global warming
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Global Warming. So What? . December 2013. WATER. FOOD . Rainfall becomes more variable. Planet-wide, we get a little more rain. Around the Arctic gets lots more, mid-latitudes (20-40°) less. . Yet in any one place, we get more hours and days without rain . In other words, - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
Global Warming
So What? .
December 2013 .
WATER
FOOD .
Rainfall becomes more variable.
Planet-wide, we get a little more rain.Around the Arctic gets lots more, mid-latitudes (20-40°)
less. .Yet in any one place, we get
more hours and days without rain.
In other words,
we get more downpours and floods,
yet also longer, drier, hotter droughts.
Droughts Worsen .
Evaporation increases.
Droughts Worsen.
Greenhouse Effect
Greenhouse gases in the
air (GHGs) intercept some
outgoing radiation and
re-radiate it back down.
This warms Earth more.
More GHGs = warmer still.
Dark Earth absorbs sunlight.Earth warms up andradiates heat.
Light surfaces reflect sunlight. Those surfaces don’t warm Earth much.
Changing a light surface (ice) to a dark one (water) warms Earth.
Changing a dark surface (forest) to a lighter one (desert) cools Earth.
Greenhouse Gases
• GHGs warm Earth by 32°C (58°F).Earth would average 0°F without them.
• Water vapor (H2O) does 2/3 of this warming.As Earth warms up, evaporation increases H2O in the air.
This amplifies warming from other GHGs a lot.
• Carbon dioxide (CO2) does 55% of the rest.Almost all US CO2 comes from burning coal, oil & natural gas.
Per unit of energy, coal emits 4 units of CO2, oil 3, natural gas 2.
• Methane (CH4, natural gas) does 16%. CH4 comes from wetlands, cows, leaky coal mines & gas wells, rice, landfills.
• CFCs, ozone, nitrous oxide, and other gases do the rest.
CO2 Levels in the Air , CO2 Levels in Air
CO2 Levels in Earth's Atmosphere
280
300
320
340
360
380
400
1750 1790 1830 1870 1910 1950 1990
parts per million (ppm)300 ppm
(maximum between ice ages)
AnnualAverages
Up41%
•
- into oceans, trees, soils, rocks.
highest level in 15 million yearsEarth then was 5-11°F warmer.
We appear already committed to far bigger effects than we’ve seen so far.
So far, half the CO2 we’ve emitted has stayed in the air.The rest has gone into carbon sinks.
Most of the difference between 280 and 395 ppm of CO2 remains to be seen.
Seas then were 80-130 feet higher.(34%Since 1880)
CO2 level as high 3.5 million years agoEarth then was 3-6°F warmer. Seas then were 65-120 feet higher.
This means ice then was gone from almost all of Greenland,most of West Antarctica, and some of East Antarctica.
Sun vs Temp .
- NASA- World Radiation Center
Watts / m2 ∆ °C
Solar Irradiance at Earth Orbit, Annual Average
In 2007, solar output was the lowest yet recorded (in 28 years), but
Global Air Temperature, Land Surface, 3-Year Moving Average
Earth’s air temperatures (land surface) were the highest yet recorded.
Solar Output vs Earth's
1365.1
1365.4
1365.7
1366.0
1366.3
1366.6
1979 1983 1987 1991 1995 1999 2003 2007 2011
Total Solar Irradiance
0.10
0.25
0.40
0.55
0.70
0.85
Temperature∆°C from 1951-80 Baseline
Solar IrradianceTemperature
Sulfates & Cooling
• Dark sulfates in the air block sunlight.
• Sulfates make haze
More sulfates = cloudier = cooler.
• Most sulfates come from burning coal,
SO2 goes up the smokestacks.
• GHGs stay in the air many years,
• GHG levels keep rising.
• Sulfates now offset 45% of GHG warming.
That cools Earth.
& become cloud condensation nuclei.
some from volcanoes.
It changes to SO4 (sulfate) up in the air.
sulfates usually for days.
Sulfate levels don’t.
Maybe 1.0°C.
Sulfate Cooling Un-Smooths GHG WarmingGlobal Air Temperatures
at Land Surface
-.60
-.45
-.30
-.15
.00
.15
.30
.45
.60
.75
.90
1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000
Temperature Differencefrom 1951-80 Baseline -
∆°C
5-year mean
∆°C
NASA GISS - Earth’s7,000 weather stations
- adjusted for urbanheat island effects
Krakatoa erupts
cool
Sulfate Levels in Greenland Icemilligrams of Sulfate per Ton of Ice
(Intergovernmental Panelon Climate Change, 2002)
401880 2000
61 89 77 116 162 118
Santa Maria,Soufriere,
Pelee erupt
cool
Katmai, Colima erupt
Sulfatesup 52%(61/40).
Cooling limitsGHG
warming.
cool
Sulfatesup 46%.
cool
warmingunmasked
GreatDepression
Sulfatesfall 13%.
less SO2 up the stacks
Cooling offsets
GHGwarming.
