good enron fraud paper
TRANSCRIPT
Electronic copy available at: http://ssrn.com/abstract=1691830
Mahama Wayo
The Collapse of Enron Corporation: FraudPerspective
Electronic copy available at: http://ssrn.com/abstract=1691830
SMC Working Papers Mahama Wayo
July 16, 2010 2
Contents
SWISS MANAGEMENT CENTER UNIVERSITY
The Collapse of EnronCorporation: FraudPerspectiveMahama Wayo
(0001870-01)
July 16, 2010
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ABSTRACT
The paper examines the red flags that might have signaled the collapse of Enron Corporation which
an astute reader should have noted. Various financial models that can detect earnings manipulation
and inflation of assets and revenues have been applied in this examination. The paper links the
collapse of Enron to the massive manipulation of earnings, some of which was carried out by the use
of activities of Special Purpose Entities (SPEs).
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THE COLLAPSE OF ENRON CORPORATION: A FINANCIAL PERSPECTIVE
1.0 INTRODUCTION
Enron Corporation was formed in 1985 by Kenneth Lay. This was after the merger of Huston Natural Gas
and InterNorth. The company was based in Houston, Texas. Enron originally was involved in transmitting
and distributing electricity and natural gas throughout the United States. The company was engaged in
developing, building and operating power plants and pipelines within the legal framework. It owned a large
network of natural gas pipelines that stretched from borders to borders including Northern Natural Gas,
Florida Gas Transmission, Transwestern Pipeline Company and a partnership in Northern Border Pipeline
from Canada. Enron ventured into water in 1998 by creating Azurix Corporation. It was also engaged in
communication, pulp and paper production.
Enron was the seventh largest Company in the Unites States of America and was named “America’s Most
Innovative Company” by “Fortune Magazine” for six consecutive years, from 1996 to 2001. Enron’s sterling
performance pushed its stock price to $83.19 by December 31, 2000. The stock increased by 56% in 1999
and a further 87% in 2000, compared to a 20% increase and a 10% decline for the index during the same
years. The company filed for bankruptcy protection in December 2001.
Unknowingly, the excellent performance of Enron was as a result of crafted fraudulent activities of the
Company’s executives. Enron’s revenues had hit $101 billion by the year 2000 and it employed about
22,000 staff. A revelation of the Enron scandal in October 2001 with its stock price dropping from $90.00 to
less than $1.00 by the end of November, 2001 caused a loss to shareholders of about $11 billion and
resulted in the investigation of the company’s operations by the U. S. Securities and Exchange Commission
(SEC). The company then filed for bankruptcy under Chapter 11 of the United States Bankruptcy Code on
December 2, 2001 in the Southern District of New York.
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1.1 ASSESSMENT OF THE FINANCIAL PERFORMANCE OF ENRON CORPORATION: 1997 TO 2000
A critical examination of the financial statements of Enron from 1997 to 2000 depicts a massive
manipulation of revenues and earnings used to sustain the company’s perceived excellent performance.
Accounting loopholes were plucked; and the use of Special Purpose Entities (SPEs) and poor financial
reporting were used to hide billions of dollars in debts from failed deals and projects. A number of Enron’s
recorded assets and profits were inflated, or even wholly fraudulent or nonexistent. Beneish (as cited in
Feroz, Park, and Pastena, 1991) indicates that manipulation becomes public on average 19 months after
the end of the fiscal year of the first reporting violation. Enron went longer! Enron violated the intent of
Generally Accepted Accounting Principles (GAAP) in its reporting system. According to McLean and Elkid in
their book “The Smartest Guys in the Room,” the Enron scandal grew out of a steady accumulation of
habits, values and actions that began years before and finally spiraled out of control.
A careful scrutiny of the financial statements of Enron suggests that from late 1997 until its collapse in
December 2001, the primary motivations from Enron’s accounting and financial transactions seemed to
have been to keep reported income and reported cash flows up, assets values inflated, and liabilities off
the books. In fact, income smoothing was at its peak in the operations of Enron, and Executives of the
company and their allies and families were those who profited while the company was going into the
doldrums.
According to Albrecht (2001), an entity’s financial statements tell a story and the story should make sense,
if not, it’s possible the story is untrue.
Enron Corporation’s financial statements for the four years ending December 31, 2000 prior to its collapse
in 2001, were comprised of massive inflation of revenues, manipulation of income and inflation of assets
whilst suppressing its debt through the use Special Purposes Entities (SPEs) located offshore.
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2.0 ANALYSIS OF ENRON CORPORATION FINANCIAL STATEMENTS
Various financial and accounting models and principles can be employed to analyze the financial
statements of a company to determine red flags, its health or whether it is manipulating income, inflating
revenues and assets, and also manipulating General Accepted Accounting Principles in its financial
reporting.
Included amongst the various models and principles are: revenue recognition policies,
converging/diverging gross margin slope analysis1, sales/accounts receivable slope analysis, Modified
Altman’s Z-score inflection point and bankruptcy analysis, Beneish’s Model for Determining Earnings
Manipulation2, Chanos’ Discriminate Function Algorithm Model3, Igor Pustylnick’s Combined Algorithm of
Detection of Manipulation in Financial Statements4, ratio analysis and other available models. Collectively,
these models signaled trouble.
2.1 REVENUE RECOGNITION
Revenue recognition criteria according Nugent (2010) include: the existence of a valid contract, assurance
of payment, the work is complete or essentially complete, and title passes between the parties. The
fulfillment of these criteria mandates the recognition of revenue within any financial reporting period.
Enron earned its profits by providing services such as wholesale trading and risk management, in addition
to developing electric power plants, natural gas pipelines, and storage and processing facilities. Service
providers, when considered as an agent, report only trading and brokerage fees as revenues as against the
merchant model which reports the total selling price as revenues and the product costs as cost of goods
sold.
