going up for the rebound - sagepolicy.com · going up for the rebound ... 20 myanmar southeast asia...

By: Anirban Basu Sage Policy Group, Inc.

December 19, 2013

Going Up for the Rebound

On Behalf of

American Council of Engineering Companies

First Pitch

Historic and Projected World Output Growth 2004 through 2014*

Source: International Monetary Fund

*2013-2014 data are projections

-2.0%

-1.0%

0.0%

1.0%

2.0%

3.0%

4.0%

5.0%

6.0%

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

5.1% 4.7%

5.2% 5.3%

2.7%

-0.4%

5.2%

3.9%

3.2% 2.9%

3.6%

Ann

ual %

Cha

nge

Real GDP Growth, 20 Fastest and Slowest Growing Countries Es/mated 2013, Annual Percent Change (for available na/ons)

Rank Country Region % Rank Country Region % 1 South Sudan Africa 24.7 169 Belgium Europe 0.1 2 Sierra Leone Africa 13.3 170 Denmark Europe 0.1 3 Turkmenistan Central Asia 12.2 171 Samoa Asia 0.1 4 Paraguay South America 12.0 172 Swaziland Africa 0.0 5 Mongolia Asia 11.8 173 Czech Republic Europe -0.4 6 Lao P.D.R. Southeast Asia 8.3 174 Croatia Eastern Europe -0.6 7 Liberia Africa 8.1 175 Finland Europe -0.6 8 Timor-Leste Southeast Asia 8.1 176 Barbados Caribbean -0.8 9 Côte d'Ivoire Africa 8.0 177 Spain Europe -1.3

10 Ghana Africa 7.9 178 Netherlands Europe -1.3 11 China Asia 7.6 179 Equatorial Guinea Africa -1.5 12 Panama Central America 7.5 180 Islamic Republic of Iran Middle East -1.5 13 Rwanda Africa 7.5 181 Portugal Europe -1.8 14 Kyrgyz Republic Central Asia 7.4 182 Italy Europe -1.8 15 Uzbekistan Central Asia 7.0 183 Slovenia Eastern Europe -2.6 16 Cambodia Southeast Asia 7.0 184 San Marino Europe -3.5 17 Ethiopia Africa 7.0 185 Greece Europe -4.2 18 Mozambique Africa 7.0 186 Libya Middle East -5.1 19 Tanzania Africa 7.0 187 Cyprus Europe -8.7 20 Myanmar Southeast Asia 6.8 188 Central African Republic Africa -14.5

*2013-2014 data are projections


EsAmated Growth in Output by Select Global Areas 2013 Projected

1.2% 2.5% 2.7%

2.1% 3.8%

7.6% 6.3%

1.5% 2.3%

5.0% 4.5%

1.6% 1.6%

1.4% 2.0%

-1.3% -1.8%

0.5% 0.2%

-0.4% 1.2%

-4.0% -2.0% 0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 6.0% 8.0% 10.0% Mexico

Brazil Latin America and Caribbean Middle East and North Africa

India China

Developing Asia Russia

Central/eastern Europe Sub-Saharan Africa

Emerging/developing countries United States

Canada United Kingdom

Japan Spain

Italy Germany

France Euro area

Advanced economies

Annual % Change


Debt by Selected Country 2012

0 50 100 150 200 250

Saudi Arabia Russia

Indonesia China

South Africa Mexico

Argentina India* Brazil

Germany Canada Spain

United Kingdom France

United States Italy

Japan*

General Government Gross Debt in Percent of GDP

*IMF Staff Projections


Rank Exchange Index % Change

4 Tokyo SE Nikkei 225 44.1% 2 Nasdaq NASDAQ Composite 28.6% 1 Euronext CAC 40 20.9%

12 NYSE Group DJI A 17.4% 6 Swiss Exchange Swiss Market 16.9% 8 Frankfurt SE DAX 15.8% 5 Bolsa De Madrid Madrid General 9.8% 3 London SE FTSE 100 8.9%

10 TSX Group S&P TSX Composite 6.9% 9 BorsaItaliana FTSE MIB 5.4% 11 Hong Kong Exchanges Hang Seng Index -0.3% 7 Shanghai SE Shanghai Composite -0.3%

