global warming
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Global Warming. Is Human-Induced Climate Change Going To Destroy The World? Ok… that’s a bit dramatic. But, good questions are: What is the evidence for recent climate change? Do we need to worry about it – what are the consequences? What can we do about it?. - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
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Global WarmingGlobal WarmingIs Human-Induced Climate Change
Going To Destroy The World?
Ok… that’s a bit dramatic. But, good questions are:
1) What is the evidence for recent climate change?2) Do we need to worry about it – what are the consequences?3) What can we do about it?
Data and diagrams from Richard Deem, Michael Mann, Lee Kump and the Intergovermental Panel on Climate Change
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History of Earth’s Atmosphere/Climate
History of Earth’s Atmosphere/Climate
• Earth formed ~4.6 billion years ago• Originally very hot, probably molten, early
impact forming the moon• Any early atmosphere removed by initiation
of sun’s fusion reactions and solar wind• Granitic crust and liquid water was present
by ~4.3 billion years ago (zircon dating)• However, much of Earth’s early history was
erased during late heavy bombardment (~3.9 billion years ago)
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• First life appeared by ~3.8 Ga
• Photosynthesis began 3.5-2.5 Ga, clear evidence for significant oxygen in the atmosphere by 2.0 Ga• Photosynthesis introduced oxygen and
removed carbon dioxide and methane (greenhouse gases)
• Earth began current cycles of glacial and interglacial periods ~3 Ma
History of Earth’s Atmosphere/Climate
History of Earth’s Atmosphere/Climate
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Sun
Earth’s TemperatureEarth’s Temperature
Solar EnergySolar Energy
Solar EnergySolar Energy
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Sun
Earth’s TemperatureEarth’s Temperature
Solar
Energy
Solar
Energy
RadiativeCooling
RadiativeCooling
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Sun
Earth’s TemperatureEarth’s Temperature
Solar
Energy
Solar
Energy
RadiativeCooling
RadiativeCooling
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Sun
Earth’s TemperatureEarth’s Temperature
Solar
Energy
Solar
Energy
RadiativeCooling
RadiativeCooling
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Greenhouse EffectGreenhouse EffectSun
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Earth’s Atmospheric GasesEarth’s Atmospheric Gases
Nitrogen (N2)
Oxygen (O2)
Water (H2O)
Carbon Dioxide (CO2)
99%
Methane (CH4)
1%
Non-Greenhouse
Gases
GreenhouseGases
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Sun Runaway Greenhouse EffectRunaway Greenhouse Effect
• 97% CO2
• 3% N2
• Water & sulfuric acid clouds
• Temperature:860°F (hotter than Mercury which is nearest to the sun)
Venus
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170
220
270
320
370
420
200000400000600000Time (YBP)
CO
2 (p
pm
)
Vostok Ice CoreDome Concordia
Carbon Dioxide LevelsCarbon Dioxide Levels
0
Muana Loa ReadingsCO2 Levels Since 1958
310330350370
10203040
CO
2 (
pp
m)
0
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Worldwide Carbon EmissionsWorldwide Carbon EmissionsC
arb
on
(10
9 m
etri
c to
ns)
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
1750 1800 1850 1900 1950 2000Year
Liquid fuelLiquid fuelTotalTotal
Gas fuelGas fuelSolid fuelSolid fuel
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Annual Carbon EmissionsAnnual Carbon Emissions
Annual carbon emissionsAtmospheric CO2
Atmospheric CO2 average
1955 1965 1975 1985 1995 20050
4
6
8
2
Year
Car
bo
n (
109
met
ric
ton
s)
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Future Atmospheric CO2 Levels?Future Atmospheric CO2 Levels?
