gp in hours measles no trend similar to baseline levels ......gp in hours syndromic surveillance...
TRANSCRIPT
GP In Hours Syndromic Surveillance System:
England
13 August 2019
Key messages
Nothing new to report on week 32.
In This Issue:
Key messages.
Diagnostic indicators at a glance.
GP practices and denominator population.
National syndromic indicators.
Notes and further information.
Diagnostic indicators at a glance:
GP practices and denominator population:
**based on the average number of practices and denominator population in the reporting working week.
A Heat-Health Watch system operates in England from 1 June to 15 September each year. As part of the Heatwave Plan for England, the PHE Real-time Syndromic Surveillance team will be routinely monitoring the public health impact of hot weather using syndromic surveillance data during this period. Heat-health watch level (current reporting week): Level 1 Summer preparedness
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/heathealth/
Year: 2019 Week: 32
Data to: 11 August 2019
* Moving Epidemic Method (MEM) influenza activity threshold (see notes)
Indicator Trend Level
Upper respiratory tract infection no trend below baseline levels
Influenza-like illness no trend pre-epidemic threshold*
Pharyngitis no trend below baseline levels
Scarlet fever decreasing similar to baseline levels
Lower respiratory tract infection no trend below baseline levels
Pneumonia no trend below baseline levels
Gastroenteritis no trend below baseline levels
Vomiting no trend below baseline levels
Diarrhoea no trend below baseline levels
Asthma decreasing above baseline levels
Conjunctivitis no trend below baseline levels
Mumps decreasing above baseline levels
Measles no trend similar to baseline levels
Rubella no trend
Pertussis increasing
Chickenpox decreasingHerpes zoster no trend
Cellulitis no trend
Impetigo decreasing
below baseline levels similar to basleine levels similar to baseline levels below baseline levels below baseline levels below baseline levels
Allergic rhinitis decreasing below baseline levels
Heat/sunstroke decreasing similar to baseline levels
Insect Bites decreasing above baseline levels
Year Week GP Practices Reporting** Population size**
2019 32 2,578 22.6 million
GP In Hours
13 August 2019.
Page 2.
1: Upper respiratory
tract infection.
Daily incidence rate (and 7-day moving average*) per 100,000 population (all England, all ages).
* 7-day moving average adjusted for bank holidays.
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
12/08/18 09/09/18 07/10/18 04/11/18 02/12/18 30/12/18 27/01/19 24/02/19 24/03/19 21/04/19 19/05/19 16/06/19 14/07/19 11/08/19
Da
ily r
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r 100,0
00 p
op
ula
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weekend bank holiday 7 day mov avg baseline URTI
Year: 2019 Week: 32
2: Influenza-like illness
(ILI).
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
12/08/18 09/09/18 07/10/18 04/11/18 02/12/18 30/12/18 27/01/19 24/02/19 24/03/19 21/04/19 19/05/19 16/06/19 14/07/19 11/08/19
Da
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r 100,0
00 p
op
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weekend bank holiday 7 day mov avg baseline Influenza-like illness
Intentionally left blank.
Daily incidence rate (and 7-day moving average*) per 100,000 population (all England, all ages).
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
1.2
1.4
1.6
12/08/18 09/09/18 07/10/18 04/11/18 02/12/18 30/12/18 27/01/19 24/02/19 24/03/19 21/04/19 19/05/19 16/06/19 14/07/19 11/08/19
Da
ily r
ate
pe
r 100,0
00 p
op
ula
tio
n
weekend bank holiday 7 day mov avg baseline Scarlet Fever
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
12/08/18 09/09/18 07/10/18 04/11/18 02/12/18 30/12/18 27/01/19 24/02/19 24/03/19 21/04/19 19/05/19 16/06/19 14/07/19 11/08/19
Da
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00 p
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weekend bank holiday 7 day mov avg baseline Pharyngitis or scarlet fever
GP In Hours
13 August 2019.
Page 3.
