gmt pathways eionet workshop berne september 2015 mapping europe’s future – understanding the...

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GMT Pathways EIONET Workshop Berne September 2015

Mapping Europe’s Future – understanding the impacts of GMTs at the national level.

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How to read these impact pathways

• The ‘pathways’ provide a simple, visual overview of the Global Megatrends described in EEA SOER 2015• They do so by creating a structured picture of the key drivers, trends

and implications referred to in the SOER 2015 narrative• The pathways are not an accurate representation of the real world,

but an illustration of the megatrends described by the EEA• These are intended as ‘storylines’ and do not attempt to illustrate

direct, causal linkages between factors• The aim is to make the megatrends accessible and provide a basis for

discussion of possible national scale implications and priorities

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How to read these impact pathways

The shading of the boxes represents the following logic, although a degree of judgement was needed given the way they are written:

• Blue = key drivers (with reference to other GMTs if these are listed as drivers)• Light brown/beige = driving trends / higher-level trends• Dark brown = ‘collecting’ trends – trends that are the outcomes of the light-brown ones• Yellow = impact trends – a stepping point to the impacts• Red = impacts / implications (with reference to other GMTs if these manifest as impacts)• Purple = wild-cards – basically a shock / total change that may happen due to the GMT,

or a major uncertainty, in the case of GMT8 (ecosystems) this relates to crossing planetary boundaries

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Skills for labour market

Economic development

Health care

Migration from developing

countries to EU

Average age

Changes in population dynamics

Distribution of populations

(urban/rural)

Increased ethnic/cultural

diversity

Population growth

Population ageing

Replacement fertility rate

Economic productivity

Increased emissions and

waste (GMT 10)

Challenges for democratic

process

Change in ratio of working age population to

elderly dependents

Drivers Trends Impacts

GMT1: Diverging global population trends

Governance

Fertility/mortality rates

EducationLife expectancy

Climate change

Childhood mortality

Increased environmental

pressures (GMT 8)

Shifts in economic power (GMT 6)

Living standards

Enhanced competition for non-renewable

resources (GMT 7)

Employment opportunities

Increased threats to social

security

Pressure on health and

welfare systems

Increase in public debt

Expanded workforce size

Fiscal pressures

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Changes in agriculture sector

Industrialisation

Population growth (GMT 1)

Use of pesticides and fertilisers

Selective breeding

Public sector urban

investment bias

Mechanisation of agriculture

Urban planning and policies

Technological advancement

Environmental pressures

(GMT8 and 10)

Urbanisation

Enhanced food production

Surplus labour in agriculture

Increased economic growth/ productivity

(GMT 6)

Increased pool of labour

Shift to industrialised/ service based

economies

Agglomeration of economies

Greater urban density

(congestion)


GMT2: Towards a more urban world

Rural economic decline

Higher cost of living/property

Decentralised energy production

Resource prices (GMT 7)

Pressure on urban

infrastructure

Expansion of Megacities

Degradation of living

standards

Enhanced innovation

Increased inequality: income/education/health

(rural/urban)Uncertain changes in

economic opportunities / living standards

Increased ecological footprint

GHG emissions Uncertain changes in resource efficiency

Exposure to pollution

Slums

Risk of infectious diseases /

pandemics (GMT3)

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Changes in agriculture sector

Industrialisation

Population growth (GMT 1)

Use of pesticides and fertilisers

Selective breeding

Public sector urban

investment bias

Mechanisation of agriculture

Urban planning and policies

Technological advancement


(GMT8 and 10)

Urbanisation (quantitative)

Enhanced food production

Surplus labour in agriculture

Increased economic growth/ productivity

Increased pool of labour

Shift to industrialised/ service based

economies

Greater urban density (congestion)


GMT2: Towards a more urban world

Rural economic decline

Higher cost of living/property

Decentralised energy production

Resource prices (GMT 7)

Pressure on urban

infrastructure

Expansion of Megacities

Degradation of living standards

Enhanced innovation

Increased ecological footprint

GHG emissions

Exposure to pollution

Slums

Risk of infectious diseases / pandemics (GMT3)

Climate change

Economic development

Urbanisation (qualitative)

Technological innovation

(GMT 4)

Resource scarcity (GMT7)

Environmental awareness

Consumption patterns

Critical mass of knowledge and skills for green

leapfrog

Renewal / renaissance of cities

Development of public transport, new functions of old buildings and public

areas, energetical development of infrastructures etc.

