grain prices up: more bad news for global economy€¦ · grain prices up: more bad news for global...

September 4, 2012

ECONOMY AND STRATEGY GROUP – 514.879.2529 Stéfane Marion, Chief Economist and Strategist

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• Economic indicators review (p. 5)

• Things to watch

Economic calendar and significant earnings announcements of the week ahead (p. 6)

• Economic tables (p. 7)

Grain prices up: more bad news for global economy

Summary • Despite the weakness of the global economy, the price of certain

commodities has shot up over the summer. Oil has risen sharply on account of geopolitical tensions and renewed interest in risky assets. As for grain prices, they registered a spectacular hike on account of the drought plaguing the United States.

• As it happens, grain prices are strongly correlated with food inflation. This is why higher grain prices will have repercussions on global inflation over the coming months. There is reason to believe that global economic growth will probably be affected by this as well.

• However, the economies of the world will not be impacted equally by this increase. Indeed, currency fluctuations, food basket sensitivity to grain price changes, and proportion of spending devoted to food are factors that will attenuate or exacerbate the effects of this shock. What’s more, the lag in transmission to the consumption basket varies from country to country.

• By our calculations, the impact on Canada and the United States should be weaker than elsewhere. Relative to Canada, it will be twice as great in Germany and thrice as great in Ireland and Portugal, which is not at all encouraging for a region already in recession. As for the emerging countries, given the large proportion of spending devoted to food, the purchasing power loss is likely to be substantial there.

More bad news

The global economy is presently going through a rough patch. For some time now, the public finance crisis in Europe has been sapping confidence all around and, in 2012Q2, the global economy likely recorded its weakest growth since the 2008-2009 recession, as evidenced by the fact that industrial production stagnated in the quarter. Moreover, there is no indication from the PMI indexes that the situation will improve in Q3. Under the circumstances, central banks around the world have already embarked upon the path of monetary easing and further actions are being considered. It need be said, though, that the recent surge in grain prices has been a bolt out of the blue. On the one hand, it could lift inflation beyond levels previously forecast, thus making it harder for the central banks to argue, once again, that this inflation is no more than a fleeting blip. On the other hand, it could erode the purchasing power of consumers on a global scale and, in turn, reduce economic growth in the months ahead. The one thing certain, however, is that higher grain prices will affect different countries to varying degrees. In this Weekly Economic Letter, we will estimate the impact on various countries that have been in the spotlight of late.

Metals down, oil and grains up

The weakness of the global economy is reflected in metal prices. Indeed, the CRB metals index has been trending down since the beginning of the year and remains 24% below its peak in 2011 (Chart 1). In June, the grain index and the price of oil per barrel, too, were well off their levels from the previous year. All of this denoted a low-inflation environment. However, the situation has changed considerably over the course of a few weeks. Regarding oil, the price of a barrel has shot up 25% primarily on account of geopolitical risks related to the conflict in Syria and renewed interest in risky assets. As for grains, prices have taken off on account of the severe drought plaguing the United States.

L’HEBDO ÉCONOMIQUE

September 4, 2012 2

Chart 1

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World: no break for consumers? Commodity prices

NBF Economy and Strategy Group (data via Global Insight)

Index: Jan. 2010 = 100

How can a drought in one country have such a deep impact on world grain prices? First, it need be said that the drought in question is exceptionally severe, as evidenced by the temperature and precipitation data for this past May to July (Chart 2). As it turns out, in terms of temperature, this three-month period was the hottest since the great drought of 1934 that amplified problems related to the Great Depression. In terms of precipitation, this period was the 12th lowest since 1895. This extreme situation is all the more consequential for the global markets in that it has occurred in the country that is the world’s largest producer of corn and soybean and third largest producer of wheat.

Chart 2

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NBF Economy and Strategy Group (data via National Climatic Data Center)

Do not underestimate impact of price hike

A sudden increase in grain prices like the one presently observed has far-reaching ramifications for the global economy. This is because of the strong correlation between grain prices and food prices on the whole stemming from the fact that grains are used, among other things, in the production of meat, fish, dairy products and, of course, all bakery products. This relation is particularly

strong in the United States as evidenced by the correlation between annual growth in grain prices and annual growth in food prices over the period from 2006 to 2012 (Chart 3).

Chart 3

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Grain prices reflected in food bill Cereal prices and CPI food component in United States

*7-month lagNBF Economy and Strategy Group (data via Global Insight and OECD)

% (y/y) % (y/y)

However, we must take account of currency fluctuations as these can amplify or attenuate the impact of changes in prices denominated in U.S. dollars. Indeed, from May to August, grain prices in U.S. dollars sprang 28%. For eurozone residents, instead, the increase amounted to 30% owing to the euro’s depreciation over this period (Chart 4). In Canada, on the other hand, prices rose only 23% thanks to the loonie’s recent vigour.

Chart 4

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10Q1 10Q2 10Q3 10Q4 11Q1 11Q2 11Q3 11Q4 12Q1 12Q2 12Q3

Grain prices in euros

Grain prices in U.S. dollars

Food bill even heftier in euros Grain prices in euros and in U.S. dollars

NBF Economy and Strategy Group (data via Global Insight and OECD)

% (y/y)

Highly variable transmission lags

Despite this price hike, we must not expect an immediate jump in food inflation around the world. Indeed, most countries have transmission lags of more than 5 months. In the case of Japan, it is 10 months long (Chart 5). However, where China, Germany and Indonesia are concerned, the lag is very short–a mere two months–


September 4, 2012 3

which means that the effect could be felt as early as in 2012Q3 for those countries.

Chart 5

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JAP ITA CAN FRA ZAF GRC USA GBR IRE BRA ESP PRT CHI DEU IDN

Impact lag varies from country to country Number of months of lag for which correlation is strongest between grain prices and CPI food component

Months

NBF Economy and Strategy Group (data via Global Insight and OECD) In order to estimate the impact of the increase in grain prices, we first estimated for each country the relation that exists between world grain prices in the local currency and the food-basket price index. By way of these regressions, we were able to estimate what food inflation will be at its peak in the coming months if grain prices remain at their current level (Chart 6). Also, in order to get an idea of the impact of the shock of the past few months, we estimated what food inflation would have been if grain prices had remained at their June level. As it turns out, the food bill is much more sensitive to grain prices in the emerging countries. By our calculations, the shock of the past few months represents for China and Brazil a rise in food inflation of about 5 percentage points (pp). Among the developed countries, Ireland (2.9 pp), Great Britain (2.4 pp), Germany (2.1 pp) and the United States (2.0 pp) are the ones that should record the sharpest increase in food inflation attributable to the recent movement in grain prices.

Chart 6

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BRA IDN ZAF CHI GBR GRC ESP DEU USA IRE PRT CAN ITA FRA JAP

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Variable impact on food inflation Maximum food inflation on 18-month horizon

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NBF Economy and Strategy Group (data via OECD)

Food as % of spending varies across countries

In order to get an idea of the impact of this shock on total inflation, we need to know the weight that food spending represents in the total consumption basket of these different economies. As it happens, level of development as measured by GDP per capita is strongly correlated with proportion of spending devoted to food (Chart 7). In this regard, the rates for China (31%) and Brazil (23%) are significantly higher than those observed in the developed countries. Even among the advanced countries, however, these weights vary widely. In Japan, it stands at 19%. In the United States, instead, food accounts for only 8% of household spending.

Chart 7

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NBF Economy and Strategy Group (data via OECD)

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By our calculations, the recent shock on grain prices will have a very variable impact on total inflation at its pinnacle in 2013. Indeed, among the countries considered, the impact will be weakest in Canada, where annual inflation should rise 0.11 pp. The United States, too, will be particularly spared, as the increase should not exceed 0.16 pp. As for the European countries, the impact in France (0.19 pp) and Germany (0.22 pp) should be slightly greater than in the United States. However, it should be markedly greater in Ireland (0.33 pp), Portugal (0.33 pp) and the United Kingdom (0.27 pp). In China, given the high sensitivity of food prices and the proportion of household spending devoted to food, this summer’s shock should ultimately translate into an increase in inflation of 1.48 pp. The increase should be substantial also in Brazil (1.13 pp), which saw its currency depreciate considerably over the summer.

Chart 8

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North America spared more than elsewhere Percentage-point increase in total inflation attributable to recent price surge

pp

NBF Economy and Strategy Group (data via Global Insight and OECD)

Conclusion

The worst drought in the United States since the 1930s has provoked a substantial increase in grain prices around the world. This increase has far-reaching ramifications for the global economy. In the United States, the shock should represent an increase in annual total inflation of 0.16 pp in the end. However, in other developed countries such as Portugal (0.33 pp) and the United Kingdom (0.27 pp), the shock’s impact should be considerably greater. In Germany, though it should prove only slightly greater than in the United States, the impact will be felt much sooner on account of the much shorter transmission lag there. In the emerging countries, given that the food price index is more sensitive to changes in grain prices and that food represents a larger proportion of household spending, the shock will be substantial as evidenced by the impact estimated for China (1.48 pp) and Brazil (1.13 pp).

We believe that, in the present context fraught with uncertainty, workers will have a hard time obtaining wage gains to compensate in full for this loss of purchasing power exacerbated by surging gasoline prices. As a result, consumption is likely to moderate going forward.

