global yield gap atlas an agronomic database with local ...€¦ · can yield gap analysis be used...
TRANSCRIPT
Global Yield Gap Atlas – an agronomic
database with local and global relevance
Martin van Ittersum – Plant Production Systems group
Questions of this symposium
Should and could agricultural production be increased at the global scale?
Where should agricultural productivity be increased?
What are the existing limiting factors for increasing agricultural production?
Which intensification pathways could and should be adopted?
These questions require agronomic rigour!
2
3
FAO projection: +60% demand (2007-2050)
Tilman et al.: +100-110% crop yields
Tilman et al., 2011 (PNAS)
5
Five reasons why +60-110% by 2050 must be revisited
FAO projection expressed in monetary value
Baseline (2005-2010) is 10 years old
Projections on drivers of demand (population and economic growth) need continuous update
Demand increases => production increases?
Projections are for the globe, but with huge regional differences
See also: Hunter et al., 2017. Bioscience.
Population increase
6
Continent 2015 2050 2100
World 7.4 9.7 11.2
Asia 4.4 5.3 4.9
Africa 1.2 2.5 4.4
Sub-Saharan Africa 1.0 2.1 3.9
North America 0.4 0.4 0.5
Latin America 0.6 0.8 0.7
Europe 0.7 0.7 0.7
Oceania 0.04 0.06 0.07
United Nations, 2017
Meaning of increased global demand is region-specific!
Two extremes:
Sub-Saharan Africa’s demand will rise fastest because of population growth and dietary change => tripling production
Europe can (should?) play a leading role in developing circular food systems
Questions of this symposium
Should and could agricultural production be increased at the global scale?
Where should agricultural productivity be increased?
What are the existing limiting factors for increasing agricultural production?
Which intensification pathways could and should be adopted?
These questions require agronomic rigour!
8
Motivation to start Global Yield Gap Atlas
1. Estimates of extra crop production potential in existing farmland and with available water resources
2. Support to prioritize investment in agricultural research and development and monitor impact
3. Foundation for narrowing yield gaps, estimate nutrient and water requirements, and for studies on climate change, land use, and environmental footprint
4. Platform to integrate biophysical and socio-economic factors
5. To develop a global database with agronomic rigour!
Global Yield Gap Atlas
Major food crops in the world
Global protocol with local application
Local data and evaluation
Strong agronomic foundation
Co-financed by Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation
www.yieldgap.org
With University of Nebraska, ICRISAT, AfricaRice, CIMMYT and many national partners
62 countries, major food crops, accounting for 70, 84, 45% of rice, maize, and wheat
Yield potential, farm yield, and yield gaps
Modified from: van Ittersum and Rabbinge, Field Crops Research (1997)
* Reaching 75-85% of yield potential is a reasonable target for farmers with access to inputs, markets, and extension services. * Further yield increase is not cost-effective and/or environmentally sound.
Cro
p g
rain
yie
ld (
t/h
a/ye
ar)
Yield Potential Farm yield
Yield gap*
Determined by:
Radiation
Temperature
[CO2]
Cultivar
Rainfall & soil (in rainfed crops)
Limited by:
Poor Fertility
Poor management
Insects, weeds diseases
Global Yield Gap Atlas (www.yieldgap.org)Global Yield Gap Atlas (www.yieldgap.org)
Broad usage in 2017 : 30,000 users of website; 230,000 page-views; 4,500 downloads
Sector Downloads
NGO’s/Foundations 333
Industry 235
Academia 2089
Government 452
Media 12
Individual (producer, consultant, extension)
2000
www.yieldgap.orgSchils et al., 2018
14www.yieldgap.org
www.yieldgap.org
Questions of this symposium
Should and could agricultural production be increased at the global scale?
Where should agricultural productivity be increased?
What are the existing limiting factors for increasing agricultural production?
Which intensification pathways could and should be adopted?
These questions require agronomic rigour!
16
Contribute to food security analysis
17
Van Ittersum et al., 2016. PNAS
Growth in population and cereal demand - 2050
A factor 3.4 increase!
Van Ittersum et al., 2016 (PNAS)
www.yieldgap.org
Can SSA feed itself? - cereals
Van Ittersum et al., 2016. PNAS
Required trend change maize yields
Questions of this symposium
Should and could agricultural production be increased at the global scale?
Where should agricultural productivity be increased?
What are the existing limiting factors for increasing agricultural production?
Which intensification pathways could and should be adopted?
These questions require agronomic rigour!
22
Actual and potential water productivity – rainfed maize
23
www.yieldgap.org
Water productivity gaps (rainfed conditions)
Water or non-water limiting factors?
