GOVST meeting

MERCATOR Ocean, Toulouse, France, 8-10 June 2009

Coastal TT

Pierre De Mey, LEGOSVilly Kourafalou, U. Miami

Coastal TT

(CSIRO) (OSU)

Oregon CTZSST

24 Aug 2003

Coastal ocean specifics

• Focus: shelf break exchanges, shelf dynamics, coastal current & associated (sub-)mesoscale

• Influence of coastal ocean processes felt far beyond shelf break, overlaps & interacts with open ocean dynamics

• Continuous spectrum of LF and HF processes with specific physics: free surface, tides, 3D processes, etc.

Coastal TT Outline

• Previous activities (2006-2008)• Where do we go from here?• Towards ToRs• ICODAE Core Science examples and added value for GOV• ICODAE first steps

Coastal TT Previous activities (2006-2008) -- 1

• Explicit interface with Coastal and Shelf Seas came in late in GODAE schedule– Assess & illustrate value of GODAE results for coastal and shelf seas

models and forecasting systems– Build a community

• Coastal and Shelf Seas Working Group– Permit a first census of national, operational-track CSS activities using

GODAE products• Members: 1 US, 1 CAN, 2 EU, 1 JP, 1 CN, 1 AUS• 40 systems on web site

– Touch wider community

• Community forum events– Coastal session at the 2006 Beijing GODAE Symposium “Ocean Data

Assimilation and Prediction in Asia-Oceania” (16 abstracts)– 2007 Liverpool Workshop "Assessing the value of GODAE products in

coastal and shelf seas” (36 abstracts)– Special session at 2008 Fall AGU meeting, San Francisco “Advances in the

Prediction Capabilities of Interdisciplinary Nested Models in Coastal and Shelf Seas” (1 oral + 2 poster sessions, ~40 abstracts)

– Poster sessions at 2008 GODAE Final Symposium in Nice.

Coastal TT Previous activities (2006-2008) -- 2

• Publications– Web pages on GODAE site: www.godae.org/CSSWG.html– White Paper (2nd ed., Oct 2007): “Towards the assessment and

demonstration of the value of GODAE results for coastal and shelf seas models and forecasting systems”• An attempt at a “state-of-the-art” summary (as of Oct. 2007)• Available on web site

– OcDyn special issue (out, Feb 2009): “Assessing the value of GODAE products in coastal and shelf seas”• 8 papers from Liverpool workshop results• Good set of results on downscaling from GODAE products

– Final Symposium summary paper in OcMag (accepted, May 2009): “Applications in coastal modelling and forecasting”• Added value of downscaling from GODAE systems, with examples not shown in

OcDyn• Elements influencing predictability w/examples, initialization, data assimilation

Coastal TT GODAE CSS Community

– 40 projects/systems/groups– Using b.c.s from GODAE core systems– Varied in objectives and methods– Geographically clustered

• Africa: 1• Australia: 2• China Seas: 2• Japan Seas: 4• Indian Ocean: 1

• North Pacific: 1• North America West Coast: 4• Gulf of Mexico: 4• North America East Coast: 2• Arctic and Nordic Seas: 3• Norwegian, Baltic, and North Seas: 7• Northeast Atlantic: 7• Mediterranean: 5

P1

P23-24-25-26P21-22

P20

P19

P18

P17P16

P10-13-14-15

P12P9-10-11P8

P7P6

P40

P5P4

P3P2

P32-33-34-35-39P30-39

P29-37P28-31-38

P27

P31 P36

Coastal TT GODAE CSS Community

P1

P23-24-25-26P21-22

P20

P19

P18

P17P16

P10-13-14-15

P12P9-10-11P8

P7

P5P4

P3P2

P32-33-34-35-39P30-39

P29-37P28-31-38

P27

P31

– 40 projects/systems/groups– Using b.c.s from GODAE core systems– Varied in objectives and methods– Geographically clustered

