Global WarmingWill Human-Induced Climate Change Destroy the World?

By Rich Deemwww.GodAndScience.org

Note: This slideshow is NOT meant to be printed. View in slideshow mode only because of extensive builds and animations. Go to the website for a printable copy. Requires PowerPoint 2003 or PowerPoint Viewer 2003.

IntroductionIs the world getting warmer?If so, are the actions of mankind to blame for earths temperature increases?What can/should be done about these issues?Are the potential resolutions worth the cost to implement them?

History of Earths ClimateEarth formed ~4.6 billion years agoOriginally very hotSuns energy output only 70% of presentLiquid water present ~4.3 billion years ago (zircon dating)Much of earths early history erased during late heavy bombardment (~3.9 billion years ago)

History of Earths ClimateLife appeared ~3.8 billion years agoPhotosynthesis began 3.5-2.5 billion years agoProduced oxygen and removed carbon dioxide and methane (greenhouse gases)Earth went through periods of cooling (Snowball Earth) and warmingEarth began cycles of glacial and interglacial periods ~3 million years ago

Earths Temperature

Earths Temperature

Earths Temperature

Earths Temperature

Greenhouse EffectSun

Earths Atmospheric Gases>99%

SunRunaway Greenhouse Effect97% carbon dioxide3% nitrogenWater & sulfuric acid cloudsTemperature: 860F

Carbon Dioxide

170220270320370420200000400000600000Time (YBP)CO2 (ppm) Vostok Ice CoreDome ConcordiaCarbon Dioxide Levels0

Worldwide Carbon EmissionsCarbon (109 metric tons)012345678175018001850190019502000Year

Annual Carbon Emissions19551965197519851995200504682YearCarbon (109 metric tons)

Future Carbon Dioxide LevelsIncreasing CO2 emissions, especially in China and developing countriesLikely to double within 150 years:Increased coal usageIncreased natural gas usageDecreased petroleum usage (increased cost and decreasing supply)

Kyoto ProtocolAdopted in 1997Cut CO2 emissions by 5% from 1990 levels for 2008-2012Symbolic only, since cuts will not significantly impact global warming

Past Temperatures

-0.6-0.4-0.20.00.20.40.60.81880190019201940196019802000YearD Mean Temperature (C)Recorded Worldwide Temperatures

Historic Los Angeles Temperatures

2009 Temperature Changes Compared to 1951-19802009 Temperature Changes Compared to 1951-1980

Past Temperatures MeasurementProxy a method that approximates a particular measurement (e.g., temperature)Tree ringsIce coresPollen recordsPlant macrofossilsSr/Ca isotope dataOxygen isotopes from speleothem calcite (stalactites and stalagmites)

Temperature History of the EarthLittle ice age (1400-1840) 1C cooler Medieval warm period (800-1300) 1C warmer than todayCool/warm cycles occur ~1,500 yearsAffect mostly Northeastern U.S. and North AtlanticMostly due to changes in thermohaline circulation Dramatic shutdown of thermohaline circulation occurred 8,200 years ago as a large lake in Canada flooded the North Atlantic

Main Ocean CurrentsAdapted from IPCC SYR Figure 4-2

Temperature History of the EarthFor the past 3 million years, the earth has been experiencing ~100,000 year long cycles of glaciation followed by ~10,000 year long interglacial periodsThese climate periods are largely the result of cycles in the earths orbit precession, obliquity, and eccentricity

Orbital Parameters: PrecessionPerihelionApehelion

Orbital Parameters: Obliquity

Orbital Parameters: EccentricityMinimum: 0.005Maximum: 0.061Not to scale!To Scale!

Orbital Parameters & Earths ClimateAge (kya)10009008007006005004003002001000

Temperature History of the EarthFor the past 3 million years, the earth has been experiencing ~100,000 year long cycles of glaciation followed by ~10,000 year long interglacial periodsLast ice age began to thaw 15,000 years ago, but was interrupted by the Younger Dryas event 12,900 years ago

Younger Dryas Event-55-50-45-40-35-30-2505101520Age (kya)Temperature (C)0.050.100.150.200.250.300.35Snow Accumulation (m/yr)

Younger Dryas Event-44-43-42-41-40-39-38-37-36-35-34d18O (Greenland)-8.0-7.5-7.0-6.5-6.0-5.5-5.0-4.5-4.010111213141516d18O (China)Younger DryasAge (kya)

Temperature History of the EarthMiddle Pliocene (3.15 to 2.85 million ya)Temperatures: 2C higher than today.20C higher at high latitudes1C higher at the EquatorSea levels were 100 ft higherCausesCO2 levels that were 100 ppm higherIncreased thermohaline circulation

Temperature History of the EarthEocene (41 million years ago)Opening of the Drake Passage (between South America and Antarctica).Increased ocean current exchangeStrong global cooling First permanent glaciation of Antarctica ~34 million years ago

Temperature History of the EarthPaleocene Thermal Maximum (55 mya)Sea surface temperatures rose 5-8CCausesIncreased volcanismRapid release of methane from the oceans