1Altman, Edward I. Corporate Financial distress: A Complete Guide to Predicting, Avoiding, And Dealing with Bankruptcy. JohnWilley and Sons, 1983.
2Beneish, Messod D. The Detection of Earnings Management, 1999 Indiana University, Kelley School Of Business
3chanos, J. Discriminate Function Algorithm 2010. Algorithm Presented By Dr. John Nugent CPA, CFE, CFF, CISM, FCPA At 2010SMC Doctorate Of Finance Residency Course Vienna, Austria.
4Pustylnick I. Combined Algorithm of Detection of Manipulation in Financial Statements 2009. www.ssrn.com
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Enron, however, in contrast to practice developed an aggressive approach to reporting revenues by
adopting the merchant model where the entire value of its trade was reported as revenue instead of
process employed in the agent (fee only) model. This inflated Enron’s reported revenue astronomically
from 1997 to 2000.
Enron Corporation’s net revenues were: $20,273 million for 1997, $31,260 million for 1998, $40,112
million for 1999 and $100,789 million for the year 2000. (Source: Enron Corporation: 1998, 1999 and
2000). In percentage terms, Enron’s sales increased by 53% in 1997, 54% in 1998, 28% in 1999 and 151% in
2000, each from the previous year. Astronomical by anyone’s measure.
These increases in revenues without significant acquisitions were meteoric and resulted from the
manipulation of revenue recognition policies that Enron adopted during these reporting periods. Enron’s
revenue growth on average was 72% from 1997 to 2000. This growth was unprecedented where the
energy industry’s growth on average was 2 – 3% per year5.
Akin to the revenue recognition policies of Enron was also the fact that it adopted mark-to-market
accounting for its complex long-term contracts. Mark-to-market accounting as employed by Enron
required that once a long-term contract was signed, income was estimated as the present value of net
future cash flows. Unfortunately, due to the complex nature of Enron’s contracts, the viability of these
contracts and their related costs were difficult to estimate. In using this method, income from projects
could be recorded presently, which increased financial earnings. However, in future years, the profits could
not be included, so new and additional income had to be shown from more projects to develop additional
growth. By advancing revenues to current periods via the ‘marked to market’ Enron inflated its revenues.
For example, in July 2000, Enron and Blockbuster Video signed a 20-year agreement to introduce on
demand entertainment to various United States of America cities by year end.
5Enron Scandal. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Enron_Scandal
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After several pilot projects, Enron recognized estimated profits of more than $110 million from the deal.
When the network failed to work, Blockbuster pulled out of the contract. But Enron continued to recognize
future profits, even though the deal resulted in a loss.
2.2 GROSS MARGIN ANALYSIS
Nugent (2003) defines “gross margin as simply the difference between net sales and cost of goods or
services sold”. It measures the operational efficiency of an organization.
By employing the concept of converging/diverging gross margin slope analysis one is trying to determine if
gross margin is increasing as a percentage, or decreasing as a percentage of net sales over the reporting
period. If gross margin slope is converging with that of the net sales slope, then it implies that gross margin
is increasing as a percentage of net sales. It means that each additional sale is more profitable
operationally than the preceding sale. On the other hand, if the gross margin slope is diverging from the
net sales slope, it means that each successive sale is less operationally profitable than the preceding one.
Table 1 below indicates the sales and gross margins of Enron for the various periods under-review.
TABLE: 1
ENRON NET SALES AND GROSS MARGINS
YEAR 1997 1998 1999 2000
($ Million) ($ Million) ($ Million) ($ Million)
GROSS MARGIN 15 1,378 802 1,953
SALES 20,273 31,260 40,112 100,782
PERCENT .07 4.4 2.0 1.94
(Source: Enron Corporation 1997, 1998, 1999 & 2000).
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From the table, Gross Margin Slope Analysis can be used to determine whether Enron was becoming more
or less operationally profitable using converging/diverging slope analysis.
Chart 1
Chart 2
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Chart 4
Chart 3
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The graphs indicate the net sales lines and the gross margin lines for 1997, 1998, 1999 and 2000. It can be
seen that the gross margin lines for all the years diverged greatly from the net sales lines, which means
that Enron was not becoming operationally efficient.
Table: 2
Chart 5: ENRON GROSS MARGIN % CURVE
From the graph it can be seen that Enron’s gross margin went up in 1998 from a very low point in 1997. It
further dropped in 1999 and up in 2000 creating a “porpoising” gross margin graph (up, down, up, down).
This is an indication of earnings and revenue manipulation as discussed earlier. An analysis of this situation
should have given an earlier indication that Enron was manipulating its financials and possibly heading
towards collapse, which, eventually happened in the year 2001 when the company files for bankruptcy
protection.
ENRON GROSS MARGINS
Year Gross Margin Percentage1997 .071998 4.41999 2.02000 1.94
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From the Gross Margin Slope Analysis above, it is evident that Enron for the preceding four years prior to
its collapse in 2001 was operationally inefficient as the slopes indicated wide diverging gross margin slopes
from those of the net sales. The implication is that each successive sale was less profitable operationally
than the one preceding it in certain periods.
While diverging gross margins are the norm in competitive industries due to pricing competition, the
porpoising of gross margins is often the telltale sign the numbers are being manipulated. Moreover,
diverging gross margins in and of themselves do not tell the whole financial story since they do not take
into consideration indirect (below the line) expenses
2.3 MODIFIED ALTMAN’S Z-SCORE DISTRIMINANT FUNCTION ALGORITHM.
Altman’s Z-score for predicting bankruptcy is another model that an astute reader could have used to
analyze the financial information of Enron Corporation to determine the existence of any red flags6. The
formula was published in 1968 by Edward I. Altman which sought to predict corporate bankruptcy. The
model is a linear combination of five common business creations, weighted by co-efficient. According to
Bennett (2008), that Altman’s model is based on analyzing the financial strength of a company using five
ratios built on key numbers mainly taken from a firm’s balance sheet, along with few from the profit and
loss account.
