global warming and what to do about itoakham/slides-cc... · 2019. 9. 24. · outline of...
TRANSCRIPT
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GlobalWarmingandwhattodoaboutit
GeraldOakham PeterBlack
PeterBlack,GeraldOakhamClimateChange 12019-09-15
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ActiontolimitClimateChangeisUrgentlyNeededHEADLINES:-• “Climatechangeismakingsomehomesuninsurable”(CBCBusiness)• “ParismarkshottestdayonrecordasheatwavescorchesWesternEurope”(Globe&Mail- July)• “ThisJunewastheplanet’shottestmonthinrecordedhistory”REALITY:-• Globalwarming,causedbyhumans,isalreadyhappening• Ifglobalwarmingcontinuesunchecked,ourwayoflifewillworsenforever
ACTION:-• LobbypoliticiansandelectagovernmentthatwillactonClimateChange
PeterBlack,GeraldOakhamClimateChange 22019-09-15
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OutlineofPresentation
• GlobalWarming• It’sextentandcause• Theharmitiscausingalready• Thegreaterharmitcouldcauseifleftunchecked
• Responsestoglobalwarming• Mitigation• Adaptation
PeterBlack,GeraldOakhamClimateChange 32019-09-15
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GlobalWarming’sExtentandCause• Globaltemperaturehasrisenby1degreesincestartofIndustrialRevolution• Canadiantemperatureshaveincreasedbyalmostdoublethisamount
• ThisiscausedbyemissionsofGreenHouseGases(GHGs)duetohumanactivity
PeterBlack,GeraldOakhamClimateChange 42019-09-15
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“Historical”globaltemperatures
• Temperaturerecordreconstructedbylookingaticecores,fossilcomposition,treeringgrowth,etc.
• Smoothtemperaturevariationsoverpast2000yearswithsuddenincreaseinpastcentury
• Variationslocalnotglobal
PlottakenfromWikipedia,GlobalTemperatureRecord
PeterBlack,GeraldOakhamClimateChange 52019-09-15
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GlobalTemperaturessinceIndustrialRevolution
FromIPCC.Figure2.1SR1.5Chapter1
Globaltemperatureisaverageofmanyreadings
Globaltemperatureshaverisen1degreeinpast150years.
Globalwarmingcausedbyhumanactivity.
PeterBlack,GeraldOakhamClimateChange 62019-09-15
PlotfromIPCC=InternationalPanelonClimateChange
Greyshade– actualglobaltemperaturesYellowshade– temperatureriseattributedtohumanactivity
1860 2000
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CO2 andOperationofPlanet’sBiosphere• Carbondioxide(CO2)ismajorcomponentofcycleoflifeonEarth• Plantsabsorbcarbondioxide(CO2)andgiveoffoxygen• HumansandotheranimalstakeinoxygenandexhaleCO2
• CO2 levelshavebeenbelow300ppmforpast800,000years.**
• Inlastfewhundredyears,CO2 emissions“exploded”• InventionofmachinesandelectricityproductionbasedonfossilfuelsemittingCO2
• Hugeincreaseinpopulationandincomes• DeforestationforagriculturereducedplantlifetoabsorbCO2
• Meatconsumption=moreanimalsproducingmethane,anotherGHG
• CO2 levelsinAtmospherenowcloseto400ppmandrisingrapidly
PeterBlack,GeraldOakhamClimateChange 72019-09-15
**BasedonplotfromUSNationalOceanicandAtmosphericAdministration
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Greenhouseeffect
2019-09-15 PeterBlack,GeraldOakhamClimateChange 8
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ComparisonofCO2 andTemperatureChanges
RiseinglobaltemperatureiscausedbyrisinglevelsofGreenHouseGases(GHGs)suchasCO2.
RisinglevelsofatmosphericCO2 areconsistentwithamountofCO2emittedbyhumanactivity.
PeterBlack,GeraldOakhamClimateChange 92019-09-15
2000
400
300
1900
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AverageCanadiantemperatureshaveincreased1.7Cdegreesbetween1948and2016.
Temperatureincreasesinthenortharehigher:2.3C.