Matthieu Arseneau – Senior Economist 514 879-2252 – [email protected]

WEEKLY ECONOMIC LETTER

ECONOMIC INDICATORS REVIEW

September 4, 2012 5

Canada – Canadian GDP grew 1.8% annualized in the

second quarter of 2012. The prior quarter was, however, revised down one tick to 1.8%. Domestic demand grew 1.7% in Q2 as tepid consumption spending (+1.1%) and the sixth consecutive quarterly drag from government spending offset the strong performance from business investment (+7.2% for machinery and equipment). Residential construction grew just 1.7% after a strong Q1. Trade was a drag on growth, as the weak global economy in Q2 caused exports to grow just 0.8% while imports grew 6.4%. With consumption treading water, those imports went into inventories, the latter contributing 1.7% to GDP). The savings rate shot up five ticks to 3.6% as income grew faster than consumption in Q2 (middle chart). For the first time since the 2009 recession, nominal GDP (+0.5%) grew less than real GDP, suggesting deflation in the quarter. The monthly GDP data showed a 0.2% increase in output in June. The resources sector did well and offset weakness in manufacturing, wholesaling and retailing among others. Still, for the first half of 2012 as a whole, most sectors of the economy show a deceleration from the last half of 2011, including the resources, manufacturing and retailing sectors. While it was a bit better than expected, Q2 GDP report was soft in the details, with much of the growth coming from inventory accumulation. The latter is a negative for Q3 production.

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NBF Economy & Strategy (data via Global Insight)

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Consumption 0.7% 0.4% 1.6%Business investm. 1.1% 0.7% 0.6%Residential investm. 0.1% 0.8% 0.2%Government -0.1% -0.6% -0.7%Domestic Demand 1.8% 1.3% 1.6%

Exports 0.2% 1.3% 2.2%Imports 2.1% 1.7% 0.8%Trade -1.8% -0.4% 1.5%

Inventories 1.7% 0.8% -1.5%Stat.discrepancy 0.1% 0.1% 0.3%

Real GDP Contributions to real GDP

Canada’s broadest measure of trade, the current account, showed a deficit of C$16bn in the second quarter of 2012 (roughly 3.5% of GDP), a deterioration from the C$10.2 bn deficit in the prior quarter. The deterioration in Q2 was largely a result of the merchandise trade account which fell into a deficit of C$3.6 bn after posting a C$2.3 bn surplus in the prior quarter. There was also a small deterioration on the investment income account whose deficit widened by C$153 mn to C$5.5 bn. Those more than offset the small improvement on the services trade account which, however, remained in a deficit at -C$6.2 bn. In Q2, the

current account deficit was financed primarily by short-term capital flows such as net portfolio inflows, but there were also inflows of more stable foreign direct investment, although the latter's +C$9.2bn pales in comparison to the prior quarter's FDI inflows.

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Current accountdeep in the red …

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The Teranet–National Bank National Composite House Price Index rose 0.1% in July on a seasonally-adjusted basis. That was the smallest gain since October 2010. Prices decreased 0.7% in Calgary, 0.4% in Vancouver and 0.3% in Ottawa-Gatineau. But those were offset by price increases in the other eight metropolitan areas covered. On a year-on-year basis, the overall index rose 4.8% in July, with Toronto, Hamilton, Winnipeg and Halifax exceeding the national average, while others lagged. Victoria was the only city where prices were down on a year-on-year basis.

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Canada's Survey of Employment, Payrolls and Hours (SEPH) which surveys establishments (as opposed to the Labour Force survey, which surveys households), showed that Canada gained 35K jobs in June (compared to the 12,800 increase in paid jobs in the month's LFS). According to the SEPH, average weekly earnings rose 0.6% in June, taking year-on-year gains to 3%, the highest since May last


ECONOMIC INDICATORS REVIEW

September 4, 2012 6

year. Average weekly hours worked rose 0.9% to 33.2 from 32.9 in May. So, the higher weekly earnings in June came primarily from more hours worked rather than from better wages, a change from what was observed in earlier months.

United States – As we had expected, Chairman

Bernanke's speech at Jackson Hole provided little new information other than what was presented in the recent Fed minutes. The Chairman acknowledged that the economic situation is far from satisfactory and said that the Fed will provide additional policy accommodation as needed, without providing specifics about the type of action and the timing. But he left the door open for QE3 by saying: "The costs of nontraditional policies, when considered carefully, appear manageable, implying that we should not rule out the further use of such policies if economic conditions warrant"

Second quarter GDP, initially estimated by the BEA at 1.5% annualized, was revised up to 1.7%, matching consensus expectations. There was a bigger contribution to GDP, relative to the first estimate, from final sales which grew 2% (versus the first estimate's 1.2%). That's because personal consumption spending was revised up to +1.7% from +1.5%, and also because trade turned into a net contributor as exports were revised up and imports down. Government remained a drag on GDP, albeit to a slightly lesser extent than in the first estimate. All of those more than offset the downward revision to investment spending and inventories, the latter being a drag on Q2 GDP (after being a contributor in the first estimate).

Personal income grew 0.3% in July, after a similar gain in the prior month. Disposable income also rose 0.3% in both nominal and real terms. Personal spending rose 0.4% after a flat June. In real terms, spending was also up 0.4% in July, more than making up for the 0.1% drop in the prior month. With spending rising faster than income, the savings rate dropped one tick to 4.2%. Also for July, the PCE deflator was flat, causing the year-on-year rate to drop to 1.3% (the lowest since October 2009). The core PCE deflator was also flat in the month, allowing the year-on-year rate to drop two ticks to 1.6%.

The Case-Shiller home price index rose a consensus-topping 0.9% on a seasonally-adjusted basis in June. That was the fifth consecutive monthly increase. So much so that home prices are now up a stunning 9% annualized over the period February-June. That's the sharpest 5-month gain since end 2005-early 2006. With June's increase, US home

prices are now up 0.5% on a year-on-year basis, the first time in two years that measure has printed positive.

Consumer confidence fell sharply in August according to the Conference Board's index. The latter fell almost 5 points to 60.6, the lowest since November of last year. In August, consumers were less upbeat about the outlook (sub-index fell to 70.5 after a brief surge in July). When asked about employment prospects, respondents were less upbeat, with 93% of respondents stating that jobs were either not so plentiful or hard to get. That's the highest percentage since February. There was less eagerness to buy autos and major appliances, reflecting the lower overall confidence, although intentions of buying a home rose a bit.

Factory orders rose 2.8% in July buoyed by aircrafts. But orders of non-defense capital goods excluding aircrafts fell 4%, for a second consecutive drop. That doesn’t bode well for investment spending in Q3.

Weekly initial jobless claims for the week of August 25th was flat at 374K (the prior week was revised up a bit), disappointing consensus which was expecting 370K. The more reliable 4-week moving average rose for the second week in a row to 370K. Continuing claims fell 5K to 3.316 million from an upwardly revised 3.321 million.

Global – In Germany the IFO business climate indicator

fell in August to the lowest since 2010. Consumers were also under pressure as evidenced by the unexpected 0.9% drop in German retail sales in July. The eurozone’s unemployment rate held steady at a euro-era high of 11.3% in July. In China, the leading indicator for August fell to the lowest since 2009, suggesting a further deceleration in GDP growth in Q3.

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NBF Economy & Strategy (data via Bloomberg)

Index


THINGS TO WATCH – Canada & US

September 4, 2012 7

Consensus Cons.

Estimate EPS

10:00 US ISM Manufacturing Aug 49.8 50.0 49.6 Campbell Soup Co Bef-mkt Q4 2012 0.38

17:00 US Total Vehicle Sales Aug 14.05M 14.20M 14.00M

7:00 US MBA Mortgage Applications Aug-31 -4.30% -- Nordion Inc Aft-mkt Q3 2012 0.19

8:30 US Nonfarm Productivity 2Q F 1.60% 1.80% 1.70% Harry Winston Diamond Aft-mkt Q2 2013 0.15

9:00 CA Bank of Canada Rate Sep-05 1.00% 1.00% 1.00% Alim. Couche Tard Inc 0:00 Q1 2013 0.88

H&R Block Inc Aft-mkt Q1 2013 -0.37

8:30 US Initial Jobless Claims Sep-01 374K 370K Transcontinental Inc 0:00 Q3 2012 0.41

10:00 US ISM Non-Manf. Composite Aug 52.6 52.5 52.0 North West Co Inc/The 0:00 Q2 2013 0.36

Major Drilling Group Intern 0:00 Q1 2013 0.39

Kroger Co/The 0:00 Q2 2013 0.49

8:30 CA Unemployment Rate Aug 7.30% 7.30% 7.30% Torex Gold Res. Inc 0:00 Q3 2012 -0.02

8:30 US Change in Nonfarm Payrolls Aug 163K 125K 95K Viterra Inc 0:00 Q3 2012 0.30

8:30 CA Net Change in Employment Aug -30.4K 11.0K -5K

8:30 US Unemployment Rate Aug 8.30% 8.30% 8.30%

8:30 CA Building Permits MoM Jul -2.50% -0.60%

Source: Bloomberg

Earnings announcementsCountry Release NBF

EstimateCompany Time Qtr

Economic releases & eventsPeriod PreviousTime

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ECONOMIC TABLES

September 4, 2012 8

TABLE 1 - NORTH AMERICAN FINANCIAL INDICATORSAugust 31, 2012

Monthly Growth (%) Annualized Growth Cumulated since

Growth Rates Unless Reference Past Prev. Month Average of the last Since beginning of year

Otherwise Indicated Period Level Month Month Before 3 Mos. 6 Mos. 12 Mos. ref. prec.

