Globalization,Risk & Opportunity in Development,2017

Ghadeer Odeh, MBA

• Global Trends• Global Development Risks• Development Obstacles • Innovation in Risk Mitigation Plan

Trends

• Globalization is the most vital factor for international exchange through trade activity & ideas that influenced wealth disribution,equality means& the spread of market capitalism in the past half century.

• https://youtu.be/khjY5LWF3tg

Trends

Trends

• American elections will slow down the US international supply chain conribution which is estimated 24% of global GDP.&slump down immigration rates. Stocks market will face uncertainty due to new regulations that affect companies & supply chain constraints.

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Trends

Trends:U.S Policy Impact on Globalization

American election will slow down the US international supply chain conribution which is

estimated 24% of global GDPTariffs imposed on imports will Boost US

manufacturing industries to adjust trade balances ,& will significantly disrupt Latin America &Asia trade

relations

US constraints on reforms of NAFTA ,KORUS&TPP can be seen as positive development related to improving

the trade balance deficit &economic prosperity.

Negative impact in the behavioural economics of countries who have trade accords with the U.S

including China,mexico,EU,& Asia Pacific.

The rise of the middle powers & set new alternate trade deals in China & the TPP to offset global supply

gaps.

Slump down sales of MNCs up to 11.5% & relocation affected by dollar appreciation, slowdown in China,&

oil price collapse.

The fourth technology revolution that is blurring the lines between the physical, digital, &biological

spheres. will boost global income level,reduce cost of supply chain&violence

China to serve alternate markets to expand growth & seek reconciliation to maintain its 18% annual

exports to US market

TrendsU.S Policy Impact on Globalization

Global Risks 2017

• Deglobalization of the advanced economies,Economic disparity &global governance failure.

• The rise of geopolitical risks encompassing involuntary migration ,culture shocks& terror attacks.

• climate change &water crises.

• Unprecedented risks from technology revolution including industry decline ,job market deterioration& identity security.

Global Risks

Individual

Lack of knowledge

Consumption behavior biases

Failure to Cope, behavioral biases

Financial constraints

Community

Failure adaption water crises climate change

gap between returns to capital and returns to labor.

Social instabilityUnemployment

Missing market moral hazards

Policy

Uncertainty in economic policy

Lack of Gov collective e actions

Lack of resources, protection, insurance

Lack of international cooperation

Obstacles

Innovation in Country Risk Management

Economy• As a result of Political views shift from globalism to nationalism in advanced

economies, middle power countries will rise &contribute to international GDP & supply chain to adjust trade balance.

• Maintain healthy inflation rates to avoid asset deterioration &prolonged recession impact.

• China have the chance to boost its economy by increasing exports to new markets, Influenced by weak home currency to stimulates exports for local products, simultaneously increase jobs ,reduce unemployment rate, high inflation , & reduce the financing costs that all will lead to economic growth.

• Create countercyclical fiscal policies to promote sustainability &benefit from industrial countries experience in cycling 80% of Gov spending.

• Establish monetary policy in developing countries to control inflation rates away from political variations. Boost bond investment by central banks &promote flexible currency peg policy.

• Establish implicit exchange rate boundaries to maintain boundaries below or above benchmark.

• Create macroeconomic buffers to lessen oil price shocks& embark on oil manufacturing industries & supply unserved markets.

Innovation in Country Risk Management

Innovation in Country Risk Management

• Dani Rodrik, Harvard economist, proposed a theory "the globalization trilemma" in which among “democracy, national sovereignty and global economic integration, only two could be simultaneously compatible. Recent political events in Europe and the U.S. suggest democracy and national sovereignty would be the priorities moving forwards”.

Innovation in Country Risk Management

Innovation in Country Risk Management

• Migration

• Improve resilience as a way to embrace opportunities &calculated risks to avoid stagnation &impoverishment among migrants.

• Increase polarization as the third most important trend for the next 10 years.• Provide collective actions to the UN efforts to provide humanitarian relief and

protect civilians in Syria.• Harness Cooperation between Gov&private sector to ensure business

continuity.• Establish innovative financing Ad Hoc government fund to compensate losses. • Establish Insurance policies linked to securities that aim to transfer risks.

Innovation in Country Risk Management

Innovation in Country Risk Management

• Climate change• Highlight government contributions toward UN Paris vital agenda to mitigate

climate change adverse effects. • Provide empirical evidence about global transition to a low-carbon economy &

clean energy.• Build cost-effective risk mitigation plan through favorable taxes, projects or

insurance programs to manage financial risks.• Create collaborative partnerships between Gov&private sector to mitigate risks

reshape financial assistance to enhance effectiveness of prevention protetion,response,recovery, & prioritize investment in mitigation ,risk transfer &prioritization.

• Highlight social &economic system contributions to Create proactive risk management plan to predict natural disasters & prevent severe damages.

• Governments urged to Build risk management plan based on knowledge,insurace,coping & protection by considering institutional capacity of the country & priorities.

Innovation in Country Risk Management

Innovation in Country Risk Management

• Technology• Technology will harness sharing economy consequently,, foster prosperity,

equality & peace however, there is urgent need to protect cloud platforms.• The Fourth Industrial Revolution will also profoundly impact the nature of

national and international security& nature of conflict. • Technology has always created jobs &destroyed them, but there is evidence

that the technological job creation is sputtering. However,47% of US jobs were at high risk.

• Technology is expected shift income distribution from labor to capital through innovative trade platforms.

• Improve government policy transparency ,efficiency through public engagement & decentralization of power.

Innovation in Country Risk Management

Most competitive countries inhazards policy framework

USANational response frame work.

National preparedness goal

Singapore Whole Gov integrated risk management

Netherlands National safety security strategy

JapanBasic disaster management

system

Canada Emergency management framework

UK Civil contingencies act

The Most Competitive Countries in Hazard Policy Framework