grasim industries event update centrum 190810
TRANSCRIPT
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7/30/2019 Grasim Industries Event Update Centrum 190810
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Buy
Target Price: 2,549
CMP: Rs2,060*
Upside: 23.7%*as on 18 August 2010
Rajan [email protected] 22 4215 9640
VSF in sweet spot, Ultratech near troughvaluation
The recent flood in Pakistan is expected to furthertighten the demand-supply balance in cotton, ensuring
buoyant prices for the next season. The recent
imposition of anti-dumping duty on Chinese and
Indonesian VSF provides a further cushion to domestic
VSF prices. In addition, if US cotton subsidies are
removed post a definitive WTO verdict in favour of
Brazil, it would result in a further trigger for long-term
buoyancy in cotton prices (refer to our note Brazil
Retaliation-Leap for VSF Prices dated 15 March 2010).
Grasim becomes a compelling Buy given the
unsustainably high holding company discount of 65%for its 60.4% stake in Ultratech Cement, which has
limited downside. We reiterate a Buy on Grasim, with a
target price of Rs2,549, implying a potential upside of
23.7%.
VSF business in sweet spot: Cotton and VSF prices are
expected to continue their buoyant trend, as the floods in
Pakistan are expected to further tighten the cotton
demand-supply balance. The recent imposition of anti-
dumping duty on Chinese and Indonesian VSF imports is
likely to provide a further cushion to domestic VSF prices.
Limited downside in Ultratech Cements: With the
valuation of Ultratech Cements falling to P/BV of 2.3x,
comparable with ACC valuation during the last trough
(1.9x during FY03), there is little downside on the stock.
We see Ultratech Cement as an attractive long-term
investment.
Holding company discount at an unsustainable 65%:
With limited downside in Ultratech Cements, robust VSF
outlook and unsustainably high holding company
discount of 65% for Grasims 60.4% stake in Ultratech
Cements, Grasim becomes a compelling Buy. We reiterateour Buy rating with a target price of Rs2549, based on
SOTP valuation.
Key Data
Bloomberg Code GRASIM IN
Reuters Code GRAS.BO
Current Shares O/S (mn) 91.7
Diluted Shares O/S(mn) 91.7
Mkt Cap (Rsbn/USDbn) 188.9/4.1
52 Wk H / L (Rs) 2,229/1,496
Daily Vol. (3M NSE Avg.) 150,282
Face Value (Rs) 10
1 USD = Rs46.6
Shareholding Pattern (%)
Foreign, 36.0
Institutions, 21.0
Non Promoter Corp.
Hold., 5.6
Promoters, 25.5
Public & Others, 12.0
As on 30 June 2010
One year Indexed Stock Performance
80
85
90
95
100
105
110
115
120
125
130
Aug-09 Oct-09 Dec-09 Feb-10 Apr- 10 Jun- 10 Aug-10
GRASIM INDS LTD BSE SENSEX 30 INDEX
Price Performance (%)
1M 6M 1Yr
Grasim Ind. 12.7 3.0 11.8
NIFTY 2.8 13.8 24.4
Source: Bloomberg, Centrum Research*as on 18 August 2010
Event Update 19 August 2010
Please refer to important disclosures/disclaimers in Appendix A
Cement
INDIA
Grasim Industries
Y/E Mar (Rsbn) Rev YoY (%) EBITDA EBITDA (%) Adj PAT YoY (%) Fully DEPS RoE (%) RoCE (%) P/BV P/E (x) EV/EBITDA (x)
FY08 169.7 20.6 49.6 29.2 26.2 33.4 286.2 33.4 21.1 2.6 7.2 4.7
FY09 184.0 8.4 43.3 23.5 21.9 (16.7) 238.5 21.1 15.0 2.0 8.6 5.3
FY10 199.3 8.3 57.9 29.0 27.6 26.2 301.0 22.9 16.4 1.8 6.8 3.9
FY11E 209.1 4.9 50 23.7 20.8 (24.5) 227 15.5 12.0 1.5 9.1 4.6
FY12E 219.0 4.7 49.9 22.8 20.6 (1.3) 224 13.6 10.6 1.3 9.2 4.4
Source: Company, Centrum Research Estimates
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VSF business in sweet spot
The recent flood in Pakistan is reported to have destroyed about 30% of the countrys crop. This isexpected to lead to lower availability of cotton by 0.7mn mt in the next cotton season (2010/11),and would further tighten the already tight global cotton demand-supply balance. This puts GrasimIndustries VSF business in a sweet spot, as the buoyant streak in cotton prices as well as VSF pricesis expected to continue over FY11/FY12.