• Africa: 1• Australia: 2• China Seas: 2• Japan Seas: 3• Indian Ocean: 1

• North Pacific: 1• North America West Coast: 4• Gulf of Mexico: 4• North America East Coast: 2• Arctic and Nordic Seas: 3• Norwegian, Baltic, and North Seas: 7• Northeast Atlantic: 7• Mediterranean: 5

P36

P6P40

Coastal TT CSS Community: sharing experience

P40 Kyushu U./Fisheries Institute Naoki Hirose JP Y

OcDyn

Y

Y

YYY

(Y)Y

Coastal TT CSSWG White Paper contents

• 1 Rationale• 2 Coastal and shelf seas downscaling within GODAE

– Uses of coastal models– Links between large-scale and coastal models– Ongoing/planned CSS downscaling projects linked to GODAE

• 3 Issues and requirements related to downscaling– Critical issues and requirements– Open issues

• 4 Proposed approach– Coastal workshop(s), links with international activities, etc.

• Appendices– CSSWG and contributors to PP– Details of CSS projects– Details of large-scale GODAE data producers: models, products, data

serving strategy– The MERSEA and ECOOP European projects

- Access to adequate large-scale GODAE simulations- Jump in ocean physics and in forcing functions- Initialization- Tides and barotropic dynamics- How do we measure goodness and benefit in CSS models? - Data assimilation in CSS models- Two-way coupling- Unstructured grid modelling

Coastal TT OcDyn Special CSSWG issue (February 2009)

Special Issue editors: De Mey, Proctor, Halliwell, Powell• De Mey & Proctor, Editorial• Kourafalou et al., “Evaluation of GODAE boundary condition effects in

South Florida nested simulations”• Halliwell et al., “Impact of GODAE products on nested HYCOM

simulations of the West Florida Shelf”• Powell & Moore, “Estimating the Analysis Error from 4DVAR Data

Assimilation of GODAE products”• Proctor et al., “The influence of initial and open boundary conditions

on POLCOMS in the North East Atlantic”• Alvera-Azcarate et al., “A nested model of the Cariaco Basin

(Venezuela): description of the basin's interior hydrography and interactions with the open ocean”

• Counillon & Bertino, “High resolution ensemble forecasting for the Gulf of Mexico eddies and fronts”

• De Mey et al., “Assessment of observational networks with the Representer Matrix Spectra Method…”

• Herzfeld, “Improving stability of regional numerical ocean models”

Oct. 2007 Liverpool workshop

Coastal TT

Where do we go from here?

Coastal TT Prospective from last IGST (Washington, D.C., June 2008)

Could envisage transition from present situation: two types of actions• Keep/develop forums to discuss cross-cutting science issues (some old,

some new) and promote networking btw. CSS groups & systems– Downscaling-related (modelling, observing system e.g. SWOT, usability of

large-scale products, HR bathymetry)– Interdisciplinary (circulation, tides, probably ecosystem)– WP issues: DA (e.g. w/tides), ensembles, 2-way nesting, upscaling,

unstructured grids, added-value: eddy-resolving, atmospheric forcing issues, HF, tidal mixing, …

– Metrics for assessment and intercomparison• Opportunities of linking|hosting: project of IOC wg on Marine Modelling (science

issues), JCOMM expert team (e.g. intercomparison standards of CSS systems), MyOcean science board, GCOS…

• See CLIVAR panels structuring

• Foster establishment of pilot projects in physically-meaningful regional ocean domains– Help bring focus and weight to science discussions– Define geographically-meaningful metrics and intercomparison– Take final users demand into account and relay to supplying groups– A way to include more systems, while remaining manageable– Contribution of MyOcean MFCs, links w/JCOMM regional services?