Agung erupts
cool
major coolingSulfates up 110%.
US SO2cuts start.warmingunmasked
Cooling offsets
GHGwarming.
El Chichón
erupts
Pinatuboerupts
cool
cool
warming unmasked
Sulfa
tes
fall
27%
.
sulfates still3x 1880 levels
•
Brown . cloud . grows over ..China,India. .
cool
Coal-Fired Power Plants
Earth Is Heating Up.Earth Is Heating Up.• Earth now absorbs 0.25% more energy than it emits –
a 380 million MW heat gain
380 million MW
This absorption has been accelerating, from near zero in 1960.
• Air at the land surface is 1.1°C warmer than a century ago.
Half that warming happened in the last 33 years.
Earth must warm another 0.6°C .just so it emits enough heat to balance absorption.
• Air at the sea surface is 0.8°C warmer than a century ago.
84-90% of the energy Earth absorbs heats the oceans. .
• The oceans have gained ~ 10 x more heat in 40 years than ALL the energy humans have EVER used.
One MW can power several hundred US homes.~ means “approximately, roughly, is about equal to” 1°C = 1.8°F.
= 25 x human energy use.
(±75 million MW)
= 80 x global electric supply
, so far,
Warming Table & Graph .
By 2100, with 5.8°F warming per century, Saginaw’s summer would be almost as hot as Bristol’s now, while Bristol’s would be almost as hot as Tupelo’s today.
By 2100, with 12.1°F warming per century, Saginaw’s summer would be almost as hot as Tupelo’s now. Baltimore’s would be as hot as Waco’s now,
Using this data, 2012’s summer heat becomes a new US normal (once / 2 years) in 22 years (2034).
A US summer as hot as 2012 is already expected once every 35 years Warming was fastest in Roswell (+15.8°F / century), Bristol & Butte.
2012 was cooler than normal (1978-2012) in Astoria, Bartow, Houma & Oakland; and cooler than the new normal also in Boston, Bristol, Hampton, & Macon; but record hot in Aspen, Butte, Duluth & Norfolk NE
, & in 2011 in Enid, Macon, Roswell, Waco & Yuma.
& as hot as 2011 every 32.
Bartow & Houma cooled.
Mean Daily Summer Highs, Average of 26
81.9
82.4
82.9
83.4
83.9
84.4
84.9
85.4
1979 1984 1989 1994 1999 2004 2009
3-YearMoving Average
°F •
+5.8°F / century trend
+12.1°F /
century
Moline’s almost.
Tipping Points• Report to US & British Legislators - January 2006
What would make climate change accelerate,so natural forces defeat our efforts to slow it?
1 Disappearance of sea ice means more heat is absorbed by the water
below.
2 Carbon sinks fade & fail in oceans & forests.Some become carbon sources.
3 Methane release from permafrostrevs up warming in a vicious circle.
The Way It Is .
“We are already experiencing
dangerous human interference in the climate system.
… I sometimes say that the situation we are in is like
driving a car with bad brakes toward a cliff in the fog.”
President Obama’s Science Adviser .
John Holdren, April 8, 2009 .
Water
Hurricanes convert ocean heat to powerful winds & heavy rains.
Intense hurricanes are becoming more common.
Higher hurricane energy closely tracks sea surface warming.
With more carbon, oceans have grown more acidic.So, forming shells is more difficult. They dissolve easier.
Warmer water holds less dissolved oxygen.Fish & mollusks suffer.
Oceans warmed 0.15°C over 1997-2004,so plankton absorbed 7% less CO2.
Warming was far strongest in the North Atlantic.CO2 uptake there fell by half.
Ocean phytoplankton levels may be down 40% since the 1950s.Phytoplankton supply half of Earth’s oxygen.
More Heat - So?
Reservoirs in the Sky
Most mountain glaciers dwindle ever faster:in the Alps, Andes, Rockies, east & central Himalayas.
When Himalayan glaciers vanish, so couldthe Ganges River (& others) in the dry season.
When Andes glaciers vanish, so doesmost of the water supply for Lima and La Paz.
Mountain snows melt earlier.CA’s San Joaquin River (Central Valley, US “salad bowl”)
could dry up by July in most years.
The Colorado River’s recent 10-year drought wasthe worst since white men came.
Earth’s Thermostat .
Minimum ice area fell 37% in 34 years,
Arctic Ocean ice could vanish by fall in 4 years
Greenland’s net ice-melt rate rose 5x over the past 15 years.Its yearly net melt-water already 1/2 of US water use.
The situation is similar in Antarctica..
So, sea level will likely rise 1-7 feet by 2100 .
Thawing Arctic permafrost has 5 x MORE carbon than ALL our fossil fuels emitted. Already, Arctic permafrost emits ~ as much carbon as all US vehicles.
Thawing permafrost can add ~100 ppm of CO2 to the air by 2100, 280 more by 2300.
Seabed methane hydrates and stores under Antarctic ice hold much more carbon.
& be gone all summer in 10.
& far more afterward.
