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TRANSCRIPT
Global Trade Flow Index
Q1 - 2011
April 2011
Supported by:
2Copyright © 2011 Capgemini. All rights reserved.
Global Trade Flow Index – Q1 2011 edition
AGENDA
Summary
Index
Preview Window for Q2’11
The West-to-East Switch: BRIC
Appendix
3Copyright © 2011 Capgemini. All rights reserved.
Global Trade Flow Index – Q1 2011 edition
Global trade was flat in Q1 2011 due to government tightening measures in
major economies and Tsunami in Japan
Sources: Capgemini Analysis, Stats.oecd.org, 2010, Deloitte Global Economic Outlook Q1 2011, Logest forecast
Key developments
Tsunami in Japan resulted in reduction of
Global Trade volume by approx. 3%
Continuing with government tightening
measures China entered into a new era of
economic development, balancing its inflation
and export competitiveness in the first quarter
of 2011
In US, the public sector’s troubled balance
sheets, a weak job market, rising energy
costs, and declining home prices affected the
growth rate in Q1 2011
In the Eurozone, rising consumer spending –
supported by the lagged effects of policy
stimulus – triggered a gradual but sustained
growth in core nations
The outlook on the Indian economy is positive
due to increase in its trade volume by 6% on
q-o-q basis , as manufacturing sector
performed well due to strong domestic
demand and improving exports
Total trade- top 23 countries (billion usd)
4Copyright © 2011 Capgemini. All rights reserved.
Global Trade Flow Index – Q1 2011 edition
Tsunami in Japan affected its trade with its trading partners in Q1 2011,
resulting in reduction of global trade volume by approximately 3%
Sources: Capgemini Analysis, Stats.oecd.org, 2010, Logest forecast
Japan quake impact seen deep and long over Japan’s economy and is
expected to create a cascading effect on its trading partners in the near future
Japan’s economy crumbled in first
quarter due to strong effect of Tsunami
leading to fall in its GDP by 8.6%
annually, along with a reduction in its
foreign market by 29 % and domestic
market by 7% approx. on q--o-q basis
133
98
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
Estimated Trade volume before
Tsunami
Trade volume after Tsunami
Japan
Reduced by 27%
(Billion USD)
288 281
213
84
62
38
279 274
212
8161
35
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
USA China Germany Korea Russia Australia
Estimated Trade volume before Tsunami Trade volume after Tsunami
Impact on major trading partners
Reduced
by 3%Reduced
by 2%
Reduced
by 1%
Reduced
by 4% Reduced
by 1% Reduced
by 7%
(Billion USD)
5Copyright © 2011 Capgemini. All rights reserved.
Global Trade Flow Index – Q1 2011 edition
AGENDA
Summary
Index
Preview Window for Q2’11
The West-to-East Switch: BRIC
Appendix
6Copyright © 2011 Capgemini. All rights reserved.
Global Trade Flow Index – Q1 2011 edition
China retained its leadership position in the first quarter of 2011 on the basis
of its improving trade (1/2)
CountryRANK
Q1-2011
RANK
Q4-2010
China 1 1
United States 2 2
Germany 3 3
Netherlands 4 6
France 5 5
United Kingdom 6 7
Italy 7 8
Korea 8 9
Japan 9 4
Belgium 10 10
Canada 11 11
Russian
Federation12 12
Trade Volume
Score (A)
Q-o-Q Growth
Score (B)
3.94 3.88
4.00 3.75
3.04 3.88
1.44 3.91
1.45 3.86
1.26 3.84
1.25 3.88
1.16 3.77
1.41 2.85
1.05 3.88
0.99 3.84
0.88 3.92
Global Trade
Index Score*
15.37
15.18
11.77
5.60
5.58
4.88
4.82
4.44
4.26
4.06
3.80
3.47
Foreign Market
Score (C)
Domestic Market
Score (D)
3.85 3.98
3.79 3.85
3.84 3.88
3.88 3.89
3.83 3.87
3.86 3.88
3.85 3.86
3.79 3.92
2.70 3.54
3.87 3.89
3.78 3.89
3.92 4.00
Trade related parameters Market related parameters
Note: * Global Trade Index Score = A x (average of (B,C,D))
Source: Capgemini Analysis, Logest Forecast
7Copyright © 2011 Capgemini. All rights reserved.