Coastal TT Coastal Ocean and Shelf Seas Task Team (“Coastal TT”)

Defining TT mission: work towards the provision of a sound scientific basis for sustainable multidisciplinary downscaling and forecasting activities in the world coastal oceans

Time frame: 4 years (2013)Main actions:• Continue co-sponsoring forums (AGU, EGU) to discuss cross-cutting

science issues (downscaling, predictability, interdisciplinary)– Remain visible to community of coastal modellers

• Promote limited-time Pilot Projects (PPs)– CSS forecasting largely supported at national level– Operational implementation not always stabilized at institute/agency level– Focus on coastal forecasting science (not on coastal forecasting

coordination)• Fewer groups but more tightly integrated than former WG• In several world coastal regions• Using GOV products• Integrated in terms of science and objectives -> next slide

– Contribute to the training of young scientists

Coastal TT ICODAE - 1

• ICODAE: International Coastal Ocean Data Assimilation Experiment– A label for Pilot Projects (or existing projects) adhering to the ToRs

• Types of activities: (developed in ToRs)– Conduct core science investigations related to the target processes (-> Villy)

• e.g. submesoscale, shelf dynamics, biology, validation, …

– Interface with (some) end users and conduct application-targeted science investigations related to the target applications

• e.g. forecasting, atmosphere interaction, biology (upper trophic levels), ...

– Coordinate activities and results within TT, relate with GOV & operational activities

• All of the above open to coordination, in particular tools: metrics, downscaling, assimilation, downscaling error estimates (if available from large-scale systems)

– Neville Smith: “I think the challenge is to find those elements that are shared and would encourage this nascent coastal GODAE community to work together. I think one element is the development of a discipline for evaluating the value of models, and the level of predictability (growth of errors). If this group could become the developer of standards, I think it would be a great contribution.”

• Plan (inter-regional) intercomparison, array design studies• Feedback onto GOV

– Contribute to training and forums related to coastal forecasting• Summer school on coastal forecasting ca. 2012

• PP representatives members of Coastal TT

Coastal TT ICODAE - 2

• Focus regions for PPs: (non-limitative list) (readiness)– Gulf of Mexico– US West Coast– North-East Atlantic (NWS/IBI/National)– Mediterranean– Japan seas– Other australian/australasian region?– …?

Coastal TTCoastal ocean forecasting applicationsUseful forecast lead times -- sorted by variable

• Sea Level:– Storm surges -- O(1day)

• Surface Currents (SC), Nearshore Currents (NC), Flags:– Maritime safety (SC) -- search&rescue : hours– Oil industry (platform maintenance, oil spills) (SC) -- hours to days– Nuclear industry (radionuclide spills) (SC) -- days– Ship routing, sail races (SC) -- days– Maritime safety (SC,sea ice detection flag) -- icebergs: days to weeks– Sediment transport (beaches) (NC) -- days to weeks

• Temperature (T), Density (DENS) & Vorticity (VORT):– Response of surface layer to HF wind/pressure, tropical cyclones,

hurricanes (T,SC) -- 1day to several days– Coastal upwellings -- days– Military (sonar prediction) (DENS,VORT) -- O(1week)– Biophysical parameters (primary production, fisheries, aquaculture,

swimming water quality, sewage spills) (DENS,VORT) -- days to weeks (requires small-scale vorticity & currents)

Coastal TTEcological modelling of nutrients and phytoplankton(PREVIMER, France)

Coastal TT Observation-related items & open questions

• Coastal TT missions related to in situ observing systems?– “GOOS Regional Alliances”– MOON, ROOS (e.g. IBIROOS), OOI, tide gauge networks, ...– Stay aware of regional databases & QC procedures -- through PPs– Promote interoperability & free access– How can we provide support/guidelines?