The ice got thinner too.WipneusU of Bremen
while volume fell 72%, 53% in the last 10.
Arctic Ocean ice is shrinking fast.Minimum Arctic Sea Ice
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
1978 1983 1988 1993 1998 2003 2008 2013
Million
Sq Km
Minimum Arctic Sea Ice VOLUME
0
3
6
9
12
15
18
1978 1983 1988 1993 1998 2003 2008 2013
Thousand
Cu Km
PIOMAS
Hot & DryFrom 1979 to 2005, the tropics spread. .
Sub-tropic arid belts grew ~140 miles toward the poles, .a century ahead of schedule. .
That means our jet stream moves north more often.In turn, the US gets hot weather more often.
2011-12 was America’s hottest on record..
Over September 2011 - August 2012, relative to local norms,
33 states were drier than the wettest state (WA) was wet.In 2012, 44 of 48 states were drier than normal.
Severe drought covered a record 35-46% of the US .
Drought reduced the corn crop by a quarter. .The soybean crop was also hit hard.
The Mississippi River neared a record low. Lake Michigan hit one.
By 2003, forest fires burned 6 x as much area / year as before 1986.Pine bark beetles ravage Rocky Mtn forests. .
What Else?
, for 39 weeks.
Record prices followed.
US fires to double by 2050.
Notable Recent Droughts
When I was young, the leading wheat producers were theUS Great Plains, Russia’s steppes, Canada, Australia, and Argentina’s Pampas. .
When Where How Bad2003 France, W Europe record heat, 20-70 thousand die
2003-10 Australia worst in millennia
2005 Amazon Basin once a century
2007 Atlanta, SE US once a century
2007-9 California emergency, record low rain in LA
2008-9 Argentine Pampas worst in half century
2008-11 North China ~worst in 2 centuries
2009 India monsoon season driest since 1972
2010 Amazon Basin worse than once a century
2010 Russia record heat & forest fires
2011 Texas, Oklahoma record heat & drought
2012 US: SE, SW, MW most widespread in 78 years
Is That All?No ..
Over 1994-2007, deserts grew from 18 to 27% of China’s area.
With more evaporation & irrigation,many water tables fall ..
Since 1985, half the lakes in Qinghai province (China) vanished. 92% in Hebei (around Beijing),
Irrigation wells chase water ever deeper.Water prices rise.
Inland seas and lakes dry up & vanish:the Aral Sea, Sea of Galilee, Lake Chad (Darfur), Lake Eyre.
More rivers fail to reach the sea:the Yellow, Colorado, Indus, Darling Rivers so far.
Water
3-20 feet / year.
as water tables dropped below lake beds.
Droughts Are Spreading Already.
Very Dry Areas - % of Global Land Area, 60°S - 75°N
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
% with
Severe
or
Extreme
Drought
-
Palmer
Drought
Severity
Index <
-3.0
.
precipitation effectwarming effectprecipitation + warming
Earth’s area in severe drought has tripled since 1979.
Area where rain is scarceincreased by quite a bit:3-6 million square miles.
Evaporatio
n incre
ased,
by a lo
t since
1987.
from Fig. 9 in Aiguo Dai, Kevin E. Trenberth, Taotao Qian [NCAR], "A Global Dataset of Palmer Drought Severity Index for 1870-2002: Relationship with Soil Moisture and Effects of Surface Warming,”
Journal of Hydrometeorology, December 2004, 1117-1130
10 m
illion
mor
e
squa
re m
iles
Evaporation at work
Compare 30% actual severe drought area in 2002 (11% of the time during 1951-80) to 27% projected for 2000-2004 in previous slide.
Over 23 years, the area with severe drought grew by the size of North America.
Compare 2002to 1979.
com
bine
d
effe
ct
Droughts spread, as projected or faster.
11% of the area during 1951-80:once per 9 years
•
30% = 16 million square miles
Switch from what could happen to what has happened already.
SUMMARYSevere drought has arrived,
Severe drought now afflicts an area the size of Asia.So, farmers mine groundwater ever faster for irrigation.
From 1979 to 2002 (+0.5°C) .
1) The area where rain is scarceincreased by the size of the United States.
Add in more evaporation. .
2) The area with severe droughtgrew by the size of North America.
3) The area suffering severe drought tripled.
4) The similarly wet area shrank by the size of India.
as projected or faster.
Turning Wheat into Cactus .
In 2005-6, scientists calculated how climate would changefor 9 Northeast and 6 Great Lakes states in 2 scenarios:
#1 - a transition away from fossil fuels, or
#2 - continued heavy reliance on them (business as usual emissions).
By 2085,
averaged across 15 states, the climate change would be like
moving 330 miles to the SSW (coal & oil use dwindle), or
moving 650 miles to the SSW (heavy coal & oil use).
Consider central Kansas, heart of wheat country.
330 miles to the SSW lies the area from Amarillo to Oklahoma City.
650 miles to the SSW lies the area around Alpine & Ft. Stockton, TX.
2 people / square mile. Cactus grows there.Mesquite & sagebrush too.
