global warming
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Global Warming. Will Human-Induced Climate Change Destroy the World?. Introduction. Is the world getting warmer? If so, are the actions of mankind to blame for earth’s temperature increases? What can/should be done about these issues? - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
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Global WarmingGlobal WarmingWill Human-Induced Climate Change Destroy the World?
.
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IntroductionIntroduction
• Is the world getting warmer?
• If so, are the actions of mankind to blame for earth’s temperature increases?
• What can/should be done about these issues?
• Are the potential resolutions worth the cost to implement them?
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History of Earth’s ClimateHistory of Earth’s Climate
• Earth formed ~4.6 billion years ago• Originally very hot• Sun’s energy output only 70% of
present• Liquid water present ~4.3 billion years
ago (zircon dating)• Much of earth’s early history erased
during late heavy bombardment (~3.9 billion years ago)
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History of Earth’s ClimateHistory of Earth’s Climate
• Life appeared ~3.8 billion years ago• Photosynthesis began 3.5-2.5 billion
years ago Produced oxygen and removed carbon
dioxide and methane (greenhouse gases) Earth went through periods of cooling
(“Snowball Earth”) and warming
• Earth began cycles of glacial and interglacial periods ~3 million years ago
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Sun
Earth’s TemperatureEarth’s Temperature
Solar
Energy
Solar
Energy
Solar
Energy
Solar
Energy
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Sun
Earth’s TemperatureEarth’s Temperature
Solar
Energy
Solar
Energy
RadiativeCooling
RadiativeCooling
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Sun
Earth’s TemperatureEarth’s Temperature
Solar
Energy
Solar
Energy
RadiativeCooling
RadiativeCooling
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Sun
Earth’s TemperatureEarth’s Temperature
Solar
Energy
Solar
Energy
RadiativeCooling
RadiativeCooling
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Greenhouse EffectGreenhouse EffectSun
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Earth’s Atmospheric GasesEarth’s Atmospheric GasesNitrogen (N2)
Oxygen (O2)
Water (H2O)
Carbon Dioxide (CO2)
>99%
Methane (CH4)
<1%
Non-Greenhouse
Gases
GreenhouseGases
Argon (Ar)
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Sun Runaway Greenhouse EffectRunaway Greenhouse Effect
• 97% carbon dioxide• 3% nitrogen• Water & sulfuric
acid clouds• Temperature:
860°F
Venus
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Carbon DioxideCarbon Dioxide
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170
220
270
320
370
420
200000400000600000Time (YBP)
CO
2 (p
pm
)
Vostok Ice CoreDome Concordia
Carbon Dioxide LevelsCarbon Dioxide Levels
0
Muana Loa ReadingsCO2 Levels Since 1958
310330350370
10203040
CO
2 (
pp
m)
0
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Future Carbon Dioxide LevelsFuture Carbon Dioxide Levels
• Increasing CO2 emissions, especially in China and developing countries
• Likely to double within 150 years: Increased coal usage Increased natural gas usage Decreased petroleum usage (increased
cost and decreasing supply)
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Past TemperaturesPast Temperatures
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-0.6
-0.4
-0.2
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000Year
M
ean
Tem
per
atu
re (
°C)
Recorded Worldwide Temperatures
Recorded Worldwide Temperatures
FlatDecreasing
Flat
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2009 Temperature Changes Compared to 1951-1980
2009 Temperature Changes Compared to 1951-1980
-4.1 -4 -2 -1 -.5 -.2 .2 .5 1 2 4 4.1
2009 Temperature Changes Compared to 1951-1980
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Past Temperatures MeasurementPast Temperatures Measurement
• Proxy – a method that approximates a particular measurement (e.g., temperature) Tree rings Ice cores Pollen records Plant macrofossils Sr/Ca isotope data Oxygen isotopes from speleothem calcite
(stalactites and stalagmites)
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Temperature History of the EarthTemperature History of the Earth• Little ice age (1400-1840) – 1°C cooler • Medieval warm period (800-1300) – 1°C
warmer than today• Cool/warm cycles occur ~1,500 years• Affect mostly Northeastern U.S. and North
Atlantic• Mostly due to changes in thermohaline
circulation • Dramatic shutdown of thermohaline
circulation occurred 8,200 years ago as a large lake in Canada flooded the North Atlantic
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Main Ocean CurrentsMain Ocean Currents
Adapted from IPCC SYR Figure 4-2
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Temperature History of the EarthTemperature History of the Earth
• For the past 3 million years, the earth has been experiencing ~100,000 year long cycles of glaciation followed by ~10,000 year long interglacial periods
• These climate periods are largely the result of cycles in the earth’s orbit – precession, obliquity, and eccentricity
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Orbital Parameters: PrecessionOrbital Parameters: Precession
PerihelionApehelion
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Orbital Parameters: ObliquityOrbital Parameters: Obliquity22.5°24.5°
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Orbital Parameters: EccentricityOrbital Parameters: Eccentricity
PerihelionApehelionApehelion
Minimum: 0.005Minimum: 0.005
Maximum: 0.061Maximum: 0.061
Not to scale!Not to scale!To Scale!To Scale!