Low ecological footprint cities

Balcony-, guerilla-, schoolyard-, vertical-, community-, roof-gardening are more

and more popular

Community planning, complex solutions,

innovative implementations

Proposed amendment by Miklós Martin, HU September 2015

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Economic growth

Changes to agriculture systems

Environmental Pollution (GMT10)

Global trade and travel

Human health

Increased obesity

Prevalence of communicable

diseases

Increased risk of pandemics

Governance systems and structures

Health care costs

Increased health

inequalities

Social cohesion and wellbeing Mortality rates

Challenge to sustainable

development

Health /social / environmental

policies

Social unrest


GMT3: Changing disease burdens and risks of

pandemics

vUrbanisation

(GMT2) Improved health services

Intensive livestock

Life expectancy inequalities

Drinking water quality / quantity

Diet and nutrition Improved living

standards

Global chemical production

Exposure to chemicals

Exposure to pesticides

…Europe faces uncertain but increased exposure to possible future pandemics

Climate change (GMT 9)

Extreme weather events

Technological innovation (GMT 4)

Non-communicable diseases

Prevalence of mental

disordersEconomic

productivity

Resistance to antibiotics

Education

Availability of medicines

Multiple burden of disease

Financial losses

Pressure on health care systems

Social change and lifestyle shifts

Outdoor air pollution

Medical technologies

Shifts in disease vectors Changing disease

vectors effecting EU

Decline in effectiveness of

antibiotics

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…a post-human future?…

Research funding and

policy support

Economic growth (GMT5)

Urbanisation (GMT2)

Research & development

Market expansion

New markets

Education

Competition for resources (GMT7)

Innovation and new technologies

Increase in educated workforce

Number of research centres

Scientific collaborations

Nanomaterials in consumer products

Efficiency of resource extraction

and use

Development of nanotechnology

Increased efficiency in agriculture

Biotechnology

Developments in ICT

Use of new tech in healthcare


GMT4: Accelerating technological change

Ecosystem degradation

(GMT8)

Climate change (GMT 9)

Environmental pollution (GMT 10)

Reduced costs of resource extraction

Increased data storage capacities

Evolution of 3D printing

Expansion of robotics industry

Potential transformation of manufacturing

industries

New methods for biofuel production

Increased volume of ICT equipment

waste

Reduced labour demand /

unemployment New social

risks

Need for new policy /

governance

…the risks and impacts of emerging technologies on

the environment and society are difficult to

predict…

Globalisation of research

Increased competition for

critical raw materials Potential transformation

of energy systems (low carbon)

Technology

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(GMT4)

Financial crisis

Resource scarcity (GMT7)

Geopolitical stability

Productivity

Socio-political developments

Deceleration

Food and energy price

Economic growth

Reduced efficiency

Little innovation

Global GDP

GDP development in

EU countries

Recession

Demand for resources (GMT7) Most significant

decline in advanced economies

Employment levels

Changes innational policies

Living standards

Divergence of poverty gap

Inequality of income


GMT5: Continued economic growth?

Rebalancing of economic

power

Emissions of pollutants (GMT10)

Revenue for and pressure on

public services

Workforce education and

skills

Structure of economies: trade

openness, tax, R&D spending etc.

Structural reforms

Changing consumption

patterns

Relationship with environmental

pressure

Eco-economic decoupling

Uncertainty of revenue for

health, education, policing,

transport etc

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Education

Population trends (GMT1)


Market integration

Resource scarcity

Economic structure

Wage costs

Trade agreementsTrade and market

liberalisation

Workforce skills

Shifting of economic power

Growth in export volumes

Expanding middle class

Trade openness

Income growth

Increase in productivity

Outsourcing of employment


New Economic Unions


EU’s Competitiveness

(both +/-)

Free trade areas

Resilient world economy, but systemic risks

Diversified trade relationships


GMT6: An increasingly multipolar world

Economic policies


Ethnic conflicts

Demographic changes (migration/ageing)

(GMT1 and 2)

Democratic processes

Geopolitical stability

Economic integration

Foreign Direct Investment

Diffusion of technologies / skills /

institutions / expertise

Cheap imports for EU?