No wheat
Extreme Drought Can Clobber Earth• In 1989, NASA climate models showed, as CO2 levels rise and
Earth warms up, droughts would spread and intensify.
• “Once-per-9-year” droughts would cover 27% of Earth by 2002.
• With business as usual emissions, by 2059
CO2 levels would double pre-industrial levels.
• As a result, Earth would warm 4.2°C [7.5°F] from 1880 levels.
Rain would increase 14%.
• Despite the added rain,increased evaporationwould bring extreme“once-a-century” drought to 45% of Earth, DRY WET
0 1 5 16 36 36 16 5 1 0
% Occurrence in Control Run
Fig. 1d in David Rind, R. Goldberg, James Hansen, Cynthia Rosenzweig, R. Ruedy, “Potential Evapotranspiration and the Likelihood of Future Droughts,” Journal of Geophysical Research, Vol. 95, No. D7, 6/20/1990, 9983-10004. .
•
& rising.
UN Chief on Climate Change .
Some scientists are saying publicly that if humanity
goes on with business as usual, climate change could
lead to the collapse of civilization, even in the lifetime of
today's children.
United Nations Secretary General Ban Ki-Moon
said “I think that is a correct assessment.” He added
carefully “If we take action today, it may not be too late.”
September 24, 2007
What Drives Drought?• The water-holding capacity of air rises
exponentially with temperature.
• Air 4°C warmer holds 33% more moistureat the same relative humidity. .
more moisture in the air does not equal more clouds.
To maintain soil moisture,
~10% more rain is required to offset each 1°C warming.
Warmth draws more water UP (evaporation), soless goes DOWN (into soils) or SIDEways (into streams).
More water is stored in the air, less in soils.
Not all the water that goes up comes back down.
Thus,
Droughts - Why Worry? .
Droughts - Why Worry?2059 - 2 x CO2 (Business as Usual Emissions) .
• More moisture in the air,
• Average US stream flows decline 30%,
• Tree biomass in the eastern US falls by up to 40%.
• More dry climate vegetation:
The vegetation changes mean
• Biological Net Primary Productivity falls 30-70%.
SWITCH from PROJECTIONS to ACTUALS. .
• Satellites show browning of the Earth began in 1994. .
but 15-27% less in the soil.
despite 14% more rain.
savannas, prairies, deserts
Fung 2005Zhao 2010
Rind et al., 1990
Crop Yields Fall.
Crop Yields Fall.
United States: 2059 Projections - doubled CO2 - Business as Usual– Great Lakes, Southeast, southern Great Plains
• Corn, Wheat, Soybeans2 Climate Models (Scenarios) .
• NASA GISS Results Goddard Institute for Space Studies
–Yields fall 30%, averaged across regions & crops.
• NOAA GFDL Results Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Lab
–Yields fall 50%, averaged across regions & crops.CO2 fertilization not included .
So things won’t be this bad, especially this soon. Temperature effects of doubled CO2 will keep growing - eventually to 4.2° or 4.5°C - but over many decades, even after 2100.
CO2 fertilization boosts yields 6-30% or more in experiments, where water and other nutrients are well supplied, and weeds and pests are controlled. That won’t happen as well in many fields. Groundwater and snowmelt for irrigation grow scarcer in many areas. Other factors (esp. nitrogen) can limit growth. CO2 fertilization has diminishing returns.
Rind et al., 1990
- 3 of the big 4 crops (rice is the 4th)
(based on 4.2°C warmer, 14% more rain)
(based on ~ 4.5°C warmer, 5% less rain)
Photosynthesis, Warming & CO2 .
Plants evaporate (transpire) water in order to
[like blood]
(1) get it up to leaves, where H2O & CO2 form carbohydrates,
(2) pull other soil nutrients up from the roots to the leaves, and
[like sweat]
(3) cool leaves, so photosynthesis continues & proteins aren’t
damaged.
When water is scarce,
fewer nutrients (nitrogen, phosphorus, etc.) get up to leaves.
So, with more CO2,
leaves make more carbohydrates, but fewer proteins.
Warming & Falling Yields .
For wheat, corn & rice, photosynthesis in leavesslows above 35°C (95°F) and stops above 40°C (104°F).
Warming (above 35° or 40°C) hurts warm, tropical areas harder & sooner.
Over 1992-2003, warming above the norm cut rice yields by 10+% / °C.
Over 1982-98, warming in 618+ US counties cut corn & soybean yields ~17% / °C.
With more CO2, 2°C warming cut yields 8-38% for irrigated wheat in India.
Warmer nights since 1979 cut rice yield growth 10%± in 6 Asian nations.
Warming since 1980 cut wheat yield growth 5.5%, corn 3.8%.
Heat Spikes Devastate Crop Yields
Heat Spikes Devastate Crop YieldsSchlenker & Roberts 2009 .
Based on 55 years of crop data from most US counties, and
holding current growing regions fixed,
average yields for corn and soybeans could
plunge 37-46% by 2100 with the slowest warming
and plummet 75-82% with quicker warming.