UNITED STATESMONETARY AGGREGATES ($Billions)

M1 July 2012 2319 2.8 0.4 -0.4 7.4 9.6 15.7 17.3 12.3

M2 July 2012 10021 0.8 0.5 0.4 5.7 6.8 8.1 9.7 5.6CREDIT MEASURES

Consumer Credit June 2012 2577 0.3 0.7 0.3 5.4 6.1 5.1 4.8 0.7Mortgage (Banks) July 2012 3519 0.0 -0.3 -0.1 -1.3 2.4 0.9 -0.2 -4.7Business July 2012 1452 1.1 1.6 0.6 13.7 14.6 14.2 13.1 1.2

CANADAMONETARY AGGREGATES

M2+ gross June 2012 1477 0.9 0.7 0.5 6.1 5.9 6.7 6.1 3.8Personal Deposits (Banks) (2) July 2012 733 0.5 0.7 0.3 4.7 5.1 6.2 5.8 4.2

CREDIT MEASURESConsumer June 2012 493 0.4 0.3 0.1 2.2 2.2 2.9 2.7 3.8Mortgages June 2012 1145 0.6 0.5 0.4 6.6 6.9 7.0 7.3 7.6Short - Term Business Loans * July 2012 367 1.3 0.5 0.2 9.5 8.2 7.9 7.4 2.8Business (S.T. + L.T.) * July 2012 1349 0.6 0.4 0.5 6.8 5.1 5.2 4.9 5.1Private (Consumer+Business) * June 2012 2977 0.5 0.5 0.5 6.0 5.1 5.4 5.4 5.8Gov. of Canada securities outstanding July 2012 638 0.4 -1.4 2.6 9.3 4.7 5.8 5.9 6.4

INTEREST AND EXCHANGE RATESReference Last 1 week 2 w. Average of last Thursdays 13 w. 26 w. 52 w.Thursday day ago ago 13 w. 26 w. 52 w. ago ago ago

UNITED STATESINTEREST RATES

Federal Funds Target Rate * 30 Aug 12 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25Prime Rate * 30 Aug 12 3.25 3.25 3.25 3.25 3.25 3.25 3.25 3.25 3.253-month Treasury Bills * 30 Aug 12 0.10 0.11 0.09 0.10 0.09 0.06 0.07 0.08 0.022-year Bonds * 30 Aug 12 0.26 0.26 0.29 0.27 0.29 0.27 0.26 0.30 0.195-year Bonds * 30 Aug 12 0.65 0.69 0.82 0.68 0.78 0.84 0.65 0.90 0.9110-year Bonds * 30 Aug 12 1.62 1.67 1.84 1.59 1.78 1.89 1.58 2.04 2.1530-year Bonds * 30 Aug 12 2.74 2.78 2.96 2.69 2.90 2.99 2.67 3.15 3.51Corporate High-yield (Lehman) * 30 Aug 12 6.74 6.78 6.87 7.16 7.24 7.78 7.88 7.01 8.41Corporate Invest. Grade (Lehman) * 30 Aug 12 2.95 2.96 3.12 3.12 3.23 3.47 3.33 3.28 3.64

SPREADSCorp. High-yield - Treas. 10y. * 30 Aug 12 5.12 5.12 5.03 5.57 5.46 5.89 6.30 4.97 6.27Corp. Invest. grade - Treas. 10y. * 30 Aug 12 1.33 1.30 1.28 1.53 1.44 1.58 1.75 1.24 1.50Treasuries 30y. - 3-m. T.B. * 30 Aug 12 2.64 2.67 2.87 2.59 2.81 2.93 2.60 3.07 3.49

EXCHANGE RATEMajor currencies, traded-weighted * 30 Aug 12 73.86 73.70 74.13 74.88 74.11 73.23 75.59 72.20 69.05

CANADAINTEREST RATES

Prime Rate * 30 Aug 12 3.00 3.00 3.00 3.00 3.00 3.00 3.00 3.00 3.00Target overnight rate * 30 Aug 12 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.0030-day commercial paper * 30 Aug 12 1.19 1.22 1.17 1.18 1.19 1.17 1.22 1.20 1.163-month Treasury Bills * 30 Aug 12 1.03 1.01 1.01 0.93 0.95 0.91 0.95 0.94 0.951-year Treasury Bills * 30 Aug 12 1.13 1.12 1.18 1.04 1.09 1.01 1.02 1.05 0.975-year Bonds * 30 Aug 12 1.32 1.36 1.51 1.29 1.41 1.40 1.31 1.44 1.6810-year Bonds * 30 Aug 12 1.77 1.84 1.96 1.75 1.89 1.99 1.79 1.98 2.4930-year Bonds * 30 Aug 12 2.34 2.41 2.49 2.33 2.45 2.57 2.33 2.60 3.10

SPREADSPrime - 30d. Commercial paper * 30 Aug 12 1.81 1.78 1.83 1.82 1.81 1.83 1.78 1.80 1.84Long Term - Short Term * 30 Aug 12 1.31 1.40 1.48 1.40 1.50 1.66 1.38 1.66 2.15

CANADA UNITED STATES SPREADS3-month T-Bills * 30 Aug 12 0.93 0.90 0.92 0.84 0.86 0.85 0.88 0.86 0.93Long Term Bonds * 30 Aug 12 -0.40 -0.37 -0.47 -0.36 -0.45 -0.42 -0.34 -0.55 -0.41

EXCHANGE RATEUS$ /CDN$ (GTIS) * 30 Aug 12 1.0076 1.0061 1.0136 0.9899 0.9944 0.9909 0.9677 1.0143 1.0246Trade-weighted (1990=100) G-10 * 30 Aug 12 113.9 113.8 114.5 112.1 112.4 111.6 109.3 114.1 114.3

STOCK INDICES Monthly Growth (%) Growth Over (%) SinceReference Past Prev. Month beginning of yearThursday Level Month Month Before 3 Months 6 Months 1 Year ref. prec.

Dow Jones (U.S.) * 30 Aug 12 13000.7 -0.1 1.0 3.9 4.9 0.4 11.9 6.4 0.3S&P 500 (U.S.) * 30 Aug 12 1399.5 1.5 1.3 4.0 6.8 2.5 14.8 11.3 -3.1NASDAQ (U.S.) * 30 Aug 12 3048.7 3.7 0.2 3.8 7.8 2.8 18.2 17.0 -2.8S&P/TSX (Can.) * 30 Aug 12 11886.7 1.9 0.6 0.7 3.2 -6.0 -6.9 -0.6 -5.0

* Update (1) Commercial Banks (2) Not seasonnally adjusted Source: Datastream


ECONOMIC TABLES

September 4, 2012 9

TABLE 2 - UNITED STATES ECONOMIC INDICATORSAugust 31, 2012

Annualized Growth (%) Cumulated since


Otherwise Indicated Period Month Month Before 3 Mos. 6 Mos. 12 Mos. 12 Mos. ref. prec.

Index of 12 Leading Indicators July 2012 0.4 -0.4 0.3 0.7 3.3 2.9 1.5 2.1 5.9Consumer Confidence Index (1985=100) * Aug 2012 60.6 65.4 62.7 62.9 65.2 61.0 45.2 65.6 61.3I.S.M. Manufacturing Index (level) July 2012 49.8 49.7 53.5 51.0 52.3 52.5 51.4 52.5 57.2

July 2012 57.2 51.7 55.6 54.8 56.8 56.6 57.2 57.2 58.4

DOMESTIC DEMANDSales new autos & light trucks (000,000) July 2012 14.1 14.4 14.0 14.1 14.2 13.8 12.4 14.2 12.6Retail Sales July 2012 0.8 -0.7 -0.1 -2.2 4.3 6.4 4.1 5.4 8.2

- Motor vehicle July 2012 0.8 -0.5 0.8 2.5 6.8 8.0 8.2 7.7 12.8- Other July 2012 0.8 -0.8 -0.3 -3.2 3.8 6.0 3.2 4.9 8.2

Consumer Spending: Total ($ current) * July 2012 0.4 0.0 -0.2 1.0 3.8 4.2 3.3 3.8 5.2Total ($ constant) * July 2012 0.4 -0.1 0.0 1.1 2.2 2.0 2.0 1.9 2.9

Personal Income * July 2012 0.3 0.3 0.3 3.6 5.0 3.6 3.6 3.2 5.7Personal Savings Rate (3) * July 2012 4.2 4.3 4.0 4.2 3.9 3.7 4.2 3.9 4.7New Orders * July 2012 2.8 -0.5 0.5 -0.3 0.6 6.9 1.9 4.2 12.6

- Non-Defence Capital Goods exc. Aircraft * July 2012 -4.0 -2.7 2.3 -10.2 -1.5 5.0 -6.2 2.7 11.9Unfilled Orders * July 2012 0.8 0.4 0.0 1.8 8.0 9.3 8.0 9.2 9.9Business Inventories June 2012 0.1 0.3 0.3 3.6 5.7 7.7 5.0 6.3 10.2Inventories / Shipments Businesses June 2012 1.29 1.27 1.26 1.27 1.27 1.26 1.26 1.27 1.26Manufacturers' Shipments * July 2012 2.0 -1.2 0.3 0.2 3.0 7.1 2.4 4.8 12.6Manufacturers' Inventories * July 2012 0.5 -0.1 -0.1 -0.7 2.8 7.7 3.1 5.3 12.0Inventories / Shipments Manuf. * July 2012 1.27 1.29 1.27 1.28 1.28 1.28 1.26 1.28 1.27Housing Starts (000) (1) July 2012 746 754 706 735 730 697 614 728 583New Home Sales July 2012 3.6 -3.5 3.9 10.4 29.2 13.6 25.3 19.7 -10.6Existing Home Sales July 2012 2.1 -5.1 0.5 -4.5 5.3 9.5 9.9 7.9 -3.6

