Great Salt Lake Integrated Water Resources Management Model (GSLIM)

Krishna Khatri, PhD Engineer, Hydrology and Modeling Section

Utah Division of Water Resources

[Great Salt Lake Advisory Council Meeting]March 13, 2019

Current Status and Future Work

The model evaluation processes: three phases (Aug 2017 to Jan 2019)

FIRST PHASE:

• Report received • Aug 11, 2017: The model and report from Jacobs

• Comments on the report and model• Sep 1, 2017: DWRe shared the comments to FFSL (Utah Division of

Forestry, Fire & State Lands through Laura Vernon)

• Comments discussed with Jacbos• Sept 5, 2017: Model comments were updated to the Jacob’s team

skype call

SECOND PHASE:

• Updated model and report• Jan 19, 2018: Updated model

and report from Jacobs

• Internal meetings and updates • Mar 28, 2018

• Model errors and calibration issues were informed to DFFSL (Laura Vernon)

• FFSL was requested to share the model and evaluate the model with other agencies and the tech. committee memebers

THIRD PHASE:

Joint evaluations with Jacobs (Six Skype Meetings):

• Started on Jul 10, 2018

1) First Skype meeting: Sept 19, 2018

2) Second Skype meeting: Sep 26, 2018

• The updated Calibrated Model on Oct 1, 2018

3) Third skype meeting: Oct 17, 2018

4) Fourth skype meeting: Nov 2, 2018

5) Fifth Skype meeting: Dec 4, 2018

• The extended (Dynamic) Module on Dec 17, 2018

6) Final Skype meeting: Jan 23, 2019

• Discussed on the next steps

Acknowledgements:

JACOBS Team:

• Jeff DenBleyker P.E. – Salt Lake City, Office

• Armin Munevar P.E. – San Diego, California Office

• Paula Silva P.E. – San Diego, California Office

• Kensey Daly – San Diego, California Office

Outline:

• Model features• Model simulation results• Model performances and future work

Outline:

• Model features • Model simulation results• Model performances and future work

GSLIM• How do changes in GSL

and its watersheds impact the lake’s water levels and salinity?

• Modeled on the GoldSimSoftware Platform

Three modules

• River Basin (Integrated) Module

• Wetland and Lake (Dynamic) Module

• Lake (USGS Lake) Module

(1)River Basin Module: Basins, Subareas, & 12 km size grids

6 7 8 9 1 2 3 5411

79 80 81 82

73 74 75 76 77 78 70 71 72

64 65 66 67 68 69 61 62 63

55 56 57 58 59 60 52 53 54

46 47 48 49 50 51 44 45

37 38 39 40 41 42 43 35 36

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10 12

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90 91 92 93 87 88 89

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286 287 288 289 290 291 285279 284280 281 283282

273 274 275 276 277 278 272266 267 271270268 269

259 260 261 262 263 264 265 253 254 258257255 256

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232 233 234 235 236 237 238 239 227 228 229 231230

219 220 221 222 223 224 225 226 214 215 218216 217

206 207 208 209 210 212 213 199 205204200 201 203202

191 192 193 194 195 196 197 198 190184 185 189188186 187

176 177 178 179 180 181 182 183 175169 174170 173171 172

161 162 163 164 165 166 167 168 155 156 160159157 158

140 147 148 149 150 151 152 153 154 141 142 146143 145144

125 132 133 134 135 136 137 138 139 126 131127 128 130129

109 120 121 122 123 124

102 103 104 105 106 107 108 101100

Legend

12 km grid

Subareas

0 10 20 30 405Miles

°

About 55000 km2About 38 Subareas About 305 Grids of 12 km

Grid level: rainfall and runoffSubareas level: water

supply and demand

Integrated Module: Subareas flow diagram

(2) Lake Module and (3) Dynamic Module (Lake and Wetland)

Lake Module Dynamic Module

Both modules: Water and Salt Balance USGS equations

Salt Balance

[USGS WRI Report: 4221]

Model Illustrations

Outline:

• Model features• Model simulation results• Model performances and future work

Five Scenarios Run (Hypothetical): How will lake levels and salinity change in the future (2017 to 2040)?

1. Base scenario: Assuming same historical climatic and water uses observed from 1989 to 2012, and lake levels and salinity recorded on Jan 1st, 2017

2. Temperature increases by 0.50°C

3. Precip. decreases by 1%

4. Temperature increases by 0.50°C & precip. decreases by 1%

5. Population growth @4% of 2010

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Extended Future Year

Integrated Baseline_Future ft 0.50 Deg.Cel Temp Increase ft

Precip decrease by 1% ft 0.50 Deg.Cel Temp & 1% Precp decrease ft

Population increase 4% ft

Base Case

0.5 ° Cincrease

1% Precipdecrease

0.5 ° C & 1% Precip

4% Populn

Min4185.72 4185.26 4185.27 4184.84 4185.70

Max4200.30 4199.50 4198.72 4197.96 4200.32

Mean4192.98 4192.18 4191.66 4190.82 4192.97

Std3.46 3.36 3.18 3.11 3.46

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Ave

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Sample percentile (water year 1950 to 2010)

Normal Probability Plot (Observed data 1950 to 2010)

Mean :4198.60 ftOptimum Lake level?

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Extended Future Year

Integrated Baseline_Future ft 0.50 Deg.Cel Temp Increase ft

Precip decrease by 1% ft 0.50 Deg.Cel Temp & 1% Precp decrease ft

Population increase 4% ft

Salin

ity

(%)

Outline:

• Model features• Model simulation results• Model performances and future work

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Observed GSLIM Lake GSLIM Dynamic

Lake and dynamics modules

R2=0.98 R2=0.97

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GSLIM Lake Calibration GSLIM Dynamic Observed

Old bridge

New bridge

- Update New Bridge hydraulics using data collected since 2017

• Update scenarios: industrial water uses

- Model other water quality parameters and deep brine layers

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Observed GSLIM Integrated

River Basin (Integrated) Module

R2=0.88

- Verify water balance in subareas level incorporating reservoirs, snowmelt and river routing

Precipitation, 36%

Groundwater inflow, 3%

Stream inflows, 61%

GSL Water Balance(UPRR, 2014)

Bear River Basin 58%

Weber River Basin15%

Jordan River Basin 22%

Other 5%

Basin Inflows(Tarboton et al., 2012)

- Update input data (e.g. climate, population growth, and land use changes)

- Update scenarios incorporating important diversions in river basins (e.g. Bear River)

Summary Lake and Dynamic Module: Good performances1. Future climate parameters

2. Bridge hydraulics and bidirectional flows

3. Deep brine layer

4. Sensitivity analyses

5. Scenarios update

River Basin Module: Needs improvement1. Reservoir operation rules, snowpack, and snowmelt analyses2. Subareas water balance analyses and verification3. Sensitivity and errors analyses4. Routing module5. Scenarios update[e.g. Bear River diversion]

Organization supporting the GSLIM

(CH2M , 2017)

IA= implementing agencies

Thank you!

Any questions/comments/suggestions?

Craig Miller, P.E.Manager, Hydrology and Modeling

Candice Hasenyager, P.E.Asst. Director

Todd Adams, P.E.Deputy Director