The initial test of Altman’s Z-score was found to be 95% accurate 1 year preceding bankruptcy and 72%
accurate in predicting bankruptcy two years prior to the event, with a Type II error (false positives) of 6%,
(Altman, 1968). Each ratio is weighted to reflect its relative importance before the five ratios are added
together to generate a Z-score, usually a single digit.
6Nugent, J. Plan to Win: Modified Altman Basic Model to determine changes in scores as against absolute scores. 2003
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Altman’s Modified Z-score model is stated below (in Altman’s original bankruptcy model the decimal points
for X1 to X4 would have to be moved to places to the left for each).
Z = 1.2*X, + 1.4*X2 + 3.3*X3 + 0.6X4 + 1.0*X5, Where:
X1 = Working Capital/Total Assets
X2 = Retained Earnings/Total Assets
X3 = EBIT/Total Assets
X4 = Market Value of Equity/ Book Value of Total Debt
X5 = Sales/Total Assets
According to Altman, financially strong small to mid-sized, manufacturing companies have a Z-score above
2.99 in his bankruptcy model, whilst companies in serious trouble have Z-score below 1.81, and those with
scores in between could go either way (Altman’s basic algorithm).
Altman’s Modified bankruptcy model (shown above) is also relevant for determining inflection points.
According to Nugent (2003), inflection points are defined as “points of major change in any being, one
relative to another”. Inflection point analysis looks for changes in scores rather than the absolute score
itself. By applying a modified Altman Z score Model (changed from the Altman bankruptcy model as to
scale and intent), and applying one additional change made by Nugent relative to the weighting of the X4
factor relative to negative changes in gross margin, it can also be seen that Enron signaled trouble (an
inflection) before it entered into bankruptcy.
Working capital is the difference between current assets and current liabilities. In short, it is the capital
which a firm can use internally without acquiring additional financing to address short term liquidity.
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Earnings before interest and income tax (EBIT), or “operating profit”, it is more or less real earnings of the
firm. Retained earnings are the cumulative profitability of the firm over the years. Market Value of Equity
is the value of all outstanding company’s shares at market value at the end of the financials. Book
Value of total debt is the sum of all liabilities both current and long-term excluding equities as they are
recorded at the date of the financials. Net sales are the total sales less any other taxes and returns during
the financial year. Total Assets is the sum of long-term and short-term assets.
Nugent (2003) prefers the use of an adjusted Altman Z-score to determine inflection points relative to
negative changes in gross margins. This model lays emphasis on the weight assigned to X4 in the Altman’
algorithm concerning debt as gross margin declines. Nugent further writes that as an entity becomes less
operationally efficient, gross margins decline, the servicing of debt becomes significantly more onerous.
The adjustment is made on the weight assigned to X4 relative to negative declines in gross margins. That is
the weight is lowered as gross margins decline.
The table below indicates adjusted Altman’s Z- score based on gross margin decline.
Table 3:
Annual % Decline in Gross Margin Decline X4Weighting
of (0.6) by
X4 Value
.5% < 2% 100% 0
> 2% < 5% 200% -0.6
> 5% < 10% 300% -1.2
> 10% < 20% 600% -3.6
> 20% 1,000% -0.6
(Source: Nugent 2003)
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The explanation to this table is that the percentage decline in gross margin is shown in the first column.
Nugent (2003) indicates that once gross margin declines, it may require a reduction in X4 factor weighting,
Nugent states such a reduction is weight is needed because the servicing of debt becomes more onerous
as gross margin declines. The negative weighting in one period once required, is carried forward to future
periods until improvement in gross margin is made or there is the need for a further reduction.
Table: 4
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000(US$Mi l l ions ) (US$Mi l l ions ) (US$Mi l l ions ) (US$Mi l l ions ) (US$Mi l l ions )
Current As s ets 4,113.00 5,933.00 7,255.00 30,381.00Tota l As s ets 22,552.00 29,350.00 33,381.00 65,503.00Current Lia bi l i ties 3,856.00 6,107.00 6,759.00 28,406.00Reta ined Ea rnings 1,852.00 2,226.00 2,698.00 3,226.00Accounts Receva ble 1,372.00 2,060.00 3,030.00 10,396.00Tota l Debt 14,794.00 19,158.00 20,381.00 50,715.00W orkign Ca pi ta l 257.00 (174.00) 496.00 1,975.00EBIT 1,238.00 565.00 1,582.00 1,995.00 2,482.00Net Revenues /Sa les 13,289.00 20,273.00 31,260.00 40,112.00 100,789.00Gros s Ma rgin/Profi t 690.00 15.00 1,378.00 802.00 1,953.00Ma rket Va lue of Equi ty 6,614.00 9,509.00 32,080.00 62,523.00Sha reholders ' Equi ty 5,618.00 7,048.00 9,570.00 11,470.00Net Ca s h Flow (59.00) (86.00) 177.00 1,086.00Cos t ga s electri c i ty,meta l s a nd others 1,731.00 26,381.00 34,761.00 94,517.00Outs ta nding Sha res (innumbers )
318,297,276.00 335,547,276.00 716,865,081.00 752,205,112.00Ma rket Va lue Per Equi ty $20.78 $28.34 $44.75 $83.12
7
(Source:Enron Corporation, 1998, 1999 & 2000)
SUMMARY OF ENRON CORPORATION FINANCIAL STATEMENTS
From table 4, the gross margins and gross revenues or sales of Enron Corporation are derived as shown in
table 5 below:
7Enron Annual Report. 1997, 1998, 1999 and 2000. http://picker.uchicago.edu/Enron/EnronAnnualReport.pdf
Table 5 Enron Corporation Gross Margins and Revenues/Sales
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Year 1997 1998 1999 2000
Gross Revenue $20,273m $31,260m $40,112m $100,782m
Gross Margin $15m $1,378m $802m $1,95m
Gross Margin% 0.074% 4.4% 1.99% 1.93%
Percent Change 0 4.33% -2.41% -0.06%
From table 5, it can be inferred that Enron’s gross margins had a nose-dive in the years 1999 and a further
decline in 2000, and (therefore the X4 weighting will in reference to Table 3 be assigned -0.6 when
determining the inflection points using Adjusted Altman’s Z-score as modified by Nugent.
