gold mining: delivering on the sector’s potential in 2013' by chuck jeannes, goldcorp at...

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Page 1: Gold Mining: Delivering on the Sector’s Potential in 2013' by Chuck Jeannes, Goldcorp at Mines and Money Hong Kong 2013

Presented at:

www.minesandmoney.com/hongkong

Page 2: Gold Mining: Delivering on the Sector’s Potential in 2013' by Chuck Jeannes, Goldcorp at Mines and Money Hong Kong 2013

MARCH 21, 2013Mines & Money Hong Kong

STRATEGY.DISCIPLINE.EXECUTION.

Page 3: Gold Mining: Delivering on the Sector’s Potential in 2013' by Chuck Jeannes, Goldcorp at Mines and Money Hong Kong 2013

AGENDA

Gold price – is the bull market over?

Gold equities – why the underperformance?

Goldcorp – how are we changing the paradigm?

G O L D , T H E G O L D S E C T O R A N D GOLDCORP

3

Page 4: Gold Mining: Delivering on the Sector’s Potential in 2013' by Chuck Jeannes, Goldcorp at Mines and Money Hong Kong 2013

FORWARD LOOKING STATEMENTS

This presentation contains “forward-looking statements”, within the meaning of the United States Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995 and applicable Canadian securities legislation, concerning the business, operations and financial performance and condition of Goldcorp Inc. (“Goldcorp”). Forward-looking statements include, but are not limited to, statements with respect to the future price of gold, silver, copper, lead and zinc, the estimation of mineral reserves and resources, the realization of mineral reserve estimates, the timing and amount of estimated future production, costs of production, capital expenditures, costs and timing of the development of new deposits, success of exploration activities, permitting time lines, hedging practices, currency exchange rate fluctuations, requirements for additional capital, government regulation of mining operations, environmental risks, unanticipated reclamation expenses, timing and possible outcome of pending litigation, title disputes or claims and limitations on insurance coverage. Generally, these forward-looking statements can be identified by the use of forward-looking terminology such as “plans”, “expects” or “does not expect”, “is expected”, “budget”, “scheduled”, “estimates”, “forecasts”, “intends”, “anticipates” or “does not anticipate”, “believes” or variations of such words and phrases or statements that certain actions, events or results “may”, “could”, “would”, “might” or “will be taken”, “occur” or “be achieved”. Forward-looking statements are subject to known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors that may cause the actual results, level of activity, performance or achievements of Goldcorp to be materially different from those expressed or implied by such forward-looking statements, including but not limited to: risks related to the integration of acquisitions; risks related to international operations; risks related to joint venture operations; actual results of current exploration activities; actual results of current reclamation activities; conclusions of economic evaluations; changes in project parameters as plans continue to be refined; future prices of gold, silver, copper, lead and zinc; possible variations in ore reserves, grade or recovery rates; failure of plant, equipment or processes to operate as anticipated; accidents, labour disputes; delays in obtaining governmental approvals or financing or in the completion of development or construction activities and other risks of the mining industry, as well as those factors discussed in the section entitled “Description of the Business – Risk Factors” in Goldcorp’s annual information form for the year ended December 31, 2012 available at www.sedar.com. Although Goldcorp has attempted to identify important factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those contained in forward-looking statements, there may be other factors that cause results not to be as anticipated, estimated or intended. There can be no assurance that such statements will prove to be accurate, as actual results and future events could differ materially from those anticipated in such statements. Accordingly, readers should not place undue reliance on forward-looking statements. Goldcorp does not undertake to update any forward-looking statements that are included in this document, except in accordance with applicable securities laws.

All amounts are in U.S. dollars, unless otherwise stated.

4

Page 5: Gold Mining: Delivering on the Sector’s Potential in 2013' by Chuck Jeannes, Goldcorp at Mines and Money Hong Kong 2013

GOLD PRICE – WHAT’S NEXT?

Page 6: Gold Mining: Delivering on the Sector’s Potential in 2013' by Chuck Jeannes, Goldcorp at Mines and Money Hong Kong 2013

WHY GOLD?