• Coastal TT missions related to space observing systems?– How can we provide support/guidelines to SWOT, OST, & other space

missions of interest for coastal oceanography (new or to be sustained)?– COSPAR in Bremen in 2010? Session A21 -- “... space-borne observations,

and their applications in the Coastal Zone (currents, algal blooms, freshwater inflow)…”

Coastal TT Core Science and added value for GOV

• Predictability COSS downscaling/forecasting as added value to GOV

(coastal physics, land-sea interactions, strait dynamics, wetting/drying, tides, local data…)

multi-scale modeling and observations (time, space)

data assimilation issues / array designinterdisciplinary (particle dynamics, biophysical modeling – low/high trophic,

from nutrient transport to fisheries)• Coastal to offshore interactions

Shelf break processes, inter-basin exchanges, flows through passages, connectivityUpscaling / improvement of predictability of the outer models (2-way

nesting, synthetic observations)• Specific applications (emerging)

Extreme events (hurricanes…)Climate change (the current climate models cannot properly address

impacts on coastal sea level etc.)

Coastal TTOS52B - Advances in prediction capabilities of interdisciplinary nested models in coastal and shelf seas II

• (Topic 1) "Downscaling & adding value to large-scale products" – Ocean Prediction via downscaling of large-scale ocean models (Hogan et al.,

invited)

– Downscaling Global Model for Continental Shelf off SE Australia (Roughan et al.)

– High-resolution oc/atm modeling of the Florida Big Bend region (Morey et al.)

• (Topic 2) "Assimilation in coastal and shelf seas systems" – Stochastic methodologies to assess coastal observational networks (Le Hénaff et

al.)

– Discussion: Enhancing predictability in the coastal ocean + open topics

• (Topic 3) "Validation of coastal ocean models" – Interdisciplinary modeling of the California Current System (Edwards et al.,

invited)

– Coastal Observation and a Forecasting System for German Bight (Stanev & Colijn)

– Impact of GODAE i.c.s on Coastal Response to Hurricanes (Halliwell et al.)

• (Topic 4) "Utility of coastal models" – Biophysical Larval Tracking System (Paris et al., invited)

– Sensitivity of Irish Sea Temperature to Inherent Optical Properties (Polton et al.)

Coastal TT Assimilation in coastal ocean systems

Positive impact of assimilation of gliders off Monterey Bay (NRL)

ALT DA enhances slope current (LEGOS/ESEOO)

Coastal TT Data-based validation of coastal-ocean systems

Influence of downscaling and DA at South Florida outer shelf mooring site during a period

of intense Gulf Stream eddy activity (P14, RSMAS)

Climatological and cruise-data water mass verification (P28, MERCATOR)

Coastal buoy hourly surface currents (P30, ESEOO)

ESEOAT

Free

DA (NCODA)

Coastal TT Data-based validation of coastal-ocean systems

Altimetry products (P1, NERSC/U.Capetown)

Local cruise data (P11, UCSC)

Coastal TT

• 1/12° Northeast Atlantic NEMO configuration (target: 1/36° in MyOcean GMES project)

• Downscaled from MERCATOR GODAE product

Modis No tide

July 2004 tidal mixing fronts: impact on SST (Chanut, MERCATOR)

with tides

Cherbourg SST

Added value: tides

Coastal TT

Observations: 13 July 2004

Mouton SHOM)

MERCATOR

Added value: tides

Coastal TT Coastal to offshore interactionsExample: Eddy activity and fronts in the Gulf of Mexico

GoM-HYCOM 1/25 deg (NRL)Daata Assimilative (NCODA)

Coastal TT Added Value to GODAE products

NA-HYCOM 1/12 deg (GODAE)Daata Assimilative (OI)

SOFLA-HYCOM 1/25 degFree running

Coastal TT

Apr 21 2004SeaWiFS data

FKEYS-HYCOMApr 21 2004

(provided by Chuanmin Hu, USF)

Implications on large scale predictability: influence of eddies on Gulf Stream meandering

May 24, 2004

GoM-HYCOMApr 21 2004

Coastal TT

MODEL (sub-domain)

WERA data(N.Shay, UM)

Jan 19 2005 00Z Jan 20 2005 00Z Jan 21 2005 00Z

High resolution coastal modeling:• resollve submesoscale features• provide 3-D fields to analyze surface currents from high frequency radar (WERA)