Computing the Z-scores using Modified Altman’s Adjusted Z-score Discriminant function algorithm.
1997
Z = 1.2 (0.1139) + 1.4 (0.0821) + 3.3 (0.0250) + 0.6 (0.4470) + 1.0 (0.8989)
Z = 1.50
1998
Z = 1.2 (0.0059) + 1.4 (0.0758) + 3.3 (0.0539) + 0.6 (0.4963) + 1.0 (1.0650)
Z = 1.64
1999
Z = 1.2 (0.0148) + 1.4 (0.0808) 3.3 (0.0597) – 0.6 (1.5740) + 1.0 (1.2016)
Z = 0.59
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2000
Z = 1.2 (0.0301) + 1.4 (0.0492) + 3.3 (0.0378) – 0.6 (1.2328) + 1.0 (1.5358)
Z = 1.03
Table 6 Enron’s Adjusted Z-scores
Year 1997 1998 1999 2000
Adjusted Z-score 1.50 1.64 0.59 1.03
Table 6 indicates Enron’s Adjusted Z-scores for 1997 to 2000. Enron’s operations had taken a nose-dive in
1999 when it’s adjusted inflection point Z-score decreased from 1.64 to 0.59 within a year. This was a
major inflection point for Enron which signifies a red flag, and, if these computations of adjusted Z- score
were made, then Enron would have realized that its operations were becoming more unprofitable.
Moreover, just as indicated above that a porpoising gross margin is usually a sign of something that is not
right, so too is a porpoising Modified Altman Z score.
The “porpoising” natures (up, down, up, down) of the adjusted Z-scores (and gross margins) were enough
indication that Enron was likely manipulating its financials and possibly heading towards difficulty if not
collapse. This is depicted in the graph below.
Chart 6. Enron’s “Porpoising” Adjusted Z-Scores Graph
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From the graph, the Z-score went up in 1998 from 1997, but fell drastically in 1999 depicting a major
inflection point and, in 2000 it went up a little. These were all indications that Enron’s operations were
likely being manipulated.
This Altman method has also a number of drawbacks. It must be used with a degree of caution when
applied to firms from different industries. Different industries have different degrees of capitalization and
different liquidity needs. It would be unreasonable to compare Z-scores of different companies from
software development industries where capitalization is relatively low, according to Pustylnick (as cited in
Nowak and Grantham 2000), with oil and gas industries, which have to capitalize all exploration and
refinery equipment and operations. Moreover, Pustylnick (as cited in Nugent, 2008), “the degree of entity
asset wealth can mitigate Altman’s time line” to bankruptcy. That is, the more asset rich an enterprise is
the more time the entity has to solve its problems by selling assets or further leveraging the enterprise.
The implication is that a Modified Altman Z-score may not show us the whole picture of the state of the
company, but only the trend of results and position. It would therefore not be realistic if one bases one’s
assumption on a company’s performance solely on a Modified Altman Z-score only. Nugent (2003)
indicates that it is important to use multiple methods in addition to a Modified Altman’s Z-score to validate
one’s findings.
2.4 COMBINED ALGORITHM OF DETECTION OF MANIPULATION IN FINANCIAL STATEMENTS
Another dimension of detecting earnings manipulation is the Combined Algorithm of Manipulation in
Financial Statements by Pustylnick. Pustylnick formulated the P-score formula which applies the variables
of Altman’s Z-score but with a change in the numerator for the X1 weight. According to Pustylnick (2009),
the P-score/Z-score approach give 82.76% chance of detecting manipulation8.
8Pustylnick, I. Combined Algorithm of Detection of Manipulation in Financial Statements. SMC University. 2009
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As indicated earlier, P-score computation is similar to Z-score but with only a slight modification in the X1.
P-score is computed using the following formula:
P = 1.2*X+1.4*X2+3.3*X3+0.6*X4+1.0*X5, where,
X1 = Shareholders Equity
Total Assets
X2 = Retained Earnings
Total Assets
X3 = EBIT
Total Assets
X4 = Marketing Value of Equity
Book Value of Total Debt
X5 = Revenue
Total Assets
According to Pustylnick (2009), that Altman Z-score is created to estimate corporate bankruptcy; and
therefore it uses two important net indicators, such as net sales (net income) and working capital which
clearly indicates the financial position of a firm in terms of its robustness and solvency. Pustylnick (2009)
indicates that according to Deloitte (2008) report on fraud over 50% of the cases of manipulation are based
on improperly recognized revenues or manipulation with non-current assets such as goodwill. P-score
formula considers this fact and better reflects the dynamics of changes in areas where fraud occurs most.
Pustylnick substituted shareholders Equity for Working Capital in X1 calculation9.
9Pustylnick, I. Combined Algorithm of Detection of Manipulation in Financial Statements. SMC University. 2009
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Computing the P-scores for Enron for 1997, 1998, 1999 and 2000 using Pustylnick’s formula above with
reference to table 4.