6

516%

Central bank buying

Flat mine supply

Stable investment

demand

Safe haven/asset class Inflation

hedge

Currency protection

Growing physical demand

China factor

Continued debasement of international

currencies

increase over 2000

Dec. 31, 2000 – Dec. 31, 2012

12 Consecutive Years of Gold Price Growth

2000 2012

Page 7: Gold Mining: Delivering on the Sector’s Potential in 2013' by Chuck Jeannes, Goldcorp at Mines and Money Hong Kong 2013

THREE FACTORS HAVE THE GREATEST IMPACT ON PRICE

7

Private Investment Demand is the Determining Factor

Private investmentPhysical demand has grown steadily, especially in emerging markets

Shorter term speculative demand is quite volatile and sensitive to:Real interest ratesMarket uncertainty or volatilityInflation expectations

Central banksCentral banks in developing countries have been increasing gold reserves

JewelleryJewellery demand in tonnage terms has decreased over the past decade but continues to increase in dollar terms due to emerging market demand

Page 8: Gold Mining: Delivering on the Sector’s Potential in 2013' by Chuck Jeannes, Goldcorp at Mines and Money Hong Kong 2013

8 Source: World Gold Council.

CENTRAL BANKSWith Increases in Gold Price, Growth in Money Supply - Reserves Are Still Low

1970

1971

1972

1973

1974

1975

1976

1977

1978

1979

1980

1981

1982

1983

1984

1985

1986

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

28,000

30,000

32,000

34,000

36,000

38,000World Offical Gold Reserves

Tonn

es

Page 9: Gold Mining: Delivering on the Sector’s Potential in 2013' by Chuck Jeannes, Goldcorp at Mines and Money Hong Kong 2013

GOLD & SILVER RETURNS - US REAL INTEREST RATESLow Real Interest Rates Correlate to High Gold & Silver Prices

Source: Deutsche Bank, Bloomberg.

Gold & Silver Returns in Different US Real Interest Rate Environments

9

Page 10: Gold Mining: Delivering on the Sector’s Potential in 2013' by Chuck Jeannes, Goldcorp at Mines and Money Hong Kong 2013

HIGHER INFLATION …. WHEN?Expansion of Money Supply will eventually have Consequences

In 2013 – QE continues, with the US Federal Reserve openly committed to open-ended bond purchases through 2015

No end in sight until the Fed sees “substantial improvement in the outlook for the labour market”

The benchmarking of QE to employment seen by many as “uncontrolled” expansion of money supply

10

Page 11: Gold Mining: Delivering on the Sector’s Potential in 2013' by Chuck Jeannes, Goldcorp at Mines and Money Hong Kong 2013

YOU CAN’T PRINT MORE GOLD...

11

Strong Correlation between Growing Money Supply and Higher Gold Price

Source: Bloomberg data Jan. 12, 2012 – Mar. 4, 2013

1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

1,800

2,000M1 Gold

US

M1

Mon

ey S

uppl

y ($

Billi

ons)

Gol

d Pr

ice

(US$

/oz)

Page 12: Gold Mining: Delivering on the Sector’s Potential in 2013' by Chuck Jeannes, Goldcorp at Mines and Money Hong Kong 2013

US FEDERAL DEBT AND GOLD PRICEUS Debt Levels will Continue to Grow

Source: U.S Office of Mgmt & Budget, Bloomberg, BMO CM

Massive Debt Burden Supports Gold Long Term

12

Page 13: Gold Mining: Delivering on the Sector’s Potential in 2013' by Chuck Jeannes, Goldcorp at Mines and Money Hong Kong 2013

FROM 2012 TO 2013

13

$ pe

r oun

ce

Source: Bloomberg data Jan. 12, 2012 – Mar. 12, 2013

Key Drivers of Gold Price Volatility in 2012:

Fed quantitative easing

Economic uncertainty in Europe

Another Year of Volatile Gold Price Performance?