Top 12 Stock Exchanges Year to date Growth Thru 12/13/13

Source: Yahoo! Finance

S&P Select Sector Performance 12-‐Month Percent Change as of December 13th, 2013

Source: Standard & Poor’s

0% 10% 20% 30% 40%

Telecommunication Services

Utilities

Information Technology

Energy

Consumer Staples

Materials

Industrials

Financials

Health Care

Consumer Discretionary

1.5%

6.3%

20.8%

16.8%

17.2%

21.1%

31.9%

31.9%

32.4%

37.4%

12-‐month percent change

Federal Reserve Balance Sheet v. S&P 500 Index May 2008 – December 2013

Source: Federal Reserve Bank; Yahoo Finance

S&P 500 index depicted in orange

500

700

900

1100

1300

1500

1700

1900

0.8

1.3

1.8

2.3

2.8

3.3

3.8

4.3

May-‐08

Jul-‐08

Sep-‐08

Nov

-‐08

Jan-‐09

Mar-‐09

May-‐09

Jul-‐09

Sep-‐09

Nov

-‐09

Jan-‐10

Mar-‐10

May-‐10

Jul-‐10

Sep-‐10

Nov

-‐10

Jan-‐11

Mar-‐11

May-‐11

Jul-‐11

Sep-‐11

Nov

-‐11

Jan-‐12

Mar-‐12

May-‐12

Jul-‐12

Sep-‐12

Nov

-‐12

Jan-‐13

Mar-‐13

May-‐13

Jul-‐13

Sep-‐13

Nov

-‐13

S&P 500 FRB Credit Reserve $Trillions

Third Quarter Earnings for Select CorporaAons Earnings per Share

Symbol Q3 2012 Q3 2013 Estimated

Q3 2013 Reported Surprise Symbol Q3 2012 Q3 2013

Estimated Q3 2013

Reported Surprise

FCX $0.68 $0.62 $0.79 $0.17 UTX $1.37 $1.54 $1.55 $0.01 VFC $3.52 $3.78 $3.91 $0.13 XRX $0.25 $0.25 $0.26 $0.01 BTU $0.51 -‐$0.04 $0.05 $0.09 GE $0.36 $0.35 $0.36 $0.01 MSFT $0.60 $0.54 $0.62 $0.08 COH $0.77 $0.76 $0.77 $0.01 COF $2.01 $1.80 $1.86 $0.06 UPS $1.06 $1.15 $1.16 $0.01 DD $0.32 $0.41 $0.45 $0.04 MCD $1.43 $1.51 $1.52 $0.01 VZ $0.64 $0.74 $0.77 $0.03 HON $1.20 $1.24 $1.24 $0.00 MMM $1.65 $1.75 $1.78 $0.03 DOW $0.42 $0.54 $0.50 -‐$0.04 TXN $0.52 $0.53 $0.56 $0.03 CMG $2.27 $2.78 $2.66 -‐$0.12 AMD -‐$0.20 $0.02 $0.04 $0.02 CAT $2.54 $1.67 $1.45 -‐$0.22 YHOO $0.35 $0.33 $0.34 $0.01 STI $1.98 $0.69 $0.33 -‐$0.36

Source: Yahoo! Finance

Source: Moody’s Economy

Recession Watch as of October 2013

Industrial ProducAon January 2001 through November 2013

Source: Federal Reserve

The industrial production index measures the real output of the manufacturing, mining, and electric and gas utilities industries.

80

85

90

95

100

105 Jan-‐01

May-‐01

Sep-‐01

Jan-‐02

May-‐02

Sep-‐02

Jan-‐03

May-‐03

Sep-‐03

Jan-‐04

May-‐04

Sep-‐04

Jan-‐05

May-‐05

Sep-‐05

Jan-‐06

May-‐06

Sep-‐06

Jan-‐07

May-‐07

Sep-‐07

Jan-‐08

May-‐08

Sep-‐08

Jan-‐09

May-‐09

Sep-‐09

Jan-‐10

May-‐10

Sep-‐10

Jan-‐11

May-‐11

Sep-‐11

Jan-‐12

May-‐12

Sep-‐12

Jan-‐13

May-‐13

Sep-‐13

Inde

x (200

7 = 100)

(Base year: 2007)

Gross DomesAc Product 1990Q1 through 2013Q3

-‐10%

-‐8%

-‐6%

-‐4%

-‐2%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8% 1990

Q1

1990

Q3

1991Q1

1991Q3

1992

Q1

1992

Q3

1993

Q1

1993

Q3

1994

Q1

1994

Q3

1995

Q1

1995

Q3

1996

Q1

1996

Q3

1997

Q1

1997

Q3

1998

Q1

1998

Q3

1999

Q1

1999

Q3

2000

Q1

2000

Q3

2001Q1

2001Q3

2002

Q1

2002

Q3

2003

Q1

2003

Q3

2004

Q1

2004

Q3

2005

Q1

2005

Q3

2006

Q1

2006

Q3

2007

Q1

2007

Q3

2008

Q1

2008

Q3

2009

Q1

2009

Q3

2010Q1

2010Q3

2011Q

1 20

11Q3

2012Q1

2012Q3

2013Q1

2013Q3

Per

cent

Cha

nge from

Pre

ceding

Per

iod (SAAR)

2013Q3: 3.6%

Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis

ContribuAons to GDP Growth by Component Q3 2012 – Q3 2013

Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis

-‐1.5

-‐1.0

-‐0.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

Personal Consumption

Government Spending

Net Exports Gross Investment

1.2

0.7

0.0

1.0 1.1

-‐1.3

0.7

-‐0.4

1.5

-‐0.8

-‐0.3

0.7

1.2

-‐0.1 -‐0.1

1.4

0.96

0.09 0.07

2.49

SAAR (%

)

