grains and oilseeds vince o’donnell abares grains team: henry to, james fell and fiona crawford
TRANSCRIPT
Grains and oilseeds
Vince O’Donnell
ABARES
Grains team: Henry To, James Fell and Fiona Crawford
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
1990-91 1995-96 2000-01 2005-06 2010-11s 2015-16z
World prices
wheat
corn
soybean
2010-11
US$/t
Australian grain prices 2011-12
32%
A$/tonne
Wheat APW 251
Canola 548
Malt barley 215 15%
10%Feed barley 179
Grain sorghum 205
─
6%
Driving the demand for grain
• Population growth– 9.2 billion by 2050
• Income growth – changing diets increased feed demand
• Industrial uses– Biofuels - ethanol, biodiesel
Growth in biofuels
Mt
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
2001-02 2004-05 2007-08 2010-11s
US corn
Supply side variability
• Stocks
• Production
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50
100
150
200
250
Mt
World stocks
wheat
corn
World - stocks to use ratio
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
2001-02 2004-05 2007-08 2010-11s
Wheat
Corn
%
Supply side variability
• Stocks
• Production– Weather shocks– Varieties – GMs, drought resistance– Response to prices– Technology
Mt
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
1990-91 1995-96 2000-01 2005-06 2010-11s 2015-16z
Winter crop production
Russia wheat
0
20
40
60
1995-96 2000-01 2005-06 2010-11s
Exports
Production
Mt
Rapidly changing technology
• Production – Assisted decision making– Improved management practices
• Information systems– Markets – Knowledge of environment
• Speculation in the market
Farm cash income – by industry
average per farm
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
89-90 92-93 95-96 98-99 01-02 04-05 07-08 10-11s
Crop specialists
Mixed enterprise2010-11
$‘000
Farm cash income – crop specialists
average per farm
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
89-90 92-93 95-96 98-99 01-02 04-05 07-08 10-11s
New South Wales
Western Australia
2010-11 $‘000
Investment on grain farms – average per farm
0 5 10 15 20 25 30
tractors
vehicles
cultivating/sow/fert/spray
crop harvesting
grain storage
2007
2008
2009
2010
2010-11
$‘000
Managing variability
• Lower grain prices
• Understanding the market
• Improving productivity
• Investment in R&D
www.abares.gov.au
Grain production in Russia
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20
40
60
80
100
1990-91 2000-01 2005-06 2010-11s
Barley
Wheat
SunflowersMt
Grain exports from Russia
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20
40
60
80
100
1990-91 2000-01 2005-06 2010-11s
Barley
Wheat
Sunflowers