GOES-R RISK REDUCTION (R3) ACTIVITIES

NOAA Satellite and Information Services Office of Research and Applications June 2005

GOES-R RISK REDUCTION (R3) ACTIVITIES

NOAA Satellite and Information Services Office of Research and Applications June 2005

What GOES R3 plan coversR3 plan tasks

PartnersAWG

Measure of Success

Plan started to organize NOAA participation in GIFTS

Adapted to get ready for GOES-R operational geo hyperspectral capabilities

Focused on atmospheric applications of ABI/HES-IR

Including Coastal Ocean Applications of GOES-R with HES-CWI through COAST

Adding Lightning Mapper, Space Environment Sensors

GOES-R3 Plan covering science activities

Part but not whole program required for end-to-end preparations

GOES-R Science Demonstration covered in GOES R3 plan

* Initial Instrument Cal/ValT/V and post-launch checkout

* Ground System /Archive Design * Algorithm and Product Development

science ATBDssimulationsproduct demonstration during science data gathering tested science s/w GOES-R operational scenarios (OSDPD, NWS)

* Education and Outreach

End to End GOES-R System Plan (parts covered in GOES R3 plan)

* User Requirementsset forth in GOES Users Conferences (OSD, ORA)

* Instrument Requirementsdrafted in PORD (ORA, OSD, GSFC)

Tradeoffs between Inst Design and Science Reqdialogue with vendor (OSD, ORA)

Initial Instrument Cal/ValT/V and post-launch checkout (ORA)

* Ground System /Archive Design, Testing, and Implementation (OSD)* Algorithm and Product Development

science ATBDs (ORA)simulations (ORA)product demonstration during science data gathering (ORA, JCSDA)tested science s/w (ORA)s/w architecture studies for real time processing (ORA, OSDPD)

* Transition to Operationsscience s/w optimization and implementation (OSDPD)GOES-R operational scenarios (OSDPD, NWS)operational cal/valscience stewardship (ORA, NCDC)archive (NCDC)data assimilation (EMC)

* Education and Outreach

GOES R3

explore/prepare/gather/test/learn/demonstrate/benchmark

Operational GOES R

optimize/document/implement/process/validate/archive/assimilate

GOES-R RISK REDUCTION (R3) ACTIVITIES

NOAA Satellite and Information Services Office of Research and Applications June 2005

What GOES R3 plan covers R3 plan tasks

PartnersAWG

Measure of Success

Major points for R3 PlanR3 embraces all multi- & hyper -spectral experiences for GOES-R preparation

AVIRIS, SHIS, NASTI, SeaWIFS, Hyperion, MODIS, AIRS, MSG, IASI, CrIS, GIFTS

Time continuous hyperspectral data offer new opportunities balance of temporal, spatial, and spectral for ocean and atm observations

Instrument characterization pre-launch vacuum test experience with CrIS and GIFTS important

Aircraft, leo, geo-GIFTS (?), & simulated data used for science prepnear polar MODIS & AIRS and ER-2 in crop duster flights importantdata over a variety of coastal and weather situations will be collected

R3 plan covers preparations for radiances and derived productsdesign options for ground system and archive considered(implementation resourced elsewhere)

R3 plan covers FY04 through FY12resources are distributed over 10 tasksFY06 starts full strength preparations

R3 TasksData processing and Archive Design (Task 0)

helps with timely design and continues advisory capacity during implementationAlgorithm Development (Task 1)

starts with ATBDs for GIFTS CDR, learns from aircraft and leo data, & builds foundation for prototype ops systemPreparations for Data Assimilation (Task 2)

start early and expand just before launchDesign Tradeoffs (Task 3)

continues to guide trade space between algorithms & instrumentCalibration / Validation (Task 4)

exploits CrIS and GIFTS TV in prep for GOES-R TV, prepares for field campaignsData Assimilation (Task 5)

big challenge is addressed earlyComputer System for NWP (Task 6)

one time purchase plus annual maintenanceData impact tests (Task 7)

many OSEs of different components of observing systemNowcasting applications development (Task 8)

new products and visualizationsEducation and Outreach and Training (Task 9)

distance learning tools & K-16 involvement

R3 addresses challenges of GOES-R data utilization

(1) better use over land, (2) better use in clouds, (3) better use in coastal regions(4) exploitation of spatial & temporal gradients measured by

satellite instruments(5) data compression techniques that don’t average out 3

sigma events (ie. retrievals versus super channels), (6) inter-satellite calibration consistency,(7) early demonstration projects before operations,(8) synergy with complementary observing systems (ie.