1997
P = 1.2(0.2491) + 1.4(0.0821) + 3.3(0.0250) + 0.6(0.4470) + 1.0(0.8989)
P = 1.66
1998
P = 1.2(0.2401) + 1.4 (0.0758) + 3.3 (0.0539) + 0.6 (0.4963) +1.0 (1.0650)
P = 1.93
1999
P = 1.2(0.2866) + 1.4 (0.0808) + 3.3(0.0597) – 0.6 (1.5740) + 1.0 (1.2016)
P = 0.91
2000
P = 1.2(0.751) + 1.4(0.0492) + 3.3 (0.0378) – 0.6 (1.2328) + 1.0 (1.5358)
P = 1.89
Table 7: Enron’s P-scores
Year 1997 1998 1999 2000
P-Score 1.66 1.93 0.91 1.89
Z-score 1.50 1.64 0.59 1.03
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From table 7 above, Enron Corporation hit a major inflection point in 1999 with a P-score value of 0.91.
This confirms Adjusted Altman Z-score of 0.59 also in 1999. However, in 2000, both Z-score and P-score
inched up but, still pointed to signs of earnings manipulation.
Chart 7 Enron’s “Porpoising” P-score and Z-score Graphs
From the graph above, both Z-score and P-score indicates a common pattern of behavior. In 1998 both
scores went up, but rather fell drastically in 1999 sending a warning of Enron having reached a major
inflection point in its operations.
1997 1998 1999 2000
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2.5 CHANOS’ DISCRIMINANT FUNCTION MODEL
Chanos’ Discriminant Function model is used to assess a company’s financial health similar to Modified
Altman’s Z-score algorithm. The model makes use of income statement and balance sheet items to
calculate the score.
Chanos’ algorithm is stated below:
Working Capital + Retained Earnings + 12 Month Trailing EBIT + 12 Month Trailing Revenues
12 Month Average Total Assets.
This algorithm assumes that twelve (12) month trailing EBIT, revenues and average total assets are the
figures stated in the financial statements for the period. The reason being that the financial statements are
constructed at the end of the year which spans for a twelve month period. (or any other selected 12 month
period for which financial information is available). In this later regard, where one would have to annualize
certain Altman metrics to run his algorithm, this is not so with the Chanos algorithm which may be applied
more easily with accumulated and available quarterly numbers for public companies.
What is found is that as Modified Altman scores increase so do Chanos’, and as Modified Altman scores
decrease, so do Chanos’. Chanos’ does not publish absolute scores like Altman; however Nugent has
informally made guesses regarding absolute Chanos’ scores. For the purpose of this paper, it is only
important to see that Chanos’ algorithm validates changes in the Modified Altman scores.
It is also interesting to note that Pustylnick’s scores trend in concert with Modified Altman’s and Chanos’.
Reference to Table 4 above which gives the summary of Enron Corporation’s financials for 1997 to 2000
and using Chanos’ algorithm, we see the scores for the four years are given below (notice again the
porpoising effect).
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Table: 8 Chanos’ Discriminant Model Scores
Year 1997 1998 1999 2000
Score 1.01 1.18 1.13 1.66
Table 8 indicates Chanos’ Discriminant Model Scores from 1997 to 2000. As seen again, the score are
porpoising.
2.6 BENEISH FRAUD STATEMENT INDICES
In examining Enron’s financial statements from 1997 to 2000 using Beneish’s fraud statement indices, we
see they reveal some level of possible financial statement manipulation. Beneish (1999), states that if
financial statement manipulations take place and the entity’s numbers surpass his manipulation means
without major acquisitions or divestitures, the likelihood of financial statement manipulation is very high.
Beneish has shown that accounting data can be used to detect earnings manipulation.
Beneish examined other indicators of financial health such as sales margins, asset quality, and time in
receivables, gross margins indicators, etc. The objective was to determine whether other parameters
included in the corporate financial reports might be used to discover manipulation in the financial
statements. Harrington (2005), indicates, that the probability of earnings manipulation goes higher with
unusual increases in receivables, deteriorating gross margins, decreasing asset quality, sales growth, and
increasing accruals. Beneish (as cited in Harrington, 2005), indicate that certain results point to where
there is most likely a problem. Feroz et al (1991), notes that manipulation becomes public on average 19
months after the end of the fiscal year of the first reporting violation.
Beneish developed a set of ratios based on empirical testing derived from the company’s financial
statements which when surpassed; indicate a likelihood of manipulation in the financial statements.
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Days’ Sales in Receivables Index=
Receivables current year/sales current year
Receivables prior year/sales prior year
This ratio measures whether receivables and revenues are in out-of-balance in two consecutive years. If
the ratio detects an abnormal rise in receivables the change might result from revenue inflation.
Otherwise, it could be a change in credit policy. This has a non-manipulation mean of 1.030.
Gross Margin Index =
(Sales prior year minus cost of goods sold prior year)/sales prior year
(Sales current year minus cost of goods sold current year)/sales current year
It is the ratio of gross margin in current year to gross margin prior year. When the gross margin index is
greater than one (1) it means that gross margins have deteriorated and management is motivated to show
better numbers. This has a non-manipulation mean index of 1.010.
Sales Growth Index = Sales Current Year
Sales Prior Year.
It is the ratio of prior year sales to current year sales.
High sales growth might not imply manipulation. However, managers are highly motivated to commit fraud
when the trend reverses. Sales growth index has a non-manipulation mean of 1.130.
Asset Quality Index = Total Assets – PP&E Current year/ Total Assets Current year
Total Assets- PP&E Prior year/ Total Assets Prior year
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Asset quality is the ratio of non-current assets other than property, plant and equipment (PP&E) to total
assets and measures the proportion of total assets for which future benefits are potentially less certain. If
asset quality index is greater than one (1), then it indicates that the firm has potentially increased its
involvement in cost deferral. This index has a non-manipulation mean of 1.040.
Total Accruals to Total Assets (TATA) Index is calculated as the change in working capital accounts other
than cash less depreciation to total assets. The index tends to look at the proportion of accruals which
represent current assets less current liabilities and depreciation to the total value of assets. The growth of
this index usually indicates that goodwill numbers in the financial statements of the company have been
tampered with.