PRODUCTIONIndustrial Production July 2012 0.6 0.1 0.1 2.9 4.3 4.2 4.4 4.5 4.3

- Consumer Goods July 2012 0.6 -0.4 0.9 3.8 1.4 2.5 1.8 2.2 2.0- Hitech goods July 2012 1.6 1.2 -0.5 5.1 0.1 1.0 0.8 -0.7 8.0

EXTERNAL AND FISCAL BALANCESExports June 2012 0.9 0.3 -0.9 6.1 4.4 9.0 7.1 5.9 16.2Imports June 2012 -1.5 -0.8 -1.6 -0.8 5.2 8.9 2.2 5.7 15.6Merch. Trade Balance ($ billions) June 2012 -42.9 -48.0 -50.6 -47.2 -48.8 -47.8 -50.3 -48.8 -46.5Real merchandise trade balance June 2012 -44.2 -47.7 -48.9 -46.9 -47.4 -47.4 -50.5 -47.4 -48.4Federal budget balance last 12 months (2) July 2012 -1170.7 -1230.5 -1213.8 -1225.0 -652.1 -730.9

INFLATION AND COSTSConsumer Prices July 2012 0.0 0.0 -0.3 -0.5 1.6 2.8 1.4 2.2 2.9

- Excluding Food and Energy July 2012 0.1 0.2 0.2 2.5 2.2 2.2 2.1 2.2 1.4PCE Deflator exc. Food and Energy * July 2012 0.0 0.2 0.1 1.6 1.9 1.8 1.6 1.8 1.3Industrial Prices, Finished Goods July 2012 0.3 0.1 -1.0 -4.2 0.0 3.7 0.5 2.0 5.9Average Hourly Earnings (4) July 2012 0.1 0.3 -0.1 1.4 1.4 1.7 1.3 1.5 2.1Industrial Capacity Utilization Rate July 2012 79.3 78.9 78.9 79.0 78.9 78.3 77.0 78.9 76.3Median Price, Single-Family Homes (5) July 2012 -0.8 5.2 3.5 61.0 15.8 0.7 9.6 4.6 -4.6

LABOUR MARKETNew Jobs (000) (6) July 2012 163 64 87 105 131 153 1838 1059 1061

- Manufacturing (000) July 2012 25 10 13 16 22 19 222 182 193- Services (000) July 2012 139 51 102 97 116 130 1565 891 775

Average weekly hours (6) July 2012 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.8 2.4 2.4 2.0 2.4 2.5Civilian Unemployment Rate (7) July 2012 8.3 8.2 8.2 8.2 8.2 8.5 9.1 8.2 9.0

NATIONAL ACCOUNTS AND OTHER Annualized Growth RatesQUARTERLY INDICATORS Q2 2012 Q1 2012 Q4 2011 Q3 2011 Q2 2011 Q2 2011 2011 2010 2009

GDP Chained 2005 dollars * 1.7 2.0 4.1 1.3 2.5 0.1 1.8 2.4 -3.1Consumption * 1.7 2.4 2.0 1.7 1.0 3.1 2.5 1.8 -1.9Residential Construction * 8.9 20.6 12.0 1.4 4.2 -1.4 -1.4 -3.7 -22.4Business Investment * 4.2 7.5 9.5 19.0 14.5 -1.3 8.6 0.7 -18.1

- Machinery and Equipment * 4.7 5.4 8.8 18.3 7.8 11.1 11.0 8.9 -16.4Government Spending * -0.9 -3.0 -2.2 -2.9 -0.8 -7.0 -3.1 0.6 3.7Exports * 6.0 4.4 1.4 6.1 4.1 5.7 6.7 11.1 -9.1Imports * 2.9 3.1 4.9 4.7 0.1 4.2 4.8 12.5 -13.5Change in Inventories (1) (2) * 49.9 56.9 70.5 -4.3 27.5 30.3 31.0 50.9 -139.0GDP Deflator * 1.6 2.2 0.1 3.0 2.6 2.1 2.1 1.3 0.9Personal Disposable Income * 3.1 3.7 -0.2 -1.3 -1.5 4.4 1.3 1.8 -2.8

Q2 2012 Q1 2012 Q4 2011 Q3 2011 Q2 2011 Q1 2011 2011 2010 2009Labour Productivity (4) 1.6 -0.5 2.8 0.6 1.2 -2.0 0.7 3.1 2.9Unit Labor Costs (4) 1.7 5.6 -3.3 -0.6 -1.3 11.3 1.9 -1.1 -1.3

Q1 2012 Q4 2011 Q3 2011 Q2 2011 Q1 2011 Q4 2010 2011 2010 2009Current Account (current $) -549.3 -474.6 -432.6 -476.5 -480.0 -418.7 -465.9 -442.0 -381.9

as a % of GDP -3.5 -3.1 -2.9 -3.2 -3.2 -2.8 -3.1 -3.0 -2.7Q2 2012 Q1 2012 Q4 2011 Q3 2011 Q2 2011 Q1 2011 2011 2010 2009

Corporate Profits (8) * 2.2 -10.4 29.6 6.7 19.3 -13.9 7.3 26.8 7.5as a % of GDP 12.2 12.3 12.7 12.1 12.0 11.6 12.1 12.6 13.1

* Update Source: Datastream(1) Annual Rate (5) Existing Homes Sold(2) $ Billions (6) Non-Farm Payroll Survey(3) Personal Savings as a % of Personal Disposable Income (7) Household Survey(4) Nonfarm Business (8) Current $ and before taxes

Monthly Growth (%)

- Non-manufacturing (level)


ECONOMIC TABLES

September 4, 2012 10

TABLE 3 - CANADIAN ECONOMIC INDICATORSAugust 31, 2012




Index of Leading Indicators (Stat. Can.) April 2012 0.3 0.3 0.7 6.8 5.5 5.6 4.9 5.4 7.3CFIB Business Barometer ® July 2012 -1.9 -4.2 -2.3 -22.3 3.2 -4.8 -10.8 -5.5 1.8

DOMESTIC DEMANDRetail Sales ($ current) June 2012 -0.4 0.2 -0.6 -1.9 1.9 3.9 1.7 3.4 3.7

- Motor vehicle and parts dealers June 2012 -0.4 -0.5 -1.3 -8.5 5.6 6.3 2.4 7.6 4.6- Other June 2012 -0.4 0.4 -0.4 0.0 0.9 3.2 1.5 2.3 4.4

Retail Sales ($ constant) June 2012 -0.1 0.6 -0.8 -2.0 1.1 2.0 0.7 2.2 1.9

Manufacturer's Shipments ($ current) June 2012 -0.4 0.0 -0.7 1.1 0.9 7.1 6.9 5.5 6.8New Orders June 2012 1.7 0.4 -2.7 0.8 2.1 7.3 5.7 4.1 8.7

- Durables June 2012 5.2 3.4 -3.5 13.8 5.9 9.1 10.7 5.3 11.2Unfilled Orders June 2012 2.2 0.5 0.2 13.2 5.6 14.1 9.9 12.6 5.1Manufacturer's Inventories June 2012 -1.7 1.2 1.3 2.4 2.4 6.4 2.3 4.8 6.5Inventories / Shipments Ratio June 2012 1.32 1.34 1.32 1.33 1.33 1.32 1.38 1.33 1.34Manufacturer's Shipments ($ constant) June 2012 0.1 0.6 -0.2 5.8 2.0 4.6 7.7 4.1 2.8

Housing Starts (000) (1) July 2012 208.5 222.1 216.2 215.6 219.6 209.7 213.1 216.8 188.7Number of existing homes sold (MLS) July 2012 0.0 -1.7 -3.4 -13.9 3.4 6.1 1.9 4.3 -1.9Number of commercial bankrupties (2) Oct 1900 -7.4 2.9 -9.2 -24.5 -1.2 -9.7 -18.8 -11.5 -12.8

PRODUCTION Real Domestic Product * June 2012 0.2 0.1 0.4 2.0 1.7 2.2 2.4 2.0 2.8

- Manufacturing * June 2012 -0.2 -0.5 0.7 2.0 2.4 2.7 3.4 2.8 2.2- Construction * June 2012 0.1 0.0 0.4 5.2 4.4 3.5 3.8 3.7 5.0

Services * June 2012 0.1 0.1 0.1 1.2 1.6 2.0 1.8 1.8 2.3

EXTERNAL, FISCAL AND EXCHANGE BALANCESExports June 2012 0.2 0.0 -1.5 -10.9 0.8 11.1 6.8 7.4 11.3Imports June 2012 2.3 1.0 0.0 7.0 5.7 8.2 7.4 6.9 10.9

- Capital Goods June 2012 3.2 -0.7 0.1 11.6 5.9 6.3 4.7 6.3 15.6Merch. Trade Balance ($ millions) June 2012 -1,806 -954 -531 -1,097 -188 278 -1,478 -188 -358Change in Official Reserves June 2012 -2,481 -845 194 -1,044 67 311 3,730 399 6,211

Level (US$): $66.2 billion Fiscal year Fed. budget balance last 12 months ($ billions) * June 2012 -20.0 -21.1 -23.1 -33.8 -2.0 -5.5

INFLATION AND COSTSConsumer Prices July 2012 -0.1 -0.4 -0.1 0.1 1.9 2.3 1.3 1.9 2.9

- Excluding Food and Energy July 2012 -0.3 -0.4 0.1 0.5 1.5 1.6 1.3 1.6 1.6- Core inflation (4) July 2012 -0.1 -0.4 0.2 0.9 1.7 2.0 1.7 2.0 1.5

