global trends in higher education
DESCRIPTION
The crisis hit the least educated hardestThe unemployment rate for 15-29 year-olds increased,on average, from 10.2% to 13.5%Lack of relevant skills/experience brings higher unemployment risk for recent entrants to the labour forceTRANSCRIPT
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Global trends in higher education
Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD)
6 September 2011
Embargo until13 September
11:00 Paris
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Education in times of economic uncertainty In the current economic environment…
…Continued strong demand for education – Poor labour markets and low opportunity costs for education
… Substantial public and private gains from education– Earnings premium for tertiary education remains large and
continues to grow- Public long-term gains from higher education are almost
three times the size of the investments
…High-level skills key to competitiveness… Comparative cost advantage across OECD countries
varies with educational levels
…Labour-market entry becomes more difficult– Particularly for young lower educated individuals
…Education a good insurance against unemployment and to stay employed especially in weak labour markets
Educational attainment likely to rise further Continuing education increasingly important.
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The crisis hit the least educated hardest
The unemployment rate for 15-29 year-olds increased,
on average, from 10.2% to 13.5%Lack of relevant skills/experience brings higher
unemployment risk for recent entrants to the labour force
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When the crisis hitPercentage-point change between 2008-09 in unemployment rate for 15-29
year-olds
Norway
Switzerland
United Kingdom
Korea
Australia
Denmark
Slovenia
Japan
Belgium
France
Poland
Germany
Finland
Portugal
Greece
Slovak Republic
Turkey
Spain
- 10 20 30 40 C3.1
Norway
Switzerland
United Kingdom
Korea
Australia
Denmark
Slovenia
Japan
Belgium
France
Poland
Germany
Finland
Portugal
Greece
Slovak Republic
Turkey
Spain
- 10 20 30 40
Tertiary education (%) Below upper secondary
education (%)
2008 2009
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Unabated educational expansion
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AustraliaAustriaBelgiumCanadaChileCzech RepublicDenmarkEstoniaFinlandFranceGermanyGreeceHungaryIcelandIrelandIsraelItalyJapanKoreaLuxembourgMexicoNetherlandNew ZealandNorwayPolandPortugalSlovak RepublicSloveniaSpainSwedenSwitzerlandTurkeyUnited KingdomUnited States
A world of change – higher education
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 700.0
5,000.0
10,000.0
15,000.0
20,000.0
25,000.0
30,000.0
1995
Expe
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per
stud
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at t
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USD
)
Tertiary-type A graduation rate
Graduate supply
Cost
per
stu
den
tUnited States
Finland
Japan
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AustraliaAustriaBelgiumCanadaChileCzech RepublicDenmarkEstoniaFinlandFranceGermanyGreeceHungaryIcelandIrelandIsraelItalyJapanKoreaLuxembourgMexicoNetherlandNew ZealandNorwayPolandPortugalSlovak RepublicSloveniaSpainSwedenSwitzerlandTurkeyUnited KingdomUnited States
A world of change – higher education
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 700.0
5,000.0
10,000.0
15,000.0
20,000.0
25,000.0
30,000.0
2000
Expe
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per
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USD
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Tertiary-type A graduation rate
United Kingdom
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AustraliaAustriaBelgiumCanadaChileCzech RepublicDenmarkEstoniaFinlandFranceGermanyGreeceHungaryIcelandIrelandIsraelItalyJapanKoreaLuxembourgMexicoNetherlandNew ZealandNorwayPolandPortugalSlovak RepublicSloveniaSpainSwedenSwitzerlandTurkeyUnited KingdomUnited States
A world of change – higher education
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2001
Expe
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per
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USD
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Tertiary-type A graduation rate
Australia
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AustraliaAustriaBelgiumCanadaChileCzech RepublicDenmarkEstoniaFinlandFranceGermanyGreeceHungaryIcelandIrelandIsraelItalyJapanKoreaLuxembourgMexicoNetherlandNew ZealandNorwayPolandPortugalSlovak RepublicSloveniaSpainSwedenSwitzerlandTurkeyUnited KingdomUnited States
