globec nwa program: phase 4b synthesis
DESCRIPTION
GLOBEC NWA Program: Phase 4B Synthesis. FVCOM-NPZD- Copepod Dynamics. Calanus Diapause. Larval Fish Dynamics. Basin-scale Calanus IBM. Data/model synthesis working group Global-Basin-Regional interactions. Modeling copepod population dynamics in the GB-GOM region - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
GLOBEC NWA Program: Phase 4B Synthesis
FVCOM-NPZD-Copepod Dynamics
Calanus Diapause
Larval Fish Dynamics
Basin-scale Calanus IBM
Data/model synthesis working groupGlobal-Basin-Regional interactions
Modeling copepod population dynamics in the GB-GOM region
Cabell Davis, Qiao Hu, Rubao Ji
Biomass at Age
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18
x 104
2.5
3
3.5
4
4.5
5
5.5
6
Spawning Stock Biomass
Num
ber
of
Recr
uit
s
Stock ̶� ̶Recruitment
Georges Bank Haddock
GLOBEC Georges BankGLOBEC Georges Bank
Objective:Objective:
To understand the To understand the processes controlling processes controlling recruitment of cod and recruitment of cod and haddock and their haddock and their dominant prey species.dominant prey species.
Georges Bank cod/haddock spawning and larval and juvenile drift (Lough and Manning, 2001)
Pratt
Haddock larva
The copepods:
Calanus PseudocalanusOithona
1 mm
Centropages
Hopcroft
Hopcroft
Hopcroft
Davis
Temp & FoodDependent:
FertilityMoltingGrowthMortality
-1
0
1
2
3
Me
an
No
rma
lize
d D
evi
atio
n
1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000
Metridia
Temora
Oithona
Centropages
Pseudocalanus
Calanus
Mean
Copepods vs Year
1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002-1.5
-1.0
-0.5
0.0
0.5
500
450
400
350
300
250
Salinity Anomaly
-1.5
-1
-0.5
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
Ch
loro
phy
ll
-0.015 -0.01 -0.005 0 0.005 0.01 0.015
Salinity
y = -36.961x + 0.000 r 2 = 0.180
June
May
Apr
Mar
Feb
Jan
Broad-scale Phytoplankton vs Salinity
-1.00 -0.60 -0.20 0.20 0.60 1.00
Normalized Residual Prey
-0.04
-0.03
-0.02
-0.01
0.00
0.01
0.02
Resid
ual G
rowt
h (
d-1
)
Cod & Haddock Growth vs Copepods
Cod & Haddock Mortality vs Year
Salinity Anomaly
-1.2 -1.0 -0.8 -0.6 -0.4 -0.2 0.0E
arly
Lar
val M
ort
alit
y
0
2
4
6
8
10
Cod & Haddock Mortality vs Salinity Anomaly
Results (cont): Broadscale Surveys
1990s Freshening1990s Freshening
Freshwater in early Freshwater in early 1990s traced to Arctic1990s traced to Arctic– AO+ winds strengthen AO+ winds strengthen
Beaufort GyreBeaufort Gyre– AOAO-- winds release winds release
freshwaterfreshwater
Greene and Pershing, 2007 Science
Present Work, Synthesis: Models
Regional-scale Model Basin-scale Model
FVCOM Integrated Model System
Concentration-based Food-web and
Copepod Species Models
NPZD Copepods Fish larvae
Nutrients
Detritus
Phytoplankton
Micro-Zooplankton
CBM CBM IBM
Larval Fish Modeling, Lough, Werner Larval Fish Modeling, Lough, Werner et al.et al.
Lough et al. 2005. Fish. Oceanogr. 14:4, 241-262
Physics Nutrients andPhytoplankton
CopepodSpecies
Input data
FVCOM model
ModelOutput
3D Distributions of T, S, u, v, w, N, P, μZ, D, and copepod species over the period 1995-1999
S1: Uptake (P on N)S1=μmaxf(I)f(N)f(T)P
S2: Grazing (Z on P)S2=gmaxf(P)f(T)Z
S3: Loss of PS3=λ P
S4: Remineral. of DS4=εD
S5: Loss of ZS5=mZ2
N
P
µZ
D
S1
S2
S3
S4
βS2
γS5
S5
(1-α-β)S2
αS2
Eggs
Nauplii
Copepodids
Adults
Copepod Population
Lower Food Web
S1: Uptake (P on N)S1=μmaxf(I)f(N)f(T)P
S2: Grazing (Z on P)S2=gmaxf(P)f(T)Z
S3: Loss of PS3=λ P
S4: Remineral. of DS4=εD
S5: Loss of ZS5=mZ2
N
P
Z
D
S1
S2
S3
S4
βS2
γS5
S5
(1-α-β)S2
αS2
Eggs
Nauplii
Copepodids
Adults
Copepod Population 4-Stage (ENCA)
Lower Food Web
Numerical Diffusion & Mean-Age Model
100
0
100
0
200 age-stage classes, 13-stages
E N C A
Time (d) 700
100
0
4-stage, ENCA
E N C A
Nu
mb
er
of
ind
ivid
uals
200 age-stage classes, 13-stages
moltstage
stagestagestage
NN
NAA
)1(
(Hu et al., submitted)
Time t Time t+1
Nauplii
Pseudocalanus, 1995Eggs
Copepodites
Adults
j f m a m j j a s o n d j0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
4x 10
4
j f m a m j j a s o n d0
1
2
3
4x 10
4
Pseudocalanus adults MARMAP data, (McGillicuddy et al. 1998)
J F M A M J J A S O N D
0
104
Pseudocalanus C1-C6 Abundance (#/m3)
0-D Mean-age Model
1. How do we parameterize mortality? Whole populations: Inverse methods: Ohman, Nisbit & Wood; McGillicuddy adjoint; Hall ‘64
Patchy Predators: Predation by planktivorous fish, schooling herring/mackerel Small scale patchiness, ctenophores
Gelatinous predation, sparse data
The recruitment problem, exponential losses,
106
0
Cohort Age
Abu
ndan
ce
10100
106
0
Cohort Age
Abu
ndan
ce
10100
0.0500 vs 0.0475Chronic vs Episodic Mortality
Some questions
More Questions:
2. One-way versus two-way coupling? “NPZD” structured mesozooplankton IBM or CBM? How detailed? i.e., what details matter? Behaviors? DVM, food-seeking, mate-seeking
3. What is food? Chlorophyll, C, N Food quality? Nutrition: protein, lipid, carbs Encounter rate, turbulence, pred/prey swimming
End