More resource efficient EU economy: service

based

EU as a tourist destination

Reduced EU share in global manufacturing

and agriculture markets

New export markets for EU

products

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Population growth (GMT1)

Economic growth (GMT5)


(GMT4)

Emerging economies

(GMT5)

Expanding middle class

Alternative energy sources

Living standards

Resource demand

Resource extraction

Increased access to fossil fuels

Commodity price (indefinite

projections)


(decoupling)

Pressure on economic outputs

Growing competition

Reduced security of

supply for EU

Erosion of EU’s value chain

Environmental risks

Shale gas and oil production

Reduced purchasing power of EU businesses and consumers

Air /water pollution (GMT10)


GMT7: Intensified global competition for resources


…estimating the future demand for specific

resources is subject to significant uncertainties…

Efficiency

Price incentives

Environmental agreements

Global energy market

Need to locate new reserves /

resources

Opportunities for EU’s

specialisation in efficiency

Climate change precursors

Increased waste generation

Monopolistic production of

critical raw materials

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Economic Growth (GMT5)

Population Growth (GMT1)


Climate Change (GMT9)

Demand for food

Exploitation of fish stocks

Agricultural intensification

Demand for fish farms

Land-grabbing / competition

Demand for bio-energy

Meat consumption

Loss/damage to global ecosystem

services

Deforestation

Run-off / pollution

Loss of natural areas

Global land use change

Freshwater scarcity Reduced ability

to draw on global natural

resources

Unequal distribution of

impacts

Conflict and instability

Migration to EU

Increased price of food /

commodities

Loss of natural CC adaptation

Loss of natural CC mitigation

Greater need for EU

response / costs

Direct pressure on EU

ecosystems

… ecosystem tipping points passed –

unpredictable but widespread impacts


GMT8: Growing pressure on ecosystems

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Deforestation

Industrial processes

Agriculture

Waste management

Anthropogenic GHG emissions

Changes in the global climate

system

El Nino effect

Increased frequency of

droughts/floods

Mean surface temperature

Ice and snow cover

Warming of oceans

Sea level rise

Extreme weather events

Increase in permafrost

temperatureInfrastructure

damageIncrease in CH4

release


GMT9: Increasingly severe consequences of climate

change

Population growth (GMT2)

Variations in precipitation

Ocean circulation (weakened Gulf

stream)

Changes in ecosystems (GMT8)

Decline in terrestrial and marine species (biodiversity)

Increased alien species in EU

Increase in forest fires

Reduced groundwater

resources

Disruption of economic systems

Food production /

security

Displacement of people National

security

Impacts on human health

(GMT3)

Economic activity

Energy production / consumption

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Energy production / consumption

Population Growth (GMT1)

Automobile and chemicals

industries

Urbanisation (GMT2)

Fossil fuel combustion

Chemical production

Chemical release into

environment

Agricultural intensification


Increase in the use of fertilisers

Global environmental pollution load

Atmospheric precursors

Greenhouse gas emissions

Introduction of new substances

Direct pressure on EU’s

biodiversity (vegetation)

Human health

Acidification of terrestrial and

freshwater ecosystems

Persistent bio accumulative and

toxic substance pollution

Increasingly complex chemical

pollution

Forest growth/crop yields (plant productivity)

Soil pollution


GMT10: Increasing environmental pollution

Particulate matter

Increased acidification of terrestrial and

freshwater ecosystems

Increased eutrophication

Alteration of nutrient cycles

Biofuel production

Increased cost of wastewater treatment system maintenance

Increased nutrient discharge

Changes in species

composition Loss in fish

stocks/other aquatic life

Transboundary air pollution

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Corporate lobby

Globalisation (GMT5)

Domestic political interests

Information and communication

technologies (GMT4)

Market failures

Transboundary water/air pollution

Climate change mitigation

Promotion of successful/efficient

policymaking

Trust building

Short-term policy making

Management of common property

resources

Change in global governance

Resourcing of intergovernmental

organisations

Increased influence of

NGOs

Implementation of environmental

standards

Increase in international agreements

Complexity of negotiations and lack of consensus

Reduced transparency

Reduced accountability

Increasing role for cities in

environmental governance

Increased amount of legislation/standards

Change of roles for NGO’s

Inclusiveness

Rise of business and civil society in governance

Lack of coordination


GMT11: Diversifying approaches to governance

Data collection/storage

/sharing Environmental awareness

Long terms environmental

targets

Supranational blocs (EU)

Growth of certification and

auditing networksOver-

representation of certain interest

groups

Risks to democratic

process (due to non-state actors)

gmt pathways eionet workshop berne september 2015 mapping europe’s future – understanding the...

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