* 7-day moving average adjusted for bank holidays.
3: Pharyngitis or scarlet fever.
Daily incidence rate (and 7-day moving average*) per 100,000 population (all England, all ages).
4: Scarlet fever.
Daily incidence rate (and 7-day moving average*) per 100,000 population (all England, based on a denominator population of approximately 5.5 million patients)
4a: Scarlet fever by age.
Year: 2019 Week: 32
Average daily incidence rate by week per 100,000 population (all England, based on a denominator population of approximately 5.5 million patients).
0
1
2
3
4
33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32
2018 2019
Av
era
ge
da
ily
ra
te p
er
10
0,0
00
re
gis
tere
d G
P p
ati
en
ts
Year - Week
Under 1 Year 1 to 4 5 to 14 15 to 44 45 to 64 65 to 74 75 plus All ages
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
12/08/18 09/09/18 07/10/18 04/11/18 02/12/18 30/12/18 27/01/19 24/02/19 24/03/19 21/04/19 19/05/19 16/06/19 14/07/19 11/08/19
Da
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r 100,0
00 p
op
ula
tio
n
weekend bank holiday 7 day mov avg baseline LRTI
GP In Hours
13 August 2019.
Page 4.
* 7-day moving average adjusted for bank holidays.
Daily incidence rate (and 7-day moving average*) per 100,000 population (all England, all ages).
5: Lower respiratory tract infection (LRTI).
Year: 2019 Week: 32
Intentionally left blank.
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
1.2
12/08/18 09/09/18 07/10/18 04/11/18 02/12/18 30/12/18 27/01/19 24/02/19 24/03/19 21/04/19 19/05/19 16/06/19 14/07/19 11/08/19
Da
ily r
ate
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r 100,0
00 p
op
ula
tio
n
weekend bank holiday 7 day mov avg baseline Pneumonia
Daily incidence rate (and 7-day moving average*) per 100,000 population (all England, all ages).
6: Pneumonia.
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
12/08/18 09/09/18 07/10/18 04/11/18 02/12/18 30/12/18 27/01/19 24/02/19 24/03/19 21/04/19 19/05/19 16/06/19 14/07/19 11/08/19
Da
ily r
ate
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r 100,0
00 p
op
ula
tio
n
weekend bank holiday 7 day mov avg baseline Vomiting
8: Vomiting.
Daily incidence rate (and 7-day moving average*) per 100,000 population (all England, all ages).
7a: Gastroenteritis by age.
Average daily incidence rate by week per 100,000 population (all England).
GP In Hours
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
12/08/18 09/09/18 07/10/18 04/11/18 02/12/18 30/12/18 27/01/19 24/02/19 24/03/19 21/04/19 19/05/19 16/06/19 14/07/19 11/08/19
Da
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r 100,0
00 p
op
ula
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n
weekend bank holiday 7 day mov avg baseline Gastroenteritis
13 August 2019.
Page 5.
* 7-day moving average adjusted for bank holidays.
7: Gastroenteritis.
Daily incidence rate (and 7-day moving average*) per 100,000 population (all England, all ages).
Year: 2019 Week: 32
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32
2018 2019
Av
era
ge
da
ily
ra
te p
er
10
0,0
00
re
gis
tere
d G
P p
ati
en
ts
Year - Week
Under 1 Year 1 to 4 5 to 14 15 to 44 45 to 64 65 to 74 75 plus All ages
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
12/08/18 09/09/18 07/10/18 04/11/18 02/12/18 30/12/18 27/01/19 24/02/19 24/03/19 21/04/19 19/05/19 16/06/19 14/07/19 11/08/19
Da
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r 100,0
00 p
op
ula
tio
n
weekend bank holiday 7 day mov avg baseline Diarrhoea
8a: Vomiting by age.
Average daily incidence rate by week per 100,000 population (all England).
9: Diarrhoea.
Daily incidence rate (and 7-day moving average*) per 100,000 population (all England, all ages).