Q3-‐12 Q4-‐12 Q1-‐13 Q2-‐13 Q3-‐13

Red Card/ Pink Slip

-1000

-800

-600

-400

-200

0

200

400

600

Jan-

02

Apr

-02

Jul-0

2 O

ct-0

2 Ja

n-03

A

pr-0

3 Ju

l-03

Oct

-03

Jan-

04

Apr

-04

Jul-0

4 O

ct-0

4 Ja

n-05

A

pr-0

5 Ju

l-05

Oct

-05

Jan-

06

Apr

-06

Jul-0

6 O

ct-0

6 Ja

n-07

A

pr-0

7 Ju

l-07

Oct

-07

Jan-

08

Apr

-08

Jul-0

8 O

ct-0

8 Ja

n-09

A

pr-0

9 Ju

l-09

Oct

-09

Jan-

10

Apr

-10

Jul-1

0 O

ct-1

0 Ja

n-11

A

pr-1

1 Ju

l-11

Oct

-11

Jan-

12

Apr

-12

Jul-1

2 O

ct-1

2 Ja

n-13

A

pr-1

3 Ju

l-13

Oct

-13

Thou

sand

s

Net Change in U.S. Jobs, BLS January 2002 through November 2013

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

November 2013: +203K

NaAonal Nonfarm Employment by Industry Sector November 2012 v. November 2013

-22

-1

31

35

76

83

178

366

422

482

643

-‐100 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700

Government

InformaBon

Mining and Logging

Other Services

Manufacturing

Financial AcBviBes

ConstrucBon

EducaBon and Health Services

Leisure and Hospitality

Trade, TransportaBon, and UBliBes

Professional and Business Services

Thousands, SA

All told 2,293 K Jobs gained


-‐12,000

-‐10,000

-‐8,000

-‐6,000

-‐4,000

-‐2,000

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

Dec-‐07

Mar-‐08

Jun-‐08

Sep-‐08

Dec-‐08

Mar-‐09

Jun-‐09

Sep-‐09

Dec-‐09

Mar-‐10

Jun-‐10

Sep-‐10

Dec-‐10

Mar-‐11

Jun-‐11

Sep-‐11

Dec-‐11

Mar-‐12

Jun-‐12

Sep-‐12

Dec-‐12

Mar-‐13

Jun-‐13

Sep-‐13

Full-‐time

Part-‐time

CumulaAve Job Growth Since December 2007: Full-‐Ame v. Part-‐Ame December 2007 – November 2013

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Population Survey

Full-‐time: -‐4.68 million Part-‐time: +2.71 million

Nov-‐13, +17

-‐200

-‐150

-‐100

-‐50

0

50

100

Feb-‐00

Jul-‐00

Dec-‐00

May-‐01

Oct-‐01

Mar-‐02

Aug

-‐02

Jan-‐03

Jun-‐03

Nov

-‐03

Apr-‐04

Sep-‐04

Feb-‐05

Jul-‐05

Dec-‐05

May-‐06

Oct-‐06

Mar-‐07

Aug

-‐07

Jan-‐08

Jun-‐08

Nov

-‐08

Apr-‐09

Sep-‐09

Feb-‐10

Jul-‐10

Dec-‐10

May-‐11

Oct-‐11

Mar-‐12

Aug

-‐12

Jan-‐13

Jun-‐13

Nov

-‐13

Mon

thly N

et Cha

nge (tho

usan

ds)

NaAonal ConstrucAon Employment Monthly Net Change February 2000 through November 2013


Industry Sector 13-‐Nov 13-‐Oct 12-‐Nov 1-‐net 12-‐net 12-‐% ConstrucBon 5851.0 5834.0 5673.0 17.0 178.0 3.1% ResidenBal Building 595.5 594.2 574.2 1.3 21.3 3.7% NonresidenBal Building 687.1 684.8 667.2 2.3 19.9 3.0% Heavy and Civil Engineering ConstrucBon 895.8 895.6 880.2 0.2 15.6 1.8% Specialty Trade Contractors 3672.1 3659.6 3551.4 12.5 120.7 3.4%

Architectural and Engineering Employment November 2003 – November 2013


-‐200

-‐150

-‐100

-‐50

0

50

100

Nov

-‐03

Feb-‐04

May-‐04

Aug

-‐04

Nov

-‐04

Feb-‐05

May-‐05

Aug

-‐05

Nov

-‐05

Feb-‐06

May-‐06

Aug

-‐06

Nov

-‐06

Feb-‐07

May-‐07

Aug

-‐07

Nov

-‐07

Feb-‐08

May-‐08

Aug

-‐08

Nov

-‐08

Feb-‐09

May-‐09

Aug

-‐09

Nov

-‐09

Feb-‐10

May-‐10

Aug

-‐10

Nov

-‐10

Feb-‐11

May-‐11

Aug

-‐11

Nov

-‐11

Feb-‐12

May-‐12

Aug

-‐12

Nov

-‐12

Feb-‐13

May-‐13

Aug

-‐13

Nov

-‐13

12-‐M

onth

Net Cha

nge (in Th

ousa

nds)

