Global WarmingEnergy Challenges

CMAQ PresentationJanuary 9, 2006

Overview

• Greenhouse effect– Historic carbon emissions / CO2 rise

– Forcing models / temperature predictions

• Effect of a warming earth (1 degree F)

• Peak oil / Hubbert’s peak– Future and current energy challenges

• Energy equity – the road ahead

Solar Energy and earth’s Heat

http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/climate/globalwarming.html

http://www.grida.no/climate/vital/04.htm

250 yrs of Carbon Emissions

It took 125 years to burn the first trillion barrels of oil – we’llburn the next trillion in less than 30 years – why should you care?

Rising CO2 over 50 Years

http://earthguide.ucsd.edu/globalchange/keeling_curve/01.html

Carbon Emissions and CO2

• Carbon burned => CO2

• Linear from 1850 to 2000- ppm CO2 =2.55 e10-4 *M tons C

+ 297 ppm (r2*100=99%)

• ~ 50% of carbon goes into atmospheric CO2

– 33% into the oceans

• Trend is constant over 150 years – is this how the biosphere will react over the next 150 years?

Year C burned ppm CO21900 12307 2951910 19174 3001920 28050 3051930 37914 3101940 48566 3101950 62324 3151960 83453 3201970 115935 3251980 164083 3401990 219365 3502000 283373 370

A near perfect correlation that predicts ppm CO2 from total carbon burned

http://www.mala.bc.ca/~earles/ipcc-tar-feb01.htm

Global Warming - the 20th Century

Earth Out of Balance

http://www.giss.nasa.gov/research/news/20050428/

Forcing, Predicted Temperature, and Climate Lag, 2000 - 2100

00.51

1.52

2.53

3.54

4.55

2000 2025 2050 2075 2100

ForcingFeltOwed

0F - Model built assuming ~60% of forcing is felt in ~25 years

Consequences of Warming

• Thinning of polar ice caps– Thawing permafrost / release of methane

• Slowing of the thermohaline cycle• Rising sea level, perhaps quickly• Extreme weather events

– Extended regions of drought– Extremes of temperature / duration– Extremes of storms and hurricanes

All these are consequences of only one degree F for <50 years!

The Melting North Pole

The North Pole is thinning in area ~10% per decade,and thinning in thickness ~1 meter per decade. At theserates, it may be an open sea as early as 2030 – 2050.

http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/Study/ClimateClues/

Storms on the Move

Katrina movingacross Florida

in late August 2005finds warm water

in the Gulf of Mexico

And grows from acategory 1 to a

category 5 hurricanein less than 2 days!

Peak Oil – ‘After the Crash’

http://www.lifeaftertheoilcrash.net/

Oil Production – Reserves

Data from ‘The Inevitable Peaking of World Oil Production’, Hirsch, 2005

Projected Energy Demand

http://www.enecho.meti.go.jp/english/energy/world/outlook.html

Energy Equity

• Burning oil is burning money!• Build an energy infrastructure with equity• Solar energy is primary, not alternative!

– $25 billion economy for ‘million solar roofs’– Every MW of solar energy creates 24 jobs in

manufacturing, and 8 for local installers

• Built in America, by Americans, for America, what could be more economic?

http://www.solarelectricpower.org/

Summary

• Greenhouse effect – carbon cycle

• Forcing models – temperature lag

• Effect of warming just one degree

• Peak oil – declining energy production

• Energy Equity – and the road ahead– Our single biggest challenge– Our single biggest opportunity

References

• http://www.realclimate.org/ • http://www.giss.nasa.gov/• http://www.sc.doe.gov/ober/CCRD/model.html• http://www.nersc.gov/projects/gcm_data/ • http://www.solarelectricpower.org/ • http://www.nrel.gov/• http://www.eia.doe.gov/ • http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peak_oil