government geoscience & exploring in west africa - sykes - may 2015 - curtin university /...

THE ROLE OF GOVERNMENT GEOSCIENCE AND MINERALS EXPLORATION IN THE ECONOMIC

DEVELOPMENT OF WEST AFRICA

John P. Sykes Department of Mineral & Energy Economics, Curtin University

Centre for Exploration Targeting, The University of Western Australia

The Metallogenesis, Tectonics & Surface Evolution of the West African Craton University Club, The University of Western Australia

Monday 25th of May 2015

Photo: Joshua Wright

THE PURPOSE OF DEVELOPMENT ECONOMICS THE ROLE OF GOVERNMENT GEOSCIENCE AND MINERALS EXPLORATION IN THE ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT OF WEST AFRICA

John P. Sykes | The Role of Government Geoscience and Minerals Exploration in the Economic Development of West Africa

Monday 25th of May 2015 | The Metallogenesis, Tectonics & Surface Evolution of the West African Craton Workshop | The University of Western Australia


Development economics is about catching up the rest of the world with the ‘West’

GDP nominal per capita for the world according to the 2009 data from IMF



Brief global economic history: divergence then convergence (sort of…)

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Data from Maddison (2010)

Economic development efforts should now focus on the ‘Bottom Billion’

Paul Collier divides the world into three economic units:

• OECD: Rich, developed countries, i.e. USA, Europe, Australia. • approx. ¼ world’s land; 1 billion people; $50 trillion GDP; $50,000 per capita

• Middle: Developing economies, where manufacturing export-focused ‘Big Push’ economics is allowing these countries to catch up, i.e. Brazil, Russia, India, China.

• approx. ½ world’s land; 5-6 billion people; $25 trillion GDP; $4,500 per capita

• “Bottom Billion”: Undeveloped economies, where ‘Big Push’ development strategies will not work (they’re too late) – urgent ‘alternative’ intervention required! Includes all WAXI countries. • approx. ¼ world’s land; 1 billion people; $1.5 trillion GDP; $1,500 per capita OECD: Organisation for Economic Co-

operation & Development GDP: Gross Domestic Product Data from World Bank



http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Bottom_Billion_book_cover.jpg

All the WAXI countries are in the ‘Bottom Billion’

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2013 GDP per capita (current US$) 2013 GDP per capita (rank out 190)



Data from World Bank (2015)

Not just about ‘money’: WAXI countries also low on the Human Development Index

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Human Development Index (score out of 1) Human Development Index (rank out of 187)



Data from Human Development Index (2014)

The ‘Bottom Billion’ countries are victims of a number of economic development ‘traps’

The Traps • Conflict Trap: destroys economic

activity, the longer it lasts the more entrenched groups (militias etc) have to lose

• Natural Resource Trap: linked to conflict, encourages opaque government, ‘Dutch Disease’

• Landlocked with Bad Neighbours: no access to coast for trade, economy reliant on poor/bad neighbours

• Bad Governance in a Small Country: struggle to attract foreign investment as too small to be ‘on the radar’

The Solutions • Aid: smarter, and crucially focused on

the ‘Bottom Billion’

• Military interventions: appropriate and opportunistic, with the aim of protecting democratic governments

• International charters: encouraging good governance

• Trade Policy: free trade required, but also trade preference for Bottom Billion countries

NB: countries can be stuck in multiple traps, indeed many are linked!




OVERCOMING THE NATURAL RESOURCE TRAP / CURSE THE ROLE OF GOVERNMENT GEOSCIENCE AND MINERALS EXPLORATION IN THE ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT OF WEST AFRICA




Paradoxically it seems ‘resource-rich’ countries are often the poorest

The Natural Resource Trap • Conflict: uneven local geographic

distribution of minerals encourages conflict over them

• Corruption: tax revenue not dependent on the people, reducing democratic scrutiny

• (Un-) Competitiveness: strong exchange rates & high inflation destroy non-resource parts of the economy i.e. manufacturing & services, known as ‘Dutch Disease’

Natural Resource Abundance and Economic Growth (Sachs and Warner, 1995)




Mini-Quiz: Which of these regions is ‘resource rich’ (by share of GDP from mineral rents)?

N. America, Euro etc1:

Africa, central Asia etc2:

China, Brazil etc3:

India, Indonesia etc4:

1: ‘High income’ ; 2: ‘’Low income’; 3: ‘Upper middle income’; 4: ‘Lower middle income’ as defined by the World Bank Idea from: Collier (2010); Data from World Bank (2015)

0.4%

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1.6%

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Mini-Quiz: Which of these regions is ‘resource rich’ (by total GDP from mineral rents)?

