9. Log export ban: different impact on imports into
China and India
Summary & Conclusions (2)
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Thank you for your attention !
3rd World Teak Conference (WTC3)
Guayaquil, Ecuador, 12 May 2015