A further trigger for long-term buoyancy can be the possible removal of US cotton subsidies post a
definitive WTO verdict in favour of Brazil (refer to our note Brazil Retaliation Leap for VSF Prices,dated 15 March, 2010).
Exhibit 1: World cotton demand supply to further tighten
World Cotton Supply and Demand Forecast (ICAC)August 2010
2008/09 2009/10 2010/11E
MillionTons
Milliontons
MillionTons
BEGINNING STOCKS 12.25 12.01 9.45
PRODUCTION 23.35 21.86 25.24
SUPPLY 35.6 33.88 34.69
CONSUMPTION 23.39 24.47 24.92
EXPORTS 6.63 7.69 8.05
ENDING STOCKS 12.01 9.45 9.77
Likely Scenario Post PakistanFlood Impact)
2010/11
MillionTons
9.45
24.58
34.03
24.92
8.05
9.11
Source: International Cotton Advisory Committee
In addition, the recent imposition of anti-dumping duty on Chinese (@$0.19/kg) and Indonesian(@$0.5/kg) VSF provides a further cushion to the prevailing domestic VSF prices.
Exhibit 2: Snapshot of the VSF segment: robust business with high margin and ROCE
FY02 FY03 FY04 FY05 FY06 FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11E FY12E
Sales Volume (tonne) 181,520 227,900 229,110 231,533 242,399 250,725 269,781 238,463 308,431 325,502 341,777
Realization (Rs/tonne) 73,215 67,921 72,269 79,008 73,786 85,729 103,316 96,516 106,481 110,103 110,103
Revenue (Rsmn) 13,290 16,400 17,648 19,564 19,130 23,089 29,985 24,765 35,742 35,839 37,631EBIDTA (Rsmn) 3,541 5,916 5,727 6,108 4,950 7,123 10,971 5,136 13,155 12,544 12,794
Margin (%) 26.6 36.1 32.5 31.2 25.9 30.9 36.6 20.7 36.8 35.0 34.0
EBIT (Rsmn) 3,059 5,438 5,204 5,536 4,296 6,380 10,120 4,082 12,035 11,336 11,474
ROCE (%)* 29.5 52.2 45.1 35.2 25.7 33.3 40.2 16.0 48.0 45.0 44.4
*ROCE-- (EBIT(1-tax rate)/Average Capital Employed)Source: Company, Centrum Research Estimates
Ultratechs valuation attractive from long-term perspective
With the valuation of Ultratech Cements (CMP Rs898) falling to a P/BV of 2.3x, which is comparablewith ACCs valuation during the last trough (1.9x during FY03), there is little downside on the stock,which we view as an attractive long-term investment.
Exhibit 3: Re-Rating: 1.5X P/BV-2xP/BV in FY03 (Oversupply phase) to 3.6X-3.8XP/BV in FY05-07 (Tight demand supply)
Price to Book value (Ambuja Cements)
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
Jun-91
Jun-92
Jun-93
Jun-94
Jun-95
Jun-96
Jun-97
Jun-98
Jun-99
Jun-00
Jun-01
Jun-02
Jun-03
Jun-04
Jun-05
Jun-06
Jun-07
Jun-08
Jun-09
(x)
1.5x Average
Value
3.6x Average
Value
Price/Book Value (ACC)
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
Apr-
91
Apr-
92
Apr-
93
Apr-
94
Apr-
95
Apr-
96
Apr-
97
Apr-
98
Apr-
99
Apr-
00
Apr-
01
Apr-
02
Apr-
03
Apr-
04
Apr-
05
Apr-
06
Apr-
07
Apr-
08
Apr-
09
(x)
3.8x Average
Value1.9x Average
Value
Source: Bloomberg, Centrum Research
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Holding company discount unsustainable at 65%, Grasim becomes a compelling Buy
With limited downside in Ultratech Cements, robust VSF outlook and unsustainably high holdingcompany discount of 65% for Grasims 60.4% stake in Ultratech Cements, Grasim becomes acompelling Buy. We reiterate our Buy rating with a target price of Rs2549, based on SOTP valuation.