Jan-12 Mar-12 May-12 Jul-12 Sep-12 Nov-12 Jan-13 Mar-131,400

1,450

1,500

1,550

1,600

1,650

1,700

1,750

1,800

1,850

Page 14: Gold Mining: Delivering on the Sector’s Potential in 2013' by Chuck Jeannes, Goldcorp at Mines and Money Hong Kong 2013

GOLD STOCKS – WHY THE UNDERPERFORMANCE?

Page 15: Gold Mining: Delivering on the Sector’s Potential in 2013' by Chuck Jeannes, Goldcorp at Mines and Money Hong Kong 2013

15

The graph below highlights the multiple contraction of senior gold producers over recent years (as P/NAV

Source: Canaccord Genuity.

DECLINING VALUATIONS OF GOLD COMPANIESSenior/Intermediate Historical Price to Net Asset Value Multiple

$300

$500

$700

$900

$1,100

$1,300

$1,500

$1,700

$1,900

0.50

0.70

0.90

1.10

1.30

1.50

1.70

1.90

2.10

Spot

Gol

d (U

S$/O

z)

P/N

AV

Mul

tiple

(5%

/Spo

t)

Spot Gold US$/Oz

Sr./Int. P/NAV Multiple

P/NAV Avg. - 1 STDEV

Page 16: Gold Mining: Delivering on the Sector’s Potential in 2013' by Chuck Jeannes, Goldcorp at Mines and Money Hong Kong 2013

GOLD STOCKS HAVE UNDERPERFORMED GOLD

16

Gold Price +358%

Peers*+75%Philadelphia Gold / Silver Index+75%

Goldcorp+161%

Dow Industrials +68%

* Peers include: Barrick, Newmont, Kinross and Agnico Source: Bloomberg data Jan. 1, 2003 – Mar. 12, 2013

Positive Absolute Returns but Lagging Gold Price Performance

2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013-30%

70%

170%

270%

370%

470%

Page 17: Gold Mining: Delivering on the Sector’s Potential in 2013' by Chuck Jeannes, Goldcorp at Mines and Money Hong Kong 2013

REASONS FOR GOLD STOCK UNDERPERFORMANCE

17

All of the Factors can be Positively Addressed

Cost inflation has limited expected margin growth

Lack of new discoveries and real reserve growth

Poor capital allocation decisions/company missteps

Page 18: Gold Mining: Delivering on the Sector’s Potential in 2013' by Chuck Jeannes, Goldcorp at Mines and Money Hong Kong 2013

COST INFLATION

18

Total Capex

Gold Price

Total Cash Cost

All in Cost

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1,000

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

2000

Bas

e =

100

Total Capex Gold Price Total Cash Cost All in Cost

2012 CAGR

20%

16%

11%

15%

Total Capex = development + sustaining capital expendituresAll in Costs = total cash cost + development capex + sustaining capex + exploration cost

Source: Bloomberg, Scotiabank GBM

Cost Increases Nearly Equivalent to Rise in Gold Price

Page 19: Gold Mining: Delivering on the Sector’s Potential in 2013' by Chuck Jeannes, Goldcorp at Mines and Money Hong Kong 2013

COST INFLATION

2.3%

2.8%

4.3%

1.7%1.0%

3.0%

19

Significant Portion of Cost Inflation is Avoidable

Components of all-in cost 1 inflation for C90 producer

Mine conditions decline

Recovery decline

Grade decline

Mine real site inflation

USD weakness

CPI

Nominal geological inflation2

Nominal cost inflation

1 Costs include depreciation and sustaining capex, but not growth

2 Estimated based on study of total factor productivity in Australia and Canada, which showed average geological inflation of 3–3.5% over 30 yearsSource: McKinsey Mining Practice, GFMS

2001-11

BASED ON CANADA AND AUSTRALIAN MINE SAMPLE

15.1%

Page 20: Gold Mining: Delivering on the Sector’s Potential in 2013' by Chuck Jeannes, Goldcorp at Mines and Money Hong Kong 2013

text

ALL- IN COST REPORTING

20

I M P R OV E D C A S H C O S T D I S C LO S U R E

By-product cash costs Current metrics do not capture all expenditures key to analyzing a company’s profitability

More complete picture of industry profitability to stakeholders

More effective correlation to current gold equity valuation

Working towards a consistent, industry-wide standard

textSustaining capital

textCorporate general and administrative expense

textExploration expense

What’s included: Why?