Why?
Corn and soybean yields rise with warming up to 29-30°C,
but fall more steeply with higher temperatures.
Heat spikes on individual days have BIG impacts.
More rain can lessen losses. Plants transpire more water to cool off.
Growing other crops, or growing crops farther north, can help too.
World Grain Production .
80% of human food comes from grains.
World grain production rose little from 1992 to 2006.
Production per capita fell from 343 kilograms in 1985 to 306 in 2006.
World Grain Production
0
400
800
1200
1600
2000
2400
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
Millon Tons
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
kg / capita Million Tons
per capita
UN Food & Agriculture OrganizationWorldwatch Institute 2006 •
World Grain Stocks .
• Any future food production increases will occur away from the tropics.In the tropics, food production will fall.
• Soil erosion continues. Water to irrigate crops will grow scarcer, as glaciers and snowpacks vanish, water tables fall, and rainfall becomes more variable.
• Satellites show that, since 1994, hot dry summers outweigh warm, wet springs.A world that was turning greener is now turning browner.
• Grain stocks (below) are at low levels.
World Grain Stocks
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
1960 1966 1972 1978 1984 1990 1996 2002 2008 2014
Days of Consumption
FAO: Crop Prospects and Food Situation
Food Price Index .
Poor people could not afford to buy enough food in 2007-8. . Malnutrition & starvation rose. Food riots toppled governments in 2011.
UN, Food & Agriculture Organization: World Food Situation / FAO News
With food stocks at low levels, food prices rose steeply in 2007-8 and 2010.
Ditto 2010-11.
World Food Price Index
100
120
140
160
180
200
220
240
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
2002-04 = 100
World Food Prices .
Over 2005-7, .world prices .rose 125% . for wheat, .100% for corn, . 27% for rice. + .soybeans 83% . in just 1 year. .
Look at 2008. .
Over 2006-7, .food prices rose .18% in China, .13% in Indonesia .
& Pakistan, .10+% in India, .
Russia & .Latin America. .
Over 2007-8, world food prices rose 20-150%. .
In the US, food prices rose too: whole wheat bread 12%, milk 29%, eggs 36%.Why?
Grain for ethanol, High oil prices
2007
Rice
Wheat
Corn
UN: Food & Agriculture Organization
•
more meat for China, droughts in Australia, Ukraine, Russia, devalued $.mean more $ for fertilizer & pesticides, & especially to fuel pumps & tractors.
20092008 2010
World Grain Prices
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
550
600
650
700
750
800
J A J O J A J O J A J O J A J O J A J O J A J O J A J
US $ / Tonne
2011 2012 2013
Deserts Are Already Spreading.50 Year Trend in Palmer Drought Severity Index, 1950-2002
The Sahara Desert is spreading south, into Darfur & the Sahel. .The Gobi Desert is spreading into northeast China. More sandstorms visit Beijing.
Retreating glaciers moisten the soil in Tibet. .
75
60
45
30
15
0
-15
-30
-45
-60Fig. 7 in Dai,
Trenberth & Qian,Journal of
Hydrometeorology,Dec. 2004
•
-6.0 -4.0 -2.0 0.0 +2.0 +4.0 +6.0
-180 -120 -60 0 60 120 180
More negative is drier. More positive is wetter.
See Spain, Italy, Greece.
The USA lucked out till 2007.
2° vs 4° Warming .
1.1°C warming is here.
Holding warming to 2°C, not 4°, prevents these losses:
3/4 of Gross World Product$42 Trillion ~ 3/4 of GWP
1/5 of the World’s Food .2/3 of Amazon Rainforest1/8 of the world’s oxygen supply
Gulf Stream +
West Antarctic Icecap .Florida & Louisiana, central CA, Long Island, Cape Cod
1/2 of all Species .
2°C warming is manageable. Details to follow: first 2°C, next 3°, then 4°, finally 5°C.
4°C threatens civilization itself.
2°C has become unavoidable.
- Norfolk area, much of
2°C Warming - 450 ppm CO2e*. .
(Waxman-Markey bill or Kerry-Boxer bill in Congress) .
Stern Review, British government, Oct. 2006 .
(a report by scores of scientists, headed by World Bank’s chief economist) . selected effects - unavoidable damages .
• Hurricane costs double.
• Major heat waves are common.
• Droughts intensify.
• Civil wars & border wars over water increase:
• Crop yields rise nowhere, fall in the tropics.
• Greenland icecap collapse becomes irreversible.
• The Ocean begins its invasion of Bangladesh.
Many more major floods
Forest fires worsen.
Deserts spread.
more Darfur’s.
* also includesCH4, O3, SO4, etc.
3°C Warming - 550 ppm CO2e (McCain-Lieberman bill, watered down)
additional damages – avoidable
• Droughts & hurricanes get much worse.
• Hydropower and irrigation decline.
• Crop yields fall substantially in many areas.
• More water wars & failed states.
• 2/3 of Amazon rainforest may turn to savanna, desert scrub.