FromCanada’sChangingClimatereport(2019)
PeterBlack,GeraldOakhamClimateChange 102019-09-15
+40-1 C
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TemperatureincreasesinNorthernLatitudes
• Globalwarmingresultsinhigherincreasesatlocationsclosertopoles• A coupleofreasonsforthis:-1)Localeffects• Astemperaturesrise,snowandicemelt(formoreofyear)• Lesssunlightreflectedbacktospace(albedoeffect)• Higherlocalwarming
2)Globaleffects• Astemperatureswarm,atmosphericcirculationincreases• Agreaterpercentageofheatgetstransferredfromthetropicstothepoles
2019-09-15 PeterBlack,GeraldOakhamClimateChange 11
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Outline
• GlobalWarming• It’sextentandcause• Theharmitiscausingalready• Thegreaterharmitcouldcauseifleftunchecked
• Responsestoglobalwarming• mitigation• adaptation
PeterBlack,GeraldOakhamClimateChange 122019-09-15
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WorldwideHarmCausedbyGlobalWarmingAlready(I)• AtthePoles• LossofArcticSeaIce• LossGreenlandGlacialice
• Inonedayin201812.5billiontonnes oficemelted
U.S.NationalSnowandIceDataCentre PeterBlack,GeraldOakhamClimateChange 132019-09-15
ArcticiceextentinJuneinmillionsofsquarekm
Greenlandicemelt2019
1980 2020
1980- satellitedataavailable
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WorldwideHarmCausedbyGlobalWarmingAlready(II)• Oceanacidification,deathoflargepercentageofcoralreefs• Leadstospeciesloss
• Globalchangesinweatherpatterns• Moreintensetropicalstorms
TobyGardnerandcolleaguesfromtheUniversityofEastAngliainNorwich,UK
PeterBlack,GeraldOakhamClimateChange 142019-09-15
Coralreefloss
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GlobalWarmingalreadyexperiencedinCanada
• MoreintenseforestfiresinBCandAlberta• FortMcMurrayfirein2016• Upto25%ofresidentsnowsufferingfromPTSDasaresult
• FrequentfloodsinEasternCanada• Ottawarecentlyhadtwo1-in-100yearfloodsinquicksuccession
• Permafrostinnorth• Homeshavetoberebuiltduetolossoffoundation• Iceroadsdonotlastaslong
• LossofIceinnorth• Impactonanimalsandsociety
• Increaseininvasiveplants/animalsfromSouthashabitatzonesmovenorth• IncreaseinLymediseaseinOntarioandQuebec
PeterBlack,GeraldOakhamClimateChange 152019-09-15
BlackLeggedtick
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Outline
• GlobalWarming• It’sextentandcause• Theharmitiscausingalready• Thegreaterharmitcouldcauseifleftunchecked
• Responsestoglobalwarming- mitigation
• Responsestoglobalwarming- adaptation
PeterBlack,GeraldOakhamClimateChange 162019-09-15
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PredictionsofClimateChange:climatemodelling
• Predictionscomefrommodelsofearth’sbiosphere• ClimatescientistsuseseveralclimatemodelstoprovidemostlikelychangestoenvironmentduetoincreasesinGHGs• IPCCcombinesthesepredictions.• Variationsinpredictionsofmodelsgiverangeoflikelyoutcomes• Differentscenariosareusedtoexploreimpactofdifferenthumanactionssuchas:• “Businessasusual”• “CutGHGemissionsaccordingtoIPCCrecommendationtolimittemperatureincreaseto1.5C.“• (MoreonIPCCrecommendationslater.)
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Projectedworldtemperaturerisesfordifferentscenarios
NotebluescenariorequiresbothreductioninGHGemissionsandcarboncapture(moreonthislater).