Exhibit 4: Inexpensive route to play Ultratech Cement
Source: Company, Centrum Research
Exhibit 5: Grasims SOTP valuation
Value Per Share (Rs)
Share in Ultratech (with 30% holding company discount at Ultratech TP of Rs830) 1,049
Value of strategic investments (0.7 x Mcap) 235
Value of liquid investment (1x) 274
Value of VSF business (12X FY11E) 990
Value of Grasim share post restructuring 2,549
Source: Company, Centrum Research
UltraTech (CMP: Rs898)
Grasims equity (Rsmn) 916.9
Grasim's direct holding in UltraTech (Post Samrudhhi merger) 60.4%
Holding in UltraTech that Grasim's shareholders would get in individual capacity 19.11%
UltraTech's market cap @898/share (Rsmn) 246,318
SOTP valuation of Grasim (Rs)
A. Value of Grasims direct holding in UltraTech (post Samrudhhi merger) /share 1,622
B Value of VSF biz per share (PE 12X FY11 E) 991
C. Value of investments in L&T, Hindalco, Idea and AV Nuvo (0.7 X M cap) 237
D. Value liquid investments (1X ) 274
E A+B+C+D Value of Grasim per share (with no holding company discount for UltraTech stake) 3,121
F CMP of Grasim stock 2,060
G E-F Holding company discount 1,061
H G/A Holding company discount (%) to valuation assigned to Ultratech 65.4
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Financials (Consolidated)
xhibit 6: Income Statement
/E Mar (Rsmn) FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11E FY12E
evenues 169,739 184,039 199,334 209,103 219,011
rowth in revenues (%) 20.6 8.4 8.3 4.9 4.7
BITDA 49,598 43,296 57,867 49,644 49,941
BITDA Margin 29.2 23.5 29.0 23.7 22.8
epreciation 6,703 8,658 9,947 11,557 12,575
BIT 42,895 34,638 47,920 38,088 37,366
nterst expenses 2,221 3,105 3,346 3,817 3,817
BT from operations 40,674 31,534 44,574 34,271 33,550
ther non operating income 4,623 4,532 5,356 6,000 6,000
BT before extra-ordinary items 45,296 36,066 49,930 40,271 39,550
xtra-ordinary income/ (exp) - - - - -
BT 45,296 36,066 49,930 40,271 39,550
rovision for tax 14,658 9,914 15,705 12,581 12,365
ffective tax rate 32.4 27.5 31.5 31.2 31.3
AT 30,639 26,152 34,225 27,690 27,185
Minority Interest 4,565 4,445 7,141 6,853 6,625
AT after minority int. 26,073 21,708 27,084 20,836 20,559
djusted PAT 26,073 21,708 27,084 20,836 20,559
rowth in PAT (%) 15.5 11.9 13.8 10.0 9.4
AT margin 15.4 11.8 13.6 10.0 9.4
ource: Company, Centrum Research Estimates
xhibit 7: Balance Sheet
/E Mar (Rsmn) FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11E FY12E
hare Capital 917 917 917 917 917
eserves 90,462 114,662 124,189 141,801 159,137
hareholders' fund 91,438 115,701 125,246 142,859 160,194Minority Interest 12,760 16,704 37,548 44,402 51,027
ebt 55,771 59,162 55,992 58,162 57,662
eferred Tax Liability 11,575 15,919 20,057 22,557 25,057
otal Capital Employed 171,544 207,485 238,844 267,979 293,940
ross Block 157,198 210,623 229,509 245,559 265,559
ccumulated dep. 63,397 68,254 71,646 83,202 95,777
et Block 93,801 142,369 157,864 162,357 169,782
apital WIP 55,335 19,822 7,734 25,134 20,134
otal Fixed Assets 149,136 162,191 165,598 187,491 189,916
nvestments 16,607 35,626 66,759 66,759 66,759
nventories 17,443 22,210 21,835 22,905 23,990
ebtors 10,185 8,239 8,803 9,234 9,672
ash & bank balances 2,903 2,270 2,370 9,520 32,960
oans and Advances 12,047 12,615 12,362 12,870 13,370
