global trends in solar pv markets and policies

ATRAA 2010Alice Springs, 6 August 2010

Global trends in solar PV markets and policies

Renewable Energy and Energy Efficiency Partnership (REEEP)

ATRAA 2010Alice Springs, Australia6 August 2010

Eva OberenderRegional Director REEEP South East Asia & Pacific


“global warming alarmism is challenging our freedom”

“environmentalists are only attempting to limit our democratic liberties”

“leave it to the market – market forces will determine what we should do”


Solar is the unlimited energy potential – PV, solar thermal and CSP will play a critical role in future energy mix


Source: http://www.meteonorm.com

The Asian and Pacific region is rich in solar power potential


Current performance and price of different PV module technologies *


Wind and PV equipment show significant cost reductions


Source: World Energy Outlook 2008, IEA

The major share of the estimated 45% increase in world energy demand by 2030 will take place in Asia


0

500

1 000

1 500

2 000

2 500

3 000

3 500

4 000

2006‐2015 2015‐2030

TWh

Geothermal, tide and waveSolarBiomassWindHydroNuclearFossil fuels

Source: World Energy Outlook 2008, IEA

At this stage solar is estimated to account only for ~70TWh of energy infrastructure investments up to 2030.

The estimated €6 trillion investment in Asian energy infrastructure will primarily go into fossil fuels based projects


• China:

– Has rolled out two solar programs to date

• a rooftop solar subsidy of 20 RMB/Wp for systems >50kWp

• Golden Sun Program which provides a rebate for systems >300 KW (50% for on grid and 70% for off grid)

– a feed in tariff for solar PV, US$0.20 per kilowatt hour of electricity

• India:

– Launched generation based incentive with the target of 50MW solar power

• Feed‐in tariff for grid connected PV: 12Rs/kWh

• Feed‐in tariff for grid connected solar thermal: 10Rs/kWh

– The new “Solar India” plan aims to have 20,000 MW of PV and solar thermal by 2020

Many countries already recognize the importance of solar energy


Global PV market is still Europe driven – with 22.9GW global installed capacity in 2009, PV accounts currently only for 0.2% of global electricity production


Source: EPIA - http://www.epia.org/policy-driven-scenario

Asia could account for 1/3 of the global PV market by 2013, resulting in 6000MW installed capacity


A handful of countries with strong policy regimes account for 80% of global installed PV capacity; new countries have emerged as important players in the last few years.

Source: IEA 2010


Source: IEA PVPS

The PV market has experienced rapid growth, with an average of annual growth rate of 40%

There was a 30-fold increase of worldwide grid-connected PV Power within the last 8 years


Feed-in tariffs are the main regulatory driver for RE in EU


ROCs, which form the basis for UK’s RE support, are supplemented by PV FiT


Thanks to FiT, Germany overachieved its 2010 RES target (12.5%) in 2007


Overinflated FiT can cause unexpected growth, as seen in Spain


Change to FiTs have a major market impact


Investors ask for attractive profit margins and fair market conditions


Global renewable production is expected to double every decade


Source: IEA 2010

Current technologies will co-exist with emerging technologies and novel concepts


There will be a shift from residential to large-scale PV application over time

Source: IEA 2010


Electricity from CSP plants as shares of total electricity consumption


DESERTEC will satisfy a substantial part of the energy needs of theMiddle East and North Africa, and meet as much as 15% of Europe’s electricity demand by 2050


Energy demand in the ASEAN-6 countries more than doubled from 1990 to 2007


The RE technologies with the potential to make major contribution in the medium term to 2030 are primarily those which have already reached, or are close to, market competitiveness


Technical/infrastructure barriers (including grid-related barriers) rank highest in obstacles identified in ASEAN countries, followed by administrative and market-related hurdles.


