Governors’ Biofuels CoalitionPathways to Win-Win-Win Outcomes Ernie Shea25x’25 Project CoordinatorMarch 13, 2013

25x’25- America’s Energy Future

25x’25: A National Alliance

Operates as an autonomous project of the Energy Future Coalition

Organized to explore agriculture and forestry’s role in America’s energy future

Evolved to now include conservation, environment, business, defense and rural development organizations and leaders

The 25x’25 VisionBy the year 2025,

America’s farms, ranches and forests will provide 25 percent of

the total energy consumed in the U.S. while continuing to

produce safe, abundant and affordable food,

feed and fiber.

We Will Meet This Goal By: Producing transportation fuels Harnessing wind energy Converting biogas emissions Capturing solar and hydro energy Providing biomass for generating heat and

power Encouraging energy efficiency

1,000 Partners Strong:

Today (2012) Goal (2025)

~9.14 QuadsRenewable Energy = 9.3%

98.29 QuadsTotal EnergyConsumed

27.25 QuadsRenewable Energy = 25%

Where are we going

EIA predictsconsumption of108 Quads by 2025

Where We Are Now?

Coal 20.46%

Natural Gas 25.53%Petroleum 36.23%

Nuclear 8.48%

Hydroelectric 3.26%Geothermal 0.23%

Solar/PV 0.12% Wind 1.20%Biomass 4.50%

U.S. Primary Energy Consumption by source, 2011

Outcomes of 25x’25 27.8 quads of energy $640 billion boost to economy 4.7 million new jobs A more secure nation A cleaner environment Improved public health Heightened respect for U.S. agriculture

RealitiesFossil fuel resources are finiteGlobal energy consumption is increasing (nearly 30% by 2030)The world population is growing (9.2 billion by 2050)Fast-developing economies like India and China are demanding more resources Greenhouse gas emissions are increasing (World carbon dioxide emissions expected to increase by 1.9% annually between 2001 and 2025)

America’s Mega ChallengesNational Security Economic Recovery

Environmental Improvement

America’s Mega ChallengesNational Security Economic Recovery

Environmental Improvement

Public Health

What we know about aromatics… Represent 20% to 30% of each gallon of gasoline by

volume (provide octane and suppress premature combustion).

Are comprised of benzene, toluene, and xylene (BTX). Are created in crude oil refining, requiring more oil,

energy, and cost than other gasoline constituents. U.S. market consumes 30-40 billion gallons per year Primary contributors to Ultra Fine Particle (UFP) and

Polycyclic Aromatic Hydrocarbon (PAH) emissions Uncombusted BTX also constitutes black carbon, with

significant short-term greenhouse gas effect.

Aromatics and Public Health EPA has called ambient particulate matter (PM) one of

the nation’s greatest heath threats

PM from vehicular emissions represents greatest danger

Gasoline PAHs are carcinogenic, mutagenic and genotoxic

Health studies link gasoline aromatics to human mortality and a myriad of health problems including autism, childhood obesity, premature birth, birth defects, infant brain damage, etc., along with respiratory conditions and cancers.

Solution Pathways

LegislativeMarket Forces

Regulatory Action

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Mandatory Language Arising from Daschle – Dole ‘CLEAN OCTANE’ Provision in 1990 Clean Air Act Amendments

CAA 202(a): EPA “shall by regulation prescribe … standards applicable to the emission of any air pollutant from … new motor vehicles or new motor vehicle engines, which … cause, or contribute to, air pollution which may reasonably be anticipated to endanger public health or welfare.”

CAA 202(l): For toxic pollutants, EPA “regulations shall contain standards for such fuels or vehicles, or both, which the Administrator determines reflect the greatest degree of emission reduction achievable.…”

Passed after extensive debate on the Senate floor by a vote of 69 – 30

Bottom Line

PM / UFPs / PAHs from light vehicles pose major potential health risks to urban populations through multiple avenues;

There is insufficient research underway to understand these risks; and

No clear regulatory path to mitigate them.

Path Forward

Research and science tell us that we have a serious problem

For whatever reason EPA, whose principle mission is to protect public health, has chosen not to take action

Recently finalized CAFE/GHG rules could very well exacerbate this problem

Governors can provide much needed leadership in drawing national attention to this issue and encouraging EPA to take appropriate action

Points to Ponder

There is no silver bullet We face a formidable opponent We lack a comprehensive long range plan for realizing

the full potential of biofuels Spending too much time competing with ourselves for

leadership Time is not on our side The entire value chain and rural America will suffer if we

do not prevail

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