N. America, Euro etc1:

Africa, central Asia etc2:

China, Brazil etc3:

India, Indonesia etc4:


US$200 billion

US$15 billion



US$300 billion

US$75 billion

Mini-Quiz: Which of these regions is ‘resource rich’ (by GDP from mineral rents per sq. km of land)?

N. America, Euro etc1: (40% of world’s land)

Africa, central Asia etc2: (11% of world’s land)

China, Brazil etc3: (33% of world’s land)

India, Indonesia etc4: (16% of world’s land)


US$4,000 / sq. km

< US$1,000 / sq. km



US$7,000 / sq. km

US$3,500 / sq. km

Mini-Quiz: Which of these regions is ‘resource rich’ (by GDP from mineral rents per person)?

N. America, Euro etc1: (1.3 billion people)

Africa, central Asia etc2: (850 million people)

China, Brazil etc3: (2.4 billion people)

India, Indonesia etc4: (2.6 billion people)


US$155 / person

US$15 / person



US$125 / person

US$30 / person

‘Resource-rich’ countries are actually ‘resource-poor’ and ‘everything else-poor’



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The challenge then is to use mineral resources to develop a ‘diversified’ economy

Paul Collier recommends a four step process for developing a minerals economy, whilst avoiding the ‘resource trap’:

1. ‘Discovering natural assets’: find the minerals!

2. ‘Capturing the natural assets’: ensure the government gets a fair share

3. ‘Selling the family silver’: so make sure you save most of the revenues

4. ‘Investing in investing’: make sure what you do invest is done so smartly, with the aim of building a diversified economy



BUILDING A ‘RESOURCE RICH’ ECONOMY: EXPLORATION THE ROLE OF GOVERNMENT GEOSCIENCE AND MINERALS EXPLORATION IN THE ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT OF WEST AFRICA




West Africa generally has low mineral wealth & modest perceived mineral potential

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Fraser Institute 2014 Mineral Potential Index (out of 1)



Burkina Faso

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Liberia Mali

Mauritania

Niger

NB: Data point for Philippines excluded for scaling clarity. World Bank 2013 Mineral Rent per sq. km is US$20,074. Fraser Institute 2014 Mineral Potential Index is 0.59.

West Africa has divided up the mineral wealth before it has discovered it

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Performance of WAXI countries in Fraser Institute Survey 2014

High-Low Range Average

Characteristics:

• Good minerals policy

• Good bureaucracy

• Few land access issues

• Competitive taxation

BUT

• Lack of geological data

• Weak infrastructure

• Few skills

• Insecurity & instability

Data for Burkina Faso, Ghana, Guinea, Liberia, Mali, Mauritania and Niger. Senegal and Togo not included.



West Africa needs to find world class deposits to develop its mining industry



Source: Schodde & Hronsky (2006)

West Africa needs find world class deposits by exploring new areas



Source: Hronsky (2009)

Discovery history for Nickel Sulphide deposits in Western Australia.

A typical early exploration scenario: Boom and fizzle (externalities problem)

• Exploration generates minerals information – a positive externality – everyone benefits: however this is bad for encouraging exploration

Boom

• One outcome is a ‘rush’ or ‘boom’ scenario. Everyone benefits from the information associated with the first discovery, but this can lead to an ever declining industry, where marginal mines and deposits are developed at the expense of new discovery, and there is a focus on dividing up what has been discovered rather than developing the industry.

Fizzle

• No one wants to take the risk of exploring high risk locations first as they have the cost, but everyone else gets the benefit. You cannot guarantee that you will benefit from the exploration information you generate.

Nomadic herding communities, but no minerals exploration

activity Gold-rush mining region – many

artisanal miners, and small junior

‘explorers’

Capital City

Unpopulated desert – no economic activity

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1,000km

Potential iron ore?

Potential copper?



The mining industry will not ‘find the minerals’ and if it does it will be ‘unfair’

• To encourage the exploration, the ‘explorer’ needs to be able to capture the benefits from the externalities – a monopoly needs to be awarded, either private or state, BUT:

• If awarded to a private company, the government will not get a fair price, due to time asymmetry – the likelihood that the government will change the rules in the future – gets priced in to the bid for the exploration monopoly.

• For example if the expected value of the exploration ground is $500 million, any company would bid substantially less due to uncertainty about whether the government may change the rules in the future on taxation etc.




‘explorers’

Capital City


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1,000km

Potential iron ore?

Potential copper?



Nor do the West African countries have the capacity to find the minerals themselves

Remember the strengths and weaknesses of West African nations:

Strengths

• Good minerals policy

• Good bureaucracy

• Few land access issues

• Competitive taxation

Weaknesses

• Lack of geological data

• Weak infrastructure

• Few skills

• Insecurity & instability

• LACK OF CAPITAL!