Temperature History of the EarthMid-Cretaceous (120-90 mya)Much warmerBreadfruit trees grew in GreenlandCausesDifferent ocean currents (continental arrangement)higher CO2 levels (at least 2 to 4 times higher than today, up to 1200 ppm)

Breecker D O et al. PNAS 2010;107:576-5806000500040003000200010000306090Atmospheric CO2Concentration (ppmV)Continental Glaciation(Paleolatitude)4003002001000PaleozoicMesozoicCenozoicSDCarbPTrJKPgNgA Compilation of Phanerozoic Atmospheric CO2 Records

Recent Temperature Changes

Hockey Stick Controversy100012001400160018002000-0.8Year-0.6-0.4-0.200.20.40.6Temperature Change (C)Direct temperature measurementsMann et al. 1999

The Problem with Tree Rings100012001400160018002000-0.6Year-0.5-0.4-0.300.10.20.3Temperature Change (C)-0.2-0.1Jones et al. 1998Briffa et al. 1999Mann et al. 1999

What Influences Tree Rings?TemperatureRainfallCarbon dioxide concentration

Mann et al. 1999Esper et al. 200280010001200140016001800-2-1012Temperature Change (C)2000YearIs the Hockey Stick Correct?

Is the Hockey Stick Correct?-1.2-1.0-0.8-0.6-0.4-0.20.00.20.40400800120016002000YearTemperature Change (C)

U.S. National Academy of Sciences: June 2006100012001400160018002000-0.8Year-0.6-0.4-0.200.20.40.6Temperature Change (C)

-1.0-0.50.00.51.01.5198019902000Year-0.6-0.4-0.20.00.20.40.60.8198019902000YearTemperature Cgange (C)Atmospheric TemperaturesTroposphereStratosphere

1702202703203700200000400000600000Time (YBP)CO2 (ppm) Antarctica 25262728293031SST (C) Tropical PacificCO2 Concentration Vs. Temperature

Consequences of Global Warming

Global Warming Primarily Impacts the Northern Hemisphere-0.6-0.4-0.20.00.20.40.60.81.0192019602000YearTemperature Change (C)192019602000YearNorthern vs. Southern LatitudeLand vs. OceanNorthern HemisphereSouthern HemisphereLandOcean

2009 Temperature Changes Compared to 1951-1980

Ice Sheets Melting?GRACE (gravity measured by satellite) found melting of Antarctica equivalent to sea level rise of 0.4 mm/year (2 in/century)Zwally, 2005 (satellite radar altimetry) confirmed Antarctica meltingGreenland ice melting on exterior, accumulating inland (higher precipitation)

Melting Glaciers Mt. Kilimanjaro

10008006004002000-200-400-600200320042005Ice Mass (km3)YearChanges in Antarctica Ice Mass

Rise in Sea Levels?Present rate is 1.8 0.3 mm/yr (7.4 in/century)Accelerating at a rate of 0.013 0.006 mm/yr2If acceleration continues, could result in 12 in/century sea level riseScenarios claiming 1 meter or more rise are unrealistic

Changing Sea Levels1700175018001850190019502000-20-1001020Relative Sea Level (cm)Adapted from IPCC SYR Figure 2-5Amsterdam, NetherlandsBrest, FranceSwinoujscie, Poland

Time (KYBP)Sea Level (m)200-20-40-60-80-100-120Sea Levels for 450,000 Years45040035030025020015010050025262728293031SST (C) Tropical Pacific

Increase in Hurricanes?Two studies showed the total number of hurricanes has not changedHowever, the intensity of hurricanes has increased (more category 4 and 5 hurricanes and cyclones)Probably due to higher sea surface temperatures (more energy)Difficult to know if this trend will continue

How Much Temperature Increase?Some models propose up to 9C increase this centuryTwo studies put the minimum at 1.5C and maximum at 4.5C or 6.2CAnother study puts the minimum at 2.5C

Wildlife EffectsPolar BearsRequire pack ice to liveMight eventually go extinct in the wildSea turtlesBreed on the same islands as their birthCould go extinct on some islands as beaches are floodedOther species may go extinct as rainfall patterns change throughout the world

Effect on HumansFewer deaths from cold, more from heatDecreased thermohaline circulationCooler temperatures in North AtlanticCO2 fertilization effectPrecipitation changesDroughts and famine (some areas)Expanded arable land in Canada, Soviet Union

Potential Worldwide Precipitation Changes

Drought in AfricaLake FaguibineLake Chad

Cost to Stabilize CO2 Concentrations450550650750180016001400120010008006004002000Carbon Dioxide (ppm)Cost (Trillons U.S. Dollars)

Possible Solutions to Global Warming

Mitigation of Global WarmingConservationReduce energy needsRecyclingAlternate energy sourcesNuclearWindGeothermalHydroelectricSolarFusion?

