gold oil projected-an islamic revolution is it on time 01-30-2011

8/6/2019 Gold Oil Projected-An Islamic Revolution is It on Time 01-30-2011

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A r m s t r o n g ~ c o n o m i c sForecasting the World

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An IslamicRevolution

Is i t on TIME?

By: Martin A. Armstrong Copyright All R ights Reserved January 30th, 2011P lease Reg is te r f o S ~ e c i a l Updates At A r m s t r o n g E c Q n Q m i c . ~ . C O M


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Copyright Martin A. Armstrong All R igh ts ReservedThis R e p o r ~ may be, forwarded as you like w ~ t ~ o u t charge to individuals ,or governments around theworld. It is provided as a Public Service at this time without cost because of the critical factsthat' we now faced e c o n o m i c a l l ~ . The contents and'designs of the systems'are in fact copyrighted.

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ACKNOWLEDGEMENTSI would ~ i k e to thank a ll the f o r m ~ r employees, associates, sources, and contactsfor "their ongoing supportan.d efforts to contribute to th e writings I have beenable to continue" through their great efforts. I would also lik e. to thank thosewho have looked after not Just myself, but my family, and shown them sUPP9 t t andkindness.

The purpose of these reports is to broden th e understanding that is so vitalto our personal survival. Government cannot save us, and will only assist-the veryeconomic disaster we face. This is a Sovereign Debt Crisis that threatens our coresurvival. There is no plan to ever payoff debts. The majority of debt increase ispaying interest perpetually to rol lover without any long-term plan. What you seein Greece and in the States, we have run out of other people's money. The socialistskeep pointing to the rich. But to fund the deficits , we need to borrow now fromforeign lands. We ran out of money domestically and to support th e current systemlike Greece, we need foreign capital. Eut a l l governments are facing the same crisisand we are on the verge of another Widespread government default. Adam Smith warnedin his Wealth of Nations that in 1776, no government'paid off their debt and hadalways defaulted. We will have no choice either .

There is no hope that polit icians will save us, for they only form committees'to investigat af ter the shit-hits-the-fan. They will NOT risk their care er fo r afuture problem that may hit on someone else 's watch. There was a politician and aaverage man standing on top of th e Sears' Tower when a gust of wind blew them off.The average man being a realistic-pessimist, immediately sees he is about to dieand begins praying. The politicians, the ult imate op timis t, can be heard saying"Well so far so good!" as he passes the 4th floor.At Princeton Economics, our mission was simply to gather global data and tobring that together to c rea te the world's largest and most comprehensive computersystem and model that would monitor the world capital flows. By c reat ing tha t model,

a l l the fallacies pf market and economic theories were revealed. The world is farmore dynamic and every change even in a distant land can al ter the course o f theglobale economy. Just as has been shown with the turmoil in Greece, a CONTAGIONtakes place and now capital begins to look around at a l l countries. We can no morecomprehend the future bu t looking only at domestic issues today than we can do soin every other area, such as disease and the spread of flus.We l ive in a NEW DYNAMIC GLOBAL ECONOMY where capital rushes around fleeingpolit ical changes and taxes just as i t is attracted by prosperity. All the peoplewho migrated to the United States in the 19th and 20th Centuries, came fo r the samereasons as those s t i l l coming from Mexico - jobs and prosperity. In the 19th CenturyAmerica was said to have so much wealth, i ts streets were paved in gold. We must nowlook to both the past and the entire world to understand where we now are today,


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An Islamic Revo1nt ionIs i t on TIME?