Average Hourly Earnings (2) July 2012 -0.8 -0.1 -0.3 -2.4 2.9 2.3 3.6 2.7 2.2Price of New Housing icluding land June 2012 0.2 0.3 0.2 2.9 2.4 2.4 2.3 2.4 2.0Avg. Price of Existing Homes Sold (MLS) July 2012 -0.8 -0.5 -1.5 -9.8 2.2 2.2 -1.0 0.1 8.4Industrial Prices (1992=100) * July 2012 -0.5 -0.3 -0.2 -1.7 0.4 2.5 0.3 1.1 4.7

LABOUR MARKETLabour Force July 2012 0.0 -0.1 0.1 1.4 1.0 0.8 0.9 0.8 1.1Job creation (000) July 2012 -30.4 7.3 7.7 -5.1 20.4 11.6 139.2 124.6 175.4

- Manufacturing July 2012 -18.4 -0.8 36.4 5.7 9.9 2.4 28.8 69.7 -7.7- Services July 2012 -17.0 28.4 -3.4 2.7 5.5 7.0 84.4 26.0 124.7- Full Time July 2012 21.2 29.3 1.4 17.3 29.1 16.6 198.9 171.3 177.4- Part Time July 2012 -51.6 -22.0 6.3 -22.4 -8.8 -5.0 -59.7 -46.7 -2.0

Unemployment Rate July 2012 7.3 7.2 7.3 7.3 7.3 7.4 7.3 7.3 7.5

NATIONAL ACCOUNTS AND OTHER Annualized Growth RatesQUARTERLY INDICATORS Q2 2012 Q1 2012 Q4 2011 Q3 2011 Q2 2011 Q1 2011 2011 2010 2009

GDP Chained (2002) $ * 1.8 1.8 1.9 4.5 -1.0 3.6 2.4 3.2 -2.8Consumption * 1.1 0.7 2.8 2.1 2.1 1.3 2.4 3.3 0.4Business Investments * 9.4 5.8 4.9 1.9 13.8 14.6 13.1 7.3 -20.8

-Machinery and Equipment * 7.2 4.0 -3.7 -12.1 28.8 13.4 12.5 11.8 -19.5Residential Construction * 1.8 11.5 3.0 10.5 2.1 5.4 2.3 10.2 -8.0Government Expenditures * -0.5 -2.1 0.4 1.5 -0.5 -0.4 0.8 2.4 3.6Government Nonresidential Investments * -0.7 -3.1 -19.5 -17.5 -10.9 -5.7 -3.2 18.3 8.5Final Domestic Demand * 1.7 1.3 1.6 1.7 2.2 2.3 3.0 4.5 -2.1Exports * 0.8 4.0 7.2 15.5 -4.9 4.2 4.6 6.4 -13.8Imports * 6.4 5.2 2.3 -3.9 14.3 10.5 7.0 13.1 -13.4Change in Inventories (1) * 15.2 8.2 5.3 11.2 21.7 13.1 12.8 8.9 -0.5Real Disposible Income * 3.5 0.1 2.5 -0.3 0.3 0.8 1.3 3.5 0.9Personal savings Rate * 3.6 3.1 3.1 3.3 3.9 4.3 3.6 4.8 4.6GDP Price Deflator * -1.2 0.0 4.2 1.3 2.9 4.6 3.4 2.9 -1.9Corporate Profits (nominal) * -17.5 -14.0 21.4 18.2 -4.3 21.7 15.4 21.2 -33.1

as a % of GDP * 11.5 12.0 12.5 12.1 11.8 12.0 12.1 11.1 9.8Indust. Capacity Utilization Rate * n.a. 80.7 80.5 79.9 79.1 79.7 79.8 77.3 72.0Labour Productivity, Business Sector * n.a. 0.4 3.1 2.7 -3.7 2.7 0.8 1.5 0.0Unit Labour Cost, Business Sector * n.a. 1.6 3.2 -2.8 3.9 2.3 2.1 0.8 1.9

Q2 2012 Q1 2012 Q4 2011 Q3 2011 Q2 2011 Q1 2011 2011 2010 2009Current Account (current $) (1) * -64.1 -40.6 -38.7 -47.8 -63.7 -43.4 -48.4 -50.9 -45.2

as a % of GDP * -3.6 -2.3 -2.2 -2.8 -3.7 -2.6 -2.8 -3.0 -2.8Source: Datastrream and Canadian Real Estate Association* Update(1) Annual Rate, $ billions(2) Not Seasonally Adjusted(3) Current and before taxes

Monthly Growth (%)

(4) C.P.I. excluding the 8 most volatile components and the effect of indirect taxes


ECONOMIC TABLES


TABLE 4 - PROVINCIAL ECONOMIC INDICATORSAugust 31, 2012




QUEBECDOMESTIC DEMAND AND REVENUE

Retail Sales June 2012 0.7 -0.6 -0.7 -3.7 -1.1 2.5 0.0 1.6 2.4Manufacturing Shipments June 2012 -0.2 2.1 -3.9 -4.8 -2.8 3.3 1.6 0.3 4.3Housing Starts (000) (2) July 2012 50.6 49.1 42.9 47.5 49.6 48.2 47.8 47.5 47.4Number of existing homes sold (MLS) July 2012 1.3 -4.0 -0.6 -6.0 6.3 4.6 5.4 6.4 -7.2Wages and Salaries * June 2012 0.0 0.4 0.0 3.3 2.5 3.2 2.9 2.9 4.7Value of merchandise exports (1) June 2012 -2.2 7.1 -7.9 16.0 -10.3 9.0 7.1 6.0 3.2CFIB Business Barometer ® July 2012 -2.8 -5.6 -1.0 -21.1 1.0 -6.0 -11.5 -6.9 3.1Number of commercial bankrupties (1) * Apr 2012 -5.6 -1.0 -21.1 1.0 -6.0 -11.5 #VALUE! 3.1 #VALUE!

PRICESConsumer Price Index (1) July 2012 -0.1 -0.4 -0.2 -0.3 3.0 2.7 1.9 2.3 2.9Average Hourly Earnings (1) July 2012 -1.0 -0.4 -1.0 -3.5 3.5 2.7 4.6 3.3 1.5Price of New Housing inc. Land (1) June 2012 0.1 0.1 0.0 1.2 2.0 1.9 1.6 1.7 3.1Avg. Price of Existing Homes Sold (MLS) July 2012 0.4 0.5 0.4 3.5 4.5 4.2 5.1 4.2 5.3

LABOR MARKETJob creation (000) July 2012 -28.7 -4.6 14.7 -6.2 6.9 -1.1 -13.3 50.8 8.2Unemployment rate July 2012 7.6 7.7 7.8 7.7 7.9 7.9 7.2 8.0 7.6Participation rate July 2012 64.5 65.1 65.3 64.9 64.9 64.9 65.0 64.9 65.4

ONTARIODOMESTIC DEMAND AND REVENUE

Retail Sales June 2012 -0.3 0.3 -1.2 -3.3 2.1 2.7 1.0 2.4 4.2Manufacturing Shipments June 2012 0.5 -1.1 2.2 9.1 2.6 7.5 10.7 7.5 4.5Housing Starts (000) (2) July 2012 74.5 72.9 79.3 75.6 79.6 74.4 77.3 79.6 68.3Number of existing homes sold (MLS) July 2012 -0.6 -1.8 -5.8 -23.5 0.0 6.9 -1.6 4.1 -3.1Wages and Salaries * June 2012 0.5 0.1 0.1 3.4 2.7 2.2 2.7 2.0 4.5Value of merchandise exports (1) June 2012 3.7 7.8 -9.9 13.9 8.6 7.9 14.4 9.1 6.2CFIB Business Barometer ® July 2012 -1.0 -0.8 -8.9 -32.7 9.7 -5.8 -11.8 -5.5 0.8Number of commercial bankrupties (1) Apr 2012 #REF! #REF! #REF! 9.7 -5.8 -11.8 #VALUE! 0.8 #VALUE!

PRICESConsumer Price Index (1) July 2012 -0.2 -0.7 0.0 -0.4 1.8 2.2 0.7 1.8 3.3Average Hourly Earnings (1) July 2012 -0.5 -1.1 0.5 -1.3 3.4 1.6 3.0 1.9 2.9Price of New Housing inc. Land (1) June 2012 0.4 0.4 0.3 4.7 4.1 4.4 4.1 4.5 2.9Avg. Price of Existing Homes Sold (MLS) July 2012 -0.8 -0.8 -1.7 -5.4 9.3 6.6 3.4 6.2 6.8

LABOR MARKETJob creation (000) July 2012 10.6 20.2 -18.7 4.0 7.8 3.9 47.2 39.1 76.4Unemployment rate July 2012 7.9 7.7 7.8 7.8 7.7 7.8 7.6 7.8 7.9Participation rate July 2012 66.6 66.4 66.3 66.4 66.4 66.5 66.8 66.5 67.0

NEWFOUNDLAND & LABRADORDOMESTIC DEMAND AND REVENUE

Retail Sales June 2012 -1.4 1.7 1.0 9.8 3.6 4.8 3.9 4.0 4.6Manufacturing Shipments June 2012 -8.4 0.4 10.6 23.3 64.5 21.7 144.1 45.4 13.4Housing Starts (000) (2) July 2012 4.3 3.8 3.7 3.9 3.6 3.6 3.9 3.9 3.6Number of existing homes sold (MLS) July 2012 -22.3 -13.0 41.0 123.2 13.9 18.4 0.8 14.3 -5.5Wages and Salaries * June 2012 0.4 -0.1 1.7 9.7 8.5 7.5 8.0 7.2 7.8Value of merchandise exports (1) June 2012 -2.8 -13.4 29.5 126.5 -9.0 21.2 12.7 12.7 32.9CFIB Business Barometer ® July 2012 3.3 2.1 -3.0 18.5 -7.5 -13.0 -7.1 -16.3 2.3Number of commercial bankrupties (1) * Apr 2012 2.1 -3.0 18.5 -7.5 -13.0 -7.1 0.0 2.3 #VALUE!