A world of change – higher education
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 700.0
5,000.0
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25,000.0
30,000.0
2002
Expe
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USD
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Tertiary-type A graduation rate
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AustraliaAustriaBelgiumCanadaChileCzech RepublicDenmarkEstoniaFinlandFranceGermanyGreeceHungaryIcelandIrelandIsraelItalyJapanKoreaLuxembourgMexicoNetherlandNew ZealandNorwayPolandPortugalSlovak RepublicSloveniaSpainSwedenSwitzerlandTurkeyUnited KingdomUnited States
A world of change – higher education
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 700.0
5,000.0
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25,000.0
30,000.0
2003
Expe
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Tertiary-type A graduation rate
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AustraliaAustriaBelgiumCanadaChileCzech RepublicDenmarkEstoniaFinlandFranceGermanyGreeceHungaryIcelandIrelandIsraelItalyJapanKoreaLuxembourgMexicoNetherlandNew ZealandNorwayPolandPortugalSlovak RepublicSloveniaSpainSwedenSwitzerlandTurkeyUnited KingdomUnited States
A world of change – higher education
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 700.0
5,000.0
10,000.0
15,000.0
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30,000.0
2004
Expe
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per
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USD
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Tertiary-type A graduation rate
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AustraliaAustriaBelgiumCanadaChileCzech RepublicDenmarkEstoniaFinlandFranceGermanyGreeceHungaryIcelandIrelandIsraelItalyJapanKoreaLuxembourgMexicoNetherlandNew ZealandNorwayPolandPortugalSlovak RepublicSloveniaSpainSwedenSwitzerlandTurkeyUnited KingdomUnited States
A world of change – higher education
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 700.0
5,000.0
10,000.0
15,000.0
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25,000.0
30,000.0
2005
Expe
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USD
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Tertiary-type A graduation rate
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AustraliaAustriaBelgiumCanadaChileCzech RepublicDenmarkEstoniaFinlandFranceGermanyGreeceHungaryIcelandIrelandIsraelItalyJapanKoreaLuxembourgMexicoNetherlandNew ZealandNorwayPolandPortugalSlovak RepublicSloveniaSpainSwedenSwitzerlandTurkeyUnited KingdomUnited States
A world of change – higher education
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 700.0
5,000.0
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2006
Expe
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per
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USD
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Tertiary-type A graduation rate
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AustraliaAustriaBelgiumCanadaChileCzech RepublicDenmarkEstoniaFinlandFranceGermanyGreeceHungaryIcelandIrelandIsraelItalyJapanKoreaLuxembourgMexicoNetherlandNew ZealandNorwayPolandPortugalSlovak RepublicSloveniaSpainSwedenSwitzerlandTurkeyUnited KingdomUnited States
A world of change – higher education
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 700.0
5,000.0
10,000.0
15,000.0
20,000.0
25,000.0
30,000.0
2007
Expe
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per
stud
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at t
ertia
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USD
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Tertiary-type A graduation rate
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AustraliaAustriaBelgiumCanadaChileCzech RepublicDenmarkEstoniaFinlandFranceGermanyGreeceHungaryIcelandIrelandIsraelItalyJapanKoreaLuxembourgMexicoNetherlandNew ZealandNorwayPolandPortugalSlovak RepublicSloveniaSpainSwedenSwitzerlandTurkeyUnited KingdomUnited States
A world of change – higher education
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 700.0
5,000.0
10,000.0
15,000.0
20,000.0
25,000.0
30,000.0
2008 Ex
pend
itur
e pe
r st
uden
t at
ter
tiary
leve
l (U
SD)
Tertiary-type A graduation rate
Finland
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The composition of the global talent pool has changed…
Countries’ share in the population with tertiary education, for 25-34 and 55-64 year-old age groups, percentage (2009)
55-64-year-old population 25-34-year-old population
About 39 million people who attained tertiary level
About 81 million people who attained tertiary level