• Increasing CO2 emissions, especially in China and developing countries
• Likely to double within 150 years:• Increased coal usage• Increased natural gas usage• Decreased petroleum usage (increased
cost and decreasing supply)
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Kyoto ProtocolKyoto Protocol
• Adopted in 1997
• Cut CO2 emissions by 5% from 1990 levels for 2008-2012
• Really is symbolic only, since such levels of reduction will likely not significantly impact global warming
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-0.6
-0.4
-0.2
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000Year
M
ean
Tem
per
atu
re (
°C)
Recorded Worldwide Temperatures
Recorded Worldwide Temperatures
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-3 -2.5 -1.5 -1 -.5 -.1 .1 .5 1 1.5 2.5 3.4
2007 Temperature Changes Compared to 1951-1980
2007 Temperature Changes Compared to 1951-1980
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Past Temperatures MeasurementPast Temperatures Measurement
• Proxy – a method that approximates a particular measurement (e.g., temperature)• Ice cores• Pollen records• Plant macrofossils• Sr/Ca isotope data• Oxygen isotopes from speleothem calcite
(stalactites and stalagmites)
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Temperature History of the EarthTemperature History of the Earth
• Little ice age (1400-1840) – 1°C cooler • Medieval warm period (800-1300) – 1°C
warmer than today• Cool/warm cycles occur over ~1,500 years• Mostly due to changes in thermohaline
circulation system of the ocean
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Temperature History of the EarthTemperature History of the Earth
• For the past 3 Ma, the Earth has been experiencing ~100 ka cycles of glaciation followed by ~10 ka interglacial periods
• These climate periods are largely the result of cycles in the earth’s orbit – precession, obliquity, and eccentricity
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Orbital Parameters & Earth’s ClimateOrbital Parameters & Earth’s Climate
Age (ka)1000900 800 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0
Eccentricity(100 ka)
Temperature
Obliquity(41 ka)
Precession(22 ka)
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Temperature History of the EarthTemperature History of the Earth
• For the past 3 Ma the earth has been experiencing ~100 ka cycles of glaciation followed by ~10 ka interglacial periods
• Last ice age began ending 15,000 years ago, but was interrupted by the “Younger Dryas” event 12,900 years ago
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“Hockey Stick” Controversey“Hockey Stick” Controversey
1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 2000-0.8
Year
-0.6
-0.4
-0.2
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
Tem
per
atu
re C
han
ge
(°C
)
Direct temperature measurementsMann et al. 1999
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170170
220220
270270
320320
370370
00200000200000400000400000600000600000Time (YBP)Time (YBP)
CO
2 (p
pm
) A
nta
rcti
ca
CO
2 (p
pm
) A
nta
rcti
ca
2525262627272828292930303131
SS
T (
°C)
Tro
pic
al P
acif
icS
ST
(°C
) T
rop
ical
Pac
ific
CO2 Concentration Vs. TemperatureCO2 Concentration Vs. Temperature
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Consequences of Global Warming: Primarily Impacts the Northern Hemisphere and Land Masses
Consequences of Global Warming: Primarily Impacts the Northern Hemisphere and Land Masses
-0.6
-0.4
-0.2
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
1920 1960 2000Year
Tem
pera
ture
Cha
nge
(°C
)
1920 1960 2000Year
Northern vs. Southern Latitude Land vs. Ocean
Northern HemisphereSouthern Hemisphere
LandOcean
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2007 Temperature Changes Compared to 1951-1980
2007 Temperature Changes Compared to 1951-1980
-3 -2.5 -1.5 -1 -.5 -.1 .1 .5 1 1.5 2.5 3.4
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Consqeuences of Global Warming: Ice Sheets Melting?
Consqeuences of Global Warming: Ice Sheets Melting?
• GRACE (gravity measured by satellite) found melting in Antarctica equivalent to sea level rise of 0.4 mm/year (2 in/century)
• Zwally, 2005 (satellite radar altimetry) • confirmed Antarctica melting• Greenland ice melting on
exterior, accumulating inland(higher precipitation)
• And - Glaciers are retreating
all over the world.
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Consqeuences of Global Warming: Rise in Sea Levels?
Consqeuences of Global Warming: Rise in Sea Levels?