Page 21: Gold Mining: Delivering on the Sector’s Potential in 2013' by Chuck Jeannes, Goldcorp at Mines and Money Hong Kong 2013

EXPLORATION INVESTMENT HAS NOT GENERATED DISCOVERY EXCITEMENT

21

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

Gold discovered in deposits of +1moz reservesor +2moz resourcesMoz

Total explorationspending1

Billions

20111009080706050403020120001999

Discovery Exploration

CAGR

23% p.a

-28% p.a

Growth in exploration spending

Growth in discoveries

Source: Lassonde, MEG

Gold Discovered in Large Deposits has Declined while Exploration Spending has Increased

Page 22: Gold Mining: Delivering on the Sector’s Potential in 2013' by Chuck Jeannes, Goldcorp at Mines and Money Hong Kong 2013

GOLDCORP – HOW WILL WE CHANGE THE PARADIGM?

Page 23: Gold Mining: Delivering on the Sector’s Potential in 2013' by Chuck Jeannes, Goldcorp at Mines and Money Hong Kong 2013

CHALLENGES FACING THE GOLD INDUSTRY

23

DELAYED FCF

Missed guidance Revamped planning and forecasting

Lack of growth

Poor capital allocation decisions

Operating cost escalation

Quality reserve growth Only N.A. senior with YoY growth

Operating for Excellence

A CLEAR PATH TO FCF

Disciplined M&A and divestitures No writedowns

GoldcorpIndustry

Page 24: Gold Mining: Delivering on the Sector’s Potential in 2013' by Chuck Jeannes, Goldcorp at Mines and Money Hong Kong 2013

CONSISTENT STRATEGIC FOCUS

24

Peer-Leading Balance Sheet

Responsible Mining

Practices

Low Political

RiskTOGETHER CREATING

SUSTAINABLE VALUE

Quality Growth

Cost Management

Page 25: Gold Mining: Delivering on the Sector’s Potential in 2013' by Chuck Jeannes, Goldcorp at Mines and Money Hong Kong 2013

ALL- IN SUSTAINING CASH COSTS

Goldcorp Barrick Kinross Newmont0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

By-product cash cost All-in sustaining cash cost

US$

/oz

25

Goldcorp is the Lowest Among its Peers

As of Dec. 31, 2012

Page 26: Gold Mining: Delivering on the Sector’s Potential in 2013' by Chuck Jeannes, Goldcorp at Mines and Money Hong Kong 2013

COMMITMENT TO COST CONTAINMENT

Operating for ExcellenceA GLOBAL INITIATIVE

26

Page 27: Gold Mining: Delivering on the Sector’s Potential in 2013' by Chuck Jeannes, Goldcorp at Mines and Money Hong Kong 2013

ROBUST DEVELOPMENT PIPEL INE

CAMINO ROJO (SULPHIDES)

PEÑASQUITO UG

El MORRO U/G

CAMINO ROJO (OXIDES) (2016)

EL MORRO

AGUA RICA

CERRO BLANCO

CERRO NEGRO (2013)

ÉLÉONORE (2014)

COCHENOUR (2015)

PUEBLO VIEJO (2012)

PEÑASQUITO (2010)

LOS FILOS (2008)

MARLIN (2006)

RED LAKE & OTHER OPERATING MINES*

SCOPING

FEASIBILITY

CONSTRUCTION

PRODUCTION

Quality Production Growth

* PORCUPINE, MUSSELWHITE, EL SAUZAL, ALUMBRERA, MARIGOLD, WHARF

27

Page 28: Gold Mining: Delivering on the Sector’s Potential in 2013' by Chuck Jeannes, Goldcorp at Mines and Money Hong Kong 2013