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The composition of the global talent pool has changed…
Countries’ share in the population with tertiary education, for 25-34 and 55-64 year-old age groups, percentage (2009)
United States, 31.7
Japan, 11.0
China, 6.1Germany, 5.6
United Kingdom, 4.7
Canada, 3.7
France, 3.1
Brazil, 3.1
Spain, 1.9Italy, 1.7
Mexico, 1.6
Australia, 1.5
Korea, 1.4other, 11.4
55-64-year-old population
United States, 17.9
Japan, 9.5
China, 16.0
Germany, 2.7United Kingdom, 3.9
Canada, 2.7France, 3.5
Brazil, 3.9
Spain, 3.1
Italy, 1.7
Mexico, 3.4
Australia, 1.4
Korea, 5.0
other, 12.6
25-34-year-old population
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…and will continue to changeShare of new entrants into tertiary education in 2009 (all OECD and G20
countries)
China, 36.6%
United States, 12.9%
Russian Federa-tion, 10.0%
Indonesia, 4.9%Japan, 4.2%Turkey, 3.7%
United Kingdom, 3.3%
Mexico, 3.1%Korea, 3.1%
Argentina, 2.7%Germany, 2.5%
Poland, 2.1%
Spain, 1.6%Italy, 1.4%
Australia, 1.3%Chile, 1.3%
Netherlands, 0.5%
Other countries, 4.8%
OtherPortugal 0.5%Czech Republic 0.4%Israel 0.4%Sweden 0.4%Belgium 0.4%Hungary 0.4%Austria 0.4%New Zealand 0.3%Switzerland 0.3%Slovak Republic 0.3%Denmark 0.2%Norway 0.2%Ireland 0.2%Finland 0.2%Slovenia 0.1%Estonia 0.1%Iceland 0.0%
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The increase in the number of knowledge workers has not led to a decrease in their pay
…which is what happened to low-skilled workers
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DenmarkSwedenTurkey
New ZealandNorway
SpainAustralia
NetherlandsBelgiumFinland
JapanFrance
GermanyAustria
OECD AverageCanada
United KingdomPoland
SloveniaHungary
Czech RepublicIreland
KoreaItaly
United StatesPortugal
-400,000 -200,000 0 200,000 400,000 600,000 800,000
55,946 62,481
64,177 74,457
92,320 95,320
100,520 112,928
115,464 135,515 143,018
144,133 147,769
173,522 175,067
175,670 207,653
215,125 225,663 230,098
240,449 253,947
300,868 311,966
323,808 373,851
Foregone earnings Income tax effect Social contribution effectTransfers effect Grosss earnings benefits Unemployment effectNet Present value
USD equivalentC hart A9.3
Components of the private net present value for a man with higher education (2007 or latest available
year)
Net present value in USD equ.
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her OECD countries Tertiary
Below upper secondary
Australia 1.6 1.6 0.8 0.8
Austria* 2.8 2.8 -6.0 -6.0
Belgium* 3.7 3.7 -0.6 -0.6
Canada* 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2
Czech Republic 9.1 9.1 2.9 2.9
Denmark 3.2 3.2 -4.9 -4.9
Finland* -6.2 -6.2 -2.5 -2.5
France -3.6 -3.6 1.4 1.4
Germany 21.6 21.6 7.3 7.3
Hungary 11.1 11.1 1.4 1.4
Ireland* 10.9 10.9 -5.4 -5.4
Israel* 2.7 2.7 1.1 1.1
Italy* 11.7 11.7 1.0 1.0
Korea* -9.7 -9.7 2.2 2.2
Luxembourg* 16.8 16.8 -12.6 -12.6
Netherlands* 10.8 10.8 -2.4 -2.4
New Zealand -2.1 -2.1 -2.2 -2.2
Norway* -5.5 -5.5 -5.6 -5.6
Poland* 6.1 6.1 0.7 0.7
Portugal -8.7 -8.7 5.8 5.8
Slovenia* -7.4 -7.4 -0.3 -0.3
Spain* 12.5 12.5 0.9 0.9
Sweden -5.2 -5.2 -6.0 -6.0
Switzerland 1.2 1.2 -1.0 -1.0
United Kingdom -3.2 -3.2 1.0 1.0
United States 13.0 13.0 -0.5 -0.5
* Limited years; Other notes: Yellow within +/- 3%; Red > -3%; Green > +3%TA8.2a
Percentage-point change in relative earnings 25-64 year-olds (1998-2008 or latest available years)
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Skills and social outcomes
Level 5 Level 4 Level 3 Level 2 Level 11.0
1.2
1.4
1.6
1.8
2.0
2.2
2.4
2.6Has fair to poor health
Does not volunteer for charity or non-profit organizations
Poor understanding of po-litical issues facing coun-try
Poor level of general trust
Higher propensity of be-lieving people try to take of advantage of others
Lower propensity to reciprocate
Poor political efficacyPIAAC skill level
Odds ratios
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Taxpayers are getting a good return too
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TurkeyDenmark
SpainSweden
New ZealandNorwayFranceJapan
CanadaCzech Republic
ItalyAustralia
IrelandKorea
PortugalAustria
OECD AveragePoland
NetherlandsUnited Kingdom
FinlandSloveniaHungaryBelgium
GermanyUnited States
0 50,000 100,000 150,000 200,000 250,000
21,724
28,621
29,58237,542
46,482
43,41963,701
67,411
79,77481,307
82,93284,532
85,91789,034
89,46489,705
91,036
94,12595,030
95,322
100,177155,664
166,872167,241
168,649
193,584
Public benefits Public costs
Chart A9.5 In equivalent USD
Public cost and benefits for a man obtaining tertiary education (2007 or latest available year)
Net present value
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Consumption or economic use?