Global Trade Flow Index – Q1 2011 edition
Indian economy maintained it’s momentum in Q1’11 as manufacturing sector
performed well due to strong domestic demand and improving exports (2/2)
CountryRANK
Q1-2011
RANK
Q4-2010
Mexico 13 13
Spain 14 14
India 15 15
Brazil 16 17
Australia 17 16
Poland 18 19
Switzerland 19 20
Sweden 20 18
Austria 21 21
Czech Republic 22 22
Norway 23 23
Trade Volume
Score (A)
Q-o-Q Growth
Score (B)
0.78 3.89
0.73 3.87
0.65 4.00
0.53 3.97
0.51 3.67
0.43 3.95
0.42 3.90
0.42 3.88
0.41 3.88
0.36 3.94
0.27 3.90
Global Trade
Index Score*
3.06
2.82
2.59
2.07
1.92
1.69
1.63
1.62
1.57
1.39
1.05
Foreign Market
Score (C)
Domestic Market
Score (D)
3.92 3.90
3.87 3.86
4.00 3.96
3.88 3.94
3.85 3.82
3.93 3.92
3.89 3.87
3.88 3.88
3.87 3.88
3.89 3.89
3.88 3.89
Trade related parameters Market related parameters
Note: * Global Trade Index Score = A x (average of (B,C,D))
Source: Capgemini Analysis, Logest Forecast
8Copyright © 2011 Capgemini. All rights reserved.
Global Trade Flow Index – Q1 2011 edition
Tsunami in Japan led to a steep fall in its economy creating a direct impact on
trade with major economies
4th Quarter- 2010 1st Quarter- 2011
Source: Capgemini Analysis, Deloitte Global Economic Outlook Q1 2011, Stats.oecd.org, 2010, Logest Forecast
X- Foreign Market Growth (%)
Y- Domestic Market Growth (%)
Bubble– GDP Q4-2010
X- Foreign Market Growth (%)
Y- Domestic Market Growth (%)
Bubble – GDP Q1 2011
* As per the revised Q4 2010 figures released by OECD * As per the Logest Forecast
-6,0
-4,0
-2,0
0,0
2,0
4,0
6,0
-4,0 1,0 6,0 11,0 16,0
United States
Japan
Russia
-6,0
-4,0
-2,0
0,0
2,0
4,0
6,0
-4,0 1,0 6,0 11,0 16,0
Japan’s economy crumbled in first quarter due to strong
effect of Tsunami leading to fall in its GDP by 8.6%
annually, along with a reduction in its foreign market by
29 % and domestic market by 7% approx. on q--o-q basis
United States export of goods and
services decelerated by approx 4.5% on q-
o-q , as Tsunami in Japan majorly
affected the trade between the countries
United States
Russia’s GDP grew by 4.7% on q-o-q,
benefiting from the rise in the prices of oil
and natural gas
Russia
9Copyright © 2011 Capgemini. All rights reserved.
Global Trade Flow Index – Q1 2011 edition
AGENDA
Summary
Index
Preview Window for Q2’11
The West-to-East Switch: BRIC
Appendix
10Copyright © 2011 Capgemini. All rights reserved.
Global Trade Flow Index – Q1 2011 edition
World trade is expected to grow in Q2 2011 due to rise in Japan’s imports; at
the same time shifting its exports with the competitor nations
Sources: Capgemini Analysis, Stats.oecd.org, 2010, Quarterly Economic Forecast-TD Economics, Logest Forecast
There is an improvement in the global trade levels though the pace was slower than expected because of the
fear of a sovereign debt crisis in Eurozone and inflation in developing countries.
Total trade (Q2 2011) - top 23 countries (USD bn) KEY RISK
N-threat in Japan could have an impact on
global scale
Geopolitical instability and sovereign debt
challenges in Europe could be the key risks to
the outlook
Inflation in emerging markets could affect its
robust growth
Ongoing massive U.S. fiscal imbalances also
run the risk of creating financial market
instability
11Copyright © 2011 Capgemini. All rights reserved.
Global Trade Flow Index – Q1 2011 edition
AGENDA
Summary
Index
Preview Window for Q2’11
The West-to-East Switch: BRIC
Appendix
12Copyright © 2011 Capgemini. All rights reserved.
