global warming and nw salmon 3 major questions: 1.how well do we understand the climate system and...
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Global Warming and NW salmon
3 major questions:
1. How well do we understand the climate system and our role in changing it?
2. What might the regional impacts of global warming look like?
3. What does the answer to question 2 mean for NW salmon?
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Earth’s Natural Greenhouse Effect
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Some facts• Earth’s natural greenhouse effect warms
surface temperatures by ~33ºC (60 º F)• H2O vapor the most powerful greenhouse
gas (GG)• other important GG’s are CO2, CH4, N2O,
HFCs, PFCs, and SF6 …
– Human caused emissions of these GG’s are increasing the natural greenhouse effect
– Without drastic changes in current emissions trends, GG concentrations will increase dramatically in the next few centuries
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Concentrations of Carbon Dioxide and Methane Have Risen Greatly Since Pre-Industrial Times
Carbon dioxide: 33% rise Methane: ~150% rise
The MetOffice. Hadley Center for Climate Prediction and Research.
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• from a very long term perspective, recent CO2 changes are enormous
Long-term CO2 history
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Annual Temperature Trends, (°C / century) 1901-1999
Source: P. Jones, et. al. 2000.
PNW average PNW average temperatures temperatures have risen have risen +1.5F/century+1.5F/century
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Trends in April 1 snow water equivalent, 1950-2000
Trends in snowmelt runoff timing, 1948-2000
Courtesy of Dan Cayan, Scripps Institute of Oceanography and the
USGS
To appear in Climatic Change, 2003
Courtesy of Phil Mote, UW Climate Impacts GroupGeophysical Res. Letts. 2003
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1928
2000
The South Cascade glacier retreated dramatically in the 20th century
Courtesy of Ed Josberger, USGS glacier group
Blue Glacier length, Olympic National Park
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Looking to the future…
• “global climate system models” now used to assess the impacts of human activities on Earth’s climate– Similar to the computer models used to predict
the weather, but much more sophisticated– simulate interactions between the atmosphere,
its constituents (C02, O2, O3, N2 …), the ocean, sea ice, vegetation, and clouds
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Northwest warming
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
1900s1910s1920s1930s1940s1950s1960s1970s1980s1990s2000s2010s2020s2030s2040s
Degrees C
warmest scenarioaverage coolest scenarioobserved
~1.5 to 3°Cor~ 3 to 6 °Fwarmer in the 2040’s
Most models also simulate slightly wetter winters
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The main impact: less snow
Snoqualmie Pass 3022 ft
} for a ~ 4F } for a ~ 4F warmingwarming
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Provided by Dennis Lettenmaier and Andy Wood, UW Civil EngineeringAccelerated Climate Prediction Initiative, a UW-SIO-PNNL collaboration
April 1st Snowpack simulations based on a low-end warming scenario
1950-99 2050’s 2090’s
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Runoff patterns are temperature and elevation dependent
Oct Feb Jun
Skagit
Puyallup
Skokomish
Oct Feb Jun
Oct Feb Jun
Puget Sound Precip
Oct Feb Jun
1900’s
a warmer climatea warmer climate
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1.1. StreamsStreams:: Higher flows during
incubation periods; Lower flows,
higher temperatures during
summer/fall rearing and
spawning;
INCREASED STRESSINCREASED STRESS
2.2. estuariesestuaries: : higher temperatures
and migration barriers;
INCREASED STRESSINCREASED STRESS; impacts
on predator/prey fields???
3.3. oceanocean:: warming and
stratification limits nutrients,
warmer temperatures alter
predator/prey fields;
INCREASED STRESSINCREASED STRESS
upwelling winds???
Climate and Salmon habitat
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Thermal limits in freshwater habitat
Lost by 2030Lost by 2030Lost by 2060Lost by 2060Lost by 2090Lost by 2090
Figure 16: Future Status of Salmon Habitat (CGCM 2 Model with A2 Emissions)
From Defenders of Wildlife and Natural Resources Defense Council, 2002: Effects of Global Warming on Trout and Salmon in US Streams
Use output from climate model scenarios (summertime air temperature change) to model stream temperature changes, compare with known water temperature limits
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Freshwater thermal limits: habitat change by species (DFW/NRDC 2002)
Based on 8 different climate change scenarios (combinations of 3 different models and 4 different emissions scenarios)
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upwelling food webs and environmental change in our coastal ocean: the California Current
Cool water, weak stratificationhigh nutrients, a productive “subarctic” food-chain with abundant forage fish and few warm water predators
Warm stratified ocean, fewnutrients, low productivity “subtropical” food web, a lack of forage fish and abundant predators
Progress in Oceanogr., 54 (2002)
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Sea surface temperatures and catch-per-unit-effort (cpue) for
steelhead (O. mykiss) on the high seas:
cpue peaks between 6 and 11ºC
(Burgner et al. 1992, INPFC)
High Seas Habitat?
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Welch et al’s (1998) Welch et al’s (1998) Thermal Thermal LimitsLimits
1. Salmon are surface oriented
2. They are metabolically constrained by surface ocean temperatures
3. Surface ocean warming will force salmon (sockeye and steelhead) out of the Pacific and into cooler northern oceans as metabolic rates accelerate with warming
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Sockeye salmon Sockeye salmon distributiondistribution
(Welch et al (Welch et al 1998)1998)
December
July
20th Century20th Century
distributiondistribution
2xCO22xCO2
distributiondistribution
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Temperature tag data from an adult Copper River (Alaska) fall run steelhead, 1998
age 2.3, spawning check at second ocean annulus
Chart provided by Kate Myers, UW FRI High Seas salmon program
High seas, to 40-60m depths Coastal Alaska current
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future climate scenarios: different model - emissions combinations give different answers
Tem
per
atu
re C
han
ge (
C)
Emissions uncertainty
model uncertainty
1.5 C1.5 C
6 C6 C
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What might climate change look like in the Northwest?
Considering 10 scenarios of future climate, the average changes from baseline:
• 1.7°C (3.1°F) warmer by 2020s
• 2.9°C (5.3°F) warmer by 2050s
• Warming similar in winter and summer
• Wetter winters (almost all models)
• Summer rainfall? – models divided, but all uphold strong seasonality
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Millennial Northern Hemisphere (NH) Temperature Reconstruction (blue) and Instrumental Data (red) from
AD 1000-1999
Source: Mann et al. 1999.