Architectural Services Employment October 2003 – October 2013


-‐50

-‐40

-‐30

-‐20

-‐10

0

10

20

Oct-‐03

Jan-‐04

Apr-‐04

Jul-‐04

Oct-‐04

Jan-‐05

Apr-‐05

Jul-‐05

Oct-‐05

Jan-‐06

Apr-‐06

Jul-‐06

Oct-‐06

Jan-‐07

Apr-‐07

Jul-‐07

Oct-‐07

Jan-‐08

Apr-‐08

Jul-‐08

Oct-‐08

Jan-‐09

Apr-‐09

Jul-‐09

Oct-‐09

Jan-‐10

Apr-‐10

Jul-‐10

Oct-‐10

Jan-‐11

Apr-‐11

Jul-‐11

Oct-‐11

Jan-‐12

Apr-‐12

Jul-‐12

Oct-‐12

Jan-‐13

Apr-‐13

Jul-‐13

Oct-‐13

12-‐M

onth

Net Cha

nge (in Th

ousa

nds)

Engineering and Dra\ing Services Employment October 2003 – October 2013


-‐80

-‐60

-‐40

-‐20

0

20

40

60

80

Oct-‐03

Jan-‐04

Apr-‐04

Jul-‐04

Oct-‐04

Jan-‐05

Apr-‐05

Jul-‐05

Oct-‐05

Jan-‐06

Apr-‐06

Jul-‐06

Oct-‐06

Jan-‐07

Apr-‐07

Jul-‐07

Oct-‐07

Jan-‐08

Apr-‐08

Jul-‐08

Oct-‐08

Jan-‐09

Apr-‐09

Jul-‐09

Oct-‐09

Jan-‐10

Apr-‐10

Jul-‐10

Oct-‐10

Jan-‐11

Apr-‐11

Jul-‐11

Oct-‐11

Jan-‐12

Apr-‐12

Jul-‐12

Oct-‐12

Jan-‐13

Apr-‐13

Jul-‐13

Oct-‐13

12-‐M

onth

Net Cha

nge (in Th

ousa

nds)

State-‐by-‐state Growth in ConstrucAon Jobs October 2012 v. October 2013


*Construction, Mining, and Logging are included in one industry.

STATE Year-over-year Ch.

(‘000) STATE

Year-over-year Ch.

(‘000) STATE

Year-over-year Ch.

(‘000) Florida 26.6 Iowa 2.4 New Hampshire 0.5 California 26.0 Nevada 2.2 New Mexico 0.5 Texas 14.5 North Dakota 2.2 Alaska 0.3 Louisiana 10.7 Pennsylvania 1.9 Arkansas 0.3 Mississippi 9.3 Kentucky 1.8 Kansas 0.1 Colorado 7.7 Wisconsin 1.8 South Dakota* -0.1 Georgia 7.6 Hawaii* 1.8 Nebraska* -0.4 Missouri 7.0 West Virginia 1.7 Delaware* -0.5 New York 6.7 Idaho 1.3 District of Columbia* -0.7 Massachusetts 6.3 Washington 1.1 Ohio -1.1 Connecticut 5.5 Maine 1.0 Tennessee* -1.5 New Jersey 4.9 Utah 1.0 Montana -1.7 South Carolina 4.9 Wyoming 0.9 Virginia -1.7 Oregon 4.4 Oklahoma 0.8 Alabama -2.2 Michigan 4.1 Rhode Island 0.8 North Carolina -3.6 Minnesota 3.6 Vermont 0.6 Illinois -4.5 Maryland* 2.9 Arizona 0.5 Indiana -11.8

Maryland Nonfarm Employment by Industry Sector Groups (SA) October 2013 v. October 2012 Absolute Change

-2,100

-1,600

-1,200

-1,100

-600

-400

2,900

3,300

10,800

11,900

-4,000 -2,000 0 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000 14,000

Information

Manufacturing

Financial Activities

Government


Other Services

Mining, Logging, and Construction

Trade, Transportation, and Utilities

Education and Health Services


MD Total: +21.9K; +0.8%

US Total (SA): +2,337K; +1.7%

*According to the Local Area Unemployment Statistics (LAUS) series MD lost 16,489 jobs between October 2012 and October 2013.


