gps shield - isnet
TRANSCRIPT
1GPS ShieldISA / ISNET Workshop Teheran12.9.2013 Andreas Hoechner
GPS Shield
2GPS ShieldISA / ISNET Workshop Teheran12.9.2013 Andreas Hoechner
Historical earthquakes
3GPS ShieldISA / ISNET Workshop Teheran12.9.2013 Andreas Hoechner
Early Warning Challenge Consider two scenarios for Padang, Sumatra:
Scenario 'West'
Scenario 'East'
Same epicenter and magnitude!
4GPS ShieldISA / ISNET Workshop Teheran12.9.2013 Andreas Hoechner
0 200 400
Distance from trench (km)
-200
0
200
400
600
Upl
ift (
cm) tren
ch
isla
nds
land
Scenario B
Scenario A
Profile sketch
6GPS ShieldISA / ISNET Workshop Teheran12.9.2013 Andreas Hoechner
How can we discriminate between the two scenarios? 'GPS-Shield'→
● Earthquake deforms earth's surface and seafloor
● GPS measures deformation on islands and at the coast
● Clever placing of stations allows reconstruction of the tsunami source
7GPS ShieldISA / ISNET Workshop Teheran12.9.2013 Andreas Hoechner
1. Produce synthetic earthquake signal. Calculate displacements at virtual GPS stations.
2. Apply random errors to displacements. This simulates finite accuracy of GPS real-time measurements.
3. Invert disturbed displacements at virtual stations for rupture parameters.
4. Using inverted rupture parameters, calculate Uz and compare with Uz from direct signal.
Can we determine earthquake parameters (i.e., slip distribution) using real-time GPS observations ?
Resolution analysis test procedure 1d
8GPS ShieldISA / ISNET Workshop Teheran12.9.2013 Andreas Hoechner
Absolute displacements:vertical: ±5 cmhorizontal: ±2.5 cm
Relative displacements:vertical: ±1.5 cmhorizontal: ±0.5 cm
Conservative resolution: ×2
Pessimistic resolution: ×4
Assumed GPS resolutions
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One station at Padang
10GPS ShieldISA / ISNET Workshop Teheran12.9.2013 Andreas Hoechner
Two stations at Siberut
11GPS ShieldISA / ISNET Workshop Teheran12.9.2013 Andreas Hoechner
Stations at Siberut and Padang
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Realistic resolution
Conservative
Pessimistic
Resolving power with distance from trench
Sobolev et al., EOS, 2006JGR, 2007
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GPS-shield
GPS-gradientmeter
Controlstation
GPS buoys are used where there are no islands
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GPS-shield applied to W/E scenarios
Forward Inversion
Forward Inversion
'West'
'East'
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GPS-shield applied to W/E scenarios
'West' 'East'
17GPS ShieldISA / ISNET Workshop Teheran12.9.2013 Andreas Hoechner
How much time?
GPS signals almost approach static valuesAfter 3 min:
Static values fully established. Rupture parameters resolved.After 6 min:
Uz
Synthetic displacement seismograms
18GPS ShieldISA / ISNET Workshop Teheran12.9.2013 Andreas Hoechner
Inversion every 30 s
19GPS ShieldISA / ISNET Workshop Teheran12.9.2013 Andreas Hoechner
Inversion every 30 s
Sobolev et al. 2007 JGR
20GPS ShieldISA / ISNET Workshop Teheran12.9.2013 Andreas Hoechner
Resolving power in space: Checkerboard test
21GPS ShieldISA / ISNET Workshop Teheran12.9.2013 Andreas Hoechner
Sensitivity analysis in Magnitude
● GPS-inversion works well for large earthquakes
● Small earthquakes generate much smaller displacements (logarithm of moment!), which could drop below noise level of GPS
● Static displacement decays much faster with distance than seismic waves
● Test: Construct large number of scenarios, add different noise levels to synthetic data, perform inversion (databank matching) for different constellations of GPS-stations
● Quality criterium: Magnitude recoverd ± 0.2 units, epicenter mismatch < 50 km
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Resolvable magnitude for 'ideal' GPS-shield
Diff. GPS noise level:“realistic”: horizontal +- 0.5 cm vertical +- 1.5 cm
23GPS ShieldISA / ISNET Workshop Teheran12.9.2013 Andreas Hoechner
Resolving power for Geophon-positions
Diff. GPS noise level:“realistic”: horizontal +- 0.5 cm vertical +- 1.5 cm
24GPS ShieldISA / ISNET Workshop Teheran12.9.2013 Andreas Hoechner
Resolving power of local Padang array
Diff. GPS noise level:“realistic”: horizontal +- 0.5 cm vertical +- 1.5 cm
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Global applicability
26GPS ShieldISA / ISNET Workshop Teheran12.9.2013 Andreas Hoechner
• Reliable prediction of tsunami wave heights for Padang can not be provided using traditional, earthquake-magnitude-based methods.
• For Sumatra, GPS-arrays placed at the Mentawai islands, will provide excellent resolution for the position and the height of the initial wave, and, thus, will be able to discriminate between dangerous- and less-dangerous scenarios for Padang.
• In the case of Java, GPS arrays deployed at the southern coast (~ 250 km from trench), will still provide good estimation of the maximum uplift and seismic moment (<10%).
• Qualified warning can be issued within 5 minutes after the shock, leaving another 15-20 min before tsunami hits the coast.
Conclusions