Storage of CO2 in Geological FormationsDepleted oil and gas reservoirsCO2 in enhanced oil and gas recoveryDeep saline formations (a) offshore (b) onshoreCO2 in enhanced coal bed methane recoveryAdapted from IPCC SRCCS Figure TS-73a23b14

Global Warming Myths

Global Warming Has Stopped?-0.20.00.20.40.60.81975198019851990199520002005YearD Mean Temperature (C)2010

Volcanoes Put Out More CO2 Than Fossil Fuel Burning0246810Carbon (109 metric tons)

Global Warming is Caused by Sunspots-0.6-0.4-0.20.00.20.40.60.81880190019201940196019802000YearD Mean Temperature (C)050100150200250Sunspots

Hadley Temperatures Vs. Sunspots-2.0-1.5-1.0-0.50.01.01.5175018001850190019502000YearD Mean Temperature (C)050100150200250Sunspots

Global Warming is Caused by GCR-0.4-0.20.00.20.40.60.81.01950196019701980199020002010YearD Mean Temperature (C)

CO2 Vs. Sea LevelCO2 Vs. Temperature0100000200000300000400000500000Time (ybp)Rohling et al. 2009. Antarctic temperature and global sea level closely coupled over the last five glacial cycles. Nature Geoscience 2:500.

Global Warming is Due to Urban Heat Islands2009 Temperature Changes Compared to 1951-1980

Mt. Kilimanjaro Glaciers are Melting Because of Global Warming

Global Warming Primarily Impacts the Northern Hemisphere-0.6-0.4-0.20.00.20.40.60.81.0192019602000YearTemperature Change (C)Northern vs. Southern LatitudeNorthern HemisphereSouthern Hemisphere

Sea Levels Will Rise 5-6 ft?Present rate is 1.8 0.3 mm/yr (7.4 in/century)Accelerating at a rate of 0.013 0.006 mm/yr2If acceleration continues, could result in 12 in/century sea level riseScenarios claiming 1 meter or more rise are unrealisticRecently, the California State Lands Commission said that sea levels could rise 55 inches this century, inundating ports

Changing Sea Levels1700175018001850190019502000-20-1001020Relative Sea Level (cm)Adapted from IPCC SYR Figure 2-5Amsterdam, NetherlandsBrest, FranceSwinoujscie, Poland

How Much Temperature Increase?Global warming alarmists propose up to 9C increase this centuryTwo studies put the minimum at 1.5C and maximum at 4.5C or 6.2CAnother study puts the minimum at 2.5C

Predictions Vs. RealityHansen, J. 1988. Journal Of Geophysical Research 93:9241.Exponential Increase in carbon emissionsModerate reduction in carbon emissionsDrastic reduction in carbon emissionsObserved temps through 1988

Temperature ExtrapolationDT (C)1.51.00.50-0.4Date19802000202020402060208021002.52.01960

ConclusionsGlobal warming is happeningMost warming is probably the result of human activitiesThere will be positive and negative (mostly) repercussions from global warmingThe costs to mitigate global warming will be high better spent elsewhere?

*This slideshow present an overview of global warming issues, last updated 8/11/2006. A more detailed analysis of global warming issues is available at http://www.godandscience.org/apologetics/global_warming.html, including a printable PDF version. *In examining global warming, we will be looking at questions such as Is the world getting warmer? If so, are the actions of mankind to blame for earths temperature increases? What can or should be done about global warming? Are the potential resolutions to global warming worth the cost to implement them? *This is a big picture examination of the earths climate The Earth was formed around 4.6 billion years ago And was originally very hot However, the Suns energy output was only 70% of what it is presently Liquid water was present on the surface around 4.3 billion years ago, according to zircon dating However, much of earths early history was erased during late heavy bombardment, which took place around 3.9 billion years ago *

The first life forms appeared ~3.8 billion years ago Photosynthesis began 3.5-2.5 billion years ago, which produced oxygen and removed carbon dioxide and methane, which are greenhouse gases, from the atmosphere As a result, the Earth went through periods of cooling, commonly referred to as Snowball Earth and subsequent warming Earth began its current cycles of glacial and interglacial periods around 3 million years ago *The temperature of the earth is directly related to the energy input from the Sun. Some of the Suns energy is reflected by clouds. Other is reflected by ice. The remainder is absorbed by the earth. * If amount of solar energy absorbed by the earth is equal to the amount radiated back into space, the earth remains at a constant temperature. * However, if the amount of solar energy is greater than the amount radiated, then the earth heats up. * If the amount of solar energy is less than the amount radiated, then the earth cools down. *To a certain degree, the earth acts like a greenhouse. Energy from the Sun penetrates the glass of a greenhouse and warms the air and objects within the greenhouse. The same glass slows the heat from escaping, resulting in much higher temperatures within the greenhouse than outside it. *Likewise, the earths atmospheric gases affect the ability of the earth to radiate the Suns energy back into space. Nitrogen, Oxygen and Argon make up >99% of the earths atmospheric gases and are non-greenhouse gases. Water, Carbon Dioxide, and Methane make up