-5,600

-3,000

-1,400

-500

-200

1,300

5,600

6,400

6,600

10,300

-‐8,000 -‐6,000 -‐4,000 -‐2,000 0 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000

Government

Manufacturing


InformaBon

Other Services

Financial AcBviBes

Mining, Logging, and ConstrucBon


Trade, TransportaBon, and UBliBes

EducaBon and Health Services

BalAmore-‐Towson MSA Nonfarm Employment by Industry Sector Groups (NSA) October 2013 v. October 2012 Absolute Change

Baltimore MSA Total: +19.5K; +1.5%

MD Total (SA): +21.9K; +1.7%

US Total (SA): +2,337K; +1.7%


Washington, DC-‐Arlington-‐Alexandria MSA Nonfarm Employment by Industry Sector Groups (NSA) October 2013 v. October 2012 Absolute Change

-2,500

-2,400

-1,700

-1,500

-800

-700

3,100

5,100

6,600

15,500

-6,000 -1,000 4,000 9,000 14,000 19,000

Mining, Logging, and Construction


Government

Information

Other Services

Manufacturing

Education and Health Services

Trade, Transportation, and Utilities

Financial Activities


DC MSA Total: +20.7K; +0.7%

US Total (SA): +2,337K; +1.7%


U.S. Year-‐over-‐year Percent Change: 1.7%

Employment Growth, U.S. States (SA) October 2012 v. October 2013 Percent Change

RANK STATE % RANK STATE % RANK STATE %

1 NORTH DAKOTA 3.5 17 MASSACHUSETTS 1.6 34 VERMONT 0.9

2 FLORIDA 2.5 17 WASHINGTON 1.6 36 ARKANSAS 0.8

3 IDAHO 2.4 20 INDIANA 1.5 36 MARYLAND 0.8 3 TEXAS 2.4 20 WISCONSIN 1.5 36 WYOMING 0.8

5 GEORGIA 2.2 22 CALIFORNIA 1.4 39 MONTANA 0.7

5 UTAH 2.2 22 NEW JERSEY 1.4 39 NEW HAMPSHIRE 0.7

7 DELAWARE 2.1 24 KANSAS 1.3 39 VIRGINIA 0.7

8 COLORADO 2.0 25 MISSOURI 1.2 42 CONNECTICUT 0.6

8 NORTH CAROLINA 2.0 25 NEBRASKA 1.2 42 MAINE 0.6

10 ARIZONA 1.8 25 RHODE ISLAND 1.2 44 IOWA 0.5

10 MICHIGAN 1.8 25 TENNESSEE 1.2 44 OHIO 0.5

10 MINNESOTA 1.8 29 HAWAII 1.1 44 PENNSYLVANIA 0.5

10 NEVADA 1.8 29 NEW YORK 1.1 47 NEW MEXICO 0.2

10 OREGON 1.8 29 SOUTH DAKOTA 1.1 48 KENTUCKY 0.1

10 SOUTH CAROLINA 1.8 29 WEST VIRGINIA 1.1 49 ALABAMA 0.0

16 MISSISSIPPI 1.7 33 ILLINOIS 1.0 50 DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA -0.1

17 LOUISIANA 1.6 34 OKLAHOMA 0.9 51 ALASKA -0.9


U.S. Unemployment Rate: 7.3%

Unemployment Rates, U.S. States (SA) October 2013

RANK STATE % RANK STATE % RANK STATE %

1 NORTH DAKOTA 2.7 18 ALASKA 6.5 35 SOUTH CAROLINA 7.5

2 SOUTH DAKOTA 3.7 19 LOUISIANA 6.5 35 NEW YORK 7.7

3 NEBRASKA 3.9 20 MISSOURI 6.5 35 OREGON 7.7

4 HAWAII 4.4 20 WISCONSIN 6.5 35 CONNECTICUT 7.9

5 VERMONT 4.5 22 NEW MEXICO 6.6 39 NORTH CAROLINA 8.0

6 IOWA 4.6 22 FLORIDA 6.7 40 GEORGIA 8.1

6 UTAH 4.6 22 IDAHO 6.7 41 ARIZONA 8.2

6 WYOMING 4.6 22 MAINE 6.7 41 KENTUCKY 8.4

9 MINNESOTA 4.8 22 MARYLAND 6.7 41 NEW JERSEY 8.4

10 NEW HAMPSHIRE 5.1 22 COLORADO 6.8 44 TENNESSEE 8.4

11 MONTANA 5.2 28 DELAWARE 6.8 44 MISSISSIPPI 8.5

12 OKLAHOMA 5.5 28 WASHINGTON 7.0 44 CALIFORNIA 8.7

13 KANSAS 5.6 30 MASSACHUSETTS 7.2 47 DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA 8.9

13 VIRGINIA 5.6 30 ARKANSAS 7.5 48 ILLINOIS 8.9

15 TEXAS 6.2 32 INDIANA 7.5 49 MICHIGAN 9.0

15 WEST VIRGINIA 6.2 33 OHIO 7.5 50 RHODE ISLAND 9.2

17 ALABAMA 6.5 34 PENNSYLVANIA 7.5 51 NEVADA 9.3


Unemployment Rates, 20 Largest Metros (NSA) October 2013

Rank MSA UR Rank MSA UR

1 Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI Metropolitan Statistical Area 4.1 11