• Tropical diseases (malaria, etc.) spread farther & faster.
• 15-50% of species face extinction.
Water is scarce.
Stern Review +
Terrorists multiply.
. 4°C Warming - 650 ppm CO2e..
(double pre-industrial levels)
(Bush proposal) further damages - avoidable
• Water shortages afflict almost all people.
• Crop yields fall in ALL regions, by 1/3 in many.
• Entire regions cease agriculture altogether.
• Water wars, refugee crises, & terrorism become intense.
• Methane release from permafrost accelerates.
• The Gulf Stream may stop, monsoons often fail.
• West Antarctic ice sheet collapse speeds up.
Stern Review
5°C Warming - 750 ppm CO2e (Business as Usual Emissions) .
Deserts GROW by 2 x the size of the US.
World food falls by 1/3 to 1/2.
Human population falls .
to match the reduced food supply.
Other species fare worse.
We may hit 5°C by 2100.
a lot,
my extrapolations
The Stakes .
The costs of failing to tackle the climate change
issue would be greater than the impact of both
World Wars and the Great Depression combined.
Once the damage from unchecked emissions
growth is done, no retrospective global agreement,
in some future period, can undo that choice.
British Prime Minister Gordon Brown
October 19, 2009
CO2 Emission Paths to Stabilization .
CO2e (CO2 equivalent) includes warming from CO2 & other GHGs, less the cooling effect of sulfates.
+3°C
+2°C
Holding eventual warming to 2°C may no longer be possible,
Stern Review
TotalWarming
CO2 Emission Paths to Stabilization
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100
Global Emissions -
.
Billion Tons CO
2e/yr
Business as Usual
550 ppm CO2e
450 ppm CO2e
450 ppm CO2e = 398 CO2 + 315 other GHGs - 263 sulfate cooling.
-67%-75%
•
-32%
We are already at 450 ppm CO2e (including 398 of CO2).
The paths assume NO emissions from permafrost or seabed methane hydrates.
unless we take lots of CO2 out of the air.
Costs―––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––-–––––----–––––––––––––––––
Costs of Inaction: including $120 billion ($400 / American) in the US for 2012 .
Already 0.5 million / year die worldwide, .
$74 Trillion .
This exceeds GWP. .
a HUGE hidden TAX: $50,000 / American
$85 / Ton of CO2―––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––------––––––––––––––––––––––
Costs of Action:
Spend 1% of GWP ($150 billion by US), each year, ± 2%.
Damages fall to $25 - $30 / Ton of CO2.
World Savings ~ $2.5 Trillion, net from each year’s spending.
Stern Review inflation-adjusted $, Business as Usual
(present value
$30-75 / year / American – CBO, EPA
now $695 Billion/Year (more than 1% of GWP),
+4.5 million from coal sulfates.
(almost 1% of US GNP).
Costs GROW over time.
DARA, Watkiss / Hope,
annualized: $1.5 Trillion / year
(2%/year discount rate): 2005-2200)
Take Carbon Out of the Air!1 Rebuild prairie grasslands:
Imitate buffalo herds, with short rotation cattle grazing.
Dung beetles move carbon underground.
Absorb ~ 2 Tons carbon / acre / year.
• Put CO2 into crushed rock.
Rocks have weathered slowly for eons, taking CO2 out of the air..
Spread around millions of 2-story towers with crushed rock.
3 Farm the oceans.
8 x the carbon in our food
More fertilizer (K, P, N) may be needed.
perennial grass roots add carbon to soil.
Speed up natural process 50,000 x.
Lots more rain soaks in.
Take 80 ppm CO2 from the air.
Feed iron to algae. They suck CO2 from the air.
Algae may not sink. just breaks even..
Other problems will arise..
Take More Carbon Out of the Air!4 Add silicates during hydrolysis at sea surface: grabs CO2 from air.5 Make biochar. Bury it in shallow pits.
6 Plant trees, maintain forest soils:
Below-ground carbon ~ above-ground (20-50°).
Trees need water, but soils will have less.
A Add Sulfates to the Stratosphere – to block sunlight. We’d need hundreds of flights every day to the stratosphere by big cargo planes.
The sulfates will fall out eventually,
Also, we’d need to beware of shifting rain from one region to another.
B Loft Mirrors into Space – to block sunlight. We’d need half a million square miles of mirrors now, twice the size of Texas.
Add that much in 30 years, and again in 50.
C Create more clouds, or whiten them more.
humus, roots, fungi, bacteria, leaves.
Drought, fires shrivel forests.
deforestation continues.But
Geo-Engineering Band-Aids: Smoke & Mirrors
so we will breathe them in.
World CO2 Emissionsfrom Fossil Fuels
32.6 Billion Tons in 2011
US DOE / EIA .
.
.
In late 2009, China pledged to cut its CO2 intensity 40-45% by 2020, India 20-25%. China wind power grew more than coal.
•* Misc. = Korea, Indonesia, Thailand, Taiwan, Malaysia, Vietnam, Bangladesh, etc.