GP In Hours
13 August 2019.
Page 6.
* 7-day moving average adjusted for bank holidays.
9a. Diarrhoea by age.
Year: 2019 Week: 32
Average daily incidence rate by week per 100,000 population (all England).
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32
2018 2019
Av
era
ge
da
ily
ra
te p
er
10
0,0
00
re
gis
tere
d G
P p
ati
en
ts
Year - Week
Under 1 Year 1 to 4 5 to 14 15 to 44 45 to 64 65 to 74 75 plus All ages
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32
2018 2019
Av
era
ge
da
ily
ra
te p
er
10
0,0
00
re
gis
tere
d G
P p
ati
en
ts
Year - Week
Under 1 Year 1 to 4 5 to 14 15 to 44 45 to 64 65 to 74 75 plus All ages
GP In Hours
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
12/08/18 09/09/18 07/10/18 04/11/18 02/12/18 30/12/18 27/01/19 24/02/19 24/03/19 21/04/19 19/05/19 16/06/19 14/07/19 11/08/19
Da
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r 100,0
00 p
op
ula
tio
n
weekend bank holiday 7 day mov avg baseline Asthma
13 August 2019.
Page 7.
* 7-day moving average adjusted for bank holidays.
10a: Asthma by age.
Average daily incidence rate by week per 100,000 population (all England).
10: Asthma.
Daily incidence rate (and 7-day moving average*) per 100,000 population (all England, all ages).
Year: 2019 Week: 32
Daily incidence rate (and 7-day moving average*) per 100,000 population (all England, all ages).
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
12/08/18 09/09/18 07/10/18 04/11/18 02/12/18 30/12/18 27/01/19 24/02/19 24/03/19 21/04/19 19/05/19 16/06/19 14/07/19 11/08/19
Da
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r 100,0
00 p
op
ula
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weekend bank holiday 7 day mov avg baseline Conjunctivitis
11: Conjunctivitis.
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32
2018 2019
Av
era
ge
da
ily
ra
te p
er
10
0,0
00
re
gis
tere
d G
P p
ati
en
ts
Year - Week
Under 1 Year 1 to 4 5 to 14 15 to 44 45 to 64 65 to 74 75 plus All ages
0.00
0.05
0.10
0.15
0.20
0.25
0.30
12/08/18 09/09/18 07/10/18 04/11/18 02/12/18 30/12/18 27/01/19 24/02/19 24/03/19 21/04/19 19/05/19 16/06/19 14/07/19 11/08/19
Da
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r 100,0
00 p
op
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n
weekend bank holiday 7 day mov avg baseline Mumps
GP In Hours
13 August 2019.
Page 8.
12: Mumps.
* 7-day moving average adjusted for bank holidays.
Daily incidence rate (and 7-day moving average*) per 100,000 population (all England, all ages).
Average daily incidence rate by week per 100,000 population (all England).
12a: Mumps by age.
Year: 2019 Week: 32
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32
2018 2019
Av
era
ge
da
ily
ra
te p
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10
0,0
00
re
gis
tere
d G
P p
ati
en
ts
Year - Week
Under 1 Year 1 to 4 5 to 14 15 to 44 45 to 64 65 to 74 75 plus All ages
Intentionally left blank.
GP In Hours
13 August 2019.
Page 9.
* 7-day moving average adjusted for bank holidays.
Daily incidence rate (and 7-day moving average*) per 100,000 population (all England, all ages).
13: Measles.
Year: 2019 Week: 32
0.00
0.02
0.04
0.06
0.08
0.10
0.12
0.14
0.16
12/08/18 09/09/18 07/10/18 04/11/18 02/12/18 30/12/18 27/01/19 24/02/19 24/03/19 21/04/19 19/05/19 16/06/19 14/07/19 11/08/19
Da
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r 100,0
00 p
op
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n
weekend bank holiday 7 day mov avg baseline Measles
Daily incidence rate (and 7-day moving average*) per 100,000 population (all England, all ages).
