global wind market supply side update heading in this ......market-based mechanisms dominate the...
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Global Wind Market Supply Side Update –
Impact of market consolidation
on global supply chain
Feng Zhao, Strategy Director, GWEC
Herning, 01 October 2019
Rue d’Arlon 80
1040 Brussels,Belgium
T. +32 2 213 18 97
www.gwec.net
About GWEC
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GWEC is a trade association that acts as the authoritative voice for the wind energy sector
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GWEC Taskforces
Focus on China,
India Taiwan,
Japan, Korea, US,
Vietnam
Focus on Brazil,
Mexico,
Argentina,
Colombia
Focus on Vietnam,
Philippines,
Thailand,
Indonesia
Just launched in
May 2019
Focus on South
Africa, East Africa
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GWEC Events
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Appendix
GWEC I Supply Side Data 2018 I 35
GWEC Market Intelligence
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C0 Members
C1, C2, and C3 Members
Associations
GWEC Membership
Rue d’Arlon 80
1040 Brussels,Belgium
T. +32 2 213 18 97
www.gwec.net
Consolidation in global wind industry
Consolidation (horizontal integration) in wind industry, 2001-2019
Source: GWEC Market Intelligence, September 2019
2017
SGRE merger came into legal effect and AdwenDiscontinued
Enercon took overDutch Lagerwey
2019
SGRE in talks to acquire selected services and onshoreassets in Europe
from Senvion
Key brands involved 2014-2019
Tier 2 and 3 turbine OEMs suffered globally, 2009-2019
Source: GWEC Market Intelligence, September 2019
Chinese OEMs falling off pyramid
Rue d’Arlon 80
1040 Brussels,Belgium
T. +32 2 213 18 97
www.gwec.net
Impact of market consolidation
on global supply chain
Source: GWEC Market Intelligence
Recent examples of negative impact of market consolidation on
key component suppliers
Main gearbox Power converter Turbine controller
Rue d’Arlon 80
1040 Brussels,Belgium
T. +32 2 213 18 97
www.gwec.net
Is the consolidation going to continue?
Source: GWEC Intelligence, National sources
Support scheme and capacity allocation mechanismStatus Jan 2019
Market-based mechanisms dominate the global wind market
6
19
153
3
2016 2017 2018
18
9
2019e
~20
• Technology-specific auctions and tenders (“Wind only”) dominate to allocate onshore
and offshore capacity
• Several markets have or plan to move to neutral or joint technology auctions to increase
competition and reduce cost even further
• Subsidy-free onshore and offshore wind is already in the horizon
Offshore Onshore
Auction capacity for windMW, capacity captures by wind during auctions
* Average turbine size
Source: GWEC Market Intelligence, June 2019
Innovation and volume are key for competition, hard for tier 2&3 turbine OEMs to follow
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
1995 20102000 20202005 2015 2025
3MW
2MW
Year
Rotor size (m)
0.75-1MW
1.5MW
4MW
5MW
Power (MW)
Turbine sizes and power rating to increaseOnshore wind turbine size development*
Rotor sizes and power rating to increaseCommercial offshore wind turbine development
* Top 3 western – Vestas, GE Renewable and SGRE
Top 3 Chinese – Goldwind, Envision and Mingyang
Source: GWEC Market Intelligence, April 2019
Wind industry is getting maturing and consolidation will continue
51%44% 30%
17%
21% 27%
32%35% 43%
20152013 2018
37.5GW 62.9GW 50.6GW
Top 3 western* Top 3 Chinese OEMs Other
Market shares of top 3 western and top 3 Chinese OEMs show market dominance and consolidation (per cent)
Top 15 Turbine suppliers in annual global market 2018
Top 15 turbine OEMs – accounted for 93.2% global market share in 2019,
which was 82.3% in 2015.
Rue d’Arlon 80
1040 Brussels,Belgium
T. +32 2 213 18 97
www.gwec.net
Then, what is your strategies as a supplier?
Strategies by key component suppliers
• Looking for partnership with low cost suppliers ( technologies vs. volume)
• Capitalizing the opportunities in service market incl. retrofit market
• Providing the value-added solutions in innovation, modulization
• Building the new relationship with tier one turbine OEMs
• What is your strategies as a supplier?
Rue d’Arlon 80
1040 Brussels,Belgium
T. +32 2 213 18 97
www.gwec.net
Feng ZhaoStrategy DirectorGlobal Wind Energy Council
Copenhagen, Denmark
+45 3113 5677
Thank you