• Present rate is 1.8 ± 0.3 mm/yr (7.4 in/century)
• Accelerating at a rate of 0.013 ± 0.006 mm/yr2
• If acceleration continues, could result in 12 in/century sea level rise
• Scenarios claiming 1 meter or more rise are probably unrealistic
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Consqeuences of Global Warming: How Much Temperature Increase?Consqeuences of Global Warming: How Much Temperature Increase?
• Some models propose up to 9°C increase this century
• Two studies put the minimum at 1.5°C and maximum at 4.5°C or 6.2°C
• Another study puts the minimum at 2.5°C
• Summary – most studies suggest ~4°C over the next century
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Potential Worldwide Precipitation Changes
Potential Worldwide Precipitation Changes
-50 -20 -10 -5 5 10 20 50
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Mitigation of Global Warming?Mitigation of Global Warming?
• Conservation• Reduce energy needs• Recycling
• Alternate energy sources• Nuclear• Wind• Geothermal• Hydroelectric• Solar• Fusion?
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ConclusionsConclusions• Global warming is happening• Most warming is probably the result of
human activities – but this is still under debate
• There will be positive and negative (mostly) repercussions from global warming
• The costs to mitigate global warming will be high – are they worthwhile?
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• Extra slides 2010 beyond this point
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Winter Temperatures
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000
Year
Summer Temperatures
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000
Year
Annual Temperatures
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000
Year
Tem
per
atu
re (
°C)
Historic Los Angeles Temperatures
Historic Los Angeles Temperatures
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Main Ocean CurrentsMain Ocean Currents
Adapted from IPCC SYR Figure 4-2
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YoungerDryas
YoungerDryas
Younger Dryas Event – Greenland DataYounger Dryas Event – Greenland Data
-55-55
-50-50
-45-45
-40-40
-35-35
-30-30
-25-25
05101520Age (ka)
Tem
per
atu
re (
°C)
Tem
per
atu
re (
°C)
0.050.05
0.100.10
0.150.15
0.200.20
0.250.25
0.300.30
0.350.35
Sn
ow
Acc
um
ula
tio
n (
m/y
r)S
no
w A
ccu
mu
lati
on
(m
/yr)
Little Ice AgeLittle Ice AgeIce Age
Medieval WarmMedieval Warm
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Mann et al. 1999Esper et al. 2002
800 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800-2
-1
0
1
2
Tem
per
atu
re C
han
ge
(°C
)
2000Year
Is the Hockey Stick Correct?Is the Hockey Stick Correct?
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Is the Hockey Stick Correct?Is the Hockey Stick Correct?
-1.2
-1.0
-0.8
-0.6
-0.4
-0.2
0.0
0.2
0.4
0 400 800 1200 1600 2000Year
Tem
per
atu
re C
han
ge
(°C
)
Mann et al. 1999Esper et al. 2002Moberg et al. 2005Mann et al. 2008
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U.S. National Academy of Sciences: June 2006
U.S. National Academy of Sciences: June 2006
1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 2000-0.8
Year
-0.6
-0.4
-0.2
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
Tem
per
atu
re C
han
ge
(°C
)
“high level of confidence”“2:1 chance of being right”
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Changing Sea LevelsChanging Sea Levels
1700 1750 1800 1850 1900 1950 2000-20
-10
0
10
20
Rel
ativ
e S
ea L
evel
(cm
)
Adapted from IPCC SYR Figure 2-5
Amsterdam, NetherlandsBrest, FranceSwinoujscie, Poland
Glo
bal T
emp
erature C
han
ge
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Time (Ka)Time (Ka)
Sea
Lev
el (
m)
Sea
Lev
el (
m)
2020
00
-20-20
-40-40
-60-60
-80-80
-100-100
-120-120
Sea Levels for 450,000 YearsSea Levels for 450,000 Years
450450 400400 350350 300300 250250 200200 150150 100100 5050 002525
2626
2727
2828
2929
3030
3131
SS
T (
°C)
Tro
pic
al P
acif
icS
ST
(°C
) T
rop
ical
Pac
ific