Global Trade Flow Index – Q1 2011 edition
Brazil’s foreign trade levels have increased, continuing its
dependency on the US for more than one fourth of its total foreign trade
Sources: Capgemini Analysis, Stats.oecd.org, Goldmansachs.com, “Dreaming With BRICs”, 2003
Brazil GDP growth – Projected vs. Actual Foreign Trade Vs Domestic Market
At current growth levels, Brazil has crossed 2023 GDP levels as per projections
Brazil’s foreign trade has been approx. 9-17% of its domestic
consumption over the past decade
Brazil’s Top 10 Trading Partner Countries
US, Germany and Japan
represents more than 50%
of Brazil's total trade
Change in economic
environment / trade policies
of top trading partners may
impact Brazil’s trade growth
Country
USA
Germany
Japan
Korea
France
Italy
Mexico
Netherlands
Spain
UK
32%
14%
8%
6%
5%
5%
4%
4%
4%
31%
14%
8%
7%
5%
5%
5%
4%
3%
4% 5%
Q1 2010 Q1 2011
(Billion USD)
13Copyright © 2011 Capgemini. All rights reserved.
Global Trade Flow Index – Q1 2011 edition
Russia continues to depend on the Germany for more than one
fourth of its total foreign trade
Sources: Capgemini Analysis, Stats.oecd.org, Goldmansachs.com, “Dreaming With BRICs”, 2003
Russia GDP growth – Projected vs. Actual Foreign Trade Vs Domestic Market
At current growth levels, Russia
has crossed 2011 GDP levels as
per projections
Russia was worst hit from crisis
amongst the BRIC nations
Russia’s foreign trade which was approx. half of its domestic consumption in 2000,
is now 1/4th of the domestic consumption and has gradually decreased over the past decade
Russia’s Top 10 Trading Partner Countries
Germany alone constitutes
1/4th of Russia’s total trade
and more than 3/4th of its
exports consisting of oil,
natural gas, metals & timber
Change in trade policies of
European Union may impact
Russia’s trade growth
because of its high
dependence on European
economies
Country
Germany
Italy
Netherlands
United States
Poland
France
Japan
Korea
Belgium
UK
24%
10%
8%
8%
8%
8%
6%
5%
5%
Q1 2010 Q1 2011
25%
7%
8%
9%
8%
7%
6%
5%
4%
4% 4%
(Billion USD)
14Copyright © 2011 Capgemini. All rights reserved.
Global Trade Flow Index – Q1 2011 edition
India’s actual GDP growth mirrors projections, while its foreign
trade levels have continually expanded
Sources: Capgemini Analysis, Stats.oecd.org, Goldmansachs.com, “Dreaming With BRICs”, 2003
India GDP growth – Projected vs. Actual Foreign Trade Vs Domestic Market
At current growth levels, India
has crossed 2013 GDP levels as
per projections
India’s foreign trade ration has been gradually increasing and has reached
approx. 1/4th of its domestic consumption over the past decade
India’s Top 10 Trading Partner Countries
US alone constitutes 1/4th
of India’s total trade followed
by Germany and Australia
Change in economic
environment / trade policies
of USA may impact India’s
trade growth
Q1 2010 Q1 2011Country
USA
Germany
Australia
Korea
UK
Japan
Belgium
France
Italy
Netherlands
23%
11%
9%
9%
8%
7%
7%
6%
5%
25%
12%
8%
9%
8%
6%
7%
5%
4%
4% 4%
(Billion USD)
15Copyright © 2011 Capgemini. All rights reserved.
Global Trade Flow Index – Q1 2011 edition
China has surged ahead of GDP growth projections based on strong
domestic demand, while its foreign trade levels have grown more gradually
Sources: Capgemini Analysis, Stats.oecd.org, Goldmansachs.com, “Dreaming With BRICs”, 2003
China GDP growth – Projected vs. Actual Foreign Trade Vs Domestic Market
At current growth levels, China
has crossed 2015 GDP levels as
per projections
China’s foreign trade has been approx. 7-11% of its domestic consumption over
the past decade
China’s Top 10 Trading Partner Countries
US, Japan and Korea
represent more than 50% of
China's total trade
Change in economic
environment / trade policies
of top trading partners may
impact China’s trade growth
Q1 2010 Q1 2011Country
USA
Japan
Korea
Germany
Australia
France
UK
Canada
Netherlands
Italy
19%
12%
11%
5%
4%
3%
3%
3%
29%
15%
10%
11%
6%
4%
4%
4%
3%
3% 3%
26%
(Billion USD)
16Copyright © 2011 Capgemini. All rights reserved.
Global Trade Flow Index – Q1 2011 edition
AGENDA
Summary
Index
Preview Window for Q2’11
The West-to-East Switch: BRIC
Appendix
17Copyright © 2011 Capgemini. All rights reserved.