PRICESConsumer Price Index (1) July 2012 0.1 -0.8 -0.6 -0.5 2.7 3.0 1.6 2.5 3.2Average Hourly Earnings (1) July 2012 -1.8 -1.8 -0.6 -14.6 2.3 8.3 6.8 9.0 2.9Price of New Housing inc. Land (1) June 2012 0.1 0.2 -0.1 1.3 -0.1 1.1 0.1 -0.3 5.4Avg. Price of Existing Homes Sold (MLS) July 2012 1.3 1.2 -6.4 -6.1 6.1 8.3 8.6 9.0 6.1

LABOR MARKETJob creation (000) July 2012 -3.2 0.1 -1.7 -1.6 0.0 0.2 2.5 0.0 1.8Unemployment July 2012 12.8 13.0 12.0 12.6 12.7 13.0 12.2 12.8 12.1Participation rate July 2012 61.0 62.0 61.3 61.4 61.4 60.9 59.8 61.4 60.2

PRINCE EDWARD ISLANDDOMESTIC DEMAND AND REVENUE

Retail Sales June 2012 -1.6 -0.5 1.4 -3.1 3.4 6.3 0.9 5.2 3.8Manufacturing Shipments June 2012 -3.3 8.3 -9.9 -14.7 9.0 4.9 4.3 9.0 -2.3Housing Starts (000) (2) July 2012 1.2 1.3 0.7 1.1 0.9 1.0 1.2 0.8 0.9Number of existing homes sold (MLS) July 2012 30.6 -20.0 -4.9 -53.1 -1.6 19.3 39.6 21.1 -6.3Wages and Salaries * June 2012 -1.3 2.5 -1.2 4.4 1.6 3.2 2.8 2.4 4.0Value of merchandise exports (1) June 2012 9.0 16.0 9.7 132.3 4.9 22.4 34.5 35.0 -1.2CFIB Business Barometer ® July 2012 -11.4 1.6 -6.0 -5.5 -13.6 -5.9 -12.5 -9.7 3.8Number of commercial bankrupties (1) * Apr 2012 1.6 -6.0 -5.5 -13.6 -5.9 -12.5 #VALUE! 3.8 #VALUE!

PRICESConsumer Price Index (1) July 2012 0.0 -0.6 -0.3 -0.4 2.8 2.6 1.5 2.3 2.8Average Hourly Earnings (1) July 2012 -1.3 -0.3 -0.1 -6.3 -0.7 2.6 2.9 2.9 3.2Price of New Housing inc. Land (1) June 2012 0.1 -0.4 0.1 -1.2 -1.2 2.2 0.5 1.3 0.4Avg. Price of Existing Homes Sold (MLS) July 2012 -15.4 10.3 -4.7 -47.7 3.0 2.7 -19.0 9.1 4.9

LABOR MARKETJob creation (000) July 2012 0.9 0.7 -1.0 0.2 0.2 0.1 1.5 0.2 2.2Unemployment July 2012 10.2 11.3 11.3 10.9 11.0 11.2 11.4 11.2 11.5Participation rate July 2012 68.0 68.0 67.3 67.8 67.7 68.1 68.2 67.8 68.0Source: Datastream and CREA* Update (1) Not Seasonally Adjusted (2) Annual Rate

Monthly Growth (%)


ECONOMIC TABLES


TABLE 4 - PROVINCIAL ECONOMIC INDICATORS (Continues from page A4)August 31, 2012

Annualized Growth (%) Cumulated sinceGrowth Rates Unless Reference Past Prev. Month Average of the last Since beginning of yearOtherwise Indicated Period Month Month Before 3 Mos. 6 Mos. 12 Mos. 12 Mos. ref. prec.

NOVA SCOTIADOMESTIC DEMAND AND REVENUE

Retail Sales June 2012 -3.4 1.0 -0.1 -3.0 -1.5 3.2 -2.8 1.6 2.2Manufacturing Shipments June 2012 1.7 1.7 -1.7 -13.2 -4.1 0.3 -2.9 -4.2 15.7Housing Starts (000) (2) July 2012 2.8 4.1 4.2 3.7 3.9 4.2 6.0 3.8 4.5Number of existing homes sold (MLS) July 2012 4.6 -2.6 1.1 -17.2 2.1 10.7 10.5 11.0 -2.3Wages and Salaries * June 2012 0.5 0.7 0.3 6.8 2.2 1.9 2.7 1.7 4.0Value of merchandise exports (1) June 2012 -4.3 20.8 0.1 69.1 -23.6 -11.6 -21.7 -18.7 11.7CFIB Business Barometer ® July 2012 -4.2 -5.1 -5.6 -33.9 5.3 -9.2 -12.3 -6.3 -4.5Number of commercial bankrupties (1) * Apr 2012 -5.1 -5.6 -33.9 5.3 -9.2 -12.3 #VALUE! -4.5 #VALUE!

PRICESConsumer Price Index (1) July 2012 -0.2 -0.6 -0.4 -0.8 2.5 2.8 1.4 2.3 3.9Average Hourly Earnings (1) July 2012 -1.2 -0.5 -1.2 -7.0 5.7 2.6 4.8 3.9 2.2Price of New Housing inc. Land (1) June 2012 -0.1 0.1 0.1 2.0 2.5 1.8 2.2 1.9 1.6Avg. Price of Existing Homes Sold (MLS) July 2012 -2.1 -1.2 -2.8 -11.1 5.9 5.0 2.6 5.8 2.3

LABOR MARKETJob creation (000) July 2012 2.5 -0.5 -1.0 0.3 -0.3 0.3 3.8 -2.9 4.6Unemployment July 2012 9.4 9.6 9.2 9.4 9.0 8.7 9.5 8.9 9.1Participation rate July 2012 64.4 64.2 64.0 64.2 64.1 63.9 64.1 64.1 63.8

NEW BRUNSWICKDOMESTIC DEMAND AND REVENUE

Retail Sales June 2012 0.0 -1.4 -0.4 -9.2 -1.3 2.8 -2.4 0.8 4.7Manufacturing Shipments June 2012 -12.6 9.5 -18.2 -15.7 -11.7 6.1 -7.1 -1.5 15.1Housing Starts (000) (2) July 2012 3.7 4.6 4.2 4.2 3.1 3.3 6.4 3.1 2.9Number of existing homes sold (MLS) July 2012 -2.8 0.9 -2.2 -11.5 3.6 -2.4 1.5 -3.2 -1.5Wages and Salaries * June 2012 -0.6 1.0 0.2 5.2 1.4 2.7 2.3 1.9 4.2Value of merchandise exports (1) June 2012 -17.1 -2.8 5.5 47.3 13.3 6.5 -18.8 -0.3 18.4CFIB Business Barometer ® July 2012 -1.4 3.4 -6.6 -14.8 20.6 -1.7 2.4 4.4 -7.8Number of commercial bankrupties (1) * Apr 2012 3.4 -6.6 -14.8 20.6 -1.7 2.4 #VALUE! -7.8 #VALUE!

PRICESConsumer Price Index (1) July 2012 -0.2 -0.9 -0.3 -1.1 2.0 2.9 0.9 2.1 3.2Average Hourly Earnings (1) July 2012 0.5 0.7 -3.7 -12.2 3.5 2.1 3.5 2.6 3.1Price of New Housing inc. Land (1) June 2012 0.0 -0.2 0.0 -1.0 -0.7 0.1 -0.1 0.1 1.1Avg. Price of Existing Homes Sold (MLS) July 2012 -3.6 -1.2 4.2 4.4 1.6 1.7 -1.4 0.5 1.0

LABOR MARKETJob creation (000) July 2012 -1.1 -1.9 5.3 0.8 -0.3 0.4 5.1 -0.8 -4.8Unemployment July 2012 10.0 9.5 9.4 9.6 9.8 9.6 10.2 9.8 9.7Participation rate July 2012 63.3 63.2 63.4 63.3 63.0 63.0 62.7 63.1 62.9

MANITOBADOMESTIC DEMAND AND REVENUE

Retail Sales June 2012 0.1 -0.5 0.0 -3.2 -0.4 3.3 0.4 2.0 4.1Manufacturing Shipments June 2012 3.0 -0.9 -1.3 -1.0 1.7 2.7 -2.0 1.6 8.0Housing Starts (000) (2) July 2012 6.4 5.1 12.4 8.0 7.2 7.0 9.0 7.5 5.7Number of existing homes sold (MLS) July 2012 -3.3 -1.8 -5.8 -8.0 -2.7 6.4 -1.4 3.7 2.9Wages and Salaries * June 2012 1.1 0.5 0.4 6.7 3.2 4.2 4.7 3.5 4.8Value of merchandise exports (1) June 2012 -3.7 -1.6 -5.9 -7.5 -0.4 13.4 -5.5 8.5 9.4CFIB Business Barometer ® July 2012 -2.1 3.7 -2.7 -19.3 2.0 -2.5 -6.3 -8.0 16.6Number of commercial bankrupties (1) * Apr 2012 3.7 -2.7 -19.3 2.0 -2.5 -6.3 #VALUE! 16.6 #VALUE!