Baltimore-Towson, MD Metropolitan Statistical Area 6.9

2 Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV Metropolitan Statistical Area 5.9 12

Miami-Fort Lauderdale-Pompano Beach, FL Metropolitan Statistical Area 7.0

2 Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX Metropolitan Statistical Area 5.9 12

San Diego-Carlsbad-San Marcos, CA Metropolitan Statistical Area 7.0

2 Houston-Sugar Land-Baytown, TX Metropolitan Statistical Area 5.9 14

Philadelphia-Camden-Wilmington, PA-NJ-DE-MD Metropolitan Statistical Area 7.6

5 Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue, WA Metropolitan Statistical Area 6.0 15

Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Marietta, GA Metropolitan Statistical Area 7.7

6 San Francisco-Oakland-Fremont, CA Metropolitan Statistical Area 6.2 16

New York-Northern New Jersey-Long Island, NY-NJ-PA Metropolitan Statistical Area 7.8

7 Boston-Cambridge-Quincy, MA-NH Metropolitan NECTA 6.3 17

Chicago-Joliet-Naperville, IL-IN-WI Metropolitan Statistical Area 8.3

8 Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL Metropolitan Statistical Area 6.4 18

Los Angeles-Long Beach-Santa Ana, CA Metropolitan Statistical Area 8.6

9 St. Louis, MO-IL Metropolitan Statistical Area 6.5 19 Detroit-Warren-Livonia, MI Metropolitan Statistical Area 9.0

10 Phoenix-Mesa-Glendale, AZ Metropolitan Statistical Area 6.8 20

Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA Metropolitan Statistical Area 9.8


MD County Unemployment Rates October 2013

Rank Jurisdiction UR Rank Jurisdiction UR

1 Queen Anne's County 5.3 13 Charles County 6.5 1 Carroll County 5.3 14 Baltimore County 6.9 1 Montgomery County 5.3 15 Cecil County 7.1 4 Howard County 5.4 16 Caroline County 7.3 5 Calvert County 5.7 16 Allegany County 7.3 5 Frederick County 5.7 18 Prince George's County 7.6 7 St. Mary's County 5.9 19 Wicomico County 7.8 8 Garrett County 6.1 20 Washington County 7.9 9 Anne Arundel County 6.2 21 Dorchester County 9.2 9 Harford County 6.2 22 Somorset County 9.6 11 Talbot County 6.3 23 Baltimore City 9.7 12 Kent County 6.4 24 Worcester County 9.8


Unemployment Rates Among Select Demographic Groups, Workers Ages 20+, September 2003 & 2013

