global warming - impactsnatural global warming/cooling cycles over past 800,000 years hansen et al,...
TRANSCRIPT
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Are there impacts observed thus far caused by the rise in global temperature?
Paul VincelliExtension Professor and
Provost’s Distinguished Service Professor
Preparing the next generation
Objective
To raise awareness of scientifically documented impacts thought to
be associated with anthropogenic global warming.
Outline
Introductory topics Geophysical and biological trends associated
with anthropogenic climate change g g Documented trends vs. expected trends
Where to find mainstream climate science Some teaching resources
Was Superstorm Sandy due to global warming?
Attribution studies
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Video: Weather vs. climate
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=e0vj-0imOLw&feature=plcp
Atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases
IPCC. FAQ
Natural global warming/cooling cycles over past 800,000 years
Hansen et al, 2012
Note temperature differences between ice ages and interglacial periods
Global temperature over past 1000 years
Surface Temperature Reconstructions for the Last 2,000 Years, National Research Council, 2006.
Geographic distribution of warming
Surface temperature change (°C) from 1900-1910 to 2000-2011, from NASA GISS
Annual temperature, Kentucky
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Questions or comments?A few impacts observed in agriculture
Southern bacterial wilt recently diagnosed in Kentucky
http://www.cals.ncsu.edu/course/pp728/Ralstonia/Tomato_bacterial_wilt_symptoms.html
Bacteria streaming from vascular tissue of root
Example of outbreak of southern bacterial wilt
Changes in USDA Plant Hardiness Zones
Longer growing seasons
Weather and Climate Extremesin a Changing ClimateSynthesis and Assessment Product 3.3Report by the U.S. Climate Change Science Program and the Subcommittee on Global Change Research, 2008
Impact of climate trends on corn yield, 1980-2008
Climate Trends and Global Crop Production Since 1980, Science 333:616, 2011
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Geophysical and biological trends associated with anthropogenic climate change
Summer temperature anomalies in northern hemisphere Mean vs. extremes
VIDEO AT: http://svs.gsfc.nasa.gov/vis/a000000/a003900/a003975/bell_final_comp.m4v
Cryosphere: Sea ice vs. ice sheets vs. glaciers
Continental ice sheet(http://www.solcomhouse.com/icecap.htm)
Sea ice (at right)(http://fac-staff.seattleu.edu/gualtieri/web/images/sea_ice.jpg)
Glacier(http://www.usgs.gov/images/topical/glaciers/dsc00035.jpg
Area of sea ice
Arctic Antarctic
http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/ See also http://www.nasa.gov/topics/earth/features/arctic-antarctic-ice.html
Arctic sea ice
http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/IOTD/view.php?id=79256&src=share
Melting ice sheets
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Most glaciers are losing mass
Muir Glacier, photographed by W. O. Field in August 1941 and B. F. Molnia in August 2004
Permafrost temperatures (degrees C, at 20 m depth)
V.E. Romanovsky, updated from Osterkamp, T. E. (2003). A thermal history of permafrost in Alaska, In: Phillips, M., Springman, S.M. and Arenson, L.U. eds. 8th International Conference on Permafrost, 20-25 July 2003, Zurich. Lisse, A.A. Balkema Publishers.
Methane emitted from melting permafrost
The total carbon in permafrost >1600 Gt more than 2X the
Courtesy UAF Photo by Todd Paris
>1600 Gt, more than 2X the atmospheric total (Brysse et al, 2012, Global Envir. Change)
Duration of ice cover on lakes
http://www.epa.gov/climatechange/indicators/pdfs/CI-snow-and-ice.pdf
Questions and comments?
Clarity? Doubts?
Pedagogy?Curriculum?
Observed global mean sea level (from tide gauges)
Cazenave and Llovel. 2010. Contemporary Sea Level Rise. Annu. Rev. Mar. Sci. 2:145–73
In geologic past, sea level changed 10-20 m for every 1°C. (Archer, 2012, Global Warming. J. Wiley.
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Warning: “Alarmist” image follows
James Hansen, NASA
Rate of sea level rise depends in part on West Antarctica
http://geology.com/world/antarctica-satellite-image.shtml
Questions and comments?
Clarity? Doubts?
Pedagogy?Curriculum?
Huntington, Climate Warming-Induced Intensification of the Hydrologic Cycle: An Assessment of the Published Record and Potential Impacts on Agriculture, Advances in Agronomy
Intense rainfall events are increasing
http://ngm.nationalgeographic.com/2012/09/extreme-weather/data-charts
Trend in Palmer Drought Severity Index
J. GEOPHYSICAL RES 116:D12115 Trend in Sahel linked to AGW via modeling studies.
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Atmospheric water content increasing since 1900
Santer et al, 2007, Identification of human-induced changes in atmospheric moisture content. PNAS 104:15248.