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Chart A7.3
Skills acquisition and use, 25-64 year-olds
with a tertiary education (2009)
Brazil
Turkey
Italy
Portugal
Czech Republic
Slovak Republic
Mexico
Austria
Hungary
Poland
Chile
Slovenia
Greece
Germany
France
Spain
OECD Average
Netherlands Iceland
Sweden
Belgium
Denmark
Luxembourg
Switzerland
IrelandEstonia
Norway
AustraliaFinland
United Kingdom
Korea
New Zealand
United States
Japan
Israel
Canada
73
75
77
79
81
83
85
87
89
91
10 20 30 40 50
Proportion of population with tertiary education, %
Em
plo
ym
ent
rate
of
popula
tion w
ith t
ert
iary
educa
tion,
%%
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International mobility
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An increasingly mobile student population
In 2009, over 3.7 million tertiary students were enrolled outside their country of citizenship
New players are emerging in an increasingly competitive market for international education
Australia and the Russian Federation expanded their market share by two percentage points over the past decade, and Korea, New Zealand and Spain by one percentage point each
Share of the USA dropped from 23% to 18%Germany, the UK and Belgium also lost ground
Largest numbers of international students are from China, India and Korea
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Evolution by region of destination in the number of students enrolled outside their
country of citizenship (2000 to 2009)
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 0
500 000
1 000 000
1 500 000
2 000 000
2 500 000
3 000 000
3 500 000
4 000 000
Worldwide in OECD in EU countriesin G20 countries in North America
Chart C3.1
Number of foreign students
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Distribution of foreign students in tertiary education, by country of destination (2009)
Percentage of foreign tertiary students (reported to the OECD) who are enrolled in each country of destination
United States 18.0
United Kingdom 9.9
Australia 7.0
Germany 7.0
France 6.8
Canada 5.2Russian Federation 3.7
Japan 3.6
Spain 2.3New Zealand 1.9Italy 1.8
China 1.7
South Africa 1.7
Austria 1.6
Korea 1.4
Switzerland 1.3
Belgium 1.3
Netherlands 1.2
Sweden 1.1
Other OECD countries 6.0
Other non-OECD countries 15.7
Chart C3.2
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Trends in international education market shares
Percentage of all foreign tertiary students enrolled by destination
Un
ite
d S
tate
s
Un
ite
d K
ing
do
m
Au
str
ali
a
Ge
rma
ny
Fra
nce
Ca
na
da
Ru
ssia
n F
ed
era
...
Jap
an
Sp
ain
Ne
w Z
ea
lan
d
Ita
ly
Ch
ina
So
uth
Afr
ica
Au
str
ia
Ko
rea
Sw
itze
rla
nd
Be
lgiu
m
Ne
the
rla
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s
Sw
ed
en
Oth
er
OE
CD
Oth
er
no
n-O
EC
D
0
5
10
15
20
25
2000 2009
Chart C3.3
Market share (%)
The figure for other non-OECD countries refers to the part of the total foreign students studying in other G20 and non-OECD countries and is obtained after subtracting China, South Africa and the Russian Federation from the total in non-OECD destinations as estimated from UNESCO data.
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Percentage of international students changing status and staying on in selected OECD countries, 2008 or
2009
Ca
na
da
Fra
nce
Cze
ch R
ep
ub
lic
Au
stra
lia
Ne
the
rla
nd
s
Ge
rma
ny
Un
ite
d K
ing
do
m
No
rwa
y
Fin
lan
d
Ne
w Z
ea
lan
d
Jap
an
Ire
lan
d
Sp
ain
Au
stri
a
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
Chart C3.5
%
Percentage of students who have changed their status (whether for work, family or other reasons) among students who have not renewed their permits
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Distribution of foreign students in tertiary education, by country of origin (2009)
China, 16.5
India, 6.2
Korea, 3.8
Germany, 2.9
France, 1.6
United States, 1.6
Russian Fed-eration, 1.6
Turkey, 1.4Canada, 1.4
Japan, 1.4
Italy, 1.3
Indonesia, 1.1Saudi Arabia, 1.0
Poland, 1.0
Other OECD countries, 9.8
Other non-OECD G20 countries, 1.3
Other non-OECD non-G20 countries, 46.0
T C3.2
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Who pays for what, when and how?