5 YEAR PRODUCTION GUIDANCE

2012A 2013E 2014E 2015E 2016E 2017E

2.4

2.55 - 2.8

3.2 - 3.5

3.5 - 3.83.8 - 4.0

4.0 - 4.2

28

Gold production (Moz)

Increasing Production ~70%

Realistic, Achievable Growth Profile

Page 29: Gold Mining: Delivering on the Sector’s Potential in 2013' by Chuck Jeannes, Goldcorp at Mines and Money Hong Kong 2013

LOW CAPITAL INTENSITY PROJECTS

(as at Dec. 31, 2012)

SPENT COMMITTED OUTSTANDING

$3.1B

$0.4 B

$2.0B

Capital Spending for Projects Contributingto 5-Year Growth Profile

LOW CAPITAL COST / OZ OF <$240* Contributing to 5-year growth: Pueblo Viejo, Cerro Negro, Éléonore, Cochenour and Camino Rojo 29

Strong Acquisitions Lead to High Quality Projects

Page 30: Gold Mining: Delivering on the Sector’s Potential in 2013' by Chuck Jeannes, Goldcorp at Mines and Money Hong Kong 2013

SUCCESSFUL CAPITAL ALLOCATION STRATEGY

30

Barrick Newmont Kinross Goldcorp-10%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

2012 2011 2010 2009 2008 2007

* Barrick includes losses on capitalized gold contracts

5 Year Impairment Losses as a % of Current Book Equity

Page 31: Gold Mining: Delivering on the Sector’s Potential in 2013' by Chuck Jeannes, Goldcorp at Mines and Money Hong Kong 2013

STRONG CASH FLOW GROWTH (‘13E – ‘15E)

31Source: Bloomberg consensus (as of Mar. 12, 2013) Dollar figures are cash flow per share estimates 2013E – 2015E

Quality Production Growth Translates into Increasing Cash Flow

Kinross Newmont Barrick Yamana Agnico Goldcorp

-8%

-1% 8%14% 16%

51%

2013E 2014E 2015E

$3.13

$4.26 $4.73

Page 32: Gold Mining: Delivering on the Sector’s Potential in 2013' by Chuck Jeannes, Goldcorp at Mines and Money Hong Kong 2013

RETURNING SHAREHOLDER VALUE

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013E

$0.18 $0.21

$0.41

$0.54$0.60

32

Dividend ($ per share)Dividend up 233% since 2009Dividend ($ per share)1

1Dividend increases (annual): Oct. 27, 2010 - $0.36/share; Feb. 24, 2011 - $0.40/share; Dec. 5, 2011 - $0.54/share; Jan. 7, 2013 - $0.60/share2Source: Bloomberg consensus (as of Mar. 12, 2013)

KGC ABX AUY GG NEM

11%14% 14%

19%

25%

10%12% 12%

14%

21%

2013E 2014E

Dividend as % of Operating Cash Flow2

Significant return of capital to shareholders

Consistent Dividend Growth

Page 33: Gold Mining: Delivering on the Sector’s Potential in 2013' by Chuck Jeannes, Goldcorp at Mines and Money Hong Kong 2013

33

ALLOCATION OF FREE CASH FLOW

Fund existing 70% growth

profile

Invest in high return organic

growth

Flexibility for selective

M&A

Regular dividend growth

Management’s Most Important Decisions

Page 34: Gold Mining: Delivering on the Sector’s Potential in 2013' by Chuck Jeannes, Goldcorp at Mines and Money Hong Kong 2013

CONCLUSIONS

34

Charting the Path towards Long Term Success

The gold bull market is far from over

Gold equities can outperform gold price

Quality growth, cost containment and disciplined capital allocation will determine the winners in this market

Page 35: Gold Mining: Delivering on the Sector’s Potential in 2013' by Chuck Jeannes, Goldcorp at Mines and Money Hong Kong 2013

MARCH 21, 2013Mines & Money Hong Kong

STRATEGY.DISCIPLINE.EXECUTION.

Page 36: Gold Mining: Delivering on the Sector’s Potential in 2013' by Chuck Jeannes, Goldcorp at Mines and Money Hong Kong 2013

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