By: Mart in A. ArmstrongFormer Chairman of Princeton Economics International, Ltd.

and the Foundation For The Study Of Cycles

RE we looking at a PROTESTANT REFORMATION in Islam? Oneof th e primary reasons Why the Protestant Reformation wClSeagerly supported by kings and merchants, was that theywere abolishing the SIN OF USURY and that meant that nowChristians could become bankers without r isk of violatingre lig ious p r inciples . The Protestant Reformation was foughtfor a lo t of different reasons in the minds of many, buteconomically, i t was profitable to break away from the Churchfor those who sought to be bankers in the open to compete with th e Jewish pawnbrokers.This eventua ll y l ed to a c las s d is ti nc tion between Protestants and Catholics. Theformer were now merchant-bankers able to ' engage in banking to both borrow andlend. The f i r s t exchange was constructed in Amsterdam. The Catholics were forbiddento borrow or lend. Thus, the leverage of a debt society took hold within theProtestant nations and they prospered rapidly. The Cathol ic nations lagged behindand thus northern Europe was exploding with economic innovation, while the southernEuropean nations languished in poverty. Catholics became a second-grade class.

"PROTESTANT" meant someone wo had then:protested. What we ?re start ing to see inIslam i s not much different from the realeconomic dri ving force that sp l i t Christiansstart ing in 1380 with the r ise of Englishreformer John Wyc1iffe who translated th eBible into Eng li sh . Thi s was about the samet ime f rame, 1380 years, that have passedsince the deaEhQ'f I M ~ h a m m a d i n Q - ~ 2 M J . Tbe: ..r iots b a . g ~ n . i n Iran, then in Tunisia, andnow Egypt. These are ALL Economicrdriven!

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There are o t h e ~ differences in Islamsuch as extreme r ight and l e f t wings jus tas there are within Christianity and JudismThese extremes are a concern in a ll majorrel igions. Economics is also a very key facCatholics were in fact at f i r s t forbiclaen .to borrow or lend at profi t that s U ~ 9 ~ d j n a tthem to Protestants. Here we have unemploymthat i s th e d riv ing force behind the r iotsprotests . Yet, government is defending i t se.. shutt;.in& down the internet that the US inte


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T.O enact_the very s a m ~ p o w e r ~ What we mustreal ize is that government, no matter whati t s fo rm, a lways gravitates toward i t s ownse l f - in terest of maintaining power. Therei s always this trend and Mubarak came topower in Egypt with the peak of the majorEconomic Confidence Model back in 1981 ofthe las t Public Wave 51 . 6 years.We are similarly plagued by the facttha t senators and congressmen once they getth at ta ste of power, jus t never want toleave. Mubarak has placed his own personal

se l f - in terest above those of the people andcannot see anything that they are protestingabout as his fault .The Ar-ab World i s facing a r isingyouth who were much l ike the CatholiCs intha t they have become second-class ci t izens

thanks to religion. The extremists havecas t a dark cloud over the i r culture andthis has caused them to be painted by asingle brush. Just as th e Vandals of northAfrica who sacked Rome taking the copperfrom the roofs l e f t a legacy that someoneeven 1600 years la ter who destroys a placei s called vandalism.

However, f rom t he out sid e looking in ,Americans are seen a s a rrogant, prudish, andimperial . Ashcroft, former Attorney Generalunder Bush, had draped the bronze statue ofJust ice in Washington because her barebreasts offended him. I f Ashcroft was inpower in Europe, he would have destroyedmost statues and paintings because of the i rnudity. I t is people like th at and theJanet Jackson incident that causes Americato be painted with a single brush as beingprudish and religious extremists within theChristian world.

Of course, painting any people w ith asingle brush i s never really possible. St i l l ,the rising rebellion in the Arab World isvery important. I t i s no doubt quite cr i t i ca lir i the economic evolution'of the world economy, that unless we look past the images, wewil l miss the significance of what i s trulydeveloping. For that same trend is start ingto surface in the United States and Europe.

The ESSENCE of economic evolution i st ied to (1) communication and (2) the trendtoward concentration. Civil ization is born

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when people come together to form a societythey are agreeing on a culture - a ways andmeans of doing things col lect ively. I t thencreates a atmosphere in which ideas flowwith trade. That is vital to the evolutionaprocess within the economy.The INTERNET has been the greatest ofa l l advancements in helping mankind reachthat next level in economic evolution. Thisi s manifesting in causing the younger geneation (THE INTERNET GENERATION) to form amuch larger global society with the freedomof ideas. This is changing the world and i tis why, government is doing i t s best to now

t ry to c on tro l what has been unleashed.The INTERNET GENERATION i s sha ring th e

most cr i t i ca l of a l l aspects essent ia l toeconomic evolution - ideas. They are ableto communicate across borders and cultureforming a culture that is a l l their own andunique.