Total Accruals to Total Assets=
Working Capital – Depreciation Current Year/ Total Assets Current year
Working Capital – Depreciation Prior Year/ Total Assets Prior year
This index has a non-manipulation mean of 0.18
Enron’s fraud statement indices for 1997, 1998, 1999 and 2000 are given below.
Table: 9 Enron Fraud Statement Indices
1997 1998 1999 2000Days’ Sales inReceivables
- 0.973 1.146 1.365
Gross MarginIndex
70.17 0.0167 2.205 1.032
Asset QualityIndex
- 1.397 1.214 2.368
Sales GrowthIndex
1.526 1.542 1.283 2.513
Total Accruals toTotal Assets
- 1.666 0.523 0.195
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Enron’s receivables and sales exceeded Beneish’s thresholds from 1999 to 2000 as the days’ sales in
receivable index had exceeded the non-manipulation mean of 1.030. There was an increase of 11% and
33% in days’ sales in receivables for 1999 and 2000 respectively over the non-manipulation mean. The
implications are that the increase could be as a result of legitimate factors such as liberalized credit policies
from one period to the next, or the company’s receivables are not properly being reported. In the case of
Enron, the receivables were not properly being reported and therefore could not be verified, hence, the
filing for bankruptcy in 2001.
In relation to gross margin index, Enron Corporation’s indices for 1997, 1999 and 2000 were greater than
one (1) indicating deteriorating gross margins. The indices for 1997 and 1999 were higher than Beneish’s is
non-manipulation mean of 1.190. The deteriorating gross margins are confirmed by the “porpoising “ (up,
down, up, down) gross margin curve.
The sales growth index of Enron averaged 1.716 over and above Beneish non-manipulation mean of 1.130
that is 52% above normal sales increase with no major acquisitions. For example, sales had increased by
151% from 1999 to 2000. Enron was creating fictitious sales and this was a sign of financial manipulation.
This index can only detect manipulation when sales have increased.
Enron Corporation inflated its assets during the period under review by capitalizing costs which could have
been written off in one financial year. The average manipulated asset quality index of Enron was 1.66
against Beneish non-manipulation mean of 1.040, which is a 60% difference.
Total accruals to total assets ratio of Enron Corporation had increased beyond the non-manipulation mean
as well. This was an indication of management’s manipulation of earnings by using its discretionary
authority of accrual policy. Enron’s accruals increased year after year whilst cash decreased. In this case,
management was attempting internally to finance its losses.
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2.7 HORIZONTAL ANALYSIS OF ENRON CORPORATION FINANCIAL STATEMENTS.
Horizontal financial statements analysis is a procedure where analysts compare ratios or line items in
financial statements over a period of time. The decision on items selected is discretional. Horizontal
analysis is highly useful for analyzing the effects of a single event on the financial statements period over
period.
In the case of Enron Corporation, the balance sheets of the year 1997, 1998, 1999 and 2000 are used for
the analysis. A comparison will be made between 1997 and 1998, while 1999 is compared to 2000. The
base figures for computation will be 1997 and 1999.
Table 10
ENRON CORPORATION HORIZONTAL ANALYSIS: 1997- 2000
1997 1998 Diffe re n ce % C h an ge s(US$M ) (US$M ) (US$M )
C ash /C ash Eq u iv ale n ts 170 111 [59] [35% ]A cco u n ts Re ce iv ab le 1,826 2,898 1,072 59%O th e rs 635 514 [121] [19% ]To tal C u rre n t A sse ts 4,113 5,933 1,820 44%W o rk in g C ap ital 254 174 80 31%Lo n g Te rm A sse ts 18,439 23,417 4,978 27%To tal A sse ts 22,552 29,350 6,798 30%C u rre n t Liab i l i tie s 3,856 6,107 2,251 50%Lo n g Te rm Liab i l i tie s 6,254 7,357 1,103 18%To tal Liab i l i tie s 14,794 19,158 4,364 29%
1999 2000 Diffe re n ce % C h an ge sC ash /C ash Eq u iv ale n ts 288 1,374 1,086 377%A cco u n t Re ce iv ab le 3,548 12,270 8,722 245%O th e rs 616 1,333 717 116%To tal C u rre n t A sse ts 7,255 30,381 23,126 319%W o rk in g C ap ital 496 1,975 1,479 298%Lo n g Te rm A sse ts 26,126 35,122 8,996 34%To tal A sse ts 33,381 65,503 32,122 96%C u rre n t Liab i l i tie s 6,759 28,406 21,647 320%Lo n g Te rm Liab i l i tie s 7,151 8,550 1,399 20%
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From Table 9 above, Enron Corporation’s cash and cash equivalents decreased by $59M, from 1997 to
1998, that is a 35% decline. Contrarily, current liabilities also increased by $2,251M which represents a 50%
increase during the period of comparison. This means Enron may not be able to settle its current liabilities
if they are called upon. This is manifested in the reduction of working capital by $80M from $254M to
$174M, for 1997 and 1998, which is 31% reduction.
Long term liabilities which are represented here as long-term debt also increased by $1,103M, which is an
18% increase. Accounts receivables increased astronomically by $1,072M, which is 59%. This is a material
increase and there is the likelihood that Enron’s accounts receivable could have been manipulated or that
policies had become too liberal. Total assets and total liabilities are just neck-to-neck in percentage terms
that is 30% and 29% respectively. Total assets increased by $6,798M while total liabilities also increased by
$4,364M.
For the period 1999 and 2000, Enron’s cash and cash equivalents increased by $1,086M, that is a leap of
377%. This seem extraordinary and for that matter possibly manipulative. Accounts receivable also went
up by $8,722M depicting a 245% increase- a much larger increase than the increase in revenues. Working
capital increased by $1,479M, which is 298% increase, while current liabilities went up by $21,647M, giving
320% increase. Total liabilities increased by $30,334M, which is 149% increase.