Thus the typical West African country, if awarding the exploration monopoly to itself, cannot conduct the exploration effectively due to a lack of skills.




‘explorers’

Capital City


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1,000km

Potential iron ore?

Potential copper?



Government geoscience (inc. WAXI) is critical to ‘finding the minerals’ & ensuring ‘fairness’

Foreign (often aid) funded exploration programmes with the host country can therefore resolve the problem of how to ‘capture the exploration information externality’:

• Turns high risk-high return exploration into modest risk-high return exploration, as everyone now shares the externalities – this encourages the kind of greenfields exploration in new areas (i.e. the mountains and deserts in this map) that leads to world-class mineral discoveries (that pay more tax and provide proportionally larger economic benefits).

• This also means that prospecting licences attract a fair price in auction, as there are likely to be multiple competitive bids based on the new information. This means the local people benefit, as they receive a fair price for the mineral assets. Such transparency also reduces the scope for corruption, which is a net cost to society.




‘explorers’

Capital City


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1,000km

Potential iron ore?

Potential copper?



But minerals exploration does not really generate wealth: we need to build mines!

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Estimated value of a typical medium sized open pit gold mine

4Moz gold deposit

150,000oz/year

15 year mine life

Total project value = US$390 million

Total project economic costs = US$4.8 billion

NB: project value is then shared between company,

financiers and government!



Resource to reserve

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losses

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costs

BUILDING A ‘RESOURCE RICH’ ECONOMY: DEVELOPMENT THE ROLE OF GOVERNMENT GEOSCIENCE AND MINERALS EXPLORATION IN THE ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT OF WEST AFRICA




Building mines is another challenge in itself for governments and the private sector

I would suggest an extra stage in Paul Collier’s framework:

1. ‘Discovering natural assets’: find the minerals!

2. ‘Developing natural assets’: build the mines! 3. ‘Capturing the natural assets’: ensure the government

gets a fair share

4. ‘Selling the family silver’: so make sure you save most of the revenues

5. ‘Investing in investing’: make sure what you do invest is done so smartly, with the aim of building a diversified economy



Building some mines is either than building other mines



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Typical Capital Cost of an ‘Average’ Mine (US$M)

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Typical Capital Cost of a World Class Mine (US$B)

Some of the easiest minerals to discover (gold, silver, diamonds etc) are also the easiest to develop into mines:

• Low capital costs

• Minimal infrastructure requirements

• Known processing technology

You also cannot build an economy on small mines in small commodity markets

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• The easiest mines to develop have low barriers to entry, so often do not generate much economic impact – small and marginally profitable.

• But the best projects, with high barriers to entry – big iron ore, coal and copper mines – remain out of reach.

• The large infrastructure developments required are not possible until these countries have developed more broadly.

• In addition, to develop multiple mines in a country, they need to be in large commodity market – there are few large niobium mines around the world, but many large copper mines – some countries (i.e. Chile, Peru, USA) have multiple large copper mines.

Government geoscience (inc. WAXI) also helps build mines!

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• To build a significant mining industry countries need to move from small markets to big markets – coal, iron ore, copper etc

• And from small mines to world class mines

• WAXI (and similar programmes) therefore has an important role in finding the right minerals and projects first – low barrier to entry world class deposits in gold, diamonds etc that are easy to build.

• Then move onto higher barrier to entry industries such as iron ore, copper, coal etc which are more profitable overall.

Government geoscience (inc. WAXI) also helps build mining economies!

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• WAXI is obviously involved in Paul Collier’s first stage of developing a minerals economy (discovering natural assets), but WAXI is also important in the second stage (capturing natural assets).

• Effective government geoscience programmes build the capacity of both the host government and workforce, so that the future industry is competently administered.

• Moving from small projects to large projects also helps develop skills and capacities further down the policy chain (Collier steps 2-4) by ‘practicing’ on smaller mines and projects first, before moving onto ‘mega-projects’. In a more advanced, diversified and larger economy, these mega-projects are also relatively smaller, so become less of a political issue.

Building mines also finds more minerals as perceived project risk is lowered

Minerals resources can be ‘discovered’ two ways:

1. Physically discovering new deposits,

2. Establishing a better mining industry and more stable, economically developed, infrastructure-rich country, such that risk premiums are lowered and companies become more willing to invest in marginal projects, and marginal mine expansions, as is the case in Australia, Canada etc.