I have often been told that I thinkdifferent ly . While I have long disagreedthat I am some sort of geniu s, from my ownperspective I have seen my thinking purelyas a product of internationalism. I havebeen a world t raveler since the age of 13.That exposure has shaped my t hink ing proceI have been exposed to both East and Westand everything in between. Thus, when I looa t the world, I see i t through many differeyes. This i s a common t ra i t of ear ly t hi nwho traveled among many before they saw thl ight so to speak. This is what th e INTERNi s doing right now. I t is allowing the newyounger generation to see the world througmany eyes. I t i s what use to tak e p lac e byt ravel . Now, the younger generation i sbeing exposed to a new global culture. InEgypt, they saw what took.place in Tunisiand saw that protest could lead to change.The youth in Iran were using Twitter tocommunicate. This INTERNET GENERATION hasthe potential to make the next leap in oureconomic evolutionary process leaving behithose who have yet figured out how to f ly .

The INTERNET is as powerful as theautomobile in i t s potential to force theeconomy into a new higher level . Unfortunate ly , th is stands in d ir ec t conf li ct withthe se l f - in teres ts of government. The futui s on t he hor izon . We can a t least see i t ,but so can government.


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The Arab youth are using American technology in the INTERNET and that i s creatinga new world that many behind the curtain ingovernment are star t ing to fear. This i s nowspreading beyond Egypt into Yemen, Jordan,and we will in fact see i t sweep throughoutthe ent ire region.

There i s some risk that the rel igiousr ig ht w ill gain power. This could indeeddestabil ize the Middle East. This will sendo i l higher and will help to keep a floor ingold a t the $1,000 level .Again, we are looking at the rel igionhas help ed to keep the Arab n ations in theeconomic backseat. This i s the same thingthat h a p p e n ~ d to the Catholics in the wakeof the Protestant Reformation. With time,the Catholics loosened their grip on thewhole SIN OF USURY thing, and gradually a

Catholic could participate within the worldeconomy along side Protestants. Today, i twould absurd to suggest that a Catholic isprohibited from buying a house on credi t orusing a credi t card.Yet th is transition s t i l l awaits manyparts of the Arab world. Countries l ike thatof Turkey are modern Islamic states who haverelaxed such res t ra in ts . This has to a largeextent helped to keep unemployment high inthe Arab world and this i s part that was the

t ip of the sword that was f i r s t revealed inthe student re be llio n in Ira n. I warned backthen that th is may be the s tar t of a trendand that the Western governments would thens ta r t to consider the way to shut down theINTERNET. That has taken place with a bi l lnow pending in the US Senate.The period ahead appears to be risingpol i t ica l tension everywhere. This i s partof the e ffe ct th at takes place when we aredealing with a SOVEREIGN DEBT CRISIS. Thisi s the root cause for Marx sold his utopian

ideas assuming somehow that i f governmentcontrolled everything, clearly, this wouldcreate a perfect world. What Marx overlookedwas that the RICH he learned to hate so verymuch, were those who also sought pol i t ica lpower.People have been quite concerned aboutGoldman Sachs. I t i s certainly no t for theirtrading, bu t for the armour they have beenable to construct by hiring so many pol i t ic-

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ians or sending their own people into keypol i t ica l positions. This i s an old t r ickadopted by the Borgia and the Medici justto name a couple. The Medici were alsobankers with poli t ical t ies . They also infact collapsed when the sovereign debtcr is is wiped them off the face of theeconomic planet.