14: Rubella.
0.000
0.005
0.010
0.015
0.020
0.025
0.030
0.035
0.040
0.045
12/08/18 09/09/18 07/10/18 04/11/18 02/12/18 30/12/18 27/01/19 24/02/19 24/03/19 21/04/19 19/05/19 16/06/19 14/07/19 11/08/19
Da
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r 100,0
00 p
op
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weekend bank holiday 7 day mov avg baseline Rubella
Intentionally left blank.
0.00
0.02
0.04
0.06
0.08
0.10
0.12
0.14
0.16
0.18
0.20
12/08/18 09/09/18 07/10/18 04/11/18 02/12/18 30/12/18 27/01/19 24/02/19 24/03/19 21/04/19 19/05/19 16/06/19 14/07/19 11/08/19
Da
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r 100,0
00 p
op
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weekend bank holiday 7 day mov avg baseline Pertussis
GP In Hours
Page 10.
13 August 2019.
* 7-day moving average
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
12/08/18 09/09/18 07/10/18 04/11/18 02/12/18 30/12/18 27/01/19 24/02/19 24/03/19 21/04/19 19/05/19 16/06/19 14/07/19 11/08/19
Da
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r 100,0
00 p
op
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n
weekend bank holiday 7 day mov avg baseline Herpes Zoster
Daily incidence rate (and 7-day moving average*) per 100,000 population (all England, all ages).
17: Herpes zoster.
15: Pertussis.
Daily incidence rate (and 7-day moving average*) per 100,000 population (all England, all ages).
16: Chickenpox.
Daily incidence rate (and 7-day moving average*) per 100,000 population (all England, all ages).
Year: 2019 Week: 32
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
12/08/18 09/09/18 07/10/18 04/11/18 02/12/18 30/12/18 27/01/19 24/02/19 24/03/19 21/04/19 19/05/19 16/06/19 14/07/19 11/08/19
Da
ily r
ate
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r 100,0
00 p
op
ula
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n
weekend bank holiday 7 day mov avg baseline Chickenpox
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
12/08/18 09/09/18 07/10/18 04/11/18 02/12/18 30/12/18 27/01/19 24/02/19 24/03/19 21/04/19 19/05/19 16/06/19 14/07/19 11/08/19
Da
ily r
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r 100,0
00 p
op
ula
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n
weekend bank holiday 7 day mov avg baseline Impetigo
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
12/08/18 09/09/18 07/10/18 04/11/18 02/12/18 30/12/18 27/01/19 24/02/19 24/03/19 21/04/19 19/05/19 16/06/19 14/07/19 11/08/19
Da
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r 100,0
00 p
op
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weekend bank holiday 7 day mov avg baseline Cellulitis
GP In Hours
13 August 2019.
Page 11.
18: Cellulitis.
Daily incidence rate (and 7-day moving average*) per 100,000 population (all England, all ages).
19: Impetigo.
Daily incidence rate (and 7-day moving average*) per 100,000 population (all England, all ages).
* 7-day moving average adjusted for bank holidays.
Year: 2019 Week: 32
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
12/08/18 09/09/18 07/10/18 04/11/18 02/12/18 30/12/18 27/01/19 24/02/19 24/03/19 21/04/19 19/05/19 16/06/19 14/07/19 11/08/19
Da
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r 100,0
00 p
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weekend bank holiday 7 day mov avg Allergic Rhinitis baseline
20: Allergic rhinitis.
Daily incidence rate (and 7-day moving average*) per 100,000 population (all England, all ages).
21: Heat/sunstroke.
22: Insect bites.
0.00
0.02
0.04
0.06
0.08
0.10
0.12
0.14
0.16
0.18
0.20
12/08/18 09/09/18 07/10/18 04/11/18 02/12/18 30/12/18 27/01/19 24/02/19 24/03/19 21/04/19 19/05/19 16/06/19 14/07/19 11/08/19
Da
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00 p
op
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weekend bank holiday 7 day mov avg baseline Heat stroke
Daily incidence rate (and 7-day moving average*) per 100,000 population (all England, all ages).