The implication is that Enron might be in good position to pay outstanding creditors in a timely manner
given the increase in working capital stated above.
The analysis above indicates a likely massive manipulation of balance sheet items by Enron within the
period under review. And more especially, manipulation appears to be present starting as early as 1999
and 2000.
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2.8 VERTICAL ANALYSIS OF ENRON FINANCIAL STATEMENTS
Vertical analysis reports each amount on a financial statement as a percentage of another item. It is called
vertical because each year’s figures are listed vertically on a financial statement.
Table: 11
ENRON CORPORATION VERTICAL ANALYSIS
1998 % of
Revenue
1997 % of
Revenue
Category
% Column
change
Category (US$M) (US $M)
Revenue 31,260 100 20,273 100
Cost of Goods Sold 29,882 96 20,258 99.9 (3.9)
Gross Margin 1,378 4 15 0.074 3.9
Sales, General and Administrative
Expenses
2,352 8 1,406 7 1.0
Depreciation and Amortization 827 3 600 3 0
Interest Expenses 550 2 401 2 0
2000 % of
Revenue
1999 % of
Revenue
Category
% Column
change
Category (US$M) (US$M)
Revenue 100,789 100 40,112 100
Cost of Goods Sold 98,836 98 39,310 98 0
Gross Margin 1,953 2 802 2 0
Sales, General and Administrative
Expenses
3,184 3 3,045 7.6 4.6
Depreciation and Amortization 855 0.8 870 2.0 (1.2)
Interest Expenses 838 0.83 656 1.6 (0.77)
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In Enron’s case, vertical analysis is carried on some items in the income statements with sales revenue as
the base figure. The computation spans from 1997 to 2000.
Enron Corporation’s cost of goods sold as a percentage of sales in 1997 stood at 99.9% while in 1998 it was
96% given a decrease of 3.9%. Gross margin went up by 3.9% in 1998 from a very low figure of 0.074 in
1997. This was an appreciable increase. Also a marginal one (1) percent increase in operating expenses
achieved coupled with a 3.9% reduction in cost of goods sold shows that Enron was controlling costs
effectively. Depreciation and interest expense in terms of percentage did not increase.
In 1999 and 2000, cost of goods sold stool at 98% apiece and gross margin stood at 2% respectively.
Operating expenses decreased by 4.6% likewise depreciation 0.8% from 1999 2%. In effect, there was 1.2%
decrease in depreciation comparing 1999 to 2000. Interest expense also dropped by 0.77% within the
same period.
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Table: 12
2.9 ENRON CORPORATION RATIO ANALYSES FOR 1997 – 2000
Category 2000 1999 1998 1997Current Ratio 1.07:1 1.07:1 0.97:1 1.07:1Quick Ratio /AcidTest Ratio
0.95:1 0.98:1 0.88:1 1.03:1
AccountsReceivable Turns
15 times 15.7 11.8 times -
AccountsReceivableCollection Period
24 days 22.84 days 30.50 days -
Inventory Turns 127 times 70.70 times 92 times -Total Assets toTotal Debt
1.3:1 1.63:1 1.53:1 1.52:1
Total Debt toTotal Equity
4.42:1 2.13:1 2.73:1 2.63:1
Sales to TotalAssets
1.54:1 1.20:1 1.065:1 0.90:1
Return on TotalAssets
0.015:1 0.021:1 0.024:1 -
Revenue Growth 1.51:1 0.28:1 0.35:1 -Net IncomeGrowth
0.10:1 0.27:1 5.7:1 -
AccountsPayable Turns
15.8 Times 15.3 Times 12.6 Times -
AccountsPayable PaymentPeriod
22.8 days 23.5 days 28.6 days
Net Cash FlowPer Share
$1.50 $0.30 -$0.30
Another area to detect manipulation and fraud on Enron’s financial statements is by computing some
relevant ratios. A ratio is a mathematical relation between one quantity and another. Financial ratio is a
relative magnitude of two selected numerical values taken from an organization’s financial statements.
Ratios are categorized according to the financial aspect of the business which the ratio measures. This
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categorization include liquidity ratios which measures the availability of cash to pay debts, activity ratios
measures how quickly a firm converts non-cash assets to cash assets, debt ratios looks at the firm’s ability
to repay long-term debt, and profitability ratios measure the firm’s use of its assets and control of its
expenses to generate an acceptable rate of return.
Enron Corporation’s financial ratios leave much to be desired from 1997 to 2000. The company had a
current ratio of 0.97 in 1998 and 1.07 for 1997, 1999 and 2000. Current ratio is measured as current assets
divided by current liabilities. A good measure is a ratio of 2:1 which means the company has the ability to
pay off its short-term liabilities with ease. In the case of Enron, a ratio of 1.07:1 puts the company into a
difficult position in relation to its current liabilities.
The quick ratios or acid test ratios of Enron were indicative of red flags. The ratios were 1.03:1, 0.88:1,
0.98:1 and 0.95:1 in 1997, 1998, 1999 and 2000 respectively. This ratio considers only fully or nearly liquid
assets such as short term investments, cash and collectible accounts receivable divided by current
liabilities. A quick ratio better than 1:1 is recommended. According to Nugent (2010), a better than 1:1
relationship will usually mean the entity will have not to operate “hand to mouth”.
The accounts receivable collection period of Enron when compared with the accounts payable payment
period depicts red flags in terms of the company’s ability to pay its creditors promptly or on due dates.
Whilst Enron has 24, 22.84 and 30.50 days to collect its receivables, contrarily it has 22.8, 23.5 and 28.6
days to pay its creditors within the same period. The additional days lagging on the payment could attract
interest or charges to Enron.
Enron Corporation’s inventory turns looked good with 92, 70.70 and 127 times respectively in 1998, 1999
and 2000. However, whether these translated into actual sales (and collectible receivables) and profit
leaves much to be questioned. Sales growth at Enron was so large one must question whether they were
likely fictitious given the percentage increase in sales during this period.
