great eastern shipping...title slide 1 author gesco created date 8/18/2017 4:31:32 pm
TRANSCRIPT
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The Great Eastern Shipping Co. Ltd.
Business & Financial Review
August 2017
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Except for historical information, the statements made in this presentation
constitute forward looking statements. These include statements regarding the
intent, belief or current expectations of GE Shipping and its management
regarding the Company’s operations, strategic directions, prospects and future
results which in turn involve certain risks and uncertainties.
Certain factors may cause actual results to differ materially from those contained
in the forward looking statements; including changes in freight rates; global
economic and business conditions; effects of competition and technological
developments; changes in laws and regulations; difficulties in achieving cost
savings; currency, fuel price and interest rate fluctuations etc.
The Company assumes no responsibility with regard to publicly amending,
modifying or revising the statements based on any subsequent developments,
information or events that may occur.
2
Forward Looking Statements
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Corporate Profile
The Great Eastern Shipping Company
Shipping (Bulk)
Tankers
- Crude
- Products/LPG
Dry Bulk
Offshore
(Through wholly-owned subsidiary
Greatship (India) Limited)
DrillingLogistics
India’s largest private sector shipping company.
Over 69 years of experience
3
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Promoters
30%
Public
21%Corporate
Bodies
6%
Govt/FI
20%
FII/FPI
23%
Shareholding Pattern as on June 30, 2017
Shareholding Pattern
4
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Shipping business - owned fleetSr. No. Vessel Name Type
1 Jag Lalit Suezmax
2 Jag Lok Suezmax
3 Jag Lateef Suezmax
4 Jag Lakshita Suezmax
5 Jag Laadki Suezmax
6 Jag Leena Suezmax
7 Jag Lakshya Suezmax
8 Jag Lyall Aframax
9 Jag Lata Aframax
10 Jag Lavanya Aframax
11 Jag Leela Aframax
12 Jag Laxmi Aframax
12 Crude Carriers ; Average Age – 11.9 years
13 Jag Aabha LR1
14 Jag Aanchal LR1
15 Jag Amisha LR1
16 Jag Aparna LR1
17 Jag Pahel MR
18 Jag Pankhi MR
19 Jag Prabha MR
20 Jag Prakash MR
21 Jag Pushpa MR
22 Jag Prerana MR
23 Jag Pranav MR
24 Jag Pranam MR
25 Jag Padma MR
26 Jag Punit MR
27 Jag Pooja MR
28 Jag Pavitra MR
16 Product Carriers; Average Age – 10.0 years
Sr. No. Vessel Name Type
29 Jag Vishnu VLGC
30 Jag Vidhi VLGC
2 Gas Carriers; Age – 22.5 years
31 Jag Anand Capesize
32 Jag Aarati Kamsarmax
33 Jag Aditi Kamsarmax
34 Jag Arya Kamsarmax
35 Jag Arnav Kamsarmax
36 Jag Ajay Kamsarmax
37 Jag Aalok Kamsarmax
38 Jag Akshay Kamsarmax
39 Jag Amar Kamsarmax
40 Jag Ratan Supramax
41 Jag Rahul Supramax
42 Jag Rishi Supramax
43 Jag Rani Supramax
44 Jag Roopa Supramax
45 Jag Radha Supramax
46 Jag Rohan Supramax
16 Bulk Carriers; Average Age – 5.8 years
46 Vessels
Average Age – 9.78 years
Total dwt - 3.80 mn
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Vessels on Order & Capital Expenditure
Vessel Yard Expected Delivery
1 Secondhand
LR2 Product Tanker
Hyundai Heavy
Industries (Ulsan), South
Korea
Q2/Q3FY18
Vessels on Committed Order & Expected Delivery
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Key points on Tanker Markets – Q2CY17
• VLCC 5 yr old asset prices corrected further by 8.5% Y-O-Y in Q2CY2017
• Suezmax & Aframax 5 yr old asset prices corrected by 18% Y-O-Y in Q2CY2017
Asset Prices:
• BCTI corrected 36% in H1CY2017 & BDTI corrected by 44%.Freight rates:
• Crude oil supply increased due to Libya and Nigeria crude output rises and OPEC compliance slumped to 78%, the lowest this year. Global refinery throughput is at one of the highest levels at $80.3 mn b/d in Q2CY17.