4.3 4.2

5.8 6.6

8.1 8.5

5.5 5.7

7.4 8.1

10.5

13.7

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

White Women White Men Hispanic/Latino Men

Hispanic/Latino Women

Black/African American Women

Black/African American Men

Sep-‐03 Sep-‐13

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics; CPS

Pad Save

15-‐Year & 30-‐Year Fixed Mortgage Rates February 1995 through December 2013

Source: Freddie Mac

3.43%

4.42%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

6%

7%

8%

9%

10%

Feb-

95

Nov

-95

Aug

-96

May

-97

Feb-

98

Nov

-98

Aug

-99

May

-00

Feb-

01

Nov

-01

Aug

-02

May

-03

Feb-

04

Nov

-04

Aug

-05

May

-06

Feb-

07

Nov

-07

Aug

-08

May

-09

Feb-

10

Nov

-10

Aug

-11

May

-12

Feb-

13

Nov

-13

Rat

e

15-yr 30-yr

U.S. New Home Sales January 1999 through October 2013

Source: Economy.com, Census Bureau

October 2013 444K

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

Thou

sand

s, SAAR

U.S. Housing Starts January 1999 through November 2013

Source: Census Bureau

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500 Fe

b-‐99

May-‐99

Aug

-‐99

Nov

-‐99

Feb-‐00

May-‐00

Aug

-‐00

Nov

-‐00

Feb-‐01

May-‐01

Aug

-‐01

Nov

-‐01

Feb-‐02

May-‐02

Aug

-‐02

Nov

-‐02

Feb-‐03

May-‐03

Aug

-‐03

Nov

-‐03

Feb-‐04

May-‐04

Aug

-‐04

Nov

-‐04

Feb-‐05

May-‐05

Aug

-‐05

Nov

-‐05

Feb-‐06

May-‐06

Aug

-‐06

Nov

-‐06

Feb-‐07

May-‐07

Aug

-‐07

Nov

-‐07

Feb-‐08

May-‐08

Aug

-‐08

Nov

-‐08

Feb-‐09

May-‐09

Aug

-‐09

Nov

-‐09

Feb-‐10

May-‐10

Aug

-‐10

Nov

-‐10

Feb-‐11

May-‐11

Aug

-‐11

Nov

-‐11

Feb-‐12

May-‐12

Aug

-‐12

Nov

-‐12

Feb-‐13

May-‐13

Aug

-‐13

Nov

-‐13

Thou

sand

s, SAAR

1 Unit 5 units or more

U.S. Housing Building Permits January 1999 through November 2013

Source: Census Bureau

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500 Fe

b-‐99

May-‐99

Aug

-‐99

Nov

-‐99

Feb-‐00

May-‐00

Aug

-‐00

Nov

-‐00

Feb-‐01

May-‐01

Aug

-‐01

Nov

-‐01

Feb-‐02

May-‐02

Aug

-‐02

Nov

-‐02

Feb-‐03

May-‐03

Aug

-‐03

Nov

-‐03

Feb-‐04

May-‐04

Aug

-‐04

Nov

-‐04

Feb-‐05

May-‐05

Aug

-‐05

Nov

-‐05

Feb-‐06

May-‐06

Aug

-‐06

Nov

-‐06

Feb-‐07

May-‐07

Aug

-‐07

Nov

-‐07

Feb-‐08

May-‐08

Aug

-‐08

Nov

-‐08

Feb-‐09

May-‐09

Aug

-‐09

Nov

-‐09

Feb-‐10

May-‐10

Aug

-‐10

Nov

-‐10

Feb-‐11

May-‐11

Aug

-‐11

Nov

-‐11

Feb-‐12

May-‐12

Aug

-‐12

Nov

-‐12

Feb-‐13

May-‐13

Aug

-‐13

Nov

-‐13

Thou

sand

s, SAAR

1 Unit 5 units or more

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

4.3%

7.0% 7.5% 9.1% 9.7% 9.9%

13.3% 14.3%

17.2% 18.7%

21.8%

25.7%

29.1%

12-‐M

onth %

Cha

nge

S&P/Case-‐Shiller Home Price Indices for Select Metros September 2013, 12-‐Month Percentage Change

Source: Standard & Poor’s

Source: The American Institute of Architects

Architecture Billings Index December 2007 through October 2013

30

35

40

45

50

55

60 October. 2013: 51.6

NonresidenAal ConstrucAon Put-‐in-‐Place October 2006 through October 2013

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

Oct-‐06

Dec-‐06

Feb-‐07

Apr-‐07

Jun-‐07

Aug-‐07

Oct-‐07

Dec-‐07

Feb-‐08

Apr-‐08

Jun-‐08

Aug-‐08

Oct-‐08

Dec-‐08

Feb-‐09

Apr-‐09

Jun-‐09

Aug-‐09

Oct-‐09

Dec-‐09

Feb-‐10

Apr-‐10

Jun-‐10

Aug-‐10

Oct-‐10

Dec-‐10

Feb-‐11

Apr-‐11

Jun-‐11

Aug-‐11

Oct-‐11

Dec-‐11

Feb-‐12

Apr-‐12

Jun-‐12

Aug-‐12

Oct-‐12

Dec-‐12

Feb-‐13

Apr-‐13

Jun-‐13

Aug-‐13

Oct-‐13

SAA

R ($billion

s)

Public

Private

Source: U.S. Census Bureau

Oct. 08: $719.0 billion Oct. 13: $575.6 billion

-‐20%

NaAonal NonresidenAal ConstrucAon Spending by Subsector October 2012 v. October 2013

