global warming & flooding: nigeria perspectives and way forward
DESCRIPTION
HWOSA UYO BRANCH END OF YEAR -2012 LECTURETRANSCRIPT
GLOBAL WARMING AND FLOODING: NIGERIAN PERSPECTIVE –
THE WAY FORWARD
By: Dr. Eniang, E. A (Guest Lecturer)
Department of Forestry and Wildlife
University of Uyo, Uyo
Akwa Ibom State
07088881313
Being an invited lecture at the Hope Waddell Old Students’ Association (HWOSA)
Uyo Branch, Akwa Ibom State Annual get together
CONTENTS
Introduction
Map of flood
Affected Areas In Nigeria
Governors and Actors Shows Sympathy
Family and community preparedness
The way forward
Recommendations
Introduction
• The latest tragedy to befall Nigeria, is the
great and unprecedented flood of 2012
which has badly exposed Nigeria's rump
and particularly the state of unpreparedness
of the Nigerian state to cope with natural
disasters. After the initial shock and awe,
accusations are now flying left, right and
centre like heat-seeking missiles about who
and what caused the flood
Introduction Contd
• . The government has responded in the only
manner it knows best, it has doled out
=N=17.6 billion to rehabilitate the victims.
It has also set up a committee to raise more
cash with much fanfare
What Causes Floods?
• Global warming, the type, frequency and
intensity of extreme events, such as
• tropical cyclones (including hurricanes and
typhoons), floods, droughts and heavy
precipitation events, are expected to rise
even with relatively small average
temperature increases.
6
The Greenhouse Gases
• Major gases are:
– Water vapour
– Carbon dioxide
– Methane
– Nitrous oxide
– Chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs)
– Ozone
• Some occur naturally, some result only from human activity,
• Others occur both naturally and as a result of human activity
• Contribution of each to GHE is a function of 3 factors
– Atmospheric lifetime
– Global warming potential
– Atmospheric concentration
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Is the Climate really changing/Is Global
Warming already happening?
• YES! An increasing body of observations gives a collective picture of a warming world and other changes in the climate system.
Examples of observed climatic changes
• Crease in global average surface temperature of about 10F in the 20th century
• Decrease of snow cover and sea ice extent and the retreat of mountain glaciers in the latter half of the 20th century.
• Rise in global average sea level and the increase in ocean water temperatures
• Likely increase in average precipitation over the middle and high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere, and over tropical land areas
• Increase in the frequency of extreme precipitation events in some regions of the world
8
General Effects of Global Warming
• Sea-level – a 20cm rise by 2030
• Agriculture & forestry – crop failure & famine
• Water resources – change in global rainfall patterns
• Terrestrial ecosystems – many plants & animal spp. Will have problems adapting, others will not
• Human health – increase in the spread of certain diseases
– Malaria could reach parts of Europe, including UK
– Urban air pollution will get worse
– Heat-induced deaths likely to increase
– Adverse weather conditions, e.g. storms & floods will wreak havoc
– Lives will be lose, insurance premiums will rise
Furthermore
• Global climate change indicates a change
in either the mean state of the climate or in
its variability, persisting for several decades
or longer. It is important to note that
changes in individual weather events will
potentially contribute substantially to
changes in climate variability. Climate
change could occur naturally as a result of a
change in the sun’s energy or
Or
• Earth’s orbital cycle (natural climate
forcing), or it could occur as a result of
persistent anthropogenic forcing, such as
the addition of greenhouse gases, sulphate
aerosols, or black carbon to the atmosphere,
or through land-use change
The situation leads to..
• A variety of climatic and non-climatic
processes influence flood processes,
resulting in river floods, flash floods, urban
floods, sewer floods, glacial lake outburst
floods and coastal floods. These flood-
producing processes include intense and /or
long-lasting precipitation, snow melt, dam
• break, reduced conveyance due to jams or
land-slides or by storm
Recent Experiences
• Flooding has created serious emergencies in
several Nigerian communities thereby
putting many families at risk. Recent
experiences show that farmlands and crops
have been devastated leaving behind a lot of
pains , deaths, economic hardship and
frustrated people who have lost their
sources of livelihoods
Map of showing extent of Flood in Nigeria – in ‘blue’ are the
states affected in September 2012 as Reported in National Media
The Associated problems
• Climate change will have wide-ranging effects on the
environment, and on socio-economic and related
sectors, including water resources, agriculture and
food security, human health, terrestrial
• ecosystems and biodiversity and coastal zones.
Changes in rainfall pattern are likely to lead to severe
water shortages and/or flooding. Climate change will
act as a multiplier of existing threats to food security
Flood In Major Areas of Nigeria
Akwa Ibom State Rainfall destroys property in Uyo Oando Filing Sation in Lagos State
Udaba-Ephei in Etsako Central LGA of Edo state Ughelli North Local Government Area of Delta State
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NIGERIAN COASTAL ZONE AND
CLIMATE CHANGE
• Maritime state with coastline of about
853km.
• Coastline is low-lying with heights not
more than 3.5metres above sea level.
• High proportion of population (about 23%).
• Industrial establishment 80% concentrated.
• Oil & gas industry, source of over 90% of
the economy located here.
Flood In Major Areas of Nigeria, Cont’d
Flood Disaster Kogi State flood Crocodile which was washed along with the flood into the
Benue community. Some witnesses also say some
hippopotami were spotted along the banks of the River
Benue.