otal current assets 42,578 45,333 45,370 54,529 79,992
urrent lia & provisions 36,783 35,685 38,891 40,797 42,730
et current assets 5,795 9,649 6,478 13,732 37,262
Misc. Expenditure - - - - -
otal Assets 171,544 207,485 238,844 267,979 293,940
ource: Company, Centrum Research Estimates
Exhibit 8: Cash flow
Y/E Mar (Rsmn) FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11E FY11E
CF from operating
Profit before tax 45,296 36,066 49,930 40,271 39,550
Depreciation 6,703 8,658 9,947 11,557 12,575
Interest expenses/other (382) 67 1,064 3,817 3,817
OP profit before WC change 51,617 44,791 60,941 55,644 55,941
Wo rking capital adjustment ( 574) (4,657) (1,497) (94) (90)
Gross cash from operations 51,043 40,134 59,445 55,550 55,852
Direct taxes paid (14,072) (5,509) (11,190) (10,081) (9,865)
Cash from operations 36,972 34,625 48,254 45,469 45,987
Extraordinary (Inc) 2,980 - 10,249 - -
Cash From Op & EI 39,952 34,625 58,503 45,469 45,987
CF from investing
Capex (51,181) (26,468) (14,555) (33,450) (15,000)
Investment 5,885 (10,183) (30,662) - -
Cash from investment (45,296) (36,651) (45,216) (33,450) (15,000)
CF from f inancing
Proceeds from sh cap & prem. 634 438 18 - -
Borrowings/ (Repayments) 7,201 7,991 (4,647) 2,169 (500)
Interest paid (3,095) (3,483) (5,015) (3,817) (3,817)
Dividend paid (185) (3,553) (3,545) (3,224) (3,224)
Cash from financing 4,555 1,392 (13,188) (4,872) (7,541)
Net cash increase/ (dec) (789) (633) 99 7,147 23,446
Source: Company, Centrum Research Estimates
Exhibit 9: Key RatiosY/E Mar FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11E FY12E
Margin Ratios (%)
EBITDA Margin 29.2 23.5 29.0 23.7 22.8
PBIT Margin 28.0 21.3 26.7 21.1 19.8
PBT Margin 26.7 19.6 25.0 19.3 18.1
PAT Margin 15.5 11.9 13.8 10.0 9.4Growth Ratios (%)
Revenues 20.6 8.4 8.3 4.9 4.7
E BITDA 24.9 ( 12.7) 33 .7 (14.2) 0.6
Net Profit 33.4 (16.7) 26.2 (24.5) (1.3)
Return Ratios (%)
ROCE 21.1 15.0 16.4 12.0 10.6
ROIC 24.9 16.3 21.6 14.8 13.3
ROE 33.4 21.1 22.9 15.5 13.6
Turnover Ratios
Asset turnover ratio (x) 1.0 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.7
Working capital cycle (days) (20.2) (11.0) (15.7) (15.7) (15.7)
Avg collection period (days) 21.9 16.3 16.1 16.1 16.1
Avg payment period (days) 79.1 70.8 71.2 71.2 71.2
Inventory holding (days) 37.0 43.4 39.4 39.4 39.4
Per share (Rs)Fully diluted EPS 286.2 238.5 301.0 227.2 224.2
CEPS 359.3 332.9 409.4 353.3 361.3
DPS 30.0 30.0 30.0 30.0 30.0
Book Value 997.3 1,261.9 1,365.8 1,557.9 1,746.9
Solvency ratios
Debt/ Equity 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.2
Net Debt/Equity 0.3 0.2 (0.1) (0.1) (0.2)
Interest coverage 21.4 12.6 15.9 11.6 11.4
Valuation parameters (x)
P/E 7.2 8.6 6.8 9.1 9.2
P/BV 2.1 1.6 1.5 1.3 1.2
EV/ EBITDA 4.7 5.3 3.9 4.6 4.4
EV/ Sales 1.5 1.3 1.2 1.1 1.0
M-Cap/ Sales 1.1 1.0 0.9 0.9 0.9
Source: Company, Centrum Research Estimates
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Appendix A
Disclaimer
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Key to Centrum Investment Rankings
Buy: Expected outperform Nifty by>15%, Accumulate: Expected to outperform Nifty by +5 to 15%, Hold: Expected tooutperform Nifty by -5% to +5%, Reduce: Expected to underperform Nifty by 5 to 15%, Sell: Expected to underperform Nifty
by>15%
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