-‐16.1 -‐15.1

-‐12.6 -‐7.2

-‐2.7 -‐2.4

-‐1.2 -‐1.0 -‐0.6

3.2 4.4 4.5

5.8 9.3

14.3 17.5

-‐20 -‐15 -‐10 -‐5 0 5 10 15 20

CommunicaBon Power

Religious ConservaBon and development

Office EducaBonal Public safety

Amusement and recreaBon Health care

Manufacturing Commercial

Sewage and waste disposal TransportaBon

Highway and street Water supply

Lodging

12-‐month % Change

Source: U.S. Census Bureau

Inputs to ConstrucAon PPI January 2001 – November 2013

-‐10%

-‐5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

Jan-‐01

Apr-‐01

Jul-‐01

Oct-‐01

Jan-‐02

Apr-‐02

Jul-‐02

Oct-‐02

Jan-‐03

Apr-‐03

Jul-‐03

Oct-‐03

Jan-‐04

Apr-‐04

Jul-‐04

Oct-‐04

Jan-‐05

Apr-‐05

Jul-‐05

Oct-‐05

Jan-‐06

Apr-‐06

Jul-‐06

Oct-‐06

Jan-‐07

Apr-‐07

Jul-‐07

Oct-‐07

Jan-‐08

Apr-‐08

Jul-‐08

Oct-‐08

Jan-‐09

Apr-‐09

Jul-‐09

Oct-‐09

Jan-‐10

Apr-‐10

Jul-‐10

Oct-‐10

Jan-‐11

Apr-‐11

Jul-‐11

Oct-‐11

Jan-‐12

Apr-‐12

Jul-‐12

Oct-‐12

Jan-‐13

Apr-‐13

Jul-‐13

Oct-‐13

12-‐m

onth

Per

cent

Cha

nge


Key Commodity Prices January 2001 – October 2013

Source: BLS: EIA

-40 -30 -20 -10

0 10 20 30 40 50

Jan-

01

Oct

-01

Jul-0

2

Apr

-03

Jan-

04

Oct

-04

Jul-0

5

Apr

-06

Jan-

07

Oct

-07

Jul-0

8

Apr

-09

Jan-

10

Oct

-10

Jul-1

1

Apr

-12

Jan-

13

Oct

-13

12-m

onth

% C

hang

e

Iron & Steel PPI

-4 -2 0 2 4 6 8

10 12

Jan-

01

Oct

-01

Jul-0

2

Apr

-03

Jan-

04

Oct

-04

Jul-0

5

Apr

-06

Jan-

07

Oct

-07

Jul-0

8

Apr

-09

Jan-

10

Oct

-10

Jul-1

1

Apr

-12

Jan-

13

Oct

-13

12-m

onth

% C

hang

e

Concrete Products PPI

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

Jan-

01

Oct

-01

Jul-0

2

Apr

-03

Jan-

04

Oct

-04

Jul-0

5

Apr

-06

Jan-

07

Oct

-07

Jul-0

8

Apr

-09

Jan-

10

Oct

-10

Jul-1

1

Apr

-12

Jan-

13

Oct

-13

12-m

onth

% C

hang

e

Softwood Lumber PPI

-60 -40 -20

0 20 40 60 80

100

Jan-

01

Oct

-01

Jul-0

2

Apr

-03

Jan-

04

Oct

-04

Jul-0

5

Apr

-06

Jan-

07

Oct

-07

Jul-0

8

Apr

-09

Jan-

10

Oct

-10

Jul-1

1

Apr

-12

Jan-

13

Oct

-13

12-m

onth

% C

hang

e

NYMEX Crude Oil

ConstrucAon Materials PPI 12-‐month % Change as of November 2013


-‐11% -‐6% -‐1% 4% 9% 14%

Nonferrous metals

Asphalt felts and coatings

Iron and steel

Fabricated structural metal products

Glass

Clay construction products ex. refractories

Concrete products

Plywood

Prefabricated wood structural members

Softwood lumber

Gypsum products

-‐6.0%

-‐1.2%

-‐0.1%

0.3%

1.1%

2.5%

2.7%

3.1%

8.1%

12.8%

13.7%

Conference Board Leading Economic Indicators Index August 2007 through October 2013

Source: Conference Board

-‐1.5%

-‐1.0%

-‐0.5%

0.0%

0.5%

1.0%

1.5% Aug

-‐07

Oct-‐07

Dec-‐07

Feb-‐08

Apr-‐08

Jun-‐08

Aug

-‐08

Oct-‐08

Dec-‐08

Feb-‐09

Apr-‐09

Jun-‐09

Aug

-‐09

Oct-‐09

Dec-‐09

Feb-‐10

Apr-‐10

Jun-‐10

Aug

-‐10

Oct-‐10

Dec-‐10

Feb-‐11

Apr-‐11

Jun-‐11

Aug

-‐11

Oct-‐11

Dec-‐11

Feb-‐12

Apr-‐12

Jun-‐12

Aug

-‐12

Oct-‐12

Dec-‐12

Feb-‐13

Apr-‐13

Jun-‐13

Aug

-‐13

Oct-‐13

One

-‐mon

th Per

cent

Cha

nge

October 2013 = 97.5 where 2004=100

Final, Period.

•  As predicted, first half of year was quite soft in terms of economic expansion as sequestration and tax hikes make their mark;

•  Second half of year should have been better, with growth headed above 2 percent– will end up around 2 percent after revisions;

•  Many headwinds remain and the recovery could easily falter;

•  Black swan threats: (1) Iran (2) Israel/Iran (3) Europe (4) contagion (5) cyber (6) EMP;

•  Maryland has held its own to date, but there are major discrepancies between the household survey and the establishment survey – one of them is probably wrong; and

•  We are an increasingly part-‐time nation – that looks like a problem.

Thank You � Follow us on Twitter @SagePolicyGroup � You can always reach me at [email protected]

� Please look for updates of information at www.sagepolicy.com.

� Also, if you need us in a hurry, we are at 410.522.7243 (410.522.SAGE)

� Please contact us when you require economic research & policy analysis.

going up for the rebound - sagepolicy.com · going up for the rebound ... 20 myanmar southeast asia...

Documents