Died bodies were recovered from the Benue River Plateau witnesses worst flood in 50 years
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URBAN SETTLEMENTS WITHIN
COASTAL ZONE • Lagos, Warri, Sapele, Port-Harcourt, Calabar
Historical Settlements
• Badagry, Forcados, Brass, Abonema, Buguma, Burutu, Bonny, Opobo
Urban centres characterised by
• High population densities and squatter settlements
• Poor planning
• Inadequate housing, potable water, roads
• Poor transport and communication facilities
• Limited waste disposal and health facilities, etc
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Table 1: Land area and population density of
coastal states in Nigeria Census 1992
STATE 1992 CENSUS AREA (sq km) DENSITY (had/per km2)
DELTA/EDO 4,730,029 35,500 133
CROSS RIVER/ AKWA IBOM
4,220,340 27,237 155
LAGOS 5,685,781 3,345 1,700
OGUN 2,338,570 16,762 140
ONDO 3,884,485 20,959 185
RIVERS/BAYELSA 3,983,857 21,850 182
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IMPACTS
Most cities will experience
• More heatwaves
• Air pollution
• Warmer temperatures will extend the range of some diseases and increase risks from diarrhea diseases
• City economic will suffer as agriculture in surrounding areas is affected
• Flooding and mudslides
• Glacial retreat will reduce water availability
• Unfortunately most urban governments lack The competence
Capacity to act
Have huge infrastructure backlogs
Regard it as environmental issue of little importance
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IMPACT OF GLOBAL SEA RISE IN
NIGERIA
• ONE METRE SEA LEVEL RISE
– Flood 18,000sq.km of land
– Damage asset valued at US$9 billion
– Force relocation of up to 3.7 million people
• Cost of protecting Nigeria from a sea level
rise of one metre estimated to be US$3,162
billion.
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Table 2: Scenarios of the Displacement of People for
various Levels of Sea Level Rise (SLR) in Nigeria
(Million People)
Scenario (SLR), meter 0.2 0.5 1.0 2.0
No protection 0.64 1.60 3.18 8.50
Important areas protected 0.20 0.52 1.06 1.99
Total protection 0.10 0.27 0.56 0.99
Source: French et al., (1994)
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Table 3: Impacts of Sea Level Rise in the Niger
Delta
Present 1m SLR 2m SLR
Erosion rate m/year 10-15 16-19 20-25
Area lost to erosion km2 26-45 55-120 130-230
Inundation and erosion km2 3,000 7,000 15,000
Percent of area lost % 15 35 75
Villages impacted no 50 200 350
People displaced million 0.15 1-2 2-3
Note: The Niger Delta is defined as an area of 2 million ha.
Source: Awosika et al., (1992)
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Table 4: Cost of Protecting against Sea Level Rise
(SLR)
(Million US$)
SLR
Areas:
0.5m 1.0m 2.0m
Only highly developed areas
220-320
560-670
1,700-1,922
Incl. moderate developed areas
610-890
400-1,780
3,537-3,992
Note: The costs occur over 50 years (2051-2100)
Source: WDR, 1992: Development and the environment. The
World development report, The World Bank, Oxford
University Press, 329pp. (cf. French et al., op.cit.).
` Governors and Actors Shows Sympathy
Gov Peter Obi Governor Peter Obi Abandons Independence
Parade to Lead Evacuation of 76,000 Flood Victims
Aki & Pawpaw at Delta State, South South
Nigeria for victims of flood in that state.
Delta State Gov. Emma Uduaghan,
Pawpaw, Aki with some of the victims
Flood In Major Areas of Nigeria, Cont’d
FLOOD AT ZAKI LGA OF BAUCHI STATE Flooded Lokoja-Abuja road divides Northern Nigeria
Delta State Flood Flooded Lokoja-Abuja road divides Northern Nigeria
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THE WAY FORWARD: MITIGATION
Mitigation of Impacts of Climate Change
Establishment of Coastal Management Policies including:
• Phased disengagement from the coast, where practicable.
• Enforcement of set-back lines.
• In already built-up areas, use low-cost erosion control technology and flood defense measures.
• Prevention of new development in the coastal zone.
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MITIGATION (BUILT-UP AREAS OF
CITIES) In already built-up areas of cities or where the disengagement
of coastal infrastructure is impossible due to the economics of
such disengagement:
• Advocate use of low – cost, low – technology erosion and
flood defense measures e.g.
– Raise height of beach above the reach of the tides
– Use locally available raw materials such as chicoco blocks,
ripraps and timber to construct erosion and flood combating
structures.
• Less carbon – intensive urban lifestyles are needed
• Including energy – efficient buildings, transport and
production systems.
As a Consequence,
• Global warming leads to rising sea levels
and increased storm activity, it follows that
it has the potential to increase both the
frequency and severity of many of the types
of flooding mentioned earlier. As a result, it
is increasingly important to resolve the
issues relating to flood risk assessment and
its possible adaptation options
FAMILY PREPAREDNESS
This may begin from the media information on
floods. In recent months, Television, Radio and
Newspapers are loaded with news items
concerning floods. But how many of us ever
wonder what they will do if such events should
occur in our community?
How will you cope, what would you do to prevent or
reduce associated hazzards?
BEFORE THE FLOOD
What are the early warning signs of the impending flood disaster?
Very heavy clouds, loud thunders most times herald the arrival of torrential rains and potential heavy flooding
Therefore begin to prepare by holding discussions with family and possibly community members
DURING THE FLOODS, WHAT
STEPS?
• * Get a battery powered radio to get news
and safety directives from both TV and
Radio stations around
• *Get your family to designated meeting
place in your community before floods
cover your area and access routes. Climb
and stay on top of a tree if you are cut-off
from the meeting point
Conclusion
• Flooding is a real, Let us work together to
work towards its mitigation. Let us learn to
adapt to our changing environment for
sustainable development, secured living and
a better earth