PlotfromFromIPCCAR5report
Scenarios:-Blue– optimistic actiontoreduceGHGemissionsRed– pessimistic littleactiontoreduceGHGemissions(GHG– GreenHouseGases)
PeterBlack,GeraldOakhamClimateChange 182019-09-15
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AverageprojectedtemperaturerisesforCanada:BlueoptimisticRed- Pessimistic
FromCanada’sChangingClimatereport(2019)
PeterBlack,GeraldOakhamClimateChange 192019-09-15
1900 21002000
+15
0
+15
0
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Whatharmwould 1.5or2degreewarmingcauseWhileprecisepredictionsaredifficult,thefollowingislikely:-• IcefreeArcticinsummerbythe2030s• MeltingGreenlandandAntarcticIceSheetsandoceanwarmingcausesealevelrise• (7msealevelriseifallGreenlandicemelts)
• Increaseinmajorweatherevents• Shiftingweatherpatterns(moresnow/lesssnowdependingonlocation),storms• Habitatlossforanimalsandhumans• Ecologicalmigration– politicalunrest
PeterBlack,GeraldOakhamClimateChange 202019-09-15
SealevelriseThishasbeenacceleratinginthepast5years
1900 2100
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PredictionsofClimateChange:Tippingpoints• Theearth’sclimatehassemi-stablefeaturesthatcangiverisetorun-awaytemperatureincreases.(Tippingpoints)• Thiswouldbeinadditiontothetemperatureincreasesalreadydiscussed.• Examples:• Permafrost:meltingofpermafrostreleasesmethane,apowerfulGHGthatacceleratesglobalwarming• Arcticseaice:lossofseaicereducesalbedoeffect,moreheatisabsorbedfromsunwhichacceleratesglobalwarming• Greenlandglacier.Meltingdarkensglaciersurfaceleadingtolargerabsorptionofheatleadingtomoreicemelting
• Exacttemperatureatwhichtippingpointswouldbeginisdifficulttopredict!
PeterBlack,GeraldOakhamClimateChange 212019-09-15
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Outline
• GlobalWarming
• Responsestoglobalwarming- mitigation• Internationalinitiatives• CanadianInitiatives• Initiativesyoucantake
• Responsestoglobalwarming- adaptation
PeterBlack,GeraldOakhamClimateChange 222019-09-15
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Mitigation– InternationalInitiatives
• 1992– UnitedNationsFrameworkConventiononClimateChange(“UNConvention”)• aimtostabilizeGHGconcentrationstopreventdangerousinterferencewithclimatesystem
• ConferenceofParties(COP)– meetseveryyearsince1995• growingnumberofcountriesassessprogressandreachagreements
• 2015COPMeeting– ParisAgreement• 197countriesagreedtolimittheirGHGemissionsinordertolimitfutureGWtolessthan2.0degreesand“dotheirbest”tolimititto1.5degrees
• NextCOPmeeting– Chile2019– Dec2-13
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Mitigation– InternationalInitiatives
• 1988- IntergovernmentalPanelonClimateChange(IPCC)• UNbodytosupportUNConvention• producesconsensusreportsbyleadingclimatescientistswithsupportofparticipatinggovernments• scientificauthoritysupportedbypoliticalrepresentatives
• Oct2018– IPCCSpecialReportonGlobalWarming(GW)• ParisAgreementwouldallowGWof3degreesby2100• limitingGWto1.5degreeswouldrequiredecreaseinnetemissionsfrom2010of45%by2030andzeronetemissionsby2050
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FigurefromIPCCreportshowsthatinitiativesinParisAgreementwouldleadtoglobalwarmingexceeding1.5degreesby2040
Anyplantokeepwarmingbelow1.5degreesrequiresbothGHGcontrolandremovingCO2fromatmosphere(carboncapture)
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CarbonCapture• AllIPCCscenariosassumesignificantamountofCarbonCapture• takingCO2fromatmosphereandputtingitintostableform
• Biological• Plantingtrees(limitedlandavailableforthis)
• Industrial• ChemicalprocessestoconvertCO2 tocarbontobeusedorstored.
• Requireslotofenergy(needcleanenergysource)• Moreefficientfrompointsource(factory)ratherthanfromatmosphere• SomeCO2 beingpumpedintooilwellstohelpextractoilandkeepCO2 underground
• Severalsmallcarboncaptureplantsexist– 4inCanada• Sofar,alltheseplantsworldwideonlycapture30Megatonnesperyear.