• The global solar market has significant momentum, and is not tied to the price of oil alone

• However, the market remains policy driven until grid parity is reached– Policy uncertainty can adversely affect investor willingness to

support large-scale installations or new startups• The market is diversifying, thanks to the rapid maturation of solar

technologies– Thin film solar technology expands the market for PV and

accelerates the trend toward grid parity– Concentrating solar technology is rapidly being adopted by

utilities for centralized power generation– Traditional flat-plate PV continues its rapid decline in cost

thanks to an influx of suppliers in Asia

Solar Outlook


• REEEP acts as a market facilitator by reducing market barriers for renewables and energy efficiency systems and focus on:

• policy/regulation development and improvement

• finance and business models

• REEEP is driven by a bottom‐up approach to meet the real needs on the ground

• REEEP works with governments as well as with the private sector

• REEEP is committed to the achievement of MDGs and aims to improve access to sustainable clean energy for the poor

REEEP is a vehicle to provide necessary support for RE and EE market acceleration


Regional Secretariats delivering value


• In most countries market forces alone cannot boost wide utilization of solar technologies

• Supportive policies which provide financial support are key for the market development

• Subsidies on fossil fuels based energy can jeopardize the solar power market

• R&D on grid connection and storage is critical for the wide‐spread solar implementation

• International standards and technological harmonization would allow more effective marketing of solar products

• Improve capacity building should promote solar power applications

REEEP is technology neutral, but sees PV and solar thermal as key energy technologies


Provision of sustainable lighting through microfinance


REEEP projects in the Pacific region


REEEP tools

www.reegle.info search engine

www.retscreen.net

free RE project development software

http://www.reegle.info/



thank you


questions?

REEEP

Eva OberenderRegional Director, REEEP Southeast Asia & Pacific

T: +61 410 277 393 [email protected]

www.reeep.org

www.reegle.infowww.cleanenergycouncil.org.au

mailto:[email protected]

http://www.reeep.org/


http://www.cleanenergycouncil.org.au/


44

• Australia plans to invest $1.6 billion in solar technologies, including new funding of $1.365 billion in a Solar Flagships program (1000MW ) helping position Australia as a world leader in this vital energy technology for the future;

• China launches green power revolution to catch up on west. The plan is to hit 20% renewables target by 2020 with $30bn to be invested in low carbon projects. Solar technology play a key role in this.

• Malaysia will soon implement the feed-in tariff for solar to enable users to sell excess power to the power grid

• India plans 20,000 MW of solar thermal and photovoltaic energy up and running by 2020 and by investing $1bn to become world solar leader.

• The world largest Solar Energy project ( 5GW ) is going to be built in Gujarat/India. The Indian Company Bhoskar Silicon has announced that it will be building a 250 MW integrated solar power complex in West Bengal.

News on Solar Power


• China has rolled out two solar programs to date

‐ a rooftop solar subsidy of 20 RMB/watt for systems >50KW

‐ Golden sun Program which provides a rebate for systems >300 KW ( 50% for on grid and 70% for off grid )

• Provincial programs for PV such as in Jiangsu, Beijing • Special targets for solar heat application for 2010 which should have an

accumulated heat collection area 150 mil. M2

• Solar water heater: annual production 23 mil m2, accumulated 130 mil m2, 60% of the world production

• Solar PV: a record manufacturing capacity 1GW, increased by 600MW, largest PV manufacturer in the world

China is expected unveil feed in tariff for solar PV which could fall between US$0.16 and US$0.22 per kilowatt hour of electricity


• “Solar India” plan adopts a three‐phased approach with a preliminary goal of installing 200 MW of solar energy capacity by 2012. By the year 2022, Solar India hopes to have 20,000 MW of solar thermal and photovoltaic energy up and running, in detail it contains the following targets:

‐ To create favorable conditions for solar manufacturing capability, particularly solar thermal for indigenous production and market leadership.‐ To promote programs for off grid applications, reaching 1000 MW by 2017 and 2000 MW by 2022 .‐ To achieve 15 million sq. meters solar thermal collector area by 2017 and 20 million by 2022.‐ To deploy 20 million solar lighting systems for rural areas by 2022.

• Generation based incentives which would be received by any solar generation project commissioned after December 2009 with a ceiling of Rs 11.40/KWh

• Generation Based Incentive scheme ( GBI) targets generation of a minimum of 1MW and aims to promote a total capacity of 50MWp within 2007 ‐2012. Under this scheme an overall tariff of Rs 15 per KWh is guaranteed

India has announced the “Solar India” plan on December 1st 2009 with estimated costs of $1b


According to TEC’s General Manager, Mr Mafalu Lotolua, “the development of renewable energy resources to diversify Tuvalu’s energy mix offers some degree of energy security for the country”. Renewable energy resources such as solar, wind and biofuel (mainly derived from coconut oil) provide a good prospect for broadening and diversifying Tuvalu’s energy supply resources.