Global Trade Flow Index – Q1 2011 edition
AGENDA
Summary
Index
Preview Window for Q2’11
The West-to-East Switch: BRIC
Appendix
- Country Profiles
- Methodology & Base Data Files
18Copyright © 2011 Capgemini. All rights reserved.
Global Trade Flow Index – Q1 2011 edition
China’s low-cost manufacturing capabilities work well especially for
its import and export trade; the country is also well connected to
international markets through its vast port facilities
A rise in wages led China move up the manufacturing value chain.
The Chinese economy grew by 4.8% with rise in its domestic market
by 4.9% and foreign market by 1.3% on q-o-q basis
The Total Trade volume has increased marginally by 3% in
comparison with Q4
Country profile – China
Sources: Capgemini Analysis, Stats.oecd.org, Delloit Global Economic Outlook Q1 2011, economywatch.com , Logest forecast
General information Key Trade-related Trends / Facts
Description Values
GDP 1887 Billions USD
GDP Growth (Q-o-Q) 4.80%
Population 1341 Million
GDP per Capita (2010) 7,518 USD
RANK 1
Gross Domestic Product Total Trade Domestic & Export Market
19Copyright © 2011 Capgemini. All rights reserved.
Global Trade Flow Index – Q1 2011 edition
One of the biggest economies in the world, the US has good quality
infrastructure, quality transport infrastructure and efficient custom
administration
US economy continued with the public sector’s troubled balance
sheets, a weak job market, rising energy costs, and declining home
prices in the Q1 2011
Stimulatory fiscal and monetary policies in US are beginning to take
effect after a year of sluggish growth and high unemployment.
Country profile – United States
Sources: Capgemini Analysis, Stats.oecd.org, Deloitte Global Economic Outlook Q1 2011, economywatch.com , Logest forecast
General information Key Trade-related Trends / Facts
Description Values
GDP 3782 Billions USD
GDP Growth (Q-o-Q) 1.73 %
Population 311 Million
GDP per Capita (2010) 47,131 USD
RANK 2
Gross Domestic Product Total Trade Domestic & Export Market
20Copyright © 2011 Capgemini. All rights reserved.
Global Trade Flow Index – Q1 2011 edition
The German economy is heavily export-oriented economy
The outlook for Germany’s traditionally weak private consumption is
good in light of highly favorable labor market conditions, rising real
wages, still-moderate inflationary pressures and buoyant consumer
confidence.
Germany’s GDP grew by 1.5 % in Q1 due to rise in domestic market
by 2.3% on q-o-q basis
Country profile – Germany
Sources: Capgemini Analysis, Stats.oecd.org, 2010, economywatch.com, Logest forecast
General information Key Trade-related Trends / Facts
Description Values
GDP 876 Billions USD
GDP Growth (Q-o-Q) 1.50 %
Population 81 Million
GDP per Capita (2010) 35,930 USD
RANK 3
Gross Domestic Product Total Trade Domestic & Export Market
21Copyright © 2011 Capgemini. All rights reserved.
Global Trade Flow Index – Q1 2011 edition
The Netherlands which depends heavily on foreign trade owns an
outstanding transport Infrastructure, with Rotterdam being one of the
world’s best seaports, enhancing the country’s connectivity to rest of
the world
In Q1, its GDP has rose by 1.71% due to growth in the Domestic
Consumption
The total trade volume rose by 4% in Q1 due to increase in its export
imports by 4% each on q-o-q basis
Country profile – The Netherlands
Sources: Capgemini Analysis, Stats.oecd.org, 2010., economywatch.com, Logest forecast
General information Key Trade-related Trends / Facts
Description Values
GDP 208 Billions USD
GDP Growth (Q-o-Q) 1.71 %
Population 16 Million
GDP per Capita (2010) 40,777 USD
RANK 4
Gross Domestic Product Total Trade Domestic & Export Market
22Copyright © 2011 Capgemini. All rights reserved.
Global Trade Flow Index – Q1 2011 edition
France leads a southern Euro coalition including the Mediterranean
States. It has a large and diverse industrial base. Economic growth
rates in France have been steady for decades due to conservative
planning of the economy
French GDP grew by 1.61% with rise in its total trade volume by 2%
on q-o-q basis
While domestic demand continues to strengthen in Q1 2011, the
push from its exports faded significantly
Country profile – France
Sources: Capgemini Analysis, Stats.oecd.org, 2010, Deloitte Global Economic Outlook Q1 2011, economywatch.com, Logest forecast
General information Key Trade-related Trends / Facts
Description Values
GDP 683 Billions USD
GDP Growth (Q-o-Q) 1.61 %
Population 65 Million
GDP per Capita (2010) 34,092 USD
RANK 5
Gross Domestic Product Total Trade Domestic & Export Market
23Copyright © 2011 Capgemini. All rights reserved.