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Temperature History of the EarthTemperature History of the Earth
• For the past 3 million years, the earth has been experiencing ~100,000 year long cycles of glaciation followed by ~10,000 year long interglacial periods
• Last ice age began to thaw 15,000 years ago, but was interrupted by the “Younger Dryas” event 12,900 years ago
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Temperature History of the EarthTemperature History of the Earth
Middle Pliocene (3.15 to 2.85 million ya)
• Temperatures: 2°C higher than today. 20°C higher at high latitudes 1°C higher at the Equator
• Sea levels were 100 ft higher
• Causes CO2 levels that were 100 ppm higher
Increased thermohaline circulation
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Temperature History of the EarthTemperature History of the Earth
Eocene (41 million years ago)
• Opening of the Drake Passage (between South America and Antarctica).
• Increased ocean current exchange Strong global cooling First permanent glaciation of Antarctica
~34 million years ago
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Temperature History of the EarthTemperature History of the Earth
Paleocene Thermal Maximum (55 mya)
• Sea surface temperatures rose 5-8°C
• Causes Increased volcanism Rapid release of methane from the oceans
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Temperature History of the EarthTemperature History of the Earth
Mid-Cretaceous (120-90 mya)
• Much warmer
• Breadfruit trees grew in Greenland
• Causes Different ocean currents (continental
arrangement) higher CO2 levels (at least 2 to 4 times
higher than today, up to 1200 ppm)
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Recent Temperature Changes
Recent Temperature Changes
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What Influences Tree Rings?What Influences Tree Rings?
• Temperature
• Rainfall
• Carbon dioxide concentration
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Consequences of Global Warming
Consequences of Global Warming
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2009 Temperature Changes Compared to 1951-1980
2009 Temperature Changes Compared to 1951-1980
-4.1 -4 -2 -1 -.5 -.2 .2 .5 1 2 4 4.1
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Ice Sheets Melting?Ice Sheets Melting?
• GRACE (gravity measured by satellite) found melting of Antarctica equivalent to sea level rise of 0.4 mm/year (2 in/century)
• Zwally, 2005 (satellite radar altimetry) confirmed Antarctica melting Greenland ice melting on
exterior, accumulating inland(higher precipitation)
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Melting Glaciers – Mt. KilimanjaroMelting Glaciers – Mt. Kilimanjaro
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1000
800
600
400
200
0
-200
-400
-6002003 2004 2005
Ice
Mas
s (k
m3 )
Year
Changes in Antarctica Ice Mass Changes in Antarctica Ice Mass
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Rise in Sea Levels?Rise in Sea Levels?
• Present rate is 1.8 ± 0.3 mm/yr (7.4 in/century)
• Accelerating at a rate of 0.013 ± 0.006 mm/yr2
• If acceleration continues, could result in 12 in/century sea level rise
• Scenarios claiming 1 meter or more rise are unrealistic
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Time (KYBP)Time (KYBP)
Sea
Lev
el (
m)
Sea
Lev
el (
m)
2020
00
-20-20
-40-40
-60-60
-80-80
-100-100
-120-120
Sea Levels for 450,000 YearsSea Levels for 450,000 Years
450450 400400 350350 300300 250250 200200 150150 100100 5050 002525
2626
2727
2828
2929
3030
3131
SS
T (
°C)
Tro
pic
al P
acif
icS
ST
(°C
) T
rop
ical
Pac
ific
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Increase in Hurricanes?Increase in Hurricanes?
• Two studies showed the total number of hurricanes has not changed
• However, the intensity of hurricanes has increased (more category 4 and 5 hurricanes and cyclones)
• Probably due to higher sea surface temperatures (more energy)
• Difficult to know if this trend will continue
• Two studies showed the total number of hurricanes has not changed
• However, the intensity of hurricanes has increased (more category 4 and 5 hurricanes and cyclones)
• Probably due to higher sea surface temperatures (more energy)
• Difficult to know if this trend will continue
18601860 18801880 19001900 19201920 19401940 19601960 19801980 20002000 2020202000
55
1010
1515
Data UnreliableData Unreliable
Scaled August-OctoberSea-Surface TemperatureAdjusted Atlantic StormPower Dissipation Index
Scaled August-OctoberSea-Surface TemperatureAdjusted Atlantic StormPower Dissipation Index
SS
T/S
PD
I (m
eter
s3 /se
c2 )S
ST
/SP
DI (
met
ers3 /
sec2 )
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How Much Temperature Increase?