Crude Market:
• Product Market demand continues to grow with product imports into Asia and Latin America. Product Market:
• Crude tankers net fleet growth in Y-O-Y H1CY17 is 7.5% and product tankers net fleet growth is 8%Fleet Growth:
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Tankers – Asset Price Movement (5-year old)
Source – Industry Reports
USD mn
8
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
VLCC Suezmax Aframax
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
Q3
2015
Q4
2015
Q1
2016
Q2
2016
Q3
2016
Q4
2016
Q1
2017
Q2
2017
VLCC Suezmax Aframax
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Downward Movements of BDTI & BCTI
9
Source – Industry Reports
400
500
600
700
800
900
1,000
1,100
1,200
1,300
1,400
Au
g-1
2
Dec
-12
Ap
r-1
3
Au
g-1
3
Dec
-13
Ap
r-1
4
Au
g-1
4
Dec
-14
Ap
r-1
5
Au
g-1
5
Dec
-15
Ap
r-1
6
Au
g-1
6
Dec
-16
Ap
r-1
7
Au
g-1
7
Baltic Dirty Tanker Index
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
Au
g-1
2
Dec
-12
Ap
r-1
3
Au
g-1
3
Dec
-13
Ap
r-1
4
Au
g-1
4
Dec
-14
Ap
r-1
5
Au
g-1
5
Dec
-15
Ap
r-1
6
Au
g-1
6
Dec
-16
Ap
r-1
7
Au
g-1
7
Baltic Clean Tanker Index
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Demand exceeding supply although supply increased Q-O-Q
Source – Industry Reports
• In Q2CY17, Crude tankers rates decreased due to slowdown in crude exports
from major producers and due to increased new building deliveries.
• In Q2CY17, Product tanker rates remained steady on account of short-haul
exports from US Gulf and firm growth in Asia & Latin America imports and
Chinese exports of oil products.
million
barrels per day
73
74
75
76
77
78
79
80
81
85
87
89
91
93
95
97
99
2013 Q1
2014
Q2
2014
Q3
2014
Q4
2014
Q1
2015
Q2
2015
Q3
2015
Q4
2015
Q1
2016
Q2
2016
Q3
2016
Q4
2016
Q1
2017
Q2
2017
Supply Demand Refinery Throughput (RHS)
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Crude & Products growth has increased in Q2CY2017 (Y-O-Y)
• Crude: Majority of the demand is principally fuelled by expansion in Non-OECD
Asia (Especially China)
• Products: Gasoil and gasoline demand have increased in Q2CY2017 (Y-O-Y)
Source – Industry Reports
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• Refining margins in Europe and Singapore got a boost from lower crude prices.
Middle distillate and light ends cracks were lower in Europe and US.
• Q2CY2017 global refinery throughput is up by 100 kb/d Y-O-Y at 80.20 mb/d.
Global refinery throughput is at one of the highest levels due
to high capacity utilization in US
Source – Industry Reports
11
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US Crude Oil Imports (‘000 bpd) China Crude Oil Imports (‘000 bpd)
H1FY2017 China importing crude oil at an accelerated rate
13
Source – Industry Reports
7,000
7,200
7,400
7,600
7,800
8,000
8,200
8,400
8,600
8,800
Jan
Feb
Mar
Ap
r
May Jun
Jul
Au
g
Sep
Oct
No
v
De
c
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
3,500
4,200
4,900
5,600
6,300
7,000
7,700
8,400
9,100
9,800
Jan
Feb
Mar
Ap
r
May Jun
Jul
Au
g
Sep
Oct
No
v
Dec
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
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World Fleet Growth – Crude Tankers
Source – Industry Reports
13
Slippage – 24% YTD2017
Tanker Fleet - mn Dwt 27-Jul-17 1-Jan-16 1-Jan-15 1-Jan-14
VLCC 223.73 200.00 193.75 186.13
Suezmax 76.78 71.09 69.68 68.43
Aframax 68.02 64.37 64.15 63.71
Total (80k+) 368.53 335.46 327.58 318.27
Order Book - mn dwt 2017 2018 2019+ Total
Orderbook as % of current fleet 3% 7% 3% 13%
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World Fleet Growth – Product Tankers and VLGC
Source – Industry Reports
14
Slippage (Product) – 34% YTD2017
Fleet - No. of Vessels 27th Jul 2017 1st Jan 2017 1st Jan 2016
VLGC 262 243 199
Order Book - No. of Vessels 2017 2018 2019+ Total
Orderbook as % of current fleet 4% 3% 4% 11%
Product Fleet - mn Dwt 7/27/2017 1-Jan-16 1-Jan-15 1-Jan-14
LR2 36.20 30.44 27.42 26.93
LR1 25.98 23.75 23.72 23.61
MR/Handy (35k+)* 92.45 82.95 78.40 75.74
Total (35k+) 154.63 137.14 129.54 126.28
Order Book - mn dwt 2017 2018 2019+ Total
Orderbook as % of current fleet 4% 4% 3% 11%
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• Capesize 5 year old asset prices rose by 42% in H1CY2017
• Panamax & Supramax 5 year olds asset prices rose by about 25% in H1CY2017
Asset Prices:
• BDI corrected to 830 from 26 months high of 1,338 end of the quarter Q2CY2017 and recovered to 1092 by Aug’17.