Synergy of high resolution observations and high resolution modeling

Coastal TT

2%2% 38%38%

15%15% 27%27%

12%12% 28%28%

13%13%0.2%0.2%

PLD 30 d

Ontogenetic vertical migration behavior(damselfish Stegastes partitus)

• increased overall recruitment• changes in dispersal direction• changes in larval linkages

Passive OVM

Implications on connectivity and fisheriesRelative influence of physical-biological interactions on larval dispersal

(Paris et al. 2007)

Coastal TT Hurricane prediction: regional GoM-HYCOM with HWIND (NOAA-AOML)

G. Halliwell (NOAA)

Coastal TT

Objectives:(i)combine biophysical in-situ and satellite observations, models and data assimilation techniques suitable for the dynamical downscaling of global oceanographic fields to the shelf/coastal regions toward forecasting and the design of optimal observing systems

(ii)resolve time and spatial scales that are important for the cross-marginal and inter-basin exchange of waters, larvae and nutrients that are not currently provided by large (global) scale products

(iii)embrace an interdisciplinary and international approach to research, education and outreach that will have a long lasting impact on coastal science, management and policy.

RESEARCH GOAL:development and skill assessment of interdisciplinary, data assimilative coastal and regional numerical models integrated with coastal observing systems and nested within global models to achieve dynamic downscaling of both models and observations from the global to the coastal scaleEDUCATIONAL GOAL:prepare tomorrow’s scientists by providing direct research experience and interdisciplinary training at international academic and industry science centers of excellence and industry

ICODAE Example: Partnership for International Research and EducationInternational Coastal Data Assimilation Experiment in the Caribbean and Mediterranean Seas (pre-proposal to NSF)

Coastal TTUniversity of Miami (lead Institute) – V. Kourafalou (lead PI)Co-PIs and Senior Personnel: (A) observations (in-situ): R. Cowen, B. Haus, N. Shay(B) observations (satellite): H. Graber (Director, Center for SE Tropical Advanced Remote Sensing), P. Minnett(C) modeling: C. Paris, J. Olascoaga, A. Reniers(D) data assimilation: A. Srinivasan, A. Griffa(E) education assessment: A. Bessell (Education department), S. Sponaugle (NSF/Advance SEEDS: Scientists and Engineers Expanding Diversity& Success)(F) applications: J. Ault (fisheries), J. McManus (reef ecology), L. McManus (policy and management)(G) international collaboration: P. Ortner (Director, CIMAS Coop. Inst. Mar. Atm. Science, CaraCOOS member)Industry Partner: M. Roffer, Ocean Fishing Forecasting Service Inc. (ROFFS/Caribbean & Mediterranean) INFORMATION MANAGEMENT: Center for Computational Science (N. Tsinoremas, Director)PROJECT OVERSIGHT: International Steering Committee, Internal Steering Committee and External Advisory Board RECRUITMENT, ORIENTATION AND OUTREACH: RSMAS Communications (B. Gonzalez, Director)Florida State University (PI: E. Chassignet):coupled ocean-atm. and biophysical modelingUniversity of South Florida (PI: R. Weisberg): real time observations and modelingUniversity of the U.S. Virgin Islands (PI: N. Idrisi): Caribbean data and real time modelingUniversity of Puerto Rico (PI: J. Corredor): Caribbean data and real time modelingU.S. Institutes/Affiliates: NOAA-AOML (G. Halliwell): Observing System Simulation Experiments (user)NOAA-Southeast Fisheries (J. Lamkin): fisheries research (user)MOTE laboratory (R. Hueter): fisheries research (user)National Marine Sanctuaries (B. Keller): ecosystem management (user)

NRL-MRY (J. Cummings): High resolution atmospheric data sets (provider)NRL-SSC (P. Hogan): Global model archives and downscaling (provider)Nature Conservancy (P. Kramer): environmental research (user)