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Un
ite
d S
tate
sK
ore
aC
an
ad
aC
hile
Fin
lan
dN
orw
ay
Isra
el
Ne
w Z
ea
lan
dS
we
de
nN
eth
erl
an
ds
Au
stra
liaO
EC
D a
ve
rag
ePo
lan
dIr
ela
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Fra
nce
Be
lgiu
mPo
rtu
ga
lA
ust
ria
Me
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oS
pa
inU
nit
ed
Kin
gd
om
Cze
ch R
ep
ub
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wit
zerl
an
dG
erm
an
yS
love
nia
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lyS
lova
k R
ep
ub
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un
ga
ryB
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uss
ian
Fe
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pa
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Ice
lan
dA
rge
nti
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0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
Total expenditure on educational institutionsResearch and development (R&D)Ancillary services (transport, meals, housing provided by institutions)Educational core services
Chart B6.2
% of GDP
Expenditure on core services, R&D and ancillary services in tertiary educational institutions
as a percentage of GDP (2008)
5555 6
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Po
lan
dK
ore
aS
pa
inPo
rtu
ga
lE
sto
nia
Un
ite
d K
ing
do
mA
ust
ria
Cze
ch R
ep
ub
licFin
lan
dJa
pa
nFra
nce
Me
xic
oD
en
ma
rkIr
ela
nd
Ca
na
da
OE
CD
ave
rag
eN
orw
ay
Be
lgiu
mIt
aly
Au
stra
liaG
erm
an
yS
we
de
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lova
k R
ep
ub
licIc
ela
nd
Ne
the
rla
nd
sU
nit
ed
Sta
tes
Bra
zil
Isra
el
Hu
ng
ary
Ch
ile
708090
100110120130140150160170180190200210
Change in expenditure
Change in the number of students (in full-time equivalents)
Change in expenditure per student
Chart B1.6
Index of change (2000 = 100)
Changes in student numbers and expenditure
for tertiary educationIndex of change between 2000 and 2008 (2000=100, 2008 constant prices)
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Share of private expenditure on tertiary educational institutions (2000, 2005, 2008)
percentage, by level of education
Ch
ile
Ko
rea
Jap
an
Un
ite
d K
ing
do
m
Un
ite
d S
tate
s
Au
stra
lia
Isra
el
Ca
na
da
Po
rtu
ga
l
Po
lan
d
Me
xic
o
OE
CD
ave
rag
e
Ne
w Z
ea
lan
d
Ita
ly
Ne
the
rla
nd
s
Slo
va
k R
ep
ub
lic
Est
on
ia
Sp
ain
Cze
ch R
ep
ub
lic
Fra
nce
Ire
lan
d
Slo
ve
nia
Au
stri
a
Ge
rma
ny
Sw
ed
en
Be
lgiu
m
Ice
lan
d
Fin
lan
d
De
nm
ark
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
2008 2005 2000
Chart B3.3
%
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This chart does not take into
account grants, subsidies or loans that partially or fully offset the students’ tuition
fees
Average annual tuition fees charged by tertiary-type A public institutions for full-time national students
(academic year 2008-09)
Portugal (84%, 10 373), Italy (50%, 9 556),
Spain (46%, 13 928),
Czech Republic (59%, 8 738), Denmark (55%, 17 634), Finland (69%, 15 402), Ireland (51%, 16 284), Iceland (77%, 10 429), Mexico (35%, 7 504), Norway
(77%, 18 942), Sweden (68%, 20 864)
Canada (m, 24 384)
New Zealand (78%, 11 125)
Japan (49%, 16 533), Australia (94%, 16 297),
Netherlands (63%, 17 245)
United Kingdom1 (61%, 15 314)
Belgium (Fr. and Fl.) (m, m)France (m, 14 945)
0
500
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
USD
Chart B5.2
1. Public institutions do not exist at this level of education and most students are enrolled in government-dependent private institutions.
United States (70%, 29 910)6000
Korea (71%, 10 109)
Austria (54%, 15 081), Switzerland (41%, 23 284)
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TurkeyCzech Rep.
KoreaPoland
PortugalHungary
SpainNew Zealand
BelgiumAustralia
OECD averageItaly
FinlandNorwaySwedenCanada
DenmarkGermany
AustriaUnited Kingdom
Netherlands
-100,000 -50,000 0 50,000 100,000
23,899 38,466
43,039 44,268
46,603 52,065 56,077
59,711 61,658
71,057 79,821
85,603 94,315
98,176 99,960
100,378 103,660
112,018 119,458
124,906 161,110
Private foregone earnings Public direct costPublic foregone earnings Total investment private + public in USD equivalent
USD equivalent
Public costsPrivate costs
Chart A9.4
Public and private investment for a man obtaining higher education (2007 or latest
available year)
Total investment private+pu
blic
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