Freight rates:
• China total coal imports have risen by 23.4% in H1CY2017 Y-O-YCoal Market:
• China’s Iron Ore imports grew by 9% in H1CY2017 Y-O-Y. China Iron Ore imports from Australia have increased 9-10% Y-O-Y. Brazil Iron Ore imports to China has been stable in H1CY2017 Y-O-Y
Iron Ore Market:
• Dry Bulk net fleet growth in H1CY2017 is approx2.45% YoY.Fleet Growth:
Key points on Dry Bulk Markets – Q2CY17
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Bulkers – Asset Prices (5-year old)
Dry Bulk asset prices rose significantly in H1CY2017
compared to previous 3 halves.
16
Source – Industry Reports
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
Capesize Panamx Supramax
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
Q3
2015
Q4
2015
Q1
2016
Q2
2016
Q3
2016
Q4
2016
Q1
2017
Q2
2017
Capesize Panamax Supramax
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Dry Bulk freight rates has hit 26 months high during H1CY2017
Baltic Dry Index (August 2012 – August 2017)
Baltic Dry Index corrected to 1,092 in Aug’17 from a 26 months high
of 1,338 in Mar’17
17
Source – Industry Reports
2,337
290
1,338
200
700
1,200
1,700
2,200
2,700
Au
g-1
2
Dec
-12
Ap
r-13
Au
g-1
3
Dec
-13
Ap
r-14
Au
g-1
4
Dec
-14
Ap
r-15
Au
g-1
5
Dec
-15
Ap
r-16
Au
g-1
6
Dec
-16
Ap
r-17
Au
g-1
7
Baltic Dry Index
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Steel Production & China’s Iron ore imports have grown significantly
Steel Production increased 5% in H1CY2017 (Y-O-Y)
China’s iron ore import grew 9% in H1CY2017 (Y-O-Y)
18
Source – Industry Reports
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2013 2014 2015 2016 H1CY16 H1CY17
World Steel China Steel % Growth World % Growth China
819932 954 1025
494 539
-300
200
700
1200
2013 2014 2015 2016 H12016 H12017
Australia Brazil Others
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Coal imports by China up by 23% in H1CY2017 (Y-O-Y)
China coal imports change (Y-O-Y)
19
Source – Industry Reports
mt
-15.0
-10.0
-5.0
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
Ju
n-1
5
Ju
l-1
5
Au
g-1
5
Sep
-15
Oct
-15
No
v-1
5
Dec
-15
Ja
n-1
6
Feb
-16
Mar-
16
Ap
r-16
May
-16
Ju
n-1
6
Ju
l-1
6
Au
g-1
6
Sep
-16
Oct
-16
No
v-1
6
Dec
-16
Ja
n-1
7
Feb
-17
Mar-
17
Ap
r-17
May
-17
Ju
n-1
7
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World Fleet Growth – Dry Bulk
Source – Industry Reports
20
Slippage – 34% (YTD 2017)
Fleet - Mn Dwt 27th July 2017 1st Jan 2017 1st Jan 2016
Capesize 323 315 309
Panamax 202 196 195
Handymax 195 189 180
Handysize 95 94 93
Total 815 794 776
Orderbook - mn dwt 2017 2018 2019+ 2020 Total
Gross Orderbook %Fleet 2% 3% 2% 0% 7%
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Scrapping picks up for crude tankers while slows down
for drybulk
Scrapping as % of world fleet (year-wise)
Vessel
Category
Fleet as on Scrapping
Aug 17 YTD 2017 2016 2015 2014
(in mn dwt) (% of beginning fleet)
Crude 370 0.92% 0.35% 0.23% 1.60%
Product 154 0.44% 0.62% 0.61% 1.19%
Dry Bulk 816 1.17% 3.67% 4.03% 2.25%
Source – Industry Reports
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Greatship (India) Limited(a 100% subsidiary)
Business Review
August 2017
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Current Owned Fleet
• 4 Jack Up Rigs (350ft)
• 4 Platform Supply Vessels (PSV)
• 8 Anchor Handling Tug cum Supply
Vessels (AHTSV)
• 2 Multipurpose Platform Supply and
Support Vessels (MPSSV)
• 5 Platform / ROV Support Vessels
(ROVSV)
Offshore business- Fleet Profile
The Greatship Group
Category
Extent of coverage of
fleet's operating days
(per cent)
(FY18)
PSV 29
ROVSV 53
AHTSV 100
MPSSV 61
Jackup Rigs 68
Fleet Utilization
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Day rates:
• Day rates for both AHTS & PSV have come off by ~45%-50% since 2014
Fleet Growth:
• Rigs: Remains flat in Q2CY17
• OSV’s: Remains flat in Q2CY17
Fleet Utilization Levels: Sub 50%
Slippage:
• OSV – 60% - 70% YTD2017
• Rigs – 60% - 70% YTD2017
Key points on E&P markets – Q2CY17
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No signs of recovery in Offshore E&P spending in Q2CY17
Source – Offshore Drilling Market Outlook (DVB),
https://research.dvbbank.com
• Drilling demand has been declining continuously since the peak in 2014
• With the Brent oil price showing signs of stabilization at lower levels, Offshore
E&P spending which had come off significantly since 2014 shows no signs of
recovery yet.