PRICESConsumer Price Index (1) July 2012 0.0 -0.4 0.3 2.8 1.8 2.2 1.8 1.6 2.9Average Hourly Earnings (1) July 2012 0.2 -0.3 0.2 0.3 0.8 1.3 3.5 1.3 3.5Price of New Housing inc. Land (1) June 2012 0.7 0.2 0.2 4.8 3.7 4.6 4.4 4.2 4.6Avg. Price of Existing Homes Sold (MLS) July 2012 -3.0 -0.3 5.8 8.6 1.8 5.9 3.7 5.5 4.8

LABOR MARKETJob creation (000) July 2012 -3.3 -2.3 1.0 -1.5 -0.3 0.2 2.8 -1.5 1.6Unemployment July 2012 5.7 5.2 5.1 5.3 5.4 5.4 5.7 5.4 5.4Participation rate July 2012 68.8 68.9 69.1 69.0 69.0 69.1 69.2 69.1 69.4

SASKATCHEWANDOMESTIC DEMAND AND REVENUE

Retail Sales June 2012 0.1 2.0 0.7 13.3 3.9 7.5 5.3 6.5 6.5Manufacturing Shipments June 2012 8.0 -1.2 2.8 23.9 4.3 16.5 14.5 13.6 11.4Housing Starts (000) (2) July 2012 7.5 10.9 7.0 8.5 9.3 8.6 6.7 9.4 6.9Number of existing homes sold (MLS) July 2012 -1.3 5.2 -6.7 -10.8 19.1 21.5 20.0 26.6 7.3Wages and Salaries * June 2012 0.2 0.6 0.5 7.3 7.7 8.0 8.7 8.3 6.8Value of merchandise exports (1) June 2012 -4.8 -7.5 6.3 28.0 3.7 25.0 3.6 16.2 14.2CFIB Business Barometer ® July 2012 -0.7 0.5 0.1 4.9 0.1 3.2 7.5 -0.8 1.3Number of commercial bankrupties (1) * Apr 2012 0.5 0.1 4.9 0.1 3.2 7.5 #VALUE! 1.3 #VALUE!

PRICESConsumer Price Index (1) July 2012 -0.2 -0.3 0.2 2.2 1.7 2.3 1.7 1.9 2.7Average Hourly Earnings (1) July 2012 -0.4 1.5 -0.2 2.9 3.5 3.2 5.1 3.3 2.5Price of New Housing inc. Land (1) June 2012 0.1 0.1 0.5 3.9 4.2 3.0 3.5 3.4 3.1Avg. Price of Existing Homes Sold (MLS) July 2012 2.6 0.4 -4.7 -8.9 3.4 7.4 7.9 7.2 5.7

LABOR MARKETJob creation (000) July 2012 0.8 0.5 -0.4 0.3 1.3 0.9 10.7 9.4 2.0Unemployment July 2012 5.0 4.9 4.5 4.8 4.9 4.8 4.9 4.9 5.1Participation rate July 2012 69.7 69.6 69.4 69.6 69.5 69.2 69.2 69.4 69.4Source: Datastream and CREA* Update (1) Not Seasonally Adjusted (2) Annual Rate

Monthly Growth (%)


ECONOMIC TABLES


TABLE 4 - PROVINCIAL ECONOMIC INDICATORS (Continues from page A5)August 31, 2012

Annualized Growth (%) Cumulated sinceGrowth Rates Unless Reference Past Prev. Month Average of the last Since beginning of yearOtherwise Indicated Period Month Month Before 3 Mos. 6 Mos. 12 Mos. 12 Mos. ref. prec.

ALBERTADOMESTIC DEMAND AND REVENUE

Retail Sales June 2012 -1.3 1.1 -0.4 0.8 6.7 8.5 6.6 8.8 5.7Manufacturing Shipments June 2012 -2.6 -2.8 -1.2 -13.1 1.3 14.9 5.8 10.6 16.5Housing Starts (000) (2) July 2012 31.5 33.9 33.6 33.0 34.4 31.6 25.5 33.2 22.7Number of existing homes sold (MLS) July 2012 -0.2 0.4 -1.8 9.4 27.3 13.5 10.6 13.8 4.8Wages and Salaries * June 2012 1.2 0.5 0.1 8.6 7.7 8.2 8.9 7.8 8.1Value of merchandise exports (1) June 2012 1.0 -8.3 -3.3 -20.8 1.6 15.6 -1.1 9.2 14.1CFIB Business Barometer ® July 2012 -4.2 1.8 -1.7 -8.0 -2.0 1.0 -6.2 -1.8 8.4Number of commercial bankrupties (1) * Apr 2012 1.8 -1.7 -8.0 -2.0 1.0 -6.2 #VALUE! 8.4 #VALUE!

PRICESConsumer Price Index (1) July 2012 -0.1 0.2 -0.3 0.1 0.2 2.1 0.9 1.4 2.0Average Hourly Earnings (1) July 2012 -0.8 1.6 0.4 3.9 2.7 3.1 5.6 3.8 1.3Price of New Housing inc. Land (1) June 2012 0.2 0.1 0.2 2.6 1.5 0.6 1.2 0.8 0.4Avg. Price of Existing Homes Sold (MLS) July 2012 0.6 -1.4 0.8 2.3 5.7 1.3 3.1 1.7 0.0

LABOR MARKETJob creation (000) July 2012 5.8 -8.6 9.8 2.3 2.5 3.8 45.7 16.8 70.4Unemployment July 2012 4.6 4.6 4.5 4.6 4.8 5.0 5.5 4.8 5.7Participation rate July 2012 73.3 73.3 73.7 73.4 73.7 73.9 74.0 73.7 73.4

BRITISH COLUMBIADOMESTIC DEMAND AND REVENUE

Retail Sales June 2012 -1.0 0.0 -0.3 -1.5 2.6 4.1 1.8 4.0 2.0Manufacturing Shipments June 2012 0.0 1.4 -0.9 2.3 0.1 3.6 3.0 1.1 6.9Housing Starts (000) (2) July 2012 26.0 36.4 28.2 30.2 28.0 27.7 29.3 28.1 25.9Number of existing homes sold (MLS) July 2012 1.9 -0.8 -3.5 -17.1 -8.2 -2.5 -3.2 -8.0 0.8Wages and Salaries * June 2012 0.4 0.4 0.3 3.8 2.7 3.9 3.3 3.2 5.2Value of merchandise exports (1) June 2012 -2.5 3.2 -1.2 22.5 -16.2 8.1 -7.4 0.5 11.9CFIB Business Barometer ® July 2012 -7.9 -3.1 1.2 -3.6 -5.5 -5.0 -10.9 -7.9 1.1Number of commercial bankrupties (1) * Apr 2012 -3.1 1.2 -3.6 -5.5 -5.0 -10.9 #VALUE! 1.1 #VALUE!

PRICESConsumer Price Index (1) July 2012 -0.3 -0.3 0.3 1.6 1.6 1.8 1.1 1.5 2.5Average Hourly Earnings (1) July 2012 -1.8 1.5 -0.7 -5.4 0.9 1.9 1.0 1.9 1.6Price of New Housing inc. Land (1) June 2012 0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.7 -1.1 -0.5 -1.0 -0.8 -0.6Avg. Price of Existing Homes Sold (MLS) July 2012 -1.4 -1.2 -2.8 -26.8 -9.5 -3.6 -11.3 -8.9 15.8

LABOR MARKETJob creation (000) July 2012 -14.5 3.6 -0.2 -3.7 2.7 2.8 33.4 13.8 13.0Unemployment July 2012 7.0 6.6 7.4 7.0 6.9 6.9 7.3 6.9 7.8Participation rate July 2012 65.0 65.2 65.7 65.3 65.1 65.0 64.9 65.1 65.2

Source: Datastream and CREA

* Update (1) Not Seasonally Adjusted (2) Annual Rate

Monthly Growth (%)


ECONOMIC TABLES


TABLE 5 - INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC INDICATORSAugust 31, 2012

Annualized Growth (%) Cumulated sinceGrowth Rates Unless Reference Past Prev. Month Average of the last Since beginning of year


OECD leading index * June 2012 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 -0.5 -0.3 -0.6 0.5

JAPANConsumer confidence - percenbtage (1) July 2012 40.5 40.8 40.7 40.7 40.2 39.3 37.7 40.1 37.4Retail Sales (1) * July 2012 4.8 -1.2 -1.4 -5.6 2.9 1.9 -0.8 3.4 -1.9Industrial Production, Volume Index * July 2012 -1.2 0.4 -3.4 -12.2 -1.4 1.6 -2.5 2.9 -3.8Exports July 2012 -1.1 -1.6 -0.9 -7.0 0.8 -1.4 -4.8 -0.5 -2.5Imports July 2012 -0.9 -6.3 1.4 -9.7 2.9 8.7 -1.2 5.6 11.3Merchandise trade bal. (Billions of ¥) June 2012 -1,666 -4,498 -5,558 -3,907 -3,842 -3,110 35 -23,049 -1,852Current account (Billions of ¥) June 2012 774 282 289 448 471 588 959 2,829 5,374Inflation (CPI) * July 2012 0.0 -0.4 -0.4 -2.5 0.6 0.0 -0.4 0.1 -0.4Job offers to applicants ratio * July 2012 0.83 0.82 0.81 0.82 0.79 0.74 0.65 0.78 0.62Unemployment Rate * July 2012 4.3 4.3 4.4 4.3 4.4 4.4 4.7 4.5 4.7

Q2 2012 Q1 2012 Q4 2011 Q3 2011 Q2 2011 Q1 2011 2011 2010 2009Gross Domestic Product (Constant Yen) 1.4 5.5 0.3 7.4 -1.9 -7.7 -0.7 4.6 -5.5