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Total assets to total debt ratio measures how much of a firm’s assets are financed by debt. In other words,
it measures how highly leveraged a firm’s assets are. Enron’s ratios in this regard indicated ratios of 1.3:1,
1.63:1, 1.53:1 and 1.5:1 respectively for 2000, 1999, 1998 and 1997 respectively. In this case, the firm’s
assets were highly leveraged.
Enron was highly leveraged as indicated in the debt-to-equity ratio. It is measured as total debt to total
equity and how much of a company’s assets are financed by debt. Enron had debt-to equity ratios of
2.63:1, 2.73:1, 2.13:1 and 4.42:1 for 1997, 1998, 1999 and 2000 respectively. The company was highly
leveraged despite the fact that some of these debts were hidden in the Special Purpose Entities (SPEs)
located off shore. This is a serious red flag as it increased the financial risk of Enron Corporation.
Enron’s assets did not generate the desired sales revenue as shown by the ratios of sales to total assets.
The sales to total assets ratio is measured as sales divided by total assets. The ratios of 0.90:1, 1.065:1,
1.20:1 and 1.54:1 respectively for 1997, 1998, 1999 and 2000. This is confirmed by the revenue growth
ratios of 0.35:1, 0.28:1 and 1.51 respectively for 1998, 1999 and 2000 and, the net income growth ratios of
5.7:1, 0.27:1 and 0.10:1 for the same period. Another confirmation is the return on total assets ratios of
0.024:1, 0.021:1 and 0.015:1 for 1998, 1999 and 2000. These ratios indicate performance difficulties at
Enron Corporation.
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3.0 EVALUATING ENRON’S FINANCIAL PERFORMANCE USING IBE, CFO, CI AND FCF
Enron’s financial performance took a bad turn commencing in 1997. Four financial indicators widely used
to evaluate a company’s performance are:
i. Income Before Extraordinary Items and Discontinued Operations (IBE);
ii. Cash flow from Operations (CFO);
iii. Comprehensive Income (CI); and
iv. Fresh Cash flow (FCF).
Comprehensive Income is the change in owners’ equity plus dividends net of capital contributions.
Free Cash flow is measured as cash flow from operations minus net capital expenditure plus net interest
payments.
Table: 13
ENRON FINANCIAL PERFORMANCE MEASURE 1997 - 2000
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000
(US$M) (US$M) (US$M) (US$M) (US$M)
IBE 690 15 1,378 802 1,953
CFO 884 211 1,640 1,228 4,779
CI 594 67 689 314 672
FCF 20 -1,181 -265 -1,135 2,398
ENRON FINANCIAL PERFORMANCEMEASURE 1997 - 2000
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000IBE 690 15 1,378 802 1,953CFO 884 211 1,640 1,228 4,779CI 594 67 689 314 672FCF 20 -1,181 -265 -1,135 2,398
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Chart 8: ENRON CORPORATION IBE, CFO, CI AND FCF CURVES
From the graphs it can be seen that IBE, CFO, CI and FCF were close in 1996. However, in 1997 they began
diverging through to 2000. The four measures began decoupling in 1997 with Comprehensive Income (CI)
and Fresh Cash Flow (FCF) actually diverging. Catanach Jnr. and Rhoades (2003) indicated that this
decoupling indicated an early warning of the “earnings games” that Enron had begun to play in 1997. In
fact, Fresh Cash Flow (FCF) showed negative numbers from 1997 through to 1999.
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4.0 CONCLUSION
The financial statements of Enron Corporation from 1997 to 2000 depicted large amounts of manipulation
of earnings, assets and revenues. Costs were deferred from the asset quality index. Financial statement
manipulation practices by over-stepping Generally Accepted Accounting Principles (GAAP) in revenue
recognition and the non-consolidation of the Special Purpose Entities (SPEs) set up by Enron were
detectible. Again, the exchange of stock for notes from the SPEs by Enron meant that the company was
effectively borrowing from itself because the SPEs were set up by Enron and collateralized with Enron
stock.
From the write up and the analysis of Enron’s financial statements, the revenue recognition policy of Enron
was not compatible with the intent of GAAP or industry practice. Again, the Company had hit a number of
inflection points with the major one being 1999 with a Modified Z-score of 0.59 using Adjusted Altman’s Z-
score analysis. Using Beneish’s analysis of fraud statement indices the statements revealed a high
probability of earnings manipulation, with the evidence coming from Enron’s own financial statements.
Chanos’ model had indicated serious trouble for Enron from 1999 to 2000. Invariably, both horizontal and
vertical financial analysis carried-out on Enron’s financial statements pointed to a series of financial
irregularities that one could discern that the company was heading for significant operating difficulty. Ratio
analysis of the financial statements corroborated such findings with the pattern seen in the income before
extra-ordinary items (IBE), comprehensive income (CI), cash flow from operations (CFO) and fresh cash
flow (FCF).
All of these manipulations and likely fraud took place under the glaring eyes of Arthur Andersen, Enron’s
auditors and the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. It was therefore not surprising that Arthur
Andersen was charged with and initially found guilty of obstruction of justice. The onetime big auditing
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firm also collapsed after the collapse of Enron in 2001. Subsequently, Andersen was found to have not
obstructed justice in this case, but by this time the firm had already failed.
Enron’s collapse affected all its stakeholders who lost $74 billion.
It must be noted that financial statements analysis can be of great immense importance to stakeholders of
an organization. However, one should not rely on any single model or form of analysis. Rather, parties
should employ a number of proven models to discern irregularities and patterns that signal likely
problems. However, consistent and collective use of the tools discussed herein coupled with other
analytical models, should provide an early warning system that something might be remiss in an entity’s
reporting paradigm.
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July 16, 2010 38
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