Other10.2%
LatinAmeric
aEurope13.6%
Misc. Asia .7.3% India
5.3%
China27.0%
Africa3.5%
Japan3.6%
Oceania1.4%
Canada1.7%
UnitedStates16.9%
Russia5.5%
Mid-East .
& C Asia8.7%
In 2012,
In 2013-4, 7 China mega-cities start carbon cap & trade.
CO2 Emissions by Nation, Year .CO2 Emissions from Fossil Fuels
Ch
ina
Russia
Europe
US
USSR
Oth
er A
sia
Other
Mid
-Eas
t &
Centr
al A
sia
IndiaJapan
Misc. Asia
Misc. Asia = .Korea, Indonesia, Thailand, Bangladesh, Taiwan, Philippines, Malaysia, Vietnam, etc.In 1992, Ukraine etc. to Europe,
Kazakhstan, etc. to Central Asia.
M-E & CA = Turkey to Pakistan & Kazakhstan
(Billion Metric Tons)
Latin Americ
a
Africa
Canada
Oceania =
Australia, NZ, etc.
Major Emitters
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008 2012
Other Asia
.3
.6
.9
1.2
1.5
1.8
2.1
2.4
2.7
3.0
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
Other
.2
.4
.6
.8
1.0
1.2
1.4
1.6
1.8
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
America’s Low-Carbon Revolution Has Begun
US DOE / EIA
US DOE / EIA
US DOE / EIA
US DOE / EIA
Net Imports
US Electricity Production
2.1
2.4
2.7
3.0
3.3
3.6
3.9
4.2
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
Trillion kWh
Coal's % of US Electricity
30%
35%
40%
45%
50%
55%
60%
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
US Oil Use
1.4
2.1
2.8
3.5
4.2
4.9
5.6
6.3
7.0
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
Billion Barrels
US CO2
Emissions
4.2
4.5
4.8
5.1
5.4
5.7
6.0
6.3
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
Billion Metric Tons
Companies are set to cash in on green technologies.For example, .
• GE Wind Philips Electronics (CFL lighting)
• Evergreen Solar (PV cells) Archer Daniels Midland (ethanol & biodiesel)• Entergy (nuclear plants) Johnson Controls (energy management systems)• Bechtel (IGCC coal plants) Magna International (lightweight auto parts)• Wheelabrator (landfill gas) Southwestern Energy (natural gas)• Halma (detect water leaks) Veolia Environnement (desalinization plants).
PV = photovoltaic. IGCC = integrated gasified combined cycle, helps sequester CO2. CFL = compact fluorescent light.
Meanwhile, the insurance industry has begun to act.
• Re-insurers – Lloyd’s of London, Swiss Re, and Munich Re –look to cut their losses by urging governments to mitigate climate change.
• Direct insurers – like Allstate, State Farm, MetLife, Hartford –are cutting back coverage in vulnerable areas, such as Florida.
• Nebraska insurance commissioners require planning for drought risk. • Large investors (> $20 Trillion in managed assets) have pushed 100+ companies
to disclose their climate-related risks to shareholders.
The market values high-carbon emitting companies lower.Carbon disclosure raises stock prices.
ExxonMobil is #1 target.
US CO2 Emissions, by Use .
Concentrate on the BIG stuff: coal for electricity(with a carbon cap) & personal transportation.
US CO2 Emissions,by Use
Industry .18%
Coal for . Electricity
.26%.
Gas & Oil for . Electricity
8%
Cars & Other . Personal .
Transportation .
19%
Other Transportation
13% *
Commercial Buildings
6%
Home Heat .10%.
2012: USDOE - EIA(US Department of Energy -
Energy Information Administration)
* Trucks, airlines, railroads, buses, pipelines, ships
•
US Electricity, by Source & Yr .
Coal
Natural Gas
Nuclear
Hydro
Minor
WindOil
Waste
Wood
Geothermal
Other GasesCentralSolar
•••
Natural Gas and Wind replace Coal and Oil.
Electricity SourcesUS, 2013 - 9 mo.
Natural. Gas
27.74%
Coal39.03%
Nuclear .19.15%.
Waste.48%.
Geothermal.41%
Other Gases.27% .Central Solar
.21% .
Oil.66%
Wood.92% .
Wind4.03%
Hydro6.90%
Other1.55%
US Electricity, Major Sources
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
50%
55%
1989 1993 1997 2001 2005 2009 2013
US Electricity, Other Sources
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
9%
10%
1989 1993 1997 2001 2005 2009 2013
US Electricity, Minor Sources
0.0%
0.2%
0.4%
0.6%
0.8%
1.0%
1.2%
1989 1993 1997 2001 2005 2009 2013
The US Is Cutting CO2 Emissions.
Natural gas prices fell steeply from August 2011 to May 2012.Cheaper gas replaced coal a lot to make electricity.
EPA’s interstate transport rule for SOx and NOx will makecoal plants operate scrubbers more and use low-sulfur coal.This makes coal power costlier, so less coal will be used.