Euro-zoneVolume Retail Sales * June 2012 0.2 0.9 -1.4 -2.5 -1.5 -1.0 -1.0 -1.3 -0.1Industrial Production * June 2012 -0.6 0.9 -1.1 -2.3 -3.6 -0.1 -2.0 -2.0 5.3Exports June 2012 2.4 0.4 -1.4 2.4 10.9 9.4 14.9 7.8 17.5Imports June 2012 0.0 -0.9 -1.6 -6.9 4.7 5.8 4.1 2.2 19.5Merch. Trade Bal. (Millions of euros) June 2012 10,480 6,785 4,796 7,354 5,371 3,771 3,793 33,440 -14,514Inflation (CPI) * Aug 2012 0.4 -0.5 -0.1 -1.0 3.2 2.7 2.6 2.6 2.6Unemployment Rate * July 2012 11.3 11.3 11.2 11.3 11.1 10.8 10.1 11.1 10.0

Q2 2012 Q1 2012 Q4 2011 Q3 2011 Q2 2011 Q1 2011 2011 2010 2009Gross Domestic Product (Constant Euro) -0.7 0.1 -1.3 0.4 0.7 2.9 1.5 2.0 -4.4

UNITED KINGDOMConsumer Confidence (Diffusion index) * Aug 2012 -19 -18 -21 -19 -21 -22 -20 -21 -20Retail Sales July 2012 0.3 0.8 1.5 4.3 2.1 1.1 2.9 1.5 0.5Manufacturing, energy and mining output June 2012 -2.5 1.0 -0.6 -3.6 -3.2 -2.4 -4.3 -2.9 0.5Exports (1) June 2012 -8.4 5.5 -7.9 -18.1 -0.6 5.8 -3.1 1.6 14.9Imports (1) June 2012 -1.2 -0.4 -2.4 -2.0 0.5 5.8 0.8 3.9 11.6Merchandise Trade Bal. (Millions of £) June 2012 -10,119 -8,364 -9,809 -9,431 -8,918 -8,992 -8,349 -53,339 -47,902Inflation (CPI harmonized) (1) July 2012 0.2 -0.3 0.1 1.9 2.4 3.1 2.4 2.6 3.7Producer price index, manufacturing (1) July 2012 0.0 -0.6 -0.3 -0.2 3.1 4.1 1.7 3.1 5.5House prices July 2012 -0.6 0.8 0.4 -0.2 -0.2 -1.2 -1.3 -0.7 -3.1Unemployment Rate July 2012 4.9 4.9 4.9 4.9 4.9 4.9 4.8 4.9 4.6

Q2 2012 Q1 2012 Q4 2011 Q3 2011 Q2 2011 Q1 2011 2011 2010 2009Gross Domestic Product (Constant £) -1.8 -1.3 -1.4 2.4 -0.4 2.4 0.8 1.8 -4.0

INTEREST AND EXCHANGE RATESReference Current Prev. Week Average of last Thurdays 13 w. 26 w. 52 w.Thursday Week Week Before 13 W. 26 W. 52 W. ago ago ago

JAPANPrime Rate * 30 Aug 12 0.30 0.30 0.30 0.30 0.30 0.30 0.30 0.30 0.303-month Financing Bill Rate * 30 Aug 12 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.10

- Spread with U.S. * 30 Aug 12 0.00 -0.01 0.01 0.00 0.01 0.04 0.03 0.02 0.08Yield on 10-year Gov't Bonds * 30 Aug 12 0.80 0.83 0.86 0.81 0.87 0.93 0.83 0.96 1.05

- Spread with U.S. * 30 Aug 12 -0.82 -0.84 -0.98 -0.79 -0.92 -0.96 -0.75 -1.08 -1.09Exchange Rate (¥/U.S.$) * 30 Aug 12 78.6 78.5 79.4 79.1 80.0 78.7 78.4 81.1 76.9

Euro Zone3-month Treasury Bills * 30 Aug 12 0.17 0.18 0.21 0.38 0.52 0.91 0.60 0.88 1.48

- Spread with U.S. * 30 Aug 12 0.07 0.07 0.12 0.28 0.43 0.85 0.53 0.80 1.46Yield on 10-year Gov't Bonds * 30 Aug 12 1.77 1.77 1.77 1.77 1.77 1.77 1.77 1.77 2.17

- Spread with U.S. * 30 Aug 12 0.15 0.11 -0.07 0.18 -0.01 -0.12 0.19 -0.27 0.02Exchange Rate (U.S.$/Euro) * 30 Aug 12 1.25 1.26 1.24 1.24 1.27 1.30 1.24 1.33 1.43

(Yen/Euro) * 30 Aug 12 98.63 98.68 97.38 98.12 101.79 102.62 97.66 107.95 110.08(Euro / £ ) * 30 Aug 12 1.26 1.26 1.28 1.26 1.24 1.21 1.25 1.20 1.13

UNITED KINGDOMPrime Rate * 30-Aug-12 6.50 6.50 6.50 6.50 6.50 6.50 6.50 6.50 6.503-month Treasury Bills (tender) * 30 Aug 12 0.24 0.24 0.24 0.29 0.35 0.37 0.33 0.40 0.46

- Spread with U.S. * 30 Aug 12 0.14 0.13 0.15 0.20 0.26 0.31 0.26 0.32 0.44Yield on 30-year Gov't Bonds * 30 Aug 12 2.90 2.99 3.05 2.97 3.11 3.20 2.94 3.29 3.84

- Spread with U.S. * 30 Aug 12 0.16 0.21 0.09 0.28 0.21 0.21 0.27 0.13 0.32Exchange Rate (U.S.$ / £ ) * 30 Aug 12 1.58 1.59 1.57 1.56 1.58 1.57 1.54 1.60 1.62

STOCK INDICES Monthly Growth (%) Growth Over (%) SincePast Prev. Month beginning of year

Reference Level Month Month Before 3 Months 6 Months 1 Year ref. prec.

MSCI Eafe * Aug 2012 197 9.9 0.6 -0.4 10.0 -4.0 2.8 6.8 -11.3

* Update (1) Not Seasonally Adjusted Source: Datastream

Monthly Growth (%)


ECONOMIC TABLES


Spot Price Weekly Growth (%) Annualized Growth (%)Last Prev. Week For the Last Last

Aug 30 Aug 23 Week Week Before 13 W. 26 W. 52 W. Year

CRB Index

Total 571.9 569.8 0.4 2.6 -1.6 59.6 -9.4 -12.9 656.3

Energy 651.2 653.9 -0.4 1.1 -0.5 74.4 -1.6 -7.9 707.2

Grain 582.8 575.8 1.2 2.7 -2.6 286.5 70.9 15.0 506.8

Industrials 471.6 474.3 -0.6 4.4 -2.8 24.1 -25.2 -21.8 603.0

Livestock & Meat 370.0 366.1 1.1 -1.6 -2.7 -16.9 -23.2 -0.6 372.2

Precious Metals 1220.7 1239.4 -1.5 6.5 0.6 31.5 -19.4 -18.7 1500.7

PRECIOUS METALS

Gold ($/ounce) 1657.00 1662.50 -0.3 3.7 -0.6 24.9 -7.3 -8.7 1815.50(AM fixing London)

Platinum ($/ounce) 1524.0 1549.0 -1.6 10.8 -1.1 35.7 -18.9 -17.6 1850.0(AM fixing London)

Silver ($/ounce) 30.4 30.7 -1.1 9.0 0.4 43.1 -24.9 -27.2 41.7(Handy & Harman)

Palladium ($/ounce troy) 634.0 638.0 -0.6 10.2 -1.0 15.9 -18.7 -18.4 777.0

OTHER METALS (LME)

Aluminum ($/tonne) 1,856 1,877 -1.1 4.1 -3.1 -18.8 -35.6 -23.2 2,419

Copper ($/tonne) 7,557 7,677 -1.6 3.1 -1.2 6.8 -23.2 -17.2 9,127

Zinc ($/tonne) 1,809 1,843 -1.8 4.6 -4.6 -11.5 -24.5 -18.2 2,213

Nickel ($/tonne) 15,920 16,424 -3.1 6.2 0.2 -5.8 -32.7 -26.7 21,708

Lead ($/tonne) 1,940 1,943 -0.2 6.3 -4.5 7.0 -17.2 -24.5 2,571

Uranium (Neuxco spot $/lb U308) 634 638 -0.6 10.2 -1.0 15.9 -18.7 -18.4 777

OTHER COMMODITIES

Oil ($/barrel) 1-month future 94.75 95.77 -1.1 0.4 2.0 43.0 -24.3 6.4 89.08(West Texas Intermediate)

Corn (¢/bushel) 818.0 827.0 -1.1 1.9 -1.6 290.2 56.7 12.6 726.5(Illinois #2)

Soy beans (¢/bushel) 1785.5 1753.5 1.8 4.5 0.4 216.6 88.1 26.7 1409.5(Illinois #1)

Pork (¢/lb) 126.0 140.0 -10.0 -6.7 -3.2 236.9 20.0 14.5 110.0

Beef (Cattle feeder index) 140.1 140.1 0.0 1.2 0.9 -28.1 -19.8 6.6 131.5(CME)

Woodpulp NBSK 880 880 0.0 0.0 0.0 -8.6 2.3 -11.1 990Metric ton delivered in U.S.

Natural Gas (mmbtu) 2.72 2.81 -3.2 1.1 -3.8 82.6 22.8 -34.9 4.18Henry Hub future NYMEX

Lumber 2X4 312 315 -1.0 1.9 0.0 3.9 35.5 35.7 230

Source: Datastream

All prices are in US dollars

August 31, 2012

grain prices up: more bad news for global economy€¦ · grain prices up: more bad news for global...

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