Daily incidence rate (and 7-day moving average*) per 100,000 population (all England, all ages).
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
5.5
6.0
6.5
7.0
12/08/18 09/09/18 07/10/18 04/11/18 02/12/18 30/12/18 27/01/19 24/02/19 24/03/19 21/04/19 19/05/19 16/06/19 14/07/19 11/08/19
Da
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weekend bank holiday 7 day mov avg baseline Insect bite
GP In Hours
13 August 2019.
Page 12.
* 7-day moving average adjusted for bank holidays.
Year: 2019 Week: 32
GP In Hours
13 August 2019.
Page 13.
Notes and further information:
• The Public Health England GP in hours surveillance system is a syndromic surveillance system monitoring community-based morbidity recorded by GP practices.
• GP consultation data are analysed on a daily basis to identify national and regional trends. A statistical algorithm underpins each system, routinely identifying activity that has increased significantly or is statistically significantly high for the time of year. Results from these daily analyses are assessed by the ReSST, along with analysis by age group, and anything deemed of public health importance is alerted by the team.
• This system captures anonymised GP morbidity data from two GP clinical software systems, EMIS, from version 1 of the QSurveillance® database, and TPP SystmOne.
• Baselines represent seasonally expected levels of activity and are constructed from historical data since April 2012. They take into account any known substantial changes in data collection, population coverage or reporting practices. Gastroenteritis, diarrhoea and vomiting baselines also account for changes since the introduction of rotavirus vaccine in July 2013. Baselines are refreshed using the latest data on a regular basis.
Acknowledgements: We thank and acknowledge the University of Nottingham, ClinRisk® and the contribution of
EMIS and EMIS practices. Data source: version 1 of the QSurveillance® database. We thank TPP, ResearchOne and the SystmOne GP practices contributing to this surveillance system.
GP In Hours Syndromic Surveillance System Bulletin.
Produced by: PHE Real-time Syndromic Surveillance Team 1
st Floor, 5 St Philips Place, Birmingham, B3 2PW Tel: 0344 225 3560 > Option 4 > Option 2
Web: https://www.gov.uk/government/collections/syndromic-surveillance-systems-and-analyses
Contact ReSST: [email protected]
• From week 40 2018 the levels of influenza-like illness (ILI) rates are illustrated in the bulletin appendix maps. The ILI intensity levels are calculated using MEM.
• The current ILI thresholds are based upon previous influenza seasons from 2012/13 onwards and therefore illustrate activity levels in relation to previous ILI activity recorded in the GPIH system. IILI thresholds presented in the maps should be interpreted with caution and reference made to other GP surveillance systems incorporating more historical data, which are available in the PHE National Influenza Report.
https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/weekly-national-flu-reports
• The ILI thresholds have been calculated separately for each of the nine PHE Centres to allow for differences between areas e.g. background ILI rates are historically higher in London than other areas of England.
Maps:
Year: 2019 Week: 32
Moving Epidemic Method:
• During winter 2018/19 we presented Moving Epidemic Method (MEM) influenza thresholds on selected indicators.
• The moving epidemic method or MEM is a standard methodology used for setting influenza thresholds across many European nations.
1
• MEM is used for GP ILI thresholds at a national level and at PHE Centre level and stratified by age band.
• MEM thresholds should be interpreted using 7 day moving averages rather than daily data.
• MEM thresholds currently use five years of historic data (2013-2018). The thresholds are re-calculated every year.
• ‘Pre-epidemic thresholds’ are used alongside other surveillance systems to identify the start of influenza circulating in the community; 40%, 95% and 97.5% intensity thresholds are used to identify when influenza activity moves from low to medium, high or very high.
1Vega T et al. Influenza Other Respir Viruses. 2013;7(4):546-58.