How Much Temperature Increase?
• Some models propose up to 9°C increase this century
• Two studies put the minimum at 1.5°C and maximum at 4.5°C or 6.2°C
• Another study puts the minimum at 2.5°C
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Wildlife EffectsWildlife Effects
• Polar Bears Require pack ice to live Might eventually go extinct in the wild
• Sea turtles Breed on the same islands as
their birth Could go extinct on some islands
as beaches are flooded
• Other species may go extinct as rainfall patterns change throughout the world
• Polar Bears Require pack ice to live Might eventually go extinct in the wild
• Sea turtles Breed on the same islands as
their birth Could go extinct on some islands
as beaches are flooded
• Other species may go extinct as rainfall patterns change throughout the world
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Effect on HumansEffect on Humans
• Fewer deaths from cold, more from heat
• Decreased thermohaline circulation Cooler temperatures in North Atlantic
• CO2 fertilization effect
• Precipitation changes Droughts and famine (some areas) Expanded arable land in Canada, Soviet Union
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Potential Worldwide Precipitation Changes
Potential Worldwide Precipitation Changes
-50 -20 -10 -5 5 10 20 50
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Drought in AfricaDrought in Africa
Lake FaguibineLake Faguibine Lake ChadLake Chad
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Possible Solutions to Global Warming
Possible Solutions to Global Warming
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Mitigation of Global WarmingMitigation of Global Warming
• Conservation Reduce energy needs Recycling
• Alternate energy sources Nuclear Wind Geothermal Hydroelectric Solar Fusion?
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Storage of CO2 in Geological FormationsStorage of CO2 in Geological Formations
1. Depleted oil and gas reservoirs
2. CO2 in enhanced oil and gas recovery3. Deep saline formations – (a) offshore (b) onshore
4. CO2 in enhanced coal bed methane recovery
1. Depleted oil and gas reservoirs
2. CO2 in enhanced oil and gas recovery3. Deep saline formations – (a) offshore (b) onshore
4. CO2 in enhanced coal bed methane recovery
Adapted from IPCC SRCCS Figure TS-7
3a3a22
3b3b 11 44
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Global Warming MythsGlobal Warming Myths
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-4.1 -4 -2 -1 -.5 -.2 .2 .5 1 2 4 4.1
Global Warming is Due to Urban Heat Islands
Global Warming is Due to Urban Heat Islands
2009 Temperature Changes Compared to 1951-1980
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Mt. Kilimanjaro’ Glaciers are Melting Because of Global Warming
Mt. Kilimanjaro’ Glaciers are Melting Because of Global Warming
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Global Warming Primarily Impacts the Northern Hemisphere
Global Warming Primarily Impacts the Northern Hemisphere
-0.6
-0.4
-0.2
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
1920 1960 2000Year
Tem
pera
ture
Cha
nge
(°C
)
Northern vs. Southern Latitude
Northern HemisphereSouthern Hemisphere
1920 1960 2000Year
Land vs. Ocean
LandOcean
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Sea Levels Will Rise 5-6 ft?Sea Levels Will Rise 5-6 ft?
• Present rate is 1.8 ± 0.3 mm/yr (7.4 in/century)
• Accelerating at a rate of 0.013 ± 0.006 mm/yr2
• If acceleration continues, could result in 12 in/century sea level rise
• Scenarios claiming 1 meter or more rise are unrealistic
• Recently, the California State Lands Commission said that sea levels could rise 55 inches this century, inundating ports
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How Much Temperature Increase?
How Much Temperature Increase?
• Global warming alarmists propose up to 9°C increase this century
• Two studies put the minimum at 1.5°C and maximum at 4.5°C or 6.2°C
• Another study puts the minimum at 2.5°C
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Temperature ExtrapolationTemperature ExtrapolationT
(°C
)1.5
1.0
0.5
0
-0.4
Date1980 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100
2.5
2.0
1960
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ConclusionsConclusions
• Global warming is happening
• Most warming is probably the result of human activities
• There will be positive and negative (mostly) repercussions from global warming
• The costs to mitigate global warming will be high – better spent elsewhere?