Global Trade Flow Index – Q1 2011 edition
The UK economy continued to expand though at a slower growth
rate as cuts in government spending ripple through the economy
In Q1 UK economy grew by 1.69% with an expansion of monetary
policy, strong export demand, a weak pound, and increased
business investment.
With consumers still clutching tightly onto their cash reserves, the
scope for a strong recovery in domestic demand appears limited
Country profile – United Kingdom
Sources: Capgemini Analysis, Cia.gov, Stats.oecd.org, 2010, economywatch.com, Logest forecast
General information Key Trade-related Trends / Facts
Description Values
GDP 598 Billions USD
GDP Growth (Q-o-Q) 1.69 %
Population 62 Million
GDP per Capita (2010) 35,053 USD
RANK 6
Gross Domestic Product Total Trade Domestic & Export Market
24Copyright © 2011 Capgemini. All rights reserved.
Global Trade Flow Index – Q1 2011 edition
Italy has strong business clusters, producing goods high in value
chain using latest processes & technology, but the structural
weaknesses in the economy increases business costs and
undermines investor confidence
Italian economy marginally grew by 1.39% as the total trade growth
rate fell from 9% in Q4 2010 to 3% in Q1 2011
Italy’s growth is depends on its export to gain share in foreign
markets and consumers to loosen the purse strings
Country profile – Italy
Sources: Capgemini Analysis, Stats.oecd.org, 2010, www.marketresearch.com/product/display.asp?productid=6066765, economywatch.com , Logest forecast
General information Key Trade-related Trends / Facts
Description Values
GDP 538 Billions USD
GDP Growth (Q-o-Q) 1.39 %
Population 60 Million
GDP per Capita (2010) 29,418 USD
RANK 7
Gross Domestic Product Total Trade Domestic & Export Market
25Copyright © 2011 Capgemini. All rights reserved.
Global Trade Flow Index – Q1 2011 edition
An extremely competitive education system and a highly skilled and
motivated workforce are two key factors driving this knowledge
economy
South Korea relies largely upon exports to fuel the growth of its
economy and in first quarter of 2011 its exports of goods & services
reduced by 0.3% affecting to its GDP’s growth
In recent years, Korea's economy moved away from the centrally
planned, government-directed investment model toward a more
market-oriented one
Country profile – Korea
Sources: Capgemini Analysis, Stats.oecd.org, economywatch.com, Logest forecast
General information Key Trade-related Trends / Facts
Description Values
GDP 275 Billions USD
GDP Growth (Q-o-Q) 2.47 %
Population 49 Million
GDP per Capita (2010) 29,791 USD
RANK 8
Gross Domestic Product Total Trade Domestic & Export Market
26Copyright © 2011 Capgemini. All rights reserved.
Global Trade Flow Index – Q1 2011 edition
Its economy is highly efficient and competitive in areas linked to
international trade, but productivity is far lower in protected areas
such as agriculture, distribution, and services
Japan’s economy crumbled in first quarter due to strong effect of
Tsunami leading to fall in its GDP by 8.6% annually, along with a
reduction in its foreign market by 29 % and domestic market by 7%
approx. on Q-o-Q basis
Japan’s export sector also faced headwinds due to waning demand
and increased competition from other Asia Pacific producers.
Country profile – Japan
Sources: Capgemini Analysis, Stats.oecd.org, Deloitte Global Economic Outlook Q1 2011, economywatch.com, Logest forecast
General information Key Trade-related Trends / Facts
Description Values
GDP 1337 Billions USD
GDP Growth (Q-o-Q) -7.91 %
Population 128 Million
GDP per Capita (2010) 33,828 USD
RANK 9
Gross Domestic Product Total Trade Domestic & Export Market
27Copyright © 2011 Capgemini. All rights reserved.
Global Trade Flow Index – Q1 2011 edition
Belgium is poor in its natural resources, it imports raw materials in
great quantity and processes them largely for export
Belgium GDP rose by 1.73% with an increase in its domestic market
by 2.6% and export market by 1.6% on q-o-q basis
Belgium’s total trade volume grew marginally by 3% due to increase
in its exports and imports by 3% each on q-o-q basis
Country profile – Belgium
Sources: Capgemini Analysis, Stats.oecd.org, economywatch.com, Logest forecast
General information Key Trade-related Trends / Facts
Description Values
GDP 124 Billions USD
GDP Growth (Q-o-Q) 1.73 %
Population 10 Million
GDP per Capita (2010) 36,275 USD
RANK 10
Gross Domestic Product Total Trade Domestic & Export Market
28Copyright © 2011 Capgemini. All rights reserved.