Renewable Energy is critical for energy security and economic growth, particularly for small islands


Tuvalu has set a 100% renewable energy target by 2020

It will cost $20 million to generate all electricity from solar and wind and end dependence on diesel

“We look forward to the day when our nation offers an example to all –powered entirely by natural resources such as the sun and the wind”Kausea Natano, Tuvalu Minister for Public Utilities and Industries

Source: Tom Roper, Climate Institute

Islands are becoming leaders in Renewable Energy


Renewable Energy and Energy Efficiency Partnershipan international partnership established at the 2002 World Summit on Sustainable Development in Johannesburg

working primarily in developing countries and in countries in transition


facilitating the development of market conditions for the accelerated uptake of renewable energy and energy efficient technologies through:

structuring policy and regulatory initiatives for clean energy, and

facilitating financing for clean energy projects

REEEP adds unique value of bringing the private sector to the table

REEEP’s focus


Currently some 300 partners:

• 42 Governments

• International organisations, NGOs and businesses, universities

REEEP partners- businesses- G8 countries- developing

countries- NGOs


Regional Secretariats delivering value


REEEP’s goals:increase the sustainability of demand and supply side of energy systems

reduce market barriers and financial obstacles for renewables and energy efficiency systems

establish on-the-ground project activities that are targeting policy improvements and innovative finance mechanisms

improve energy access for the poor through reliable and clean energy services

replicate success across the developed and developing world


Regional Projects

Regulatory and Policy Issues

Finance and Business

Added Value of REEEP:ReplicationImplementationLeverage

Services

Information Gateway “reegle"

Publications

Toolkits

Strategic Events

Strategic Activities

SERN

REIL

EEC

Green Community Clusters

Utility Programme

Small Energy Provider Programme

In 130 projects REEEP has provided support to governments and private sector for RE and EE uptake


• Aim: Implement a legislative framework for PV

• Use a consultative process involving key stakeholders, NGOs, the Ministry of Mines and Energy, the regulator ANEEL and Financial Institutions

• Develop a set of guidelines and recommendations for the implementation of a successful solar roofs programme

• Prepare and present legislation and regulation drafts

• Conduct comprehensive analysis on the type and quantity of incentives and subsidies, as well as the consequent impacts on tariffs

• Implementing agency: RENOVE

Implementation Support of Brazil Grid-Connected Solar Photovoltaic Roofs Programme


• Aim: Use SWH for electricity peak shaving Save 1 MW of electricity during peak hours by installing 500 solar water heaters

• Establish standards and guidelines for integrating solar water heaters in buildings

• Capacity building of large number of private sector engineers to install and maintain solar water heating systems

• Prepare an investment plan to finance replication and scale up of solar water heater use

• Implementing Agency: Ministry of Energy and Mines Development

Promotion of Solar Water Heating in Uganda


• Aim: To establish a fund to development a market of large scale SWH in South Africa

• Development of a business plan for a €1.75 million SWH investment facility – fund ‐including technical assistance

• Secure financial commitment from prospective financiers and donors

• Organise a market development and training workshop with relevant stakeholders to develop an investment pipeline

• Implement the fund and evaluate the scaling up to a larger second fund

• Implementing Agency: E+Co

Commercialization of Large Scale Solar Water Heating Systems in South Africa


Aim: Reduce the current 60% loss of energy in the building sector of China through SHW Investigation of ten current low‐energy building programmes in five representative Chinese citiesReview of best practices in sustainable building programmes in three European countriesDevelopment of policy recommendations to promote the incorporation of SHW technologies into the building sector in ChinaImplementing Agency: CNERCHS/Ecofys

Promoting Low-Energy Use Building Programmes in China


• Aim: Replace kerosene lamps with solar lanterns

• Establish a micro ESCO with a micro credit facility in remote rural areas on the Solomon Islands and in Kiribati allowing barter payments in kind

• Identification and training of local entrepreneurs for servicing solar lamps

• Explore linkages with carbon Finance

• Implementing Agency: SOPAC

Pacific Micro Energy Service Companies (PMESCOs) on the Solomon Islands and in Kiribati

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