INTERREG IVA 2 Mers Seas Zeeën Crossborder Cooperation Programme 2007-2013Part-financed by the European Regional Development Fund (ERDF)

Going Green:Carbon reduction through

nature

CaRe-LandsCluster event

June, 25th 2014

INTERREG IVA 2 Mers Seas Zeeën Crossborder Cooperation Programme 2007-2013Part-financed by the European Regional Development Fund (ERDF)

Will Day

Going Green: Carbon reduction through nature

Will Day

Grandhotel ter Duin June 2014

The Economy

Slide 6

August 20th

New Scientist 2008 from Steffen et al 2004

Northern Hemisphere average surface temperature

Population

Motor vehiclesSpecies extinctions1750

1850 1950

GDP Foreign investment

The great acceleration

With a population of 8.3 billion people by 2030,we’ll need…

35%more food

50%more

energy

40%

more water

Source: OECD; Dan Hammer, Center for Global Development

The Food-Water-Energy Nexus

Food Energy

Water

Land

Scarce resources

Slide 13

Worsening per capita water availability

To meet the increasing demand froma growing population, we will needto produce more food in the next40 years than has been produced inthe previous 8,000 years.

Jason Clay, Senior Vice President WWF

There is less land than you thinkLand area of all countries, in billions of acres

37.1 Total

3.5Arable land

Source: Center for Sustainability and the Global Environment, University of Wisconsin

Philippe Rekacewicz, UNEP/GRID-Arendal

++

Food production is very energy intensive

Food Energy Available

Source: University of Michigan study by Hellar and Keoleian done in 2000

Fossil Energy we put in…

Food Energy we get out!

Household Storage & Preparation

Commercial Food Service

Food Retail

Packaging Material

Processing Industry

Transportation

Agricultural Production

Food Energy Available

Expected growth in biofuel demand

000,000?No 7,200,000,000?

• This interactive visualisation depicts dramatic population changes, based on data released by the UN Department of Economic and Social Affiars/Population Division for 1950 – 2010 and a projection for 2100.

Country population: past, present, future

Slide 24

Slide 27 Stern Review

Slide 29

TRUTTrust in institutions to operate in society’s best interest

What can we expect?

• Changing rainfall and weather patterns• Sea level rise• Loss of habitat• Loss of biodiversity• Increasing extreme weather • Migration

What is the impact?

• Growing global demand for food production• Requirement for renewable energy• Shorter supply chains• Africa as the world’s bread basket?• Massive urban growth

• Crops bad, trees good? Need to understand the science

• Cities bad, countryside good? – can’t be competition – Costa Rica

• Land use change on it’s own insufficient - ‘Reducing emissions in the land use sector cannot compensate for a lack of reduction in industrial emissions.’

It’s not as simple as we might think

Who does what best?

Government – Environment Minister, Regulators, Planning authorities, Protected areas

Market – Commercial agriculture, Rural economies. Green growth

NGOs/civil society – lobby, advocate, consume, vote, educate

Technology?

Why Sustainable Development?

• Not ‘sustained…’• Should be ‘common sense’• Joined up – economics, politics, environment, social• Chinese Vice-Minister – the most important

conversation• Helps think beyond short term commercial and political timetables

Politically inconvenient

Imperatives…..

• Decarbonise the global economy – vital and urgent• Recognise the true value of nature and of the services

we derive from it – health, water, food, fibre, fuel• Protect our threatened biodiversity• Appreciate the need for successful rural economies• Make better informed planning decisions• Help legislators and citizens understand why land use, and the longer term, matters• Work together

Thank you

Dank u

william.day@phonecoop.coop