• (Canada’sannualCO2emissions>700MT/year.)• Greatdealofworkrequiredtoproduceeffectivecommercial-scaleplants
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Outline
• GlobalWarming
• Responsestoglobalwarming- mitigation• Internationalinitiatives• Canadianinitiatives• Initiativesyoucantake
• Responsestoglobalwarming- adaptation
PeterBlack,GeraldOakhamClimateChange 272019-09-15
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Canada’sGreenHouseGasEmissions
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SlidefromGovernmentofCanada
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PeterBlack,GeraldOakhamClimateChange 292019-09-15
Year
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Canada’sClimateChangeActionPlan(2016)(majorfederalmeasures)
• Increasingpriceoncarbon(certainprovinces)• $60billionoverdecade• Electric-vehiclerebate,publictransit,energyefficiency,lowcarbontechnology
• Regulations(planned)• Phaseoutcoal-basedelectricity• Reducecarboncontentinfuels(CleanFuelStandard– 2022-30)• Increasegasmileageincars/trucks
Source:GlobeandMail– Aug27andSep1andMarkJaccard website
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NeedforRadicalActionisnowmainstreamnews
“Theclimateischanginginwaysthatcarrytheriskofcatastrophe
intheabsenceofradicalaction”
EconomistMagazineJuly2019
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AchievingNetZeroEmissionsby2050(initiativeslikelyneeded)
• Decarbonizeelectricitygeneration• switchtorenewables– wind,solarbiomass,maintainnuclearpowerwhiledevelopingenergystorage.
• Decarbonizegroundtransportation– switchtoelectricorhydrogen• Industry– increasingpriceoncarbonemission• Energyefficiencyforbuildings– regulatebuildingcodesandretrofit• Forestmanagement– preventdeforestation,pursuereforestation/afforestation.• Setupcarboncaptureplants• someactivitieswillalwaysneedfossilfuels– airtravel,concrete
• Majormeasurestoaddressshiftinlabour force– supportneeded2019-09-15 PeterBlack,GeraldOakhamClimateChange 32
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Outline
• GlobalWarming
• Responsestoglobalwarming-mitigation• Internationalinitiatives• CanadianInitiatives• Initiativeswecantake–individuallyandcollectively
• Responsestoglobalwarming- adaptation
PeterBlack,GeraldOakhamClimateChange 332019-09-15
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InitiativesWeCanTaketoreduceglobalwarming
• Individually• Reducecarbonfootprint• Purchasecarbonoffsets
• Collectively• ElectClimate-Change-EffectiveGovernments• Continuouslypressuregovernmentstotakeeffectiveaction
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Individually- ReduceCarbonFootprint
Modifyconsumptionpatterns• electricity,homeheating• vehicleuse,travel• purchaselocalproducts
Switchtocleanertechnology- noworwhenitneedsreplacing• electricity– LEDlights• homeheating– insulationandfurnace• vehicle– moreefficientorcleaner:hybridorelectric
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Individually- PurchaseCarbonOffsets
• Airplanetravel• purchaseoffsetforeachflight• airlinesandotherbusinessesprovideoffsets– e.g.,AirCanada
• Residentialandvehicleuse• offsetbusinesseswillusecarbonoffsetpaymentto“pull”renewableenergyontohydrogridortosupportbiomasstooffsetfossil-basedresidentialenergyuse– e.g,BullfrogPower• similarprincipleappliedtofuelusedinvehicle
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ElectClimate-Change-EffectiveGovernments
• Onlygovernmentscanbringaboutradicalactionneeded• Governmentshaveuniquepowers• taxation• regulation
• Federalelection– October21• Needtoelectgovernmentcommittedtoeffectiveclimatechangeaction• NeedtounderstandCCplatformsofdifferentparties• Allpartieshavenowreleasedtheirpositionsonclimatechange
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ElectC-C-EffectiveGovernments
• Pollsshow65%ofCanadianswantCC-effectivegovernment•Needtovoteforpartyinyourridingwith• effectiveclimatechangeplan• chanceofwinningriding
• Ifyourfavoured partydoesnothaveaclimatechangepolicyyouagreewith- lobbyyourridingcandidate,yourpartyleaderandyourpartytochange.• Beawareofissueswith“first-past-the-post”votingsystem.
