go, go, go said the bird: human kind cannot bear very much reality t.s. eliot (in burnt norten, four...
TRANSCRIPT
Go, go, go said the bird: human kindCannot bear very much reality
T.S. Eliot (in Burnt Norten, Four Quartets)
... the problem is “not seeing what we don’t want to see” (“willful blindness”)
John Casti, X-Events, 2012
Hans-Peter PlagHans-Peter PlagClimate Change and Sea Level Rise Initiative,Climate Change and Sea Level Rise Initiative,
Old Dominion University, Norfolk, VAOld Dominion University, Norfolk, [email protected]@odu.edu
Climate Change and Sea Level Rise:Climate Change and Sea Level Rise:Communicating the Science about a Global ChallengeCommunicating the Science about a Global Challenge
Climate Change and Sea Level Rise: The ObservationsExpected Future Changes An Unparalled Challenge for Humanity? Global Change: The AnthropoceneCommunicating the ChallengeResponding to the Challenge
Climate Change and Sea Level Rise: The Observations
IPCC, 2013
Climate Change and Sea Level Rise: The Observations
Climate Change and Sea Level Rise: The Observations
QuickTime™ and a decompressor
are needed to see this picture.
Temperature, 1900-2012, 5 Year averages of anomly compared to 1900-1905
Climate Change and Sea Level Rise: The Observations
Climate Change and Sea Level Rise: The Observations
Greenland
Climate Change and Sea Level Rise: The Observations
Climate Change and Sea Level Rise: The Observations
Climate Change and Sea Level Rise: The Observations
Marcott et al., 2013
20th century: - global temperature: 0.7 C- global sea level: 0.2 m
“Normal” variability: - global temperature: 0.2 C/century (-0.5 to 0.5) - global sea level: 1.5 m/century (-6.0 to 6.0)
Climate Change and Sea Level Rise: The Observations
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Climate change is happening: - now, for certain - everywhere, globally - rapidly - expected to get worse
Climate Change and Sea Level Rise: The Observations
Sea level change is happening: - now, certain - everywhere, globally - rapidly - expected to get worse
Expected Future Changes
Expected Future Changes
Expected Future Changes
Expected Future Changes
}IPCCt
Expected Future Changes
Marcott et al., 2013
1 C
2
3
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}IPCC Assessment: Very Likely
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Expected Future Changes
Modified from Church et al. (2010)
Example Hampton RoadsToday’s rate: 5 mm per year(about 1.5 feet in 100 years)
Soon could get as high as:20 mm per year (about 6 feet in 100 years)
Expected Future Changes
“..., almost all of the cities to be studied in 19.20.21 are cities that border the oceans of the world, and will be affected by
the rise in sea levels
19.20.21.org:19 cities in the world with20 million people in the21st century
An Unparalleled Challenge for Humanity?
USAAustralia
Lovelock (and many others): - Planet is on a run-away path; could reach a warm state (5 C warmer) already in 2050
Lovelock:- Carrying capacity of the planet would be reduced to 1 Billion- Recommendation: look for the lifeboats
Germany China
An Unparalleled Challenge for Humanity?
Are we on Titanic after it hit the iceberg?
There were lifeboats for about half of the passengers, but only 1/3 made it into them - I hope, we can do better.
Captain E.J. Smith: “I cannot imagine any condition which would cause a ship to founder. Modern shipbuilding has gone beyond that.”
An Unparalleled Challenge for Humanity?
11.1%Genghis Khan
An Unparalleled Challenge for Humanity?
1750 2000
We are Reengineering the Planet ...
Population GDP CO2 CH4
ExtinctionCars Deforestation
Temperature Floods
Bill McKibben: Earth becomes Eaarth ...
Global Change: The Anthropocene
We are Reengineering the Planet ...Global Change: The Anthropocene
We have moved from to back seats of the bus into the driver seat ...
“Has human activity over the past two centuries pushed the Earth out of the Holocene and into the Anthropocene?”
James Syvitski, 2012.
The Anthropocene: A transition to a new epoch? - a slowly hitting asteroid - a planetary accident - an extinction-class event
Plag, 2013
Global Change: The Anthropocene
Earth is on the Edge ?
Humanity as a global species is on
the edge
“Safe operating space for humanity”
Rockstroem et al., 2009
We don’t know where the edges are, but we keep running faster and faster ...
(On The Edge @ RunningInFog)
Communicating the Challenge
Small Steps no longer make much sense ...
We need a fundamental change of how we are in the world ...
Communicating the Challenge
The planet is on a path unknown to humanity ...
What Could this Fundamental Change be?
Griggs et al., 2013
Millennium Development Goals (2005-2015): Mostly not reachedSustainable Development Goals (2015-2025): Proposed, look very good ...
SDGs:1 Thriving lives and livelihoods2 Sustainable food security3 Secure sustainable water4 Universal clean energy5 Healthy and productive ecosystems6 Governance for sustainable societies
Responding to the Challenge
Griggs et al., 2013
Griggs et al., 2013: Sustainable Development:“Development that meets the needs of the presence while safeguarding Earth’s life-support system, on which the welfare of current and future generation depends”
Plag et al., 2013
Economy is the link between humanity and Earth’s life support system
Responding to the Challenge
Economy for humanity:“An economy that meets our needs while safeguarding Earth’s life-support system, on which the welfare of current and future generations depends.”
Economy is the link between humanity and Earth’s life-support system
An economy that meets our needs by burning fossil fuels and destroying Earth’s life-support system is like a doctor who practices medicine by killing the patients.
Plag et al., 2013
Responding to the Challenge
“No problem can be solved with the same consciousness that created it.” Albert Einstein
“It is difficult to get a man to understand something when his job depends on not understanding it”
Upton Sinclair