25Rattalino Edreira, Guilpart, Sadras, Cassman, Van Ittersum, Schils, Grassini,Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, 2018
Estimating nutrient requirements - maize
50% Yw80% Yw
Ten Berge, De Vries, Van Loon, Hijbeek, Rattallino
Edreira and Van Ittersum, 2018 (In review)
www.yieldgap.org
Questions of this symposium
Should and could agricultural production be increased at the global scale?
Where should agricultural productivity be increased?
What are the existing limiting factors for increasing agricultural production?
Which intensification pathways could and should be adopted?
These questions require agronomic rigour!
27
Win
ter
wh
eat
yie
ld (
ton
ha-1
)
Crop inputs (x)
YHFResourceyield gap
YTEx Efficiencyyield gap
Actual yield
Ya
Yp Technologyyield gap
Decomposing yield gaps
Silva et al., 2017. Eur. J. of Agron.
Three contrasting case studies
Mixed farming in
Southern Ethiopia
Rice farming in Central
Luzon, Philippines
Arable farming in
the Netherlands
Sample: 200 farms
Year: 2012
Farm size: < 2.5 ha
Crops: Maize in Hawassa
and wheat in Asella
Sample: 100 farms
Year: 1966-2012
Farm size: 1.7 ha
Crops: Rice (wet season
and dry season)
Sample: 175 farms
Year: 2008 - 2012
Farm size: ~60 ha
Crops: Wheat, barley,
potato, sugar beet, onion
Silva et al., in preparation
The Netherlands
Small yield gap due to efficiency
and technology gaps.
Southern Ethiopia
Large yield gap due to efficiency
and technology yield gaps.
Central Luzon, Philippines
Medium yield gap due to efficiency,
resource and technology yield gaps.
Overview of crop yield gaps
Silva et al., 2017. Eur. J. of Agron.
Silva et al., 2017. Ag. Systems
Interventions to narrow yield gap(s)
31
Technical efficiency yield gap
Yield (tons/ha)
• Suboptimal crop management caused by knowledge, skills and information gaps.
• Knowledge and financial constraints, risk issues and information asymmetries
AllocativeYield gap
EconomicYield gap
TechnologyYield gap
• Transaction and transportation costs
• Agricultural innovation system and broader institutional, technological, economic and social factors
Actual yield
Potential yield
Feasible yield
Economic yield
Technical
efficient yield
Yieldgap
Main causes Policies
• Improve extension services• Stimulate knowledge transfer
from best practice to average farmers
• Credit & insurance• Expand agro-dealer networks• Support market information• Land tenure systems• Smart input subsidies
• Investment in rural roads• Policies to decrease
transaction costs
• Investment in applied agricultural research and development programs
Sliva et al., 2017
Van Dijk et al., 2017
© http://www.riennijboer.nl/
Thank you for your attention!
Future harvest
Merci to MAK!IT
GYGA References van Ittersum MK, Cassman KG, Grassini P, Wolf J, Tittonell P, Hochman Z. 2013. Yield gap analysis with local to global relevance – a review. Field
Crops Res. 143:4-17 van Bussel LGJ, Grassini P, Van Wart J, Wolf J, Claessens L, Yang H, Boogaard H, de Groot H, Saito K, Cassman KG, van Ittersum MK, 2015. From field
to atlas: Upscaling of location-specific yield gap estimates. Field Crops Res. 177, 98-108 Van Wart J, Grassini P, Yang HS, Claessens L, Jarvis A, Cassman KG, 2015. Creating long-term weather data from thin air for crop simulation
modelling. Agric. Forest Meteoro. 208, 49-58 Van Wart J, van Bussel LGJ, Wolf J, Licker R, Grassini P, Nelson A, Boogaard H, Gerber J, Mueller ND, Claessens L, Cassman KG, van Ittersum MK.
2013. Reviewing the use of agro-climatic zones to upscale simulated crop yield potential. Field Crops Res. 143, 44-55 Grassini P, van Bussel LGJ, Van Wart J, Wolf J, Claessens L, Yang H, Boogaard H, de Groot H, van Ittersum MK, Cassman KG, 2015. How good is good
enough? Data requirements for reliable crop yield simulations and yield-gap analysis. Field Crops Res. 177, 49-63 J. Wolf, K. Ouattara, I. Supit, 2015. Sowing rules for estimating rainfed yield potential of sorghum and maize in Burkina Faso. Agricultural and Forest
Meteorology, 214, 208-218 van Oort PAJ, Saito K, Tanaka A, Amovin-Assagba E , Van Bussel LGJ , van Wart J, de Groot H , van Ittersum MK, Cassman KG, Wopereis, MCS. 2014.