GPS and leo microwave),(9) sustained observations of oceans & atmosphere and

ultimately climate

R3 Partners

Activity STAR CIMSS CIRA CICS CIOSS JCSDAa OAR SSEC COMET SEC NOS NMES Grnd System X Cal/Val X X X X X X Alg Dev Images X X X X Clouds X X X X Soundings X X X X X X X Winds X X X X New Products b X X X X X X X X Space Env X Assimilation X X X X X X X X Training X X X X X Outreach X X X X X X X a -assumes strong NCEP/EMC involvement b - refers to new product activities in surface, precipitation, ocean, radiation budget, and ozone.

GOES-R improved products includeImagery / Radiances

Sea Surface Temperature (SST)Dust and Volcanic Ash Detection

Precipitation EstimationsAtmospheric Motions

Hurricane Location and IntensityBiomass Burning / Smoke

Fog DetectionAircraft Icing

Radiation Budget Atmospheric Profiles

Water Vapor ProcessesCloud Properties

Surface CharacteristicsAtmospheric Constituents

Ocean Color (Ocean water-leaving radiances or reflectances)Chlorophyll concentration

Suspended sediment concentrationWater clarity / visibility

Coastal CurrentsHarmful Algal Blooms

Coastal Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI)Erosion and Bathymetric Changes

GOES-R RISK REDUCTION (R3) ACTIVITIES

NOAA Satellite and Information Services Office of Research and Applications June 2005

What GOES R3 plan coversR3 plan tasks

Partners AWG

Measure of Success

GOES-R product development consists of 5 phases:

1) Exploratory (akin to NPOESS IGS Studies, included in GOES R3)

2) Product Development and Research Demonstration (ATBDs and science demonstration in GOES R3)3) Operational Testing

(Algorithm Working Group guiding Single Prime)4) Operational Transition 

(collaborative effort between Prime, ORA, and OSDPD)5) Operational Production

(established by Prime & maintained by OSDPD)

GOES-R Product Generation Development

Exploratory

Product Development& Demonstration

Operational Testing

Operational Transition

Operational Production

GOES-R Risk Reduction

AlgWG

System Prime

AlgWG will continue to develop and improve algorithms over the life cycle of GOES-R

GOES-R RISK REDUCTION (R3) ACTIVITIES

NOAA Satellite and Information Services Office of Research and Applications June 2005

What GOES R3 plan coversR3 plan tasks

PartnersAWG

Measure of Success

Climate

Current GOES -- a wide variety of Applications

Natural Hazards

Weather

Ocean

Hydrology NumericalWeather Prediction

Can weather forecast duration and reliability be improved by new remote sensing, data assimilation, and modeling?GOES-R improves 3-5 day forecast accuracy by 1 day, halves the 3-6 hour severe weather watch and warning boxes and the associated false alarm rates, supports 1 hr lead time for tornado warnings How are precipitation, evaporation, and the cycling of water changing?GOES-R fills in radar rainrate detection gaps and extends radar quality rain detection over all of CONUSWhat are the effects of clouds and surface hydrologic processes on weather and forecasting as well as climate?GOES-R enables model to double skill of cloud/no-cloud and precipitation forecasts out to 3-daysCan satellite data contributions improve seasonal to inter-annual forecasts?GOES-R halves error of wet-dry region seasonal forecastCan satellite data contributions help to detect long-term change (decadal to centennial time span)?GOES-R provides IR calibration reference and distinguishes diurnal cycle so that 20 year climate mission goals are met. How are the oceanic ecosystems (open and coastal) changing? What portions are natural versus anthropogenic?GOES-R distinguishes tidal effects on ocean productivity and enables forecasts of harmful algal bloom

GOES-R will be measured by these science accomplishments

View from ground

View from spaceOK tornado 3 May 99

530 CDT (2330 UTC)

1800 UTC

2300 UTC

GOES axis of high LI indicates subsequent storm track 24 Jul 2000

Atmospheric InstabilityNWS Forecaster responses (Summer of 1999) to: "Rate the usefulness of LI, CAPE & CINH (changes in time/axes/gradients in the hourly product) for location/timing of thunderstorms." There were 248 valid weather cases.- Significant Positive Impact (30%)- Slight Positive Impact (49%)- No Discernible Impact (19%)- Slight Negative Impact (2%)- Significant Negative Impact (0)

Figure from the National Weather Service, Office of Services

Space - based GOS

KALPANA (India) &

Evolution of NWP skill in northern & southern hemispheres

NH

SH

Lessons learned* good pre-launch characterization of instrument measurements is vital* dedicated expert supports NWP center for new instrument assimilation* innovation and flexibility important(eg., radiances from layers, 4DVAR) * satellite data having greater impactthan raobs in both hemispheres* five day fcst anomaly corr improved25% in last twenty years

Example from ECMWF