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• Q2CY2017 actual deliveries have been far lower than scheduled. Due to bleak
employment scenario owners have refrained from taking delivery. A lot of deliveries due in
2016 were pushed forward to 2017 and have not yet been delivered. Going forward
slippage is expected to remain high.
• Asset utilization levels have come off significantly. For premium Jack ups, lack of contract
renewals has resulted in utilization levels coming down from around 90% at the start of
2014 to about 60% as on date.
• In case of PSVs and AHTSVs more than half the fleet is either idle/stacked or working in
spot market at a very low utilization.
(Nos) Jackup Rigs AHTSVs PSV
Current Fleet 546 2105 1642
Orderbook 97 133 172
% of O/B to current fleet 18% 6% 10%
Fleet & Orderbook
Global Fleet Supply – Offshore
Source: Rigzone, ODS Petrodata Industry Reports
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FINANCIAL HIGHLIGHTS
Q1 FY 2017-18
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Q1 FY 2017-18 Financial Highlights
Standalone ConsolidatedKey Figures
Q1 FY'18 Q1 FY'17 (Amount in Rs. crs) Q1 FY'18 Q1 FY'17
Income Statement
587.15 477.72 Revenue (including other income) 857.43 889.59
274.01 249.64 EBITDA (including other income) 428.76 526.47
72.35 103.56 Net Profit 103.56 247.82
Balance Sheet
10664.09 9473.50 Total Assets 15160.55 15741.44
5235.51 4713.14 Equity 7316.38 7921.16
4455.17 3403.16 Total Debt (Gross) 6731.88 6239.97
1436.78 117.19 Long Term Debt (Net of Cash) 2481.76 1870.84
Cash Flow
142.86 133.55 From operating activities 228.51 342.08
(133.97) (250.41) From investing activities (164.38) (280.44)
(47.60) 455.62 From financing activities (175.55) 301.99
(38.71) 338.76 Net cash inflow/(outflow) (111.42) 363.63
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Q1 FY 2017-18 Financial Highlights
Standalone ConsolidatedKey Figures
Q1 FY'18 Q1 FY'17 (Amount in Rs. crs) Q1 FY'18 Q1 FY'17
Key financial figures
46.67% 52.26% EBITDA Margin (%) 50.01% 59.18%
5.57% 8.88% Return on Equity (ROE) (%) 5.70% 13.69%
6.27% 7.99% Return on Capital Employed (ROCE) (%) 5.87% 10.13%
0.85 0.72 Gross Debt/Equity Ratio (x) 0.92 0.79
0.27 0.02 Net Debt/Equity Ratio (x) 0.34 0.24
64.49 66.65 Exchange rate USD/INR, average (Rs) 64.49 66.65
64.57 67.52 Exchange rate USD/INR, end of period (Rs) 64.57 67.52
Share related figures
4.80 6.87 Earnings per share, EPS (Rs) 6.87 16.44
4.79 6.86 Diluted earnings per share (Rs) 6.86 16.40
12.48 12.32 Cash Profit per share (Rs) 19.12 26.95
- - Dividend per share (Rs) - -
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Q1 FY 2017-18 Performance HighlightsBreakup of revenue days
Average TCY Details
Mix of Spot & Time
Revenue Days Q1’FY18 Q1’FY17
Owned Tonnage 3,998 2,794
Inchartered Tonnage 77 121
Total Revenue Days 4,075 2,915
Total Owned Tonnage (mn.dwt)* 3.80 2.49
Average (TCY $ per day) Q1’FY18 Q1’FY17 % Chg
Crude Carriers 15,584 25,426 (39)%
Product Carriers (Incl. Gas) 15,432 20,122 (23)%
Dry Bulk 9,166 5,784 58%
* As on 30th June 2017
Days (in %) Q1’FY18 Q1’FY17
Dry Bulk
Spot % 41% 54%
Time % 59% 46%
Tankers
Spot % 60% 54%
Time % 40% 46%
Total
Spot % 54% 54%
Time % 46% 46%
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