Global Trade Flow Index – Q1 2011 edition
Canada has high availability & quality of transport infrastructure as
well as highly efficient markets but is highly dependent on the United
States as a market, with 3/4th of its exports to US
Canadian economy grew marginally by just 1.8% due to rise in its
domestic market size by 2.7% on q-o-q basis
Total Trade volume grew by 2% as stronger US growth provided a
temporary lift to Canada's exports
Country profile – Canada
Sources: Capgemini Analysis, Stats.oecd.org, Global Economic Outlook Q1 2011, capital economics, economywatch.com, Logest forecast
General information Key Trade-related Trends / Facts
Description Values
GDP 427 Billions USD
GDP Growth (Q-o-Q) 1.80 %
Population 34 Million
GDP per Capita (2010) 39,034 USD
RANK 11
Gross Domestic Product Total Trade Domestic & Export Market
29Copyright © 2011 Capgemini. All rights reserved.
Global Trade Flow Index – Q1 2011 edition
Russia remains over-dependent on oil as high energy prices may
help in the short term but its long-term growth will depend on
stimulating investment in non-commodity industries and utilizing the
abundance of highly-skilled labor.
Russian GDP rose by 4.72% with an increase in its domestic market
by 5.5% and export market by 3%
Russia’s total trade volume rose by 4% due to increase in its export
of goods by 4% and imports of goods by 5%
Country profile – Russian Federation
Sources: Capgemini Analysis, Stats.oecd.org, Deloitte Global Economic Outlook Q1 2011, economywatch.com, Logest forecast
General information Key Trade-related Trends / Facts
Description Values
GDP 387 Billions USD
GDP Growth (Q-o-Q) 4.72 %
Population 142 Million
GDP per Capita (2010) 15,807 USD
RANK 12
Gross Domestic Product Total Trade Domestic & Export Market
30Copyright © 2011 Capgemini. All rights reserved.
Global Trade Flow Index – Q1 2011 edition
Mexico has an export-oriented economy, more than 90% of Mexican
trade is under free trade agreements (FTAs) with more than 40
countries
Mexico’s exports saw a 3% q-o-q increase in growth rate as US
consumer and industrial demand being the main drivers of its
exports
Mexico’s economy further grew by 2.66%, supported by a recovering
export outlook and an increase in its domestic demand
Country profile – Mexico
Sources: Capgemini Analysis, Stats.oecd.org, 2010, Global Economic Outlook Q1 2011, capital economics, economywatch.com, Logest forecast
General information Key Trade-related Trends / Facts
Description Values
GDP 289 Billions USD
GDP Growth (Q-o-Q) 2.66 %
Population 112 Million
GDP per Capita (2010) 14,266 USD
RANK 13
Gross Domestic Product Total Trade Domestic & Export Market
31Copyright © 2011 Capgemini. All rights reserved.
Global Trade Flow Index – Q1 2011 edition
Spain, the fourth-largest economy in the euro zone and EU accounts
for 70% of Spain's exports
The Spanish economy grew by 1.82% supported by various
government initiative though it is still laboring under a 20%
unemployment rate
A decline in its trade growth probably relates to the growing
economic imbalance in euro zone
Country profile – Spain
Sources: Capgemini Analysis, Stats.oecd.org, 2010, economywatch.com, Logest forecast
General information Key Trade-related Trends / Facts
Description Values
GDP 373 Billions USD
GDP Growth (Q-o-Q) 1.82 %
Population 46 Million
GDP per Capita (2010) 29,652 USD
RANK 14
Gross Domestic Product Total Trade Domestic & Export Market
32Copyright © 2011 Capgemini. All rights reserved.
Global Trade Flow Index – Q1 2011 edition
Services are the major source of economic growth, accounting for
more than half of India's output with less than one third of its labor
force
The outlook on the Indian economy is positive due to increase in its
trade volume by 6% on q-o-q basis
India’s GDP grew by 4.3 % in Q1, as the manufacturing sector is
firing on all cylinders due to strong domestic demand and improving
exports
Country profile – India
Sources: Capgemini Analysis, Stats.oecd.org, Deloitte Global Economic Outlook Q1 2011, economywatch.com, Logest forecast
General information Key Trade-related Trends / Facts
Description Values
GDP 392 Billions USD
GDP Growth (Q-o-Q) 4.38 %
Population 1210 Million
GDP per Capita (2010) 3,291 USD
RANK 15
Gross Domestic Product Total Trade Domestic & Export Market
33Copyright © 2011 Capgemini. All rights reserved.