NB: But remember you still have to discover the world class deposits first, before you can benefit from their growth, expansion and positive externalities (infrastructure, skills etc)



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CRU Group Country risk premiums relative to the USA for mining investments (2010)

Source: CRU Group (2012)

Building mines also finds more minerals as more resources are discovered after mining



Source: Mudd, Weng & Jowitt (2013)

THE NEXT STEP: BUILDING A DIVERSIFIED ECONOMY THE ROLE OF GOVERNMENT GEOSCIENCE AND MINERALS EXPLORATION IN THE ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT OF WEST AFRICA




Building mines also helps build the rest of the ‘non-mining’ economy

• You cannot build an economy on mining alone, so it is critical that the exploration and mining leads to wider external benefits in the economy.

• We can see what external benefits the mining industry offers for the wider economy, by looking at the World Economic Forum Global Competitiveness Report, which lists a series of 'nation building' pillars.

• Infrastructure, open government and basic education being three of the most critical early stage economic pillars for development.

• Clearly exploration and mining can help in the building of each of these.

• You cannot build an economy on gold mining, but you can build a diversified mining industry on gold mining, upon which you can then build a diversified economy.



The role of government geoscience & minerals exploration in the economic development of West Africa

• Economic development efforts should now focus on the ‘Bottom Billion’ countries – which includes all the WAXI countries.

• These countries are vulnerable to the ‘resource trap’, but are not actually ‘resource rich’ – their mining sectors first need developing and then a diversified economy.

• The first stage of developing a mining economy is ‘finding the minerals’ – most of the WAXI countries still have relatively low perceived mineral potential, so ‘world class’ discoveries are required.

• ‘Externalities’ mean a monopoly is required to capture the ‘common good’ of exploration information and encourage high risk exploration – this can only be done fairly by the state.

• West African states do not have the capacity to conduct the pre-competitive exploration, so programmes like WAXI are required to assist the local states.

• Exploration is only the first stage of developing a mining economy – next the development of new mines are required.

• Development needs to first focus on small, marginal, low barrier to entry projects then moving to larger, profitable, high barrier to entry projects – WAXI can help with the targeting.

• Programmes such as WAXI also help build government and local workforce capabilities helping grow the mining industry and eventually the broader economy.



Liberia Mali

Senegal Togo Ghana

Niger

Sponsors in kind (Geological Surveys)

Sponsor: Capacity Building

Sponsors: Research Program

Research Partners

Burkina Faso Guinea Mauritania

Project Broker& Coordinator

References • Collier, P., 2007, The Bottom Billion: Why the Poorest Countries Are Failing and What Can Be Done About It, Oxford University Press: Oxford, UK

• Collier, P., 2010, The Plundered Planet: How to Reconcile Prosperity with Nature, Penguin Books: London, UK

• CRU Group, 2010, Capital costs in mining: 2012 update, August

• Hronsky, J.M.A., 2009, The Exploration Search Space Concept: Key to a Successful Exploration Strategy, Centre for Exploration Targeting Newsletter, June

• Maddison, A., 2010, Statistics on World Population, GDP and Per Capita GDP, 1-2008 AD: http://www.ggdc.net/maddison/oriindex.htm

• Mudd, G. M. Weng, Z., & Jowitt, S.M., 2013, A Detailed Assessment of Global Cu Resource Trends and Endowments, Economic Geology, 108, 1163-1183

• Sachs, J.D., & Warner, A.M., 1995, Natural Resource Abundance and Economic Growth, National Bureau of Economic Research Working Paper 5398: Cambridge, USA

• Schodde, R.C., and Hronsky, J.M.A., 2006, Chapter 4: The Role of World-Class Mines in Wealth Creation, Society of Economic Geologists, Special Publication 12, pp71-90

• Schwab, K., & Sala-i-Martin, X., 2014, The Global Competitiveness Report 2014-2015, World Economic Forum: http://www.weforum.org/reports/global-competitiveness-report-2014-2015

• United Nations Development Project (UNDP), 2014, Human Development Index (HDI): http://hdr.undp.org/en/content/human-development-index-hdi

• World Bank, 2015, Data: http://data.worldbank.org/



http://www.ggdc.net/maddison/oriindex.htm

http://www.weforum.org/reports/global-competitiveness-report-2014-2015










http://hdr.undp.org/en/content/human-development-index-hdi








http://data.worldbank.org/

http://data.worldbank.org/

Definitions • WAXI countries: Burkina Faso, Ghana, Guinea, Liberia, Mali, Mauritania, Niger, Senegal, and Togo.