Assessment of rice self-sufficiency in 2015 in eight African countries. Global Food Security 5, 39-49. Gobett D, Hochman Z, Horan H, Navarro-Garcia J, Grassini P, Cassman KG, 2016. Yield gap analysis of rainfed wheat demonstrates local to global
relevance. Journal of Agric. Sci. (Cambridge) 1-18. Marin F, Martha G, Cassman KG, Grassini P., 2016. Prospects for increasing sugarcane and bioethanol production on existing crop area in Brazil.
BioScience 66, 307-316 Aramburu Merlos F., Monzon JP, Mercau JL, Taboada, M, Andrade, FH, Hall AJ, Jobbagy E, Cassman KG, Grassini P, 2015. Potential for crop
production increase in Argentina through closure of existing yield gaps. Field Crops Res. 184, 145-154. Van Ittersum MK, van Bussel LGJ, Wolf J, Grassini P., et al. 2016. Can Sub-Saharan Africa feed itself? PNAS 113, 14964-14969 van Oort PAJ, Saito K, Dieng I, Grassini P, Cassman KG, van Ittersum MK. 2016. Can yield gap analysis be used to inform R&D prioritisation? Global
Food Security (In Press). Timsina J, Wolf J, Guilpart N, van Bussel LGJ, Grassini P, van Wart J, Hossain A, Rashid H, Islam S, van Ittersum MK (2016) Can Bangladesh produce
enough cereals to meet future demand? Agric Syst (In Press) Espe MB, Cassman KG, Yang H, Guilpart N, Van Wart J, Grassini P, Anders M, Beighley D, Harrell D, Linscombe S, McKenzie K, Mutters R, Wilson T,
Linquist BA (2016) Yield gap analysis of US rice production systems shows opportunities for improvement. Field Crops Res. 196, 276-283. Schils, R., Olesen, J.E., Kersebaum, K.-C., Rijk, B., Oberforster, M., Kalyada, V., Khitrykau, M., Gobin, A., Kirchev, H., Manolova, V., Manolov, I., Trnka,
M., Hlavinka, P., Paluoso, T., Peltonen-Sainio, P., Jauhiainen, L., Lorgeou, J., Marrou, H., Danalatos, N., Archontoulis, S., Fodor, N., Spink, J., Roggero, P.P., Bassu, S., Pulina, A., Seehusen, T., Uhlen, A.K., Żyłowska, K., Nieróbca, A., Kozyra, J., Silva, J.V., Maçãs, B.M., Coutinho, J., Ion, V., Takáč, J., Mínguez, M.I., Eckersten, H., Levy, L., Herrera, J.M., Hiltbrunner, J., Kryvobok, O., Kryvoshein, O., Sylvester-Bradley, R., Kindred, D., Topp, C.F.E., Boogaard, H., de Groot, H., Lesschen, J.P., van Bussel, L., Wolf, J., Zijlstra, M., van Loon, M.P., van Ittersum, M.K., 2018. Cereal yield gaps across Europe. European Journal of Agronomy 101, 109-120.
Rattalino Edreira, J.I., Guilpart, N., Sadras, V., Cassman, K.G., van Ittersum, M.K., Schils, R.L.M., Grassini, P., 2018. Water productivity of rainfedmaize and wheat: A local to global perspective. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology 259, 364-373.
Rattalino Edreira, J.I., Kenneth G Cassman, Zvi Hochman, Martin K van Ittersum, Lenny G.J. van Bussel, Lieven Claessens, Patricio Grassini. Beyond the plot: accelerating innovation in agronomic science. Environmental Research Letters 13, 10.1088/1748-9326/aac092.
References on understanding yield gaps
• Silva, J.V.; Reidsma, P.; Laborte, A.G; van Ittersum, M.K. 2017a. Explaining rice yields and yield gaps in
Central Luzon, Philippines: An application of stochastic frontier analysis and crop modelling. European
Journal of Agronomy, 82 Part B, 223 – 241.
• Silva, J.V.; Reidsma, P.; Velasco, M.L.; Laborte, A.G.; van Ittersum, M.K. 2018. Intensification of rice-based
farming systems in Central Luzon, Philippines: Constraints at field, farm and regional levels. Agricultural
Systems, 165, 55 – 70.
• Silva, J.V.; Reidsma, P.; van Ittersum, M.K. 2017b. Yield gaps in Dutch arable farming: Analysis at crop and
crop rotation level. Agricultural Systems, 158, 78 – 92.
• Silva, J.V.; Baudron, F.; Reidsma, P.; Giller, K.E. Is labour a major determinant of yield gaps in sub-Saharan
Africa? A study for cereal-based production systems in Southern Ethiopia. Under Review, Agricultural
Systems.
• Wang, N., Reidsma, P., Pronk, A.A., de Wit, A.J.W., van Ittersum, M.K., 2018. Can potato add to China's
food self-sufficiency? The scope for increasing potato production in China. European Journal of Agronomy
101, 20-29.