Global Trade Flow Index – Q1 2011 edition
To promote trade, Brazil has a simple and transparent tariff structure
and as a step towards liberalization, Brazil has signed Free Trade
Agreements with developing economies to remove dependence
Rapid GDP growth and rising global commodity prices have spurred
higher than desirable inflation in Brazil
Brazil’s economy is rapidly growing, as Total Trade volume grew by
5% due to increase in its export by 5% and imports by 6%
Country profile – Brazil
Sources: Capgemini Analysis, Stats.oecd.org, Deloitte Global Economic Outlook Q1 2011, economywatch.com, Logest forecast
General information Key Trade-related Trends / Facts
Description Values
GDP 598 Billions USD
GDP Growth (Q-o-Q) 3.71 %
Population 190 Million
GDP per Capita (2010) 11,289 USD
RANK 16
Gross Domestic Product Total Trade Domestic & Export Market
34Copyright © 2011 Capgemini. All rights reserved.
Global Trade Flow Index – Q1 2011 edition
Australia has transparent border administration and transport but its
regulatory environment promotes intense domestic competition
along with high domestic and foreign market barriers
Australia’s GDP rose by 2.88%, along with rise in its domestic and
foreign market by 1% each on q-o-q basis
Country profile – Australia
Sources: Capgemini Analysis, Stats.oecd.org, Deloitte Global Economic Outlook Q1 2011, economywatch.com, Logest forecast
General information Key Trade-related Trends / Facts
Description Values
GDP 356 Billions USD
GDP Growth (Q-o-Q) 2.88 %
Population 22 Million
GDP per Capita (2010) 39,692 USD
RANK 17
Gross Domestic Product Total Trade Domestic & Export Market
35Copyright © 2011 Capgemini. All rights reserved.
Global Trade Flow Index – Q1 2011 edition
Unlike its Central European peers, domestic demand has driven
Poland’s economic rebound in 2010 and will continue to be the main
growth engine in 2011.
Ongoing fiscal deterioration in Poland and external dynamics,
particularly in the eurozone, pose the main risks to the growth
outlook
Poland’s Total Trade expanded by 5% due to rise in its export by 5%
Poland’s GDP rose by 2.90%, along with rise in its domestic market
size by 3% on q-o-q basis
Country profile – Poland
Sources: Capgemini Analysis, Stats.oecd.org, economywatch.com, Logest forecast
General information Key Trade-related Trends / Facts
Description Values
GDP 129 Billions USD
GDP Growth (Q-o-Q) 2.90 %
Population 38 Million
GDP per Capita (2010) 18,837 USD
RANK 18
Gross Domestic Product Total Trade Domestic & Export Market
36Copyright © 2011 Capgemini. All rights reserved.
Global Trade Flow Index – Q1 2011 edition
Switzerland has stable modern market economy with low
unemployment, a highly skilled labor force, and a per capita GDP
among the highest in the world
The Swiss economy has been experiencing a strong recovery, as its
strong domestic economy was supported with growth in foreign
market size
The Total Trade volume grew marginally by 3% due to rise in its
export by 4%
Country profile – Switzerland
Sources: Capgemini Analysis, Stats.oecd.org, economywatch.com, Logest forecast
General information Key Trade-related Trends / Facts
Description Values
GDP 150 Billions USD
GDP Growth (Q-o-Q) 1.84 %
Population 8 Million
GDP per Capita (2010) 41,765 USD
RANK 19
Gross Domestic Product Total Trade Domestic & Export Market
37Copyright © 2011 Capgemini. All rights reserved.
Global Trade Flow Index – Q1 2011 edition
Swedish GDP grew by 1.87% in Q1 2011 due to increase in its
domestic demand and consumer spending, inventory investments
and declining unemployment
Due to slowdown in both exports and imports growth, the Total
Trade volume marginally rose by 3%
Country profile – Sweden
Sources: Capgemini Analysis, Stats.oecd.org, economywatch.com, Logest forecast
General information Key Trade-related Trends / Facts
Description Values
GDP 134 Billions USD
GDP Growth (Q-o-Q) 1.87 %
Population 9 Million
GDP per Capita (2010) 37,775 USD
RANK 20
Gross Domestic Product Total Trade Domestic & Export Market
38Copyright © 2011 Capgemini. All rights reserved.