• Bottom Billion countries: Afghanistan, Angola, Azerbaijan, Benin, Bhutan, Bolivia, Burkina Faso, Burundi, Cambodia, Cameroon, Central African Republic, Chad, Comoros, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Republic of the Congo, Ivory Coast, Djibouti, Equatorial Guinea, Eritrea, Ethiopia, Gambia, Ghana, Guinea, Guinea-Bissau, Guyana, Haiti, Kazakhstan, Kenya, North Korea, Kyrgyz Republic, Lao PDR, Lesotho, Liberia, Madagascar, Malawi, Mali, Mauritania, Moldova, Mongolia, Mozambique, Myanmar, Nepal, Niger, Nigeria, Rwanda, Senegal, Sierra Leone, Somalia, Sudan, Tajikistan, Tanzania, Togo, Turkmenistan, Uganda, Uzbekistan, Yemen, Zambia, and Zimbabwe.

• OECD countries: Australia, Austria, Belgium, Canada, Chile, Czech Republic, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Iceland, Ireland, Israel, Italy, Japan, Korea, Luxembourg, Mexico, Netherlands, New Zealand, Norway, Poland, Portugal, Slovak Republic, Slovenia, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Turkey, United Kingdom, and United States.

• High income countries: Andorra, Antigua and Barbuda, Aruba, Austria, Australia, Bahamas, Bahrain, Barbados, Belgium, Bermuda, Brunei, Canada, Cayman Islands, Channel Islands, Chile, Croatia, Curacao, Cyprus, Czech Republic, Denmark, Equatorial Guinea, Estonia, Faeroe Islands, Finland, France, French Polynesia, Germany, Greece, Greenland, Guam, Hong Kong, Iceland, Ireland, Isle of Man, Israel, Italy, Japan, Kuwait, Latvia, Liechtenstein, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Macao, Malta, Monaco, Netherlands, New Caledonia, New Zealand, Northern Mariana Islands, Norway, Oman, Poland, Portugal, Puerto Rico, Qatar, Russian Federation, San Marino, Saudi Arabia, South Korea, Singapore, Sint Maarten (Dutch part), Slovak Republic, Slovenia, Spain, St. Martin (French part), Sweden, Switzerland, Trinidad and Tobago, Turks and Caicos Islands, United Arab Emirates, United Kingdom, United States, Uruguay, and Virgin Islands (U.S.).

• Upper middle income countries: Albania, Algeria, American Samoa, Angola, Argentina, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Belize, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Botswana, Brazil, Bulgaria, China, Colombia, Costa Rica, Cuba, Dominica, Dominican Republic, Ecuador, Fiji, Gabon, Grenada, Hungary, Iran, Iraq, Jamaica, Jordan, Kazakhstan, Lebanon, Libya, Macedonia, Malaysia, Maldives, Marshall Islands, Mauritius, Mexico, Montenegro, Namibia, Palau, Panama, Peru, Romania, Serbia, Seychelles, South Africa, St. Lucia, St. Vincent and the Grenadines, Suriname, Thailand, Tonga, Tunisia, Turkey, Turkmenistan, Tuvalu, and Venezuela.

• Lower middle income countries: Armenia, Bhutan, Bolivia, Cabo Verde, Cameroon, Cote d'Ivoire, Djibouti, Egypt, El Salvador, Georgia, Ghana, Guatemala, Guyana, Honduras, India, Indonesia, Kiribati, Kosovo, Kyrgyz Republic, Laos, Lesotho, Mauritania, Micronesia, Moldova, Mongolia, Morocco, Nicaragua, Nigeria, Pakistan, Papua New Guinea, Paraguay, Philippines, Republic of Congo, Samoa, Sao Tome and Principe, Senegal, Solomon Islands, South Sudan, Sri Lanka, Sudan, Swaziland, Syria, Timor-Leste, Ukraine, Uzbekistan, Vanuatu, Vietnam, West Bank and Gaza, Yemen, and Zambia.

• Low income countries: Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Benin, Burkina Faso, Burundi, Cambodia, Central African Republic, Chad, Comoros, Democratic Republic of Congo, Eritrea, Ethiopia, Guinea, Guinea-Bissau, Haiti, Kenya, Liberia, Madagascar, Malawi, Mali, Mozambique, Myanmar, Nepal, Niger, North Korea, Rwanda, Sierra Leone, Somalia, Tajikistan, Tanzania, The Gambia, Togo, Uganda, and Zimbabwe.

• Human Development Index (HDI): created to emphasize that people and their capabilities should be the ultimate criteria for assessing the development of a country, not economic growth alone. It includes data on life expectancy at birth, mean years of schooling, expected years of schooling and gross national income (GNI) per capita.



government geoscience & exploring in west africa - sykes - may 2015 - curtin university /...

Economy & Finance