Aerosols from Mt. Pinatubo affected global hydrologic cycle
Huntington, Climate Warming-Induced Intensification of the Hydrologic Cycle: An Assessment of the Published Record and Potential Impacts on Agriculture, Advances in Agronomy
Intensifying global water cycle due to global warming, as measured by changes in sea surface salinity
Observed Modeled with warming
Durack et al. 2012. Ocean Salinities Reveal Strong Global Water Cycle Intensification. During 1950 to 2000. Science 336:455-458.
Salinityunits
Testing for a “human fingerprint”: Comparing observations to model runs including (and excluding) the effects of greenhouse gases.
Flooding
No clear trend of increased flooding associated with global warming
Tornadoes and hurricanes
Still scientific debate about the role of greenhouse gases…
Numerous elements of hydrological cycle are increasing
But impacts on major storms remains debatable
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Questions or comments?
Clarity? Doubts?
Pedagogy?Curriculum?
Rossby waves are meandering upper-level winds
Pink=jet stream
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rossby_wave
Changes in Arctic are being linked to persistent weather systems in mid-latitudes
Rossby waves with higher amplitude, slower movement Predicted from theory Documented in research
Sometimes referred to as atmospheric “blocking”
See http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4spEuh8vswE and Francis et al, Evidence linking Arctic amplification to extreme weather in mid-latitudes, 2012, Geophys. Res. Lett.
Explanation in “An Arctic Wild Card in the Weather”, at http://www.tos.org/oceanography/archive/25-2_greene.pdf
Hurricane Sandy’s westerly turn
http://www.skepticalscience.com/hurricane-sandy-double-whammy.html
Start video at 4 min, 10 sec
Ocean CO2
Creating conditions mimicking the end of the Permian, the greatest period of extinction in Earth’s history.
NASA
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Forest die-off from around the world
Anderegg et al, 2012. Consequences of widespread tree mortality triggered by drought and temperature stress. Nature Climate Change, DOI: 10.1038/NCLIMATE1635
Changing geographic ranges
http://newswatch.nationalgeographic.com/2010/07/21/american_robins_move_into_arctic/
Loblolly pine in Kentucky
http://people.duke.edu/~cwcook/trees/pita.html
Changing geography of ecological niches
Centroid of a triangle
VandeWal et al, 2012. Focus on poleward shifts in species’ distribution underestimates the fingerprint of climate change. Nature Climate Change DOI: 10.1038/NCLIMATE1688
At left, changing niches of bird species in Australia, 1950-2010, indicated by changing niche centroids.
Changes in flowering times in plants
Early season species are flowering earlier.
Late-season species are flowering later.
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Questions or comments?
Clarity? Doubts?
Pedagogy?Curriculum?
Concerns for human health/well-being
Increased risk of infectious diseases
http://www.michigan.gov/deq/0,4561,7-135-3313_46123_24554-68318--,00.htmlhttp://www.aspca.org/pet-care/small-pet-care/rat-care.aspxhttp://www.fcps.edu/islandcreekes/ecology/american_dog_tick.htm
Increased risk of heat-related illnesses
Images from the Centers for Disease Control
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Cardiovascular risks from increasing ozone
Devlin et al, 2012. Controlled Exposure of Healthy Young Volunteers to Ozone Causes Cardiovascular Effects. Circulation 126:104-111
Asthma
Image of the World Health Organization
Vibrio cases increase in the Baltic Sea with warming temp
Baker-Austin et al, 2012. Emerging Vibrio risk at high latitudes in response to ocean warming. Nature Climate Change DOI: 10.1038/NCLIMATE1628
Heat and mental health
Page et al, 2007. Relationship between daily suicide counts and temperature in England and Wales. Brit. J. Psychiatry 191:106-112.
Vulnerable populations
http://climatewisconsin.org/
Questions and comments?
Clarity? Doubts?
Pedagogy?Curriculum?
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Where to find mainstream climate science
Information resources based on peer-reviewed literature
National Research CouncilIndividual researchers with sustained publication records
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Skeptical Science
http://www.skepticalscience.com/
Some potential teaching resources
Citizen-science databases
http://www.facingthefuture.org/ServiceLearning/ClimateChangeActionProjects/GoodNeighborPledge/tabid/334/Default.aspx
http://www.nwf.org/Global-Warming/School-Solutions/Eco-Schools-USA/Become-an-Eco-School/Cool-School-Challenge.aspx