Global Trade Flow Index – Q1 2011 edition
Austria’s GDP rose marginally by 1.77%, along with rise in its
domestic market size by 2% on q-o-q basis
Austria’s Total Trade growth grew by approx. 3% on q-o-q basis, as
the volume for its Imports export of goods rose by 3% each
Country profile – Austria
Sources: Capgemini Analysis, Stats.oecd.org, 2010, economywatch.com, Logest forecast
General information Key Trade-related Trends / Facts
Description Values
GDP 101 Billions USD
GDP Growth (Q-o-Q) 1.77 %
Population 8 Million
GDP per Capita (2010) 39,454 USD
RANK 21
Gross Domestic Product Total Trade Domestic & Export Market
39Copyright © 2011 Capgemini. All rights reserved.
Global Trade Flow Index – Q1 2011 edition
The Czech Republic is a highly export-oriented economy and its
fortunes are largely tied to the economies of its key trade partners,
particularly Germany
Czech Republic’s GDP rose by only 2.08%, as it’s Total Trade grew
by 4% on q-o-q basis
Country profile – Czech Republic
Sources: Capgemini Analysis, Stats.oecd.org, 2010, economywatch.com, Logest forecast
General information Key Trade-related Trends / Facts
Description Values
GDP 53 Billions USD
GDP Growth (Q-o-Q) 2.08 %
Population 10 Million
GDP per Capita (2010) 24,987 USD
RANK 22
Gross Domestic Product Total Trade Domestic & Export Market
40Copyright © 2011 Capgemini. All rights reserved.
Global Trade Flow Index – Q1 2011 edition
The country is highly dependent on the petroleum sector, which
accounts for nearly half of exports
Economic output is struggling due to sluggish external demand and
weak competitiveness
GDP growth is 2.31% in Q1, along with rise in its total trade volume
by 3% due to private sector spending remaining as a main source of
growth in the Norwegian economy
Country profile – Norway
Sources: Capgemini Analysis, Stats.oecd.org, 2010, economywatch.com, Logest forecast
General information Key Trade-related Trends / Facts
Description Values
GDP 116 Billions USD
GDP Growth (Q-o-Q) 2.31 %
Population 4 Million
GDP per Capita (2010) 52,239 USD
RANK 23
Gross Domestic Product Total Trade Domestic & Export Market
41Copyright © 2011 Capgemini. All rights reserved.
Global Trade Flow Index – Q1 2011 edition
AGENDA
Summary
Index
Preview Window for Q2’11
The West-to-East Switch: BRIC
Appendix
- Country Profiles
- Methodology & Base Data Files
42Copyright © 2011 Capgemini. All rights reserved.
Global Trade Flow Index – Q1 2011 edition
Appendix – Global Trade Index – Methodology and Data Sheets
Methodology: Two pronged approach encompassing trade and market related parameters is used to calculate the Index
Trade related parameters
Market related parameters
Global Trade Index
Base Data Files
43Copyright © 2011 Capgemini. All rights reserved.
Global Trade Flow Index – Q1 2011 edition
While predicting the Global trade index, we follow the following steps as mentioned below:
a. LOGEST Calculation:
a. Apply LOGEST Formula (=Logest (Historical Data Range)-1) to the historical data of trade, GDP, Domestic
and foreign market, until the latest available quarter
b. From the derived LOGEST value, predict the next quarter data by multiplying it with the previous quarter
and adding the factor into the previous quarter data
b. Adjustment Factor Calculation:
a. Calculate the variance of prediction against the actual for last 4 quarters and calculate the average
variance
b. Multiply the average variance % with the predicted figures to get the adjusted forecasting
c. Finally, predict the Global trade index based on the adjusted figures
Appendix ‒ Global Trade Index Forecasting Methodology
METHODOLOGY Used:
44Copyright © 2011 Capgemini. All rights reserved.
Global Trade Flow Index – Q1 2011 edition
Variance between Actual vs. Predicted values as per LOGEST method
High level of accuracy observed in 3 Quarters prediction done using LOGEST method, showing variance
between 0 to 5% from the actual which is within the forecast tolerance level of + or -10%.
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Capgemini Consulting is the strategy and transformation consulting brand of Capgemini Group
Copyright © 2011 Capgemini. All rights reserved.
Prepared and edited by:
Gaurav Bhosle, Capgemini Consulting India
Roy Lenders, Capgemini Consulting Netherlands