Financial markets expect CO2 to be priced.Most proposed coal plants have been cancelled.Since 2009, 13% of coal capacity has been scheduled to retire.
New cars & trucks must average 35.5 mpg by 2016and 54.5 mpg by 2025.*
Hundreds of big companies save money by saving energy. Incandescent light bulbs begin phasing out in 2012.
New standards require ever more efficient appliances.
* DOE’s mpg, not EPA’s.So, actual mpg will be less.
Solutions - Electricity• Price it right
• Coal:
• Natural Gas & Oil follow loads up & down all day, but oil is expensive. follow loads:
Keep methane (& chemicals to groundwater) leakage from fracking to very low levels.
• Wind - Resource is many x total use:
Growing 16-35%/year,
• Solar - Resource dwarfs total use.
Growing 30+%/yr.
• Nuclear - new plants in China, India, US Southeast.
• Water, Wood, Waste - Rivers will dwindle. More forest fires limit growth.
• Geothermal - big potential in US West, Ring of Fire, Italy.
• Renewable energy can easily provide 80-90% of US electricity by 2050.
To
low at night, high by day, highest on hot afternoons.
Scrub out the CO2 with oxyfuel or pre-/post-combustion process.
store energy in
US Plains, NC-MA & TX coasts, Great Lakes.
it’s now cheaper than coal in many places. 5.6% of US MW
Output peaks near when cooling needs peak.
PV costs 6-25 ¢/kWh, thermal (with flat mirrors) 10¢.
Use less.
retail, for everyone:
car batteries, water uphill, compressed air, flywheels, hydrogen.
NREL, 2012
Solutions - Personal Vehicles
US cars get 24 mpg. . Average 20.
GM and Chrysler went bankrupt.
Toyota started outselling Ford in the US & GM around the world.
Hybrid sales are soaring. .
New cars average 37-44 mpg in Europe, 45 in Japan.
To cut US vehicle CO2 by 50% in 20 years is not hard. .
GM already did it in Europe. .
Lighten up, downsize, don’t over-power engines. .
Use 5-speeds & CVTs, hybrid-electric, diesel. .
Use pickup trucks & vans only for work that requires them. .
Store wind on the road, with plug-in hybrids.
HOW?
Ditch SUVs.
Charge them up at night.
Pickups, vans & SUVs get 17.
Up to 56 mpg
Solutions - Other Transportation
• Fuels - Cut CO2 emissions further with low-carbon fuels?
Save ethanol & biodiesel for boats & long-haul trucks & buses.
Get ethanol from sugar cane
corn ethanol’s ratio may be less than 1:1.
For biofuels, GHGs from land use changes DWARF GHG savings.
- Hydrogen is extremely tricky to use.
• Trains, Planes, & Ships
Use high-speed magnetic levitated railroads (RRs) for passengers.
Shift medium-haul passengers from airplanes to maglev RRs.
Shift long distance freight from trucks to electric RRs.
Big cargo ships use 2 MW wind turbines, hydrogen, nuclear reactors.
BUT
Limit to ships, airplanes.
(energy out / in ratio = 8:1).
Solutions - Efficient Buildings +• At Home - Use ground source heat pumps.
Better lights - compact fluorescents (CFLs) & LEDs.
Energy Star appliances
Insulation - high R-value in walls & ceiling,
Low flow showerheads, microwave ovens, trees, awnings, clotheslines, solar roofs
• Commercial - Use micro cogeneration, ground source heat pumps.
Don’t over-light.
Use LCD Energy Star computers.
Use free cooling (open intakes to night air), green roofs, solar roofs.
Make ice at night. Melt it during the day
• Industrial - Energy $ impact the bottom line.
Efficiency is generally good already.
Case-specific process changes as energy prices rise.
Turn off un-used lights.
– air conditioners, refrigerators, front load clothes washers
honeycomb window shades, caulking
Use day-lighting, occupancy sensors, reflectors.
Ventilate more with Variable Speed Drives.
Facility energy managers do their jobs.
Use more cogeneration.
- for cold water to cool buildings.
Solutions - Personal
Make your home & office efficient.
Drive an efficient car.
Don’t drive much over 55 mph.
Walk. (Be healthy!) Carpool.
Buy things that last.
Eat less feedlot beef.
Garden.
Reduce, re-use, recycle.
Ask Congress to price carbon.
Don’t over-size a house.
Don’t super size a vehicle.
Combine errands, idle 10 seconds tops.
Use bus, RR, subway. Bicycle.
Fix them when they break.
1 calorie = 7-10 of grain.Less is healthier!
Minimize packaging. Use cloth bags.
Cut CO2 emissions 80+% by 2050.
Enact incentives to take CO2 OUT of the air.
Move carbon from the air into the soil.
Tax carbon 2¢/lb, rising over 20 years to 4¢/lb.OR
QUESTIONS
Contact Dr.Dr. Gene Fry Gene Fry
for more details, citations & references.
www.globalwarming-sowhat.com