The danger ALWAYS comes from those whosimply seek to control government and thusobtain special exempt status to gather a llthe spoils of wealth unavailable by any faimeans. These are typical of manipulatingmarkets as did Edward I I I of England ordictating to the masses by monopolies. I ti s NOT THE MERE POSSESSION OF WEALTH THATPRESENTS'! CLEAR DANGER, BUT THE DESIRE FORPOWER OVER "OTHERS THAT THREATENS THE LIBERTOF MANKIND!Religion has often been used as theopium of the masses for pol i t ica l purposes.Governments have been known to introducerel igion to further poli t ical power. EvenHenry VIII was against th e Protestant Reformation and was against Martin Luther. Hisseizure of the Catho lic Church was purelyfor pol i t ica l purposes. China also haddeliberately introduced Buddhism to helpcontrol the masses, and both Stalin andMao abolished religion fearing i t conflictewith the state goals. Therefore, religionhas been both a tool to subdue the peopleas well as on to enflame them.The economic decline and tension causefrom the SOVEREIGN DEBT CRISIS that has beeset in motion from 2007, is by no means oveno matter what the TV says. They will s t i l lspeak the party l ine and say a ll i s baCK ont rack, but we are in a period of seriouseconomic chaos. I l t inois i s raising taxessignificantly rather than reform. Peopleare leaving New Jersey and with the samesize home, find they have $15,000 less in

taxes by moving to New Hampshire. Fa r toomany states have followed t h ei r s e lf - in t er eand taxed the people to death for they justseize their assets and homes i f they do notpay whatever tax they demand.The economic tension in Socialism i sspreading with collateral damage to the resof the third world. What we are now watchin

i s the r ise of a younger generation that i sat las t saying enough i s enough!


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CRUDE OIL

Crude Oil ~ a come back to tes t the $100level that i s cr i t i ca l . This is about thetop of the 1998 Breakout Channel. As I havemade clear over the years, there are ALWAYSthree channel constructions from each majorturning point. Here I have shown th e longes twith the shortest being the EXTREME versionthat provided the high quite nicely. The 3rdchannel i s the 1998-2001 UPTREND CHANNEL. I twas this channel that provided the supportthe 2009 Crash. Bloomberg News had coveredour forecast at Princeton when o il fe l l to$10.35 on December 21st, 1998, that i t wouldral ly then to t es t the $100 by 2007. Whentha t forecast was put out, i t seemed quiteimpossible at that time. But that is thedifference between opinion and projections.

Here in 2011, the $85-77 level is thecr i t i ca l pivot point. We need to see a closeabove $105 on a monthly level to signal wecould see a sustained ral ly with the to p ofthe 1998 Breakout Channel becoming support.A monthly closing ABOVE $100 will also bepositive for now. This is NOT basis theBrent, bu t basis NYC. There are differentnumbers altogther in each market that is aimportant dist inct ion.

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....t ; . :+t- I t

The ral ly from early 2007 was preciselya 17.2 month ral ly into the major high. As2011 is shaping up, the important turningpoints in t ime appear to be May/June andOctober/November. On an annual basis, i ts t i l l appears t ~ a t we should see a 17.2 yeahigh from the 1998 low. That places us alsoin alignment with the 2015.75 turning pointon the next 8.6 year Wave that s tar ts thiscoming June.With the uprlslngs acro ss th e Arabworld, this i s far from over. We are morel ikely than not going to see real poli t icaltension in this part of the wor ld going into2015.75 and this s e ~ m s l ikely to be a biginfluence in the o il market; We may indeedsee crude o il well above $200 for the nextmajor high due in 2015.75.From this perspective, th is $100 levelis very cr i t i ca l , I f we get above i t andthis becomes support, then doing this atthe s ta r t of the next 8.6 year wave wouldtend to imply o il will even get above $300by 2015.75. However, keep in mind that weare in the midst of a debt cr is i s and thatis l ikely to cause the dollar to declinelong-term relat ive to a l l tangible assetsin general with the worst being re al e sta te

gold oil projected-an islamic revolution is it on time 01-30-2011

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