PIRE-ICODAE US Partners

Coastal TT

Belgium: P1, Univ. of Liege, A. Barth (D)Brazil: P2, U. of Sao Paulo, E. Campos (A,C), P3, U. of Bahia, R. Silva(C), NSF/PIRE on AmazonFrance: P4,LEGOS (Laboratoire d'Etudes en Geophysique et Oceanographie Spatiales), P. de Mey (D); P5, CNRS-LA (Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique), C. Estournel (C); P6, SHOM (Service Hydrographique et Oceanographique de la Marine), Y. Morel (C)Greece: P7, HCMR (Hellenic Center for Marine Research), K. Nittis, MedGOOS chair (A, D, F)Italy: P8*, NURC (NATO Undersea Research Center), M. Rixen (B,C,D); P9, INGV (Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia), P. Oddo (C,D); P10,OGS (Oceanografia e Geofisica Sperimentale), P. Poulain (A); P11, U. of Bologna, N. Pinardi (C, D); P12*, CMCC (Euro-Mediterranean Centre for Climate Change), S. Dobricic (C, D); P13, CNR (Consiglio Nazionale Delle Ricerche), S. Vignudelli, L. Santoleri (B, C, D)Mexico: P14, CINVESTAV (Centro de Investigación Estudios Avanzados/Instituto Politécnico Nacional), D. Aldana (A,F)Norway: P15*, NERSC (Nansen Environmental and Remote Sensing Center), L. Bertino (D)Spain: P16, IMEDEA (Instituto Mediterráneo Estudios Avanzados/U. Balearic Islands), J. Tintore (A, F)Industry Foreign Affiliate Partner: P17, Delft Hydraulics/ DELTARES, Netherlands (J. Van Gils) (C, F) Affilation with International Programs: GODAE/OceanView (GOV), GOOS (Global Ocean Observing System), GEO/CZCP (Group on Earth Observations/Coastal Zone Community of Practice), LOICZ (Land-Ocean Interactions in the Coastal Zone), HYCOM Consortium for Data Assimilative Modeling, CaraCOOS (Caribbean Coastal Ocean Observing System), MOON (Mediterranean Operational Oceanography Network), European Commission Education and Training ERASMUS MUNDUS Program (UM is a member)

PIRE-ICODAE International Partners

Coastal TT

Enhancing predictability in coastal-ocean systems

• Strategy wrt. downscaling & initialization?– Dynamical downscaling == nesting (1- or 2-way) + grid refinement approaches– Estimation-based downscaling: use larger-scale estimates as bits of

information, optionally within (weak) constraints (e.g. gravity-wave transients)

• Strategy wrt. atmospheric forcing & products?– Forecast range, space/time effective resolution, sensitivity to coastal orography– Coupled ocean/atmosphere coastal effects

• Multiscale modelling– Which uses for: two-way nesting, unstructured-grid modelling?

• Data assimilation strategy?– Complex error subspace: non-stationary, non-homogeneous, non-Gaussian,

open to lateral & atmospheric error forcing• Are “advanced” methods preferable (4D-var, EnKF, full SEEK) ?• Interest of augmented state vector (physical vars + surface atm + others) ?

– Array design• Rich spectrum of available data types (HF radars, tide gauges, coastal observatories,

gliders, gravity)• Detect model state errors• Control model state errors via DA• Objectively test models (“are pdfs compatible?”)

Coastal TT COSST outlook: Y1 steps

• Finish drafting ToRs – summer

• 1-2 PPs by end of year would be a good start!– possibly ICODAE/PIRE (GoM, Med) – or other…– Importance of intercomparison

• Contact groups & populate TT– PP representatives (evolving)– Experts (key issues, invite papers to forums)– Need national representatives as in CSSWG?

• Coordinate w/other TTs - enhance GOV socioeconomic component

• Organize special sessions as forums– 2010 AGU Ocean Sciences meeting, Portland, Oregon, USA -- session

proposal pending– Session proposal for 2011 EGU

GOVST meeting

MERCATOR Ocean, Toulouse, France, 8-10 June 2009

Thank you.