• Votesplittingcanhaveunintendedconsequences• Possibletoelectcandidatewithonly35%ofthevote
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ContinuouslyPressureCandidates/Governments
• Federalelection– presscandidatestotakeeffectiveaction• attendmtgs• meetwithcandidatesone-on-one• sendletters/emailstocandidatesvoicingyourconcerns
• Seewebsitefordraftletterstoelectioncandidates• https://people.physics.carleton.ca/~oakham/CC-main.html
• Afterelection,continuetopressyourMP
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ElectClimateChangeEffectiveGovernments
• Wehave11yearstoreduceGHGemissionstolimitclimatechange
• OurGovernmentneedstomakechangesinnext18months
• WhichpartygetselectedinOctoberiscriticalforCanada’senvironmentandourfuture
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ContinuouslyPressureGovernments
• Supportmovements/organizationswhicharedemandingradicalaction• FridaysforFuture• ExtinctionRebellion
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FridaysforFuture
• Studentsonstriketopressuregovernmentstoact•MovementstartedbyGretaThunbergAugust2018• 16year-oldSwede
• Studentsstrikingin30countries• Severalrallies/protestsonParliamentHillin2019
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ExtinctionRebellion
• BeganOxford,England– October2018• engageinnon-violentdirectactionandcivildisobediencetoprotestgovernmentinactiononclimatechange• Pressuregovernmenttoenactlegallybindingpolicymeasurestoreducecarbonemissionstonetzeroby2025
• ExtinctionRebellionOttawa• beganJanuary2019• talks,marches, trafficdisruption• 600members
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Outline
• GlobalWarming• It’sextentandcause• Theharmitiscausingalready• Thegreaterharmitcouldcauseifleftunchecked
• Responsestoglobalwarming- mitigation• Internationalinitiatives• CanadianInitiatives• Initiativesyoucantake
• Responsestoglobalwarming-adaptation
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Adaptation
• EvenwithmajorefforttolimitGHGemissions,temperatureswillriseandhaveanimpactonourlives.• Itisimportantatalllevelsofgovernmentthatplansareputinplacetodealwiththesechanges• Itisequallyimportantthatindividualstakethisintoaccountintheirplans
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Adaptation:Government• FederalGovernment• Northernareaswillbeicefreeforlargepartsofsummer• Policyrequiredtodealwiththis- newnorthernbases,icecapableships,searchandrescuebases.
• ClimateemergencieswillputlargerstrainonArmedForces– needtoexpandforcesorcreatenewcivildefenseforce• Reviewhowinsurancepoliciesdealwithdisasters(roleofGovernment?)• Climaterefugeeclaimswillexceedlevelwehaveseensofar– apolicyisrequiredforthis
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Adaptation:Government• Provincial/Federal• Floodingoncoastsandbesiderivers
• Whatisbestwaytohelpcitizens– financialassistance,payingthemtomove?
• Stormproofinghydrogrids•Municipalities• Updatefloodplainmaps– controlconstruction• Coolingcentres - planstoassistcitizensinheatwaves• Ensureemergencyplanningisuptodate
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Adaptation:Canadians• General• Avoidbuyinghousesorlivinginareasdesignatedasfloodplains
• Homeupgrades• Toroofsforstrongerwinds(shingles)• Todealwithheavyrains(eavestroughs,downspouts,landscaping)• Tohomeinsulation
• Emergencypreparationsforextendedhydrooutages• Batteries,flashlights,batteryradio,cannedfoods,candles,etc• (currentbatteryback-upforcellphonetowersisquitelimited!)
• NorthernCanada??PeterBlack,GeraldOakhamClimateChange 482019-09-15
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Concludingremarks
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ClimateChangeActionisRequired• Globalwarmingisnotafutureevent– itishappeningnowandhavingmajorandvisibleimpacts• Globallywehave11yearstomakechangestolimitClimateChange• Wehave18monthstoputinplaceregulationsrequiredtomeetthe2030goal
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ItiscriticalthatweelectagovernmentinOctoberthatwillmakethistheirtoppriority.